In my PhD project 'Measuring Expectations of Hydrogen Energy Systems', I study the dynamics of expectations in technological development. Special attention is paid to expectations within and amongst technological communities and how these communities continuously negotiate the future of hydrogen systems.
The notion of dominant designs refers to dominance in the market, hence the literature on dominan... more The notion of dominant designs refers to dominance in the market, hence the literature on dominant designs ignores the selection process that already takes place in pre-market R&D stages of technological innovation. In this paper we address the question to what extent pre-market selection takes place within an industry and how this may lead to dominance of one design over others before the market comes into play. Furthermore we study what selection criteria apply in the absence of actual market criteria. We do so through a historical analysis of design paths for hydrogen passenger cars.
We argue that prototypes are used by firms in their internal search process towards new designs and at the same time as means of communicating technological expectations to competitors and outsiders. In both senses, prototypes can be taken as indicators of design paths in the ongoing search process of an industry.
We analyzed the designs of prototypes of hydrogen passenger cars from the 1970s till 2008. A database is compiled of 224 prototypes of hydrogen passenger cars, listing the car's manufacturer, year of construction, hydrogen conversion technology, fuel cell type, and capacity of its hydrogen storage system. The analysis shows to what extent one design gained dominance and which strategies were adopted by the firms in their search processes.
We conclude that indeed a dominant prototyping design has emerged: the fuel cell combined with high pressure gaseous storage. Actual and expected performance acted as selection criterion, but so did regulation and strategic behaviour of the firms. Especially imitation dynamics, with industry leaders and followers, is a major explanatory factor. Our main theoretical claim is that the selection of a dominant prototyping design is based on an interaction of sets of expectations about future performance of technological components and regulatory pressure that results in herding behaviour of the firms.
Technological Forecasting and Social …, Jan 1, 2012
Abstract There are many competing transition paths toward sustainability and even more competing ... more Abstract There are many competing transition paths toward sustainability and even more competing visions and expectations, while only a limited of number of paths can be supported. In the literature so far, not much attention has been paid to the question: what ...
Two designs compete to become the car of the future: the battery electric and the hydrogen car. E... more Two designs compete to become the car of the future: the battery electric and the hydrogen car. Even though both designs are part of the same trend towards electrification of the drivetrain, they compete in terms of R&D funding, supportive regulation and infrastructure. Both options are developed and tested in so-called technological niches in which they are shielded from regular market forces. The body of literature on technological niches deals with the development of single niches and their relation to the sociotechnical regime and landscape. With this paper we aim to contribute an understanding of the dynamics of the competition between multiple niche technologies.
The competition between the two designs takes place on the level of firms as well as on a global, industry-wide, level. In our case study we describe the competition since the 1990s and show how attention and expectations for both options have alternated in three phases. High hopes and subsequent disappointments of component technologies were main drivers for the alternations. On the local level there is room for multiple options at the same time, but on the global level attention and expectations seem much more focussed on either the one or the other.
2
The hydrogen hype of the last decade has passed and it is now seemingly substituted by the electr... more The hydrogen hype of the last decade has passed and it is now seemingly substituted by the electric vehicle hype. A technological hype can have both positive as well as negative consequences. On the one hand it attracts sponsors for technology development but on the other hand the high expectations might result in disappointment and subsequent withdrawal of the sponsors. In this paper I ask the question to what extent the car industry has created the hype and how it has done so. The industry’s role is studied through their prototyping activities and accompanying statements on market entry. I conclude that the car industry has indeed inflated the hype, especially through its public statements on market release after the turn of the millennium. Furthermore, the industry has shown a double repertoire of both highly optimistic and more modest statements. From this I take that statements are used deliberately to serve the industry’s interests whenever needed. Without neglecting the positive outcomes of hype, public and private funding for R&D efforts, more modest promises could serve the development of sustainable mobility better.
