This paper uses artificial intelligence to identify a Russian disinformation narrative and track ... more This paper uses artificial intelligence to identify a Russian disinformation narrative and track it to its original sources online. This project, using online content that is collected and categorized by the VAST (Veracity Authentication Systems Technology) OSINT system, identifies and analyzes content associated with Russian propaganda with strategic narrative insights. We use the example of accusations of Nazism in Ukraine, specifically related to the Ukrainian Azov regiment, to demonstrate how different stories within this propaganda narrative appear on far-right U.S. websites. At the same time, our study shows little engagement with these stories in the mainstream U.S. media. This paper demonstrates how to scale human content analysis by using artificial intelligence to analyze how foreign propaganda penetrates the U.S. media ecosystem. Using this technology, we can identify disinformation ‘supply chains’ and hopefully disrupt this supply more effectively than we have in the past.
Terrorist acts have created more awareness of terrorism and fear of terrorist violence in countri... more Terrorist acts have created more awareness of terrorism and fear of terrorist violence in countries around the world. This paper examines the role of terrorist threat in election campaigns in Russia in the 2003-2004 election cycle as well as in the 2004 Bush-Kerry race in the United States. The study discusses messages about terrorist threat disseminated by candidates and political parties; coverage on nightly television news during the campaigns; and focus-group findings about the reaction to the framing of terrorism in elections. What emerges is that fear tends to drive support for “strong” leaders. While this is unsurprising in the face of emerging authoritarianism in Russia, it is a more intriguing finding in the case of the United States. This study considers how the climate of fear may have influenced the tenor of political messages as well as vote choice in two very different regimes. It discusses differences in how major television channels presented messages about terrorism...
This paper combines human coding and artificial intelligence to compare Russian propaganda narrat... more This paper combines human coding and artificial intelligence to compare Russian propaganda narratives with discussion of Democratic Presidential candidate Joe Biden in social and mainstream media in the United States in summer 2020. The research found the presence of the same narratives across Russian English-language outlets, Fox News, rightwing websites, and leftwing Twitter. The research found a particularly strong convergence between the use of Biden attack narratives on Russian English-language sites such as RT and Sputnik with Fox News coverage. Across all these outlets, there was much discussion that Biden was corrupt, too old, a sexual deviant, and a placeholder for leftist conspiracy. All the sources aside from rightwing Twitter highlighted that Biden was also the frontrunner in the presidential race. The analysis was carried out by the MarvelousAI StoryArc system, which measures news narratives by combining human coding, natural language processing, and machine learning
This chapter examines public attitudes to the British 2005 general election campaign through a se... more This chapter examines public attitudes to the British 2005 general election campaign through a series of focus groups. The groups explored a range of issues, from reactions to campaign advertising, to perceptions of party political platforms to public responses regarding messages about terrorism and threats to national security. Did the British public appear to accept or reject the messages about terrorism emanating from politicians and the media? What were the factors underlying such decisions? What do the public know about the motives behind Islamic terrorism? Do the public think it is legitimate for the media to discuss such motives or do they think that the media should follow former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s dictum, strongly supported by some security experts, that such groups be denied “the oxygen of publicity”? What does the public think of official policies, such as detention without trial, which has been argued are necessary to protect the public from terrorist threat?
Terrorism played a very minor role in the election campaign for the British Parliament in 2005. H... more Terrorism played a very minor role in the election campaign for the British Parliament in 2005. However, the conduct of the campaign does raise important questions about the relationship between parties, the media, the electorate, and fear appeals. The research presented in this chapter has two elements. The first involves an analysis of messages projected by politicians through Party Election Broadcasts, whilst the second consists of a content analysis of television news for the month-long election campaign. While there was little overt mention of terrorism in the election campaign, which ended two months before the July 2005 attacks on the London transport system, fear appeals were present in how the Conservative Party framed issues relating to immigration and asylum. However, no single frame such as the War on Terror dominated the British media, with both the broad-cast and print media being the site of competing accounts relating to the severity of the threat from terrorism.
