Abstract This paper extends an earlier study to compare two methods for meta-analysis of economi... more Abstract This paper extends an earlier study to compare two methods for meta-analysis of economic data: fixed-effect models and random-effects models. The models differ fundamentally in the ability to generalize beyond the sample in question. Both models are applied to estimates of pass-through rates for excise taxes on alcohol beverages. Using best-set data from 30 primary studies, weighted means are first reported and compared against a fully-passed tax or rate of unity. Dispersion and heterogeneity statistics are used to assess the performance of each model. Second, means and dispersion statistics are reported by subgroups for country source, beverage (beer, wine-spirits), and published status. Third, tests are conducted for publication selection bias using funnel plots and regression asymmetry tests. Fourth, three procedures are undertaken to reduce selection bias: trim-and-fill; cumulative meta-analysis; and meta-regressions. Three conclusions are reached in the paper. First, average pass-through rates are approximately unity regardless of beverage. Primary researchers should compare estimated rates against this value. Second, a random-effects model is more appropriate for these data, reflecting highly diverse estimates of pass-through rates. Third, greater attention needs to be given to the choice of model for meta-regressions in economics and related disciplines.
... empirical studies exclude demographic variables and use annual data on aggregate advertising ... more ... empirical studies exclude demographic variables and use annual data on aggregate advertising expenditures and consumption for individual beverages (Lee and Tremblay 1992; Goel and Morey 1995), total consumption of ethanol (Duffy 1990; Nelson and Moran 1995), and ...
... EconPapers has moved to http://EconPapers.repec.org! Please update your bookmarks. Advertisin... more ... EconPapers has moved to http://EconPapers.repec.org! Please update your bookmarks. Advertising and US Alcoholic Beverage Demand: System-Wide Estimates. Jon P. Nelson () and John R Moran. Applied Economics, 1995, vol. 27, issue 12, pages 1225-36. ...
Fifteen states have state monopolies to regulate the retail distribution of distilled spirits or ... more Fifteen states have state monopolies to regulate the retail distribution of distilled spirits or wine. One objective of state ownership is the reduction of consumption. However, previous research supports both no effect and a negative effect of state monopoly (control) states on consumption. Using improved data on prices, this paper provides a mixture of classical and Bayesian estimates of beverage-specific demand functions. The analysis is carried out at the state level for the year 1982. Independent variables include the real own-price, substitute prices, income, tourism activity, religious sentiment, youth proxy, and several regulatory measures including monopoly control, bans on price advertising, minimum legal drinking age, and restrictions on the number and type of retail outlets. The results indicate no direct effect of monopoly control on consumption that is separate from effects manifested by higher prices or, for beer, limited outlets. Furthermore, average prices are not significantly greater in the monopoly states. Several possible explanations are advanced to explain these results, including the likelihood that the higher transaction costs in the monopoly states are a tax on consumption of alcohol.
During the 1980s, per capita consumption of absolute ethanol in the U.S. declined by 14 percent. ... more During the 1980s, per capita consumption of absolute ethanol in the U.S. declined by 14 percent. In 1979, consumption was 2.94 gallons per capita compared to 2.52 gallons in 1989. The objective of this paper is to explain the decline in consumption, both for total ethanol and by beverage. The historical growth of ethanol demand is decomposed into several components, with emphasis on the role of relative prices, real income, and demographic factors. Using the Rotterdam model of a demand system, I first estimate the conditional demand for ethanol for each of the three beverages (beer, wine, distilled spirits). Second, I estimate the composite demand for total ethanol. Both sets of estimates are obtained using quarterly data for the period 1974–90. The estimates are tested for conformity with the theoretical restrictions of homogeneity, symmetry, and negativity. The decomposition analysis indicates a positive net effect for the combined impact of autonomous trend, real income growth, and relative price changes, both for total ethanol and each of the three beverages. The negative growth of per capita ethanol consumption is attributable to an increase in the proportion of the population aged 65 and over and a simultaneous decline in the proportion of the population aged 18–29.
