In the past fifteen years of experience spanning PhD research program and practice, I gained in-depth knowledge about climate science, meteorology, climate change, climate monitoring (through climate observations network set-up) and climate change impacts in West Africa. In majority of my papers, I have noted and overcome most of the problems related to data availability, modelling African climate, intraseasonal risk assessments, Seasonal prediction and the development of plausible climate change scenarios for impact, risks, and vulnerability assessments. Phone: +49-151-75217469
Gridding precipitation datasets for climate information services in the semi-arid regions of West... more Gridding precipitation datasets for climate information services in the semi-arid regions of West Africa has some advantages due to the limited spatial coverage of rain gauges, the limited accessibility to in situ gauge data, and the important progress in earth observation and climate modelling systems. Can accurate information on the occurrence of heavy precipitation in this area be provided using gridded datasets? Furthermore, what about the future of heavy rain events (HRE) under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (i.e., SSP126 and SSP370)? To address these questions, daily precipitation records from 17 datasets, including satellite estimates, interpolated rain gauge data, reanalysis, merged products, a regional climate model, and global circulation models, are examined and compared to quality-controlled in situ data from 69 rain gauges evenly distributed across West Africa’s semi-arid region. The results show a cons...
The number of solar power plants has increased in West Africa in recent years. Reliable reanalysi... more The number of solar power plants has increased in West Africa in recent years. Reliable reanalysis data and short-term forecasting of solar irradiance from numerical weather prediction models could provide an economic advantage for the planning and operation of solar power plants, especially in data-poor regions such as West Africa. This study presents a detailed assessment of different shortwave (SW) radiation schemes from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model option Solar (WRF-Solar), with appropriate configurations for different atmospheric conditions in Ghana and the southern part of Burkina Faso. We applied two 1-way nested domains (D1 = 15 km and D2 = 3 km) to investigate four different SW schemes, namely, the Community Atmosphere Model, Dudhia, RRTMG, Goddard, and RRTMG without aerosol and with aerosol inputs (RRTMG_AERO). The simulation results were validated using hourly measurements from different automatic weather stations established in the study region in rec...
To feed the growing population, achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, and fulfil the commitm... more To feed the growing population, achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, and fulfil the commitments of the Paris Agreement, West African countries need to invest in agricultural development and renewable energy, among other sectors. Irrigated agriculture, feeding millions of people, and hydropower, generating clean electricity, depend on water availability and compete for the resource. In the Volta basin, the planned 105 000 ha of irrigated land in Burkina Faso and Ghana could feed hundreds of thousands of people. However, irrigation in the dry season depends on upstream dams that change the river’s flow regime from intermittent to permanent, and at the same time irrigation water is no longer available for hydropower generation. Using an integrated eco-hydrological and water management model, we investigated the water demand and supply of three planned irrigation projects and the impacts of the planned Pwalugu multi-purpose dam on the hydropower potentials and water availability i...
Le futur de l’Afrique de l’Ouest, son équilibre économique, politique et social dépendent de la c... more Le futur de l’Afrique de l’Ouest, son équilibre économique, politique et social dépendent de la capacité du secteur de l’agriculture à s’adapter pour garantir la sécurité alimentaire dans un contexte de pressions multiples comme celles engendrées par le changement climatique et la croissance démographique. Pour faciliter cette adaptation, la recherche a déployé d’importants efforts ces dernières années en améliorant la connaissance sur la compréhension des changements climatiques en Afrique d..
Reliable long‐term observations from precipitation stations are often required for climatological... more Reliable long‐term observations from precipitation stations are often required for climatological studies but are strongly limited in many regions of the world. To improve this limitation for West Africa, we compiled daily and monthly observations from more than 20 national, continental and global databases, to establish a historical precipitation archive with a focus on four countries (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Benin and Togo). The new archive contains long‐term daily and monthly precipitation measurements from 1819 to 2013 for more than 1,000 sites. It is, therefore, the most comprehensive historical dataset with daily and monthly precipitation observations for this region. To produce a quality‐controlled and harmonized precipitation dataset for the focal region, various statistical algorithms have been implemented. These algorithms rely on straightforward geostatistical approaches (e.g., spatial correlograms) and corresponding statistical tests for identification and elimination of un...
