In modelling farm systems it is widely accepted that risk plays a central role. Furthermore, farm... more In modelling farm systems it is widely accepted that risk plays a central role. Furthermore, farmers' risk aversion determines their decisions in both the short and the long run. This paper presents a methodology based on multiple criteria mathematical programming to obtain ...
There is an on-going debate on the environmental effects of genetically modified crops to which t... more There is an on-going debate on the environmental effects of genetically modified crops to which this paper aims to contribute. First, data on environmental impacts of genetically modified (GM) and conventional crops are collected from peer-reviewed journals, and secondly an analysis is conducted in order to examine which crop type is less harmful for the environment. Published data on environmental impacts are measured using an array of indicators, and their analysis requires their normalisation and aggregation. Taking advantage of composite indicators literature, this paper builds composite indicators to measure the impact of GM and conventional crops in three dimensions: (1) non-target key species richness, (2) pesticide use, and (3) aggregated environmental impact. The comparison between the three composite indicators for both crop types allows us to establish not only a ranking to elucidate which crop is more convenient for the environment but the probability that one crop type outperforms the other from an environmental perspective. Results show that GM crops tend to cause lower environmental impacts than conventional crops for the analysed indicators.
Law 46/1999 incorporated formal water markets into the Spanish legal and regulatory framework, al... more Law 46/1999 incorporated formal water markets into the Spanish legal and regulatory framework, allowing spot water markets and the creation of water banks. The implementation of water markets in Spain aimed at improving the efficiency of water use by reallocating water towards uses with higher added value. However, the performance of water markets in Spain has been rather disappointing, since they have been operative only during drought periods, and even under these extreme scarcity situations, trading activity counted for less than 5.0% of total water use. The narrowness of the market suggests that there are some barriers hampering their effective functioning. This paper examines the evolution and performance of water markets in Spain, relying on a transaction costs analysis framework. This analysis allows the identification of the main factors impeding water markets from operating effectively as a water reallocation tool. This analysis also provides some guidelines on how to overcome these obstacles and, thus, how to improve the efficiency of water use.
Andalusia, located in southern Spain, is the major olive production area worldwide. Due to the re... more Andalusia, located in southern Spain, is the major olive production area worldwide. Due to the relevance of this agricultural sector on the regional income, this article investigates olive farmer's perspectives regarding olive production after their retirement and potential factors affecting these including economic, social, environmental and spatial factors. We use data from a survey conducted to 431 olive farmers in Andalusia in 2010. Our findings show spatial dependence in explaining farmer's views on the future of olive farming at relatively small distances. In addition other factors such as bad economic performance, erosion or olive diseases affect farmer's perception. We make propositions on what elements should be taking into account when designing agricultural policies aiming at guaranteeing the sustainability of olive farming in future.
This paper presents a meta-analysis of the economic and agronomic performance of genetically modi... more This paper presents a meta-analysis of the economic and agronomic performance of genetically modified (GM) crops worldwide. Bayesian, classical and non-parametric approaches were used to evaluate the performance of GM crops v. their conventional counterparts. The two main GM crop traits (herbicide tolerant (HT) and insect resistant (Bt)) and three of the main GM crops produced worldwide (Bt cotton, HT soybean and Bt maize) were analysed in terms of yield, production cost and gross margin. The scope of the analysis covers developing and developed countries, six world regions, and all countries combined. Results from the statistical analyses indicate that GM crops perform better than their conventional counterparts in agronomic and economic (gross margin) terms. Regarding countries’ level of development, GM crops tend to perform better in developing countries than in developed countries, with Bt cotton being the most profitable crop grown.
This article analyses the consequences that a specific new market for non-GM (genetically modifie... more This article analyses the consequences that a specific new market for non-GM (genetically modified) compound
feed would have on the relative profitability of Bt and conventional maize in the middle Ebro Valley (Spain). The study uses information obtained through a survey amongst maize farmers for the year 2009. This paper evaluates the current profitability of Bt maize relative to the profitability of conventional maize showing that at present the probability of Bt maize being more profitable than conventional maize is 100%, mainly due the significantly higher yields of Bt maize. In addition the future of Bt maize is analysed in the event that a specific demand for non-GM maize for feed emerges. Simulations of price premium for conventional maize and their impact on the profitability of Bt maize in the region
are described. To reduce to 50% the probability of Bt maize being more profitable than conventional maize a price premium of 17 €/ton for non-GM maize would be necessary.
