My work on pollinator loss: http://www.bijensterfte.nl/en/taxonomy/term/10 Phone: +31-30-2537631 Address: Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University Heidelberglaan 2 3584 CS Utrecht The Netherlands
Over the past decades, the Precautionary Principle (PP) has become an underlying rationale for a ... more Over the past decades, the Precautionary Principle (PP) has become an underlying rationale for a large and increasing number of international treaties and declarations in the fields of sustainable development, environmental protection, health, trade, and food safety. In its most basic form, the PP is a strategy to cope with scientific uncertainties in the assessment and management of risks. It is about the wisdom of action under uncertainty.
Over the past decades, both wild and domesticated insect pollinators are in dramatic decline, whi... more Over the past decades, both wild and domesticated insect pollinators are in dramatic decline, which puts at stake the existence of species, ecosystem resilience and global food security. Globally, 87 of major food crops depend on animal pollination. Together these account for 35 % of the world food production volume. Pollinator mediated crops are indispensable for essential micronutrients in the human diet. Many ornamental plants as well as crops for fibre, fodder, biofuels, timber and phytopharmaceuticals also depend on insect pollinators. This article aims to map the current situation of pollinators worldwide, with a focus on the critical role of pollinators in the human food chain and ecosystem sustainability, their intrinsic and extrinsic value, as well as the causes of their declines and the interventions needed to conserve them, in order to develop an argument for the importance of conserving and restoring pollinator populations and diversity. The present pollinator crisis threatens global and local food security, can worsen the problems of hidden hunger, erodes ecosystem resilience, and can destabilise ecosystems that form our life support system. An integrated approach that simultaneously addresses the key drivers is needed. This includes creation and restoration of floral and nesting resources, a global phase out of prophylactic use of neonicotinoids and fipronil, improvement of test protocols in authorisation of agrochemicals, and restoration and maintenance of independence in regulatory science. The authors argue that an international treaty for global pollinator stewardship and pollinator ecosystem restoration should be initiated in order to systemically counteract the current crisis.
Over the past decades, both wild and domesticated insect pollinators are in dramatic decline, whi... more Over the past decades, both wild and domesticated insect pollinators are in dramatic decline, which puts at stake the existence of species, ecosystem resilience and global food security. Globally, 87 of major food crops depend on animal pollination. Together these account for 35 % of the world food production volume. Pollinator mediated crops are indispensable for essential micronutrients in the human diet. Many ornamental plants as well as crops for fibre, fodder, biofuels, timber and phytopharmaceuticals also depend on insect pollinators. This article aims to map the current situation of pollinators worldwide, with a focus on the critical role of pollinators in the human food chain and ecosystem sustainability, their intrinsic and extrinsic value, as well as the causes of their declines and the interventions needed to conserve them, in order to develop an argument for the importance of conserving and restoring pollinator populations and diversity. The present pollinator crisis threatens global and local food security, can worsen the problems of hidden hunger, erodes ecosystem resilience, and can destabilise ecosystems that form our life support system. An integrated approach that simultaneously addresses the key drivers is needed. This includes creation and restoration of floral and nesting resources, a global phase out of prophylactic use of neonicotinoids and fipronil, improvement of test protocols in authorisation of agrochemicals, and restoration and maintenance of independence in regulatory science. The authors argue that an international treaty for global pollinator stewardship and pollinator ecosystem restoration should be initiated in order to systemically counteract the current crisis.
In this paper we explored the problems of uncertainty management in Integrated Assessment Models ... more In this paper we explored the problems of uncertainty management in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of Climate Change in relation to their mission to model the entire causal chain and to guide and inform the climate policy debate and the negotiations on the climate convention. We have identified areas for improvement in uncertainty management in IAMs and we propose a methodology, based on the work by Funtowicz and Ravetz, for disentangling the uncertainty problem in IAMs. This methodology will enable us to assess the quality of the model results and to identify the weakest links in the models.
Key Messages
• Analysing, characterising, and dealing with uncertainty forms an integral
part of ... more Key Messages • Analysing, characterising, and dealing with uncertainty forms an integral part of establishing and implementing climate adaptation policy. • The classical elements used in uncertainty assessment (statistics, scenarios and recognised ignorance) can be expanded toward fi ve principal uncertainty dimensions that are crucial for informing/supporting adaptation decision-making: location, level, nature, qualifi cation of knowledge base, and value-ladenness. • In practice, to deal with uncertainties, but also because of time and budget constraints, uncertainty assessments may follow a three step approach: (1) identify and characterise sources of uncertainty; (2) weigh, appraise, and prioritise uncertainties; and (3) select and apply methods for dealing with uncertainties in decision- making and policy. • Based on political and societal preferences, adaptation strategies could either use top-down or bottom-up approaches considering adaptation actions based on the best prediction, robustness, or resilience.
Methods: The workshop focused on: 1) the likelihood of causal relationships with key health endpo... more Methods: The workshop focused on: 1) the likelihood of causal relationships with key health endpoints, and 2) the likelihood of causal pathways for cardiac events. Selected through a systematic peer-nomination procedure, twelve European experts (epidemiologists, toxicologists and clinicians) attended the workshop. Individual expert judgments in the form of ratings of the likelihood of causal relationships and pathways were obtained using a confidence scheme adapted from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Integrated assessment (IA) can be defined as an interdisciplinary
process of combining, interpret... more Integrated assessment (IA) can be defined as an interdisciplinary process of combining, interpreting and communicating knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines in such a way that the whole cause–effect chain of a problem can be evaluated from a synoptic perspective with two characteristics: (i) it should have added value compared to single disciplinary assessment; and (ii) it should provide useful information to decision makers (Rotmans and Dowlatabadi, 1997). Thus (IA) is an iterative participatory process that links knowledge (science) and action (policy) regarding complex global change issues such as acidification and climate change. Assessment comprises the analysis and review of information derived from research, for the purpose of helping someone in a position of responsibility to evaluate possible actions or think about a problem. In this context, assessment thus means assembling, summarizing, organizing, interpreting, and possibly reconciling pieces of existing knowledge, and communicating them so that they are relevant and helpful to an intelligent but inexpert decision-maker (Parson, 1995). Providing such a synoptic view required new analytical tools and procedures to integrate a wide range of disciplinary knowledge. As Parson (1995) phrased it: “to make rational, informed social decisions on such complex, long-term, uncertain issues as global climate change, the capacity to integrate, reconcile, organize, and communicate knowledge across domains – to do integrated assessment – is essential.” IA has emerged as an approach that is suitable for accommodating the uncertainties, complexities and value diversities of issues such as climate change.
