İnsan hakları sorunsalı bazı devletler, uluslararası örgütler ve sivil toplum kuruluşlarının
... more İnsan hakları sorunsalı bazı devletler, uluslararası örgütler ve sivil toplum kuruluşlarının
eylemleri sayesinde İnsan Hakları Evrensel Beyannamesi’nden bu yana günümüz uluslararası lişkilerinde kendine yer edinmiş ve bazı devletlerin dış politika yapım sürecine dahil olmuştur. İnsan hakları uluslararası ilişkiler ve uluslararası hukukun gelişimini etkileyen temel güçlerden biri olarak kabul edilmektedir. Yine de insan hakları sorunsalının uluslararası ilişkiler pratiğine ve dış politika yapım sürecine dahil edilmesi,
modern uluslararası sistemin kurucu normları düşünüldüğünde, bazı teorik, normatif ve pratik güçlükler sunmaktadır. Bu çalışma insan hakları ve dış politika arasında varolan bu gerilimi tasvir edip, uluslararası ilişkiler ve dış politika çalışmalarında hakim yaklaşım olan realizmin temel ilkelerine bakarak, bu problemli ilişkinin kökenlerinin izini sürmeyi amaçlamaktadır.
After more than a decade of brutal civil war, which is still not resolved and has left Syria divi... more After more than a decade of brutal civil war, which is still not resolved and has left Syria divided in thirds, regional states welcomed President Bashar al‐Assad back into the fold in May 2023. The Arab League's decision to reinstate Damascus's membership was the culmination of a slow and fitful process that accelerated when Saudi Arabia took the lead. Still, it is too soon to know whether and how Syrian normalization will evolve beyond its Arab core, especially due to the West's continued sanctions regime. This article analyzes how the evolution of the Syrian crisis, the changing calculus of Arab powers, and American inaction have contributed to Assad's rehabilitation. In conclusion, we consider four areas that will determine the next phase of the normalization process.
Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, Feb 18, 2021
In the last decade, the broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional security environment... more In the last decade, the broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional security environment has been shaped by the cycle of insecurity and instability. The structural transformation in the MENA has unleashed such forces whereby the region has been destabilized by multi-faceted conflicts, which have seen the involvement of many local, regional and global actors. The risks and security challenges produced by the wave of instability and conflicts have altered the international relations of the MENA region to a significant extent. A retroactive reading suggests that a decade of turmoil was triggered mainly by the demands for political transformation observed in several countries. The broader transitions in the international order have also significantly accelerated the pace and direction of regional restructuring. The transformation of the regional order has been sparked by wave of popular uprisings, called the Arab Spring. Although the promise of democratic transformation heralded by the initial phase of the Arab Spring generated optimism, in its second phase, the regional transformation has increasingly been viewed in pessimistic terms. The initial prognoses for democratization produced mixed feelings about the future direction of regional transformation. However, no actor’s efforts alone were enough to assist the political transformation agenda, and diverging positions pursued by different international actors resulted in the stalling of political reforms. Increasingly, the region has been drawn into a cycle of violence as observed in Libya, Syria or Iraq, creating myriad security challenges that are threatening the local actors, as well as producing security externalities for the international system at large. This new security environment eventually altered the regional and extra-regional attitudes towards the issue of political transformation, narrowing the scope for a reform agenda. Today, we can retroactively reflect on the overlapping processes of the reconfiguration of the states, the region and regional security dynamics, the broad parameters of which have taken some shape for now. Socio-economic pressures, various conflicts and extraregional involvement have undermined the foundations of the regional order, with significant repercussions for the identities, borders, balance of power and alignments. Protracted civil wars, the emergence of non-state actors, proxy wars, and external interventions further undermined the semblance of a normative order. While many states of the region are struggling to preserve their sovereignty and territorial integrity, others have chosen to realign their partners. For some time, to accentuate the pressures on the nation-states and the borders, the discussions were centred on the future of the Sykes-Picot order, which arguably laid the foundations of the modern Middle Eastern
After more than a decade of brutal civil war, which is still not resolved and has left Syria divi... more After more than a decade of brutal civil war, which is still not resolved and has left Syria divided in thirds, regional states welcomed President Bashar al-Assad back into the fold in May 2023. The Arab League's decision to reinstate Damascus's membership was the culmination of a slow and fitful process that accelerated when Saudi Arabia took the lead. Still, it is too soon to know whether and how Syrian normalization will evolve beyond its Arab core, especially due to the West's continued sanctions regime. This article analyzes how the evolution of the Syrian crisis, the changing calculus of Arab powers, and American inaction have contributed to Assad's rehabilitation. In conclusion, we consider four areas that will determine the next phase of the normalization process.
