Europe’s rural areas are expected to witness rapid changes due to developments in demography, (ag... more Europe’s rural areas are expected to witness rapid changes due to developments in demography, (agricultural) policies, global trade, climate change, technology and enlargement of the European Union. These changes will affect farmers’ production and income level and make the final outcome of this process uncertain. This paper tries to assess this uncertainty by analyzing the results of 34 scenarios of
The paper investigates the impact of the EU Biofuels Directive (BFD) on the EU agri-food supply c... more The paper investigates the impact of the EU Biofuels Directive (BFD) on the EU agri-food supply chain using the computable general equilibrium model of the world economy named LEITAP. LEITAP is an extended version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model including an improved land market modeling, substitution possibilities between capital and energy as well as between different energy
Introduction The aim of this paper is to assess the economic impact of the transfer of funds from... more Introduction The aim of this paper is to assess the economic impact of the transfer of funds from direct income support to farmers (Pillar One) to rural development money (Pillar Two) of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) through the compulsory modulation mechanism, as provided for under Article 10 of Council Regulation (EC) No 1782/2003. Modulation was introduced, originally as a voluntary mechanism, in 2000 as a means of increasing support for rural development within the CAP. This is achieved by transferring a proportion of the Pillar One budget to the funding of rural development measures under Pillar Two. This requirement became mandatory in 2003 as a result of the Mid Term Evaluation of the CAP. This currently applies to the EU-15, however compulsory modulation will apply to the twelve new Member States that acceded to the EU in 2004 and 2007 when their Pillar One payments reach the same level as those of the EU-15. For the 2007-13 programming period, compulsory modulation i...
Decoupling of direct payments can be expected to have complex effects and the net effect on crop ... more Decoupling of direct payments can be expected to have complex effects and the net effect on crop and fodder acreage is unclear. A literature review reveals that various simulation models uniformly project a decline of the cereal and silage maize acreage as well as ruminant production in the EU-15 in the course of decoupling of direct payments. In contrast, model
This paper examines the effect of the future developments of Russian and Ukrainian agricultural s... more This paper examines the effect of the future developments of Russian and Ukrainian agricultural sectors and their impact on the world market prices for arable crops. Employed in the study is AGMEMOD, a partial equilibrium economic model of EU agriculture at the Member State level that has been extended by Russia and Ukraine to gain quantitative insights. Vital for the
The past and future international competitiveness of Hungarian agriculture is assessed by calcula... more The past and future international competitiveness of Hungarian agriculture is assessed by calculating domestic resource cost (DRC) ratios using data for 2000–02 as a base. Future international competitiveness is estimated for 2007 and 2013 under three scenarios: baseline (no accession), accession with historical rates of productivity growth and accession with dynamic improvements in productivity. Predicted price changes were generated by
This article analyses the impact of the EU Biofuels Directive (BFD) on the EU agri-food supply ch... more This article analyses the impact of the EU Biofuels Directive (BFD) on the EU agri-food supply chain using a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, LEITAP. LEITAP is an extended version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model including improved land market modeling, substitution possibilities between capital and energy, different energy sources including biofuels, feed byproducts of
Europe’s rural areas are expected to witness rapid changes due to developments in demography, (ag... more Europe’s rural areas are expected to witness rapid changes due to developments in demography, (agricultural) policies, global trade, climate change, technology and enlargement of the European Union. These changes will affect farmers’ production and income level and make the final outcome of this process uncertain. This paper tries to assess this uncertainty by analyzing the results of 34 scenarios of the EURURALIS project. The scenario outcomes were used to investigate agricultural income development and to analyze the impact of different combinations of macroeconomic and policy factors on agricultural income. The results of these scenarios were achieved in a modeling framework consisting of a modified version of the Global Trade Analysis Project model (GTAP) and the more ecological-environmental oriented Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE).
Europe’s rural areas are expected to witness rapid changes due to developments in demography, (ag... more Europe’s rural areas are expected to witness rapid changes due to developments in demography, (agricultural) policies, global trade, climate change, technology and enlargement of the European Union. These changes will affect farmers’ production and income level and make the final outcome of this process uncertain. This paper tries to assess this uncertainty by analyzing the results of 34 scenarios of
The paper investigates the impact of the EU Biofuels Directive (BFD) on the EU agri-food supply c... more The paper investigates the impact of the EU Biofuels Directive (BFD) on the EU agri-food supply chain using the computable general equilibrium model of the world economy named LEITAP. LEITAP is an extended version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model including an improved land market modeling, substitution possibilities between capital and energy as well as between different energy
Introduction The aim of this paper is to assess the economic impact of the transfer of funds from... more Introduction The aim of this paper is to assess the economic impact of the transfer of funds from direct income support to farmers (Pillar One) to rural development money (Pillar Two) of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) through the compulsory modulation mechanism, as provided for under Article 10 of Council Regulation (EC) No 1782/2003. Modulation was introduced, originally as a voluntary mechanism, in 2000 as a means of increasing support for rural development within the CAP. This is achieved by transferring a proportion of the Pillar One budget to the funding of rural development measures under Pillar Two. This requirement became mandatory in 2003 as a result of the Mid Term Evaluation of the CAP. This currently applies to the EU-15, however compulsory modulation will apply to the twelve new Member States that acceded to the EU in 2004 and 2007 when their Pillar One payments reach the same level as those of the EU-15. For the 2007-13 programming period, compulsory modulation i...
Decoupling of direct payments can be expected to have complex effects and the net effect on crop ... more Decoupling of direct payments can be expected to have complex effects and the net effect on crop and fodder acreage is unclear. A literature review reveals that various simulation models uniformly project a decline of the cereal and silage maize acreage as well as ruminant production in the EU-15 in the course of decoupling of direct payments. In contrast, model
This paper examines the effect of the future developments of Russian and Ukrainian agricultural s... more This paper examines the effect of the future developments of Russian and Ukrainian agricultural sectors and their impact on the world market prices for arable crops. Employed in the study is AGMEMOD, a partial equilibrium economic model of EU agriculture at the Member State level that has been extended by Russia and Ukraine to gain quantitative insights. Vital for the
The past and future international competitiveness of Hungarian agriculture is assessed by calcula... more The past and future international competitiveness of Hungarian agriculture is assessed by calculating domestic resource cost (DRC) ratios using data for 2000–02 as a base. Future international competitiveness is estimated for 2007 and 2013 under three scenarios: baseline (no accession), accession with historical rates of productivity growth and accession with dynamic improvements in productivity. Predicted price changes were generated by
This article analyses the impact of the EU Biofuels Directive (BFD) on the EU agri-food supply ch... more This article analyses the impact of the EU Biofuels Directive (BFD) on the EU agri-food supply chain using a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, LEITAP. LEITAP is an extended version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model including improved land market modeling, substitution possibilities between capital and energy, different energy sources including biofuels, feed byproducts of
Europe’s rural areas are expected to witness rapid changes due to developments in demography, (ag... more Europe’s rural areas are expected to witness rapid changes due to developments in demography, (agricultural) policies, global trade, climate change, technology and enlargement of the European Union. These changes will affect farmers’ production and income level and make the final outcome of this process uncertain. This paper tries to assess this uncertainty by analyzing the results of 34 scenarios of the EURURALIS project. The scenario outcomes were used to investigate agricultural income development and to analyze the impact of different combinations of macroeconomic and policy factors on agricultural income. The results of these scenarios were achieved in a modeling framework consisting of a modified version of the Global Trade Analysis Project model (GTAP) and the more ecological-environmental oriented Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE).
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Papers by Martin Banse