<p>Climate change phenomena represent the most serious threats to human well-being ... more <p>Climate change phenomena represent the most serious threats to human well-being and sustainable development. This affects several dimensions of human life from individual health issues to economic growth, passing through civil protection, with strong impacts on European territories and in several other world regions. The I-CHANGE (Individual Change of HAbits Needed for Green European transition, 2021-2025) project faces the challenge of engaging and promoting the active participation of citizens for addressing climate change, sustainable development and environmental protection in the framework of the European Green Deal , the European Climate Pact and the European Biodiversity Strategy for 2030. The overall driving concept is that citizens and civil society have a central role in the definition of environmental protection and climate action and their direct involvement is essential to drive a true shift and promotion of changes of behaviors towards more sustainable patterns. I-CHANGE represents a change of paradigm achievable through a multi-disciplinary and participatory approach: improvement of data usability - citizen awareness raises through the observation of the environmental impacts of human activities; active participation of citizens - the active involvement of citizens through a set of Living Labs (LLs) located in different socio-economic contexts (Europe, Middle-East and Africa); climate change awareness - the development of clear understanding for citizens of the scientific processes underlying climate change and environmental protections. First year of I-CHANGE activities will be presented and discussed.</p>
The current and projected regional climate may strain investments in crop and livestock productio... more The current and projected regional climate may strain investments in crop and livestock production systems, fisheries, and other water [natural] resources management in sub-Saharan Africa. Meanwhile, changes in some oceanic parameters across the Atlantic Ocean may lead to remarkably high vulnerability of coastal ecosystem, littorals, and the mangroves towards the mid-21st Century and beyond. Here, we identify the priority needs for adaptation and well-fitted adaptation options, deemed sustainable over the future climate, clean and low-cost in line with the countries' green economic emergence goals. Based on field evidence and customized simulation designs, the cost of these adaptation measures may likely decrease and benefit sustainable green growth in agriculture, water resources management, and coastal ecosystems of West Africa as hydroclimatic hazards grow to include pluviometric and thermal extremes. These adaption actions can be operationalized using sovereign wealth funds ...
L'analyse de la pluviométrie en zone sahélienne montre qu'à partir des années 1990, les s... more L'analyse de la pluviométrie en zone sahélienne montre qu'à partir des années 1990, les saisons pluvieuses présentent un caractère mixte d'évènements extrêmes pluviométriques (SALACK et al.,2016). Outre des pluies intenses, la distribution des évènements pluvieux est jalonnée de longues poches de sécheresse en début ou en fin de saison. Ces évènements erratiques, associés à la distribution de la pluviométrie intra-saisonnière, peuvent avoir des impacts très sévères sur les systèmes de production agricole. Considérés comme des ' extrêmes pluviométriques ', ils peuvent également créer des conditions extrêmement contraignantes pour les producteurs dans la gestion et la planification de leurs travaux agricoles. Les extrêmes pluviométriques les plus récurrents au Sahel sont les ' faux-départs de saison agricole ', les pauses pluviométriques extrêmes, les pluies diluviennes et les fins précoces de saison des pluies. L'occurrence d'un de ces facteurs ou la combinaison de plusieurs d'entre eux au cours d'une saison culturale complique la planification et la gestion de l'agriculture de subsistance des petites exploitations familiales. De tous les extrêmes pluviométriques, les faux-départs (FD) des saisons font l'objet d'une attention particulière en raison de leur rôle dans la qualité de la saison agricole
(Estimating climate variability and change; CLIMATE IMPACTS PREDICTION SYSTEMS) Crop-climate ense... more (Estimating climate variability and change; CLIMATE IMPACTS PREDICTION SYSTEMS) Crop-climate ensemble scenarios to narrow uncertainty in the evaluation of climate change impacts on agricultural production
Risques climatiques et agriculture en Afrique de l’Ouest, 2020
L'analyse de la pluviometrie en zone sahelienne montre qu'a partir des annees 1990, les s... more L'analyse de la pluviometrie en zone sahelienne montre qu'a partir des annees 1990, les saisons pluvieuses presentent un caractere mixte d'evenements extremes pluviometriques (SALACK et al.,2016). Outre des pluies intenses, la distribution des evenements pluvieux est jalonnee de longues poches de secheresse en debut ou en fin de saison. Ces evenements erratiques, associes a la distribution de la pluviometrie intra-saisonniere, peuvent avoir des impacts tres severes sur les systemes de production agricole. Consideres comme des ' extremes pluviometriques ', ils peuvent egalement creer des conditions extremement contraignantes pour les producteurs dans la gestion et la planification de leurs travaux agricoles. Les extremes pluviometriques les plus recurrents au Sahel sont les ' faux-departs de saison agricole ', les pauses pluviometriques extremes, les pluies diluviennes et les fins precoces de saison des pluies. L'occurrence d'un de ces facteurs ou la combinaison de plusieurs d'entre eux au cours d'une saison culturale complique la planification et la gestion de l'agriculture de subsistance des petites exploitations familiales. De tous les extremes pluviometriques, les faux-departs (FD) des saisons font l'objet d'une attention particuliere en raison de leur role dans la qualite de la saison agricole.
