John P. Sullivan was a career police officer with a 30 year career. He completed his PhD in Information and Knowledge Society the Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (Open University of Catalonia). His doctoral dissertation looked at the impact of transnational organized crime on sovereignty in Mexico. He specializes in terrorism, intelligence studies, urban conflict, conflict disaster, gangs, and transnational organized crime. Supervisors: Manuel Castells
This edited collection contains detailed case studies of recent urban conflicts, providing a clea... more This edited collection contains detailed case studies of recent urban conflicts, providing a clear understanding of the unique challenges and strategies involved in urban operations. Conflict ranging from high intensity crime to large-scale combat is addressed. Contains chapters on civil affairs, urban disaster, swarming, virtual urban siege, urban warfare, irregular unban combat, artificial intelligence (AI) in urban operations, surveillance, wargaming, subterranean operations, urban littoral operations, and civilian protection. The text also includes a preface by Jayson Geroux and John Spencer, as well as a postscript on future urban operations by David Kilcullen.
Gang and Cartel Book Reviews − A Small Wars Journal–El Centro E-Book, Jun 2024
This Small Wars Journal–El Centro e-book Edited by Robert J. Bunker and John P. Sullivan contains... more This Small Wars Journal–El Centro e-book Edited by Robert J. Bunker and John P. Sullivan contains thirty-four book reviews published at Small Wars Journal between November 2018 and May 2024. In addition to the reviews, it contains a preface by Daniel Weisz Argomedo, as well as an introduction and conclusion by the editors.
Competition in Order and Progress examines the competition in statemaking between criminal enterp... more Competition in Order and Progress examines the competition in statemaking between criminal enterprises (gangs, militias, and criminal armed groups) and the state. The title builds from Brazil's motto Ordem e Progresso to capture the dynamics of state transition in Brazil's favelas, prisons, and beyond.
Cartel Drone Evolution: Cartel Weaponization of Aerial IEDs, 2021
This curated collection "Criminal Drone Evolution: Cartel Weaponization of Aerial IEDs" documents... more This curated collection "Criminal Drone Evolution: Cartel Weaponization of Aerial IEDs" documents the evolution of drone usage by criminal cartels, gangs, and criminal armed groups (CAGs) in Mexico and beyond. Cartel Drone Evolution demonstrates the development spread of drone technology and tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) among criminal actors while also pointing toward future potentials.
This curated collection Illicit Tactical Progress: Mexican Cartel Tactical Notes 2013-2020 chroni... more This curated collection Illicit Tactical Progress: Mexican Cartel Tactical Notes 2013-2020 chronicling documenting the evolution of tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) used by Mexican cartels and criminal armed groups (CAGs).
The Coronavirus pandemic is fueling conflict and fostering extremism while concurrently empowerin... more The Coronavirus pandemic is fueling conflict and fostering extremism while concurrently empowering gangs, cartels, and mafias in their quest for power and profit. In COVID-19, Gangs, and Conflict, Editors John P. Sullivan and Robert J. Bunker bring together a curated collection of both new and previously published material to explore the trends and potentials of the global pandemic emergency. Topics include an exploration of proto-statemaking by criminal groups, the interaction of pandemics and conflict, as well as a comparison of gangs, criminal cartels, and mafias exploiting the crisis and exerting criminal governance in Brazil, El Salvador, Mexico, Colombia, and South Africa. Implications for national security, biosecurity, slums, transnational organized crime, and threats and opportunities in the contested pandemic space are assessed. SWJ
Strategic Notes on Third Generation Gangs builds upon the third generation street gang (3Gen Gang... more Strategic Notes on Third Generation Gangs builds upon the third generation street gang (3Gen Gang) theory first articulated in a series of papers by John P. Sullivan in 1997. From that foundation, Dr. Sullivan and Dr. Robert J. Bunker, editors of this volume, and others have expanded that core to articulate the threat that sophisticated gangs with transnational reach and political dimensions pose to community, national, and global security. This Small Wars Journal-El Centro Anthology provides empirical depth to their theoretical perspective, bringing together strategic notes and essays on third generation gangs and military-trained gang members with new content assessing the theoretical and policy ramifications of both theory and reality on the ground. — Dave Dilegge, SWJ Editor-in-Chief
Blood and Concrete: 21st Century Conflict in Urban Centers and Megacities provides a foundation f... more Blood and Concrete: 21st Century Conflict in Urban Centers and Megacities provides a foundation for understanding urban operations and sustaining urban warfare research. This Small Wars Journal (SWJ) Anthology documents over a decade of writings on urban conflict. In addition to essays originally published at SWJ it adds new content including an introduction by the editors, a preface on “Blood and Concrete” by David Kilcullen, a foreword "Urban Warfare Studies" by John Spencer, a postscript “Cities in the Crossfire: The Rise of Urban Violence” by Margarita Konaev, and an afterword “Urban Operations: Meeting Challenges, Seizing Opportunities, Improving the Approach” by Russell W. Glenn. These essays frame the discussion found in the collection’s remaining 49 chapters. Blood and Concrete continues the legacy of Small Was Journal's coverage of urban operations, conflict and combat. — Dave Dilegge, Robert J. Bunker, John P. Sullivan, and Alma Keshavarz, Editors.
This book is our sixth Small Wars Journal—El Centro anthology, covering writings published betwee... more This book is our sixth Small Wars Journal—El Centro anthology, covering writings published between 2016 and 2017. The theme of this anthology pertains to the rise of the narcostate (mafia states) as a result of the collusion between criminal organizations and political elites—essentially authoritarian regime members, corrupted plutocrats, and other powerful societal elements. The cover image of the mass demonstration concerning the disappearance of the forty-three Ayotzinapa Teachers’ College students held at Mexico City’s Zócalo Plaza in November 2014 provides an archetype of this anthology’s theme. This anthology includes the following special essays—Preface: “New Wars” and State Transformation by Robert Muggah, Igarapé Institute; Foreword: Crime and State-Making by Vanda Felbab-Brown, The Brookings Institution; Postscript: Crime, Drugs, Terror, and Money: Time for Hybrids by Alain Bauer, CNAM Paris; and Afterword: The Rise of the Oligarchs by Col. Robert Killebrew, US Army (Ret.). Dave Dilegge (SWJ, Editor-in-Chief)
Los Caballeros Templarios de Michoacán: Imagery, Symbolism, and Narratives, 2019
The 279 page edited work "Los Caballeros Templarios de Michoacán: Imagery, Symbolism, and Narrati... more The 279 page edited work "Los Caballeros Templarios de Michoacán: Imagery, Symbolism, and Narratives" is divided into a preface, introduction, twelve chapters, postscript, imagery data set, four appendices, selected references, and further readings. It is a Small Wars Journal-El Centro eBook (Small Wars Foundation) edited by Robert J. Bunker and Alma Keshavarz. The Templarios cartel is an understudied group and it is hoped that this effort has shed some light on their spiritual-criminal activities and the threat this signified to both the Mexican state and its broader society. This cross-disciplinary work represents a unique fusion of organized crime and insurgency (criminal & spiritual) focused scholarship blended with contributors with religious (and magico-religious) studies expertise. The experts contributing to it collectively recognize and challenge exclusive narco secular status quo perceptions, finding that not all cartel activity taking place is simply secular in nature and devoid of any underlying spiritual motivations.
This Small Wars Journal - El Centro Anthology is the Fifth in a series. It includes submissions ... more This Small Wars Journal - El Centro Anthology is the Fifth in a series. It includes submissions to the journal regarding criminal insurgency, crime, and conflict in Mexico and Latin America as well as a foreward, introduction, and Postscript.
The 4th Small Wars Journal-El Centro anthology comes at a pivotal time, roughly a third of the wa... more The 4th Small Wars Journal-El Centro anthology comes at a pivotal time, roughly a third of the way through the term, for the Enrique Peña Nieto administration in Mexico. The mass kidnapping and execution of 43 rural student teachers in Iguala, Guerrero in late September 2014 has only served to further highlight the corruptive effects of organized crime on the public institutions in that country. In addition, many other states in Latin America are now suffering at the hands of criminal insurgents who are threatening their citizens and challenging their sovereign rights.
This book, Counterterrorism: Bridging Operations and Theory, is meant to help facilitate the gulf... more This book, Counterterrorism: Bridging Operations and Theory, is meant to help facilitate the gulf between those engaging in applied aspects of counterterrorism--essentially early warning, pre-emption response, mitigation, and consequence management--and those who are studying the underlying components of terrorism itself--e.g. how to define it, its causation, radicalization processes, group evolutionary patterns, and incident lessons learned--in order to better understand this phenomena for counterterrorism research purposes. Often such a diverse grouping of professionals and scholars are not found together in a project such as this because their paths do not normally cross.
This work marks the 3rd Small Wars Journal-El Centro anthology. Its analyses, crafted by over thi... more This work marks the 3rd Small Wars Journal-El Centro anthology. Its analyses, crafted by over thirty contributing authors, forms a compilation of the violence and corruption in Mexico plaguing the first year of Enrique Peña Nieto's presidency. Instances of spillover violence in the United States and the gang and cartel crime wars in other Latin American countries are also chronicled. Spanish language article appendices are additionally incorporated in this important anthology.
""Concerns over the changing nature of gangs and cartels and their relationships to states in the... more ""Concerns over the changing nature of gangs and cartels and their relationships to states in the late 20th and early 21st centuries has resulted in the emergence of a scholarly body of work focused on their national security threat potentials. This body of work, utilizing the third generation gangs and third phase cartel typologies, represents an alternative to traditional gang and organized crime research and one that is increasingly influencing the US defense community. Rather than being viewed only as misguided youth and opportunistic criminals or, in their mature forms, as criminal organizations with no broader social or political agendas, more evolved gangs and cartels, are instead seen as developing political, mercenary, and state-challenging capacities. This evolutionary process has emerged due to the growing illicit economy and other unintended consequences of globalization.
This important anthology of writings by Robert J. Bunker and John P. Sullivan draws upon a collection of their works from the mid-1990s to the present with the addition of new essays written specifically for this publication. The work will be of great interest to academics and students in the fields of political science and criminal justice and to military, law enforcement, and governmental professionals and policy makers.
This book is a collection of new and previously published works from a variety of publications, a full list of which is on the Citation Information page. Appendices are available on line at Claremont Scholarship: http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgu_facbooks/13/
This edited collection from 'Small Wars Journal - El Centro' examines Mexico's drug war/criminal ... more This edited collection from 'Small Wars Journal - El Centro' examines Mexico's drug war/criminal insurgencies. Primary authors are John P. Sullivan and Robert J. Bunker. Includes contributions from Hal Brands, Pamela Bunker, Dave Dillege, Adam Elkus, Paul Rexton Kan, Robert Killebrew, and Max Manwaring.
This edited collection provides a case study of the Los Angeles Terrorism Early Warning Group (LA... more This edited collection provides a case study of the Los Angeles Terrorism Early Warning Group (LA TEW). It documents the LA TEW's evolution and contribution to counterterrorism intelligence analysis and fusion. Key doctrinal concepts, including "intelligence co-production" and Intelligence Preparation for Operations (IPO) are discussed.
