The main purpose of the paper is to identify the regional profile induced both by the existing re... more The main purpose of the paper is to identify the regional profile induced both by the existing resources and the level of development. The paper provides reliable information for regional development policies taking into consideration local resources. The research uses the multivariate statistical analysis of the macroeconomic statistical data after 1990. The results of the research pointed out the following
The present article is meant to provide reliable information on regional development policies by ... more The present article is meant to provide reliable information on regional development policies by taking into consideration local resources. The main purpose of the paper is to identify the regional profile induced both by the existing resources and the level of development. The research was made with the help of the multivariate statistical analysis of the macroeconomic statistical data after
A considerable amount of literature has investigated positive economic and social outcomes that l... more A considerable amount of literature has investigated positive economic and social outcomes that learning may have both for individuals and for societies. Better-educated people typically have better health status, lower unemployment, more social connections, and greater engagement in civic and political life. This paper aims to explore the relationship between investments in education and research and the level of quality of life in a country. The investments in education and research are expressed in terms of expenditure on education and research, financial aid to pupils and students and public subsidies to private sector. For the assessment of quality of life there were considered three well-known composite indicators: Human Development Index, Economist Intelligence Unit Quality of Life Index, and Satisfaction with Life Scale. The analysis is done using data on European Union 27 member states, which come from Eurostat database and from specialized institutions’ sites. The study sh...
The recent economic crisis has set the scene for new inquires about the nature of this elusive ph... more The recent economic crisis has set the scene for new inquires about the nature of this elusive phenomenon from both academics and practitioners. Understanding the driving forces behind of the world's economy starts with the comprehension of the components, and the classification thereof. The aim of this article is to divide the countries from the G7 group in leaders and followers in respect to the business cycle and specifically to the crisis. Markov switch models are employed in MATLAB through the MS_Regress to identify the turning points in a seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP series covering the time span 1991-2012. The stochastic model also gives the recession's probability of persistence together with the estimated duration. The results show a clear demarcation among the leaders and the followers, each country playing a different role during each phase of the business cycle. Furthermore, there is a significant quadratic link between the above mentioned probabilities and the duration of the crisis. The significance of this study resides in highlighting the business cycle anatomy for the most influential economic powers of the world, hence proposing a model which can be extended for another sample of countries in order to assess the transmission of the business cycle and especially the crisis, targeting the prevention or at least to attenuate the results thereof.
Given its complex and dynamic nature,
globalization proposes the intriguing challenge to develop ... more Given its complex and dynamic nature, globalization proposes the intriguing challenge to develop new or alternative methods that can estimate its effects at an international scale. The double purpose of the paper is to employ both hard and fuzzy cluster analysis in order to evaluate business cycle transmission among of 55 countries over the time span 1992 – 2011, in order to estimate the effects of globalization, be means of the linkage which exists between the growth rate of the GDP and FDI flows. The results use the enhanced performance of the fuzzy clustering technique and show an increased tendency towards economic convergence, as a result of the globalization process but also due to exogenous events, such as economic and financial crises. The future directions of research will target a broader analysis, using a bigger number of variables and an extensive time span.
The issues of business cycles assessment and most of all forecasting turning
points represent cru... more The issues of business cycles assessment and most of all forecasting turning points represent crucial components in the game of crisis anticipation. The aim of this study is to statistically evaluate the predictive power of several macro economic variables in estimating economic changes and to classify them into either leading or lagging indicators. The importance thereof resides in the fact that, while the leading indicators are useful in anticipating downturns, a change within the structure or the dynamics of the lagging indicators could signal the beginning of an economic upswing. The detection of the turning points in the macroeconomic series, focusing exclusively on the US, is performed by employing Markov chains switching models and the taxonomy of the indicators is awarded accordingly. Results show that the price of gold is a leading indicator, while unemployment is a lagging indicator of the crisis. Further research will include both an enlarged sample of variables and a wider array of countries in order to validate the results.