Using a panel of 45 states for the period 1982–1997,this study analyzes the importance of several... more Using a panel of 45 states for the period 1982–1997,this study analyzes the importance of severalrestrictive alcohol regulations, including advertising bans for billboards, bans of price advertising, state monopoly control of retail stores, and changes in the minimum legal drinking age. In contrast to previous research, the study allows for substitution among beverages as a response to a regulation that targets a specific beverage. A restrictive law that applies only to one beverage (or one form of advertising) can result in substitution toward other beverages (or non-banned media). Allowing for substitution means that the net effect on total alcohol consumption is uncertain, and must be determined empirically. The empirical results demonstrate that monopoly control of spirits reduces consumption of that beverage, and increases consumption of wine. The effect on beer is positive, but is not statistically significant. The net effect on total alcohol is significantly negative. Higher minimum legal drinking age laws have negative effects on beverage and total alcohol consumption. Bans of advertising do not reduce total alcohol consumption, which partly reflects substitution effects. The study thus demonstrates the possible unintended consequences of restrictive alcohol regulations.
Beer advertising is a topic that has frequently attracted the attention of industrial organizatio... more Beer advertising is a topic that has frequently attracted the attention of industrial organization economists. This update reviews major events, data trends, and research for each of three issues: (1) the importance of advertising and product differentiation for structural change in the brewing industry; (2) the manner and extent to which brewers can strategically alter market shares using advertising; and (3) the social costs of beer advertising and marketing, including advertising bans, targeting of underage youth, and recent changes in the three-tier system of alcohol distribution. Major legal decisions pertaining to commercial speech and other regulations also are discussed.
Following the repeal of Prohibition in 1933, the task of regulating the distribution and consumpt... more Following the repeal of Prohibition in 1933, the task of regulating the distribution and consumption of alcoholic beverages was left primarily to the states. Each state established its own system of control, but certain common features were broadly shared. All states set a minimum legal drinking age, ranging from 18–21. All states enacted special excise taxes on alcoholic beverages and most placed restrictions on advertising, hours of legal sale, number and type of outlets, local “dry area” options, and so forth. Eighteen states have chosen to create state monopolies to control wholesale distribution and (except in Mississippi and Wyoming) retail prices of one or more beverage types.* In the remaining 32 states and the District of Colurn.
Nelson investigated advertising placements for a diverse sample of 28 magazines and concluded tha... more Nelson investigated advertising placements for a diverse sample of 28 magazines and concluded that targeting of underage youth by alcohol advertisers was not occurring. Siegel et al. claim that my results suffer from collinearity, but fail to present a comprehensive measure of multicollinearity. For my model, variance inflation factors are within acceptable limits and estimation using redefined variables does not alter my prior results or conclusion. Further, Siegel et al.’s empirical results are fragile and do not support a targeting outcome. I also discuss the limitations of estimates of magazine readerships and the shortcomings of the public health literature on advertising and youth alcohol behaviors. Neither the empirical results in Siegel et al. nor their literature citations support a public policy based on a simple rule of disproportionate exposure. (JEL L82, L66, M37)
This paper estimates linear probability models for drinking prevalence and binge drinking by yout... more This paper estimates linear probability models for drinking prevalence and binge drinking by youth, young adults, and adults by using state-level estimates for 1999–2003 from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health. The regression models contain explanatory variables for economic influences (alcohol taxes, outlet density, income), demographics, and regulatory variables. The main results are, first, a positive relationship exists among youth and adult alcohol behaviors. Second, state-to-state variation in real beer taxes does not negatively affect youth behaviors. Third, higher outlet densities positively affect behaviors by young adults and adults, but do not affect youth. Fourth, several regulatory variables have a negative effect on drinking prevalence and bingeing by youth and young adults, including state liquor monopolies, Sunday closing laws, and 0.08 BAC laws for drunk driving. Fifth, attendance at sports events does not increase drinking prevalence or bingeing.