The olive industry in Andalusia, Spain, has recently undergone important changes due to the expan... more The olive industry in Andalusia, Spain, has recently undergone important changes due to the expansion and intensification of farming. This process is causing sustainability problems, not only in socio-economic terms (decrease in olive farmers’ profits) but also from an environmental point of view (soil erosion, water pollution and biodiversity losses). The main objective of this study is to develop a methodology to analyse the sustainability of olive-growing farms in Andalusia. This methodology will allow us to take into account the three dimensions of sustainability (economic, socio-cultural and environmental), as well as to obtain a precise diagnosis of olive groves through a selection of indicators. A total of 27 indicators were selected, of which 7 analyse the economic dimension of sustainability, 9 analyse the socio-cultural dimension and 11 evaluate the environmental sustainability of olive groves in Andalusia. This set of indicators aims to help both decision-making processes and the implementation of public policies.
This article examines the adoption of genetically modified herbicide tolerant (GMHT) crops in the... more This article examines the adoption of genetically modified herbicide tolerant (GMHT) crops in the European Union (EU) prior to its commercial release. A set of potential drivers including the implementation of coexistence measures by farmers, farmers’ own motivational factors (e.g. economic, environmental and technical factors) and perceived social pressure to accept or reject adoption may influence European Union farmers’ willingness to adopt GMHT oilseed rape and GMHT maize. The analysis includes economic and sociological factors. Results show that coexistence measures may hamper GMHT adoption in the EU.
Agriculture is having an increasing impact on water resources in Spain, both from a quantitative ... more Agriculture is having an increasing impact on water resources in Spain, both from a quantitative (consumption) and qualitative (pollution) perspective. Therefore, the implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) will have a great impact on this sector. In fact, new river management plans aim to reduce these pressures through the implementation of programmes of measures. These instruments will impose new requirements (costs) on farming systems and may promote the adoption of more efficient and sustainable production methods. Within this context this paper aims to analyse how this new water management plan is being developed. An economic analysis is carried out to select a programme of measures involving irrigated agriculture.
This article analyses European Union (EU) farmers’ attitudes towards adoption of genetically modi... more This article analyses European Union (EU) farmers’ attitudes towards adoption of genetically modified crops by identifying and classifying groups of farmers. Cluster analysis provided two groups of farmers allowing us to classify farmers into potential adopters or rejecters of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) crops. Results showed that economic issues such as the guarantee of a higher income and the reduction of weed control costs are the most encouraging reasons for potential adopters and rejecters of GMHT crops. This article also examines how putting in place measures to ensure coexistence between GM and non-GM crops may influence farmers’ attitudes towards GMHT crop adoption. Results show that the implementation of a coexistence policy would have a negative impact on farmers’ attitudes on adoption and consequently may hamper GMHT adoption in the EU.
This paper shows that unnecessary large isolation distances may restrict farmers' freedom of choi... more This paper shows that unnecessary large isolation distances may restrict farmers' freedom of choice to cultivate GM varieties given the particularities of European landscapes. For the first time we perform a statistical meta-analyses of over 1000 observations on maize gene flow in Europe. Taking into account the results obtained by several statistical approaches, we conclude that separation distances of 40 m are enough to keep out-crossing below legal thresholds (0.9 % in the EU). We conclude that mandatory distances established by some European countries (up to 800 m) may be disproportionate to the desired policy objective.