This report is based on the discussions conducted between Japanese and Turkish academics and gove... more This report is based on the discussions conducted between Japanese and Turkish academics and government officials (10 from each country) from various institutions as a part of the project entitled "Japan-Türkiye Dialogue on International Affairs" conducted during March-July 2022 by TOBB University of Economics and Technology with the support of the Japanese Embassy in Ankara. The Delphi Survey mentioned in the report is conducted by the participation of another group of academics, experts and government officials, 15 from each country. The report builds on discussions made during the on-line meetings and the Delphi Survey, as well as the relevant literature.
For most pundits, 2013 was a bad year, if not a disaster, for Turkish foreign policy. But such a... more For most pundits, 2013 was a bad year, if not a disaster, for Turkish foreign policy. But such apocalyptic judgments hardly substitute for the sound analysis that is needed for an accurate assessment. Those critics who proclaim the collapse of Turkish foreign policy suffer from several conceptual and analytical fallacies. Four criteria offer a more fair assessment: conceptualization of the situation; contribution to the protection or attainment of fundamental objectives of the state; flexibility in responding to contingencies; and lastly, existence of the “chips” to stay in the game. Given those criteria, Turkey’s scorecard is more balanced than what is proposed by the doomsters.
Washington, DC Ankara Belgrade Berlin Brussels Bucharest Paris Warsaw Turkey’s different recent m... more Washington, DC Ankara Belgrade Berlin Brussels Bucharest Paris Warsaw Turkey’s different recent moves in the Eastern Mediterranean, it is argued, aim to disrupt the game plans of other countries. Backed by military instruments, Turkey has confronted regional adversaries, including some of its NATO allies. It has undertaken naval exercises or deployed its navy to support its seismic surveys and has thwarted other players’ drilling efforts, hence blocking the monetization of the area’s natural resources, not to mention its military involvement in the Libya conflict. There is a tendency to view such actions as erratic moves aimed at disrupting the game plans of others which can hardly be explained by strategic considerations. Disruption is definitely part of Turkey’s regional conduct, but it would be misleading to downplay it as aimless. Such moves can be best conceptualized as part of coercive diplomacy, which is based on the threat of punishment or threat of denial to achieve desired...
The advances by Syria’s regime against the opposition-controlled territory in the northwest gover... more The advances by Syria’s regime against the opposition-controlled territory in the northwest governorate of Idlib triggered yet another cross-border military operation in the country by Turkey in February. Further escalation was prevented only through a meeting between Presidents Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Vladimir Putin on March 5 in Moscow. However, the unstable equilibrium in Idlib is more fragile than ever, and Turkey urgently needs to sustain it.
Dr. Şaban Kardaş works as an Associate Professor of international relations in the Department of ... more Dr. Şaban Kardaş works as an Associate Professor of international relations in the Department of International Relations at TOBB University of Economics and Technology in Ankara. He has published scholarly articles and book chapters on Turkish domestic and foreign policies, human rights, energy policies and international security and has been an occasional contributor to Turkish and international media. He is the assistant editor of the quarterly journals Insight Turkey and Perceptions and writes analyses for the German Marshal Fund’s On Turkey series and the Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor. FOREIGN POLICY PROGRAMME
Turkey has pursued an assertive military campaign in Iraq to eliminate the presence of the Kurdis... more Turkey has pursued an assertive military campaign in Iraq to eliminate the presence of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been supported by elements of hard power, coercive diplomacy, and an increasingly emboldened foreign-intelligence apparatus. This article traces the roots of this new phase in Turkey's cross-border military engagement to two interrelated factors. First, Ankara has adopted a new counterterrorism doctrine that relies on a militarized regional policy. Second, the course of Turkey-Iraq relations since the liberation of Mosul and the Kurds’ failed independence bid has allowed Ankara to forge a relationship of dominance over Baghdad and Erbil, facilitating its interventionism. Next, the article evaluates the broader implications of Turkey’s determination to sustain the ongoing campaign. First, Turkey’s military operations against the PKK may play a decisive role in the organization’s evolution. Second, they may expose the challenges and limits of Ankara’s new assertiveness and reliance on the use of force in the Middle East. Third, Turkey may have to pursue a delicate line in its coercive policy, lest it further undermine the fragile internal balances of Iraq. Last, while Ankara’s assertiveness may test the tense relationship with Tehran, it may not end the new understandingthe two countries reached in their regional policies.
