Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal, 2016
Early Childhood Caries (ECC) is a serious disease that is about much more than cavities on baby t... more Early Childhood Caries (ECC) is a serious disease that is about much more than cavities on baby teeth. In Canada, it is a growing public health problem with adverse long-term effects on children's physical, emotional and intellectual well-being. The failure to invest in preventive care has resulted in reactive, rather than proactive, measures against this disease. These measures are expensive and a needless drain on costs in the public health-care system. Children with severe ECC end up in hospital; in fact, in Canada, this disease is the most common reason children undergo day surgery. From 2010 to 2012, one in 100 children under age five required day surgery for ECC, with approximately 19,000 of these surgeries performed each year on children under age six. Canadian hospital costs for ECC day surgery in children aged one to five ranged from $1,271 to $1,963 per child, totalling $21.2 million between 2010 and 2012. Children from low-income families, along with aboriginal, immig...
Canada's federal government established the provinces of Saskatchewan and Alberta in 1905, ma... more Canada's federal government established the provinces of Saskatchewan and Alberta in 1905, making them approximately equal in area, population, and economy. Roughly one hundred years later, Alberta has three times the population of Saskatchewan and a gross domestic product (GDP) that is more than four times greater. The creation of the border represents a “natural experiment” that allows us to assess the relative importance of institutions versus geography to explain the divergent development of the twin provinces. While the perception persists that Saskatchewan's political climate hindered that province's development relative to Alberta's, it is Alberta's early lead in manufacturing, and vast mineral endowments, that present a more convincing explanation for the divergence.
... that the policy implications of these perspectives was that money would be better spent ... F... more ... that the policy implications of these perspectives was that money would be better spent ... For a detailed tuition fee picture, see Figure 5.4 in the CAUT Alamanc that shows Average Annual Cost of University Tuition in Canada (2001$), 1972-2002 for 5 different degree categories. ...
We examine the validity of the commonly held view that the ideology and policies of the Cooperati... more We examine the validity of the commonly held view that the ideology and policies of the Cooperative Commonwealth Federation (CCF) governments in Saskatchewan (1944 1964) retarded the development of Saskatchewan’s oil and gas resources. We develop a model to value land with an exhaustible resource under uncertainty. The uncertainty comes from a positive probability of expropriation with zero compensation. This research adds to the existing literature as the model results in the derivation of a simple equation that allows identification and estimation of the effect of expropriation risk, given appropriate data are available. The model is used to evaluate the effect of the CCF on the natural resource industry in Saskatchewan. The tenure of the CCF is used as a proxy for the perceived probability of expropriation. The results indicate the CCF government did affect expenditure on mineral rights in Saskatchewan. More precisely, the effect of the CCF was to reduce the discounting of curren...
ABSTRACT The predictions in the media and from think tanks sound altogether alarming: Saskatchewa... more ABSTRACT The predictions in the media and from think tanks sound altogether alarming: Saskatchewan, with its booming economy, could be facing a worker shortage so severe that it could drastically hobble the province’s ultimate economic potential. While the world craves only more of Saskatchewan’s abundant natural resources, the province won’t possibly be able to keep up, due to a scarcity of workers that could be as significant as one-fifth of the labour supply by 2020. The Saskatchewan government has rushed to analyze the predicament, issuing reports that urgently seek solutions. But it hasn’t really developed any solutions. In fact, it hasn’t done much about the supposedly looming crisis at all. And that, actually, might just be all it can — and should — do.In truth, Saskatchewan can’t be sure it will be facing a serious shortage, or any shortage, at all. And any attempt by the provincial government to substantially intervene in the labour market could cause more problems for employers and the economy, than it addresses. Saskatchewan’s labour market has already shown a remarkable ability to adjust, on its own, to the commodities boom, and what employers today call a shortage, could well just be everyone getting used to a much tighter, but still very functional, labour market.The province’s lack of action did mean it missed a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to redirect a huge cohort of Gen-Y students into training for trades that are in high demand (that cohort is already in its mid-20s and finished, or finishing, its career training). That was a mistake. But one big thing the Saskatchewan government can still do to help employers — and workers — is to stop making the strains on labour worse by launching imminent public infrastructure projects that compete with the private sector for labour. Instead, the province should plan those for when the boom slows down and workers need the jobs. It should also abandon any ideas of ramping up the import of temporary foreign workers to fill short-term job vacancies: those workers have a way of dampening wage signals that would draw more permanent, and therefore desirable, workers to the province.What few things the province could be actively doing, it should do anyway. It should help retrain workers with skills in low-demand for jobs in higher demand. It should recruit migrants from other provinces and overseas to settle in Saskatchewan. It should carefully review its post-secondary education system to minimize drop-out rates from apprenticeship programs and to ensure it is training people to match the economy’s demands. And it should be finding ways to mobilize large portions of the population that could be working, yet aren’t, including underemployed males and Aboriginals, but also the elderly and disabled. If there is, indeed, a shortage somewhere in Saskatchewan’s future, having those people working can only help. But even if there is never a shortage, having large pools of potential labour sitting idle is something that will truly limit Saskatchewan’s economic potential.