Abstract This paper extends an earlier study to compare two methods for meta-analysis of economi... more Abstract This paper extends an earlier study to compare two methods for meta-analysis of economic data: fixed-effect models and random-effects models. The models differ fundamentally in the ability to generalize beyond the sample in question. Both models are applied to estimates of pass-through rates for excise taxes on alcohol beverages. Using best-set data from 30 primary studies, weighted means are first reported and compared against a fully-passed tax or rate of unity. Dispersion and heterogeneity statistics are used to assess the performance of each model. Second, means and dispersion statistics are reported by subgroups for country source, beverage (beer, wine-spirits), and published status. Third, tests are conducted for publication selection bias using funnel plots and regression asymmetry tests. Fourth, three procedures are undertaken to reduce selection bias: trim-and-fill; cumulative meta-analysis; and meta-regressions. Three conclusions are reached in the paper. First, average pass-through rates are approximately unity regardless of beverage. Primary researchers should compare estimated rates against this value. Second, a random-effects model is more appropriate for these data, reflecting highly diverse estimates of pass-through rates. Third, greater attention needs to be given to the choice of model for meta-regressions in economics and related disciplines.
... empirical studies exclude demographic variables and use annual data on aggregate advertising ... more ... empirical studies exclude demographic variables and use annual data on aggregate advertising expenditures and consumption for individual beverages (Lee and Tremblay 1992; Goel and Morey 1995), total consumption of ethanol (Duffy 1990; Nelson and Moran 1995), and ...
... EconPapers has moved to http://EconPapers.repec.org! Please update your bookmarks. Advertisin... more ... EconPapers has moved to http://EconPapers.repec.org! Please update your bookmarks. Advertising and US Alcoholic Beverage Demand: System-Wide Estimates. Jon P. Nelson () and John R Moran. Applied Economics, 1995, vol. 27, issue 12, pages 1225-36. ...
Fifteen states have state monopolies to regulate the retail distribution of distilled spirits or ... more Fifteen states have state monopolies to regulate the retail distribution of distilled spirits or wine. One objective of state ownership is the reduction of consumption. However, previous research supports both no effect and a negative effect of state monopoly (control) states on consumption. Using improved data on prices, this paper provides a mixture of classical and Bayesian estimates of beverage-specific demand functions. The analysis is carried out at the state level for the year 1982. Independent variables include the real own-price, substitute prices, income, tourism activity, religious sentiment, youth proxy, and several regulatory measures including monopoly control, bans on price advertising, minimum legal drinking age, and restrictions on the number and type of retail outlets. The results indicate no direct effect of monopoly control on consumption that is separate from effects manifested by higher prices or, for beer, limited outlets. Furthermore, average prices are not significantly greater in the monopoly states. Several possible explanations are advanced to explain these results, including the likelihood that the higher transaction costs in the monopoly states are a tax on consumption of alcohol.
During the 1980s, per capita consumption of absolute ethanol in the U.S. declined by 14 percent. ... more During the 1980s, per capita consumption of absolute ethanol in the U.S. declined by 14 percent. In 1979, consumption was 2.94 gallons per capita compared to 2.52 gallons in 1989. The objective of this paper is to explain the decline in consumption, both for total ethanol and by beverage. The historical growth of ethanol demand is decomposed into several components, with emphasis on the role of relative prices, real income, and demographic factors. Using the Rotterdam model of a demand system, I first estimate the conditional demand for ethanol for each of the three beverages (beer, wine, distilled spirits). Second, I estimate the composite demand for total ethanol. Both sets of estimates are obtained using quarterly data for the period 1974–90. The estimates are tested for conformity with the theoretical restrictions of homogeneity, symmetry, and negativity. The decomposition analysis indicates a positive net effect for the combined impact of autonomous trend, real income growth, and relative price changes, both for total ethanol and each of the three beverages. The negative growth of per capita ethanol consumption is attributable to an increase in the proportion of the population aged 65 and over and a simultaneous decline in the proportion of the population aged 18–29.
