The role of trade policy for economic growth is a constant cause for dispute in academic as well ... more The role of trade policy for economic growth is a constant cause for dispute in academic as well as in public policy discussions. While the institutions behind the so-called “Washington Consensus” recommend trade liberalization for modern developing countries, anti-globalization activists and political leaders in many developing countries argue that (selective) trade protection can be good for growth. Both political arguments can be backed by theories of international trade, depending on the underlying assumptions on economic ...
Abstract: Truly revolutionary changes to an industry are extremely rare. Even rarer is to have hi... more Abstract: Truly revolutionary changes to an industry are extremely rare. Even rarer is to have high quality micro-level data documenting such an episode. The late nineteenth century Danish agricultural revolution, which saw the modernization and rapid growth of the dairy industry, was one such episode. Moreover, data exist which allow us to use the tool of modern agricultural economists, stochastic frontier analysis, to estimate production functions for milk and thus identify the determinants of these productivity and efficiency advances. ...
The Cobden-Chevalier-Treaty (1860) closed by France and the UK in 1860 was succeeded by more than... more The Cobden-Chevalier-Treaty (1860) closed by France and the UK in 1860 was succeeded by more than fifty bilateral treaties of similar form and content. Its outstanding importance stems from the share of its members in world trade and from its institutionalisation: in difference ...
Die im Doktorandenforum vorgestellte kumulative Dissertation untersucht empirisch die Strukturdet... more Die im Doktorandenforum vorgestellte kumulative Dissertation untersucht empirisch die Strukturdeterminanten und Wirkungen des aus mehr als 50 bilateralen Handelsverträgen bestehenden Cobden-Chevalier-Netzwerks, das in den 1860er und 1870er Jahren in Europa entstand und den historisch herausragenden Fall eines dezentralen Regimes zur Handelsliberalisierung darstellt.
This paper reviews the evolution of Spanish housing markets from 1904 to 1934. To do so, we const... more This paper reviews the evolution of Spanish housing markets from 1904 to 1934. To do so, we construct a new hedonic index of real housing prices for Spain and its provinces. We found that real housing prices grew slightly over the entire period and that regional housing markets were not integrated. Furthermore, we also found that bubbles were relatively common and were by nature local.
This paper discusses how Spain's urban housing markets reacted to the far-reaching changes t... more This paper discusses how Spain's urban housing markets reacted to the far-reaching changes that affected the demand for dwellings during the first phase of the ruralurban transition process. To this end, we construct a new hedonic index of real housing prices and assemble a cross-regional panel dataset of price fundamentals. The results of our econometric analysis suggest that urban housing markets did not face supply constraints and responded swiftly to the growing demand for accommodation. In light of this new ...
(with Paul Sharp) The success of Danish agricultural exports at the end of the nineteenth century... more (with Paul Sharp) The success of Danish agricultural exports at the end of the nineteenth century is often attributed to the establishment of a direct trade with Britain. Previously, exports went mostly via Hamburg, but this changed with the loss of Schleswig and Holstein to Prussia in the war of 1864. After this, quantity and price data imply narrowing price gaps and thus imply gains for Danish producers. Why then did Denmark not discover the British market earlier? We show that butter markets in both countries were integrated in the eighteenth century, but through the Hamburg hub. We then demonstrate that there were sound economic reasons for this well into the nineteenth century. However, movements to establish a direct trade were afoot from the 1850s. Thus, although the war certainly gave an extra boost to the processprocess, the shock from the loss of the Duchies was not necessary for the future Danish success.
