In experiments on risky decisions with gambles as alternatives the central
factors determining de... more In experiments on risky decisions with gambles as alternatives the central factors determining decision behaviour are: The subjective values of the outcomes, and their subjective probability. The present paper first reports results of a number of experiments indicating that this central result cannot be generalized. In quasi-realistic risky scenarios, many decision makers are not interested in probability information and many search actively for risk-defusing operators (RDOs). An RDO is an action intended by the decision maker to be performed additionally to a specific alternative in order to decrease the risk. The paper also gives an overview about experimental research with RDOs. Topics include the factors that determine the search for RDOs and the factors affecting the acceptance of an RDO. Finding an acceptable RDO has a distinct effect on choice: If for a specific risky alternative an RDO is available, this alternative is chosen most often. The consequences of the concept of RDOs on theories about decision behaviour and on aiding decision making are discussed.
In risky decision situations, many decision makers search for risk-defusing operators
(RDOs). An ... more In risky decision situations, many decision makers search for risk-defusing operators (RDOs). An RDO is an action intended by the decision maker to be performed additionally to a specific alternative and is expected to decrease the risk. Pre-event RDOs (e.g., vaccination) have to be applied before a negative event (e.g., infection) occurs. Post-event RDOs do not need to be initiated before and unless the event happens (e.g., medical treatment). For the successful application of Post-event RDOs, the negative event must be detected in time. Two experiments investigated the effect of uncertainty in the detection of the negative event. In Experiment 1, only a small minority of subjects noted this uncertainty without a cue, and even with cue, only a minority actively searched for probability information. In Experiment 2, the probability for correctly detecting the negative event was varied. When detection was certain, most subjects chose the alternative with a Post-event RDO, whereas this percentage decreased significantly with decreasing probability of correct detection. Also, in the conditions with a more extreme negative outcome, less decision makers chose the alternative with the Post-event RDO.
Die empirisch und experimentell arbeitenden Psychologie – kompakt und verständlich. Die seit Jahr... more Die empirisch und experimentell arbeitenden Psychologie – kompakt und verständlich. Die seit Jahren bewährte Einführung macht mit den elementaren Grundlagen des Experimentierens und der Prüfung von empirischen Hypothesen vertraut – konsequent anhand anschaulicher Beispiele und mit vielen praktischen Tipps. Das Konzept des Buches entstand aus der jahrelangen Lehrtätigkeit des Autors in der Methodikausbildung. Das Lehrbuch wurde vielfach erfolgreich in der Praxis erprobt und hat schon Generationen von Studierenden begleitet. In der sechsten Auflage wurde der Text aktualisiert und durch neue Cartoons ergänzt. Unentbehrlich für Studierende der Psychologie und der Nachbardisziplinen, Lehrende im Bereich der Methodenlehre sowie für Nicht-Psychologen, die an einem besseren Verständnis der empirisch und experimentell arbeitenden Psychologie interessiert sind.
Decision behavior in realistic risky scenarios is quite different from that in gambles: Decision ... more Decision behavior in realistic risky scenarios is quite different from that in gambles: Decision makers in the former are less interested in probability information than they are in the latter. Instead, they often attempt to actively manipulate the risk in an otherwise attractive alternative using a risk-defusing operator (RDO). An RDO is an action intended by the decision maker to be performed in addition to the risky but otherwise attractive alternative, and it is expected to decrease the risk (e.g., vaccination, insurance). The search for an RDO and the incorporation of a detected RDO into the alternative cannot be modeled with classical decision theories or heuristics. In this article I present risk-management-decision theory, which describes the decision process with and without RDOs, and give an overview about experimental research with RDOs. I discuss the consequences of the RDO concept for theories of decision behavior.
In experiments with quasi-realistic risky scenarios instead of gambles, decision makers are less ... more In experiments with quasi-realistic risky scenarios instead of gambles, decision makers are less interested in probability information. Often, they actively search for a risk defusing operator (RDO; an action to be performed in addition to a specific alternative and expected to decrease the risk involved). Examples in daily life are insurance and vaccination. In our experiment, the central independent variable
A descriptive multidimensional preference-model (WM) is developed which amalgamates dimension-wis... more A descriptive multidimensional preference-model (WM) is developed which amalgamates dimension-wise preference-relations (preferences in respect to different decision-criteria) into an overall-preference, according to the weights of the dimensions. Apart from the common preference-axioms, WM is based on an axiomatic system C for the weighing of the dimensions. Proofs of consistency and of independence of the axioms are presented. The overall-preference-rektion is shown to be nontransitive. The likewise nontransitive overall-indifference is divided into two other overall-indifference-relations, one of them is transitive, the other nontransitive. Thus WM is able to explain ‘intransitivities’ even if perfect discriminability is assumed. System C is further interpreted as system of Qualitative Probability and its relations to the standard system of Qualitative Probability are analyzed. In the last section WM is compared with some other decision-models (Dominance-rule, Lexicographic-ordering, Majority-rule, Additive-difference-model), some possible interpretations of WM and the limits of WM are discussed.