At the moment, Europe is divided between East and West, the desiderate of an economic and cultura... more At the moment, Europe is divided between East and West, the desiderate of an economic and cultural divers union being yet to come to terms due to regional influence poles. The aim of this paper is to classify a sample of 30 European countries into two fuzzy clusters, based on their trade levels (imports and exports as annual growth rates), in order to estimate the migration between different groups, within the time span 1999 and 2010, determined by economic and politic influences. We employed a fuzzy clusters cmeans analysis, an innovative method which depicts more accurately the economical reality, compared to the hierarchical clusters method. Thus, each entity is assigned a membership degree to each cluster. The analysis indicates that trade is a vehicle of business cycle transmission, hence of globalization.Yet, this channel requires a certain amount of time in order to be effective, the results proving a degree of synchronization which can be related to the waves of accession to the European Union. The novelty of this study is given by the fuzzy cluster analysis which offers a more nuanced approach. Further research will include the extension of the number of variables, including FDI flows, in order to capture both long and short term effects.
The main purpose of the paper is to identify the regional profile induced both by the existing re... more The main purpose of the paper is to identify the regional profile induced both by the existing resources and the level of development. The paper provides reliable information for regional development policies taking into consideration local resources. The research uses the multivariate statistical analysis of the macroeconomic statistical data after 1990. The results of the research pointed out the following
The present article is meant to provide reliable information on regional development policies by ... more The present article is meant to provide reliable information on regional development policies by taking into consideration local resources. The main purpose of the paper is to identify the regional profile induced both by the existing resources and the level of development. The research was made with the help of the multivariate statistical analysis of the macroeconomic statistical data after
A considerable amount of literature has investigated positive economic and social outcomes that l... more A considerable amount of literature has investigated positive economic and social outcomes that learning may have both for individuals and for societies. Better-educated people typically have better health status, lower unemployment, more social connections, and greater engagement in civic and political life. This paper aims to explore the relationship between investments in education and research and the level of quality of life in a country. The investments in education and research are expressed in terms of expenditure on education and research, financial aid to pupils and students and public subsidies to private sector. For the assessment of quality of life there were considered three well-known composite indicators: Human Development Index, Economist Intelligence Unit Quality of Life Index, and Satisfaction with Life Scale. The analysis is done using data on European Union 27 member states, which come from Eurostat database and from specialized institutions’ sites. The study sh...
The recent economic crisis has set the scene for new inquires about the nature of this elusive ph... more The recent economic crisis has set the scene for new inquires about the nature of this elusive phenomenon from both academics and practitioners. Understanding the driving forces behind of the world's economy starts with the comprehension of the components, and the classification thereof. The aim of this article is to divide the countries from the G7 group in leaders and followers in respect to the business cycle and specifically to the crisis. Markov switch models are employed in MATLAB through the MS_Regress to identify the turning points in a seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP series covering the time span 1991-2012. The stochastic model also gives the recession's probability of persistence together with the estimated duration. The results show a clear demarcation among the leaders and the followers, each country playing a different role during each phase of the business cycle. Furthermore, there is a significant quadratic link between the above mentioned probabilities and the duration of the crisis. The significance of this study resides in highlighting the business cycle anatomy for the most influential economic powers of the world, hence proposing a model which can be extended for another sample of countries in order to assess the transmission of the business cycle and especially the crisis, targeting the prevention or at least to attenuate the results thereof.
Given its complex and dynamic nature,
globalization proposes the intriguing challenge to develop ... more Given its complex and dynamic nature, globalization proposes the intriguing challenge to develop new or alternative methods that can estimate its effects at an international scale. The double purpose of the paper is to employ both hard and fuzzy cluster analysis in order to evaluate business cycle transmission among of 55 countries over the time span 1992 – 2011, in order to estimate the effects of globalization, be means of the linkage which exists between the growth rate of the GDP and FDI flows. The results use the enhanced performance of the fuzzy clustering technique and show an increased tendency towards economic convergence, as a result of the globalization process but also due to exogenous events, such as economic and financial crises. The future directions of research will target a broader analysis, using a bigger number of variables and an extensive time span.
