This research study aims to explore the inflationary effects of oil price rises in the case of Az... more This research study aims to explore the inflationary effects of oil price rises in the case of Azerbaijan. The study covers 1997–2021 yearly data to estimate long- and short-term impacts while considering “oil price—money supply” interactions. Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds testing (ARDLBT), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), and Canonical Cointegration Regression (CCR) cointegration methods are applied simultaneously. The research findings are: (1) oil price is a significant long-term determinant of inflation in Azerbaijan, affecting overall prices directly and indirectly via the money supply; (2) the effect is statistically significant in the short-term and happens indirectly, moderated by the money supply; and (3) oil price moderates the impact of the money supply over inflation in the short-term. A major limitation of the current study is that it omits the possible moderation impact of oil prices over inflation in Azerbaijan through the resulting inflationary ...
Intention to emigrate has been one of the most challenging issues globally over the last decade f... more Intention to emigrate has been one of the most challenging issues globally over the last decade for both migrant-sending and receiving countries. Rising emigration intentions trigger migration attempts and brain drain, while migrant-receiving countries are challenged by illegal emigration. Self-perceived trust in government is one of the fundamental determinants of citizens' emigration aspirations. This research applies path analyses to explore direct and indirect effects of trust in government on emigrating intentions in a post-soviet country – Azerbaijan. Using a pool of two social survey data (N=4092,n_Male=2106,n_Female=1986,〖Mean〗_Age=31.82) within a serial mediation analysis framework, we conclude that the trust in government has a significant direct (65-70%) and indirect (30-35%) negative impact on emigration aspirations among the people of Azerbaijan. The relationship is mediated by self-reported life satisfaction. Perceived income adequacy also mediates the relationship...
The research presents an elaborated mapping of common social problems in Azerbaijan across countr... more The research presents an elaborated mapping of common social problems in Azerbaijan across country’s regions. Using a survey dataset of 2161 respondents representing various socio-demographic categories of the population, the study borrows a two-stage approach to identify the “common” social problems in the country. Primary research findings are (1) the "top 5" list includes inflation, unemployment, corruption, state of education and health, and poverty, (2) a correlation exists between macro-economic trends and the population's social problem perception, (3) the subjective evaluation is relatively less institutional in the regions, and among less educated people, and (4) poverty is a typical problem for the less educated people. From institutional perspective, Azerbaijan government should put more effort into enhancing governance quality. On the economic side, the government needs to reconsider its official unemployment and poverty records to do more precise policy es...
The return to education and the gender wage gap are essential issues in the public policy decisio... more The return to education and the gender wage gap are essential issues in the public policy decision-making. Return to wage from attainment of each additional educational level can be a valuable incentive to stimulate people towards higher levels of schooling. The study investigates the return from a higher level of education to hourly earnings and the gap in “returns” due to gender identity differences in the case of Azerbaijan, a resource-rich developing country. We argue that a return to hourly wage from an additional level of education is positive and moderated by gender identity. Based on a pooled cross-sectional dataset (N=4548, n_male=2617; n_female=1931,〖Mean〗_age=34.18), empirical results support the research hypothesis and display a continuous positive return from education attainment. Simultaneously, a lesser return is identified for females. The gender return gap extends further for post-bachelor degrees. The results of this research can help deliver the message of “to ear...
The aim of this research is to empirical evaluation of the role of living conditions and studying... more The aim of this research is to empirical evaluation of the role of living conditions and studying skills over students' academic performance. For this purpose, author uses multi-variableregression model over cross-sectional data with OLS estimation method. Employed data is obtained from survey implemented among Qafqaz University students in Azerbaijan. Taken sample is representative of whole population according to the Chi-Square test results. Research findings provide evidence that people-to-rooms ratio and distance insignificantly affect the SGPA while living with family has significant role over students' academic performance. Note-taking and use of internet has insignificant positive effect. Moreover, research reveals that studying strategy for the exams strongly matter for students' academic performance. Research findings are useful for policy purposes towards developing qualitative education in Azerbaijan.
Outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID -19) is a big threat to social and economic life t... more Outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID -19) is a big threat to social and economic life throughout the world. Increasing number of cases and death as well as social isolation measures against diffusion of the pandemic are predicted to lower subjective well-being of individuals. Using survey data integrated with daily COVID-19 outcomes, the research aims to identify well-being effects of pandemic among Azerbaijan population while considering moderating role of age. Empirical findings reveal significant negative well-being impact for youth which disappears in response to age increase. Meanwhile, the pandemic could have a larger well-being effect through economic effects like fall in perceived income adequacy. Public policy makers should consider direct and indirect well-being effects of COVID-19 over youth and people with lower perceived income adequacy.
