Roie Yellinek earned his Ph.D. from Bar-Ilan University in Ramat-Gan, Israel. He is a researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute, and an adjunct researcher at the IDF Dado Center. He is a specialist in the growing relationship between the Middle East and China, especially in regards to the soft power component of Chinese diplomacy. He has written extensively on the China-Middle East relationship and is a frequently commentator in local and international media.
In an effort to support its economic growth that has become dependent on external factors, China ... more In an effort to support its economic growth that has become dependent on external factors, China has been ramping up its use of Soft Power Pipelines Diffusion. Due to Iran’s strategic location, rich oil and natural gas reserves and joint opposition to the US hegemony, China has been employing different instruments of Soft Power to gain influence in that country. This article will review and analyse the main expressions of China’s Soft Power pipelines in Iran and examine how they are perceived by the Iranian public. The findings of this study show that while some Iranians view Chinese influence as generally positive, others are more apprehensive and suspicious in their approach, but overall the Iranian know that they need China as an alliance.
This article examines China's media strategy and activities towards Israel, underscoring its rece... more This article examines China's media strategy and activities towards Israel, underscoring its recent increase in intensity. By way of doing so, the article explores Beijing's use of journalism and other Israeli media outlets on the one hand, and the employment of direct Chinese soft power tools, from China Radio International (CRI), to the establishment of Chinese institutes in Israel, to public and media activities of Israel-based Chinese diplomats.
Digital diplomacy is an efficient tool for building close relationships between countries, especi... more Digital diplomacy is an efficient tool for building close relationships between countries, especially when it comes to people-to-people diplomacy (P2P). This article aims to explore how the Iranian embassy in Beijing uses Chinese social media and reveals the motivations and changes in its behaviour. The main finding was that 2019 was a turning point; before 2019, the embassy messages were more informative without targeting specifically its Chinese audience, and since 2019 the messages have been showing deeper understating the local discourse and, therefore, have been more tailored for its Chinese audience. The main reasons for that were the place of Iran in the China-US trade war, the role of the EU in uplifting Iran's status in the international community, and the Ambassadors' characteristics and background, which switched at the end of 2018.
Digital Diplomacy, P2P, People To People, Iran, China, Embassy, Beijing, Social Media, Public Diplomacy
Confucius Institutes are one of the major ways China invests Soft-Power in the world. This paper ... more Confucius Institutes are one of the major ways China invests Soft-Power in the world. This paper will examine the Confucius Institutes in universities in Arabic speaking countries from 2006 to 2020. It will focus on the response and reception of China’s Soft-Power in these countries. An initial index for examining the success of these institutes will be offered, which can also be applied to educational-cultural institutes in general. The following review and analysis of data point to the conclusion that Confucius Institutes, as a tool of Chinese Soft-Power, have effectively penetrated the Arab world and are welcomed without significant criticism.
In September 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping first announced his strategic vision of “One Belt... more In September 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping first announced his strategic vision of “One Belt, One Road” (subsequently renamed the “Belt and Road Initiative” or BRI) during a speech at Nazarbayev University in the Kazakh capital. In essence, the BRI is a massive Chinese project, involving more than 130 countries, over $600 billion in existing commitments, and a total price tag estimated in the trillions of dollars, to redevelop the ancient Silk Road trade routes running between China and Europe. In his speech at Nazarbayev University, Xi suggested that China and Central Asia cooperate to build “the Belt,” the continental part of the Chinese vision, as opposed to “the Road,” the maritime segment. The choice to unveil this enormous project in a country with a relatively low international profile suggests the significance that China attaches to Kazakhstan specifically as well as the broader region in which it is situated. Indeed, Central Asia and the South Caucasus will be a key pa...
Trust is a recurring theme in social-science literature for disciplines as diverse as psychology,... more Trust is a recurring theme in social-science literature for disciplines as diverse as psychology, political science, anthropology, sociology, and management. Recently, the concept has even been studied in neurobiology, behavioral economics, and computer science. In discussing the impact of state responses to Covid-19 on trust in government, one should distinguish between two types of trust: political and social. Political trust refers to the extent to which people have trust in institutions; social trust refers to trust in other people within the community and beyond. While some studies suggest that political and social trust tend to correlate with each other, most studies examine these concepts separately. This article focuses on the impact of Covid-19 on trust in government in the Middle East: political trust in the context of the pandemic.
