American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 1, 2022
Seattle raised its minimum wage to as much as $11 in 2015 and as much as $13 in 2016. We use Wash... more Seattle raised its minimum wage to as much as $11 in 2015 and as much as $13 in 2016. We use Washington State administrative data to conduct two complementary analyses of its impact. Relative to outlying regions of the state identified by the synthetic control method, aggregate employment at wages less than twice the original minimum—measured by total hours worked—declined. A portion of this reduction reflects jobs transitioning to wages above the threshold; the aggregate analysis likely overstates employment effects. Longitudinal analysis of individual Seattle workers matched to counterparts in outlying regions reveals no change in the probability of continued employment but significant reductions in hours, particularly for less experienced workers. Job turnover declined, as did hiring of new workers into low-wage jobs. Analyses suggest aggregate employment elasticities in the range of —0.2 to —2.0, concentrated on the intensive margin in the short run and largest among inexperienced workers. (JEL J22, J23, J24, J31, J38, R23)
Government spending for social welfare purposes has grown rapidly in recent years as new programs... more Government spending for social welfare purposes has grown rapidly in recent years as new programs have been enacted and the benefit levels and eligibility requirements in existing programs have expanded. This chapter examines the accomplishments and problems of the income maintenance programs that attempt to guarantee income security-an acceptable and stable standard of living. These programs reduce poverty facilitate access to essential goods and services and cushion disruptions in household income flows. However they deal differently with people having the same needs but different charateristics and they discourage work. Some suggestions are offered for reforming income maintenance programs that can correct some of the deficiencies of current programs while preserving their accomplishments. (authors)
Demand for livestock products, including poultry, is expanding in West Africa as a result of popu... more Demand for livestock products, including poultry, is expanding in West Africa as a result of population growth, increased urbanization, and rising incomes. Trade liberalization has had differing effects on poultry markets in the region, with some countries experiencing large import flows of frozen poultry from the European Union and others receiving very little. A 2005 analysis from the Pro-Poor Livestock Policy Initiative of the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) concluded that overall, West Africa did not have a comparative advantage in the global poultry trade.1 The West African poultry sector faces high production costs, safety concerns due to lack of sanitary controls, and technical constraints in processing and marketing. In addition to biological issues, the lack of breeders, marketing, and processing technology present technical constraints to poultry sector growth.2
In this study, we analyzed whether parents’ receipt of welfare affects children’s educational att... more In this study, we analyzed whether parents’ receipt of welfare affects children’s educational attainment in early adulthood, independent of its effect through changing family income. We used data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics with information on parents’ welfare receipt over the first 15 years of childhood. Cross-sectional results show that greater exposure to welfare is significantly associated with children’s poorer educational attainment. Family fixed-effect regressions also indicate a negative effect of exposure to welfare, but its overall pattern is less consistent. Although exposure to welfare in early childhood has no effect, in adolescence and, to a lesser degree, in middle childhood, its effect is often negative.
Over the period from 1900 to 1990 there was no trend in income inequality. Inequality was high an... more Over the period from 1900 to 1990 there was no trend in income inequality. Inequality was high and rising during the first three decades of the century and peaked during the Depression. It fell sharply during World War I1 and remained at the lower level in the 1950s and 1960s. In the 1970s and 1980s it rose rapidly to pre-WWII levels. The rate of poverty exhibited a long-run downward trend from about 80 percent in 1900 to the 12 to 14 percent range in recent years. There was considerable fluctuation around this secular trend. Changes in inequality were largely produced by demographic changes, the growth and decline of various industries, changes in patterns of international trade, and World War 11. Economic growth, demographic change, unemployment, and inflation were the primary drivers of the rate of poverty. Public policy has reduced the marketgenerated level of inequality, but since 1950 has had little effect on the trend in inequality. Prior to 1950, the growth of government, an...
of California and the University of Washington for their comments. IRP publications (discussion p... more of California and the University of Washington for their comments. IRP publications (discussion papers, special reports, and the newsletter Focus) are now available on the Internet. The IRP Web site can be accessed at the following address:
Using data collected in 2000 on a racially and ethnically diverse sample of high school seniors (... more Using data collected in 2000 on a racially and ethnically diverse sample of high school seniors (typically 17-18 years old), this study analyzes teenagers' expectations and desires about marriage, having children, and becoming unwed parents. The study is the first to examine all six outcomes with a common conceptual framework and data set. The conceptual framework combines family context, opportunity cost, and social-psychological perspectives. Each perspective has predictive power. Race, ethnicity, gender, type of religious upbringing, parental education, and parental expectations for their child's education are aspects of family context that consistently show significant relationships with expectations and desires. Adolescents with higher opportunity costs - as indicated by having better grades and higher expectations and aspirations for their schooling - expect and desire to marry and have children at older ages. This finding should be regarded cautiously because there is...