The Los Angeles TEW developed network approaches to network threats. It also sought to anticipate novel and emerging threats—i.e., develop early warning. As a result, the TEW developed an overarching mission statement for the Los Angeles TEW and the broader TEW network: "To develop operational intelligence for [our] area of operations, and contribute to the co-production of intelligence across the TEW and intelligence fusion community in order to prevent, counter and respond to terrorism and emerging threats by conducting indications and warning and operational net assessment." The evolution and maturation of TEW processes are documented in this work.
This book explores a range of biohealth and biosecurity threats, places them in context, and offe... more This book explores a range of biohealth and biosecurity threats, places them in context, and offers responses and solutions from global and local, networked and pyramidal, as well as specialized and interdisciplinary perspectives.
Specifically covering bioterrorism, emerging infectious diseases, pandemic disease preparedness and remediation, agroterroism, food safety, and environmental issues, the contributors demonstrate that to counter terrorism of any kind, a global, networked, and multidisciplinary approach is essential. To be successful in biosecurity, this book argues it is necessary to extend partnerships, cooperation, and co-ordination between public health, clinical medicine, private business, law enforcement and other agencies locally, nationally and internationally. Internationally, a clear understanding is needed of what has happened in past epidemics and what was accomplished in past bioprograms (in Britain, South Africa, Russia, for example). This book also assesses how, with the right technology and motivation, both a state and a non-state actor could initiate an extremely credible biothreat to security at both local and national levels.
This volume shows us that in order to deal with today’s Fourth Generation asymmetric warfare by t... more This volume shows us that in order to deal with today’s Fourth Generation asymmetric warfare by terrorist groups using conventional arms and weapons of mass destruction, we need a new ‘global networked’ approach.
The contributors examine the various attempts that have been made to counter the latest wave of terrorism, including the US strikes against Afghanistan and Iraq, President George W. Bush's declaration of a ‘war against terrorism’, the creation of the US Department of Homeland Security, and the 9/11 Commission. Drawing from our experience with ‘Terrorism Early Warning’ and the co-production of counter-terrorism intelligence, this book explains the need for such a network and shows how it could be formed. It compiles the opinions of experts from clinical medicine, public policy, law enforcement and the military. These expert contributors identify the nature of a global counter-terrorism network, show how it could be created, and provide clear guidelines for gauging its future effectiveness.
This book will be of great interest to all students of terrorism studies, US national security, international relations, and political science in general.
The first chapter reviews the nature and extent of rail and subway crime, followed by a chapter t... more The first chapter reviews the nature and extent of rail and subway crime, followed by a chapter that examines maritime security issues. Seaport security, cargo theft and pilferage, along with security issues facing vessel masters at port and underway, are discussed. The need for an integrated approach to these issues is emphasized. Following a discussion of the nature and extent of airport crime and aviation security, transportation terrorism is addressed. Information provides the basis for developing technological and tactical responses. This chapter considers the essential elements of a comprehensive threat- management program. Another chapter examines drug trafficking and its impact on the transportation industry, focusing on the way illegal drugs are smuggled through transportation centers. Interdiction and enforcement strategies are discussed. Hazardous cargo in transit is the focus of one chapter; it explores the public safety issues that result from accidents with hazardous materials involved. Bus and rail terminal crimes are addressed in another chapter. Topics discussed in the remaining chapters are issues associated with the homeless and mentally ill persons who congregate in urban transit centers and the overall role of specialized transport policing. Chapter notes, an appended discussion of rail-directed terrorism, and a subject index
This edited collection contains detailed case studies of recent urban conflicts, providing a clea... more This edited collection contains detailed case studies of recent urban conflicts, providing a clear understanding of the unique challenges and strategies involved in urban operations. Conflict ranging from high intensity crime to large-scale combat is addressed. Contains chapters on civil affairs, urban disaster, swarming, virtual urban siege, urban warfare, irregular unban combat, artificial intelligence (AI) in urban operations, surveillance, wargaming, subterranean operations, urban littoral operations, and civilian protection. The text also includes a preface by Jayson Geroux and John Spencer, as well as a postscript on future urban operations by David Kilcullen.
Gang and Cartel Book Reviews − A Small Wars Journal–El Centro E-Book, Jun 2024
This Small Wars Journal–El Centro e-book Edited by Robert J. Bunker and John P. Sullivan contains... more This Small Wars Journal–El Centro e-book Edited by Robert J. Bunker and John P. Sullivan contains thirty-four book reviews published at Small Wars Journal between November 2018 and May 2024. In addition to the reviews, it contains a preface by Daniel Weisz Argomedo, as well as an introduction and conclusion by the editors.
Competition in Order and Progress examines the competition in statemaking between criminal enterp... more Competition in Order and Progress examines the competition in statemaking between criminal enterprises (gangs, militias, and criminal armed groups) and the state. The title builds from Brazil's motto Ordem e Progresso to capture the dynamics of state transition in Brazil's favelas, prisons, and beyond.
Cartel Drone Evolution: Cartel Weaponization of Aerial IEDs, 2021
This curated collection "Criminal Drone Evolution: Cartel Weaponization of Aerial IEDs" documents... more This curated collection "Criminal Drone Evolution: Cartel Weaponization of Aerial IEDs" documents the evolution of drone usage by criminal cartels, gangs, and criminal armed groups (CAGs) in Mexico and beyond. Cartel Drone Evolution demonstrates the development spread of drone technology and tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) among criminal actors while also pointing toward future potentials.
This curated collection Illicit Tactical Progress: Mexican Cartel Tactical Notes 2013-2020 chroni... more This curated collection Illicit Tactical Progress: Mexican Cartel Tactical Notes 2013-2020 chronicling documenting the evolution of tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) used by Mexican cartels and criminal armed groups (CAGs).
The Coronavirus pandemic is fueling conflict and fostering extremism while concurrently empowerin... more The Coronavirus pandemic is fueling conflict and fostering extremism while concurrently empowering gangs, cartels, and mafias in their quest for power and profit. In COVID-19, Gangs, and Conflict, Editors John P. Sullivan and Robert J. Bunker bring together a curated collection of both new and previously published material to explore the trends and potentials of the global pandemic emergency. Topics include an exploration of proto-statemaking by criminal groups, the interaction of pandemics and conflict, as well as a comparison of gangs, criminal cartels, and mafias exploiting the crisis and exerting criminal governance in Brazil, El Salvador, Mexico, Colombia, and South Africa. Implications for national security, biosecurity, slums, transnational organized crime, and threats and opportunities in the contested pandemic space are assessed. SWJ
Strategic Notes on Third Generation Gangs builds upon the third generation street gang (3Gen Gang... more Strategic Notes on Third Generation Gangs builds upon the third generation street gang (3Gen Gang) theory first articulated in a series of papers by John P. Sullivan in 1997. From that foundation, Dr. Sullivan and Dr. Robert J. Bunker, editors of this volume, and others have expanded that core to articulate the threat that sophisticated gangs with transnational reach and political dimensions pose to community, national, and global security. This Small Wars Journal-El Centro Anthology provides empirical depth to their theoretical perspective, bringing together strategic notes and essays on third generation gangs and military-trained gang members with new content assessing the theoretical and policy ramifications of both theory and reality on the ground. — Dave Dilegge, SWJ Editor-in-Chief
Blood and Concrete: 21st Century Conflict in Urban Centers and Megacities provides a foundation f... more Blood and Concrete: 21st Century Conflict in Urban Centers and Megacities provides a foundation for understanding urban operations and sustaining urban warfare research. This Small Wars Journal (SWJ) Anthology documents over a decade of writings on urban conflict. In addition to essays originally published at SWJ it adds new content including an introduction by the editors, a preface on “Blood and Concrete” by David Kilcullen, a foreword "Urban Warfare Studies" by John Spencer, a postscript “Cities in the Crossfire: The Rise of Urban Violence” by Margarita Konaev, and an afterword “Urban Operations: Meeting Challenges, Seizing Opportunities, Improving the Approach” by Russell W. Glenn. These essays frame the discussion found in the collection’s remaining 49 chapters. Blood and Concrete continues the legacy of Small Was Journal's coverage of urban operations, conflict and combat. — Dave Dilegge, Robert J. Bunker, John P. Sullivan, and Alma Keshavarz, Editors.
This book is our sixth Small Wars Journal—El Centro anthology, covering writings published betwee... more This book is our sixth Small Wars Journal—El Centro anthology, covering writings published between 2016 and 2017. The theme of this anthology pertains to the rise of the narcostate (mafia states) as a result of the collusion between criminal organizations and political elites—essentially authoritarian regime members, corrupted plutocrats, and other powerful societal elements. The cover image of the mass demonstration concerning the disappearance of the forty-three Ayotzinapa Teachers’ College students held at Mexico City’s Zócalo Plaza in November 2014 provides an archetype of this anthology’s theme. This anthology includes the following special essays—Preface: “New Wars” and State Transformation by Robert Muggah, Igarapé Institute; Foreword: Crime and State-Making by Vanda Felbab-Brown, The Brookings Institution; Postscript: Crime, Drugs, Terror, and Money: Time for Hybrids by Alain Bauer, CNAM Paris; and Afterword: The Rise of the Oligarchs by Col. Robert Killebrew, US Army (Ret.). Dave Dilegge (SWJ, Editor-in-Chief)
Los Caballeros Templarios de Michoacán: Imagery, Symbolism, and Narratives, 2019
The 279 page edited work "Los Caballeros Templarios de Michoacán: Imagery, Symbolism, and Narrati... more The 279 page edited work "Los Caballeros Templarios de Michoacán: Imagery, Symbolism, and Narratives" is divided into a preface, introduction, twelve chapters, postscript, imagery data set, four appendices, selected references, and further readings. It is a Small Wars Journal-El Centro eBook (Small Wars Foundation) edited by Robert J. Bunker and Alma Keshavarz. The Templarios cartel is an understudied group and it is hoped that this effort has shed some light on their spiritual-criminal activities and the threat this signified to both the Mexican state and its broader society. This cross-disciplinary work represents a unique fusion of organized crime and insurgency (criminal & spiritual) focused scholarship blended with contributors with religious (and magico-religious) studies expertise. The experts contributing to it collectively recognize and challenge exclusive narco secular status quo perceptions, finding that not all cartel activity taking place is simply secular in nature and devoid of any underlying spiritual motivations.
This Small Wars Journal - El Centro Anthology is the Fifth in a series. It includes submissions ... more This Small Wars Journal - El Centro Anthology is the Fifth in a series. It includes submissions to the journal regarding criminal insurgency, crime, and conflict in Mexico and Latin America as well as a foreward, introduction, and Postscript.
The 4th Small Wars Journal-El Centro anthology comes at a pivotal time, roughly a third of the wa... more The 4th Small Wars Journal-El Centro anthology comes at a pivotal time, roughly a third of the way through the term, for the Enrique Peña Nieto administration in Mexico. The mass kidnapping and execution of 43 rural student teachers in Iguala, Guerrero in late September 2014 has only served to further highlight the corruptive effects of organized crime on the public institutions in that country. In addition, many other states in Latin America are now suffering at the hands of criminal insurgents who are threatening their citizens and challenging their sovereign rights.