Trust is a recurring theme in social-science literature for disciplines as diverse as psychology,... more Trust is a recurring theme in social-science literature for disciplines as diverse as psychology, political science, anthropology, sociology, and management. Recently, the concept has even been studied in neurobiology, behavioral economics, and computer science. In discussing the impact of state responses to Covid-19 on trust in government, one should distinguish between two types of trust: political and social. Political trust refers to the extent to which people have trust in institutions; social trust refers to trust in other people within the community and beyond. While some studies suggest that political and social trust tend to correlate with each other, most studies examine these concepts separately. This article focuses on the impact of Covid-19 on trust in government in the Middle East: political trust in the context of the pandemic.
Naftali Bennett found his way to the Israeli prime minister's office, even though his party won o... more Naftali Bennett found his way to the Israeli prime minister's office, even though his party won only six out of 120 seats in the Knesset (the Israeli parliament) in the March 2021 elections. He replaced the country's long-time prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who held the position for a combined total of 12 years and set the tone for Israeli policy, especially in the region. With the new government, formed in June, recently passing the 100-day mark, it is time to ask whether the change in the prime minister's office has resulted in a real change in Israel's regional policy. This question is especially pertinent as Bennett's party, Yamina ("the Right" in Hebrew), with just six seats, gives him less leverage than previous Israeli prime ministers and makes him more reliant on his coalition partners. This may have an advantage, however, as he only needs to serve the interests of a small group of Knesset members.
For the second time in the past two decades, a large number of Afghans find themselves escaping c... more For the second time in the past two decades, a large number of Afghans find themselves escaping chaos. Twenty years ago, it was the American invasion of Afghanistan after the terrorist attacks of 9/11 that caused a large wave of refugees. More recently, the hasty American withdrawal from the country and the ensuing Taliban takeover have created another wave of refugees. The international community now faces another refugee crisis, before it has even recovered from the previous waves from Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Afghanistan, all of which resulted from military conflicts in the region. Further afield, there are also waves of refugees from Myanmar, Venezuela, and other countries. According to the UNHCR, one in every 97 people in the world is now forcibly displaced. As described in an earlier article, the American withdrawal from Afghanistan and the refugee crisis it caused are inextricably linked to the broader competition between the U.S. and China. But the primary destinations for Afghan refugees are first Iran, then Turkey as a waystation, and ultimately the EU as the final stop. Therefore, this article will start with a discussion of the political dynamics in these countries and then move on to the competition between the superpowers. From Afghanistan to Europe Afghanistan shares borders with Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan to the north, Iran to the west, and Pakistan to the east and south. It also has a short border with China to the northeast. Of these countries, the one hosting the most Afghan refugees is Iran, where many pass through en route to Turkey and then Europe. As of today, Iran hosts around 780,000 registered Afghan refugees and 2.3 million undocumented Afghans. Given its own domestic economic woes and the impact of Western sanctions, Iran is in no position to take in more refugees and, in any case, most of those who fled Afghanistan to find a better life are not likely to find it under the Iranian regime. The next stop after Iran, en route to Europe, is Turkey, which itself is also dealing with a massive refugee crisis. It is host to the world's largest refugee population: a total of around 4 million, some 3.6 million of whom are Syrians, as of June 2021, before the American withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The announcement of normalized diplomatic relations between Israel
and the United Arab Emirates (... more The announcement of normalized diplomatic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a significant event in Middle East international politics, marking the first new regional partnership for Israel since Jordan in 1994. This paper uses a levels of analysis approach to examine the domestic, regional, and systemic pressures that influenced leaders in the two countries to make this bold decision. It argues that the pressures at the domestic and systemic levels are important considerations, but the dynamics at play in the Middle East regional security complex are ultimately more important factors in explaining normalization.