Technological options can be regarded as variations in an evolutionary development process. The v... more Technological options can be regarded as variations in an evolutionary development process. The variations are put forward by their respective technological communities and are selected by technology selectors. Building on the notion of quasi-evolutionary technology development we show how technological communities secure their position on R&D agendas through feeding and maintaining expectations in arenas of expectations. We examine this process by studying the expectations work of the community that tries to develop metal hydrides for the on-board storage of hydrogen for mobile applications. Metal hydrides are proposed as a promising alternative to gaseous and liquid hydrogen storage but are yet underdeveloped. Its proponents however, succeed in convincing their sponsors of the future potential of metal hydrides. In this paper we show how expectations of this technological option are raised and maintained by its developers and how this has kept them on hydrogen technology agendas for over 40 years.
The notion of dominant designs refers to dominance in the market, hence the literature on dominan... more The notion of dominant designs refers to dominance in the market, hence the literature on dominant designs ignores the selection process that already takes place in pre-market R&D stages of technological innovation. In this paper we address the question to what extent pre-market selection takes place within an industry and how this may lead to dominance of one design over others before the market comes into play. Furthermore we study what selection criteria apply in the absence of actual market criteria. We do so through a historical analysis of design paths for hydrogen passenger cars.
We argue that prototypes are used by firms in their internal search process towards new designs and at the same time as means of communicating technological expectations to competitors and outsiders. In both senses, prototypes can be taken as indicators of design paths in the ongoing search process of an industry.
We analyzed the designs of prototypes of hydrogen passenger cars from the 1970s till 2008. A database is compiled of 224 prototypes of hydrogen passenger cars, listing the car's manufacturer, year of construction, hydrogen conversion technology, fuel cell type, and capacity of its hydrogen storage system. The analysis shows to what extent one design gained dominance and which strategies were adopted by the firms in their search processes.
We conclude that indeed a dominant prototyping design has emerged: the fuel cell combined with high pressure gaseous storage. Actual and expected performance acted as selection criterion, but so did regulation and strategic behaviour of the firms. Especially imitation dynamics, with industry leaders and followers, is a major explanatory factor. Our main theoretical claim is that the selection of a dominant prototyping design is based on an interaction of sets of expectations about future performance of technological components and regulatory pressure that results in herding behaviour of the firms.
Technological Forecasting and Social …, Jan 1, 2012
Abstract There are many competing transition paths toward sustainability and even more competing ... more Abstract There are many competing transition paths toward sustainability and even more competing visions and expectations, while only a limited of number of paths can be supported. In the literature so far, not much attention has been paid to the question: what ...
Two designs compete to become the car of the future: the battery electric and the hydrogen car. E... more Two designs compete to become the car of the future: the battery electric and the hydrogen car. Even though both designs are part of the same trend towards electrification of the drivetrain, they compete in terms of R&D funding, supportive regulation and infrastructure. Both options are developed and tested in so-called technological niches in which they are shielded from regular market forces. The body of literature on technological niches deals with the development of single niches and their relation to the sociotechnical regime and landscape. With this paper we aim to contribute an understanding of the dynamics of the competition between multiple niche technologies.
The competition between the two designs takes place on the level of firms as well as on a global, industry-wide, level. In our case study we describe the competition since the 1990s and show how attention and expectations for both options have alternated in three phases. High hopes and subsequent disappointments of component technologies were main drivers for the alternations. On the local level there is room for multiple options at the same time, but on the global level attention and expectations seem much more focussed on either the one or the other.
2
The hydrogen hype of the last decade has passed and it is now seemingly substituted by the electr... more The hydrogen hype of the last decade has passed and it is now seemingly substituted by the electric vehicle hype. A technological hype can have both positive as well as negative consequences. On the one hand it attracts sponsors for technology development but on the other hand the high expectations might result in disappointment and subsequent withdrawal of the sponsors. In this paper I ask the question to what extent the car industry has created the hype and how it has done so. The industry’s role is studied through their prototyping activities and accompanying statements on market entry. I conclude that the car industry has indeed inflated the hype, especially through its public statements on market release after the turn of the millennium. Furthermore, the industry has shown a double repertoire of both highly optimistic and more modest statements. From this I take that statements are used deliberately to serve the industry’s interests whenever needed. Without neglecting the positive outcomes of hype, public and private funding for R&D efforts, more modest promises could serve the development of sustainable mobility better.