During the decades previous to the Civil War, Spain experienced a rapid process of urbanization, ... more During the decades previous to the Civil War, Spain experienced a rapid process of urbanization, which was accompanied by the demographic transition and sizeable rural-urban migrations. This article investigates how urban housing markets reacted to these far-reaching changes that increased demand for dwellings. To this end, we employ a new hedonic index of real housing prices and construct a cross-regional panel dataset of rents and housing price fundamentals. This new evidence indicates that rents were not a significant financial burden on low-income families and, hence, housing was affordable for working classes. Also, we show that families' access to new homes was facilitated by a sizable growth of housing supply. Substantial investments in urban infrastructure and the institutional framework enabled the construction of new homes at affordable prices. Our results suggest that housing problems were not pervasive during the urban transition as the literature often seems to claim.
(with Paul Sharp; forthcoming in Economic History Review) The late nineteenth century Danish agri... more (with Paul Sharp; forthcoming in Economic History Review) The late nineteenth century Danish agricultural revolution saw the modernization and growth of the dairy industry. Denmark rapidly caught up with the leading economies, and Danish dairying led the world in terms of productivity. Uniquely in a world perspective, high quality micro-level data exist documenting this episode. These allow the use of the tool of modern agricultural economists, stochastic frontier analysis, to estimate production functions for milk and thus find the determinants of these productivity and efficiency advances. We identify the contribution of modernization through specific new technologies and practices. (formerly known as "The Productivity and Efficiency Effects of Revolutionary Change in Agriculture")
After postulating the relevance of information for trade costs we outline the rise of internation... more After postulating the relevance of information for trade costs we outline the rise of international communication networks (mail, telegraph, telephone) during the first globalisation of the long nineteenth century. In this period, global communications systems for the first time in history provided universal access to affordable and reliable means of communication. Using a new set of internationally comparable data on global postal flows, we analyse basic determinants of international information exchange and conclude by outlining a research agenda that links these to international trade patterns and knowledge transfer between countries.
(forthcoming in: Claude Diebolt and Michael Haupert (eds.), Handbook of Cliometrics, Heidelberg: ... more (forthcoming in: Claude Diebolt and Michael Haupert (eds.), Handbook of Cliometrics, Heidelberg: Springer; with P. Sharp) - This chapter gives a broad overview of the literature on the cliometrics of international trade and market integration. We start by motivating this by looking at the lessons from economic theory, and in particular through the work which considers the effect of trade, openness, and trade policy on growth. Here theory, as well as empirical results, suggests no clear cut relationship and point to the richness of historical experiences. We then turn to the issue of how to quantify trade and market integration. The former usually relies on customs records, and the latter on the availability of prices in different markets. We then go one step back and look at the determinants of trade, usually tested within the framework of the gravity equation, and discuss what factors were behind periods of trade increases and declines, and of market integration and disintegration. Finally, as one of the most important determinants of trade, and perhaps the most policy relevant, we include a separate section on trade policy: we both consider the difficulties of constructing a simple quantitative measure, and look at what might explain it.
(with Paul Sharp) This article considers an example of the impact of a new good on producers of c... more (with Paul Sharp) This article considers an example of the impact of a new good on producers of close substitutes: the invention of margarine and its rapid introduction into the British market from the mid-1870s. This presented a challenge to the traditional suppliers of that market, butter producers from different European countries. We argue that the capacity to react quickly to the appearance of this cheap substitute by improving quality and establishing product differentiation was critical for the fortunes of butter producers. This is illustrated by a discussion of the different reactions to margarine and quality upgrading in Ireland, Denmark, and the Netherlands. A statistical analysis using monthly data for Britain from 1881–7 confirms that margarine had a greater impact on the price of poor quality butter than that of high quality butter, presumably because it was a stronger substitute.
This article makes the first systematic attempt to analyse quantitatively the evolution of Spanis... more This article makes the first systematic attempt to analyse quantitatively the evolution of Spanish housing markets from 1904 to 1934, a period of dramatic changes in housing demand as a consequence of substantial income and demographic growth. In order to do so, we collect a new database on houses sold and their prices using data from the Registrar's Yearbooks. Furthermore, we construct a new hedonic index of real housing prices for Spain and its provinces. To our surprise, we found that real housing prices rose slightly over the entire period and, hence, that housing supply responded effectively to new demand for housing.