There has been an increase to unprecedented levels of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) init... more There has been an increase to unprecedented levels of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) initiatives in Africa and the Middle East, both bilaterally and multilaterally, over the past decade. The push in Africa has been spreading since the establishment of the Forum on China Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Through the BRI, China has similarly strengthened its foothold in the Middle East. In fact, the Heads of State in the Euro-Atlantic area have labelled the stated PRC ambitions and assertive behaviour as a “systemic challenge” to the global order. This paper uses a unique and innovative approach, both from an academic and military perspective, to analysing PRC engagement in these two regions. Firstly, China’s actions within the Diplomatic, Informational, Military and Economic (DIME) domains were investigated. Then, an Alternative Analytical technique, in particular an Alternative Futures analysis, was carried out to identify firstly the composite drivers of China’s activity, and then delineate the four Alternative Futures which would encompass every plausible evolution rather than the most likely scenario. While the DIME framework led to an up-to-date review of the PRC’s use of Instruments of Power (IoP) in Africa and the Middle East, the Alternative Futures analysis identified two composite drivers, ‘economic relevance’ and ‘great powers competition – battle of narratives’. These were then used to generate the four Alternative Futures which focus attention on the key underlying forces and persisting commonalities. From a new ‘Chinese Hegemony’ to an alternate ‘EXIM Bank’ to a ‘Selective Dominance’ approach, all the way to a retreat and return to a ‘Tributary’-type system, these hypothetical futures help to form the boundaries of an analytical ‘sandbox’ which provides fertile ground for future analysis. Several highly interesting conclusions were drawn. Firstly, the DIME analysis demonstrated that the most relevant aspects of PRC engagement are in the economic and diplomatic domains, where it is slowly tightening its grasp on Africa and the Middle East. Secondly, the Alternative Futures analysis demonstrated that the low profile which the PRC adopts, irrespective of the future being addressed, would continue to blur China’s true objectives, thus preserving its ability to manoeuvre below the radar. Thirdly, the PRC will continue its search for allies and use Private Security Companies (PSCs) to a greater or lesser extent. Finally, since the PRC web of partners could evolve either into solid partnerships or leave a gaping vacuum of power, China’s impact would be consistently evident. In short, whether its influence in the regions increases or decreases, whether it augments or diminishes its engagement and whether it supersedes other great powers or disappears into the relative background, the fact that China can have possible destabilizing effects on the African and Middle Eastern scene for some time to come is unquestionable.
Biden's G-7 Infrastructure Plan to Counter China The recently announced U.S.-led G-7 infrastructu... more Biden's G-7 Infrastructure Plan to Counter China The recently announced U.S.-led G-7 infrastructure plan will need to play catch up if it is going to compete with China's more established Belt and Road Initiative.
In an effort to support its economic growth that has become dependent on external factors, China ... more In an effort to support its economic growth that has become dependent on external factors, China has been ramping up its use of Soft Power Pipelines Diffusion. Due to Iran’s strategic location, rich oil and natural gas reserves and joint opposition to the US hegemony, China has been employing different instruments of Soft Power to gain influence in that country. This article will review and analyse the main expressions of China’s Soft Power pipelines in Iran and examine how they are perceived by the Iranian public. The findings of this study show that while some Iranians view Chinese influence as generally positive, others are more apprehensive and suspicious in their approach, but overall the Iranian know that they need China as an alliance.
This article examines China's media strategy and activities towards Israel, underscoring its rece... more This article examines China's media strategy and activities towards Israel, underscoring its recent increase in intensity. By way of doing so, the article explores Beijing's use of journalism and other Israeli media outlets on the one hand, and the employment of direct Chinese soft power tools, from China Radio International (CRI), to the establishment of Chinese institutes in Israel, to public and media activities of Israel-based Chinese diplomats.
Digital diplomacy is an efficient tool for building close relationships between countries, especi... more Digital diplomacy is an efficient tool for building close relationships between countries, especially when it comes to people-to-people diplomacy (P2P). This article aims to explore how the Iranian embassy in Beijing uses Chinese social media and reveals the motivations and changes in its behaviour. The main finding was that 2019 was a turning point; before 2019, the embassy messages were more informative without targeting specifically its Chinese audience, and since 2019 the messages have been showing deeper understating the local discourse and, therefore, have been more tailored for its Chinese audience. The main reasons for that were the place of Iran in the China-US trade war, the role of the EU in uplifting Iran's status in the international community, and the Ambassadors' characteristics and background, which switched at the end of 2018.
Digital Diplomacy, P2P, People To People, Iran, China, Embassy, Beijing, Social Media, Public Diplomacy
Confucius Institutes are one of the major ways China invests Soft-Power in the world. This paper ... more Confucius Institutes are one of the major ways China invests Soft-Power in the world. This paper will examine the Confucius Institutes in universities in Arabic speaking countries from 2006 to 2020. It will focus on the response and reception of China’s Soft-Power in these countries. An initial index for examining the success of these institutes will be offered, which can also be applied to educational-cultural institutes in general. The following review and analysis of data point to the conclusion that Confucius Institutes, as a tool of Chinese Soft-Power, have effectively penetrated the Arab world and are welcomed without significant criticism.