In order to enable anticipation and proactive adaptation, local decision makers increasingly seek... more In order to enable anticipation and proactive adaptation, local decision makers increasingly seek detailed foresight about regional and local impacts of climate change. To this end, the Netherlands Models and Data-Centre implemented a pilot chain of sequentially linked models to project local climate impacts on hydrology, agriculture and nature under different national climate scenarios for a small region in the east of the Netherlands named Baakse Beek. The chain of models sequentially linked in that pilot includes a (future) weather generator and models of respectively subsurface hydrogeology, ground water stocks and flows, soil chemistry, vegetation development, crop yield and nature quality. These models typically have mismatching time step sizes and grid cell sizes. The linking of these models unavoidably involves the making of model assumptions that can hardly be validated, such as those needed to bridge the mismatches in spatial and temporal scales. Here we present and apply a method for the systematic critical appraisal of model assumptions that seeks to identify and characterize the weakest assumptions in a model chain. The critical appraisal of assumptions presented in this paper has been carried out ex-post. For the case of the climate impact model chain for Baakse Beek, the three most problematic assumptions were found to be: land use and land management kept constant over time; model linking of (daily) ground water model output to the (yearly) vegetation model around the root zone; and aggregation of daily output of the soil hydrology model into yearly input of a so called 'mineralization reduction factor' (calculated from annual average soil pH and daily soil hydrology) in the soil chemistry model. Overall, the method for critical appraisal of model assumptions presented and tested in this paper yields a rich qualitative insight in model uncertainty and model quality. It promotes reflectivity and learning in the modelling community, and leads to well informed recommendations for model improvement.
The sheer number of attempts to define and classify uncertainty reveals an awareness of its
impor... more The sheer number of attempts to define and classify uncertainty reveals an awareness of its importance in environmental science for policy, though the nature of uncertainty is often misunderstood. The interdisciplinary field of uncertainty analysis is unstable; there are currently several incomplete notions of uncertainty leading to different and incompatible uncertainty classifications. One of the most salient shortcomings of present-day practice is that most of these classifications focus on quantifying uncertainty while ignoring the qualitative aspects that tend to be decisive in the interface between science and policy. Consequently, the current practices of uncertainty analysis contribute to increasing the perceived precision of scientific knowledge, but do not adequately address its lack of sociopolitical relevance. The ‘‘positivistic’’ uncertainty analysis models (like those that dominate the fields of climate change modelling and nuclear or chemical risk assessment) have little social relevance, as they do not influence negotiations between stakeholders. From the perspective of the science-policy interface, the current practices of uncertainty analysis are incomplete and incorrectly focused. We argue that although scientific knowledge produced and used in a context of political decision-making embodies traditional scientific characteristics, it also holds additional properties linked to its influence on social, political, and economic relations. Therefore, the significance of uncertainty cannot be assessed based on quality criteria that refer to the scientific content only; uncertainty must also include quality criteria specific to the properties and roles of this scientific knowledge within political, social, and economic contexts and processes. We propose a conceptual framework designed to account for such substantive, contextual, and procedural criteria of knowledge quality. At the same time, the proposed framework includes and synthesizes the various classes of uncertainty highlighted in the literature.
About a decade ago, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) unwittingly embarked on... more About a decade ago, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) unwittingly embarked on a transition from a technocratic model of science advising to the paradigm of ‘‘post-normal science’’ (PNS). In response to a scandal around uncertainty management in 1999, a Guidance for ‘‘Uncertainty Assessment and Communication’’ was developed with advice from the initiators of the PNS concept and was introduced in 2003. This was followed in 2007 by a ‘‘Stakeholder Participation’’ Guidance. In this article, the authors provide a combined insider/outsider perspective on the transition process. The authors assess the extent to which the PNS paradigm has delivered new approaches in the agency’s practice and analyze two projects—on long-term options for Dutch sustainable development policy and for urban development policy—the latter in somewhat more detail. The authors identify several paradoxes PBL encounters when putting the PNS concept into practice. It is concluded that an openness to other styles of work than the technocratic model has become visible, but that the introduction of the PNS paradigm is still in its early stage.
The contribution of nuclear power to a sustainable energy future is a contested issue. This paper... more The contribution of nuclear power to a sustainable energy future is a contested issue. This paper presents a critical review of an attempt to objectify this debate through the calculation of the external costs of a potential large-scale nuclear accident in the ExternE project. A careful dissection of the ExternE approach resulted in a list of 30 calculation steps and assumptions, from which the 6 most contentious ones were selected through a stakeholder internet survey. The policy robustness and relevance of these key assumptions were then assessed in a workshop using the concept of a 'pedigree of knowledge'. Overall, the workshop outcomes revealed the stakeholder and expert panel's scepticism about the assumptions made: generally these were considered not very plausible, subjected to disagreement, and to a large extent inspired by contextual factors. Such criticism indicates a limited validity and useability of the calculated nuclear accident externality as a trustworthy sustainability indicator. Furthermore, it is our contention that the ExternE project could benefit greatly – in terms of gaining public trust – from employing highly visible procedures of extended peer review such as the pedigree assessment applied to our specific case of the external costs of a potential large-scale nuclear accident.
