2nd VEGETATION International Users Conference, Antwerp 24-26 March 2004 57 Use of VEGETATION data... more 2nd VEGETATION International Users Conference, Antwerp 24-26 March 2004 57 Use of VEGETATION data for Dynamic Vegetation Modelling within the UK Centre for Terrestrial Carbon Dynamics (CTCD) Tristan Quaife (1), Mark Lomas (2), Ghislain Picard (3), Mathias Disney (1), Ian ...
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2013
Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO 2 are expected to cause major changes in vege... more Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO 2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 °C of global land surface warming (510–758 ppm of CO 2 ), vegetation carbon increases by 52–477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO 2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean...
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2013
The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity’s diverse life-support syst... more The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity’s diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of ...
Biology & Environment: Proceedings of the Royal Irish Academy, 2010
ABSTRACT The impacts of current and future changes in climate have been investigated for Irish ve... more ABSTRACT The impacts of current and future changes in climate have been investigated for Irish vegetation. Warming has been observed over the last two decades, with impacts that are also strongly influenced by natural oscillations of the surrounding ocean, seen as fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Satellite observations show that vegetation greenness increases in warmer years, a feature mirrored by increases in net ecosystem production observed for a grassland and a plantation forest. An ensemble of general circulation model simulations of future climates indicate temperature rises over the twenty-first century ranging from 1 C to 7 C, depending on future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Net primary production is simulated to increase under all scenarios, due to the positive impacts of rising temperature, a modest rise of precipitation and rising carbon dioxide concentrations. In an optimistic scenario of reducing future emissions, CO, concentration is simulated to flatten from about 2070, although temperatures continue to increase. Under this scenario Ireland could become a source of carbon, whereas under all other emission scenarios Ireland is a sink for carbon that may increase by up to three-fold over the twenty-first century. A likely and unavoidable impact of changing climate is the arrival of alien plant species, which may disrupt ecosystems and exert negative impacts on native biodiversity. Alien species arrive continually, with about 250 dated arrivals in the twentieth century. A simulation model indicates that this rate of alien arrival may increase by anything between two and tell times, dependent on the future climatic scenario, by 2050. Which alien species may become severely disruptive is, however, not known.
Large-scale bottom-up estimates of terrestrial carbon fluxes, whether based on models or inventor... more Large-scale bottom-up estimates of terrestrial carbon fluxes, whether based on models or inventory, are highly dependent on the assumed land cover. Most current land cover and land cover change maps are based on satellite data and are likely to be so for the foreseeable future. However, these maps show large differences, both at the class level and when transformed into Plant Functional Types (PFTs), and these can lead to large differences in terrestrial CO2 fluxes estimated by Dynamic Vegetation Models. In this study the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model is used. We compare PFT maps and the resulting fluxes arising from the use of widely available moderate (1 km) resolution satellite-derived land cover maps (the Global Land Cover 2000 and several MODIS classification schemes), with fluxes calculated using a reference high (25 m) resolution land cover map specific to Great Britain (the Land Cover Map 2000). We demonstrate that uncertainty is introduced into carbon flux calculations by (1) incorrect or uncertain assignment of land cover classes to PFTs; (2) information loss at coarser resolutions; (3) difficulty in discriminating some vegetation types from satellite data. When averaged over Great Britain, modeled CO2 fluxes derived using the different 1 km resolution maps differ from estimates made using the reference map. The ranges of these differences are 254 gC m−2 a−1 in Gross Primary Production (GPP); 133 gC m−2 a−1 in Net Primary Production (NPP); and 43 gC m−2 a−1 in Net Ecosystem Production (NEP). In GPP this accounts for differences of −15.8% to 8.8%. Results for living biomass exhibit a range of 1109 gC m−2. The types of uncertainties due to land cover confusion are likely to be representative of many parts of the world, especially heterogeneous landscapes such as those found in western Europe.
This paper addresses the use of radar remote sensing to map forest above-ground biomass, and disc... more This paper addresses the use of radar remote sensing to map forest above-ground biomass, and discusses the use of biomass maps to test a dynamic vegetation model that identifies carbon sources and sinks and predicts their variation over time. For current radar satellite data, only the biomass of young/sparse forests or regrowth after disturbances can be recovered. An example from central Siberia illustrates that biomass can be measured by radar at a continental scale, and that a significant proportion of the Siberian forests have biomass values less than 50 tonnes/ha. Comparison between the radar map and calculations by the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SDGVM) indicates that the model considerably overestimates biomass; under-representation of managed areas, disturbed areas and areas of low site quality in the model are suggested reasons for this effect. A case study carried out at the Büdingen plantation forest in Germany supports the argument that inadequate representations of site quality and forest management may cause model overestimates of biomass. Comparison of the calculated biomass of stands planted after 1990 with biomass estimates by radar allows identification of forest stands where the growth conditions assumed by the model are not valid. This allows a quality check on model calculations of carbon fluxes: only calculations for stands where there is good agreement between the data and the model predictions should be accepted. Although the paper only uses the SDGVM model, similar effects are likely in other dynamic vegetation models, and the results show that model calculations attempting to quantify the role of forests as carbon sources or sinks could be qualified and potentially improved by exploiting remotely sensed measurements of biomass.