In September 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping first announced his strategic vision of “One Belt... more In September 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping first announced his strategic vision of “One Belt, One Road” (subsequently renamed the “Belt and Road Initiative” or BRI) during a speech at Nazarbayev University in the Kazakh capital. In essence, the BRI is a massive Chinese project, involving more than 130 countries, over $600 billion in existing commitments, and a total price tag estimated in the trillions of dollars, to redevelop the ancient Silk Road trade routes running between China and Europe. In his speech at Nazarbayev University, Xi suggested that China and Central Asia cooperate to build “the Belt,” the continental part of the Chinese vision, as opposed to “the Road,” the maritime segment. The choice to unveil this enormous project in a country with a relatively low international profile suggests the significance that China attaches to Kazakhstan specifically as well as the broader region in which it is situated. Indeed, Central Asia and the South Caucasus will be a key pa...
Trust is a recurring theme in social-science literature for disciplines as diverse as psychology,... more Trust is a recurring theme in social-science literature for disciplines as diverse as psychology, political science, anthropology, sociology, and management. Recently, the concept has even been studied in neurobiology, behavioral economics, and computer science. In discussing the impact of state responses to Covid-19 on trust in government, one should distinguish between two types of trust: political and social. Political trust refers to the extent to which people have trust in institutions; social trust refers to trust in other people within the community and beyond. While some studies suggest that political and social trust tend to correlate with each other, most studies examine these concepts separately. This article focuses on the impact of Covid-19 on trust in government in the Middle East: political trust in the context of the pandemic.
Trust is a recurring theme in social-science literature for disciplines as diverse as psychology,... more Trust is a recurring theme in social-science literature for disciplines as diverse as psychology, political science, anthropology, sociology, and management. Recently, the concept has even been studied in neurobiology, behavioral economics, and computer science. In discussing the impact of state responses to Covid-19 on trust in government, one should distinguish between two types of trust: political and social. Political trust refers to the extent to which people have trust in institutions; social trust refers to trust in other people within the community and beyond. While some studies suggest that political and social trust tend to correlate with each other, most studies examine these concepts separately. This article focuses on the impact of Covid-19 on trust in government in the Middle East: political trust in the context of the pandemic.
Naftali Bennett found his way to the Israeli prime minister's office, even though his party won o... more Naftali Bennett found his way to the Israeli prime minister's office, even though his party won only six out of 120 seats in the Knesset (the Israeli parliament) in the March 2021 elections. He replaced the country's long-time prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who held the position for a combined total of 12 years and set the tone for Israeli policy, especially in the region. With the new government, formed in June, recently passing the 100-day mark, it is time to ask whether the change in the prime minister's office has resulted in a real change in Israel's regional policy. This question is especially pertinent as Bennett's party, Yamina ("the Right" in Hebrew), with just six seats, gives him less leverage than previous Israeli prime ministers and makes him more reliant on his coalition partners. This may have an advantage, however, as he only needs to serve the interests of a small group of Knesset members.
For the second time in the past two decades, a large number of Afghans find themselves escaping c... more For the second time in the past two decades, a large number of Afghans find themselves escaping chaos. Twenty years ago, it was the American invasion of Afghanistan after the terrorist attacks of 9/11 that caused a large wave of refugees. More recently, the hasty American withdrawal from the country and the ensuing Taliban takeover have created another wave of refugees. The international community now faces another refugee crisis, before it has even recovered from the previous waves from Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Afghanistan, all of which resulted from military conflicts in the region. Further afield, there are also waves of refugees from Myanmar, Venezuela, and other countries. According to the UNHCR, one in every 97 people in the world is now forcibly displaced. As described in an earlier article, the American withdrawal from Afghanistan and the refugee crisis it caused are inextricably linked to the broader competition between the U.S. and China. But the primary destinations for Afghan refugees are first Iran, then Turkey as a waystation, and ultimately the EU as the final stop. Therefore, this article will start with a discussion of the political dynamics in these countries and then move on to the competition between the superpowers. From Afghanistan to Europe Afghanistan shares borders with Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan to the north, Iran to the west, and Pakistan to the east and south. It also has a short border with China to the northeast. Of these countries, the one hosting the most Afghan refugees is Iran, where many pass through en route to Turkey and then Europe. As of today, Iran hosts around 780,000 registered Afghan refugees and 2.3 million undocumented Afghans. Given its own domestic economic woes and the impact of Western sanctions, Iran is in no position to take in more refugees and, in any case, most of those who fled Afghanistan to find a better life are not likely to find it under the Iranian regime. The next stop after Iran, en route to Europe, is Turkey, which itself is also dealing with a massive refugee crisis. It is host to the world's largest refugee population: a total of around 4 million, some 3.6 million of whom are Syrians, as of June 2021, before the American withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The announcement of normalized diplomatic relations between Israel
and the United Arab Emirates (... more The announcement of normalized diplomatic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a significant event in Middle East international politics, marking the first new regional partnership for Israel since Jordan in 1994. This paper uses a levels of analysis approach to examine the domestic, regional, and systemic pressures that influenced leaders in the two countries to make this bold decision. It argues that the pressures at the domestic and systemic levels are important considerations, but the dynamics at play in the Middle East regional security complex are ultimately more important factors in explaining normalization.