This paper demonstrates a connection between data envelopment analysis (DEA) and a non-interactiv... more This paper demonstrates a connection between data envelopment analysis (DEA) and a non-interactive elicitation method to estimate the weights of objectives for decision-makers in a multiple attribute approach. This connection gives rise to a modified DEA model that allows us to estimate not only efficiency measures but also preference weights by radially projecting each unit onto a linear combination of the elements of the payoff matrix (which is obtained by standard multicriteria methods). For users of multiple attribute decision analysis the basic contribution of this paper is a new interpretation in terms of efficiency of the non-interactive methodology employed to estimate weights in a multicriteria approach. We also propose a modified procedure to calculate an efficient payoff matrix and a procedure to estimate weights through a radial projection rather than a distance minimization. For DEA users, we provide a modified DEA procedure to calculate preference weights and efficiency measures that does not depend on any observations in the dataset. This methodology has been applied to an agricultural case study in Spain.
This paper describes a comparative analysis of alternative methods of constructing composite indi... more This paper describes a comparative analysis of alternative methods of constructing composite indicators to measure the sustainability of the agricultural sector. The three methods employed were Principal Component Analysis, the Analytic Hierarchy Process and a Multi-Criteria technique. The comparison focused on the irrigated agriculture of the Duero basin in Spain as a case study, using a dataset of indicators previously calculated for various farm types and policy scenarios. The results enabled us to establish a hierarchy of preferred policy scenarios on the basis of the level of sustainability achieved, and show that the most recent CAP reform is the most sustainable agricultural policy scenario. By analyzing the heterogeneity of different farms types in each scenario, we can also determine the main features of the most sustainable farms in each case. The analysis demonstrates that full-time farmers with small to medium-sized farms and sowing profitable crops are the most sustainable farm types in all the policy scenarios. All of this information is useful for the support of agricultural policy design and its implementation, as we attempt to improve the sustainability of this sector.
Practical implementation of Multiattribute Utility Theory is limited, partly for the lack of oper... more Practical implementation of Multiattribute Utility Theory is limited, partly for the lack of operative methods to elicit the parameters of the Multiattribute Utility Function, particularly when this function is not linear. As a consequence, most studies are restricted to linear specifications, which are easier to estimate and to interpret. We propose an indirect method to elicit the parameters of a non-linear utility function to be compatible with the observed behaviour of decision makers, rather than with their answers to direct surveys. The idea rests on approaching the parameter estimation problem as a dual of the decision problem by making the observed decisions to be compatible with a rational decision making process.
This paper presents a methodological approach to the analysis of various combinations of agricult... more This paper presents a methodological approach to the analysis of various combinations of agricultural policy and irrigation water-pricing alternatives. Policy scenarios are simulated by means of multi-criteria mathematical programming models capable of simulating the behaviour of farmers. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) has been chosen as the methodological framework for model-building at farm level. Modelling representative farms in this way enables differential impacts of scenarios considered to be simulated and, through a process of aggregation, global results at basin level to be obtained. Results obtained from the simulation models are not only related to farmers’ decision variables (crop mixes). A set of relevant economic, social and environmental attributes related to public criteria can also be obtained as a way of measuring the efficiency of the suggested policy scenarios. This methodology has been applied to the analysis of irrigated agriculture in the Douro Basin in Spain. The results show the usefulness of this methodological approach to evaluate the impact of policies and highlight the fact that water pricing and agricultural policy need to be closely coordinated in order to meet the EU’s policy objectives for the irrigated agriculture sector.
European water policy, as set out in the Water Framework Directive (WFD), requires all EU Member ... more European water policy, as set out in the Water Framework Directive (WFD), requires all EU Member States to implement volumetric water pricing at rates that roughly cover the total costs of providing water services. The objective of this paper is to develop a methodology that, for the different types of farm in an irrigable area, will enable us to analyse the differential impact that a pricing policy for irrigation water would have. For this purpose, Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) mathematical programming models were used. The methodology is implemented on a representative area in the Duero Valley in Spain. Our results show the usefulness of differential analysis in evaluating the impact of a water pricing policy. This allows significant differences in the evolution of agricultural incomes to be observed, as well as the recovery of costs by the State, demand for agricultural employment and the consumption of agrochemicals resulting from rising prices of irrigation water in various groups of farmers within a given irrigated area.
