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Ali Bakeer

Qatar University, Ibn Khaldon Center for Humanities and Social Sciences, (R) Assistant Professor

Beirut Arab University, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Alumnus

Lebanese University, Law and Political and Administrative Sciences, Alumnus

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Dr. Ali BAKIR is a research assistant professor in Ibn Khaldon Center for Humanities and Social Sciences at Qatar University.
He is also a political risk analyst and consultant with more than a decade of professional experience working with senior officials, decision makers, and stakeholders for governmental, non-governmental, and private sector institutions in countries across the MENA region.
Dr. Bakir follows geopolitical and security trends in the Middle East, great power politics, small states behavior, emerging unconventional risks and threats with a special focus on Turkey’s foreign and defense policies, Turkey-Arab and Turkey-Gulf relations.  
He is a distinguished TV commentator in the Arab world and analyst on the foreign policies of Turkey, GCC countries, and Iran.
He writes regularly for several Arabic, English, and Turkish platforms.  He has recently contributed to English-language outlets including: The National Interest, Al-Jazeera English, Middle East Institute, The Atlantic Council, Sada-Carnegie Endowment MEC, Al-Monitor, InsideArabia, The New Arab, TRT World, Gulf International Forum, Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Responsible Statecraft, Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy , among others.
Dr. Bakir has been quoted by several international news agencies and newspapers such as: Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Financial Times (FT), L'Oreal, AP, AFP, Reuters, Bloomberg. He has been featured as an expert at a variety of international conferences and workshops including the ones held by RAND, Brookings-Doha, Carnegie Endowment MEC, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) among others.
Dr. Bakir has a PhD in political science/international relations from Beirut Arab University. He recently contributed to a book chapter on the "Evolution of Turkey-Qatar Relations Amid a Growing Gulf Divide" published by Palgrave, “Qatar's Libya Policy in the Aftermath of the Anti-Qaddafi Revolution” published by SETA, and “The GCC- US Relationship: An era of decline” published by Ortadoğu Yayınları.
Address: Ankara - Turkey

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Analyses by Ali Bakeer

Turquie-Égypte : les raisons du nouveau rapprochement diplomatique

Sur le plan politique, il est vital pour la Turquie d’empêcher quel’Égypte soit otage d’autres Ét... more

Turkey-Egypt relations: What's behind their new diplomatic push

Either Egypt wants to score tactical gains by using Ankara to regain its own value in the eyes of... more

The UAE wants to normalise relations with Turkey. Is it genuine?

Abu Dhabi is suddenly prioritising the need to improve relations with Ankara, but it has long way... more

Turkey's Relations with Iran and Iraq: It's Complicated!

Succinctly stated, Turkey’s relations with Iraq and Iran, (the largest of its numerous neighborin... more Succinctly stated, Turkey’s relations with Iraq and Iran, (the largest of its numerous neighboring countries) have not been easy. To Turkish officials, the two countries have been a central source of regional instability since at least the Iran-Iraq war, which lasted from 1980-1988. While the relationship between Iran and Turkey has oscillated between cooperation and competition, security concerns have overshadowed Iraq-Turkey relations for a long period of time. From the vantage point in Ankara, the presence of PKK fighters stationed in the Qandil mountains (which at times have launched cross-border attacks on Turkey) justifies the perception that Iraq represents a security threat.

https://gulfif.org/turkeys-relations-with-iran-and-iraq-its-complicated/

A Strained Relationship: the Complexities of Turkish-Gulf Relations

On October 7, 2020, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan paid a one-day working visit to Kuwai... more On October 7, 2020, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan paid a one-day working visit to Kuwait and Qatar. In Kuwait, he met the new Emir, Sheikh Nawaf al-Ahmad al-Sabah, to convey his condolences over the death of the Emir’s predecessor and half-brother, Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmed al-Jaber al-Sabah. Shortly afterward, President Erdogan had a one-hour meeting with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani in Doha to discuss the strategic bilateral relations between Turkey and Qatar.

https://gulfif.org/a-strained-relationship-the-complexities-of-turkish-gulf-relations/

اللعبة الكبرى-جيوبوليتيك التنافس على الغاز شرق المتوسط

The Evolution of Turkey Qatar Relations Amid a Growing Gulf Divide

Targeting the Revolutionary Guard: Why Iran’s blame game is not the answer .pdf

The Iranian government seems to show no interest in confronting the failures of its policies or b... more The Iranian government seems to show no interest in confronting the failures of its policies or bearing responsibility for their outcomes. While this blame game may succeed in deflecting attention from Iran’s internal problems, it is not a sustainable solution. Such policies will only exacerbate matters and will have dire consequences in the long run, both domestically and internationally, heightening tensions between Iran, its neighbors, and the international community.