There has been an increase to unprecedented levels of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) init... more There has been an increase to unprecedented levels of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) initiatives in Africa and the Middle East, both bilaterally and multilaterally, over the past decade. The push in Africa has been spreading since the establishment of the Forum on China Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Through the BRI, China has similarly strengthened its foothold in the Middle East. In fact, the Heads of State in the Euro-Atlantic area have labelled the stated PRC ambitions and assertive behaviour as a “systemic challenge” to the global order. This paper uses a unique and innovative approach, both from an academic and military perspective, to analysing PRC engagement in these two regions. Firstly, China’s actions within the Diplomatic, Informational, Military and Economic (DIME) domains were investigated. Then, an Alternative Analytical technique, in particular an Alternative Futures analysis, was carried out to identify firstly the composite drivers of China’s activity, and then delineate the four Alternative Futures which would encompass every plausible evolution rather than the most likely scenario. While the DIME framework led to an up-to-date review of the PRC’s use of Instruments of Power (IoP) in Africa and the Middle East, the Alternative Futures analysis identified two composite drivers, ‘economic relevance’ and ‘great powers competition – battle of narratives’. These were then used to generate the four Alternative Futures which focus attention on the key underlying forces and persisting commonalities. From a new ‘Chinese Hegemony’ to an alternate ‘EXIM Bank’ to a ‘Selective Dominance’ approach, all the way to a retreat and return to a ‘Tributary’-type system, these hypothetical futures help to form the boundaries of an analytical ‘sandbox’ which provides fertile ground for future analysis. Several highly interesting conclusions were drawn. Firstly, the DIME analysis demonstrated that the most relevant aspects of PRC engagement are in the economic and diplomatic domains, where it is slowly tightening its grasp on Africa and the Middle East. Secondly, the Alternative Futures analysis demonstrated that the low profile which the PRC adopts, irrespective of the future being addressed, would continue to blur China’s true objectives, thus preserving its ability to manoeuvre below the radar. Thirdly, the PRC will continue its search for allies and use Private Security Companies (PSCs) to a greater or lesser extent. Finally, since the PRC web of partners could evolve either into solid partnerships or leave a gaping vacuum of power, China’s impact would be consistently evident. In short, whether its influence in the regions increases or decreases, whether it augments or diminishes its engagement and whether it supersedes other great powers or disappears into the relative background, the fact that China can have possible destabilizing effects on the African and Middle Eastern scene for some time to come is unquestionable.
Biden's G-7 Infrastructure Plan to Counter China The recently announced U.S.-led G-7 infrastructu... more Biden's G-7 Infrastructure Plan to Counter China The recently announced U.S.-led G-7 infrastructure plan will need to play catch up if it is going to compete with China's more established Belt and Road Initiative.
China has taken several actions relating to the Middle East since the beginning of 2016 that sugg... more China has taken several actions relating to the Middle East since the beginning of 2016 that suggest a new approach to the region. The Chinese president visited the Middle East, a new law was passed permitting China to be involved in military action beyond its own borders, and a new Chinese forum was established to promote peace in the region. These actions represent a departure from the traditional Chinese stance of “non-interference” and reflect a change in China’s perception of the region.
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Papers by Roie Yellinek
Digital Diplomacy, P2P, People To People, Iran, China, Embassy, Beijing, Social Media, Public Diplomacy
and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a significant event in Middle
East international politics, marking the first new regional partnership
for Israel since Jordan in 1994. This paper uses a levels of analysis
approach to examine the domestic, regional, and systemic pressures
that influenced leaders in the two countries to make this bold decision. It argues that the pressures at the domestic and systemic levels
are important considerations, but the dynamics at play in the Middle
East regional security complex are ultimately more important factors
in explaining normalization.