Turkey’s Middle East policy has taken a realist turn in recent years. This article explores this ... more Turkey’s Middle East policy has taken a realist turn in recent years. This article explores this phenomenon in a critical case, i.e., Turkey’s abandonment of a policy of engagement vis-à-vis the Kurdish revisionist actors in Iraq and Syria, and tilt towards a coercive approach including military posturing. In order to explain the drivers of this realist turn, it utilizes a neo-classical realist framework that combines regional and domestic variables. It traces how the fragmentation of the regional order, combined with the rise of new security culture and power bloc domestically, undergirded the reversal in Ankara’s Middle East policy. It concludes with a discussion on the policy implications of this new phase.
The military stalemate in the northwest governorate of Idlib remains one of the main challenges b... more The military stalemate in the northwest governorate of Idlib remains one of the main challenges before Turkey's engagement in the Syrian crisis. Assad regime's offensive to reassert its control over the opposition-controlled territory earlier this year triggered a military intervention by Turkey. Although relative calm prevails since the 5 March 2020 Moscow deal, which prevented further military escalation and introduced a security mechanism, there remain many uncertainties about the humanitarian, political, and security risks surrounding the Idlib crisis. The deepening catastrophe in Idlib is definitely not a unilateral Turkish problem, as the transatlantic community has many stakes in its unfolding. Nonetheless, Turkey continues to shoulder the responsibility of managing the humanitarian, political, and security risks.
İnsan hakları sorunsalı bazı devletler, uluslararası örgütler ve sivil toplum kuruluşlarının
... more İnsan hakları sorunsalı bazı devletler, uluslararası örgütler ve sivil toplum kuruluşlarının
eylemleri sayesinde İnsan Hakları Evrensel Beyannamesi’nden bu yana günümüz uluslararası lişkilerinde kendine yer edinmiş ve bazı devletlerin dış politika yapım sürecine dahil olmuştur. İnsan hakları uluslararası ilişkiler ve uluslararası hukukun gelişimini etkileyen temel güçlerden biri olarak kabul edilmektedir. Yine de insan hakları sorunsalının uluslararası ilişkiler pratiğine ve dış politika yapım sürecine dahil edilmesi,
modern uluslararası sistemin kurucu normları düşünüldüğünde, bazı teorik, normatif ve pratik güçlükler sunmaktadır. Bu çalışma insan hakları ve dış politika arasında varolan bu gerilimi tasvir edip, uluslararası ilişkiler ve dış politika çalışmalarında hakim yaklaşım olan realizmin temel ilkelerine bakarak, bu problemli ilişkinin kökenlerinin izini sürmeyi amaçlamaktadır.
After more than a decade of brutal civil war, which is still not resolved and has left Syria divi... more After more than a decade of brutal civil war, which is still not resolved and has left Syria divided in thirds, regional states welcomed President Bashar al‐Assad back into the fold in May 2023. The Arab League's decision to reinstate Damascus's membership was the culmination of a slow and fitful process that accelerated when Saudi Arabia took the lead. Still, it is too soon to know whether and how Syrian normalization will evolve beyond its Arab core, especially due to the West's continued sanctions regime. This article analyzes how the evolution of the Syrian crisis, the changing calculus of Arab powers, and American inaction have contributed to Assad's rehabilitation. In conclusion, we consider four areas that will determine the next phase of the normalization process.
Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, Feb 18, 2021
In the last decade, the broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional security environment... more In the last decade, the broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional security environment has been shaped by the cycle of insecurity and instability. The structural transformation in the MENA has unleashed such forces whereby the region has been destabilized by multi-faceted conflicts, which have seen the involvement of many local, regional and global actors. The risks and security challenges produced by the wave of instability and conflicts have altered the international relations of the MENA region to a significant extent. A retroactive reading suggests that a decade of turmoil was triggered mainly by the demands for political transformation observed in several countries. The broader transitions in the international order have also significantly accelerated the pace and direction of regional restructuring. The transformation of the regional order has been sparked by wave of popular uprisings, called the Arab Spring. Although the promise of democratic transformation heralded by the initial phase of the Arab Spring generated optimism, in its second phase, the regional transformation has increasingly been viewed in pessimistic terms. The initial prognoses for democratization produced mixed feelings about the future direction of regional transformation. However, no actor’s efforts alone were enough to assist the political transformation agenda, and diverging positions pursued by different international actors resulted in the stalling of political reforms. Increasingly, the region has been drawn into a cycle of violence as observed in Libya, Syria or Iraq, creating myriad security challenges that are threatening the local actors, as well as producing security externalities for the international system at large. This new security environment eventually altered the regional and extra-regional attitudes towards the issue of political transformation, narrowing the scope for a reform agenda. Today, we can retroactively reflect on the overlapping processes of the reconfiguration of the states, the region and regional security dynamics, the broad parameters of which have taken some shape for now. Socio-economic pressures, various conflicts and extraregional involvement have undermined the foundations of the regional order, with significant repercussions for the identities, borders, balance of power and alignments. Protracted civil wars, the emergence of non-state actors, proxy wars, and external interventions further undermined the semblance of a normative order. While many states of the region are struggling to preserve their sovereignty and territorial integrity, others have chosen to realign their partners. For some time, to accentuate the pressures on the nation-states and the borders, the discussions were centred on the future of the Sykes-Picot order, which arguably laid the foundations of the modern Middle Eastern
After more than a decade of brutal civil war, which is still not resolved and has left Syria divi... more After more than a decade of brutal civil war, which is still not resolved and has left Syria divided in thirds, regional states welcomed President Bashar al-Assad back into the fold in May 2023. The Arab League's decision to reinstate Damascus's membership was the culmination of a slow and fitful process that accelerated when Saudi Arabia took the lead. Still, it is too soon to know whether and how Syrian normalization will evolve beyond its Arab core, especially due to the West's continued sanctions regime. This article analyzes how the evolution of the Syrian crisis, the changing calculus of Arab powers, and American inaction have contributed to Assad's rehabilitation. In conclusion, we consider four areas that will determine the next phase of the normalization process.