2nd VEGETATION International Users Conference, Antwerp 24-26 March 2004 57 Use of VEGETATION data... more 2nd VEGETATION International Users Conference, Antwerp 24-26 March 2004 57 Use of VEGETATION data for Dynamic Vegetation Modelling within the UK Centre for Terrestrial Carbon Dynamics (CTCD) Tristan Quaife (1), Mark Lomas (2), Ghislain Picard (3), Mathias Disney (1), Ian ...
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2013
Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO 2 are expected to cause major changes in vege... more Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO 2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 °C of global land surface warming (510–758 ppm of CO 2 ), vegetation carbon increases by 52–477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO 2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean...
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2013
The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity’s diverse life-support syst... more The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity’s diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of ...
Biology & Environment: Proceedings of the Royal Irish Academy, 2010
ABSTRACT The impacts of current and future changes in climate have been investigated for Irish ve... more ABSTRACT The impacts of current and future changes in climate have been investigated for Irish vegetation. Warming has been observed over the last two decades, with impacts that are also strongly influenced by natural oscillations of the surrounding ocean, seen as fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Satellite observations show that vegetation greenness increases in warmer years, a feature mirrored by increases in net ecosystem production observed for a grassland and a plantation forest. An ensemble of general circulation model simulations of future climates indicate temperature rises over the twenty-first century ranging from 1 C to 7 C, depending on future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Net primary production is simulated to increase under all scenarios, due to the positive impacts of rising temperature, a modest rise of precipitation and rising carbon dioxide concentrations. In an optimistic scenario of reducing future emissions, CO, concentration is simulated to flatten from about 2070, although temperatures continue to increase. Under this scenario Ireland could become a source of carbon, whereas under all other emission scenarios Ireland is a sink for carbon that may increase by up to three-fold over the twenty-first century. A likely and unavoidable impact of changing climate is the arrival of alien plant species, which may disrupt ecosystems and exert negative impacts on native biodiversity. Alien species arrive continually, with about 250 dated arrivals in the twentieth century. A simulation model indicates that this rate of alien arrival may increase by anything between two and tell times, dependent on the future climatic scenario, by 2050. Which alien species may become severely disruptive is, however, not known.
Large-scale bottom-up estimates of terrestrial carbon fluxes, whether based on models or inventor... more Large-scale bottom-up estimates of terrestrial carbon fluxes, whether based on models or inventory, are highly dependent on the assumed land cover. Most current land cover and land cover change maps are based on satellite data and are likely to be so for the foreseeable future. However, these maps show large differences, both at the class level and when transformed into Plant Functional Types (PFTs), and these can lead to large differences in terrestrial CO2 fluxes estimated by Dynamic Vegetation Models. In this study the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model is used. We compare PFT maps and the resulting fluxes arising from the use of widely available moderate (1 km) resolution satellite-derived land cover maps (the Global Land Cover 2000 and several MODIS classification schemes), with fluxes calculated using a reference high (25 m) resolution land cover map specific to Great Britain (the Land Cover Map 2000). We demonstrate that uncertainty is introduced into carbon flux calculations by (1) incorrect or uncertain assignment of land cover classes to PFTs; (2) information loss at coarser resolutions; (3) difficulty in discriminating some vegetation types from satellite data. When averaged over Great Britain, modeled CO2 fluxes derived using the different 1 km resolution maps differ from estimates made using the reference map. The ranges of these differences are 254 gC m−2 a−1 in Gross Primary Production (GPP); 133 gC m−2 a−1 in Net Primary Production (NPP); and 43 gC m−2 a−1 in Net Ecosystem Production (NEP). In GPP this accounts for differences of −15.8% to 8.8%. Results for living biomass exhibit a range of 1109 gC m−2. The types of uncertainties due to land cover confusion are likely to be representative of many parts of the world, especially heterogeneous landscapes such as those found in western Europe.
This paper addresses the use of radar remote sensing to map forest above-ground biomass, and disc... more This paper addresses the use of radar remote sensing to map forest above-ground biomass, and discusses the use of biomass maps to test a dynamic vegetation model that identifies carbon sources and sinks and predicts their variation over time. For current radar satellite data, only the biomass of young/sparse forests or regrowth after disturbances can be recovered. An example from central Siberia illustrates that biomass can be measured by radar at a continental scale, and that a significant proportion of the Siberian forests have biomass values less than 50 tonnes/ha. Comparison between the radar map and calculations by the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SDGVM) indicates that the model considerably overestimates biomass; under-representation of managed areas, disturbed areas and areas of low site quality in the model are suggested reasons for this effect. A case study carried out at the Büdingen plantation forest in Germany supports the argument that inadequate representations of site quality and forest management may cause model overestimates of biomass. Comparison of the calculated biomass of stands planted after 1990 with biomass estimates by radar allows identification of forest stands where the growth conditions assumed by the model are not valid. This allows a quality check on model calculations of carbon fluxes: only calculations for stands where there is good agreement between the data and the model predictions should be accepted. Although the paper only uses the SDGVM model, similar effects are likely in other dynamic vegetation models, and the results show that model calculations attempting to quantify the role of forests as carbon sources or sinks could be qualified and potentially improved by exploiting remotely sensed measurements of biomass.
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Papers by M. Lomas