Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) are expected to yield significant improvements in safety,... more Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) are expected to yield significant improvements in safety, energy efficiency, and time utilization. However, their net effect on energy and environmental outcomes is unclear. Higher fuel economy reduces the energy required per mile of travel, but it also reduces the fuel cost of travel, incentivizing more travel and causing an energy “rebound effect.” Moreover, CAVs are predicted to vastly reduce the time cost of travel, inducing further increases in travel and energy use. In this paper, we forecast the induced travel and rebound from CAVs using data on existing travel behavior. We develop a microeconomic model of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) choice under income and time constraints; then we use it to estimate elasticities of VMT demand with respect to fuel and time costs, with fuel cost data from the 2017 United States National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and wage-derived predictions of travel time cost. Our central estimate of the combined price elasticity of VMT demand is −0.4, which differs substantially from previous estimates. We also find evidence that wealthier households have more elastic demand, and that households at all income levels are more sensitive to time costs than to fuel costs. We use our estimated elasticities to simulate VMT and energy use impacts of full, private CAV adoption under a range of possible changes to the fuel and time costs of travel. We forecast a 2–47% increase in travel demand for an average household. Our results indicate that backfire – i.e., a net rise in energy use – is a possibility, especially in higher income groups. This presents a stiff challenge to policy goals for reductions in not only energy use but also traffic congestion and local and global air pollution, as CAV use increases.
In many developing countries, environmental quality remains low and policies to improve it have b... more In many developing countries, environmental quality remains low and policies to improve it have been inconsistently effective. We conduct a case study of environmental policy in India, focusing on unprecedented Supreme Court rulings that targeted industrial pollution in the Ganga River. In a difference-indifferences framework, we find that the rulings precipitated reductions in river pollution and one-month infant mortality, both of which persist for more than a decade. We then estimate a pollution-mortality dose-response function across twenty-nine rivers in the Ganga Basin, instrumenting for pollution with its upstream counterpart. The estimation reveals a significant external health burden of river pollution, not just in the district of measurement, but also on downstream communities. It further provides suggestive evidence that reducing pollution was an important driver behind declines in infant mortality observed after the rulings.
The noncovalent immobilization of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) onto aqueous dispersed nylon 6 nanor... more The noncovalent immobilization of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) onto aqueous dispersed nylon 6 nanorods ( approximately 310 nm mean diameter; approximately 6 microm mean length) prepared by anodic aluminum oxide (AAO) membrane templating was studied. Using multi-stacked layer-by-layer (LBL) assembly with the cationic quaternary ammonium polymer Sapphire II , the amount of ALP enzyme loaded onto the polymer nanostructures was found to be 115+/-7 microg mg(-1) nanorod. The biofunctionalized nanorods were also characterized for their chemiluminescent activity with the dioxetane substrate, CSPD . The results indicate that the kinetic parameters, K(m) and V(max), for the catalytic activity of the nanostructure-bound ALP enzyme are different from those of soluble ('free') ALP. While the K(m) value was measured to be 156 microM for free ALP, the apparent K(m) value determined for the LBL-immobilized ALP is approximately 20% lower (122 microM). Furthermore, despite the relatively high enzyme loading capacity of the nanorods, the specific activity of the bound ALP enzyme was found to be almost nine times lower than that measured for free ALP. Finally, additional experiments revealed that the catalytic activities of both free ALP and nanorod-conjugated ALP are affected similarly by changes in pH, with optimal performance levels occurring under conditions of pH 9.5. To the best of our knowledge, this study represents the first report examining the preparation of aqueous dispersed, AAO-templated polymer nanorods for potential application as enzyme scaffolds in chemiluminescent-based assay systems.
Existing estimates of energy tax incidence assume that the pass-through
of taxes to final consume... more Existing estimates of energy tax incidence assume that the pass-through of taxes to final consumer prices is uniform across the affected population. I show that, in fact, variation in local market conditions drives significant heterogeneity in pass-through, and ignoring this can lead to mistaken conclusions about the distributional impacts of energy taxes. I use data from the Spanish retail automotive fuel market to estimate station-specific pass-through, focusing on the effects of competition and wealth. A novel informational mandate provides access to a national, station-daily panel of retail diesel prices and characteristics and allows me to investigate market composition at a fine level. Event study and difference-in-differences regression reveal that, while retail prices rise nearly one-for-one (100%) with taxes on average, station-specific pass-through rates range from at least 70% to 120%. Greater market power -- measured by brand concentration and spatial isolation -- is strongly associated with higher pass-through, even after conditioning on detailed demand-side characteristics. Furthermore, pass-through rises monotonically in area-average house prices. While a conventional estimate of the Spanish diesel tax burden suggests roughly equivalent incidence across the wealth distribution, overlaying the effect of heterogeneous pass-through reveals the tax to be unambiguously progressive.