https://www.mei.edu/publications/targeting-revolutionary-guard-why-irans-blame-game-not-answer

Testing the Turkey-Qatar military partnership.pdf

Privatised Turkish arms manufacturing, with significant Qatari investment brings both opportuniti... more

Bashar al-Assad and the Greater Arab World

Yet as the Syrian crisis enters a new phase and moves closer to the “post-conflict” period, the q... more Yet as the Syrian crisis enters a new phase and moves closer to the “post-conflict” period, the question of Assad’s legitimacy and the extent to which Damascus has become subservient to Tehran will continue to complicate the prospects for Syria returning to the Arab League.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/syriasource/bashar-al-assad-and-the-greater-arab-world

Deepening the Ankara–Doha Alliance

Qatar’s pledge of aid to Turkey has deepened the two countries’ alliance, even as Turkish officia... more

The Price of Saudi Arabia’s Anti-Canada Campaign

by Ali Bakeer and Giorgio Cafiero

Saudi Arabia’s spat with Canada aims to rally nationalist sentiment among citizens, but has made ... more

Hezbollah's Finances are Its Achilles' Heel

Fighting Hezbollah is not only a military competition, but a financial one. https://nationalinte... more

Assad’s Comeback? A Lebanese Perspective- Ali Bakeer

Lebanon fears the return of the Assad regime to the regional and international arena, and thus it... more

America’s MESA Delusion

Second, the supposed members of MESA do not share the same threat perception. In fact, they might... more Second, the supposed members of MESA do not share the same threat perception. In fact, they might be afraid of each other more than any other possible threats such as Iran, radicalism, or terrorism. Just less than two years ago, at least two members (Saudi Arabia, UAE) of this initiative were reportedly on the verge of invading another member, Qatar. Noting that many members of this expected alliance (UAE, Bahrain, Egypt etc.) are normalizing relations with Assad regime, the oldest standing ally of Iran in the region; they seem more interested in countering Turkey then Iran.

https://thenewturkey.org/americas-mesa-delusion

Qatar Leaving OPEC is More About Independence

By leaving OPEC, Doha managed to highlight again the negative implications of the Saudi foreign p... more

Why did the UAE and Bahrain re-open their embassies in Syria?

However, the explanation UAE and Bahrain offered - that they reopened the embassies to curb Iran'... more

Debunking Trumpʼs Myths on Saudi Arabia ! "- Opinion

In order to justify his position, the U.S. President diluted his blunt defense of MbS by referrin... more

السودان محطة جديدة لقواعد تركيا العسكرية المتقدّمة .pdf

لتركيا اليوم قواعد عسكرية في قبرص، والعراق، وسوريا، وقطر. ويحظى الصومال بأكبر قاعدة تدريب عسكرية ... more لتركيا اليوم قواعد عسكرية في قبرص، والعراق، وسوريا، وقطر. ويحظى الصومال بأكبر قاعدة تدريب عسكرية تركية على الإطلاق. وفي هذا السياق، تشير بعض المصادر الى انّ الزيارة الأخيرة لوزير الدفاع التركي الى السودان شملت أيضاً بحث إقامة قواعد عسكرية للتدريب.
تتيح هذه القواعد العسكرية المتقدمة بناء شراكات دفاعية وأمنيّة بين تركيا والدول المستضيفة، فهي تعزز الثقة المتبادلة وتسمح بتطوير قدرات الشركاء على مستوى مكافحة الإرهاب والجهوزية الدفاعية في منطقة ممتلئة بالصراعات، كما تسمح برد فعل أسرع إزاء التهديدات المتعاظمة، وتؤمّن منطقة نفوذ متزايدة لتركيا ومنافع للدولة المستضيفة على اعتبار انها تأتي ضمن سياق أوسع يشمل شراكات سياسية واقتصادية أيضاً، وتزايد الانخراط التركي تأكيد إضافي على أنّ الشراكة الناشئة مع تركيا ستترك منافع اقتصادية أيضاً للجانب السوداني.
https://alqabas.com/601444/