The threat of terrorism permeated the 2004 U.S. election. The events of 9/11 were, of course, sti... more The threat of terrorism permeated the 2004 U.S. election. The events of 9/11 were, of course, still salient in the minds of U.S. citizens, and polls showed terrorism as a top issue for voters in the 2004 presidential election (National Annenberg Election Survey, 2004; Pew, 2004). Both major political parties and their candidates were aware of the importance of the issue. There were, however, major differences in the messages related to terrorism that were communicated by the Republican and Democratic candidates, by partisan and interest groups supporting and opposing them, as well as by the media coverage of the campaign. Research for this chapter, which includes an analysis of 351 political spots, suggests that while terrorism was an unusual issue for a U.S. presidential campaign, it dominated the messages communicated by both candidates in the 2004 campaign. Critically for the Republicans, the George W. Bush campaign appeared more effective at framing and presenting a message about terrorism that was designed to resonate effectively with U.S. voters in the political atmosphere of the first presidential elections after 9/11.
As the title of this book suggests, Catie Snow Bailard is encouraging us to think about the effec... more As the title of this book suggests, Catie Snow Bailard is encouraging us to think about the effect of the Internet on democratization in more nuanced and interesting ways. In this concise and well-written volume, Bailard sets out a useful and intriguing way of thinking about the paradox of Internet use and how citizens evaluate the performance of their own governments. This “double-edged sword” is that while citizens can certainly learn more about their own governments via the Internet, this knowledge may not cause them to become active supporters of their governments: “One democratic gain (such as greater transparency of a sub-par democratic process) does not necessarily or always produce other prodemocratic changes in behavior” (p. 118). Indeed, this deeper and broader knowledge about domestic politics or international norms may not cause them to push for change. Rather, they may become so dissatisfied with the state of affairs in their own countries that they either disengage or—worse yet—lose faith in democracy altogether as a form of governance. Bailard uses two interesting conceptualizations as key ideas for her discussion of Internet use and democracy support: mirror-holding and window-opening. These evocative terms highlight two key elements of the online sphere that allow us to examine what happens in our own society as well as learn about what is going on in other countries. In this way, Bailard writes, the Internet becomes an important democratizing tool even in the many authoritarian or semi-authoritarian regimes around the world. For example, she points out that in China, which has significant control of its online sphere, online information led to very different public knowledge about earthquakes in the pre-Internet era in 1976 and in 2008. In the latter case, the Chinese public was able to engage in “mirror-holding” by examining problems with the state of emergency preparedness and response in the later tragedy. In addition, the Chinese population engaged in “window-opening” by being able to compare Chinese earthquake preparedness and response to the Japanese experience in 2011. With mirror-holding and window-opening, Bailard highlights how the Internet provides more in-depth information about politics within a country as well as gives citizens a much broader perspective on world politics in general. This includes the ability to access and understand a wider range of information about how democracy functions (or not) in other countries, which is particularly important as only a small minority of the world’s population lives in a society with a free press (according to Freedom House; see its 2015 Freedom of the Press Data at https://freedomhouse.org/report-types/freedom-press#. VZL68RNVhHw). Bailard takes us a conceptual step further in theorizing that this information can lead to different effects. While some of this (as many have theorized) could lead to greater understanding and engagement with democracy, some knowledge could alienate people from voting or even from the system itself. This could be especially
Abstract As international entities and information disseminators, internet service providers (ISP... more Abstract As international entities and information disseminators, internet service providers (ISPs) often find themselves caught up in debates about their rights to do business within the boundaries of foreign nation-states. This article argues that if ISPs in the business of ...