This report is based on the discussions conducted between Japanese and Turkish academics and gove... more This report is based on the discussions conducted between Japanese and Turkish academics and government officials (10 from each country) from various institutions as a part of the project entitled "Japan-Türkiye Dialogue on International Affairs" conducted during March-July 2022 by TOBB University of Economics and Technology with the support of the Japanese Embassy in Ankara. The Delphi Survey mentioned in the report is conducted by the participation of another group of academics, experts and government officials, 15 from each country. The report builds on discussions made during the on-line meetings and the Delphi Survey, as well as the relevant literature.
For most pundits, 2013 was a bad year, if not a disaster, for Turkish foreign policy. But such a... more For most pundits, 2013 was a bad year, if not a disaster, for Turkish foreign policy. But such apocalyptic judgments hardly substitute for the sound analysis that is needed for an accurate assessment. Those critics who proclaim the collapse of Turkish foreign policy suffer from several conceptual and analytical fallacies. Four criteria offer a more fair assessment: conceptualization of the situation; contribution to the protection or attainment of fundamental objectives of the state; flexibility in responding to contingencies; and lastly, existence of the “chips” to stay in the game. Given those criteria, Turkey’s scorecard is more balanced than what is proposed by the doomsters.
Washington, DC Ankara Belgrade Berlin Brussels Bucharest Paris Warsaw Turkey’s different recent m... more Washington, DC Ankara Belgrade Berlin Brussels Bucharest Paris Warsaw Turkey’s different recent moves in the Eastern Mediterranean, it is argued, aim to disrupt the game plans of other countries. Backed by military instruments, Turkey has confronted regional adversaries, including some of its NATO allies. It has undertaken naval exercises or deployed its navy to support its seismic surveys and has thwarted other players’ drilling efforts, hence blocking the monetization of the area’s natural resources, not to mention its military involvement in the Libya conflict. There is a tendency to view such actions as erratic moves aimed at disrupting the game plans of others which can hardly be explained by strategic considerations. Disruption is definitely part of Turkey’s regional conduct, but it would be misleading to downplay it as aimless. Such moves can be best conceptualized as part of coercive diplomacy, which is based on the threat of punishment or threat of denial to achieve desired...
The advances by Syria’s regime against the opposition-controlled territory in the northwest gover... more The advances by Syria’s regime against the opposition-controlled territory in the northwest governorate of Idlib triggered yet another cross-border military operation in the country by Turkey in February. Further escalation was prevented only through a meeting between Presidents Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Vladimir Putin on March 5 in Moscow. However, the unstable equilibrium in Idlib is more fragile than ever, and Turkey urgently needs to sustain it.