Climate change is one of the most pressing global problems of our time. Two major responses have ... more Climate change is one of the most pressing global problems of our time. Two major responses have emerged to deal with this issue: mitigation and adaptation. In general, climate policy has mostly focused on mitigation – i.e., the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and/or the enhancement of sinks – with instruments such as the Kyoto Protocol. While there is a wide consensus among climate experts and policy makers that mitigation of climate change is and should remain the prime focus of climate policy, it is increasingly recognized that adaptation to climate change has become unavoidable. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has shown that even under optimistic assumptions for the success of present-day mitigation efforts and policies, human activity is likely to lead to further climate change with possibly severe impacts (IPCC, 2007a). The Stern review noted that adaptation is the only response available for the impacts that will occur over the next several decades before mitigation measures can have an effect (Stern, 2007).
There is some uncertainty in the fisheries science –policy interface. Although progress has been ... more There is some uncertainty in the fisheries science –policy interface. Although progress has been made towards more transparency and participation in fisheries science in ICES Areas, routine use of state-of-the-art quantitative and qualitative tools to address uncertainty systematically is still lacking. Fisheries science that gives advice to policy-making is plagued by uncertainties; the stakes of the policies are high and value-laden and need therefore to be treated as an example of " post-normal science " (PNS). To achieve robust govern-ance, understanding of the characteristics and implications of the scientific uncertainties for management strategies need to come to the centre of the table. This can be achieved using state-of-the-art tools such as pedigree matrices and uncertainty matrices, as developed by PNS scholars and used in similar science – policy arenas on other complex issues. An explicit extension of the peer community within maritime systems will be required to put these new tools in place. These new competences become even more important as many countries within the ICES Area are now embarking on new policies.
One of the major issues hampering the formulation of uncontested policy decisions on contemporary... more One of the major issues hampering the formulation of uncontested policy decisions on contemporary risks is the presence of uncertainties in various stages of the policy cycle. In literature, different lines are suggested to address the problem of provisional and uncertain evidence. Reflective approaches such as pedigree analysis can be used to explore the quality of evidence when quantification of uncertainties is at stake. One of the issues where the quality of evidence impedes policy making, is the case of electromagnetic fields. In this case, a (statistical) association was suggested with an increased risk on childhood leukaemia in the vicinity of overhead power lines. A biophysical mechanism that could support this association was not found till date however. The Dutch government bases its policy concerning overhead power lines on the precautionary principle. For The Netherlands, previous studies have assessed the potential number of extra cases of childhood leukaemia due to the presence over overhead power lines. However, such a quantification of the health risk of EMF entails a (large) number of assumptions, both prior to and in the calculation chain. In this study, these assumptions were prioritized and critically appraised in an expert elicitation workshop, using a pedigree matrix for characterization of assumptions in assessments. It appeared that assumptions that were regarded to be important in quantifying the health risks show a high value-ladenness. The results show that, given the present state of knowledge, quantification of the health risks of EMF is premature. We consider the current implementation of the precautionary principle by the Dutch government to be adequate.
Climate change is associated with various risks, such as flooding and heat stress. So far, most r... more Climate change is associated with various risks, such as flooding and heat stress. So far, most research has concentrated on the identification and quantification of these risks as well as the development of adaptation measures. Yet much less is known about how planners actually perceive and deal with climate change, and why. This paper focuses on the governance of two climate change-related risks in urban areas in the Netherlands, namely heat stress and flooding from rainfall and rivers. Heat stress hardly seems to be perceived as an urgent problem, mainly because there is no clear 'problem owner'. Because municipalities are responsible for rain and sewage water management and partly for river flooding, increased flood risk is more often recognised as a (potential) problem. Despite the rather low sense of urgency regarding these two climate change-induced risks, urban planners are, or envisage, investing in more open water and public green areas. Heat stress and flood risks from rainfall are not the reasons per se, but primarily act as additional arguments to legitimise these measures, which should contribute to sustainable urban development in general. Our analysis suggests a gap between the perceived urgency of proactive adaptation to climate change by scientists and the perceptions of planners. Climate science research could enhance its contribution to urban planning by providing conceivable projections of climate change impacts as well as by developing adaptation measures that serve multiple purposes and strategies to successfully implement these.
Uncertainty complexity and dissent make climate change hard to tackle with normal scientific proc... more Uncertainty complexity and dissent make climate change hard to tackle with normal scientific procedures. In a post-normal perspective the normal science task of " getting the facts right " is still regarded as necessary but no longer as fully feasible nor as sufficient to interface science and policy. It needs to be complemented with a task of exploring the relevance of deep uncertainty and ignorance that limit our ability to establish objective, reliable , and valid facts. This article explores the implications of this notion for the climate science policy interface. According to its political configuration the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) adopted a " speaking consensus to power " approach that sees uncertainty and dissent as a problematic lack of unequivocalness (multiple contradictory truths that need to be mediated into a consensus). This approach can be distinguished from two other interface strategies: the " speaking truth to power approach, " seeing uncertainties as a temporary lack of perfection in the knowledge (truth with error bars) and the " working deliberatively within imperfections " approach, accepting uncertainty and scientific dissent as facts of life (irreducible ignorance) of which the policy relevance needs be explored explicitly. The article recommends more openness for dissent and explicit reflection on ignorance in IPCC process and reporting.
Background: Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in kn... more Background: Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. Methods: We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discussed its implications for adaptation policy. A questionnaire-based expert elicitation was performed using an ordinal scoring scale. Experts were asked to indicate the level of precision with which health risks can be estimated, given the present state of knowledge. We assessed the individual scores, the expertise-weighted descriptive statistics, and the argumentation given for each score. Suggestions were made for how dealing with uncertainties could be taken into account in climate change adaptation policy strategies. Results: The results showed that the direction of change could be indicated for most anticipated health effects. For several potential effects, too little knowledge exists to indicate whether any impact will occur, or whether the impact will be positive or negative. For several effects, rough 'order-of-magnitude' estimates were considered possible. Factors limiting health impact quantification include: lack of data, multi-causality, unknown impacts considering a high-quality health system, complex cause-effect relations leading to multi-directional impacts, possible changes of present-day response-relations, and difficulties in predicting local climate impacts. Participants considered heat-related mortality and non-endemic vector-borne diseases particularly relevant for climate change adaptation.