This book, Counterterrorism: Bridging Operations and Theory, is meant to help facilitate the gulf... more This book, Counterterrorism: Bridging Operations and Theory, is meant to help facilitate the gulf between those engaging in applied aspects of counterterrorism--essentially early warning, pre-emption response, mitigation, and consequence management--and those who are studying the underlying components of terrorism itself--e.g. how to define it, its causation, radicalization processes, group evolutionary patterns, and incident lessons learned--in order to better understand this phenomena for counterterrorism research purposes. Often such a diverse grouping of professionals and scholars are not found together in a project such as this because their paths do not normally cross.
This work marks the 3rd Small Wars Journal-El Centro anthology. Its analyses, crafted by over thi... more This work marks the 3rd Small Wars Journal-El Centro anthology. Its analyses, crafted by over thirty contributing authors, forms a compilation of the violence and corruption in Mexico plaguing the first year of Enrique Peña Nieto's presidency. Instances of spillover violence in the United States and the gang and cartel crime wars in other Latin American countries are also chronicled. Spanish language article appendices are additionally incorporated in this important anthology.
""Concerns over the changing nature of gangs and cartels and their relationships to states in the... more ""Concerns over the changing nature of gangs and cartels and their relationships to states in the late 20th and early 21st centuries has resulted in the emergence of a scholarly body of work focused on their national security threat potentials. This body of work, utilizing the third generation gangs and third phase cartel typologies, represents an alternative to traditional gang and organized crime research and one that is increasingly influencing the US defense community. Rather than being viewed only as misguided youth and opportunistic criminals or, in their mature forms, as criminal organizations with no broader social or political agendas, more evolved gangs and cartels, are instead seen as developing political, mercenary, and state-challenging capacities. This evolutionary process has emerged due to the growing illicit economy and other unintended consequences of globalization.
This important anthology of writings by Robert J. Bunker and John P. Sullivan draws upon a collection of their works from the mid-1990s to the present with the addition of new essays written specifically for this publication. The work will be of great interest to academics and students in the fields of political science and criminal justice and to military, law enforcement, and governmental professionals and policy makers.
This book is a collection of new and previously published works from a variety of publications, a full list of which is on the Citation Information page. Appendices are available on line at Claremont Scholarship: http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgu_facbooks/13/
This edited collection from 'Small Wars Journal - El Centro' examines Mexico's drug war/criminal ... more This edited collection from 'Small Wars Journal - El Centro' examines Mexico's drug war/criminal insurgencies. Primary authors are John P. Sullivan and Robert J. Bunker. Includes contributions from Hal Brands, Pamela Bunker, Dave Dillege, Adam Elkus, Paul Rexton Kan, Robert Killebrew, and Max Manwaring.
This edited collection provides a case study of the Los Angeles Terrorism Early Warning Group (LA... more This edited collection provides a case study of the Los Angeles Terrorism Early Warning Group (LA TEW). It documents the LA TEW's evolution and contribution to counterterrorism intelligence analysis and fusion. Key doctrinal concepts, including "intelligence co-production" and Intelligence Preparation for Operations (IPO) are discussed.
The Los Angeles TEW developed network approaches to network threats. It also sought to anticipate novel and emerging threats—i.e., develop early warning. As a result, the TEW developed an overarching mission statement for the Los Angeles TEW and the broader TEW network: "To develop operational intelligence for [our] area of operations, and contribute to the co-production of intelligence across the TEW and intelligence fusion community in order to prevent, counter and respond to terrorism and emerging threats by conducting indications and warning and operational net assessment." The evolution and maturation of TEW processes are documented in this work.
This book explores a range of biohealth and biosecurity threats, places them in context, and offe... more This book explores a range of biohealth and biosecurity threats, places them in context, and offers responses and solutions from global and local, networked and pyramidal, as well as specialized and interdisciplinary perspectives.
Specifically covering bioterrorism, emerging infectious diseases, pandemic disease preparedness and remediation, agroterroism, food safety, and environmental issues, the contributors demonstrate that to counter terrorism of any kind, a global, networked, and multidisciplinary approach is essential. To be successful in biosecurity, this book argues it is necessary to extend partnerships, cooperation, and co-ordination between public health, clinical medicine, private business, law enforcement and other agencies locally, nationally and internationally. Internationally, a clear understanding is needed of what has happened in past epidemics and what was accomplished in past bioprograms (in Britain, South Africa, Russia, for example). This book also assesses how, with the right technology and motivation, both a state and a non-state actor could initiate an extremely credible biothreat to security at both local and national levels.
This volume shows us that in order to deal with today’s Fourth Generation asymmetric warfare by t... more This volume shows us that in order to deal with today’s Fourth Generation asymmetric warfare by terrorist groups using conventional arms and weapons of mass destruction, we need a new ‘global networked’ approach.
The contributors examine the various attempts that have been made to counter the latest wave of terrorism, including the US strikes against Afghanistan and Iraq, President George W. Bush's declaration of a ‘war against terrorism’, the creation of the US Department of Homeland Security, and the 9/11 Commission. Drawing from our experience with ‘Terrorism Early Warning’ and the co-production of counter-terrorism intelligence, this book explains the need for such a network and shows how it could be formed. It compiles the opinions of experts from clinical medicine, public policy, law enforcement and the military. These expert contributors identify the nature of a global counter-terrorism network, show how it could be created, and provide clear guidelines for gauging its future effectiveness.
This book will be of great interest to all students of terrorism studies, US national security, international relations, and political science in general.
The first chapter reviews the nature and extent of rail and subway crime, followed by a chapter t... more The first chapter reviews the nature and extent of rail and subway crime, followed by a chapter that examines maritime security issues. Seaport security, cargo theft and pilferage, along with security issues facing vessel masters at port and underway, are discussed. The need for an integrated approach to these issues is emphasized. Following a discussion of the nature and extent of airport crime and aviation security, transportation terrorism is addressed. Information provides the basis for developing technological and tactical responses. This chapter considers the essential elements of a comprehensive threat- management program. Another chapter examines drug trafficking and its impact on the transportation industry, focusing on the way illegal drugs are smuggled through transportation centers. Interdiction and enforcement strategies are discussed. Hazardous cargo in transit is the focus of one chapter; it explores the public safety issues that result from accidents with hazardous materials involved. Bus and rail terminal crimes are addressed in another chapter. Topics discussed in the remaining chapters are issues associated with the homeless and mentally ill persons who congregate in urban transit centers and the overall role of specialized transport policing. Chapter notes, an appended discussion of rail-directed terrorism, and a subject index
Transnational Organized Crime exploits the complex relationships of local and global networks com... more Transnational Organized Crime exploits the complex relationships of local and global networks comprised of a range of criminal car- tels, mafias, gangs, and corrupt state actors. This article will look at the links among these criminal enterprises and state actors, at municipal, sub-state, and state levels in Latin America to frame the contours of this segment of the global illicit political economy. The networks of alliances and co-operation among criminal cartels, transnational gangs, mafias, and state actors will be assessed. This includes criminal alliances of cartels and gangs with global mafias, the presence of criminal governance, transnational (and third gen- eration) gangs, and links with hybrid threats and influence opera- tions involving state actors. Examples will be drawn from Mexico, Central America, Venezuela, and Brazil. These examples will look at global links between cartels and gangs with transnational mafia such as the ‘Ndrangheta, as well as the use of strategic crime and corruption by states such as Russia, China, and Iran. Methods include a mix of quantitative methods, such as social network analysis (SNA), and qualitative cases studies.
The current study focuses on a federal Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act indictm... more The current study focuses on a federal Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act indictment of MS-13 gang members who were charged based on a nine-and-a-half-year multi-agency investigation in Southern California. Using a social network analysis approach, the authors examine the relationship between crime types, shot-callers, and actor centrality metrics, and the importance and positioning of confidential informants (CIs) in gathering evidence and intelligence in largescale gang investigations. Consistent with previous literature on the role of shot-callers, findings suggested the crime types murder/attempted murder are significantly related to those identified in the indictment and named as shot-callers. However, the centrality measures for shot-callers were not significantly different from those for other members. Finally, one particular CI played a significant role in the network, as s/he had the highest centrality measures. We also discuss implications for future research on CIs and their roles in evidence collection.
The United States and Mexico have maintained a strong partnership due to proximity and the mutual... more The United States and Mexico have maintained a strong partnership due to proximity and the mutual economic benefits of trade.[1] However, this proximity also creates vulnerabilities for criminal exploitation. Mexico has seen a continuous battle against transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) that has resulted in government corruption and a growing danger to US national security.[2] The shared border and existing trade agreements make the United States a target for criminal activity such as smuggling and violence.[3] This has been the case since the 1980s when the US-Mexico border became the favored route for smuggling drugs into the United States.[4] Since then, Mexican TCOs have increased drug production over the years and were identified as the greatest drug-supplying threat to the United States in 2021.[5]
This technical paper recounts a geospatial drone security assessment for the Port of Brownsville,... more This technical paper recounts a geospatial drone security assessment for the Port of Brownsville, Texas (Brownsville Navigation District). The Port of Brownsville is a major intermodal transportation center and is expanding into a major venue for industrial development. The Port of Brownsville is the only deep-water port directly on the US-Mexico Border. The drone assessment will evaluate the threats posed by aerial drones/unmanned or uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) to the port; assess the potential effects of drones on port operations and port security; suggest potential counter measures (counter-UAS); provide an introduction to emerging drone threats, including unmanned/uncrewed vessels and ground vehicles; and drone swarms (or swarming attacks). The impact of various drone threats with port operations is discussed. Mechanisms for enhancing indications and warning, detection, and response to drone threats on the Port of Brownsville, and potential vehicles for sharing these threat data with other ports, port security personnel, law enforcement, and emergency responders will be discussed.
Modern urban siege is a metaphor for evolved urban campaigns. The template for such attacks draws... more Modern urban siege is a metaphor for evolved urban campaigns. The template for such attacks draws from the tactics seen in the 26/11 Mumbai attack in 2008, and continued with the 2013 Westgate Mall attack in Kenya, the January 2015 Charlie Hebdo and Hyper Cacher attacks in Paris and the November 2015 attacks against the Stade de France and Bataclan. These virtual sieges employ swarming tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) to provide a template for urban strife and insecurity. This article provides an overview of terrorist swarming tactics, expanding the aperture to review the use of similar TTPs by criminal gangs in Brazil in the Novo Cangaço style high intensity robberies and raids. The article will then review the October 2019 Battle of Culiacán or Culiacanazo, where elements of the Cártel de Sinaloa (CDS) employed urban siege TTPs to counter the arrest of cartel leaders by state security forces. The second incident occurred in January 2023 when the CDS again employed swarming TTPs in an unsuccessful attempt to thwart the arrest of Ovidio Guzmán.
Introductory article to the Special Issue on Urban Security, co-edited by John P. Sullivan, Natha... more Introductory article to the Special Issue on Urban Security, co-edited by John P. Sullivan, Nathan P. Jones, and Daniel W. Argomedo.