Will Geopolitical Instability Strengthen Omani-Turkish Relations

For Ankara, the problematic GCC crisis may have done some additional damage to Turkey’s relations... more For Ankara, the problematic GCC crisis may have done some additional damage to Turkey’s relations with the blockading countries, but the dispute may also create new opportunities. Oman’s geopolitical position can serve as a gateway for Ankara to huge markets in southeast Asia and Africa at a time in which the Turks are seeking to discover new markets and increase their exports. But whether the two parties will manage to capitalize on the current geopolitical shifts in the Gulf to their benefit remains to be seen.

https://www.sharqforum.org/2018/10/05/will-geopolitical-instability-strengthen-omani-turkish-relations/

Turquie-Égypte : les raisons du nouveau rapprochement diplomatique

Sur le plan politique, il est vital pour la Turquie d’empêcher quel’Égypte soit otage d’autres Ét... more

Turkey-Egypt relations: What's behind their new diplomatic push

Either Egypt wants to score tactical gains by using Ankara to regain its own value in the eyes of... more

The UAE wants to normalise relations with Turkey. Is it genuine?

Abu Dhabi is suddenly prioritising the need to improve relations with Ankara, but it has long way... more

Turkey's Relations with Iran and Iraq: It's Complicated!

Succinctly stated, Turkey’s relations with Iraq and Iran, (the largest of its numerous neighborin... more Succinctly stated, Turkey’s relations with Iraq and Iran, (the largest of its numerous neighboring countries) have not been easy. To Turkish officials, the two countries have been a central source of regional instability since at least the Iran-Iraq war, which lasted from 1980-1988. While the relationship between Iran and Turkey has oscillated between cooperation and competition, security concerns have overshadowed Iraq-Turkey relations for a long period of time. From the vantage point in Ankara, the presence of PKK fighters stationed in the Qandil mountains (which at times have launched cross-border attacks on Turkey) justifies the perception that Iraq represents a security threat.

https://gulfif.org/turkeys-relations-with-iran-and-iraq-its-complicated/

A Strained Relationship: the Complexities of Turkish-Gulf Relations

On October 7, 2020, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan paid a one-day working visit to Kuwai... more On October 7, 2020, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan paid a one-day working visit to Kuwait and Qatar. In Kuwait, he met the new Emir, Sheikh Nawaf al-Ahmad al-Sabah, to convey his condolences over the death of the Emir’s predecessor and half-brother, Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmed al-Jaber al-Sabah. Shortly afterward, President Erdogan had a one-hour meeting with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani in Doha to discuss the strategic bilateral relations between Turkey and Qatar.

https://gulfif.org/a-strained-relationship-the-complexities-of-turkish-gulf-relations/

اللعبة الكبرى-جيوبوليتيك التنافس على الغاز شرق المتوسط

The Evolution of Turkey Qatar Relations Amid a Growing Gulf Divide

Targeting the Revolutionary Guard: Why Iran’s blame game is not the answer .pdf

The Iranian government seems to show no interest in confronting the failures of its policies or b... more The Iranian government seems to show no interest in confronting the failures of its policies or bearing responsibility for their outcomes. While this blame game may succeed in deflecting attention from Iran’s internal problems, it is not a sustainable solution. Such policies will only exacerbate matters and will have dire consequences in the long run, both domestically and internationally, heightening tensions between Iran, its neighbors, and the international community.

https://www.mei.edu/publications/targeting-revolutionary-guard-why-irans-blame-game-not-answer

Testing the Turkey-Qatar military partnership.pdf

Privatised Turkish arms manufacturing, with significant Qatari investment brings both opportuniti... more

Bashar al-Assad and the Greater Arab World

Yet as the Syrian crisis enters a new phase and moves closer to the “post-conflict” period, the q... more Yet as the Syrian crisis enters a new phase and moves closer to the “post-conflict” period, the question of Assad’s legitimacy and the extent to which Damascus has become subservient to Tehran will continue to complicate the prospects for Syria returning to the Arab League.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/syriasource/bashar-al-assad-and-the-greater-arab-world

Deepening the Ankara–Doha Alliance

Qatar’s pledge of aid to Turkey has deepened the two countries’ alliance, even as Turkish officia... more

The Price of Saudi Arabia’s Anti-Canada Campaign

by Ali Bakeer and Giorgio Cafiero

Saudi Arabia’s spat with Canada aims to rally nationalist sentiment among citizens, but has made ... more

Hezbollah's Finances are Its Achilles' Heel

Fighting Hezbollah is not only a military competition, but a financial one. https://nationalinte... more