Over the past decades, the Precautionary Principle (PP) has become an underlying rationale for a ... more Over the past decades, the Precautionary Principle (PP) has become an underlying rationale for a large and increasing number of international treaties and declarations in the fields of sustainable development, environmental protection, health, trade, and food safety. In its most basic form, the PP is a strategy to cope with scientific uncertainties in the assessment and management of risks. It is about the wisdom of action under uncertainty.
Over the past decades, both wild and domesticated insect pollinators are in dramatic decline, whi... more Over the past decades, both wild and domesticated insect pollinators are in dramatic decline, which puts at stake the existence of species, ecosystem resilience and global food security. Globally, 87 of major food crops depend on animal pollination. Together these account for 35 % of the world food production volume. Pollinator mediated crops are indispensable for essential micronutrients in the human diet. Many ornamental plants as well as crops for fibre, fodder, biofuels, timber and phytopharmaceuticals also depend on insect pollinators. This article aims to map the current situation of pollinators worldwide, with a focus on the critical role of pollinators in the human food chain and ecosystem sustainability, their intrinsic and extrinsic value, as well as the causes of their declines and the interventions needed to conserve them, in order to develop an argument for the importance of conserving and restoring pollinator populations and diversity. The present pollinator crisis threatens global and local food security, can worsen the problems of hidden hunger, erodes ecosystem resilience, and can destabilise ecosystems that form our life support system. An integrated approach that simultaneously addresses the key drivers is needed. This includes creation and restoration of floral and nesting resources, a global phase out of prophylactic use of neonicotinoids and fipronil, improvement of test protocols in authorisation of agrochemicals, and restoration and maintenance of independence in regulatory science. The authors argue that an international treaty for global pollinator stewardship and pollinator ecosystem restoration should be initiated in order to systemically counteract the current crisis.
Over the past decades, both wild and domesticated insect pollinators are in dramatic decline, whi... more Over the past decades, both wild and domesticated insect pollinators are in dramatic decline, which puts at stake the existence of species, ecosystem resilience and global food security. Globally, 87 of major food crops depend on animal pollination. Together these account for 35 % of the world food production volume. Pollinator mediated crops are indispensable for essential micronutrients in the human diet. Many ornamental plants as well as crops for fibre, fodder, biofuels, timber and phytopharmaceuticals also depend on insect pollinators. This article aims to map the current situation of pollinators worldwide, with a focus on the critical role of pollinators in the human food chain and ecosystem sustainability, their intrinsic and extrinsic value, as well as the causes of their declines and the interventions needed to conserve them, in order to develop an argument for the importance of conserving and restoring pollinator populations and diversity. The present pollinator crisis threatens global and local food security, can worsen the problems of hidden hunger, erodes ecosystem resilience, and can destabilise ecosystems that form our life support system. An integrated approach that simultaneously addresses the key drivers is needed. This includes creation and restoration of floral and nesting resources, a global phase out of prophylactic use of neonicotinoids and fipronil, improvement of test protocols in authorisation of agrochemicals, and restoration and maintenance of independence in regulatory science. The authors argue that an international treaty for global pollinator stewardship and pollinator ecosystem restoration should be initiated in order to systemically counteract the current crisis.
In this paper we explored the problems of uncertainty management in Integrated Assessment Models ... more In this paper we explored the problems of uncertainty management in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of Climate Change in relation to their mission to model the entire causal chain and to guide and inform the climate policy debate and the negotiations on the climate convention. We have identified areas for improvement in uncertainty management in IAMs and we propose a methodology, based on the work by Funtowicz and Ravetz, for disentangling the uncertainty problem in IAMs. This methodology will enable us to assess the quality of the model results and to identify the weakest links in the models.
Key Messages
• Analysing, characterising, and dealing with uncertainty forms an integral
part of ... more Key Messages • Analysing, characterising, and dealing with uncertainty forms an integral part of establishing and implementing climate adaptation policy. • The classical elements used in uncertainty assessment (statistics, scenarios and recognised ignorance) can be expanded toward fi ve principal uncertainty dimensions that are crucial for informing/supporting adaptation decision-making: location, level, nature, qualifi cation of knowledge base, and value-ladenness. • In practice, to deal with uncertainties, but also because of time and budget constraints, uncertainty assessments may follow a three step approach: (1) identify and characterise sources of uncertainty; (2) weigh, appraise, and prioritise uncertainties; and (3) select and apply methods for dealing with uncertainties in decision- making and policy. • Based on political and societal preferences, adaptation strategies could either use top-down or bottom-up approaches considering adaptation actions based on the best prediction, robustness, or resilience.
Methods: The workshop focused on: 1) the likelihood of causal relationships with key health endpo... more Methods: The workshop focused on: 1) the likelihood of causal relationships with key health endpoints, and 2) the likelihood of causal pathways for cardiac events. Selected through a systematic peer-nomination procedure, twelve European experts (epidemiologists, toxicologists and clinicians) attended the workshop. Individual expert judgments in the form of ratings of the likelihood of causal relationships and pathways were obtained using a confidence scheme adapted from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Integrated assessment (IA) can be defined as an interdisciplinary
process of combining, interpret... more Integrated assessment (IA) can be defined as an interdisciplinary process of combining, interpreting and communicating knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines in such a way that the whole cause–effect chain of a problem can be evaluated from a synoptic perspective with two characteristics: (i) it should have added value compared to single disciplinary assessment; and (ii) it should provide useful information to decision makers (Rotmans and Dowlatabadi, 1997). Thus (IA) is an iterative participatory process that links knowledge (science) and action (policy) regarding complex global change issues such as acidification and climate change. Assessment comprises the analysis and review of information derived from research, for the purpose of helping someone in a position of responsibility to evaluate possible actions or think about a problem. In this context, assessment thus means assembling, summarizing, organizing, interpreting, and possibly reconciling pieces of existing knowledge, and communicating them so that they are relevant and helpful to an intelligent but inexpert decision-maker (Parson, 1995). Providing such a synoptic view required new analytical tools and procedures to integrate a wide range of disciplinary knowledge. As Parson (1995) phrased it: “to make rational, informed social decisions on such complex, long-term, uncertain issues as global climate change, the capacity to integrate, reconcile, organize, and communicate knowledge across domains – to do integrated assessment – is essential.” IA has emerged as an approach that is suitable for accommodating the uncertainties, complexities and value diversities of issues such as climate change.