Markus Lampe, Universidad Carlos III Madrid og Paul Sharp, Syddansk Universitet; Tidsskrift for L... more Markus Lampe, Universidad Carlos III Madrid og Paul Sharp, Syddansk Universitet; Tidsskrift for Landøkonomi 200 (1), 2014, pp. 91-100 (200 years anniversary edition of one of the oldest still existing economics journals in the world).
Abstract: We argue for a new approach to examining the relationship between tariffs and growth. W... more Abstract: We argue for a new approach to examining the relationship between tariffs and growth. We demonstrate that more can be learned from time series analyses of the experience of individual countries rather than the usual panel data approach, which imposes a causal relation and presents an average coefficient for all countries. Tentative initial results using simple two variable cointegrated VAR models suggest considerable heterogeneity in the experiences of the countries we look at.
(with Antonio Tena-Junguito and Felipe Fernandes Tâmega) The Cobden-Chevalier Treaty of 1860 is r... more (with Antonio Tena-Junguito and Felipe Fernandes Tâmega) The Cobden-Chevalier Treaty of 1860 is regarded as central turning point in nineteenth-century trade policy, inaugurating a free trade era in Western Europe. We reexamine this story and put it into global perspective with a new database covering more than 7,500 data points for 11 categories of manufactures in 41 countries and colonies around the world between 1846 and 1880. It reveals that bilateralism after 1860 reinforced a process already underway before. Nevertheless, we highlight that trade liberalization was a global phenomenon over most of our period, so that the prominent British case appears as typical rather than exceptional.
This paper discusses how Spain’s housing markets reacted to the far-reaching changes that affecte... more This paper discusses how Spain’s housing markets reacted to the far-reaching changes that affected the demand for dwellings during the first phase of the rural-urban transition process. To this end, we construct a new hedonic index of real housing prices and assemble a cross-regional panel dataset of price fundamentals. The results of our econometric analysis suggest that housing markets did not face supply constraints, responded swiftly to the growing demand for accommodation and were efficient. In light of this new evidence, we conclude that housing markets were not a burden for Spanish economic development and that Spain’s institutional and regulatory frameworks were suitable for the housing needs at the time.
The usual story of the “first era of globalization” at the end of the nineteenth century sees Den... more The usual story of the “first era of globalization” at the end of the nineteenth century sees Denmark as something as an outlier: a country which, like Britain, resisted the globalization backlash in the wake of the inflow of cheap grain from the New World, but where agriculture, rather than going into decline, in fact flourished. Key to the success of Danish agriculture was an early diversification towards dairy production. We dispute this simple story which sees Denmark as something of a liberal paragon. Denmark’s success owed much to a prudent use of trade policy which favoured dairy production. Moreover, this favouritism continued even after a more general movement to free trade in the 1860s. Using micro‐level data from individual dairies, we quantify the implied subsidy to dairy production from the tariffs, and demonstrate that this in many cases ensured the profitability of individual dairies.
We consider the relative contributions of changing technology and institutions for economic growt... more We consider the relative contributions of changing technology and institutions for economic growth through the investigation of a natural experiment in history: the almost simultaneous introduction of the automatic cream separator and the cooperative ownership form in the Danish dairy industry from around 1880. Using a new database of statistics from creameries and the tool of stochastic frontier analysis, we find that both institutions and technology were important for the success of the Danish dairy industry and, by implication, the growth and early development of the Danish economy.
We examine the case of an important outsider to the Cobden‐Chevalier network of bilateral treatie... more We examine the case of an important outsider to the Cobden‐Chevalier network of bilateral treaties in the second half of the nineteenth century. We attempt to explain this through a study of the structure of Danish trade and protection. We demonstrate, in contrast to previous accounts that have considered Danish trade policy somewhat irrational, that Denmark was right to remain outside. She had little to gain from concluding treaties, since her main trading partners offered free trade for her exports, agricultural goods, and she needed her own tariffs for revenue purposes.