In this paper we present a methodology for the analysis of input use in the agricultural sector. ... more In this paper we present a methodology for the analysis of input use in the agricultural sector. The novelty of the theoretical model described here is that it has been developed considering a multi-criteria environment. Thus, the optimal input use condition is determined by evaluating “multi-attribute utility” and “multi-attribute marginal utility”. We show how the approach adopted in this paper is a generalisation of the single-attribute expected utility theory. The theoretical model developed is thereafter implemented in an empirical application that studies water for irrigation use as a particular case. The results show how multi-attribute utility functions elicited for a sample of 52 irrigators explain differences in irrigation water use in relatively homogeneous agricultural systems, albeit exhibiting dissimilar partial utility functions for water use. We conclude that these differences come from the dissimilar weights that farmers attach to each attribute in the aggregate utility function.
In modelling farm systems it is widely accepted that risk plays a central role. Furthermore, farm... more In modelling farm systems it is widely accepted that risk plays a central role. Furthermore, farmers’ risk aversion determines their decisions in both the short and the long run. This paper presents a methodology based on multiple criteria mathematical programming to obtain relative and absolute risk aversion coefficients. We rely on multiattribute utility theory to elicit a separable additive multiattribute utility function and estimate the risk aversion coefficients, and apply this methodology to an irrigated area of Northern Spain. The results show a wide variety of attitudes to risk among farmers, who usually exhibit decreasing absolute risk aversion and constant relative risk aversion.
In modelling farm systems it is widely accepted that risk plays a central role. Furthermore, farm... more In modelling farm systems it is widely accepted that risk plays a central role. Furthermore, farmers' risk aversion determines their decisions in both the short and the long run. This paper presents a methodology based on multiple criteria mathematical programming to obtain ...
There is an on-going debate on the environmental effects of genetically modified crops to which t... more There is an on-going debate on the environmental effects of genetically modified crops to which this paper aims to contribute. First, data on environmental impacts of genetically modified (GM) and conventional crops are collected from peer-reviewed journals, and secondly an analysis is conducted in order to examine which crop type is less harmful for the environment. Published data on environmental impacts are measured using an array of indicators, and their analysis requires their normalisation and aggregation. Taking advantage of composite indicators literature, this paper builds composite indicators to measure the impact of GM and conventional crops in three dimensions: (1) non-target key species richness, (2) pesticide use, and (3) aggregated environmental impact. The comparison between the three composite indicators for both crop types allows us to establish not only a ranking to elucidate which crop is more convenient for the environment but the probability that one crop type outperforms the other from an environmental perspective. Results show that GM crops tend to cause lower environmental impacts than conventional crops for the analysed indicators.
Law 46/1999 incorporated formal water markets into the Spanish legal and regulatory framework, al... more Law 46/1999 incorporated formal water markets into the Spanish legal and regulatory framework, allowing spot water markets and the creation of water banks. The implementation of water markets in Spain aimed at improving the efficiency of water use by reallocating water towards uses with higher added value. However, the performance of water markets in Spain has been rather disappointing, since they have been operative only during drought periods, and even under these extreme scarcity situations, trading activity counted for less than 5.0% of total water use. The narrowness of the market suggests that there are some barriers hampering their effective functioning. This paper examines the evolution and performance of water markets in Spain, relying on a transaction costs analysis framework. This analysis allows the identification of the main factors impeding water markets from operating effectively as a water reallocation tool. This analysis also provides some guidelines on how to overcome these obstacles and, thus, how to improve the efficiency of water use.
Andalusia, located in southern Spain, is the major olive production area worldwide. Due to the re... more Andalusia, located in southern Spain, is the major olive production area worldwide. Due to the relevance of this agricultural sector on the regional income, this article investigates olive farmer's perspectives regarding olive production after their retirement and potential factors affecting these including economic, social, environmental and spatial factors. We use data from a survey conducted to 431 olive farmers in Andalusia in 2010. Our findings show spatial dependence in explaining farmer's views on the future of olive farming at relatively small distances. In addition other factors such as bad economic performance, erosion or olive diseases affect farmer's perception. We make propositions on what elements should be taking into account when designing agricultural policies aiming at guaranteeing the sustainability of olive farming in future.