This paper uses social network analysis (SNA) and node similarity-based algorithms to predict lin... more This paper uses social network analysis (SNA) and node similarity-based algorithms to predict links in Mexico's network of criminal organizations. We use four algorithms to estimate the likelihood that a link will be formed between two unconnected organizations in the network. We �nd that all four algorithms are useful to predict the formation of new connections, but that the preferential attachment algorithm performed the best given the power law-like distribution of the criminal network. Further, our qualitative analysis indicates that these predicted relationships may represent existing alliances that have not been observed due to the clandestine nature of the criminal network. Thus, The Use of Similarity-based Algorithms to Predict Links in Mexican Cr... https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/use-similarity-based-algorithms... 1 of 30 8/31/2023, 12:40 PM these link-predictive algorithms may be an important policy and intelligence tool for identifying potential missing data and allowing intelligence o�cials and policymakers to gain a better understanding of these network structures.
Forza alla legge studi storici su Carabinieri, Gendarmerie e Polizie Armate; FVCINA DI MARTE 14, 2023
Mexico has embarked upon a fundamental reform of its security appa- ratus at the federal level un... more Mexico has embarked upon a fundamental reform of its security appa- ratus at the federal level under the leadership of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador as part of his “Fourth Transformation” of Mexico. The Mexican Fed- eral Police and Gendarmerie forces have been absorbed along with significant numbers of former soldiers into the Mexican Guardia Nacional (GN – National Guard). The Mexican GN is a large gendarmerie force intended to have the ca- pacity to confront criminal armed groups (CAGs). The Guardia Nacional is in its nascent stages, but has already taken on myriad mission areas and has close ties to the Mexican military raising questions of civil-military relations and the impact on law enforcement. This paper focuses on the 2012-2019 period and the shift to the new GN force. It will provide policy recommendations for Mexico in the context of this new gendarmerie force and the profit motivated CAGs that threaten Mexico’s internal security.
In his landmark trilogy, The Information Age: Economy, Society and Culture, sociologist Manuel Ca... more In his landmark trilogy, The Information Age: Economy, Society and Culture, sociologist Manuel Castells argued that networks, information technology, and global economic flows were altering the nature of politics, power, and states. This article examines the network dynamics Castells wrote about in relation to transnational crime and illicit economic markets. The article further explores Castells's influence on the study of transnational organized crime, illicit networks, and the global illicit economy.
This technical paper is the first part of a three part series. It frames the issue of current and... more This technical paper is the first part of a three part series. It frames the issue of current and protentional threats to homeland security posed by Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), commonly and hereby referred to as drones, on public stadiums.
The potential use of aerial drones—or small unmanned or uncrewed aerial systems (sUAS)—to attack ... more The potential use of aerial drones—or small unmanned or uncrewed aerial systems (sUAS)—to attack or disrupt outdoor public gatherings or sports events at stadiums (stadia), race tracks, or other outdoor venues is a serious public safety concern. It is also a concern to the operators of these facilities since it can have devastating business consequences that amplify the threat to human life. Terrorist threats employing weaponized consumer drones have been a growing concern since the mid-1990s.
Detecting and countering drone threats at public stadiums and large events is a necessary compone... more Detecting and countering drone threats at public stadiums and large events is a necessary component of modern emergency operations and crisis management. Large event and stadium security regularly deploys drone detection technologies and may soon deploy counter drone technologies. This final technical paper in our series on drones as potential threats to public stadiums will discuss: 1) examples of specific technologies incident commanders will need to integrate drone threat awareness into their planning and operations, 2) provide an overview of drone detection technologies; 3) provide specific examples of drone detection through the lens of the Astroworld event on 5 November 2021, and finally 4) provide policy and operational recommendations for a path forward to secure public stadiums and mass events as drones become an increasingly important part of the threat environment.
This paper discusses the range of intelligence challenges and approaches to addressing the cross-... more This paper discusses the range of intelligence challenges and approaches to addressing the cross-cutting issues of crime, gangs, and terrorism. These approaches include fusion centers, terrorism early warning, and analysis/synthesis approaches. Tools potentially included within these approaches include red teaming, transaction analysis, intelligence preparation for operations (IPO), social network analysis (SNA), as well as automated open-source early warning tools and datasets to support a range of analytical activities, information-sharing, and the production-or co-production-of intelligence.
This article assesses Mexico's organized crime alliance and subgroup network structures. Through ... more This article assesses Mexico's organized crime alliance and subgroup network structures. Through social network analysis (SNA) of data from Lantia Consultores, a consulting firm in Mexico that specializes in the analysis of public policies, it demonstrates differential alliance structures within Mexico's bipolar illicit network system. The Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación's (CJNG) alliance structure is top-down and hierarchical, while the Sinaloa Cartel is denser, particularly in the broader Tierra Caliente region. Additionally, our analysis found a sparse overall network with many isolates (groups with no relations to other groups) and disconnected components. Further, we identified organized crime networks that might fill future power vacuums based on their network positions, following state or rival high-value targeting of major cartels. The implications of these findings are discussed, and policy recommendations are provided.
The utilization of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) and Vehicle
Borne Improvised Explosive De... more The utilization of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) and Vehicle
Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIEDS) by the Mexican cartels has gone through two historical phases with a more recent third phase beginning in August 2016. That phase, taking place between the Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) and the Cártel de Santa Rosa Lima (CSRL) in Guanajuato state and limited surrounding areas, has since fully ebbed with the implosion of the CSRL since the arrest of its leader José Antonio Yépez Ortiz (aka “El Marro”) in late 2020. What can now be considered a new fourth phase of cartel IED utilization (devoid of VBIEDs – or at least anti-personnel bombs placed in cars) has now begun since January 2021 and is presently ongoing.
This article is a mixed methods research study, using social network analysis (SNA), on the Mexic... more This article is a mixed methods research study, using social network analysis (SNA), on the Mexican Mafia (La Eme) and La Familia Michoacana (La Familia or LFM), with a focus on their alliance, dubbed “The Project.” Using two indictments of the Mexican Mafia that included an attempt to establish a permanent relationship with the Mexican La Familia drug cartel.
International Review of the Red Cross, Sep 7, 2022
Violent conflicts involving non-State armed groups challenge conventional perceptions of war and ... more Violent conflicts involving non-State armed groups challenge conventional perceptions of war and armed conflict. Criminal enterprises (transnational organized criminal groups including gangs and cartels) are involved in violent competition for both profit and territorial control in many parts of the world. This paper examines the situation in Mexico and Brazil as case studies to assess the legal challenges to criminal armed violence when criminal groups battle among themselves and the State. The paper focuses on the operational challenges and considerations facing police, military, and security forces and justice institutions to illuminate the legal challenges.
While conflict, crime, and terrorism are persistent geopolitical and human security threats, clim... more While conflict, crime, and terrorism are persistent geopolitical and human security threats, climate change can be a threat multiplier, affecting geopolitical stability on local, regional, and global scales. This paper provides a qualitative assessment of the literature and geopolitical trends related to climate change, migration, and ethnocentrism in order to evaluate the current situation and future potentials for climate-driven conflict, crime, terrorism, and ethnocentric extremism. The paper concludes that as climate change becomes a major driver of environmental degradation, natural disasters, mass migrations, and urbanization, this will escalate the impetus for violence against migrants, the exploitation of migrants, and anti-migrant politics. Potential implications in terms of terrorism and extremism are discussed.
New Global Cities In Latin America and Asia: Welcome to the Twenty-First Century, 2022
Urban conflict and transnational crime are pressing concerns in many regions. This is especially ... more Urban conflict and transnational crime are pressing concerns in many regions. This is especially true in Latin America. This chapter explores the relationship between crime and conflict in Latin American cities. The concepts of "global cities" and "global gangs" are reviewed to illuminate the interactions between illicit and licit activities-that is, underworld and upper-world economic flows and political economy-corruption, and linkages to global and transnational economics. The Rise of Urban Conflict Urban conflict comes in many guises. These can include full-blown urban warfare involving international armed conflicts, noninternational armed conflicts, or a complex combination of both; endemic crime; and urban terrorism and civil strife (Konaev and Spencer 2018; Sullivan 2018a). Obviously, conflict in urban settings poses many challenges to the populace and the state. While protecting the public is foremost among these challenges, a range of tactical, operational, and strategic considerations arise for police, state security services, and urban political organs-mayors, city councils, and the public services they provide, ranging from physical infrastructure through healthcare, education, and policing. The most
This paper assesses Mexico’s organized crime alliance and subgroup network structures. Through so... more This paper assesses Mexico’s organized crime alliance and subgroup network structures. Through social network analysis (SNA) of data from Lantia Consultores, a consulting firm in Mexico that specializes in the analysis of public policies, it demonstrates differential alliance structures within Mexico’s bipolar illicit network system. The Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación’s (CJNG) alliance structure is top-down and hierarchical, while the Sinaloa Cartel is denser, particularly in the broader Tierra Caliente region. Additionally, our analysis found a sparse overall network with many isolates (organized criminal groups with no relations to other groups) and disconnected components. Further, we identified organized crime networks that might fill future power vacuums based on their network positions, following state or rival high-value targeting of major cartels. The implications of these findings are discussed, and policy recommendations are provided.
Subject Bibliography of Third Generation Gangs and Child Soldiers written for the FBI Academy Lib... more Subject Bibliography of Third Generation Gangs and Child Soldiers written for the FBI Academy Library.
Laser pointers, or counter-optical lasers, have been used against law enforcement officers and em... more Laser pointers, or counter-optical lasers, have been used against law enforcement officers and emergency responders during protests and incidents of civil unrest. Lasers pose a threat to responding personnel by disrupting or degrading human vision. Lasers can interrupt a tactical response by startling, distracting, or causing a diversion and can also disable surveillance cameras, inhibit facial recognition systems, and interfere with drone operations (Unmanned Aerial Systems).
On Easter Sunday, 21 April 2019, the Islamic State (IS) ravaged Sri Lanka with multiple, coordina... more On Easter Sunday, 21 April 2019, the Islamic State (IS) ravaged Sri Lanka with multiple, coordinated attacks targeting churches and three international hotels killing at least 290 people and injuring hundreds. The death toll included at least 45 foreign nationals, three police officers, and eight suicide bombers. The anatomy of this deadly sequence is the focus of Professor Rohan Gunaratna's text "Sri Lanka's Easter Sunday Massacre."
Review of Chris Dalby's "CJNG: A Quick Guide to Mexico's Deadliest Cartel" by SWJ−El Centro Senio... more Review of Chris Dalby's "CJNG: A Quick Guide to Mexico's Deadliest Cartel" by SWJ−El Centro Senior Fellow John P. Sullivan.
International Journal of Police Science (IJPS), 2024
Book review of "The Police in War: Fighting Insurgency, Terrorism, and Violent Crime," the classi... more Book review of "The Police in War: Fighting Insurgency, Terrorism, and Violent Crime," the classic text by David H. Bayley and Robert M. Perito.
Book Review of The Insurgent's Dilemma: A Struggle to Prevail" by David H. Ucko. [I]nsurgency has... more Book Review of The Insurgent's Dilemma: A Struggle to Prevail" by David H. Ucko. [I]nsurgency has evolved and remains a salient challenge. As always, counterinsurgency demands a whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach, with perceived legitimacy critical to a successful outcome. This text contributes to the understanding of contemporary terrorism and would form an essential component of any curriculum for understanding both insurgency and counterinsurgency.