Today, WTO is the largest trade organization in the world including most of the world countries. ... more Today, WTO is the largest trade organization in the world including most of the world countries. Although WTO is a world organization covering most of the world trade, it has been subject to many researches and discussions in terms of whether its impact on international trade and economies of the countries is significant or not. In this context, this book aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the WTO and the effects of membership that a nonmember country such as Azerbaijan should take into consideration. The main research question is “what kind of macroeconomic impacts are expected for Azerbaijan economy in case of its accession to WTO”. This book includes discussing trends in some macroeconomic indicators of both Georgia and Armenia as the member countries of WTO. Analyzing Georgia and Armenia economies in before-and-after WTO membership context is supposed to create a general impression about what macroeconomic impacts may be expected for Azerbaijan economy in case of its accession. This analysis has been carried out graphically and empirically.
The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether corporate income tax rates affect the motivat... more The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether corporate income tax rates affect the motivation of entrepreneurs to begin an entrepreneurial activity or not. Because of that we examine how corporate income taxes affect entrepreneurs in Azerbaijan using data in the period between the first quarter of 2004 and the fourth quarter of 2013. Here, simple correlation analysis, impulse-response function analysis, and Johansen co-integration test has been used for the long and short term relationship. The empirical results provide evidence that higher corporate income tax rates exert a slightly positive influence on entrepreneurs in the short-run. However, in the long-run these results are insignificant. We find that the main factors behind this are the application of a simplified tax system of the Tax Code of Azerbaijan Republic that caused a rise in the rate of small entrepreneurship subjects. This paper sheds light on the relationship between corporate income tax rates and the number...
This research study aims to explore the inflationary effects of oil price rises in the case of Az... more This research study aims to explore the inflationary effects of oil price rises in the case of Azerbaijan. The study covers 1997–2021 yearly data to estimate long- and short-term impacts while considering “oil price—money supply” interactions. Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds testing (ARDLBT), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), and Canonical Cointegration Regression (CCR) cointegration methods are applied simultaneously. The research findings are: (1) oil price is a significant long-term determinant of inflation in Azerbaijan, affecting overall prices directly and indirectly via the money supply; (2) the effect is statistically significant in the short-term and happens indirectly, moderated by the money supply; and (3) oil price moderates the impact of the money supply over inflation in the short-term. A major limitation of the current study is that it omits the possible moderation impact of oil prices over inflation in Azerbaijan through the resulting inflationary ...
Intention to emigrate has been one of the most challenging issues globally over the last decade f... more Intention to emigrate has been one of the most challenging issues globally over the last decade for both migrant-sending and receiving countries. Rising emigration intentions trigger migration attempts and brain drain, while migrant-receiving countries are challenged by illegal emigration. Self-perceived trust in government is one of the fundamental determinants of citizens' emigration aspirations. This research applies path analyses to explore direct and indirect effects of trust in government on emigrating intentions in a post-soviet country – Azerbaijan. Using a pool of two social survey data (N=4092,n_Male=2106,n_Female=1986,〖Mean〗_Age=31.82) within a serial mediation analysis framework, we conclude that the trust in government has a significant direct (65-70%) and indirect (30-35%) negative impact on emigration aspirations among the people of Azerbaijan. The relationship is mediated by self-reported life satisfaction. Perceived income adequacy also mediates the relationship...
The research presents an elaborated mapping of common social problems in Azerbaijan across countr... more The research presents an elaborated mapping of common social problems in Azerbaijan across country’s regions. Using a survey dataset of 2161 respondents representing various socio-demographic categories of the population, the study borrows a two-stage approach to identify the “common” social problems in the country. Primary research findings are (1) the "top 5" list includes inflation, unemployment, corruption, state of education and health, and poverty, (2) a correlation exists between macro-economic trends and the population's social problem perception, (3) the subjective evaluation is relatively less institutional in the regions, and among less educated people, and (4) poverty is a typical problem for the less educated people. From institutional perspective, Azerbaijan government should put more effort into enhancing governance quality. On the economic side, the government needs to reconsider its official unemployment and poverty records to do more precise policy es...
The return to education and the gender wage gap are essential issues in the public policy decisio... more The return to education and the gender wage gap are essential issues in the public policy decision-making. Return to wage from attainment of each additional educational level can be a valuable incentive to stimulate people towards higher levels of schooling. The study investigates the return from a higher level of education to hourly earnings and the gap in “returns” due to gender identity differences in the case of Azerbaijan, a resource-rich developing country. We argue that a return to hourly wage from an additional level of education is positive and moderated by gender identity. Based on a pooled cross-sectional dataset (N=4548, n_male=2617; n_female=1931,〖Mean〗_age=34.18), empirical results support the research hypothesis and display a continuous positive return from education attainment. Simultaneously, a lesser return is identified for females. The gender return gap extends further for post-bachelor degrees. The results of this research can help deliver the message of “to ear...