Assad’s Comeback? A Lebanese Perspective- Ali Bakeer

Lebanon fears the return of the Assad regime to the regional and international arena, and thus it... more

America’s MESA Delusion

Second, the supposed members of MESA do not share the same threat perception. In fact, they might... more Second, the supposed members of MESA do not share the same threat perception. In fact, they might be afraid of each other more than any other possible threats such as Iran, radicalism, or terrorism. Just less than two years ago, at least two members (Saudi Arabia, UAE) of this initiative were reportedly on the verge of invading another member, Qatar. Noting that many members of this expected alliance (UAE, Bahrain, Egypt etc.) are normalizing relations with Assad regime, the oldest standing ally of Iran in the region; they seem more interested in countering Turkey then Iran.

https://thenewturkey.org/americas-mesa-delusion

Qatar Leaving OPEC is More About Independence

By leaving OPEC, Doha managed to highlight again the negative implications of the Saudi foreign p... more

Why did the UAE and Bahrain re-open their embassies in Syria?

However, the explanation UAE and Bahrain offered - that they reopened the embassies to curb Iran'... more

Debunking Trumpʼs Myths on Saudi Arabia ! "- Opinion

In order to justify his position, the U.S. President diluted his blunt defense of MbS by referrin... more

السودان محطة جديدة لقواعد تركيا العسكرية المتقدّمة .pdf

لتركيا اليوم قواعد عسكرية في قبرص، والعراق، وسوريا، وقطر. ويحظى الصومال بأكبر قاعدة تدريب عسكرية ... more لتركيا اليوم قواعد عسكرية في قبرص، والعراق، وسوريا، وقطر. ويحظى الصومال بأكبر قاعدة تدريب عسكرية تركية على الإطلاق. وفي هذا السياق، تشير بعض المصادر الى انّ الزيارة الأخيرة لوزير الدفاع التركي الى السودان شملت أيضاً بحث إقامة قواعد عسكرية للتدريب.
تتيح هذه القواعد العسكرية المتقدمة بناء شراكات دفاعية وأمنيّة بين تركيا والدول المستضيفة، فهي تعزز الثقة المتبادلة وتسمح بتطوير قدرات الشركاء على مستوى مكافحة الإرهاب والجهوزية الدفاعية في منطقة ممتلئة بالصراعات، كما تسمح برد فعل أسرع إزاء التهديدات المتعاظمة، وتؤمّن منطقة نفوذ متزايدة لتركيا ومنافع للدولة المستضيفة على اعتبار انها تأتي ضمن سياق أوسع يشمل شراكات سياسية واقتصادية أيضاً، وتزايد الانخراط التركي تأكيد إضافي على أنّ الشراكة الناشئة مع تركيا ستترك منافع اقتصادية أيضاً للجانب السوداني.
https://alqabas.com/601444/

Will Geopolitical Instability Strengthen Omani-Turkish Relations

For Ankara, the problematic GCC crisis may have done some additional damage to Turkey’s relations... more For Ankara, the problematic GCC crisis may have done some additional damage to Turkey’s relations with the blockading countries, but the dispute may also create new opportunities. Oman’s geopolitical position can serve as a gateway for Ankara to huge markets in southeast Asia and Africa at a time in which the Turks are seeking to discover new markets and increase their exports. But whether the two parties will manage to capitalize on the current geopolitical shifts in the Gulf to their benefit remains to be seen.

https://www.sharqforum.org/2018/10/05/will-geopolitical-instability-strengthen-omani-turkish-relations/

The 2021-2022 “De-Escalation Moment” in the Middle East: A Net Assessment

Insight Turkey, Jul 1, 2022

السياسات الخارجية في أعقاب الانقلاب الفاشل: التوجهات الإقليمية

Irán y la competencia próximoriental: convergencia y choque de proyectos (Turquía e Israel)

Turkey’s security role in the Gulf region: exploring the case of a newcomer

Turkish Studies

This study explores Turkey as a newcomer to Gulf security. It addresses why Turkish decision-make... more This study explores Turkey as a newcomer to Gulf security. It addresses why Turkish decision-makers want Turkey to play an elevated security role in the Gulf. It offers a holistic yet detailed outlook of Turkey&#39;s potential enhanced security role and develops a systematic argument that assesses Ankara&#39;s aspiration, will, and capacity to play such a role. Finally, it adopts a comparative perspective to show how the regional actors (Arab Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, and Iran) might perceive an enhanced Turkish security role in the Gulf; and where Turkey stands vis-à-vis the capacity of other extra-regional actors (the U.S., China, India, and Russia) concerning Gulf security.