Progressive reformers failed to gain support to implement compulsory health insurance in the US a... more Progressive reformers failed to gain support to implement compulsory health insurance in the US after WWI. Modeling results presented in this paper, using a lifecycle model with sickness risk and precautionary savings, support the conclusion that existing voluntary insurance plans were adequate and welfare-enhancing in the US, that compulsory health insurance as proposed would not be welfare-enhancing, and that Americans' preference to self-insure during most of their working lives was rational, utility-maximizing behaviour.
This paper investigates the relationship between health and the business cycle for the Canadian e... more This paper investigates the relationship between health and the business cycle for the Canadian economy. The majority of existing literature shows a procyclical relationship between death rates and indicators of the business cycle, suggesting that recessions are good for one’s health. We use a time series error correction model to determine the short-run and long-run impacts of the unemployment rates on death rates. Our results indicate that temporary slowdowns in economic activity are associated with lower death rates. Moreover, once we stratify the data by sex, we find a long-run negative relationship between the unemployment rate and death rates for both sexes.
Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal, 2016
Early Childhood Caries (ECC) is a serious disease that is about much more than cavities on baby t... more Early Childhood Caries (ECC) is a serious disease that is about much more than cavities on baby teeth. In Canada, it is a growing public health problem with adverse long-term effects on children's physical, emotional and intellectual well-being. The failure to invest in preventive care has resulted in reactive, rather than proactive, measures against this disease. These measures are expensive and a needless drain on costs in the public health-care system. Children with severe ECC end up in hospital; in fact, in Canada, this disease is the most common reason children undergo day surgery. From 2010 to 2012, one in 100 children under age five required day surgery for ECC, with approximately 19,000 of these surgeries performed each year on children under age six. Canadian hospital costs for ECC day surgery in children aged one to five ranged from $1,271 to $1,963 per child, totalling $21.2 million between 2010 and 2012. Children from low-income families, along with aboriginal, immig...
Canada's federal government established the provinces of Saskatchewan and Alberta in 1905, ma... more Canada's federal government established the provinces of Saskatchewan and Alberta in 1905, making them approximately equal in area, population, and economy. Roughly one hundred years later, Alberta has three times the population of Saskatchewan and a gross domestic product (GDP) that is more than four times greater. The creation of the border represents a “natural experiment” that allows us to assess the relative importance of institutions versus geography to explain the divergent development of the twin provinces. While the perception persists that Saskatchewan's political climate hindered that province's development relative to Alberta's, it is Alberta's early lead in manufacturing, and vast mineral endowments, that present a more convincing explanation for the divergence.
... that the policy implications of these perspectives was that money would be better spent ... F... more ... that the policy implications of these perspectives was that money would be better spent ... For a detailed tuition fee picture, see Figure 5.4 in the CAUT Alamanc that shows Average Annual Cost of University Tuition in Canada (2001$), 1972-2002 for 5 different degree categories. ...