In order to enable anticipation and proactive adaptation, local decision makers increasingly seek... more In order to enable anticipation and proactive adaptation, local decision makers increasingly seek detailed foresight about regional and local impacts of climate change. To this end, the Netherlands Models and Data-Centre implemented a pilot chain of sequentially linked models to project local climate impacts on hydrology, agriculture and nature under different national climate scenarios for a small region in the east of the Netherlands named Baakse Beek. The chain of models sequentially linked in that pilot includes a (future) weather generator and models of respectively subsurface hydrogeology, ground water stocks and flows, soil chemistry, vegetation development, crop yield and nature quality. These models typically have mismatching time step sizes and grid cell sizes. The linking of these models unavoidably involves the making of model assumptions that can hardly be validated, such as those needed to bridge the mismatches in spatial and temporal scales. Here we present and apply a method for the systematic critical appraisal of model assumptions that seeks to identify and characterize the weakest assumptions in a model chain. The critical appraisal of assumptions presented in this paper has been carried out ex-post. For the case of the climate impact model chain for Baakse Beek, the three most problematic assumptions were found to be: land use and land management kept constant over time; model linking of (daily) ground water model output to the (yearly) vegetation model around the root zone; and aggregation of daily output of the soil hydrology model into yearly input of a so called 'mineralization reduction factor' (calculated from annual average soil pH and daily soil hydrology) in the soil chemistry model. Overall, the method for critical appraisal of model assumptions presented and tested in this paper yields a rich qualitative insight in model uncertainty and model quality. It promotes reflectivity and learning in the modelling community, and leads to well informed recommendations for model improvement.
The sheer number of attempts to define and classify uncertainty reveals an awareness of its
impor... more The sheer number of attempts to define and classify uncertainty reveals an awareness of its importance in environmental science for policy, though the nature of uncertainty is often misunderstood. The interdisciplinary field of uncertainty analysis is unstable; there are currently several incomplete notions of uncertainty leading to different and incompatible uncertainty classifications. One of the most salient shortcomings of present-day practice is that most of these classifications focus on quantifying uncertainty while ignoring the qualitative aspects that tend to be decisive in the interface between science and policy. Consequently, the current practices of uncertainty analysis contribute to increasing the perceived precision of scientific knowledge, but do not adequately address its lack of sociopolitical relevance. The ‘‘positivistic’’ uncertainty analysis models (like those that dominate the fields of climate change modelling and nuclear or chemical risk assessment) have little social relevance, as they do not influence negotiations between stakeholders. From the perspective of the science-policy interface, the current practices of uncertainty analysis are incomplete and incorrectly focused. We argue that although scientific knowledge produced and used in a context of political decision-making embodies traditional scientific characteristics, it also holds additional properties linked to its influence on social, political, and economic relations. Therefore, the significance of uncertainty cannot be assessed based on quality criteria that refer to the scientific content only; uncertainty must also include quality criteria specific to the properties and roles of this scientific knowledge within political, social, and economic contexts and processes. We propose a conceptual framework designed to account for such substantive, contextual, and procedural criteria of knowledge quality. At the same time, the proposed framework includes and synthesizes the various classes of uncertainty highlighted in the literature.
About a decade ago, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) unwittingly embarked on... more About a decade ago, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) unwittingly embarked on a transition from a technocratic model of science advising to the paradigm of ‘‘post-normal science’’ (PNS). In response to a scandal around uncertainty management in 1999, a Guidance for ‘‘Uncertainty Assessment and Communication’’ was developed with advice from the initiators of the PNS concept and was introduced in 2003. This was followed in 2007 by a ‘‘Stakeholder Participation’’ Guidance. In this article, the authors provide a combined insider/outsider perspective on the transition process. The authors assess the extent to which the PNS paradigm has delivered new approaches in the agency’s practice and analyze two projects—on long-term options for Dutch sustainable development policy and for urban development policy—the latter in somewhat more detail. The authors identify several paradoxes PBL encounters when putting the PNS concept into practice. It is concluded that an openness to other styles of work than the technocratic model has become visible, but that the introduction of the PNS paradigm is still in its early stage.
The contribution of nuclear power to a sustainable energy future is a contested issue. This paper... more The contribution of nuclear power to a sustainable energy future is a contested issue. This paper presents a critical review of an attempt to objectify this debate through the calculation of the external costs of a potential large-scale nuclear accident in the ExternE project. A careful dissection of the ExternE approach resulted in a list of 30 calculation steps and assumptions, from which the 6 most contentious ones were selected through a stakeholder internet survey. The policy robustness and relevance of these key assumptions were then assessed in a workshop using the concept of a 'pedigree of knowledge'. Overall, the workshop outcomes revealed the stakeholder and expert panel's scepticism about the assumptions made: generally these were considered not very plausible, subjected to disagreement, and to a large extent inspired by contextual factors. Such criticism indicates a limited validity and useability of the calculated nuclear accident externality as a trustworthy sustainability indicator. Furthermore, it is our contention that the ExternE project could benefit greatly – in terms of gaining public trust – from employing highly visible procedures of extended peer review such as the pedigree assessment applied to our specific case of the external costs of a potential large-scale nuclear accident.