Islam and International Relations (IR): why is there no Islamic IR theory?

Third World Quarterly

The Rise and Fall of Homegrown Concepts in Global IR: The Anatomy of ‘Strategic Depth’ in Turkish IR

All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace

Asymmetry of knowledge production in global international relations manifests itself in a variety... more Asymmetry of knowledge production in global international relations manifests itself in a variety of forms. Concept cultivation is a foundational form that conditions the epistemic hierarchies prevalent in scholarly encounters, exchanges, and productions. The core represents the seemingly natural ecology of concept cultivation, while the periphery appropriates the cultivated concepts, relinquishing any claim of authenticity and indigeneity in the process. Nonetheless, there have been cases of intellectual undertakings in the periphery to conceive, formulate, and articulate conceptual frames of knowledge production. This paper, first, discusses the fluctuating fortunes of homegrown concepts in the peripheral epistemic ecologies. Second, it introduces the concept of ‘strategic depth’ as articulated by the Turkish scholar Ahmet Davutoğlu and reviews its significance for the formulation and implementation of recent Turkish foreign policy. Third, it examines the causes of its recognition...

The Evolution of Turkey—Qatar Relations Amid a Growing Gulf Divide

Divided Gulf, 2019

In this chapter Bakir examines how bilateral relations between Qatar and Turkey evolved over time... more In this chapter Bakir examines how bilateral relations between Qatar and Turkey evolved over time within Turkey’s broader Middle Eastern and Gulf strategy in parallel to Ankara’s great shift from a more ideal foreign policy that depends on vast soft power to a more realistic one equipped with hard power. The Arab uprisings paved the way for the two countries to achieve a high level of alignment over interests, values, and ideology. However, the rise of common challenges, unconventional threats, and the change in the security environment amid the attempts to reformulate the region in the post-Arab-uprisings era upgraded their bilateral relations in an unprecedented way. As Turkey regained self-confidence in Erdogan’s period, Ankara has been taking a more assertive stance across the Middle East, including the Gulf. By demonstrating that it has the will and the capability to utilize its hard power, Ankara’s decision to deploy its military forces in Qatar played a major role in depriving the Saudi-led bloc from militarily escalating the crisis. In this sense, this chapter highlights Turkey’s motives, implications, and what it has to gain from getting involved in the divided Gulf.

The UAE’s Disruptive Policy in Libya

Insight Turkey, 2020

In the last decade, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has emerged as a leading counter-revolutionary... more In the last decade, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has emerged as a leading counter-revolutionary force in the Middle East. Feeling the heat of change in the region, the small, oil-rich Gulf country adopted an aggressive foreign policy that defined the UAE as a disruptive force that aims to reverse the fledgling democratic trend in the Middle East. After succeeding in Egypt in 2013, Abu Dhabi decided to support field marshal and warlord Khalifa Haftar in Libya to overthrow the UN-recognized government in Tripoli, take over power, and control Libya by force. To that end, the UAE offered massive military, financial, and diplomatic support to Haftar. In this context, the present paper aims to discuss the UAE’s interventions in Libya in terms of their nature, extent, motives, goals and repercussions. It highlights the UAE’s efforts to weave regional and international alliances to support Haftar and tries to answer the questions why Abu Dhabi has been able to act with impunity in Libya d...

Turkey's security role in the Gulf region: exploring the case of a newcomer

Turkish Studies, 2023

This study explores Turkey as a newcomer to Gulf security. It addresses why Turkish decision-make... more This study explores Turkey as a newcomer to Gulf security. It addresses why Turkish decision-makers want Turkey to play an elevated security role in the Gulf. It offers a holistic yet detailed outlook of Turkey's potential enhanced security role and develops a systematic argument that assesses Ankara's aspiration, will, and capacity to play such a role. Finally, it adopts a comparative perspective to show how the regional actors (Arab Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, and Iran) might perceive an enhanced Turkish security role in the Gulf; and where Turkey stands vis-à-vis the capacity of other extra-regional actors (the U.S., China, India, and Russia) concerning Gulf security.