We examine the validity of the commonly held view that the ideology and policies of the Cooperati... more We examine the validity of the commonly held view that the ideology and policies of the Cooperative Commonwealth Federation (CCF) governments in Saskatchewan (1944 1964) retarded the development of Saskatchewan’s oil and gas resources. We develop a model to value land with an exhaustible resource under uncertainty. The uncertainty comes from a positive probability of expropriation with zero compensation. This research adds to the existing literature as the model results in the derivation of a simple equation that allows identification and estimation of the effect of expropriation risk, given appropriate data are available. The model is used to evaluate the effect of the CCF on the natural resource industry in Saskatchewan. The tenure of the CCF is used as a proxy for the perceived probability of expropriation. The results indicate the CCF government did affect expenditure on mineral rights in Saskatchewan. More precisely, the effect of the CCF was to reduce the discounting of curren...
ABSTRACT The predictions in the media and from think tanks sound altogether alarming: Saskatchewa... more ABSTRACT The predictions in the media and from think tanks sound altogether alarming: Saskatchewan, with its booming economy, could be facing a worker shortage so severe that it could drastically hobble the province’s ultimate economic potential. While the world craves only more of Saskatchewan’s abundant natural resources, the province won’t possibly be able to keep up, due to a scarcity of workers that could be as significant as one-fifth of the labour supply by 2020. The Saskatchewan government has rushed to analyze the predicament, issuing reports that urgently seek solutions. But it hasn’t really developed any solutions. In fact, it hasn’t done much about the supposedly looming crisis at all. And that, actually, might just be all it can — and should — do.In truth, Saskatchewan can’t be sure it will be facing a serious shortage, or any shortage, at all. And any attempt by the provincial government to substantially intervene in the labour market could cause more problems for employers and the economy, than it addresses. Saskatchewan’s labour market has already shown a remarkable ability to adjust, on its own, to the commodities boom, and what employers today call a shortage, could well just be everyone getting used to a much tighter, but still very functional, labour market.The province’s lack of action did mean it missed a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to redirect a huge cohort of Gen-Y students into training for trades that are in high demand (that cohort is already in its mid-20s and finished, or finishing, its career training). That was a mistake. But one big thing the Saskatchewan government can still do to help employers — and workers — is to stop making the strains on labour worse by launching imminent public infrastructure projects that compete with the private sector for labour. Instead, the province should plan those for when the boom slows down and workers need the jobs. It should also abandon any ideas of ramping up the import of temporary foreign workers to fill short-term job vacancies: those workers have a way of dampening wage signals that would draw more permanent, and therefore desirable, workers to the province.What few things the province could be actively doing, it should do anyway. It should help retrain workers with skills in low-demand for jobs in higher demand. It should recruit migrants from other provinces and overseas to settle in Saskatchewan. It should carefully review its post-secondary education system to minimize drop-out rates from apprenticeship programs and to ensure it is training people to match the economy’s demands. And it should be finding ways to mobilize large portions of the population that could be working, yet aren’t, including underemployed males and Aboriginals, but also the elderly and disabled. If there is, indeed, a shortage somewhere in Saskatchewan’s future, having those people working can only help. But even if there is never a shortage, having large pools of potential labour sitting idle is something that will truly limit Saskatchewan’s economic potential.
Progressive reformers failed to gain support to implement compulsory health insurance in the US a... more Progressive reformers failed to gain support to implement compulsory health insurance in the US after WWI. Modeling results presented in this paper, using a lifecycle model with sickness risk and precautionary savings, support the conclusion that existing voluntary insurance plans were adequate and welfare-enhancing in the US, that compulsory health insurance as proposed would not be welfare-enhancing, and that Americans' preference to self-insure during most of their working lives was rational, utility-maximizing behaviour.
This paper investigates the relationship between health and the business cycle for the Canadian e... more This paper investigates the relationship between health and the business cycle for the Canadian economy. The majority of existing literature shows a procyclical relationship between death rates and indicators of the business cycle, suggesting that recessions are good for one’s health. We use a time series error correction model to determine the short-run and long-run impacts of the unemployment rates on death rates. Our results indicate that temporary slowdowns in economic activity are associated with lower death rates. Moreover, once we stratify the data by sex, we find a long-run negative relationship between the unemployment rate and death rates for both sexes.
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Papers by Herb Emery