Book Review of "Understanding Urban Warfare:" by Liam Collins and John Spencer. Urban warfare is ... more Book Review of "Understanding Urban Warfare:" by Liam Collins and John Spencer. Urban warfare is a present and future concern for militaries worldwide. Traditional approaches to warfare seek to avoid urban operations due to the difficulties they present. This avoidance is often reinforced by referencing Sun Tzu's dictum to avoid urban engagements as stated in chapter 3, "Attack by Stratagem," in The Art of War, "The rule is, not to besiege walled cities if it can possibly be avoided." The complexities of urban operations reinforce this view. These challenges include urban density. Density, as described by Russell W. Glenn in Heavy Matter (RAND, 2000), includes several interactive densities: density of population, structures, potential firing positions, command and control systems, friendly and enemy forces, line of sight issues, and compression of decision times. Notwithstanding these challenges, cities have historically been the scenes of decisive battles and, as this text argues, will likely continue to be in the future.
Book Review of Caryn Dolley's "Clash of the Cartels." Illicit economic flows are the engine that ... more Book Review of Caryn Dolley's "Clash of the Cartels." Illicit economic flows are the engine that fuels transnational organized crime. These illicit flows mix with gangs, cartels, mafias, corrupt government officials, espionage, and intrigue in many corners of the world. Some of the actors that benefit from transnational crime are well known, others are obscure and occult. All interact in the various spaces and flows of the illicit political economy. South Africa is a pivotal-albeit largely unknown-hub in the global criminal landscape.
International Journal of Police Science (IJPS), 2023
Book Review: "Police and International Peacekeeping Missions: Securing Peace and Post-Conflict Ru... more Book Review: "Police and International Peacekeeping Missions: Securing Peace and Post-Conflict Rule of Law," ed. Garth den Heyer and James F. Albrecht (Cham, Switzerland: Springer, 2021), 297 pages, ISBN 978-3-030-77899-6 (hardcover), ISBN 978-3-030-77900-9 (eBook), https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-77900-9.
Book review of "Enemies Near and Far: How Jihadist Groups Strategize, Plot, and Learn" by Daveed ... more Book review of "Enemies Near and Far: How Jihadist Groups Strategize, Plot, and Learn" by Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Thomas Joscelyn. Terrorists evolve and adapt to achieve their goals. This adaptation includes embracing new tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs), as well as setting strategic goals and objectives. Over time this involves calibrating ways and means toward achieving organization and ideological aims, responding to competing groups, and overcoming the counterterrorism efforts of state security services.
Book review of "We Are Bellingcat: Global Crime, Online Sleuths, and the Bold Future of News" by ... more Book review of "We Are Bellingcat: Global Crime, Online Sleuths, and the Bold Future of News" by Elliot Higgins, New York: Bloomsbury Publishing, 2021. ISBN 1635577306
International Journal of Police Science (IJPS), Jul 2022
Review of C. Christine Fair and Sumit Ganguily, Editors, "Policing Insurgencies: Cops as Counteri... more Review of C. Christine Fair and Sumit Ganguily, Editors, "Policing Insurgencies: Cops as Counterinsurgents" (Oxford, 2014)
Insurgencies challenge governments in a myriad of ways. These challenges include restoring order, controlling violence, and restoring state legitimacy. One of these challenges is framing an appropriate framework for counterinsurgency (COIN), after all COIN is complicated, presenting a range of operational, political, legal, and cultural issues. While COIN is typically viewed—and addressed—through a military lens, the police are often employed to contain and suppress insurgencies. Despite this historical reality, the understanding of the police role in quelling insurgencies is limited. There is a paucity of attention to the role and practice of the police in COIN and a relative lacuna in tbe literature addressing the appropriate role and effective deployment of police in COIN operations. "Policing Insurgencies: Cops as Counterinsurgents" seeks to fill this gap in knowledge.
Book Review of "Policing in France. Edited by Jacques de Maillard and Wesley G. Skogan. New York ... more Book Review of "Policing in France. Edited by Jacques de Maillard and Wesley G. Skogan. New York and London: Routledge, 2021.
Review Essay of "On Contested Shores: The Evolving Role of Amphibious Operations in the History o... more Review Essay of "On Contested Shores: The Evolving Role of Amphibious Operations in the History of Warfare. Edited by Timothy Heck and B.A. Friedman. Quantico, VA: Marine Corps University Press, 2020."
Book review of Thomas C. Bruneau and Aurel Croissant, Editors, "Civil-Military Relations: Control... more Book review of Thomas C. Bruneau and Aurel Croissant, Editors, "Civil-Military Relations: Control and Effectiveness across Regimes." Civil-military relations refers to the relationships between the military and the state it serves and protects. In democratic societies, this field of study involves all facets of this interaction including the relationships between elected officials and security institutions such as the armed forces, law enforcement agencies, and intelligence services. This profession essentially defines and employs the mechanisms of state control over the military to ensure the state’s interests are served. Generally, these relationships involve applying civilian control over the military. In democratic states, elected officials control the military. But hybrid and authoritarian states can—and often effectively do—exert civilian control over their armed forces.
Review of Mary Kaldor and Saskia Sassen, Eds. "Cities at War: Global Insecurity and Urban Resista... more Review of Mary Kaldor and Saskia Sassen, Eds. "Cities at War: Global Insecurity and Urban Resistance." Urban warfare is a constant feature in current and future conflict. Ranging from civil strife and chronic insecurity to terrorist attacks, sectarian violence, and components of broader campaigns, urban war spans both international and noninternational armed conflicts and criminal armed violence. Most texts look at urban warfare challenges from the view of the combatant warfighter; others look at the tactical challenges, including those involved with protecting the populace. This edited collection, however, looks at urban insecurity from the perspective of the civilians inhabiting the cities at war.
Review and analysis COVID-19, Gangs, and Conflict, 2021
• Review and analysis of the book coordinates by John P. Sullivan and Robert J. Bunker,. Questo l... more • Review and analysis of the book coordinates by John P. Sullivan and Robert J. Bunker,. Questo libro è il prodotto finale di Small Wars Journal e El Centro Reader, con il contributo di un nutrito gruppo di validi studiosi e specialisti in materia di gruppi criminali, mafie, cartelli narcos, ordine pubblico e sicurezza. I due curatori del testo fanno parte del Small Wars Journal che si occupa di conflitti, controinsorgenza, peacekeeping , peace-enforcing, mafie, gangs, cartelli narcos. Per tutto quello che riguarda l'America-Latina, è stato fondato El Centro specializzato sulle small wars in questa regione. Il lavoro COVID-19, Gangs, and Conflict è articolato in tre macro-sezioni: nella prima sezione, le Strategic Notes, si analizza come hanno agito le organizzazioni criminali nel corso di questa pandemia, in particolare quanto è avvenuto, e sta avvenendo, in sei paesi quali: Brasile, El Salvador, Messico, Sudafrica, Colombia e Italia. Differenti latitudini, culture differenti, regimi democratici diversi, laddove tuttavia risulta evidente una forte 'uniformità' di comportamento delle mafie e delle gangs, le vediamo
Killing civilians in war is a lightning rod for controversy. Ethical, moral, and practical conce... more Killing civilians in war is a lightning rod for controversy. Ethical, moral, and practical concerns frame the discussion—and more importantly the reality on the ground. International law is clear, under International Humanitarian Law (IHL), the deliberate killing of civilians and other persons hors de combat is prohibited—that is it is a war crime. Despite these norms, deliberate and indiscriminate killing of civilians persists. This SWJ Book Review looks at Jürgen Brandsch's assessment of the topic in "Killing Civilians in Civil War: The Rationale of Indiscriminate Violence."
Review of P.W. Singer and August Cole's "Burn-In: A Novel of the Real Robotic Revolution. Rapid ... more Review of P.W. Singer and August Cole's "Burn-In: A Novel of the Real Robotic Revolution. Rapid technological change presents profound challenges to all sectors of society.
Technology is a disruptive force that can be harnessed for non-zero progress or
used as a driver of fear and oppression. These potentials are the topic of P.W. Singer
and August Cole’s exploration of rapidly emerging Artificial Intelligence (AI).
Robotics, drones—such as unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and semi-autonomous
vehicles—and near ubiquitous surveillance (images, facial recognition, and a range
of sensors)—are also examined. Exploitation of big data culminating in a
fragile, extractive, just-in-time society ties these together.
Nonstate conflict dominates contemporary discourse on war and peace yet a comprehensive framework... more Nonstate conflict dominates contemporary discourse on war and peace yet a comprehensive framework for understanding the dynamics of insurgencies, revolutions, and national movements—collectively known as rebels. Some rebellions succeed and others fail. Many factions, competing groups, and challengers seek to dominate rebel movements. In Rebel Power, Peter Krause, an assistant professor of political science at Boston College and a research affiliate in the MIT Security Studies program looks at the factors that determine who wins and loses in one form of rebellion: national movements.
"Unmasking Maskirovka: Russia’s Cyber Influence Operations" examines Russian ‘Information Operati... more "Unmasking Maskirovka: Russia’s Cyber Influence Operations" examines Russian ‘Information Operations’ (InfoOps) as a tool of strategic influence. This exploration is timely and relevant given the Russian assault on the American electoral process in the 2016 Presidential election—especially since the long-range implications are still being assessed.
Review of Daphné Richemond-Barak's "Underground Warfare." Richemond-Barak’s stated objective is f... more Review of Daphné Richemond-Barak's "Underground Warfare." Richemond-Barak’s stated objective is filling the gaps in knowledge surrounding fighting in tunnels and subterranean spaces. In this she succeeds masterfully. The underground is a challenging terrain (or sets of terrain). Like urban battle (or operational) space, subterranean spaces provide ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) challenges, as well as operational and potential performance decrements that favor the force that controls that space. This means the underground can be a place of refuge or a secret pathway to an attack. It can even be a mode of attack or weapon itself, as well as a combination of all of the facets.
This essay by two SWJ−El Centro scholars looks at the complexities of US-Mexico relations and the... more This essay by two SWJ−El Centro scholars looks at the complexities of US-Mexico relations and the need for cooperation based upon mutual respect to address transnational organized crime.
Drones are increasingly recognized as a feature of the contemporary operational environment. Inde... more Drones are increasingly recognized as a feature of the contemporary operational environment. Indeed, drones—of all types: aerial, waterborne (maritime), and ground (surface and subsurface) are increasingly present in military operations demonstrating their potential future influence in criminal and terrorist activities. Indeed, drones, including consumer or commercial off-the-shelf, aerial drones (unmanned aerial systems or UAS) have become a significant presence in the Ukraine War, with drones of all types currently active in the Gaza conflict. This brief report summarizes the findings of recent research on drone threats at ports. Specifically, this article discusses a threat assessment of the Port of Brownsville
Over the course of the last year, a working group organized through the Baker Institute Center fo... more Over the course of the last year, a working group organized through the Baker Institute Center for the U.S. and Mexico has collaborated to write several papers analyzing the alliance structure of Mexican organized crime. In this commentary, we summarize two papers published by the Baker Institute highlighting key findings and takeaways.