The aim of this research is to empirical evaluation of the role of living conditions and studying... more The aim of this research is to empirical evaluation of the role of living conditions and studying skills over students' academic performance. For this purpose, author uses multi-variableregression model over cross-sectional data with OLS estimation method. Employed data is obtained from survey implemented among Qafqaz University students in Azerbaijan. Taken sample is representative of whole population according to the Chi-Square test results. Research findings provide evidence that people-to-rooms ratio and distance insignificantly affect the SGPA while living with family has significant role over students' academic performance. Note-taking and use of internet has insignificant positive effect. Moreover, research reveals that studying strategy for the exams strongly matter for students' academic performance. Research findings are useful for policy purposes towards developing qualitative education in Azerbaijan.
Outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID -19) is a big threat to social and economic life t... more Outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID -19) is a big threat to social and economic life throughout the world. Increasing number of cases and death as well as social isolation measures against diffusion of the pandemic are predicted to lower subjective well-being of individuals. Using survey data integrated with daily COVID-19 outcomes, the research aims to identify well-being effects of pandemic among Azerbaijan population while considering moderating role of age. Empirical findings reveal significant negative well-being impact for youth which disappears in response to age increase. Meanwhile, the pandemic could have a larger well-being effect through economic effects like fall in perceived income adequacy. Public policy makers should consider direct and indirect well-being effects of COVID-19 over youth and people with lower perceived income adequacy.
Today, WTO is the largest trade organization in the world including most of the world countries. ... more Today, WTO is the largest trade organization in the world including most of the world countries. Although WTO is a world organization covering most of the world trade, it has been subject to many researches and discussions in terms of whether its impact on international trade and economies of the countries is significant or not. In this context, this book aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the WTO and the effects of membership that a nonmember country such as Azerbaijan should take into consideration. The main research question is “what kind of macroeconomic impacts are expected for Azerbaijan economy in case of its accession to WTO”. This book includes discussing trends in some macroeconomic indicators of both Georgia and Armenia as the member countries of WTO. Analyzing Georgia and Armenia economies in before-and-after WTO membership context is supposed to create a general impression about what macroeconomic impacts may be expected for Azerbaijan economy in case of its accession. This analysis has been carried out graphically and empirically.
The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether corporate income tax rates affect the motivat... more The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether corporate income tax rates affect the motivation of entrepreneurs to begin an entrepreneurial activity or not. Because of that we examine how corporate income taxes affect entrepreneurs in Azerbaijan using data in the period between the first quarter of 2004 and the fourth quarter of 2013. Here, simple correlation analysis, impulse-response function analysis, and Johansen co-integration test has been used for the long and short term relationship. The empirical results provide evidence that higher corporate income tax rates exert a slightly positive influence on entrepreneurs in the short-run. However, in the long-run these results are insignificant. We find that the main factors behind this are the application of a simplified tax system of the Tax Code of Azerbaijan Republic that caused a rise in the rate of small entrepreneurship subjects. This paper sheds light on the relationship between corporate income tax rates and the number...
Economic transition story in the South Caucasus economies started after the collapse of the Sovie... more Economic transition story in the South Caucasus economies started after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Theoretically, integration to the World Trade Organization (WTO) system should improve the economic transition performance. This research uses the yearly transition indicators by the EBRD to discover the relationship between economic transition performance and integration to the WTO in the contexts of before-and-after WTO membership and before-and-after the end of concession period defined for a new member to implement all obligations. Author employs bivariate de-trended regression analysis estimated by using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), individually for Armenia and Georgia, and within a panel analysis covering all three countries of the region. Research findings provide strong evidence of significant positive or acceleratory effect of integration to the WTO on economic transition in the South Caucasus. Surprise finding is insignificant impact over competition policy index, which is supposed to be affected by integration.
This paper aims capturing the short-and long-run effects of the factors affecting interest rate r... more This paper aims capturing the short-and long-run effects of the factors affecting interest rate risk in Kosovo banking industry through conducting ARDLBT approach to co-integration for covering data 2004Q1–2014Q4 and monthly based data. However, in the short-run, the effects are contrary to the theoretical expectations. In long run beside bank specific factors were included also macro indicators, most results were as expected where net profit (NP) and overall expenses (EXP) positively affect IRS while GDP and inflation appeared to have negative affect. However, Interest income (INI) showed to be moving differently from expectations where INI effects interest rate spread negatively. Findings shed light on the ongoing concern that followed the whole transition process of the banking industry in Kosovo. Policy makers would benefit not only to improve the current business environment but also conduct further steps in reducing interest rate spread in Kosovo banking industry.
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Papers by Khatai Aliyev