Using a panel of 45 states for the period 1982–1997,this study analyzes the importance of several... more Using a panel of 45 states for the period 1982–1997,this study analyzes the importance of severalrestrictive alcohol regulations, including advertising bans for billboards, bans of price advertising, state monopoly control of retail stores, and changes in the minimum legal drinking age. In contrast to previous research, the study allows for substitution among beverages as a response to a regulation that targets a specific beverage. A restrictive law that applies only to one beverage (or one form of advertising) can result in substitution toward other beverages (or non-banned media). Allowing for substitution means that the net effect on total alcohol consumption is uncertain, and must be determined empirically. The empirical results demonstrate that monopoly control of spirits reduces consumption of that beverage, and increases consumption of wine. The effect on beer is positive, but is not statistically significant. The net effect on total alcohol is significantly negative. Higher minimum legal drinking age laws have negative effects on beverage and total alcohol consumption. Bans of advertising do not reduce total alcohol consumption, which partly reflects substitution effects. The study thus demonstrates the possible unintended consequences of restrictive alcohol regulations.
Beer advertising is a topic that has frequently attracted the attention of industrial organizatio... more Beer advertising is a topic that has frequently attracted the attention of industrial organization economists. This update reviews major events, data trends, and research for each of three issues: (1) the importance of advertising and product differentiation for structural change in the brewing industry; (2) the manner and extent to which brewers can strategically alter market shares using advertising; and (3) the social costs of beer advertising and marketing, including advertising bans, targeting of underage youth, and recent changes in the three-tier system of alcohol distribution. Major legal decisions pertaining to commercial speech and other regulations also are discussed.
Following the repeal of Prohibition in 1933, the task of regulating the distribution and consumpt... more Following the repeal of Prohibition in 1933, the task of regulating the distribution and consumption of alcoholic beverages was left primarily to the states. Each state established its own system of control, but certain common features were broadly shared. All states set a minimum legal drinking age, ranging from 18–21. All states enacted special excise taxes on alcoholic beverages and most placed restrictions on advertising, hours of legal sale, number and type of outlets, local “dry area” options, and so forth. Eighteen states have chosen to create state monopolies to control wholesale distribution and (except in Mississippi and Wyoming) retail prices of one or more beverage types.* In the remaining 32 states and the District of Colurn.
Nelson investigated advertising placements for a diverse sample of 28 magazines and concluded tha... more Nelson investigated advertising placements for a diverse sample of 28 magazines and concluded that targeting of underage youth by alcohol advertisers was not occurring. Siegel et al. claim that my results suffer from collinearity, but fail to present a comprehensive measure of multicollinearity. For my model, variance inflation factors are within acceptable limits and estimation using redefined variables does not alter my prior results or conclusion. Further, Siegel et al.’s empirical results are fragile and do not support a targeting outcome. I also discuss the limitations of estimates of magazine readerships and the shortcomings of the public health literature on advertising and youth alcohol behaviors. Neither the empirical results in Siegel et al. nor their literature citations support a public policy based on a simple rule of disproportionate exposure. (JEL L82, L66, M37)
This paper estimates linear probability models for drinking prevalence and binge drinking by yout... more This paper estimates linear probability models for drinking prevalence and binge drinking by youth, young adults, and adults by using state-level estimates for 1999–2003 from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health. The regression models contain explanatory variables for economic influences (alcohol taxes, outlet density, income), demographics, and regulatory variables. The main results are, first, a positive relationship exists among youth and adult alcohol behaviors. Second, state-to-state variation in real beer taxes does not negatively affect youth behaviors. Third, higher outlet densities positively affect behaviors by young adults and adults, but do not affect youth. Fourth, several regulatory variables have a negative effect on drinking prevalence and bingeing by youth and young adults, including state liquor monopolies, Sunday closing laws, and 0.08 BAC laws for drunk driving. Fifth, attendance at sports events does not increase drinking prevalence or bingeing.
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