This paper presents a meta-analysis of the economic and agronomic performance of genetically modi... more This paper presents a meta-analysis of the economic and agronomic performance of genetically modified (GM) crops worldwide. Bayesian, classical and non-parametric approaches were used to evaluate the performance of GM crops v. their conventional counterparts. The two main GM crop traits (herbicide tolerant (HT) and insect resistant (Bt)) and three of the main GM crops produced worldwide (Bt cotton, HT soybean and Bt maize) were analysed in terms of yield, production cost and gross margin. The scope of the analysis covers developing and developed countries, six world regions, and all countries combined. Results from the statistical analyses indicate that GM crops perform better than their conventional counterparts in agronomic and economic (gross margin) terms. Regarding countries’ level of development, GM crops tend to perform better in developing countries than in developed countries, with Bt cotton being the most profitable crop grown.
This article analyses the consequences that a specific new market for non-GM (genetically modifie... more This article analyses the consequences that a specific new market for non-GM (genetically modified) compound
feed would have on the relative profitability of Bt and conventional maize in the middle Ebro Valley (Spain). The study uses information obtained through a survey amongst maize farmers for the year 2009. This paper evaluates the current profitability of Bt maize relative to the profitability of conventional maize showing that at present the probability of Bt maize being more profitable than conventional maize is 100%, mainly due the significantly higher yields of Bt maize. In addition the future of Bt maize is analysed in the event that a specific demand for non-GM maize for feed emerges. Simulations of price premium for conventional maize and their impact on the profitability of Bt maize in the region
are described. To reduce to 50% the probability of Bt maize being more profitable than conventional maize a price premium of 17 €/ton for non-GM maize would be necessary.
The olive industry in Andalusia, Spain, has recently undergone important changes due to the expan... more The olive industry in Andalusia, Spain, has recently undergone important changes due to the expansion and intensification of farming. This process is causing sustainability problems, not only in socio-economic terms (decrease in olive farmers’ profits) but also from an environmental point of view (soil erosion, water pollution and biodiversity losses). The main objective of this study is to develop a methodology to analyse the sustainability of olive-growing farms in Andalusia. This methodology will allow us to take into account the three dimensions of sustainability (economic, socio-cultural and environmental), as well as to obtain a precise diagnosis of olive groves through a selection of indicators. A total of 27 indicators were selected, of which 7 analyse the economic dimension of sustainability, 9 analyse the socio-cultural dimension and 11 evaluate the environmental sustainability of olive groves in Andalusia. This set of indicators aims to help both decision-making processes and the implementation of public policies.
This article examines the adoption of genetically modified herbicide tolerant (GMHT) crops in the... more This article examines the adoption of genetically modified herbicide tolerant (GMHT) crops in the European Union (EU) prior to its commercial release. A set of potential drivers including the implementation of coexistence measures by farmers, farmers’ own motivational factors (e.g. economic, environmental and technical factors) and perceived social pressure to accept or reject adoption may influence European Union farmers’ willingness to adopt GMHT oilseed rape and GMHT maize. The analysis includes economic and sociological factors. Results show that coexistence measures may hamper GMHT adoption in the EU.
Agriculture is having an increasing impact on water resources in Spain, both from a quantitative ... more Agriculture is having an increasing impact on water resources in Spain, both from a quantitative (consumption) and qualitative (pollution) perspective. Therefore, the implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) will have a great impact on this sector. In fact, new river management plans aim to reduce these pressures through the implementation of programmes of measures. These instruments will impose new requirements (costs) on farming systems and may promote the adoption of more efficient and sustainable production methods. Within this context this paper aims to analyse how this new water management plan is being developed. An economic analysis is carried out to select a programme of measures involving irrigated agriculture.