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 1, 2022
Seattle raised its minimum wage to as much as $11 in 2015 and as much as $13 in 2016. We use Wash... more Seattle raised its minimum wage to as much as $11 in 2015 and as much as $13 in 2016. We use Washington State administrative data to conduct two complementary analyses of its impact. Relative to outlying regions of the state identified by the synthetic control method, aggregate employment at wages less than twice the original minimum—measured by total hours worked—declined. A portion of this reduction reflects jobs transitioning to wages above the threshold; the aggregate analysis likely overstates employment effects. Longitudinal analysis of individual Seattle workers matched to counterparts in outlying regions reveals no change in the probability of continued employment but significant reductions in hours, particularly for less experienced workers. Job turnover declined, as did hiring of new workers into low-wage jobs. Analyses suggest aggregate employment elasticities in the range of —0.2 to —2.0, concentrated on the intensive margin in the short run and largest among inexperienced workers. (JEL J22, J23, J24, J31, J38, R23)
Government spending for social welfare purposes has grown rapidly in recent years as new programs... more Government spending for social welfare purposes has grown rapidly in recent years as new programs have been enacted and the benefit levels and eligibility requirements in existing programs have expanded. This chapter examines the accomplishments and problems of the income maintenance programs that attempt to guarantee income security-an acceptable and stable standard of living. These programs reduce poverty facilitate access to essential goods and services and cushion disruptions in household income flows. However they deal differently with people having the same needs but different charateristics and they discourage work. Some suggestions are offered for reforming income maintenance programs that can correct some of the deficiencies of current programs while preserving their accomplishments. (authors)
Demand for livestock products, including poultry, is expanding in West Africa as a result of popu... more Demand for livestock products, including poultry, is expanding in West Africa as a result of population growth, increased urbanization, and rising incomes. Trade liberalization has had differing effects on poultry markets in the region, with some countries experiencing large import flows of frozen poultry from the European Union and others receiving very little. A 2005 analysis from the Pro-Poor Livestock Policy Initiative of the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) concluded that overall, West Africa did not have a comparative advantage in the global poultry trade.1 The West African poultry sector faces high production costs, safety concerns due to lack of sanitary controls, and technical constraints in processing and marketing. In addition to biological issues, the lack of breeders, marketing, and processing technology present technical constraints to poultry sector growth.2
In this study, we analyzed whether parents’ receipt of welfare affects children’s educational att... more In this study, we analyzed whether parents’ receipt of welfare affects children’s educational attainment in early adulthood, independent of its effect through changing family income. We used data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics with information on parents’ welfare receipt over the first 15 years of childhood. Cross-sectional results show that greater exposure to welfare is significantly associated with children’s poorer educational attainment. Family fixed-effect regressions also indicate a negative effect of exposure to welfare, but its overall pattern is less consistent. Although exposure to welfare in early childhood has no effect, in adolescence and, to a lesser degree, in middle childhood, its effect is often negative.
Over the period from 1900 to 1990 there was no trend in income inequality. Inequality was high an... more Over the period from 1900 to 1990 there was no trend in income inequality. Inequality was high and rising during the first three decades of the century and peaked during the Depression. It fell sharply during World War I1 and remained at the lower level in the 1950s and 1960s. In the 1970s and 1980s it rose rapidly to pre-WWII levels. The rate of poverty exhibited a long-run downward trend from about 80 percent in 1900 to the 12 to 14 percent range in recent years. There was considerable fluctuation around this secular trend. Changes in inequality were largely produced by demographic changes, the growth and decline of various industries, changes in patterns of international trade, and World War 11. Economic growth, demographic change, unemployment, and inflation were the primary drivers of the rate of poverty. Public policy has reduced the marketgenerated level of inequality, but since 1950 has had little effect on the trend in inequality. Prior to 1950, the growth of government, an...
of California and the University of Washington for their comments. IRP publications (discussion p... more of California and the University of Washington for their comments. IRP publications (discussion papers, special reports, and the newsletter Focus) are now available on the Internet. The IRP Web site can be accessed at the following address:
Using data collected in 2000 on a racially and ethnically diverse sample of high school seniors (... more Using data collected in 2000 on a racially and ethnically diverse sample of high school seniors (typically 17-18 years old), this study analyzes teenagers' expectations and desires about marriage, having children, and becoming unwed parents. The study is the first to examine all six outcomes with a common conceptual framework and data set. The conceptual framework combines family context, opportunity cost, and social-psychological perspectives. Each perspective has predictive power. Race, ethnicity, gender, type of religious upbringing, parental education, and parental expectations for their child's education are aspects of family context that consistently show significant relationships with expectations and desires. Adolescents with higher opportunity costs - as indicated by having better grades and higher expectations and aspirations for their schooling - expect and desire to marry and have children at older ages. This finding should be regarded cautiously because there is...
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Papers by Robert Plotnick