Islam and International Relations (IR): why is there no Islamic IR theory

Third World Quarterly, 2022

International Relations (IR) as an academic discipline is relatively new and almost entirely domi... more International Relations (IR) as an academic discipline is relatively new and almost entirely dominated by Western sources of knowledge. Its biased nature undermines its capacity to understand, explain and predict events in the non-Western part of the world. With the increasing effort to explore non-Western IR and diversify the sources of knowledge of the discipline, Islam has emerged as an essential source of interest, not necessarily as a reflection of the East-West dichotomy or non-Western versus Western discourse, but rather as an approach that has its own rules, concepts and perspectives on IR. In this sense, the article contributes to the increasing discussions on the interaction between Islam and IR. It critically engages with three levels of discourse: first, IR in Islam; second, Islam in contemporary IR; and, third, Islam as an IR theory or as a paradigm. The paper attempts to address the question of why there are no modern Islamic IR theories by exploring reasons related to Muslims as well as to the nature of the current system and Western hegemony. It concludes by introducing an initial model and two paths (traditional and revolutionary) that might help mitigate this situation in the future.

The Rise and Fall of Homegrown Concepts in Global IR: The Anatomy of 'Strategic Depth' in Turkish IR

All Azimuth, 2022

Asymmetry of knowledge production in global international relations manifests itself in a variety... more Asymmetry of knowledge production in global international relations manifests itself in a variety of forms. Concept cultivation is a foundational form that conditions the epistemic hierarchies prevalent in scholarly encounters, exchanges, and productions. The core represents the seemingly natural ecology of concept cultivation, while the periphery appropriates the cultivated concepts, relinquishing any claim of authenticity and indigeneity in the process. Nonetheless, there have been cases of intellectual undertakings in the periphery to conceive, formulate, and articulate conceptual frames of knowledge production. This paper, first, discusses the fluctuating fortunes of homegrown concepts in the peripheral epistemic ecologies. Second, it introduces the concept of 'strategic depth' as articulated by the Turkish scholar Ahmet Davutoğlu and reviews its significance for the formulation and implementation of recent Turkish foreign policy. Third, it examines the causes of its recognition and acclaim in the local and global IR communities subsequent to its inception. The paper contends that there have been three fundamental sets of causes for the initial ascendancy of the concept. These are categorized as contemplative causes, implementative causes, and evaluative causes. Fourth, it traces the sources of its fall from scholarly grace. The paper further asserts that the three fundamental sets of causes were also operational in the eventual conceptual insolvency of strategic depth. The paper concludes by addressing remedial measures to vivify concept cultivation in the periphery and to conserve the cultivated concepts.

Mapping The Rise of Turkey’s Hard Power - Part (1)

Newsline Institute, 2021

Until recently, Turkey has relied on trade and diplomacy, as well as its key geographic location ... more Until recently, Turkey has relied on trade and diplomacy, as well as its key geographic location between Europe and the Middle East, to project power. But amid a decade of volatility brought on by the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011, Ankara has shifted to a hard-power approach to secure itself from threats in and achieve its aspirations of becoming a regional power.

Conventional wisdom is that geography privileged Turkey to be a genuine bridge between the East and West, but often overlooked is the fact that that same geography exposes Turkey to numerous unique challenges and threats, which has elevated territorial integrity, security, and interests to a central position in the thinking of the Turkish political, security, and defense establishment. These challenges have compelled Turkey to adopt a strong state model, increasing its hard-power projection to meet them.
Foreign discourse on Turkey often alienates such considerations, which creates a gap not only in terms of understanding what Turkey is doing or trying to do but also, most importantly, why it is doing it and what its end goals are.

https://newlinesinstitute.org/turkey/mapping-the-rise-of-turkeys-hard-power/

رقعة الشطرنج اللبنانية-الإسرائيلية: النزاع على الحدود والغاز شرق المتوسط

أعلن رئيس مجلس النواب اللبناني نبيه بري في غرة أكتوبر/تشرين الأول 2020، عن التوصل إلى "اتفاق إطار... more أعلن رئيس مجلس النواب اللبناني نبيه بري في غرة أكتوبر/تشرين الأول 2020، عن التوصل إلى "اتفاق إطار" بين لبنان وإسرائيل بوساطة أميركية. يتمحور الاتفاق حول تحديد "آليات التفاوض" على النزاع القائم بين الطرفين فيما يتعلق بحدود المنطقة الاقتصادية الخالصة لكل منهما شرق البحر المتوسط، حيث تدّعي إسرائيل وجود حقوق لها داخل المنطقة الاقتصادية الخالصة اللبنانية. عقدت عدّة جولات تفاوضية بين بيروت وتل أبيب في أكتوبر/تشرين الأول ونوفمبر/تشرين الثاني 2020، وكان يُفترض أن تُجرى جولات جديدة في ديسمبر/كانون الأول، لكنها لم تحصل.