In experiments on risky decisions with gambles as alternatives the central
factors determining de... more In experiments on risky decisions with gambles as alternatives the central factors determining decision behaviour are: The subjective values of the outcomes, and their subjective probability. The present paper first reports results of a number of experiments indicating that this central result cannot be generalized. In quasi-realistic risky scenarios, many decision makers are not interested in probability information and many search actively for risk-defusing operators (RDOs). An RDO is an action intended by the decision maker to be performed additionally to a specific alternative in order to decrease the risk. The paper also gives an overview about experimental research with RDOs. Topics include the factors that determine the search for RDOs and the factors affecting the acceptance of an RDO. Finding an acceptable RDO has a distinct effect on choice: If for a specific risky alternative an RDO is available, this alternative is chosen most often. The consequences of the concept of RDOs on theories about decision behaviour and on aiding decision making are discussed.
In risky decision situations, many decision makers search for risk-defusing operators
(RDOs). An ... more In risky decision situations, many decision makers search for risk-defusing operators (RDOs). An RDO is an action intended by the decision maker to be performed additionally to a specific alternative and is expected to decrease the risk. Pre-event RDOs (e.g., vaccination) have to be applied before a negative event (e.g., infection) occurs. Post-event RDOs do not need to be initiated before and unless the event happens (e.g., medical treatment). For the successful application of Post-event RDOs, the negative event must be detected in time. Two experiments investigated the effect of uncertainty in the detection of the negative event. In Experiment 1, only a small minority of subjects noted this uncertainty without a cue, and even with cue, only a minority actively searched for probability information. In Experiment 2, the probability for correctly detecting the negative event was varied. When detection was certain, most subjects chose the alternative with a Post-event RDO, whereas this percentage decreased significantly with decreasing probability of correct detection. Also, in the conditions with a more extreme negative outcome, less decision makers chose the alternative with the Post-event RDO.
Die empirisch und experimentell arbeitenden Psychologie – kompakt und verständlich. Die seit Jahr... more Die empirisch und experimentell arbeitenden Psychologie – kompakt und verständlich. Die seit Jahren bewährte Einführung macht mit den elementaren Grundlagen des Experimentierens und der Prüfung von empirischen Hypothesen vertraut – konsequent anhand anschaulicher Beispiele und mit vielen praktischen Tipps. Das Konzept des Buches entstand aus der jahrelangen Lehrtätigkeit des Autors in der Methodikausbildung. Das Lehrbuch wurde vielfach erfolgreich in der Praxis erprobt und hat schon Generationen von Studierenden begleitet. In der sechsten Auflage wurde der Text aktualisiert und durch neue Cartoons ergänzt. Unentbehrlich für Studierende der Psychologie und der Nachbardisziplinen, Lehrende im Bereich der Methodenlehre sowie für Nicht-Psychologen, die an einem besseren Verständnis der empirisch und experimentell arbeitenden Psychologie interessiert sind.
Decision behavior in realistic risky scenarios is quite different from that in gambles: Decision ... more Decision behavior in realistic risky scenarios is quite different from that in gambles: Decision makers in the former are less interested in probability information than they are in the latter. Instead, they often attempt to actively manipulate the risk in an otherwise attractive alternative using a risk-defusing operator (RDO). An RDO is an action intended by the decision maker to be performed in addition to the risky but otherwise attractive alternative, and it is expected to decrease the risk (e.g., vaccination, insurance). The search for an RDO and the incorporation of a detected RDO into the alternative cannot be modeled with classical decision theories or heuristics. In this article I present risk-management-decision theory, which describes the decision process with and without RDOs, and give an overview about experimental research with RDOs. I discuss the consequences of the RDO concept for theories of decision behavior.