This article analyses European Union (EU) farmers’ attitudes towards adoption of genetically modi... more This article analyses European Union (EU) farmers’ attitudes towards adoption of genetically modified crops by identifying and classifying groups of farmers. Cluster analysis provided two groups of farmers allowing us to classify farmers into potential adopters or rejecters of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) crops. Results showed that economic issues such as the guarantee of a higher income and the reduction of weed control costs are the most encouraging reasons for potential adopters and rejecters of GMHT crops. This article also examines how putting in place measures to ensure coexistence between GM and non-GM crops may influence farmers’ attitudes towards GMHT crop adoption. Results show that the implementation of a coexistence policy would have a negative impact on farmers’ attitudes on adoption and consequently may hamper GMHT adoption in the EU.
This paper shows that unnecessary large isolation distances may restrict farmers' freedom of choi... more This paper shows that unnecessary large isolation distances may restrict farmers' freedom of choice to cultivate GM varieties given the particularities of European landscapes. For the first time we perform a statistical meta-analyses of over 1000 observations on maize gene flow in Europe. Taking into account the results obtained by several statistical approaches, we conclude that separation distances of 40 m are enough to keep out-crossing below legal thresholds (0.9 % in the EU). We conclude that mandatory distances established by some European countries (up to 800 m) may be disproportionate to the desired policy objective.
This paper demonstrates a connection between data envelopment analysis (DEA) and a non-interactiv... more This paper demonstrates a connection between data envelopment analysis (DEA) and a non-interactive elicitation method to estimate the weights of objectives for decision-makers in a multiple attribute approach. This connection gives rise to a modified DEA model that allows us to estimate not only efficiency measures but also preference weights by radially projecting each unit onto a linear combination of the elements of the payoff matrix (which is obtained by standard multicriteria methods). For users of multiple attribute decision analysis the basic contribution of this paper is a new interpretation in terms of efficiency of the non-interactive methodology employed to estimate weights in a multicriteria approach. We also propose a modified procedure to calculate an efficient payoff matrix and a procedure to estimate weights through a radial projection rather than a distance minimization. For DEA users, we provide a modified DEA procedure to calculate preference weights and efficiency measures that does not depend on any observations in the dataset. This methodology has been applied to an agricultural case study in Spain.
This paper describes a comparative analysis of alternative methods of constructing composite indi... more This paper describes a comparative analysis of alternative methods of constructing composite indicators to measure the sustainability of the agricultural sector. The three methods employed were Principal Component Analysis, the Analytic Hierarchy Process and a Multi-Criteria technique. The comparison focused on the irrigated agriculture of the Duero basin in Spain as a case study, using a dataset of indicators previously calculated for various farm types and policy scenarios. The results enabled us to establish a hierarchy of preferred policy scenarios on the basis of the level of sustainability achieved, and show that the most recent CAP reform is the most sustainable agricultural policy scenario. By analyzing the heterogeneity of different farms types in each scenario, we can also determine the main features of the most sustainable farms in each case. The analysis demonstrates that full-time farmers with small to medium-sized farms and sowing profitable crops are the most sustainable farm types in all the policy scenarios. All of this information is useful for the support of agricultural policy design and its implementation, as we attempt to improve the sustainability of this sector.
Practical implementation of Multiattribute Utility Theory is limited, partly for the lack of oper... more Practical implementation of Multiattribute Utility Theory is limited, partly for the lack of operative methods to elicit the parameters of the Multiattribute Utility Function, particularly when this function is not linear. As a consequence, most studies are restricted to linear specifications, which are easier to estimate and to interpret. We propose an indirect method to elicit the parameters of a non-linear utility function to be compatible with the observed behaviour of decision makers, rather than with their answers to direct surveys. The idea rests on approaching the parameter estimation problem as a dual of the decision problem by making the observed decisions to be compatible with a rational decision making process.
This paper presents a methodological approach to the analysis of various combinations of agricult... more This paper presents a methodological approach to the analysis of various combinations of agricultural policy and irrigation water-pricing alternatives. Policy scenarios are simulated by means of multi-criteria mathematical programming models capable of simulating the behaviour of farmers. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) has been chosen as the methodological framework for model-building at farm level. Modelling representative farms in this way enables differential impacts of scenarios considered to be simulated and, through a process of aggregation, global results at basin level to be obtained. Results obtained from the simulation models are not only related to farmers’ decision variables (crop mixes). A set of relevant economic, social and environmental attributes related to public criteria can also be obtained as a way of measuring the efficiency of the suggested policy scenarios. This methodology has been applied to the analysis of irrigated agriculture in the Douro Basin in Spain. The results show the usefulness of this methodological approach to evaluate the impact of policies and highlight the fact that water pricing and agricultural policy need to be closely coordinated in order to meet the EU’s policy objectives for the irrigated agriculture sector.