The role of trade policy for economic growth is a constant cause for dispute in academic as well ... more The role of trade policy for economic growth is a constant cause for dispute in academic as well as in public policy discussions. While the institutions behind the so-called “Washington Consensus” recommend trade liberalization for modern developing countries, anti-globalization activists and political leaders in many developing countries argue that (selective) trade protection can be good for growth. Both political arguments can be backed by theories of international trade, depending on the underlying assumptions on economic ...
Abstract: Truly revolutionary changes to an industry are extremely rare. Even rarer is to have hi... more Abstract: Truly revolutionary changes to an industry are extremely rare. Even rarer is to have high quality micro-level data documenting such an episode. The late nineteenth century Danish agricultural revolution, which saw the modernization and rapid growth of the dairy industry, was one such episode. Moreover, data exist which allow us to use the tool of modern agricultural economists, stochastic frontier analysis, to estimate production functions for milk and thus identify the determinants of these productivity and efficiency advances. ...
The Cobden-Chevalier-Treaty (1860) closed by France and the UK in 1860 was succeeded by more than... more The Cobden-Chevalier-Treaty (1860) closed by France and the UK in 1860 was succeeded by more than fifty bilateral treaties of similar form and content. Its outstanding importance stems from the share of its members in world trade and from its institutionalisation: in difference ...
Die im Doktorandenforum vorgestellte kumulative Dissertation untersucht empirisch die Strukturdet... more Die im Doktorandenforum vorgestellte kumulative Dissertation untersucht empirisch die Strukturdeterminanten und Wirkungen des aus mehr als 50 bilateralen Handelsverträgen bestehenden Cobden-Chevalier-Netzwerks, das in den 1860er und 1870er Jahren in Europa entstand und den historisch herausragenden Fall eines dezentralen Regimes zur Handelsliberalisierung darstellt.
This paper reviews the evolution of Spanish housing markets from 1904 to 1934. To do so, we const... more This paper reviews the evolution of Spanish housing markets from 1904 to 1934. To do so, we construct a new hedonic index of real housing prices for Spain and its provinces. We found that real housing prices grew slightly over the entire period and that regional housing markets were not integrated. Furthermore, we also found that bubbles were relatively common and were by nature local.
This paper discusses how Spain's urban housing markets reacted to the far-reaching changes t... more This paper discusses how Spain's urban housing markets reacted to the far-reaching changes that affected the demand for dwellings during the first phase of the ruralurban transition process. To this end, we construct a new hedonic index of real housing prices and assemble a cross-regional panel dataset of price fundamentals. The results of our econometric analysis suggest that urban housing markets did not face supply constraints and responded swiftly to the growing demand for accommodation. In light of this new ...
(with Paul Sharp) The success of Danish agricultural exports at the end of the nineteenth century... more (with Paul Sharp) The success of Danish agricultural exports at the end of the nineteenth century is often attributed to the establishment of a direct trade with Britain. Previously, exports went mostly via Hamburg, but this changed with the loss of Schleswig and Holstein to Prussia in the war of 1864. After this, quantity and price data imply narrowing price gaps and thus imply gains for Danish producers. Why then did Denmark not discover the British market earlier? We show that butter markets in both countries were integrated in the eighteenth century, but through the Hamburg hub. We then demonstrate that there were sound economic reasons for this well into the nineteenth century. However, movements to establish a direct trade were afoot from the 1850s. Thus, although the war certainly gave an extra boost to the processprocess, the shock from the loss of the Duchies was not necessary for the future Danish success.