تبحث هذه الورقة في خلفيات النزاع بين الطرفين، أصله، أسبابه، المراحل التي مرت بها جهود الوساطة بينهما، وظروف ودوافع التفاوض لديهما في مراحل مختلفة، وجولات التفاوض، وآليات حل النزاع بينهما.

https://studies.aljazeera.net/ar/article/4889

The Determinants of the Turkish Position towards the Syrian crisis:: The immediate dimensions and future repercussions

https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep12709

مسار أستانة: الدول الضامنة ومسارات التسوية السورية

أنشئ مسار أستانة لإيقاف إطلاق النار وإيجاد حل سياسي للصراع في سوريا، ولكن يبدو أن الدول الضامنة ا... more أنشئ مسار أستانة لإيقاف إطلاق النار وإيجاد حل سياسي للصراع في سوريا، ولكن يبدو أن الدول الضامنة استنفدت أغراضها منه إلى حدٍّ ما، وهي تبحث عن حلول مكملة خارجه، وهنا تمسك واشنطن وحلفاؤها بالأوراق المكملة للوصول إلى حل سياسي للأزمة السورية.

https://studies.aljazeera.net/ar/reports/2019/08/190801080648502.html

تركيا في العراق: الثابت والمتحول في الدور والنفوذ

تتناول هذه الورقة العلاقات التركية-العراقية وتبحث في طبيعة النفوذ التركي في العراق ومراحل صعوده و... more تتناول هذه الورقة العلاقات التركية-العراقية وتبحث في طبيعة النفوذ التركي في العراق ومراحل صعوده وهبوطه، بالإضافة إلى الإشكالية المتعلقة بدور وشرعية القوة الصلبة التركية المتزايدة في العراق، والجهود المبذولة لفتح صفحة جديدة في العلاقات بين البلدين وما هي احتمالات نجاحها.

https://studies.aljazeera.net/ar/reports/2019/06/190618071731705.html

تق‬ ‫ارير‬ ‫المصري‬ ‫القومي‬ ‫األمن‬ : ‫المتوسط‬ ‫البحر‬ ‫وشرق‬ ‫ليبيا‬ ‫في‬ ‫الصراع

تناقش الورقة مفهوم الأمن القومي وأولويات النظام المصري في ليبيا علاوةً على انعكاسات التدخل التركي... more تناقش الورقة مفهوم الأمن القومي وأولويات النظام المصري في ليبيا علاوةً على انعكاسات التدخل التركي هناك ولاسيما مذكرة التفاهم التي عقدتها أنقرة مع حكومة الوفاق الوطني المعترف بها دوليًّا بشأن ترسيم الحدود البحرية شرق البحر المتوسط، وانعكاساتها على مصالح مصر وأمنها القومي، وعمَّا إذا كان ذلك سيؤدي إلى حصول تصادم عسكري مصري-تركي في ليبيا.

https://studies.aljazeera.net/ar/article/4561

اللعبة الكبرى-جيوبوليتيك التنافس على الغاز شرق المتوسط

THE UAE'S DISRUPTIVE POLICY IN LIBYA

Insight Turkey, 2020

In the last decade, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has emerged as a leading counter-revolutionary... more In the last decade, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has emerged as a leading counter-revolutionary force in the Middle East. Feeling the heat of change in the region, the small, oil-rich Gulf country adopted an aggressive foreign policy that defined the UAE as a disruptive force that aims to reverse the fledgling democratic trend in the Middle East. After succeeding in Egypt in 2013, Abu Dhabi decided to support field marshal and warlord Khalifa Haftar in Libya to overthrow the UNrecognized government in Tripoli, take over power, and control Libya by force. To that end, the UAE offered massive military, financial, and diplomatic support to Haftar. In this context, the present paper aims to discuss the UAE's interventions in Libya in terms of their nature, extent, motives, goals and repercussions. It highlights the UAE's efforts to weave regional and international alliances to support Haftar and tries to answer the questions why Abu Dhabi has been able to act with impunity in Libya despite being the top foreign player fueling the war there for many years, and whether it will be able to achieve its goals and continue its interventions in the oil-rich North African country or not.
https://www.insightturkey.com/file/1305/the-uaes-disruptive-policy-in-libya

Turkey’s Relations with Iran and Iraq: It’s Complicated!