Risques climatiques et agriculture en Afrique de l’Ouest, 2020
L’information pluviométrique en Afrique de l’Ouest L’information pluviométrique est définie comme... more L’information pluviométrique en Afrique de l’Ouest L’information pluviométrique est définie comme la diffusion d’informations liées aux caractéristiques d’une saison (pluie, inondation, sécheresse) dans des localités de choix en direction des producteurs. Elle représente une innovation et joue un rôle très important dans la gestion des risques en agriculture (Meza et al., 2008), puisqu’elle permet non seulement d’anticiper les effets néfastes des extrêmes pluviométriques, mais aussi de prendr..
Multi-scale analyses of dry spells across Niger and SenegalThe intra-seasonal episodes of ‘‘rainl... more Multi-scale analyses of dry spells across Niger and SenegalThe intra-seasonal episodes of ‘‘rainless days’’ or dry spells are hazardous events fortraditional rainfed agriculture in the West African Sahel. The objective of this study isto identify the seasonal and multi-site distribution of dry spells (DS), their seasonalityandtheirimplicationsinlocalrainfallvariability.Theresultsdefinearegionaldryspelland show the prevalence of extreme dry spells after onset and before cessation of therainy season. These types of dry spells mark the false start of the rainy season. Dryspells 15 days (in May-June-July) and 8-14 days (in August-September) are of lowfrequency of occurrence and correlated to rainfall deficits. Periods of these types ofdryspellsinNigeraresimilartothosefoundintheNorthGuineanregionsofSenegal.Approximately a one-month lag is found between the Sahelian regions of the twocountries. The years in which extreme dry spells were found to be coherent over atleast one third of the o...
Gridding precipitation datasets for climate information services in the semi-arid regions of West... more Gridding precipitation datasets for climate information services in the semi-arid regions of West Africa has some advantages due to the limited spatial coverage of rain gauges, the limited accessibility to in situ gauge data, and the important progress in earth observation and climate modelling systems. Can accurate information on the occurrence of heavy precipitation in this area be provided using gridded datasets? Furthermore, what about the future of heavy rain events (HRE) under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (i.e., SSP126 and SSP370)? To address these questions, daily precipitation records from 17 datasets, including satellite estimates, interpolated rain gauge data, reanalysis, merged products, a regional climate model, and global circulation models, are examined and compared to quality-controlled in situ data from 69 rain gauges evenly distributed across West Africa’s semi-arid region. The results show a cons...
The number of solar power plants has increased in West Africa in recent years. Reliable reanalysi... more The number of solar power plants has increased in West Africa in recent years. Reliable reanalysis data and short-term forecasting of solar irradiance from numerical weather prediction models could provide an economic advantage for the planning and operation of solar power plants, especially in data-poor regions such as West Africa. This study presents a detailed assessment of different shortwave (SW) radiation schemes from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model option Solar (WRF-Solar), with appropriate configurations for different atmospheric conditions in Ghana and the southern part of Burkina Faso. We applied two 1-way nested domains (D1 = 15 km and D2 = 3 km) to investigate four different SW schemes, namely, the Community Atmosphere Model, Dudhia, RRTMG, Goddard, and RRTMG without aerosol and with aerosol inputs (RRTMG_AERO). The simulation results were validated using hourly measurements from different automatic weather stations established in the study region in rec...
To feed the growing population, achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, and fulfil the commitm... more To feed the growing population, achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, and fulfil the commitments of the Paris Agreement, West African countries need to invest in agricultural development and renewable energy, among other sectors. Irrigated agriculture, feeding millions of people, and hydropower, generating clean electricity, depend on water availability and compete for the resource. In the Volta basin, the planned 105 000 ha of irrigated land in Burkina Faso and Ghana could feed hundreds of thousands of people. However, irrigation in the dry season depends on upstream dams that change the river’s flow regime from intermittent to permanent, and at the same time irrigation water is no longer available for hydropower generation. Using an integrated eco-hydrological and water management model, we investigated the water demand and supply of three planned irrigation projects and the impacts of the planned Pwalugu multi-purpose dam on the hydropower potentials and water availability i...