Climate change is one of the most pressing global problems of our time. Two major responses have ... more Climate change is one of the most pressing global problems of our time. Two major responses have emerged to deal with this issue: mitigation and adaptation. In general, climate policy has mostly focused on mitigation – i.e., the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and/or the enhancement of sinks – with instruments such as the Kyoto Protocol. While there is a wide consensus among climate experts and policy makers that mitigation of climate change is and should remain the prime focus of climate policy, it is increasingly recognized that adaptation to climate change has become unavoidable. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has shown that even under optimistic assumptions for the success of present-day mitigation efforts and policies, human activity is likely to lead to further climate change with possibly severe impacts (IPCC, 2007a). The Stern review noted that adaptation is the only response available for the impacts that will occur over the next several decades before mitigation measures can have an effect (Stern, 2007).
There is some uncertainty in the fisheries science –policy interface. Although progress has been ... more There is some uncertainty in the fisheries science –policy interface. Although progress has been made towards more transparency and participation in fisheries science in ICES Areas, routine use of state-of-the-art quantitative and qualitative tools to address uncertainty systematically is still lacking. Fisheries science that gives advice to policy-making is plagued by uncertainties; the stakes of the policies are high and value-laden and need therefore to be treated as an example of " post-normal science " (PNS). To achieve robust govern-ance, understanding of the characteristics and implications of the scientific uncertainties for management strategies need to come to the centre of the table. This can be achieved using state-of-the-art tools such as pedigree matrices and uncertainty matrices, as developed by PNS scholars and used in similar science – policy arenas on other complex issues. An explicit extension of the peer community within maritime systems will be required to put these new tools in place. These new competences become even more important as many countries within the ICES Area are now embarking on new policies.
One of the major issues hampering the formulation of uncontested policy decisions on contemporary... more One of the major issues hampering the formulation of uncontested policy decisions on contemporary risks is the presence of uncertainties in various stages of the policy cycle. In literature, different lines are suggested to address the problem of provisional and uncertain evidence. Reflective approaches such as pedigree analysis can be used to explore the quality of evidence when quantification of uncertainties is at stake. One of the issues where the quality of evidence impedes policy making, is the case of electromagnetic fields. In this case, a (statistical) association was suggested with an increased risk on childhood leukaemia in the vicinity of overhead power lines. A biophysical mechanism that could support this association was not found till date however. The Dutch government bases its policy concerning overhead power lines on the precautionary principle. For The Netherlands, previous studies have assessed the potential number of extra cases of childhood leukaemia due to the presence over overhead power lines. However, such a quantification of the health risk of EMF entails a (large) number of assumptions, both prior to and in the calculation chain. In this study, these assumptions were prioritized and critically appraised in an expert elicitation workshop, using a pedigree matrix for characterization of assumptions in assessments. It appeared that assumptions that were regarded to be important in quantifying the health risks show a high value-ladenness. The results show that, given the present state of knowledge, quantification of the health risks of EMF is premature. We consider the current implementation of the precautionary principle by the Dutch government to be adequate.
Climate change is associated with various risks, such as flooding and heat stress. So far, most r... more Climate change is associated with various risks, such as flooding and heat stress. So far, most research has concentrated on the identification and quantification of these risks as well as the development of adaptation measures. Yet much less is known about how planners actually perceive and deal with climate change, and why. This paper focuses on the governance of two climate change-related risks in urban areas in the Netherlands, namely heat stress and flooding from rainfall and rivers. Heat stress hardly seems to be perceived as an urgent problem, mainly because there is no clear 'problem owner'. Because municipalities are responsible for rain and sewage water management and partly for river flooding, increased flood risk is more often recognised as a (potential) problem. Despite the rather low sense of urgency regarding these two climate change-induced risks, urban planners are, or envisage, investing in more open water and public green areas. Heat stress and flood risks from rainfall are not the reasons per se, but primarily act as additional arguments to legitimise these measures, which should contribute to sustainable urban development in general. Our analysis suggests a gap between the perceived urgency of proactive adaptation to climate change by scientists and the perceptions of planners. Climate science research could enhance its contribution to urban planning by providing conceivable projections of climate change impacts as well as by developing adaptation measures that serve multiple purposes and strategies to successfully implement these.
Uncertainty complexity and dissent make climate change hard to tackle with normal scientific proc... more Uncertainty complexity and dissent make climate change hard to tackle with normal scientific procedures. In a post-normal perspective the normal science task of " getting the facts right " is still regarded as necessary but no longer as fully feasible nor as sufficient to interface science and policy. It needs to be complemented with a task of exploring the relevance of deep uncertainty and ignorance that limit our ability to establish objective, reliable , and valid facts. This article explores the implications of this notion for the climate science policy interface. According to its political configuration the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) adopted a " speaking consensus to power " approach that sees uncertainty and dissent as a problematic lack of unequivocalness (multiple contradictory truths that need to be mediated into a consensus). This approach can be distinguished from two other interface strategies: the " speaking truth to power approach, " seeing uncertainties as a temporary lack of perfection in the knowledge (truth with error bars) and the " working deliberatively within imperfections " approach, accepting uncertainty and scientific dissent as facts of life (irreducible ignorance) of which the policy relevance needs be explored explicitly. The article recommends more openness for dissent and explicit reflection on ignorance in IPCC process and reporting.
Background: Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in kn... more Background: Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. Methods: We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discussed its implications for adaptation policy. A questionnaire-based expert elicitation was performed using an ordinal scoring scale. Experts were asked to indicate the level of precision with which health risks can be estimated, given the present state of knowledge. We assessed the individual scores, the expertise-weighted descriptive statistics, and the argumentation given for each score. Suggestions were made for how dealing with uncertainties could be taken into account in climate change adaptation policy strategies. Results: The results showed that the direction of change could be indicated for most anticipated health effects. For several potential effects, too little knowledge exists to indicate whether any impact will occur, or whether the impact will be positive or negative. For several effects, rough 'order-of-magnitude' estimates were considered possible. Factors limiting health impact quantification include: lack of data, multi-causality, unknown impacts considering a high-quality health system, complex cause-effect relations leading to multi-directional impacts, possible changes of present-day response-relations, and difficulties in predicting local climate impacts. Participants considered heat-related mortality and non-endemic vector-borne diseases particularly relevant for climate change adaptation.