The use of anti-vehicle land mines by criminal cartels is now part of Mexico’s violent criminal l... more The use of anti-vehicle land mines by criminal cartels is now part of Mexico’s violent criminal landscape. This phase of improvised explosive devices represents an escalation of improvised explosive device (IED) use against state forces and criminal rivals. Essentially, improvised land (anti-vehicle) mines are being deployed for defensive purposes. That is, they are used to protect small urban enclaves under cartel control from Mexican Federal forces (police and military) and rival cartels or autodefensas (self-defense forces). The Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) is at the center of these defensive measures used to blunt offensive actions by their rivals.
Chinese overseas police stations known as ‘police service centers’ are a controversial component ... more Chinese overseas police stations known as ‘police service centers’ are a controversial component of China’s hybrid influence strategy. These Chinese overseas police outposts form a global policing network known as ‘Overseas 110’ extending China’s influence through diaspora communities. These extraterritorial outposts underscore fears of Chinese Communist party (CCP) repression of Chinese dissidents abroad.
Recent news reports about ‘secret’ overseas Chinese police stations highlight the growing role of... more Recent news reports about ‘secret’ overseas Chinese police stations highlight the growing role of police in national security strategy. According to these reports, China has established a networks of informal, quasi-police stations in Europe and the Americas. In part these outposts serve as mechanisms for extending the reach of China’s ‘secret’ police. According to the reports, approximately 50 informal police outposts, ostensibly for liaison and outreach are now in operation.
Word on the Street (Urban Violence Research Network), Jul 14, 2022
Criminal Armed Groups (CAGs) in Brazil are engaged in violent competition with each other and the... more Criminal Armed Groups (CAGs) in Brazil are engaged in violent competition with each other and the state. For Brazil, these conflicts not only engender high levels of violence among all participants but lead to actual and perceived insecurity that challenges perceptions of state legitimacy. This 'credibility gap' creates a vacuum where criminal enterprises provide criminal governance in places instead of (and actually in addition to) the state at all levels. The result is a patchwork of 'stratified' sovereignty where the various actors-state and criminal-vie for competitive control. The groups in the quest for autonomy, power, and control include the state and its political and judicial organs-such as the police and at times the military (at federal, state, and municipal levels) and criminal factions (facções criminosas), territorial gangs (gangues), and militias (milícias) that seek to control Brazil's streets and favelas (slums) and prisons.
This proposed humanitarian return to Europe would use medical capacity to bolster humanitarian re... more This proposed humanitarian return to Europe would use medical capacity to bolster humanitarian relief to Ukrainian medical and health care operations.
Effectively assessing urban terrain is necessary to effective operations -- military, policing an... more Effectively assessing urban terrain is necessary to effective operations -- military, policing and humanitarian. This brief essay puts forward a typology of key urban terrain facets and features that can help military planners and other police and humanitarian counterparts to better understand and negotiate the complex dynamics of urban operations. This essay does not possess the weight of doctrine or replace existing IPB or CPOE practices, but it is hoped that it will inform the much-needed discussions to prepare both defenders and attackers for the urban operations of the future.
Climate change and the insecurity it stimulates have the potential to amplify existing conflicts,... more Climate change and the insecurity it stimulates have the potential to amplify existing conflicts, trigger conflicts over scarce resources, and trigger forced migration (refugees and internally displaced persons or IDPs) now and in the future. Climate conflicts converge with transnational criminal activity (cartels and gangs) and exacerbate violence against persons in fragile communities. These convergences have reduced the availability of areas that are safe for displaced persons, increased resource stresses (including deforestation and water stress), displaced additional populations, and made it harder for migrants to seek refuge in countries like the United States or nations in Europe (both the European Union and the United Kingdom). This paper looks at the potential for humanitarian intelligence to protect climate migrants.
The divide between foreign and domestic intelligence, while grounded in legitimate civil libertie... more The divide between foreign and domestic intelligence, while grounded in legitimate civil liberties concerns, can inhibit detection of transnational threats.
Aerial drones, once the domain of states alone, have become standard features of the arsenals oft... more Aerial drones, once the domain of states alone, have become standard features of the arsenals ofterrorists, insurgents, and guerrillas. These actors find the flexibility of aerial drones appealing. But they are not the only ones: As we discuss in our new book Criminal Drone Evolution, criminal and cartel uses of small weaponized drones are increasingly in the news. Cartel commandos are attacking rival gangs and security forces with armed drones, enhancing their combat power. We can clearly track their technological and tactical progress on this front. It is a part of the increased tactical and operational sophistication of criminal groups in Mexico's crime wars. This violent conflict goes well beyond typical criminal violence, including terrorist tactics, infantry operations, and barbarization in a quest for territorial control, power, and profit. At times,
This essay looks at the future of naval intelligence. It assesses the emerging threat environment... more This essay looks at the future of naval intelligence. It assesses the emerging threat environment and determines that future maritime services will face a range of full spectrum threats including insurgents, criminal armed groups (CAGs), and proxies. These threats may involve irregular conflicts, crime wars, and full-scale wars. New technology, drones and artificial intelligence and new operations areas--urban littorals--complicate the threat horizon. Ne partnerships and modes of intelligence production involving partnerships *(co-production) are needed to address these diverse operating challenges.
The COVID-19 pandemic is a global tragedy. In addition to causing an extreme level of sickness an... more The COVID-19 pandemic is a global tragedy. In addition to causing an extreme level of sickness and death, it has a broad destabilizing effect on the international economy and politics. Profound changes in how we live, exercise political rights, and interact with the illicit (criminal) economy are already underway. The COVID-19 pandemic has created opportunities and challenges for states (governments) and organized criminal groups (OCGs) worldwide, including criminal armed groups (CAGs) such as gangs, militias, and mafias. The future of state governance and political capacity in the pandemic’s disruptive path is challenged by inflamed political passions on all sides, leading to extremism, potential conflict, and the consolidation of criminal economic and political power.
The challenges to governance and states posed by gangs are increasingly recognized as a global co... more The challenges to governance and states posed by gangs are increasingly recognized as a global concern. No longer just local, turf-oriented groups of local youths, seeking protection and forging a common identity, gangs are involved in the drug trade and other illicit economic interests. These ‘third generation gangs’ protect their markets and align with a range of transnational criminal organizations. Some gain de facto political objectives, controlling terrain and providing alternative governance structures that compete with the state for territorial control. This situation and the resulting crime wars and criminal insurgencies are pervasive throughout Latin America. In previous assessments, I have examined gangs and cartels, crime wars and insecurity in Mexico and Brazil while identifying broader urban security concerns. This essay looks at gangs and urban insecurity in Cape Town, South Africa.
Adaptation and innovation is a core component of successful organization competition among states... more Adaptation and innovation is a core component of successful organization competition among states and their militaries, businesses and corporations-and as argued here, organized crime groups-especially transnational criminal organizations (TCOs). In order to gain supremacy organizations often introduce new technologies to foster this innovation, yet not all innovation is technological. Indeed, non-state actors are often incubators of novel practices and non-technological innovation to further their goals and often to survive. This brief assessment looks at non-technological innovation potentials among Mexican TCOs (criminal cartels and gangs).
BATMOBILES IN GOTHAM CITY: UNMANNED GROUND VEHICLES & MANOEUVRE IN THE FUTURE URBAN ENVIRONMENT, Nov 15, 2019
Urban conflict is on the rise. Ranging from the prospects for conventional warfare in megacities ... more Urban conflict is on the rise. Ranging from the prospects for conventional warfare in megacities and mega-city regions to urban riots and disorder, as currently seen in Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protests or France’s Gilets Jaunes movement to gang violence and criminal insurgencies in global cities and global slums, these conflicts are a global potential. They pose extreme risk to civilians, and challenge military, police, intelligence services, and humanitarian operators alike.
Analysis Highlights:
• Gang violence reinforces insecurity and opens the way for the rise of ... more Analysis Highlights:
• Gang violence reinforces insecurity and opens the way for the rise of criminal enclaves. • First Capital Command has spread into nearby countries and is working on overseas connections.
• Aid workers must recognize that the implicit or explicit approval of gangs is needed for their operations to proceed.
Editor's Note: This is the second part of a two-part series on gang crime in Brazil.
Analysis Highlights
• Brazil's largest and most violent gang, First Capital Command, rules the cr... more Analysis Highlights • Brazil's largest and most violent gang, First Capital Command, rules the criminal landscape in São Paulo, Brazil's most populous city. • The Red Command is its main rival, and it dominates the slums of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil's second largest city. • In January, several gangs joined with their rivals to attack police, banks and infrastructure in 46 municipalities in the state of Ceará.
Editor's Note: This is the first part of a two-part series on gang crime in Brazil.
On Sunday, 21 July 2024, Milton Morales Figueroa, general coordinator for the tactical strategyan... more On Sunday, 21 July 2024, Milton Morales Figueroa, general coordinator for the tactical strategyand special operations unit of the Secretaría de Seguridad Ciudadana la Ciudad de México (Secretary of Citizen Security of Mexico City) (SSC-CDMX), was assassinated in themunicipality of Coacalco, Estado de México (Edomex). Morales Figueroa was a key intelligence official in the fight against organized crime.
On Thursday, 25 July 2024, American law enforcement officials arrested Ismael, ‘El Mayo,’ Zambada... more On Thursday, 25 July 2024, American law enforcement officials arrested Ismael, ‘El Mayo,’ Zambada García and Joaquín Guzmán López in El Paso, Texas. The two men are prominent leaders of the Sinaloa Cartel and were detained in a private airfield. Both suspects, and their criminal cartel are allegedly linked to drug trafficking—especially trade in fentanyl and methamphetamine.
On Monday, 22 April 2024 two paramedics in Celaya, Guanajuato were killed when alleged members of... more On Monday, 22 April 2024 two paramedics in Celaya, Guanajuato were killed when alleged members of a criminal armed group (CAG) attacked ambulances believed to be linked to their rivals. This attack included armed assault and arson. It occurred during a spike in violence between rival criminal cartels. The violent surge also included fatal attacks on police.
There are indications of the presence of the third generation gang “El Tren de Aragua” (Aragua Tr... more There are indications of the presence of the third generation gang “El Tren de Aragua” (Aragua Train) in Chile since at least January 2022. Their presence has coincided with a rise in kidnappings, homicides with unknown perpetrators and an explosive increase in irregular migration in the north of the country, mainly of Venezuelan origin. Measures adopted to combat these different aspects have included the deployment of military personnel on the northern border from the beginning of 2023, within the framework of Chile’s law critical infrastructure protection.
Brazil’s Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) is expanding its reach into Chile. The group, also kno... more Brazil’s Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) is expanding its reach into Chile. The group, also known in English, as the First Capital Command is reportedly consolidating its expansion into Chile. This expansion is triggering intense political debate in Chile as the Chilean state seeks to come to terms with transnational organized crime’s impact on the local criminal ecosystem and challenges state capacity to address globalized gangs.