European water policy, as set out in the Water Framework Directive (WFD), requires all EU Member ... more European water policy, as set out in the Water Framework Directive (WFD), requires all EU Member States to implement volumetric water pricing at rates that roughly cover the total costs of providing water services. The objective of this paper is to develop a methodology that, for the different types of farm in an irrigable area, will enable us to analyse the differential impact that a pricing policy for irrigation water would have. For this purpose, Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) mathematical programming models were used. The methodology is implemented on a representative area in the Duero Valley in Spain. Our results show the usefulness of differential analysis in evaluating the impact of a water pricing policy. This allows significant differences in the evolution of agricultural incomes to be observed, as well as the recovery of costs by the State, demand for agricultural employment and the consumption of agrochemicals resulting from rising prices of irrigation water in various groups of farmers within a given irrigated area.
In this paper we present a methodology for the analysis of input use in the agricultural sector. ... more In this paper we present a methodology for the analysis of input use in the agricultural sector. The novelty of the theoretical model described here is that it has been developed considering a multi-criteria environment. Thus, the optimal input use condition is determined by evaluating “multi-attribute utility” and “multi-attribute marginal utility”. We show how the approach adopted in this paper is a generalisation of the single-attribute expected utility theory. The theoretical model developed is thereafter implemented in an empirical application that studies water for irrigation use as a particular case. The results show how multi-attribute utility functions elicited for a sample of 52 irrigators explain differences in irrigation water use in relatively homogeneous agricultural systems, albeit exhibiting dissimilar partial utility functions for water use. We conclude that these differences come from the dissimilar weights that farmers attach to each attribute in the aggregate utility function.
In modelling farm systems it is widely accepted that risk plays a central role. Furthermore, farm... more In modelling farm systems it is widely accepted that risk plays a central role. Furthermore, farmers’ risk aversion determines their decisions in both the short and the long run. This paper presents a methodology based on multiple criteria mathematical programming to obtain relative and absolute risk aversion coefficients. We rely on multiattribute utility theory to elicit a separable additive multiattribute utility function and estimate the risk aversion coefficients, and apply this methodology to an irrigated area of Northern Spain. The results show a wide variety of attitudes to risk among farmers, who usually exhibit decreasing absolute risk aversion and constant relative risk aversion.
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Papers by Laura Riesgo
feed would have on the relative profitability of Bt and conventional maize in the middle Ebro Valley (Spain). The study uses information obtained through a survey amongst maize farmers for the year 2009. This paper evaluates the current profitability of Bt maize relative to the profitability of conventional maize showing that at present the probability of Bt maize being more profitable than conventional maize is 100%, mainly due the significantly higher yields of Bt maize. In addition the future of Bt maize is analysed in the event that a specific demand for non-GM maize for feed emerges. Simulations of price premium for conventional maize and their impact on the profitability of Bt maize in the region
are described. To reduce to 50% the probability of Bt maize being more profitable than conventional maize a price premium of 17 €/ton for non-GM maize would be necessary.
feed would have on the relative profitability of Bt and conventional maize in the middle Ebro Valley (Spain). The study uses information obtained through a survey amongst maize farmers for the year 2009. This paper evaluates the current profitability of Bt maize relative to the profitability of conventional maize showing that at present the probability of Bt maize being more profitable than conventional maize is 100%, mainly due the significantly higher yields of Bt maize. In addition the future of Bt maize is analysed in the event that a specific demand for non-GM maize for feed emerges. Simulations of price premium for conventional maize and their impact on the profitability of Bt maize in the region
are described. To reduce to 50% the probability of Bt maize being more profitable than conventional maize a price premium of 17 €/ton for non-GM maize would be necessary.