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Papers by Jeroen P. van der Sluijs
identified areas for improvement in uncertainty management in IAMs and we propose a methodology, based on the work by Funtowicz and Ravetz, for disentangling the uncertainty problem in IAMs. This methodology will enable us to assess the quality of the model results and to identify the weakest links in
the models.
• Analysing, characterising, and dealing with uncertainty forms an integral
part of establishing and implementing climate adaptation policy.
• The classical elements used in uncertainty assessment (statistics, scenarios
and recognised ignorance) can be expanded toward fi ve principal uncertainty
dimensions that are crucial for informing/supporting adaptation
decision-making: location, level, nature, qualifi cation of knowledge base,
and value-ladenness.
• In practice, to deal with uncertainties, but also because of time and budget
constraints, uncertainty assessments may follow a three step approach:
(1) identify and characterise sources of uncertainty; (2) weigh, appraise,
and prioritise uncertainties; and (3) select and apply methods for dealing
with uncertainties in decision- making and policy.
• Based on political and societal preferences, adaptation strategies could
either use top-down or bottom-up approaches considering adaptation
actions based on the best prediction, robustness, or resilience.
process of combining, interpreting and communicating
knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines in
such a way that the whole cause–effect chain of a problem
can be evaluated from a synoptic perspective with two
characteristics: (i) it should have added value compared
to single disciplinary assessment; and (ii) it should provide
useful information to decision makers (Rotmans and
Dowlatabadi, 1997). Thus (IA) is an iterative participatory
process that links knowledge (science) and action (policy)
regarding complex global change issues such as acidification
and climate change.
Assessment comprises the analysis and review of information
derived from research, for the purpose of helping
someone in a position of responsibility to evaluate possible
actions or think about a problem. In this context, assessment
thus means assembling, summarizing, organizing, interpreting,
and possibly reconciling pieces of existing knowledge,
and communicating them so that they are relevant and helpful
to an intelligent but inexpert decision-maker (Parson,
1995).
Providing such a synoptic view required new analytical
tools and procedures to integrate a wide range of
disciplinary knowledge. As Parson (1995) phrased it: “to
make rational, informed social decisions on such complex,
long-term, uncertain issues as global climate change, the
capacity to integrate, reconcile, organize, and communicate
knowledge across domains – to do integrated assessment
– is essential.” IA has emerged as an approach that is
suitable for accommodating the uncertainties, complexities
and value diversities of issues such as climate change.
importance in environmental science for policy, though the nature of uncertainty is often
misunderstood. The interdisciplinary field of uncertainty analysis is unstable; there are
currently several incomplete notions of uncertainty leading to different and incompatible
uncertainty classifications. One of the most salient shortcomings of present-day practice is
that most of these classifications focus on quantifying uncertainty while ignoring the
qualitative aspects that tend to be decisive in the interface between science and policy.
Consequently, the current practices of uncertainty analysis contribute to increasing the
perceived precision of scientific knowledge, but do not adequately address its lack of sociopolitical
relevance. The ‘‘positivistic’’ uncertainty analysis models (like those that dominate
the fields of climate change modelling and nuclear or chemical risk assessment) have little
social relevance, as they do not influence negotiations between stakeholders. From the
perspective of the science-policy interface, the current practices of uncertainty analysis are
incomplete and incorrectly focused.
We argue that although scientific knowledge produced and used in a context of political
decision-making embodies traditional scientific characteristics, it also holds additional
properties linked to its influence on social, political, and economic relations. Therefore,
the significance of uncertainty cannot be assessed based on quality criteria that refer to the
scientific content only; uncertainty must also include quality criteria specific to the properties
and roles of this scientific knowledge within political, social, and economic contexts and
processes.
We propose a conceptual framework designed to account for such substantive, contextual,
and procedural criteria of knowledge quality. At the same time, the proposed framework
includes and synthesizes the various classes of uncertainty highlighted in the
literature.
2003. This was followed in 2007 by a ‘‘Stakeholder Participation’’ Guidance.
In this article, the authors provide a combined insider/outsider perspective on the transition process. The authors assess the extent to which the PNS paradigm has delivered new approaches in the agency’s practice and analyze two projects—on long-term options for Dutch sustainable development
policy and for urban development policy—the latter in somewhat more detail. The authors identify several paradoxes PBL encounters when putting the PNS concept into practice. It is concluded that an openness to other styles of work than the technocratic model has become visible, but that the introduction of the PNS paradigm is still in its early stage.
mitigation of climate change is and should remain the prime focus of climate policy, it is increasingly recognized that adaptation to climate change has become unavoidable. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has shown that even under optimistic assumptions for the success of present-day mitigation efforts and policies, human activity
is likely to lead to further climate change with possibly severe impacts (IPCC, 2007a).
The Stern review noted that adaptation is the only response available for the impacts that will occur over the next several decades before mitigation measures can have an effect (Stern, 2007).
literature, different lines are suggested to address the problem of provisional and uncertain evidence. Reflective approaches such as pedigree analysis can be used to explore the quality
of evidence when quantification of uncertainties is at stake. One of the issues where the quality of evidence impedes policy making, is the case of electromagnetic fields. In this case,
a (statistical) association was suggested with an increased risk on childhood leukaemia in the vicinity of overhead power lines. A biophysical mechanism that could support this
association was not found till date however. The Dutch government bases its policy concerning overhead power lines on the precautionary principle. For The Netherlands,
previous studies have assessed the potential number of extra cases of childhood leukaemia due to the presence over overhead power lines. However, such a quantification of the health risk of EMF entails a (large) number of assumptions, both prior to and in the calculation chain. In this study, these assumptions were prioritized and critically appraised in an expert elicitation workshop, using a pedigree matrix for characterization of assumptions in assessments. It appeared that assumptions that were regarded to be important in quantifying the health risks show a high value-ladenness. The results show that, given the present state of knowledge, quantification of the health risks of EMF is premature. We consider the current implementation of the precautionary principle by the Dutch government to be adequate.
identified areas for improvement in uncertainty management in IAMs and we propose a methodology, based on the work by Funtowicz and Ravetz, for disentangling the uncertainty problem in IAMs. This methodology will enable us to assess the quality of the model results and to identify the weakest links in
the models.