I estimate the pass-through of automotive fuel tax changes to final consumer prices, while accoun... more I estimate the pass-through of automotive fuel tax changes to final consumer prices, while accounting for how much of a retail market is covered by a tax change. In Spain, retail taxes on automotive fuel have a state-specific component. At state borders, then where local competition straddles multiple states a tax hike in one state only affects the marginal costs of some stations in a market. I show that incidence changes significantly when a cost shock is not uniform throughout a market: while average tax pass-through is nearly 100% (i.e., one-for-one) away from state borders, it is reduced to 57% within 5 km of a cross-border rival. At the same time, unaffected cross-border rivals actually raise retail prices, which causes some of the state tax's burden to fall on other, neighboring states. The magnitudes of responses on both sides of a border rise in the number and proximity of cross-border rivals. The results show a clear incentive for firms to raise their rivals' costs. More generally, accounting for firm-specific costs in pass-through estimation can inform both forecasting of (e.g., carbon) tax incidence and analysis of potential mergers.
Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) are expected to yield significant improvements in safety,... more Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) are expected to yield significant improvements in safety, energy efficiency, and time utilization. However, their net effect on energy and environmental outcomes is unclear. Higher fuel economy reduces the energy required per mile of travel, but it also reduces the fuel cost of travel, incentivizing more travel and causing an energy “rebound effect.” Moreover, CAVs are predicted to vastly reduce the time cost of travel, inducing further increases in travel and energy use. In this paper, we forecast the induced travel and rebound from CAVs using data on existing travel behavior. We develop a microeconomic model of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) choice under income and time constraints; then we use it to estimate elasticities of VMT demand with respect to fuel and time costs, with fuel cost data from the 2017 United States National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and wage-derived predictions of travel time cost. Our central estimate of the combined price elasticity of VMT demand is −0.4, which differs substantially from previous estimates. We also find evidence that wealthier households have more elastic demand, and that households at all income levels are more sensitive to time costs than to fuel costs. We use our estimated elasticities to simulate VMT and energy use impacts of full, private CAV adoption under a range of possible changes to the fuel and time costs of travel. We forecast a 2–47% increase in travel demand for an average household. Our results indicate that backfire – i.e., a net rise in energy use – is a possibility, especially in higher income groups. This presents a stiff challenge to policy goals for reductions in not only energy use but also traffic congestion and local and global air pollution, as CAV use increases.
In many developing countries, environmental quality remains low and policies to improve it have b... more In many developing countries, environmental quality remains low and policies to improve it have been inconsistently effective. We conduct a case study of environmental policy in India, focusing on unprecedented Supreme Court rulings that targeted industrial pollution in the Ganga River. In a difference-indifferences framework, we find that the rulings precipitated reductions in river pollution and one-month infant mortality, both of which persist for more than a decade. We then estimate a pollution-mortality dose-response function across twenty-nine rivers in the Ganga Basin, instrumenting for pollution with its upstream counterpart. The estimation reveals a significant external health burden of river pollution, not just in the district of measurement, but also on downstream communities. It further provides suggestive evidence that reducing pollution was an important driver behind declines in infant mortality observed after the rulings.
The noncovalent immobilization of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) onto aqueous dispersed nylon 6 nanor... more The noncovalent immobilization of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) onto aqueous dispersed nylon 6 nanorods ( approximately 310 nm mean diameter; approximately 6 microm mean length) prepared by anodic aluminum oxide (AAO) membrane templating was studied. Using multi-stacked layer-by-layer (LBL) assembly with the cationic quaternary ammonium polymer Sapphire II , the amount of ALP enzyme loaded onto the polymer nanostructures was found to be 115+/-7 microg mg(-1) nanorod. The biofunctionalized nanorods were also characterized for their chemiluminescent activity with the dioxetane substrate, CSPD . The results indicate that the kinetic parameters, K(m) and V(max), for the catalytic activity of the nanostructure-bound ALP enzyme are different from those of soluble ('free') ALP. While the K(m) value was measured to be 156 microM for free ALP, the apparent K(m) value determined for the LBL-immobilized ALP is approximately 20% lower (122 microM). Furthermore, despite the relatively high enzyme loading capacity of the nanorods, the specific activity of the bound ALP enzyme was found to be almost nine times lower than that measured for free ALP. Finally, additional experiments revealed that the catalytic activities of both free ALP and nanorod-conjugated ALP are affected similarly by changes in pH, with optimal performance levels occurring under conditions of pH 9.5. To the best of our knowledge, this study represents the first report examining the preparation of aqueous dispersed, AAO-templated polymer nanorods for potential application as enzyme scaffolds in chemiluminescent-based assay systems.