This paper uses a unique and innovative approach, both from an academic and military perspective, to analysing PRC engagement in these two regions. Firstly, China’s actions within the Diplomatic, Informational, Military and Economic (DIME) domains were investigated. Then, an Alternative Analytical technique, in particular an Alternative Futures analysis, was carried out to identify firstly the composite drivers of China’s activity, and then delineate the four Alternative Futures which would encompass every plausible evolution rather than the most likely scenario.
While the DIME framework led to an up-to-date review of the PRC’s use of Instruments of Power (IoP) in Africa and the Middle East, the Alternative Futures analysis identified two composite drivers, ‘economic relevance’ and ‘great powers competition – battle of narratives’. These were then used to generate the four Alternative Futures which focus attention on the key underlying forces and persisting commonalities. From a new ‘Chinese Hegemony’ to an alternate ‘EXIM Bank’ to a ‘Selective Dominance’ approach, all the way to a retreat and return to a ‘Tributary’-type system, these hypothetical futures help to form the boundaries of an analytical ‘sandbox’ which provides fertile ground for future analysis.
Several highly interesting conclusions were drawn. Firstly, the DIME analysis demonstrated that the most relevant aspects of PRC engagement are in the economic and diplomatic domains, where it is slowly tightening its grasp on Africa and the Middle East. Secondly, the Alternative Futures analysis demonstrated that the low profile which the PRC adopts, irrespective of the future being addressed, would continue to blur China’s true objectives, thus preserving its ability to manoeuvre below the radar. Thirdly, the PRC will continue its search for allies and use Private Security Companies (PSCs) to a greater or lesser extent. Finally, since the PRC web of partners could evolve either into solid partnerships or leave a gaping vacuum of power, China’s impact would be consistently evident.
In short, whether its influence in the regions increases or decreases, whether it augments or diminishes its engagement and whether it supersedes other great powers or disappears into the relative background, the fact that China can have possible destabilizing effects on the African and Middle Eastern scene for some time to come is unquestionable.
Digital Diplomacy, P2P, People To People, Iran, China, Embassy, Beijing, Social Media, Public Diplomacy
and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a significant event in Middle
East international politics, marking the first new regional partnership
for Israel since Jordan in 1994. This paper uses a levels of analysis
approach to examine the domestic, regional, and systemic pressures
that influenced leaders in the two countries to make this bold decision. It argues that the pressures at the domestic and systemic levels
are important considerations, but the dynamics at play in the Middle
East regional security complex are ultimately more important factors
in explaining normalization.
This paper uses a unique and innovative approach, both from an academic and military perspective, to analysing PRC engagement in these two regions. Firstly, China’s actions within the Diplomatic, Informational, Military and Economic (DIME) domains were investigated. Then, an Alternative Analytical technique, in particular an Alternative Futures analysis, was carried out to identify firstly the composite drivers of China’s activity, and then delineate the four Alternative Futures which would encompass every plausible evolution rather than the most likely scenario.
While the DIME framework led to an up-to-date review of the PRC’s use of Instruments of Power (IoP) in Africa and the Middle East, the Alternative Futures analysis identified two composite drivers, ‘economic relevance’ and ‘great powers competition – battle of narratives’. These were then used to generate the four Alternative Futures which focus attention on the key underlying forces and persisting commonalities. From a new ‘Chinese Hegemony’ to an alternate ‘EXIM Bank’ to a ‘Selective Dominance’ approach, all the way to a retreat and return to a ‘Tributary’-type system, these hypothetical futures help to form the boundaries of an analytical ‘sandbox’ which provides fertile ground for future analysis.
Several highly interesting conclusions were drawn. Firstly, the DIME analysis demonstrated that the most relevant aspects of PRC engagement are in the economic and diplomatic domains, where it is slowly tightening its grasp on Africa and the Middle East. Secondly, the Alternative Futures analysis demonstrated that the low profile which the PRC adopts, irrespective of the future being addressed, would continue to blur China’s true objectives, thus preserving its ability to manoeuvre below the radar. Thirdly, the PRC will continue its search for allies and use Private Security Companies (PSCs) to a greater or lesser extent. Finally, since the PRC web of partners could evolve either into solid partnerships or leave a gaping vacuum of power, China’s impact would be consistently evident.
In short, whether its influence in the regions increases or decreases, whether it augments or diminishes its engagement and whether it supersedes other great powers or disappears into the relative background, the fact that China can have possible destabilizing effects on the African and Middle Eastern scene for some time to come is unquestionable.