Technological options can be regarded as variations in an evolutionary development process. The v... more Technological options can be regarded as variations in an evolutionary development process. The variations are put forward by their respective technological communities and are selected by technology selectors. Building on the notion of quasi-evolutionary technology development we show how technological communities secure their position on R&D agendas through feeding and maintaining expectations in arenas of expectations. We examine this process by studying the expectations work of the community that tries to develop metal hydrides for the on-board storage of hydrogen for mobile applications. Metal hydrides are proposed as a promising alternative to gaseous and liquid hydrogen storage but are yet underdeveloped. Its proponents however, succeed in convincing their sponsors of the future potential of metal hydrides. In this paper we show how expectations of this technological option are raised and maintained by its developers and how this has kept them on hydrogen technology agendas for over 40 years.
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Papers by Sjoerd Bakker
We argue that prototypes are used by firms in their internal search process towards new designs and at the same time as means of communicating technological expectations to competitors and outsiders. In both senses, prototypes can be taken as indicators of design paths in the ongoing search process of an industry.
We analyzed the designs of prototypes of hydrogen passenger cars from the 1970s till 2008. A database is compiled of 224 prototypes of hydrogen passenger cars, listing the car's manufacturer, year of construction, hydrogen conversion technology, fuel cell type, and capacity of its hydrogen storage system. The analysis shows to what extent one design gained dominance and which strategies were adopted by the firms in their search processes.
We conclude that indeed a dominant prototyping design has emerged: the fuel cell combined with high pressure gaseous storage. Actual and expected performance acted as selection criterion, but so did regulation and strategic behaviour of the firms. Especially imitation dynamics, with industry leaders and followers, is a major explanatory factor. Our main theoretical claim is that the selection of a dominant prototyping design is based on an interaction of sets of expectations about future performance of technological components and regulatory pressure that results in herding behaviour of the firms.
The competition between the two designs takes place on the level of firms as well as on a global, industry-wide, level. In our case study we describe the competition since the 1990s and show how attention and expectations for both options have alternated in three phases. High hopes and subsequent disappointments of component technologies were main drivers for the alternations. On the local level there is room for multiple options at the same time, but on the global level attention and expectations seem much more focussed on either the one or the other.
2
We argue that prototypes are used by firms in their internal search process towards new designs and at the same time as means of communicating technological expectations to competitors and outsiders. In both senses, prototypes can be taken as indicators of design paths in the ongoing search process of an industry.
We analyzed the designs of prototypes of hydrogen passenger cars from the 1970s till 2008. A database is compiled of 224 prototypes of hydrogen passenger cars, listing the car's manufacturer, year of construction, hydrogen conversion technology, fuel cell type, and capacity of its hydrogen storage system. The analysis shows to what extent one design gained dominance and which strategies were adopted by the firms in their search processes.
We conclude that indeed a dominant prototyping design has emerged: the fuel cell combined with high pressure gaseous storage. Actual and expected performance acted as selection criterion, but so did regulation and strategic behaviour of the firms. Especially imitation dynamics, with industry leaders and followers, is a major explanatory factor. Our main theoretical claim is that the selection of a dominant prototyping design is based on an interaction of sets of expectations about future performance of technological components and regulatory pressure that results in herding behaviour of the firms.
The competition between the two designs takes place on the level of firms as well as on a global, industry-wide, level. In our case study we describe the competition since the 1990s and show how attention and expectations for both options have alternated in three phases. High hopes and subsequent disappointments of component technologies were main drivers for the alternations. On the local level there is room for multiple options at the same time, but on the global level attention and expectations seem much more focussed on either the one or the other.
2