Existing estimates of energy tax incidence assume that the pass-through
of taxes to final consume... more Existing estimates of energy tax incidence assume that the pass-through of taxes to final consumer prices is uniform across the affected population. I show that, in fact, variation in local market conditions drives significant heterogeneity in pass-through, and ignoring this can lead to mistaken conclusions about the distributional impacts of energy taxes. I use data from the Spanish retail automotive fuel market to estimate station-specific pass-through, focusing on the effects of competition and wealth. A novel informational mandate provides access to a national, station-daily panel of retail diesel prices and characteristics and allows me to investigate market composition at a fine level. Event study and difference-in-differences regression reveal that, while retail prices rise nearly one-for-one (100%) with taxes on average, station-specific pass-through rates range from at least 70% to 120%. Greater market power -- measured by brand concentration and spatial isolation -- is strongly associated with higher pass-through, even after conditioning on detailed demand-side characteristics. Furthermore, pass-through rises monotonically in area-average house prices. While a conventional estimate of the Spanish diesel tax burden suggests roughly equivalent incidence across the wealth distribution, overlaying the effect of heterogeneous pass-through reveals the tax to be unambiguously progressive.
I estimate the pass-through of automotive fuel tax changes to final consumer prices, while accoun... more I estimate the pass-through of automotive fuel tax changes to final consumer prices, while accounting for how much of a retail market is covered by a tax change. In Spain, retail taxes on automotive fuel have a state-specific component. At state borders, then where local competition straddles multiple states a tax hike in one state only affects the marginal costs of some stations in a market. I show that incidence changes significantly when a cost shock is not uniform throughout a market: while average tax pass-through is nearly 100% (i.e., one-for-one) away from state borders, it is reduced to 57% within 5 km of a cross-border rival. At the same time, unaffected cross-border rivals actually raise retail prices, which causes some of the state tax's burden to fall on other, neighboring states. The magnitudes of responses on both sides of a border rise in the number and proximity of cross-border rivals. The results show a clear incentive for firms to raise their rivals' costs. More generally, accounting for firm-specific costs in pass-through estimation can inform both forecasting of (e.g., carbon) tax incidence and analysis of potential mergers.
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Papers by Samuel Stolper
Drafts by Samuel Stolper
of taxes to final consumer prices is uniform across the affected population. I show that, in fact, variation in local market conditions drives significant heterogeneity in pass-through, and ignoring this can lead to mistaken conclusions about the distributional impacts of energy
taxes. I use data from the Spanish retail automotive fuel market to
estimate station-specific pass-through, focusing on the effects of
competition and wealth. A novel informational mandate provides access
to a national, station-daily panel of retail diesel prices and characteristics and allows me to investigate market composition at a fine level. Event study and difference-in-differences regression reveal that, while retail prices rise nearly one-for-one (100%) with taxes on average, station-specific pass-through rates range from at least 70% to 120%. Greater market power -- measured by brand concentration and spatial isolation -- is strongly associated with higher pass-through, even after conditioning on detailed demand-side characteristics. Furthermore, pass-through rises monotonically in area-average house prices. While a conventional estimate of the Spanish diesel tax burden suggests roughly equivalent incidence across the wealth distribution, overlaying the effect of heterogeneous pass-through reveals the tax to be unambiguously progressive.
Reviews by Samuel Stolper
of taxes to final consumer prices is uniform across the affected population. I show that, in fact, variation in local market conditions drives significant heterogeneity in pass-through, and ignoring this can lead to mistaken conclusions about the distributional impacts of energy
taxes. I use data from the Spanish retail automotive fuel market to
estimate station-specific pass-through, focusing on the effects of
competition and wealth. A novel informational mandate provides access
to a national, station-daily panel of retail diesel prices and characteristics and allows me to investigate market composition at a fine level. Event study and difference-in-differences regression reveal that, while retail prices rise nearly one-for-one (100%) with taxes on average, station-specific pass-through rates range from at least 70% to 120%. Greater market power -- measured by brand concentration and spatial isolation -- is strongly associated with higher pass-through, even after conditioning on detailed demand-side characteristics. Furthermore, pass-through rises monotonically in area-average house prices. While a conventional estimate of the Spanish diesel tax burden suggests roughly equivalent incidence across the wealth distribution, overlaying the effect of heterogeneous pass-through reveals the tax to be unambiguously progressive.