Books by George S Naufal
Expats and the Labor Force examines the flows of people and money in the Gulf Cooperation Council... more Expats and the Labor Force examines the flows of people and money in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. This timely book outlines the reasons that made the Gulf region a destination for millions of migrants. Taking advantage of the discovery of large hydrocarbon reserves and relatively stable political environment, the GCC countries filled the large demand for labor with foreign workers. However the number, share, and source of expatriates have presented serious challenges for the region. Naufal and Genc discuss these consequences on the composition of the labor force and remittance outflows.
Blog Posts by George S Naufal
Oil-based economies, including the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, have recently introd... more Oil-based economies, including the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, have recently introduced economic and legislative proposals to balance their growing budget deficits, particularly taxation on remittances. While several GCC countries have not finalized their state policy (except Saudi Arabia), their unintended economic effects could pose negative implications both on migrants’ remittances and money transfer flows in the long run. These effects do not only carry economic and security issues, but also pose policy challenges for government and international organizations’ monitoring capacity of remittance flows globally.
Migration Blog for the Middle East and Africa, Aug 3, 2015
Among all types of migrants, domestic workers are the least visible and vulnerable in the labor m... more Among all types of migrants, domestic workers are the least visible and vulnerable in the labor market. Domestic workers often live within their employer’s household and therefore are heavily subjected to personalized house rules. The complex dynamics of the work environment of domestic workers are significantly different than that of typical employees in commercial businesses, who often work in public spaces and are covered by existing national labor regulations. That said data on both micro and macro characteristics of domestic workers are extremely scarce and challenging to collect, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.
Papers by George S Naufal
Remittances Review , 2017
This paper examines how and why migrants remit through unauthorized remittance channels (namely t... more This paper examines how and why migrants remit through unauthorized remittance channels (namely the hawala or hundi) and investigates the hawala's developmental roles and effects on migrants’ socioeconomic status. Applying a qualitative case study of 30 low-income Pakistani migrants in Dubai, we argue that the thriving yet unauthorized status of the hawala system is a unique product of global migration process. In contrast to the dominant literature on the nexus between the hawala and terrorist and criminal-related financing, we assert that the sustainability of the hawala is the result of an ongoing effort of low-income migrants to increase their remitting power, providing money that is crucial to their families’ socioeconomic status within the context of rapidly globalizing forces. This study provides both important empirical and theoretical insights into the hawala's complex relevance for low-income migrants, governments, and international organizations in global migration context.
The Indian migration to the Gulf countries is one of the most complex and dynamic flows globally.... more The Indian migration to the Gulf countries is one of the most complex and dynamic flows globally. Marked as the largest and highly diverse migrants populations, India constitutes more than one billion people, providing both critical labor supply to various traditional Western labor-receiving countries (mostly skilled workers), and recently to the Gulf countries (mostly low-skilled) and of the broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. In this chapter, we examine the contemporary Indian migration to the Gulf region by analyzing the current economic, social, and political trends affecting Indian migrant population in the region. Relevant challenges and emerging opportunities for Indian migrants in the Gulf region will also be examined in the context of the existing migration debates. 2
As the world’s oil and gas prices decline, taxation of foreign workers’ remittances has increasin... more As the world’s oil and gas prices decline, taxation of foreign workers’ remittances has increasingly
become a potentially viable solution to address government budget deficits in the Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC) states. With growing unemployment rates and labour shortages among local populations,
the GCC governments have recently proposed legislative and, in some cases already introduced,
economic measures to tax foreign workers’ remittances. Newly proposed tax measures on remittance outflows
are often rationalised as critical stop-gap solutions to mitigate high government budget deficits and
share costs in accessing state-subsidized public infrastructure and services. Yet, several GCC governments
face a complex policy dilemma between balancing budget deficits and addressing high labour shortages
and incentives in local labour markets. Thus, the key policy question is: how can GCC governments manage
this emerging policy dilemma within their borders? This policy brief examines not only the recently
suggested policy responses of various GCC governments but also their long-term potential implications
on national labour markets and migrants and their families both in the destination and origin countries.