Dr. Şaban Kardaş works as an Associate Professor of international relations in the Department of ... more Dr. Şaban Kardaş works as an Associate Professor of international relations in the Department of International Relations at TOBB University of Economics and Technology in Ankara. He has published scholarly articles and book chapters on Turkish domestic and foreign policies, human rights, energy policies and international security and has been an occasional contributor to Turkish and international media. He is the assistant editor of the quarterly journals Insight Turkey and Perceptions and writes analyses for the German Marshal Fund’s On Turkey series and the Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor. FOREIGN POLICY PROGRAMME
Turkey has pursued an assertive military campaign in Iraq to eliminate the presence of the Kurdis... more Turkey has pursued an assertive military campaign in Iraq to eliminate the presence of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been supported by elements of hard power, coercive diplomacy, and an increasingly emboldened foreign-intelligence apparatus. This article traces the roots of this new phase in Turkey's cross-border military engagement to two interrelated factors. First, Ankara has adopted a new counterterrorism doctrine that relies on a militarized regional policy. Second, the course of Turkey-Iraq relations since the liberation of Mosul and the Kurds’ failed independence bid has allowed Ankara to forge a relationship of dominance over Baghdad and Erbil, facilitating its interventionism. Next, the article evaluates the broader implications of Turkey’s determination to sustain the ongoing campaign. First, Turkey’s military operations against the PKK may play a decisive role in the organization’s evolution. Second, they may expose the challenges and limits of Ankara’s new assertiveness and reliance on the use of force in the Middle East. Third, Turkey may have to pursue a delicate line in its coercive policy, lest it further undermine the fragile internal balances of Iraq. Last, while Ankara’s assertiveness may test the tense relationship with Tehran, it may not end the new understandingthe two countries reached in their regional policies.
Turkey’s Middle East policy has taken a realist turn in recent years. This article explores this ... more Turkey’s Middle East policy has taken a realist turn in recent years. This article explores this phenomenon in a critical case, i.e., Turkey’s abandonment of a policy of engagement vis-à-vis the Kurdish revisionist actors in Iraq and Syria, and tilt towards a coercive approach including military posturing. In order to explain the drivers of this realist turn, it utilizes a neo-classical realist framework that combines regional and domestic variables. It traces how the fragmentation of the regional order, combined with the rise of new security culture and power bloc domestically, undergirded the reversal in Ankara’s Middle East policy. It concludes with a discussion on the policy implications of this new phase.
The military stalemate in the northwest governorate of Idlib remains one of the main challenges b... more The military stalemate in the northwest governorate of Idlib remains one of the main challenges before Turkey's engagement in the Syrian crisis. Assad regime's offensive to reassert its control over the opposition-controlled territory earlier this year triggered a military intervention by Turkey. Although relative calm prevails since the 5 March 2020 Moscow deal, which prevented further military escalation and introduced a security mechanism, there remain many uncertainties about the humanitarian, political, and security risks surrounding the Idlib crisis. The deepening catastrophe in Idlib is definitely not a unilateral Turkish problem, as the transatlantic community has many stakes in its unfolding. Nonetheless, Turkey continues to shoulder the responsibility of managing the humanitarian, political, and security risks.
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eylemleri sayesinde İnsan Hakları Evrensel Beyannamesi’nden bu yana günümüz uluslararası lişkilerinde kendine yer edinmiş ve bazı devletlerin dış politika yapım sürecine dahil olmuştur. İnsan hakları uluslararası ilişkiler ve uluslararası hukukun gelişimini etkileyen temel güçlerden biri olarak kabul edilmektedir. Yine de insan hakları sorunsalının uluslararası ilişkiler pratiğine ve dış politika yapım sürecine dahil edilmesi,
modern uluslararası sistemin kurucu normları düşünüldüğünde, bazı teorik, normatif ve pratik güçlükler sunmaktadır. Bu çalışma insan hakları ve dış politika arasında varolan bu gerilimi tasvir edip, uluslararası ilişkiler ve dış politika çalışmalarında hakim yaklaşım olan realizmin temel ilkelerine bakarak, bu problemli ilişkinin kökenlerinin izini sürmeyi amaçlamaktadır.
in the game. Given those criteria, Turkey’s scorecard is more balanced than what is proposed by the doomsters.
eylemleri sayesinde İnsan Hakları Evrensel Beyannamesi’nden bu yana günümüz uluslararası lişkilerinde kendine yer edinmiş ve bazı devletlerin dış politika yapım sürecine dahil olmuştur. İnsan hakları uluslararası ilişkiler ve uluslararası hukukun gelişimini etkileyen temel güçlerden biri olarak kabul edilmektedir. Yine de insan hakları sorunsalının uluslararası ilişkiler pratiğine ve dış politika yapım sürecine dahil edilmesi,
modern uluslararası sistemin kurucu normları düşünüldüğünde, bazı teorik, normatif ve pratik güçlükler sunmaktadır. Bu çalışma insan hakları ve dış politika arasında varolan bu gerilimi tasvir edip, uluslararası ilişkiler ve dış politika çalışmalarında hakim yaklaşım olan realizmin temel ilkelerine bakarak, bu problemli ilişkinin kökenlerinin izini sürmeyi amaçlamaktadır.
in the game. Given those criteria, Turkey’s scorecard is more balanced than what is proposed by the doomsters.