In experiments with quasi-realistic risky scenarios instead of gambles, decision makers are less ... more In experiments with quasi-realistic risky scenarios instead of gambles, decision makers are less interested in probability information. Often, they actively search for a risk defusing operator (RDO; an action to be performed in addition to a specific alternative and expected to decrease the risk involved). Examples in daily life are insurance and vaccination. In our experiment, the central independent variable
A descriptive multidimensional preference-model (WM) is developed which amalgamates dimension-wis... more A descriptive multidimensional preference-model (WM) is developed which amalgamates dimension-wise preference-relations (preferences in respect to different decision-criteria) into an overall-preference, according to the weights of the dimensions. Apart from the common preference-axioms, WM is based on an axiomatic system C for the weighing of the dimensions. Proofs of consistency and of independence of the axioms are presented. The overall-preference-rektion is shown to be nontransitive. The likewise nontransitive overall-indifference is divided into two other overall-indifference-relations, one of them is transitive, the other nontransitive. Thus WM is able to explain ‘intransitivities’ even if perfect discriminability is assumed. System C is further interpreted as system of Qualitative Probability and its relations to the standard system of Qualitative Probability are analyzed. In the last section WM is compared with some other decision-models (Dominance-rule, Lexicographic-ordering, Majority-rule, Additive-difference-model), some possible interpretations of WM and the limits of WM are discussed.
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factors determining decision behaviour are: The subjective values of the outcomes,
and their subjective probability.
The present paper first reports results of a number of experiments indicating
that this central result cannot be generalized. In quasi-realistic risky scenarios, many
decision makers are not interested in probability information and many search
actively for risk-defusing operators (RDOs). An RDO is an action intended by the
decision maker to be performed additionally to a specific alternative in order to
decrease the risk.
The paper also gives an overview about experimental research with RDOs.
Topics include the factors that determine the search for RDOs and the factors
affecting the acceptance of an RDO. Finding an acceptable RDO has a distinct effect
on choice: If for a specific risky alternative an RDO is available, this alternative is
chosen most often.
The consequences of the concept of RDOs on theories about decision
behaviour and on aiding decision making are discussed.
(RDOs). An RDO is an action intended by the decision maker to be performed additionally
to a specific alternative and is expected to decrease the risk. Pre-event RDOs (e.g., vaccination)
have to be applied before a negative event (e.g., infection) occurs. Post-event RDOs do not
need to be initiated before and unless the event happens (e.g., medical treatment). For the successful
application of Post-event RDOs, the negative event must be detected in time. Two experiments
investigated the effect of uncertainty in the detection of the negative event. In
Experiment 1, only a small minority of subjects noted this uncertainty without a cue, and even
with cue, only a minority actively searched for probability information. In Experiment 2, the
probability for correctly detecting the negative event was varied. When detection was certain,
most subjects chose the alternative with a Post-event RDO, whereas this percentage decreased
significantly with decreasing probability of correct detection. Also, in the conditions with a
more extreme negative outcome, less decision makers chose the alternative with the Post-event
RDO.
factors determining decision behaviour are: The subjective values of the outcomes,
and their subjective probability.
The present paper first reports results of a number of experiments indicating
that this central result cannot be generalized. In quasi-realistic risky scenarios, many
decision makers are not interested in probability information and many search
actively for risk-defusing operators (RDOs). An RDO is an action intended by the
decision maker to be performed additionally to a specific alternative in order to
decrease the risk.
The paper also gives an overview about experimental research with RDOs.
Topics include the factors that determine the search for RDOs and the factors
affecting the acceptance of an RDO. Finding an acceptable RDO has a distinct effect
on choice: If for a specific risky alternative an RDO is available, this alternative is
chosen most often.
The consequences of the concept of RDOs on theories about decision
behaviour and on aiding decision making are discussed.
(RDOs). An RDO is an action intended by the decision maker to be performed additionally
to a specific alternative and is expected to decrease the risk. Pre-event RDOs (e.g., vaccination)
have to be applied before a negative event (e.g., infection) occurs. Post-event RDOs do not
need to be initiated before and unless the event happens (e.g., medical treatment). For the successful
application of Post-event RDOs, the negative event must be detected in time. Two experiments
investigated the effect of uncertainty in the detection of the negative event. In
Experiment 1, only a small minority of subjects noted this uncertainty without a cue, and even
with cue, only a minority actively searched for probability information. In Experiment 2, the
probability for correctly detecting the negative event was varied. When detection was certain,
most subjects chose the alternative with a Post-event RDO, whereas this percentage decreased
significantly with decreasing probability of correct detection. Also, in the conditions with a
more extreme negative outcome, less decision makers chose the alternative with the Post-event
RDO.