The use of probabilistic forecasts: Applying them in theory and practice
SE Haupt, MG Casado, M Davidson… - IEEE Power and …, 2019 - ieeexplore.ieee.org
IEEE Power and Energy Magazine, 2019•ieeexplore.ieee.org
Much of the electric system is weather dependent; thus, our ability to forecast the weather
contributes to its efficient and economical operation. Climatological forecasts of
meteorological variables are used for long-term planning, capturing changing frequencies of
extreme events, such as cold and hot periods, and identifying suitable locations for
deploying new resources. Planning for fuel delivery and maintenance relies on subseasonal
to seasonal forecasts. On shorter timescales of days, the weather affects both energy …
contributes to its efficient and economical operation. Climatological forecasts of
meteorological variables are used for long-term planning, capturing changing frequencies of
extreme events, such as cold and hot periods, and identifying suitable locations for
deploying new resources. Planning for fuel delivery and maintenance relies on subseasonal
to seasonal forecasts. On shorter timescales of days, the weather affects both energy …
Much of the electric system is weather dependent; thus, our ability to forecast the weather contributes to its efficient and economical operation. Climatological forecasts of meteorological variables are used for long-term planning, capturing changing frequencies of extreme events, such as cold and hot periods, and identifying suitable locations for deploying new resources. Planning for fuel delivery and maintenance relies on subseasonal to seasonal forecasts. On shorter timescales of days, the weather affects both energy demand and supply. Electrical load depends critically on weather because electricity is used for heating and cooling. As more renewable energy is deployed, it becomes increasingly important to understand how these energy sources vary with atmospheric conditions; thus, predictions are necessary for planning unit commitments. On the scales of minutes to hours, shortterm nowcasts aid in the real-time grid integration of these variable energy resources (VERs).
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