Le futur de l’Afrique de l’Ouest, son équilibre économique, politique et social dépendent de la c... more Le futur de l’Afrique de l’Ouest, son équilibre économique, politique et social dépendent de la capacité du secteur de l’agriculture à s’adapter pour garantir la sécurité alimentaire dans un contexte de pressions multiples comme celles engendrées par le changement climatique et la croissance démographique. Pour faciliter cette adaptation, la recherche a déployé d’importants efforts ces dernières années en améliorant la connaissance sur la compréhension des changements climatiques en Afrique d..
Reliable long‐term observations from precipitation stations are often required for climatological... more Reliable long‐term observations from precipitation stations are often required for climatological studies but are strongly limited in many regions of the world. To improve this limitation for West Africa, we compiled daily and monthly observations from more than 20 national, continental and global databases, to establish a historical precipitation archive with a focus on four countries (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Benin and Togo). The new archive contains long‐term daily and monthly precipitation measurements from 1819 to 2013 for more than 1,000 sites. It is, therefore, the most comprehensive historical dataset with daily and monthly precipitation observations for this region. To produce a quality‐controlled and harmonized precipitation dataset for the focal region, various statistical algorithms have been implemented. These algorithms rely on straightforward geostatistical approaches (e.g., spatial correlograms) and corresponding statistical tests for identification and elimination of un...
<p>Climate change phenomena represent the most serious threats to human well-being ... more <p>Climate change phenomena represent the most serious threats to human well-being and sustainable development. This affects several dimensions of human life from individual health issues to economic growth, passing through civil protection, with strong impacts on European territories and in several other world regions. The I-CHANGE (Individual Change of HAbits Needed for Green European transition, 2021-2025) project faces the challenge of engaging and promoting the active participation of citizens for addressing climate change, sustainable development and environmental protection in the framework of the European Green Deal , the European Climate Pact and the European Biodiversity Strategy for 2030. The overall driving concept is that citizens and civil society have a central role in the definition of environmental protection and climate action and their direct involvement is essential to drive a true shift and promotion of changes of behaviors towards more sustainable patterns. I-CHANGE represents a change of paradigm achievable through a multi-disciplinary and participatory approach: improvement of data usability - citizen awareness raises through the observation of the environmental impacts of human activities; active participation of citizens - the active involvement of citizens through a set of Living Labs (LLs) located in different socio-economic contexts (Europe, Middle-East and Africa); climate change awareness - the development of clear understanding for citizens of the scientific processes underlying climate change and environmental protections. First year of I-CHANGE activities will be presented and discussed.</p>
The current and projected regional climate may strain investments in crop and livestock productio... more The current and projected regional climate may strain investments in crop and livestock production systems, fisheries, and other water [natural] resources management in sub-Saharan Africa. Meanwhile, changes in some oceanic parameters across the Atlantic Ocean may lead to remarkably high vulnerability of coastal ecosystem, littorals, and the mangroves towards the mid-21st Century and beyond. Here, we identify the priority needs for adaptation and well-fitted adaptation options, deemed sustainable over the future climate, clean and low-cost in line with the countries' green economic emergence goals. Based on field evidence and customized simulation designs, the cost of these adaptation measures may likely decrease and benefit sustainable green growth in agriculture, water resources management, and coastal ecosystems of West Africa as hydroclimatic hazards grow to include pluviometric and thermal extremes. These adaption actions can be operationalized using sovereign wealth funds ...