On Thursday 29 February 2024, engagements took place between Mexican Army (SEDENA) personnel and ... more On Thursday 29 February 2024, engagements took place between Mexican Army (SEDENA) personnel and Jalisco New Generation Cartel (Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación − CJNG) gunmen in the Aguililla, Michoacán region. These engagements included firefights and weaponized drone attacks on SEDENA forces and the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in an anti- personnel land mine role. During the sweep of a CJNG camp, a land mine was detonated which killed four soldiers and seriously wounded nine more. The use of land mines by CJNG has been an ongoing activity for some years now, however, these munitions are starting to proliferate to other cartels with another incident taking place just last month in Zipoco, Jalisco.[1]
The global rise of drones has made vast changes to how countries wage war, spy on their enemies, ... more The global rise of drones has made vast changes to how countries wage war, spy on their enemies, and even deliver goods. Terrorist groups are also rapidly incorporating drone technology for intelligence, propaganda, and attack purposes. The impact of weaponized drone use has been felt in conflicts all over the world including the Russo-Ukraine war, conflicts in the Middle East, and now it has begun to enter Africa. There have been more struggles between governments and violent nonstate actors in Africa than anywhere in the world, and now that drones are actively being used by radical Islamist terrorist organizations in the continent, it is important to analyze how they have utilized drones since 2018 and how that usage may change via an indications and warning (I&W) perspective.
In a recent engagement on Sunday 19 November 2023 between the Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación ... more In a recent engagement on Sunday 19 November 2023 between the Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) and the Mexican Army (SEDENA) in Teocaltiche, Jalisco, a CJNG improvised armored fighting vehicle (IAFV) was recovered with an anti-drone 'cope cage' welded over the front cab and hood of the vehicle. This is the first known incident in which a 'cope cage' has been seen fitted onto a Mexican cartel IAFV. This defensive measure is intended to protect a fighting vehicle from top-down attack by providing standoff protection by means of missile and bomblet pre-detonation. Given that the Mexican Army does not field weaponized drones with aerial bombardment capability (or, for that matter, IED point detonation), this represents a defensive TTP being used as a counter to opposing Mexican cartel drone combat capabilities which are proliferating.
On 7-8 November 2023, two Brazilian nationals linked to Hezbollah were sequentially arrested in S... more On 7-8 November 2023, two Brazilian nationals linked to Hezbollah were sequentially arrested in São Paulo over the course of two days in Operação Trapiche (Operation Wherehouse). The individuals were arrested pre-emptively during the planning stage prior to engaging in attacks against Jewish and Israeli governmental targets—such as synagogues and the Israeli Embassy— in Brazil. A third individual was later arrested as the operation expanded in scope. Precedent exists for Hezbollah-linked (and directed) attacks taking place in Brazil against Jewish and Israeli interests back in the early-to-mid 1990s. This new round of terrorism in Brazil was prompted by the 7 Ocotber 2023 HAMAS massacre and kidnapping of Israeli citizens launched from Gaza and the subsequent Israel Defense Forces (IDF) response. Hezbollah is in a close knit alliance with HAMAS with this incident extending the conflict into Latin America.
A milícia (militia) in the Western Zone of Rio de Janeiro, known as the Bonde de Zinho (Zinho's B... more A milícia (militia) in the Western Zone of Rio de Janeiro, known as the Bonde de Zinho (Zinho's Band), conducted arson attacks against ~35 buses, four trucks, and one rapid transit train on Monday, 23 October 2023. The series of attacks were in retaliation for the killing of a senior militia leader Matheus da Silva Rezende, also known as the 'Senhor de Guerra' (Lord of War).
C/O Futures Cartel Research Note Series, Oct 15, 2023
Multiple Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) improvised armored fighting vehicles (IAFVs) h... more Multiple Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) improvised armored fighting vehicles (IAFVs) have been reported to now be outfitted with M134 miniguns as their main armament. The confirmation of the existence of one of these miniguns took place in August 2023 during a meeting engagement between a CJNG convoy and SEDENA forces in Jalisco state. These weapons serve to further strengthen the security rings around the CJNG leader “El Mencho” and bolster the firepower of CJNG IAFV based operational forces. The inclusion of the M134s in cartel arsenals further portray the ongoing main armament evolution of narco IAFVs and their growing importance in the criminal insurgencies taking place in Mexico.
C/O Futures Cartel Research Note Series, Jul 6, 2023
On Wednesday, 28 June 2023, between 2300 and 2400 hours, a car bomb exploded, injuring at least t... more On Wednesday, 28 June 2023, between 2300 and 2400 hours, a car bomb exploded, injuring at least ten Guardia Nacional (GN – National Guard) agents in Celaya, Guanajuato (Gto.). One GN agent subsequently died as a result of the injuries sustained. It appears that the GN agents were specifically targeted in the attack. The region is contested by the Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) and the beleaguered Cártel de Santa Rosa de Lima (CSRL). Improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and anti-personnel car bombs (AP-VBIEDs) have been a staple of this ongoing criminal competition for a number of years. While past IED use patterns are still holding, the recent shift in the conflict centered in Guanajuato with new belligerents appearing in support of CSRL suggests new forms of IED employment may begin to emerge.
C/O Futures Cartel Research Note Series, Jul 8, 2023
Eight Mexican Army (SEDENA) soldiers were injured when their tactical pickup truck drove through ... more Eight Mexican Army (SEDENA) soldiers were injured when their tactical pickup truck drove through a minefield (campo minado) setting off an improvised anti-vehicle mine (IAVM). Four of the soldiers were seriously injured. This incident occurred on 18 June 2023 on a dirt road near Apatzingán, Michoacán. The area has been contested by a number of organized criminal entities including the Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG), Carteles Unidos (CU), Los Viagras, La Familia Michoacana (LFM) and Los Caballeros Templarios (Knights Templar). The CJNG, which has used artisanal mines in the past, is the main suspect in this incident.
A prison riot broke out in the Women’s Prison (Centro Femenino de Adaptación Social, Támara), in ... more A prison riot broke out in the Women’s Prison (Centro Femenino de Adaptación Social, Támara), in Támara, Honduras on 20 June 2023. The riot, which ultimately resulted in a massacre of at least 41 inmates, started as a brawl between members of the rival Pandilla 18 (Eighteenth Street) and Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) gangs. The part of the prison where the riot occurred burned down and was fully destroyed. An additional five persons subsequently succumbed to their wounds. In the aftermath of the incident, which has caused a national governmental crisis, the Honduran military assumed control of prisons throughout Honduras.
On 22 April 2023, a Sinaloa Cartel (Cártel de Sinaloa; CDS) ambush used a weaponized drone attack... more On 22 April 2023, a Sinaloa Cartel (Cártel de Sinaloa; CDS) ambush used a weaponized drone attack (aerial bombardment) in Teocaltiche, Jalisco on Calle Juárez (Juárez Street) next to the intersection with Pensador Mexicano. A mobile element belonging to the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación; CJNG) was targeted, resulting in their vehicle being set on fire and their personnel needing to engage in escape and evasion (E&E) tactics. This is the first documented incident in which the Sinaloa Cartel has overtly utilized weaponized drones and can be considered another firebreak crossed concerning weaponized drone use proliferation amongst the Mexican cartels.
Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) has been at the forefront of Mexican cartel drone usage si... more Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) has been at the forefront of Mexican cartel drone usage since at least late 2017 with an ever-increasing use of these systems for ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance), propaganda, and IED (improvised explosive device) attack purposes. Recent imagery from April 2023 suggests that CJNG has now institutionalized drone usage in a specialized "Drone Operators" (Operadores Droneros) unit shown via a unit patch worn on their 'cartel uniform' (e.g. body armor battle kit). This unit patch may have appeared as early as November 2021 in CJNG related videos but had not been previously identified due to the low quality of the imagery resolution.
Supporting Hearing Entitled: Follow the Money: The CCP’s Business Model Fueling the Fentanyl Crisis, 2023
Finances and International Financial Institutions. The Fentanyl Crisis presents a multifaceted pr... more Finances and International Financial Institutions. The Fentanyl Crisis presents a multifaceted problem to the United States, including threats to public health, community stability, and national security. Fentanyl is a synthetic opioid that can be obtained through legal sources or produced illicitly by criminal enterprises. In 2021, over 106,000 people in the US died from drug overdose, with fentanyl and similar synthetic opioids the most prevalent cause of death.
The Ministério Público do Rio Grande do Norte (MPRN)—public prosecutor’s office in the state of R... more The Ministério Público do Rio Grande do Norte (MPRN)—public prosecutor’s office in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil—launched Operação Plata (Operation Plata) on Tuesday, 14 February 2023 to investigate money laundering related to drug trafficking by a suspected leader of the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC). The cell investigated laundered money through multiple means. Most notably, their laundering efforts including establishing evangelical churches as front operations.
On Thursday, 5 January 2023, Mexican security forces arrested Ovidio Guzmán López, a key member o... more On Thursday, 5 January 2023, Mexican security forces arrested Ovidio Guzmán López, a key member of the Los Chapitos faction of the Cártel del Pacífico, commonly known as the Cártel de Sinaloa (Sinaloa Cartel or CDS), in the Jesús María district of Culiacán, Sinaloa. He is also known by the moniker "El Raton" (The Mouse) and has a heavily armed bodyguard unit protecting him called Las Fuerzas Especiales Ratón (Mouse's Special Forces). Guzmán's arrest triggered a cartel counterattack and widespread violence throughout Culiacán and throughout parts of Sinaloa and neighboring Sonora where the cartel has a presence. Guzmán was transported to Altiplano prison (Centro Federal de Readaptación Social Número 1) in Mexico City pending prosecution.
The Guardia Nacional (National Guard; GN), in cooperation with the Ejército Mexicano (Mexican Arm... more The Guardia Nacional (National Guard; GN), in cooperation with the Ejército Mexicano (Mexican Army), seized over ninety drone bomblets belonging to an organized criminal group in the municipality of Buenavista Tomatlán, Michoacán. The location of the munitions cache, supported by forensic analysis conducted by C/O Futures, suggests that the bomblets belonged to the Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) and were meant for weaponized drone use. CJNG has been involved in the deployment of weaponized drones since at least October 2017 when an improvised explosive drone ('dron bomba') was first recovered in Valtierrilla, Guanajuato.[1]
My thoughts on contemporary security issues are included here: From terrorism to natural disaste... more My thoughts on contemporary security issues are included here: From terrorism to natural disasters and beyond, Homeland Security Today writers and editorial board members reflect on the road ahead. The threat landscape has expanded and evolved across cyberspace, critical infrastructure, biological threats, and more as a dedicated team of security professionals across various agencies and disciplines confronts new threat actors, worsening natural disasters, immigration challenges, global instability, threats to election security, drug and human trafficking, and more. As we move further into 2023, Homeland Security Today asked our editorial leaders and experts to share their thoughts on security challenges in the year ahead.
Interview of John P. Sullivan by Daniel Pereira on cyber security at the Ports of Los Angeles and... more Interview of John P. Sullivan by Daniel Pereira on cyber security at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach
This 263rd edition includes the latest news from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Ukrainian r... more This 263rd edition includes the latest news from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Ukrainian resistance is exceptional: creative, determined, defiant and successful against a less than well prepared attacker. Yet the Russian military control Chernobyl and Zaporizhzhia, Europe's largest nuclear powered electric utility, a massive threat. We are extremely fortunate to feature Dr. John P. Sullivan, Safe Communities Institute, University of Southern California who answers my question on Insurgency and the Nuclear Threat.