In the winter of 2011-12, Russian citizens participated in their first large street demonstration... more In the winter of 2011-12, Russian citizens participated in their first large street demonstrations since the early 1990s. This paper looks at a specific element of the internet’s role in these protests by examining different news frames in state-run television news, commercial news, and online content for the protests on December 10, December 24, and February 4. The research finds that state-run news admitted only that people were dissatisfied with the political process, while commercial news and the internet were far more critical of political leaders and the regime. Overall, a ‘war of frames’ emerged, with all of the news sources attempting to either dismiss or support the idea that the protests had significant grass-roots support and represented a legitimate threat to the Putin regime. Online news sources provided not only a broader range of voices and ideas, but also gave important details about the protest events themselves. What emerges from this study is that state-run news will struggle to contain future protests using the same post-Soviet propaganda methods, suggesting that the Russian state will either have to find a more effective way to control information challenges or experience change on the scale of the Arab Spring. This research was funded by a grant from the Economic and Social Research Council (The Internet and Everyday Rights in Russia, RES-000-22-4159).
As terrorist attacks have become more immediate threats for large nations, what role do fear and ... more As terrorist attacks have become more immediate threats for large nations, what role do fear and concern over terrorism play in campaign strategy, media coverage and vote choice during elections? Although terrorist groups and the mass media have had an uneasy ...
The evidence of a nationally representative survey conducted in April 2001 suggests that televisi... more The evidence of a nationally representative survey conducted in April 2001 suggests that television is the medium of choice for most Russians. At least 92 per cent watch at least several times a week, with state channels more popular than those in commercial ownership. The media enjoy a high level of trust, and there is widespread agreement that they should adopt a stabilising role in society rather than simply report developments. Television is the main source of information when Russians make their electoral choices; there are accordingly considerable implications in the extent to which pro-Kremlin candidates and parties enjoy the support of the state media, which in turn are the favourite viewing of the voters that support them.
This paper uses artificial intelligence to identify a Russian disinformation narrative and track ... more This paper uses artificial intelligence to identify a Russian disinformation narrative and track it to its original sources online. This project, using online content that is collected and categorized by the VAST (Veracity Authentication Systems Technology) OSINT system, identifies and analyzes content associated with Russian propaganda with strategic narrative insights. We use the example of accusations of Nazism in Ukraine, specifically related to the Ukrainian Azov regiment, to demonstrate how different stories within this propaganda narrative appear on far-right U.S. websites. At the same time, our study shows little engagement with these stories in the mainstream U.S. media. This paper demonstrates how to scale human content analysis by using artificial intelligence to analyze how foreign propaganda penetrates the U.S. media ecosystem. Using this technology, we can identify disinformation ‘supply chains’ and hopefully disrupt this supply more effectively than we have in the past.
Terrorist acts have created more awareness of terrorism and fear of terrorist violence in countri... more Terrorist acts have created more awareness of terrorism and fear of terrorist violence in countries around the world. This paper examines the role of terrorist threat in election campaigns in Russia in the 2003-2004 election cycle as well as in the 2004 Bush-Kerry race in the United States. The study discusses messages about terrorist threat disseminated by candidates and political parties; coverage on nightly television news during the campaigns; and focus-group findings about the reaction to the framing of terrorism in elections. What emerges is that fear tends to drive support for “strong” leaders. While this is unsurprising in the face of emerging authoritarianism in Russia, it is a more intriguing finding in the case of the United States. This study considers how the climate of fear may have influenced the tenor of political messages as well as vote choice in two very different regimes. It discusses differences in how major television channels presented messages about terrorism...