by Gulf International Forum and Ali Bakeer

Commentary, 2019

İRAN’IN SURİYE’DEKİ DEMOGRAFİK YAPI DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ: POLİTİKASI MAHİYETİ, ARAÇLARI ve HEDEFLERİ

The Evolution of Turkey—Qatar Relations Amid a Growing Gulf Divide

The Evolution of Turkey—Qatar Relations Amid a Growing Gulf Divide, 2019

The Evolution of Turkey—Qatar Relations Amid a Growing Gulf Divide: The Anatomy of a Crisis  In t... more The Evolution of Turkey—Qatar Relations Amid a Growing Gulf Divide: The Anatomy of a Crisis  In this chapter Bakir examines how bilateral relations between Qatar and Turkey evolved over time within Turkey’s broader Middle Eastern and Gulf strategy in parallel to Ankara’s great shift from a more ideal foreign policy that depends on vast soft power to a more realistic one equipped with hard power. The Arab uprisings paved the way for the two countries to achieve a high level of alignment over interests, values, and ideology. However, the rise of common challenges, unconventional threats, and the change in the security environment amid the attempts to reformulate the region in the post-Arab-uprisings era upgraded their bilateral relations in an unprecedented way. As Turkey regained self-confidence in Erdogan’s period, Ankara has been taking a more assertive stance across the Middle East, including the Gulf. By demonstrating that it has the will and the capability to utilize its hard power, Ankara’s decision to deploy its military forces in Qatar played a major role in depriving the Saudi-led bloc from militarily escalating the crisis. In this sense, this chapter highlights Turkey’s motives, implications, and what it has to gain from getting involved in the divided Gulf.

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-13-6314-6_12

الأبعاد الجيوستراتيجية للسياستين الإيرانية والتركية حيال سورية - علي باكير

الأبعاد الجيوستراتيجية للسياستين الإيرانية والتركية حيال سورية - علي باكير, Mar 1, 2013

دراسة: "الأبعاد الجيو-استراتيجية للسياستين الإيرانيّة والتركيّة حيال سوريا" قمت بانجاز هذه ا... more دراسة: "الأبعاد الجيو-استراتيجية للسياستين الإيرانيّة والتركيّة حيال سوريا"

قمت بانجاز هذه الدراسة في اوائل سنة 2012، وقام المركز العربي بنشرها في شهر آذار- مارس من العام 2013 نظرا لاهمّيتها ولان التوقعات المستقبليّة فيها تستشرف ما يجري اليوم. تمّ تطويرها ونشرها في كتاب "خلفيات الثورة: دراسات سورية" في ايلول 2013.

أقسام الدراسة:

· جيوبوليتيك المشروع الإيراني وموقع سورية فيه

· جيوبوليتيك المشروع التركي وموقع سورية فيه،

· التنافس الإيراني - التركي لاستقطاب سورية

· إدارة التوازنات الجيوبوليتيكية السورية – الإيرانية – التركية

· الانعكاسات الجيوبوليتيكية المستقبلية للثورة السورية

الباحث: علي حسين باكير

دار النشر: المركز العربي للأبحاث ودراسة السياسات

تاريخ النشر: أيلول 2013

كتاب: المشروع الايراني في المنطقة العربية والاسلامية- ط2- علي باكير

يتحدث الكتاب باسهاب عن المشروع الايراني في المنطقة العربية والاسلامية عبر اوراق بحثيّة ساهم فيها... more يتحدث الكتاب باسهاب عن المشروع الايراني في المنطقة العربية والاسلامية عبر اوراق بحثيّة ساهم فيها نخبة من الباحثين والمتخصصين والمهتمين العرب من مختلف التيارات والتوجهات..والكتاب هو الطبعة الثانية التي صدرت عام 2014 وهي طبعة مزيدة ومنقحة

Towards The Syrian Nightmare? Assessing The Critical Situation in Syria and Possible Scenarios

كتاب المشروع الايراني في المنطقة العربية والاسلامية - علي باكير

كتاب المشروع الايراني في المنطقة العربية والاسلامية - علي باكير, Sep 1, 2013

Is the Saudi–Turkish Normalization a Genuine Reset—Or More of the Same?

by Eyüp Ersoy and Ali Bakeer

For the link : https://amwaj.media/article/saudi-turkish-reconciliation-the-question-of-sustainab... more

Why Turkey and Saudi Arabia are Resetting Relations

by Eyüp Ersoy and Ali Bakeer

For the link : https://english.alaraby.co.uk/analysis/why-turkey-and-saudi-arabia-are-resetting-r... more