The issues of business cycles assessment and most of all forecasting turning
points represent cru... more The issues of business cycles assessment and most of all forecasting turning points represent crucial components in the game of crisis anticipation. The aim of this study is to statistically evaluate the predictive power of several macro economic variables in estimating economic changes and to classify them into either leading or lagging indicators. The importance thereof resides in the fact that, while the leading indicators are useful in anticipating downturns, a change within the structure or the dynamics of the lagging indicators could signal the beginning of an economic upswing. The detection of the turning points in the macroeconomic series, focusing exclusively on the US, is performed by employing Markov chains switching models and the taxonomy of the indicators is awarded accordingly. Results show that the price of gold is a leading indicator, while unemployment is a lagging indicator of the crisis. Further research will include both an enlarged sample of variables and a wider array of countries in order to validate the results.
At the moment, Europe is divided between East and West, the desiderate of an economic and cultura... more At the moment, Europe is divided between East and West, the desiderate of an economic and cultural divers union being yet to come to terms due to regional influence poles. The aim of this paper is to classify a sample of 30 European countries into two fuzzy clusters, based on their trade levels (imports and exports as annual growth rates), in order to estimate the migration between different groups, within the time span 1999 and 2010, determined by economic and politic influences. We employed a fuzzy clusters cmeans analysis, an innovative method which depicts more accurately the economical reality, compared to the hierarchical clusters method. Thus, each entity is assigned a membership degree to each cluster. The analysis indicates that trade is a vehicle of business cycle transmission, hence of globalization.Yet, this channel requires a certain amount of time in order to be effective, the results proving a degree of synchronization which can be related to the waves of accession to the European Union. The novelty of this study is given by the fuzzy cluster analysis which offers a more nuanced approach. Further research will include the extension of the number of variables, including FDI flows, in order to capture both long and short term effects.
Uploads
Papers by Jaba Elisabeta
globalization proposes the intriguing challenge to develop new or
alternative methods that can estimate its effects at an international
scale. The double purpose of the paper is to employ both hard and
fuzzy cluster analysis in order to evaluate business cycle transmission
among of 55 countries over the time span 1992 – 2011, in order to
estimate the effects of globalization, be means of the linkage which
exists between the growth rate of the GDP and FDI flows. The results
use the enhanced performance of the fuzzy clustering technique and
show an increased tendency towards economic convergence, as a
result of the globalization process but also due to exogenous events,
such as economic and financial crises. The future directions of
research will target a broader analysis, using a bigger number of
variables and an extensive time span.
points represent crucial components in the game of crisis anticipation. The aim of
this study is to statistically evaluate the predictive power of several macro economic
variables in estimating economic changes and to classify them into either leading or
lagging indicators. The importance thereof resides in the fact that, while the leading
indicators are useful in anticipating downturns, a change within the structure or the
dynamics of the lagging indicators could signal the beginning of an economic upswing.
The detection of the turning points in the macroeconomic series, focusing exclusively
on the US, is performed by employing Markov chains switching models and the taxonomy
of the indicators is awarded accordingly. Results show that the price of gold is
a leading indicator, while unemployment is a lagging indicator of the crisis. Further research
will include both an enlarged sample of variables and a wider array of countries
in order to validate the results.
globalization proposes the intriguing challenge to develop new or
alternative methods that can estimate its effects at an international
scale. The double purpose of the paper is to employ both hard and
fuzzy cluster analysis in order to evaluate business cycle transmission
among of 55 countries over the time span 1992 – 2011, in order to
estimate the effects of globalization, be means of the linkage which
exists between the growth rate of the GDP and FDI flows. The results
use the enhanced performance of the fuzzy clustering technique and
show an increased tendency towards economic convergence, as a
result of the globalization process but also due to exogenous events,
such as economic and financial crises. The future directions of
research will target a broader analysis, using a bigger number of
variables and an extensive time span.
points represent crucial components in the game of crisis anticipation. The aim of
this study is to statistically evaluate the predictive power of several macro economic
variables in estimating economic changes and to classify them into either leading or
lagging indicators. The importance thereof resides in the fact that, while the leading
indicators are useful in anticipating downturns, a change within the structure or the
dynamics of the lagging indicators could signal the beginning of an economic upswing.
The detection of the turning points in the macroeconomic series, focusing exclusively
on the US, is performed by employing Markov chains switching models and the taxonomy
of the indicators is awarded accordingly. Results show that the price of gold is
a leading indicator, while unemployment is a lagging indicator of the crisis. Further research
will include both an enlarged sample of variables and a wider array of countries
in order to validate the results.