This paper combines human coding and artificial intelligence to compare Russian propaganda narrat... more This paper combines human coding and artificial intelligence to compare Russian propaganda narratives with discussion of Democratic Presidential candidate Joe Biden in social and mainstream media in the United States in summer 2020. The research found the presence of the same narratives across Russian English-language outlets, Fox News, rightwing websites, and leftwing Twitter. The research found a particularly strong convergence between the use of Biden attack narratives on Russian English-language sites such as RT and Sputnik with Fox News coverage. Across all these outlets, there was much discussion that Biden was corrupt, too old, a sexual deviant, and a placeholder for leftist conspiracy. All the sources aside from rightwing Twitter highlighted that Biden was also the frontrunner in the presidential race. The analysis was carried out by the MarvelousAI StoryArc system, which measures news narratives by combining human coding, natural language processing, and machine learning
This chapter examines public attitudes to the British 2005 general election campaign through a se... more This chapter examines public attitudes to the British 2005 general election campaign through a series of focus groups. The groups explored a range of issues, from reactions to campaign advertising, to perceptions of party political platforms to public responses regarding messages about terrorism and threats to national security. Did the British public appear to accept or reject the messages about terrorism emanating from politicians and the media? What were the factors underlying such decisions? What do the public know about the motives behind Islamic terrorism? Do the public think it is legitimate for the media to discuss such motives or do they think that the media should follow former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s dictum, strongly supported by some security experts, that such groups be denied “the oxygen of publicity”? What does the public think of official policies, such as detention without trial, which has been argued are necessary to protect the public from terrorist threat?
Terrorism played a very minor role in the election campaign for the British Parliament in 2005. H... more Terrorism played a very minor role in the election campaign for the British Parliament in 2005. However, the conduct of the campaign does raise important questions about the relationship between parties, the media, the electorate, and fear appeals. The research presented in this chapter has two elements. The first involves an analysis of messages projected by politicians through Party Election Broadcasts, whilst the second consists of a content analysis of television news for the month-long election campaign. While there was little overt mention of terrorism in the election campaign, which ended two months before the July 2005 attacks on the London transport system, fear appeals were present in how the Conservative Party framed issues relating to immigration and asylum. However, no single frame such as the War on Terror dominated the British media, with both the broad-cast and print media being the site of competing accounts relating to the severity of the threat from terrorism.
The threat of terrorism permeated the 2004 U.S. election. The events of 9/11 were, of course, sti... more The threat of terrorism permeated the 2004 U.S. election. The events of 9/11 were, of course, still salient in the minds of U.S. citizens, and polls showed terrorism as a top issue for voters in the 2004 presidential election (National Annenberg Election Survey, 2004; Pew, 2004). Both major political parties and their candidates were aware of the importance of the issue. There were, however, major differences in the messages related to terrorism that were communicated by the Republican and Democratic candidates, by partisan and interest groups supporting and opposing them, as well as by the media coverage of the campaign. Research for this chapter, which includes an analysis of 351 political spots, suggests that while terrorism was an unusual issue for a U.S. presidential campaign, it dominated the messages communicated by both candidates in the 2004 campaign. Critically for the Republicans, the George W. Bush campaign appeared more effective at framing and presenting a message about terrorism that was designed to resonate effectively with U.S. voters in the political atmosphere of the first presidential elections after 9/11.
As the title of this book suggests, Catie Snow Bailard is encouraging us to think about the effec... more As the title of this book suggests, Catie Snow Bailard is encouraging us to think about the effect of the Internet on democratization in more nuanced and interesting ways. In this concise and well-written volume, Bailard sets out a useful and intriguing way of thinking about the paradox of Internet use and how citizens evaluate the performance of their own governments. This “double-edged sword” is that while citizens can certainly learn more about their own governments via the Internet, this knowledge may not cause them to become active supporters of their governments: “One democratic gain (such as greater transparency of a sub-par democratic process) does not necessarily or always produce other prodemocratic changes in behavior” (p. 118). Indeed, this deeper and broader knowledge about domestic politics or international norms may not cause them to push for change. Rather, they may become so dissatisfied with the state of affairs in their own countries that they either disengage or—worse yet—lose faith in democracy altogether as a form of governance. Bailard uses two interesting conceptualizations as key ideas for her discussion of Internet use and democracy support: mirror-holding and window-opening. These evocative terms highlight two key elements of the online sphere that allow us to examine what happens in our