My thoughts on contemporary security issues are included here: On March 1, 2003, the Department o... more My thoughts on contemporary security issues are included here: On March 1, 2003, the Department of Homeland Security took its charge to protect the American people. In the years since, the threat landscape has expanded and evolved across cyberspace, critical infrastructure, biological threats, and more as a dedicated team of security professionals across various agencies and disciplines confronts new threat actors, worsening natural disasters, immigration challenges, global instability, threats to election security, drug and human trafficking, and more. Homeland Security Today asked our leaders and experts-many veterans of the department-to share their thoughts on security challenges in the year ahead.
As violence has continued to rise in Mexico year after year, criminal groups have adopted an incr... more As violence has continued to rise in Mexico year after year, criminal groups have adopted an increasingly militarized approach to their tactics, weaponry and training.
InSight Crime sat down with Robert J. Bunker and John P. Sullivan, founders of Small Wars Journal-El Centro and editors of a new book, "Illicit Tactical Progress: Mexican Cartel Tactical Notes 2013-2020," which dives deep into how this evolution has taken place.
A medida que la violencia aumenta en México año tras año, los grupos criminales han adoptado un e... more A medida que la violencia aumenta en México año tras año, los grupos criminales han adoptado un enfoque cada vez más militarizado en sus tácticas, armamento y entrenamiento.
InSight Crime habló con Robert J. Bunker y John P. Sullivan, fundadores de Small Wars Journal-El Centro y editores de un libro publicado recientemente, titulado "Illicit Tactical Progress: Mexican Cartel Tactical Notes 2013-2020" [“Avances en tácticas ilícitas: notas tácticas de los carteles mexicanos 2013-2020”], que analiza cómo se ha producido esta evolución.
This is the second of our Danger Room Debriefs, where we ask some of the smartest folks in the mi... more This is the second of our Danger Room Debriefs, where we ask some of the smartest folks in the military, intelligence, and homeland defense fields to outline under-the-radar security issues, and point the way towards potential, often-unorthodox solutions. Today we hear from John P. Sullivan, the co-founder of the Los Angeles Terrorism Early Warning group. […]
This 'Whiteboard' consultation at the US Army War College 'War Room' co-ordinated by Dr. Geneviev... more This 'Whiteboard' consultation at the US Army War College 'War Room' co-ordinated by Dr. Genevieve Lester looks at the future of domestic intelligence and homeland security in the United States. Comments by John P. Sullivan appear in section 4.
Forza alla lergge. Studi storici su Carabinieri, gendarmerie e polizie armate, 2023
Studies on Carabinieri, Gendarmeries and other Armed Policies, edited by Flavio Carbone, coordina... more Studies on Carabinieri, Gendarmeries and other Armed Policies, edited by Flavio Carbone, coordinator of the SISM Research Group on History of Armed Policing
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This important anthology of writings by Robert J. Bunker and John P. Sullivan draws upon a collection of their works from the mid-1990s to the present with the addition of new essays written specifically for this publication. The work will be of great interest to academics and students in the fields of political science and criminal justice and to military, law enforcement, and governmental professionals and policy makers.
This book is a collection of new and previously published works from a variety of publications, a full list of which is on the Citation Information page. Appendices are available on line at Claremont Scholarship: http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgu_facbooks/13/
The Los Angeles TEW developed network approaches to network threats. It also sought to anticipate novel and emerging threats—i.e., develop early warning. As a result, the TEW developed an overarching mission statement for the Los Angeles TEW and the broader TEW network: "To develop operational intelligence for [our] area of operations, and contribute to the co-production of intelligence across the TEW and intelligence fusion community in order to prevent, counter and respond to terrorism and emerging threats by conducting indications and warning and operational net assessment." The evolution and maturation of TEW processes are documented in this work.
Specifically covering bioterrorism, emerging infectious diseases, pandemic disease preparedness and remediation, agroterroism, food safety, and environmental issues, the contributors demonstrate that to counter terrorism of any kind, a global, networked, and multidisciplinary approach is essential. To be successful in biosecurity, this book argues it is necessary to extend partnerships, cooperation, and co-ordination between public health, clinical medicine, private business, law enforcement and other agencies locally, nationally and internationally. Internationally, a clear understanding is needed of what has happened in past epidemics and what was accomplished in past bioprograms (in Britain, South Africa, Russia, for example). This book also assesses how, with the right technology and motivation, both a state and a non-state actor could initiate an extremely credible biothreat to security at both local and national levels.
The contributors examine the various attempts that have been made to counter the latest wave of terrorism, including the US strikes against Afghanistan and Iraq, President George W. Bush's declaration of a ‘war against terrorism’, the creation of the US Department of Homeland Security, and the 9/11 Commission. Drawing from our experience with ‘Terrorism Early Warning’ and the co-production of counter-terrorism intelligence, this book explains the need for such a network and shows how it could be formed. It compiles the opinions of experts from clinical medicine, public policy, law enforcement and the military. These expert contributors identify the nature of a global counter-terrorism network, show how it could be created, and provide clear guidelines for gauging its future effectiveness.
This book will be of great interest to all students of terrorism studies, US national security, international relations, and political science in general.
This important anthology of writings by Robert J. Bunker and John P. Sullivan draws upon a collection of their works from the mid-1990s to the present with the addition of new essays written specifically for this publication. The work will be of great interest to academics and students in the fields of political science and criminal justice and to military, law enforcement, and governmental professionals and policy makers.
This book is a collection of new and previously published works from a variety of publications, a full list of which is on the Citation Information page. Appendices are available on line at Claremont Scholarship: http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgu_facbooks/13/
The Los Angeles TEW developed network approaches to network threats. It also sought to anticipate novel and emerging threats—i.e., develop early warning. As a result, the TEW developed an overarching mission statement for the Los Angeles TEW and the broader TEW network: "To develop operational intelligence for [our] area of operations, and contribute to the co-production of intelligence across the TEW and intelligence fusion community in order to prevent, counter and respond to terrorism and emerging threats by conducting indications and warning and operational net assessment." The evolution and maturation of TEW processes are documented in this work.
Specifically covering bioterrorism, emerging infectious diseases, pandemic disease preparedness and remediation, agroterroism, food safety, and environmental issues, the contributors demonstrate that to counter terrorism of any kind, a global, networked, and multidisciplinary approach is essential. To be successful in biosecurity, this book argues it is necessary to extend partnerships, cooperation, and co-ordination between public health, clinical medicine, private business, law enforcement and other agencies locally, nationally and internationally. Internationally, a clear understanding is needed of what has happened in past epidemics and what was accomplished in past bioprograms (in Britain, South Africa, Russia, for example). This book also assesses how, with the right technology and motivation, both a state and a non-state actor could initiate an extremely credible biothreat to security at both local and national levels.
The contributors examine the various attempts that have been made to counter the latest wave of terrorism, including the US strikes against Afghanistan and Iraq, President George W. Bush's declaration of a ‘war against terrorism’, the creation of the US Department of Homeland Security, and the 9/11 Commission. Drawing from our experience with ‘Terrorism Early Warning’ and the co-production of counter-terrorism intelligence, this book explains the need for such a network and shows how it could be formed. It compiles the opinions of experts from clinical medicine, public policy, law enforcement and the military. These expert contributors identify the nature of a global counter-terrorism network, show how it could be created, and provide clear guidelines for gauging its future effectiveness.
This book will be of great interest to all students of terrorism studies, US national security, international relations, and political science in general.
Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIEDS) by the Mexican cartels has gone through two historical phases with a more recent third phase beginning in August 2016. That phase, taking place between the Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) and the Cártel de Santa Rosa Lima (CSRL) in Guanajuato state and limited surrounding areas, has since fully ebbed with the implosion of the CSRL since the arrest of its leader José Antonio Yépez Ortiz (aka “El Marro”) in late 2020. What can now be considered a new fourth phase of cartel IED utilization (devoid of VBIEDs – or at least anti-personnel bombs placed in cars) has now begun since January 2021 and is presently ongoing.
Insurgencies challenge governments in a myriad of ways. These challenges include restoring order, controlling violence, and restoring state legitimacy. One of these challenges is framing an appropriate framework for counterinsurgency (COIN), after all COIN is complicated, presenting a range of operational, political, legal, and cultural issues. While COIN is typically viewed—and addressed—through a military lens, the police are often employed to contain and suppress insurgencies. Despite this historical reality, the understanding of the police role in quelling insurgencies is limited. There is a paucity of attention to the role and practice of the police in COIN and a relative lacuna in tbe literature addressing the appropriate role and effective deployment of police in COIN operations. "Policing Insurgencies: Cops as Counterinsurgents" seeks to fill this gap in knowledge.
Technology is a disruptive force that can be harnessed for non-zero progress or
used as a driver of fear and oppression. These potentials are the topic of P.W. Singer
and August Cole’s exploration of rapidly emerging Artificial Intelligence (AI).
Robotics, drones—such as unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and semi-autonomous
vehicles—and near ubiquitous surveillance (images, facial recognition, and a range
of sensors)—are also examined. Exploitation of big data culminating in a
fragile, extractive, just-in-time society ties these together.
known as rebels. Some rebellions succeed and others fail. Many factions, competing groups, and challengers seek to dominate rebel movements. In Rebel Power, Peter Krause, an assistant professor of political science at Boston College and a research affiliate in the MIT Security Studies program looks at the factors that determine who wins and loses in one form of rebellion: national movements.
— Brazil's largest and most violent gang, First Capital Command, rules the criminal landscape in Sao Paulo, Brazil's most populous city.
— The Red Command is its main rival, and it dominates the slums of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil's second-largest city.
— Building a state response will require careful analysis and will need to start with intelligence-led policing.
• Gang violence reinforces insecurity and opens the way for the rise of criminal enclaves. • First Capital Command has spread into nearby countries and is working on overseas connections.
• Aid workers must recognize that the implicit or explicit approval of gangs is needed for their operations to proceed.
Editor's Note: This is the second part of a two-part series on gang crime in Brazil.
• Brazil's largest and most violent gang, First Capital Command, rules the criminal landscape in São Paulo, Brazil's most populous city.
• The Red Command is its main rival, and it dominates the slums of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil's second largest city.
• In January, several gangs joined with their rivals to attack police, banks and infrastructure in 46 municipalities in the state of Ceará.
Editor's Note: This is the first part of a two-part series on gang crime in Brazil.
InSight Crime sat down with Robert J. Bunker and John P. Sullivan, founders of Small Wars Journal-El Centro and editors of a new book, "Illicit Tactical Progress: Mexican Cartel Tactical Notes 2013-2020," which dives deep into how this evolution has taken place.
InSight Crime habló con Robert J. Bunker y John P. Sullivan, fundadores de Small Wars Journal-El Centro y editores de un libro publicado recientemente, titulado "Illicit Tactical Progress: Mexican Cartel Tactical Notes 2013-2020" [“Avances en tácticas ilícitas: notas tácticas de los carteles mexicanos 2013-2020”], que analiza cómo se ha producido esta
evolución.