The growth in the number and in the size of remittances and the stability of these monetary trans... more The growth in the number and in the size of remittances and the stability of these monetary transfers have made them a prime target for policymakers. Because remittance flows go directly to households in emigrants’ home countries, one has to wonder about their effects on household decision-making, particularly in relation to the number of children to have. While this is household specific, when considered at the community and country level, there are significant policy implications for remittance-receiving economies. Therefore, it is crucial to more fully understand the relationship between remittance inflows and fertility rates.
Advances in Applied Microeconomics, 2006
Abstract: Do high ratings based upon traditional performance measures go hand in hand with effici... more Abstract: Do high ratings based upon traditional performance measures go hand in hand with efficiency? This paper addresses this question using stochastic production frontier methods. We utilize a six-year panel of test score, school input, and school student characteristics data for a sample of 3,000 campuses in Texas. We generate estimates of school-specific efficiency based upon the estimates of the one-sided school specific error term in a stochastic production frontier model. School rankings on the basis of estimated ...
The strong economic ties between the GCC economies and the U.S. are manifested in three ways: cur... more The strong economic ties between the GCC economies and the U.S. are manifested in three ways: currency peg, coupling of monetary policy, and the adoption of the U.S. dollar as the trading currency for oil. This paper examines how these dynamics result in a misalignment of the U.S. monetary policy with the business cycles of the GCC economies. The study shows how the staggering amount of remittances outflow of the GCC economies plays a stabilizing role as a tacit monetary policy tool. Incorporating remittances in the money demand equation results in a more robust model than otherwise. We further find that the effect of the Federal Funds rate on money demand in these countries diminishes in significance during the period of oil boom between 2002 and 2009. However, the transmission effect of the recession periods in the U.S. into the demand for money in the GCC countries is not statistically significant.
Substitutes for marital sexual gratification may impact the decision to marry. Proliferation of t... more Substitutes for marital sexual gratification may impact the decision to marry. Proliferation of the Internet has made pornography an increasingly low-cost substitute. We investigate the effect of Internet usage, and of pornography consumption specifically, on the marital status of young men. We show that increased Internet usage is negatively associated with marriage formation. Pornography consumption specifically has an even stronger effect. Instrumental variables and a number of robustness checks suggest that the effect is causal.
We examine how selected high school characteristics – including type of diploma – contribute to s... more We examine how selected high school characteristics – including type of diploma – contribute to students' academic success in an American-type university in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). We find no robust evidence that US, UK, and UAE systems of high school diploma produce different outcomes, once we control for English proficiency. Irrespective of the type of diploma, high school grade is a strong positive predictor of future performance. We identify significant female, nationality, and family income effects. There is evidence that school ownership (private versus public) does not matter, and that graduates of coeducational schools perform better.
After independence, the GCC countries relied heavily on foreign workers from fellow Arabs countri... more After independence, the GCC countries relied heavily on foreign workers from fellow Arabs countries. Thus, remittances flowed from GCC to other countries in MENA. In the 1980s-1990s labor source switched to South Asia; so did the flow of remittances. This paper examines the consequences of the shift in the source of labor by econometrically testing the existence of structural breaks in the flow of remittances in the MENA region. The change in the direction of remittance flows deprived several MENA labor exporters of large sums of foreign exchange, adding significant economic, social and political hardships on non-GCC MENA countries.
We examine the effect of remittance outflows on inflation in the remitting countries. The growth ... more We examine the effect of remittance outflows on inflation in the remitting countries. The growth of remittance outflows depresses inflation rate.
Abstract The strong economic ties between the GCC economies and the US are manifested in three wa... more Abstract The strong economic ties between the GCC economies and the US are manifested in three ways: currency peg, coupling of monetary policy and the adoption of the US dollar as the trading currency for oil. This paper examines how these dynamics result in misalignment of the US monetary policy with the business cycles of the GCC economies. The study analyzes how the staggering amount of remittances from the GCC economies plays a stabilizing role as a tacit monetary policy tool.