own society as well as learn about what is going on in other countries. In this way, Bailard writes, the Internet becomes an important democratizing tool even in the many authoritarian or semi-authoritarian regimes around the world. For example, she points out that in China, which has significant control of its online sphere, online information led to very different public knowledge about earthquakes in the pre-Internet era in 1976 and in 2008. In the latter case, the Chinese public was able to engage in “mirror-holding” by examining problems with the state of emergency preparedness and response in the later tragedy. In addition, the Chinese population engaged in “window-opening” by being able to compare Chinese earthquake preparedness and response to the Japanese experience in 2011. With mirror-holding and window-opening, Bailard highlights how the Internet provides more in-depth information about politics within a country as well as gives citizens a much broader perspective on world politics in general. This includes the ability to access and understand a wider range of information about how democracy functions (or not) in other countries, which is particularly important as only a small minority of the world’s population lives in a society with a free press (according to Freedom House; see its 2015 Freedom of the Press Data at https://freedomhouse.org/report-types/freedom-press#. VZL68RNVhHw). Bailard takes us a conceptual step further in theorizing that this information can lead to different effects. While some of this (as many have theorized) could lead to greater understanding and engagement with democracy, some knowledge could alienate people from voting or even from the system itself. This could be especially
Abstract As international entities and information disseminators, internet service providers (ISP... more Abstract As international entities and information disseminators, internet service providers (ISPs) often find themselves caught up in debates about their rights to do business within the boundaries of foreign nation-states. This article argues that if ISPs in the business of ...
In the winter of 2011-12, Russian citizens participated in their first large street demonstration... more In the winter of 2011-12, Russian citizens participated in their first large street demonstrations since the early 1990s. This paper looks at a specific element of the internet’s role in these protests by examining different news frames in state-run television news, commercial news, and online content for the protests on December 10, December 24, and February 4. The research finds that state-run news admitted only that people were dissatisfied with the political process, while commercial news and the internet were far more critical of political leaders and the regime. Overall, a ‘war of frames’ emerged, with all of the news sources attempting to either dismiss or support the idea that the protests had significant grass-roots support and represented a legitimate threat to the Putin regime. Online news sources provided not only a broader range of voices and ideas, but also gave important details about the protest events themselves. What emerges from this study is that state-run news will struggle to contain future protests using the same post-Soviet propaganda methods, suggesting that the Russian state will either have to find a more effective way to control information challenges or experience change on the scale of the Arab Spring. This research was funded by a grant from the Economic and Social Research Council (The Internet and Everyday Rights in Russia, RES-000-22-4159).
As terrorist attacks have become more immediate threats for large nations, what role do fear and ... more As terrorist attacks have become more immediate threats for large nations, what role do fear and concern over terrorism play in campaign strategy, media coverage and vote choice during elections? Although terrorist groups and the mass media have had an uneasy ...
The evidence of a nationally representative survey conducted in April 2001 suggests that televisi... more The evidence of a nationally representative survey conducted in April 2001 suggests that television is the medium of choice for most Russians. At least 92 per cent watch at least several times a week, with state channels more popular than those in commercial ownership. The media enjoy a high level of trust, and there is widespread agreement that they should adopt a stabilising role in society rather than simply report developments. Television is the main source of information when Russians make their electoral choices; there are accordingly considerable implications in the extent to which pro-Kremlin candidates and parties enjoy the support of the state media, which in turn are the favourite viewing of the voters that support them.
Perhaps the most notable aspect of the second presidential debate of the 2016 election season is ... more Perhaps the most notable aspect of the second presidential debate of the 2016 election season is how the candidates used-and misused-personal space during the event. Drawing from research on historical women's debating societies, this presentation will make sense of the 2016 debate by placing it within a larger conversation about the relationship between gender, space, and power. Using the corpus of 2015-2016 primary and presidential debates and the classical rhetorical idea of "topics," I ask what computational methods and a classical rhetorical theory of argumentation can help us to see about our current political discourse. This talk also introduces how to construct and parse a corpus in various ways to answer various kinds of questions. "Donald Trump's rhetorical style has been criticized as repetitive, vague and lacking coherence. I argue that it is precisely these features, typical of interpersonal interaction, that helped him engage otherwise disaffected Republican primary voters."
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