L'analyse de la pluviométrie en zone sahélienne montre qu'à partir des années 1990, les s... more L'analyse de la pluviométrie en zone sahélienne montre qu'à partir des années 1990, les saisons pluvieuses présentent un caractère mixte d'évènements extrêmes pluviométriques (SALACK et al.,2016). Outre des pluies intenses, la distribution des évènements pluvieux est jalonnée de longues poches de sécheresse en début ou en fin de saison. Ces évènements erratiques, associés à la distribution de la pluviométrie intra-saisonnière, peuvent avoir des impacts très sévères sur les systèmes de production agricole. Considérés comme des ' extrêmes pluviométriques ', ils peuvent également créer des conditions extrêmement contraignantes pour les producteurs dans la gestion et la planification de leurs travaux agricoles. Les extrêmes pluviométriques les plus récurrents au Sahel sont les ' faux-départs de saison agricole ', les pauses pluviométriques extrêmes, les pluies diluviennes et les fins précoces de saison des pluies. L'occurrence d'un de ces facteurs ou la combinaison de plusieurs d'entre eux au cours d'une saison culturale complique la planification et la gestion de l'agriculture de subsistance des petites exploitations familiales. De tous les extrêmes pluviométriques, les faux-départs (FD) des saisons font l'objet d'une attention particulière en raison de leur rôle dans la qualité de la saison agricole
(Estimating climate variability and change; CLIMATE IMPACTS PREDICTION SYSTEMS) Crop-climate ense... more (Estimating climate variability and change; CLIMATE IMPACTS PREDICTION SYSTEMS) Crop-climate ensemble scenarios to narrow uncertainty in the evaluation of climate change impacts on agricultural production
Risques climatiques et agriculture en Afrique de l’Ouest, 2020
L'analyse de la pluviometrie en zone sahelienne montre qu'a partir des annees 1990, les s... more L'analyse de la pluviometrie en zone sahelienne montre qu'a partir des annees 1990, les saisons pluvieuses presentent un caractere mixte d'evenements extremes pluviometriques (SALACK et al.,2016). Outre des pluies intenses, la distribution des evenements pluvieux est jalonnee de longues poches de secheresse en debut ou en fin de saison. Ces evenements erratiques, associes a la distribution de la pluviometrie intra-saisonniere, peuvent avoir des impacts tres severes sur les systemes de production agricole. Consideres comme des ' extremes pluviometriques ', ils peuvent egalement creer des conditions extremement contraignantes pour les producteurs dans la gestion et la planification de leurs travaux agricoles. Les extremes pluviometriques les plus recurrents au Sahel sont les ' faux-departs de saison agricole ', les pauses pluviometriques extremes, les pluies diluviennes et les fins precoces de saison des pluies. L'occurrence d'un de ces facteurs ou la combinaison de plusieurs d'entre eux au cours d'une saison culturale complique la planification et la gestion de l'agriculture de subsistance des petites exploitations familiales. De tous les extremes pluviometriques, les faux-departs (FD) des saisons font l'objet d'une attention particuliere en raison de leur role dans la qualite de la saison agricole.
Risques climatiques et agriculture en Afrique de l’Ouest, 2020
L’information pluviométrique en Afrique de l’Ouest L’information pluviométrique est définie comme... more L’information pluviométrique en Afrique de l’Ouest L’information pluviométrique est définie comme la diffusion d’informations liées aux caractéristiques d’une saison (pluie, inondation, sécheresse) dans des localités de choix en direction des producteurs. Elle représente une innovation et joue un rôle très important dans la gestion des risques en agriculture (Meza et al., 2008), puisqu’elle permet non seulement d’anticiper les effets néfastes des extrêmes pluviométriques, mais aussi de prendr..
Multi-scale analyses of dry spells across Niger and SenegalThe intra-seasonal episodes of ‘‘rainl... more Multi-scale analyses of dry spells across Niger and SenegalThe intra-seasonal episodes of ‘‘rainless days’’ or dry spells are hazardous events fortraditional rainfed agriculture in the West African Sahel. The objective of this study isto identify the seasonal and multi-site distribution of dry spells (DS), their seasonalityandtheirimplicationsinlocalrainfallvariability.Theresultsdefinearegionaldryspelland show the prevalence of extreme dry spells after onset and before cessation of therainy season. These types of dry spells mark the false start of the rainy season. Dryspells 15 days (in May-June-July) and 8-14 days (in August-September) are of lowfrequency of occurrence and correlated to rainfall deficits. Periods of these types ofdryspellsinNigeraresimilartothosefoundintheNorthGuineanregionsofSenegal.Approximately a one-month lag is found between the Sahelian regions of the twocountries. The years in which extreme dry spells were found to be coherent over atleast one third of the o...
Very often than not, satellite data, re-analysis data sets, forecasts products and model outputs ... more Very often than not, satellite data, re-analysis data sets, forecasts products and model outputs have to be cross-checked for validity or performance. This small hands-on activity chapter guides you through the methods of ground-truthing using near-ground observations. Although, observations are the standard for verification but they are also full of uncertainties.
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Papers by Seyni Salack