"Despite being a fixture of everyday life in the Arab world, wasta, which may be thought of as sp... more "Despite being a fixture of everyday life in the Arab world, wasta, which may be thought of as special influence by members of the same group or tribe, has received little attention from social scientists. Our casual empiricism suggests that wasta is an important determinant of how economic activities are organized and resources are allocated in Middle Eastern societies, yet economists, even those who specialize in work related to the Middle East, have not addressed the issue of wasta. With this paper we provide a modest beginning to filling that void. Specifically, we use the history of wasta, Hayek’s concept of extended order and Coase’s work on the nature of the firm to draw inferences regarding the existence of wasta and its persistence in Arab societies.
"
This study examines the impact of a remittances shock on the main macroeconomic aggregates of a s... more This study examines the impact of a remittances shock on the main macroeconomic aggregates of a small open economy. It uses a stochastic limited participation model to generate dynamics that are consistent with the empirical literature, like the increase in inflation, consumption, and leisure. However, the remittances shock generates a prolonged decline in GDP, which only diminishes when remittances are a larger percentage of GDP, the fraction of remittances directed towards investment increases, or when the fraction of labor income that remittances represent is reduced and is overturned when the persistence of the remittances shocks is shortened.
In the Middle East, the use of wasta, which means in general to use connections in order to gain ... more In the Middle East, the use of wasta, which means in general to use connections in order to gain something favorable outside of the usual norm, constitutes one main approach of conducting business. The use of wasta is widespread but little is known about it. In this empirical exercise, we examine the likelihood of resorting to wasta by university students when faced with a set of predetermined workplace ethical dilemmas. Our objective is to define a set of determinants of wasta in order to shed more light on the use of this social behavior. The findings suggest that the likelihood of resorting to wasta is largely independent of the students’ characteristics and seems to be an immutable social phenomenon.
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Books by George S Naufal
Blog Posts by George S Naufal
Papers by George S Naufal
become a potentially viable solution to address government budget deficits in the Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC) states. With growing unemployment rates and labour shortages among local populations,
the GCC governments have recently proposed legislative and, in some cases already introduced,
economic measures to tax foreign workers’ remittances. Newly proposed tax measures on remittance outflows
are often rationalised as critical stop-gap solutions to mitigate high government budget deficits and
share costs in accessing state-subsidized public infrastructure and services. Yet, several GCC governments
face a complex policy dilemma between balancing budget deficits and addressing high labour shortages
and incentives in local labour markets. Thus, the key policy question is: how can GCC governments manage
this emerging policy dilemma within their borders? This policy brief examines not only the recently
suggested policy responses of various GCC governments but also their long-term potential implications
on national labour markets and migrants and their families both in the destination and origin countries.
"
become a potentially viable solution to address government budget deficits in the Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC) states. With growing unemployment rates and labour shortages among local populations,
the GCC governments have recently proposed legislative and, in some cases already introduced,
economic measures to tax foreign workers’ remittances. Newly proposed tax measures on remittance outflows
are often rationalised as critical stop-gap solutions to mitigate high government budget deficits and
share costs in accessing state-subsidized public infrastructure and services. Yet, several GCC governments
face a complex policy dilemma between balancing budget deficits and addressing high labour shortages
and incentives in local labour markets. Thus, the key policy question is: how can GCC governments manage
this emerging policy dilemma within their borders? This policy brief examines not only the recently
suggested policy responses of various GCC governments but also their long-term potential implications
on national labour markets and migrants and their families both in the destination and origin countries.
"
(subagents), sponsors (employers), and social networks. Several factors contribute to asymmetric information: the lack of bilateral labor agreements and government policy coordination, programs between and among government entities, the absence of labor law for domestic workers, and the laissez faire approach of the labor-receiving government. These sources of asymmetric information do not only create serious market vulnerabilities for the domestic worker population, but often lead to loss of employment and early
deportation. The concluding section further outlines various critical policy implications and potential areas of methodological research on GCC migration.