Most tropical cyclones weaken as they come ashore or track poleward over colder ocean water. Yet some tropical cyclones go through a number of changes that may cause them to remain a threat after landfall or as they move poleward from the... more
Most tropical cyclones weaken as they come ashore or track poleward over colder ocean water. Yet some tropical cyclones go through a number of changes that may cause them to remain a threat after landfall or as they move poleward from the tropics. The acceleration or reintensification of these storms is associated with their transition from a tropical cyclone to a system with characteristics more common to midlatitude, extratropical storms. This “extratropical transition” (ET) is a complex and highly variable process that is currently poorly understood.
In the United States, intense hurricanes (category 3, 4, and 5 on the Saffir/Simpson scale) with winds greater than 50 m s -1 have caused more damage than any other natural disaster [Pielke and Pielke, 1997]. Accurate estimates of wind... more
In the United States, intense hurricanes (category 3, 4, and 5 on the Saffir/Simpson scale) with winds greater than 50 m s -1 have caused more damage than any other natural disaster [Pielke and Pielke, 1997]. Accurate estimates of wind speed exceedance probabilities (WSEP) due to intense hurricanes are therefore of great interest to (re)insurers, emergency planners, government officials, and populations in vulnerable coastal areas.The historical record of U.S. hurricane landfall is relatively complete only from about 1900, and most model estimates of WSEP are derived from this record. During the 1899-1998 period, only two category-5 and 16 category-4 hurricanes made landfall in the United States. The historical record therefore provides only a limited sample of the most intense hurricanes.
Relative sea level (RSL) observations since 1969 at U.S. tide stations exhibit trends in RSL rise rate and acceleration that vary in response to both global and regional processes. Trend histories display a high degree of similarity... more
Relative sea level (RSL) observations since 1969 at U.S. tide stations exhibit trends in RSL rise rate and acceleration that vary in response to both global and regional processes. Trend histories display a high degree of similarity between locations in coastal regions that are experiencing similar processes. With the exception of the U.S. Northeast Coast and Alaska,every other coastal location in the continental U.S. has experienced an upturn in RSL rise rate since 2013-2014 despite wide differences in the magnitude and trending direction of RSL acceleration. High RSL acceleration along the U.S. Northeast Coast has trended downward since 2011 while low RSL acceleration along the U.S Southeast Coast has recently trended upward in response to changes likely associated with ocean dynamics and ice sheet loss. RSL change in the sedimentary basins of the central U.S. Gulf Coast region is highly dependent on local rates of vertical land movement (VLM). VLM here varies over relatively shor...