• Analysing, characterising, and dealing with uncertainty forms an integral
part of establishing and implementing climate adaptation policy.
• The classical elements used in uncertainty assessment (statistics, scenarios
and recognised ignorance) can be expanded toward fi ve principal uncertainty
dimensions that are crucial for informing/supporting adaptation
decision-making: location, level, nature, qualifi cation of knowledge base,
and value-ladenness.
• In practice, to deal with uncertainties, but also because of time and budget
constraints, uncertainty assessments may follow a three step approach:
(1) identify and characterise sources of uncertainty; (2) weigh, appraise,
and prioritise uncertainties; and (3) select and apply methods for dealing
with uncertainties in decision- making and policy.
• Based on political and societal preferences, adaptation strategies could
either use top-down or bottom-up approaches considering adaptation
actions based on the best prediction, robustness, or resilience.
process of combining, interpreting and communicating
knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines in
such a way that the whole cause–effect chain of a problem
can be evaluated from a synoptic perspective with two
characteristics: (i) it should have added value compared
to single disciplinary assessment; and (ii) it should provide
useful information to decision makers (Rotmans and
Dowlatabadi, 1997). Thus (IA) is an iterative participatory
process that links knowledge (science) and action (policy)
regarding complex global change issues such as acidification
and climate change.
Assessment comprises the analysis and review of information
derived from research, for the purpose of helping
someone in a position of responsibility to evaluate possible
actions or think about a problem. In this context, assessment
thus means assembling, summarizing, organizing, interpreting,
and possibly reconciling pieces of existing knowledge,
and communicating them so that they are relevant and helpful
to an intelligent but inexpert decision-maker (Parson,
1995).
Providing such a synoptic view required new analytical
tools and procedures to integrate a wide range of
disciplinary knowledge. As Parson (1995) phrased it: “to
make rational, informed social decisions on such complex,
long-term, uncertain issues as global climate change, the
capacity to integrate, reconcile, organize, and communicate
knowledge across domains – to do integrated assessment
– is essential.” IA has emerged as an approach that is
suitable for accommodating the uncertainties, complexities
and value diversities of issues such as climate change.
importance in environmental science for policy, though the nature of uncertainty is often
misunderstood. The interdisciplinary field of uncertainty analysis is unstable; there are
currently several incomplete notions of uncertainty leading to different and incompatible
uncertainty classifications. One of the most salient shortcomings of present-day practice is
that most of these classifications focus on quantifying uncertainty while ignoring the
qualitative aspects that tend to be decisive in the interface between science and policy.
Consequently, the current practices of uncertainty analysis contribute to increasing the
perceived precision of scientific knowledge, but do not adequately address its lack of sociopolitical
relevance. The ‘‘positivistic’’ uncertainty analysis models (like those that dominate
the fields of climate change modelling and nuclear or chemical risk assessment) have little
social relevance, as they do not influence negotiations between stakeholders. From the
perspective of the science-policy interface, the current practices of uncertainty analysis are
incomplete and incorrectly focused.
We argue that although scientific knowledge produced and used in a context of political
decision-making embodies traditional scientific characteristics, it also holds additional
properties linked to its influence on social, political, and economic relations. Therefore,
the significance of uncertainty cannot be assessed based on quality criteria that refer to the
scientific content only; uncertainty must also include quality criteria specific to the properties
and roles of this scientific knowledge within political, social, and economic contexts and
processes.
We propose a conceptual framework designed to account for such substantive, contextual,
and procedural criteria of knowledge quality. At the same time, the proposed framework
includes and synthesizes the various classes of uncertainty highlighted in the
literature.
2003. This was followed in 2007 by a ‘‘Stakeholder Participation’’ Guidance.
In this article, the authors provide a combined insider/outsider perspective on the transition process. The authors assess the extent to which the PNS paradigm has delivered new approaches in the agency’s practice and analyze two projects—on long-term options for Dutch sustainable development
policy and for urban development policy—the latter in somewhat more detail. The authors identify several paradoxes PBL encounters when putting the PNS concept into practice. It is concluded that an openness to other styles of work than the technocratic model has become visible, but that the introduction of the PNS paradigm is still in its early stage.
mitigation of climate change is and should remain the prime focus of climate policy, it is increasingly recognized that adaptation to climate change has become unavoidable. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has shown that even under optimistic assumptions for the success of present-day mitigation efforts and policies, human activity
is likely to lead to further climate change with possibly severe impacts (IPCC, 2007a).
The Stern review noted that adaptation is the only response available for the impacts that will occur over the next several decades before mitigation measures can have an effect (Stern, 2007).
literature, different lines are suggested to address the problem of provisional and uncertain evidence. Reflective approaches such as pedigree analysis can be used to explore the quality
of evidence when quantification of uncertainties is at stake. One of the issues where the quality of evidence impedes policy making, is the case of electromagnetic fields. In this case,
a (statistical) association was suggested with an increased risk on childhood leukaemia in the vicinity of overhead power lines. A biophysical mechanism that could support this
association was not found till date however. The Dutch government bases its policy concerning overhead power lines on the precautionary principle. For The Netherlands,
previous studies have assessed the potential number of extra cases of childhood leukaemia due to the presence over overhead power lines. However, such a quantification of the health risk of EMF entails a (large) number of assumptions, both prior to and in the calculation chain. In this study, these assumptions were prioritized and critically appraised in an expert elicitation workshop, using a pedigree matrix for characterization of assumptions in assessments. It appeared that assumptions that were regarded to be important in quantifying the health risks show a high value-ladenness. The results show that, given the present state of knowledge, quantification of the health risks of EMF is premature. We consider the current implementation of the precautionary principle by the Dutch government to be adequate.