During the decades previous to the Civil War, Spain experienced a rapid process of urbanization, ... more During the decades previous to the Civil War, Spain experienced a rapid process of urbanization, which was accompanied by the demographic transition and sizeable rural-urban migrations. This article investigates how urban housing markets reacted to these far-reaching changes that increased demand for dwellings. To this end, we employ a new hedonic index of real housing prices and construct a cross-regional panel dataset of rents and housing price fundamentals. This new evidence indicates that rents were not a significant financial burden on low-income families and, hence, housing was affordable for working classes. Also, we show that families' access to new homes was facilitated by a sizable growth of housing supply. Substantial investments in urban infrastructure and the institutional framework enabled the construction of new homes at affordable prices. Our results suggest that housing problems were not pervasive during the urban transition as the literature often seems to claim.
(with Paul Sharp; forthcoming in Economic History Review) The late nineteenth century Danish agri... more (with Paul Sharp; forthcoming in Economic History Review) The late nineteenth century Danish agricultural revolution saw the modernization and growth of the dairy industry. Denmark rapidly caught up with the leading economies, and Danish dairying led the world in terms of productivity. Uniquely in a world perspective, high quality micro-level data exist documenting this episode. These allow the use of the tool of modern agricultural economists, stochastic frontier analysis, to estimate production functions for milk and thus find the determinants of these productivity and efficiency advances. We identify the contribution of modernization through specific new technologies and practices. (formerly known as "The Productivity and Efficiency Effects of Revolutionary Change in Agriculture")
After postulating the relevance of information for trade costs we outline the rise of internation... more After postulating the relevance of information for trade costs we outline the rise of international communication networks (mail, telegraph, telephone) during the first globalisation of the long nineteenth century. In this period, global communications systems for the first time in history provided universal access to affordable and reliable means of communication. Using a new set of internationally comparable data on global postal flows, we analyse basic determinants of international information exchange and conclude by outlining a research agenda that links these to international trade patterns and knowledge transfer between countries.
(forthcoming in: Claude Diebolt and Michael Haupert (eds.), Handbook of Cliometrics, Heidelberg: ... more (forthcoming in: Claude Diebolt and Michael Haupert (eds.), Handbook of Cliometrics, Heidelberg: Springer; with P. Sharp) - This chapter gives a broad overview of the literature on the cliometrics of international trade and market integration. We start by motivating this by looking at the lessons from economic theory, and in particular through the work which considers the effect of trade, openness, and trade policy on growth. Here theory, as well as empirical results, suggests no clear cut relationship and point to the richness of historical experiences. We then turn to the issue of how to quantify trade and market integration. The former usually relies on customs records, and the latter on the availability of prices in different markets. We then go one step back and look at the determinants of trade, usually tested within the framework of the gravity equation, and discuss what factors were behind periods of trade increases and declines, and of market integration and disintegration. Finally, as one of the most important determinants of trade, and perhaps the most policy relevant, we include a separate section on trade policy: we both consider the difficulties of constructing a simple quantitative measure, and look at what might explain it.
(with Paul Sharp) This article considers an example of the impact of a new good on producers of c... more (with Paul Sharp) This article considers an example of the impact of a new good on producers of close substitutes: the invention of margarine and its rapid introduction into the British market from the mid-1870s. This presented a challenge to the traditional suppliers of that market, butter producers from different European countries. We argue that the capacity to react quickly to the appearance of this cheap substitute by improving quality and establishing product differentiation was critical for the fortunes of butter producers. This is illustrated by a discussion of the different reactions to margarine and quality upgrading in Ireland, Denmark, and the Netherlands. A statistical analysis using monthly data for Britain from 1881–7 confirms that margarine had a greater impact on the price of poor quality butter than that of high quality butter, presumably because it was a stronger substitute.
This article makes the first systematic attempt to analyse quantitatively the evolution of Spanis... more This article makes the first systematic attempt to analyse quantitatively the evolution of Spanish housing markets from 1904 to 1934, a period of dramatic changes in housing demand as a consequence of substantial income and demographic growth. In order to do so, we collect a new database on houses sold and their prices using data from the Registrar's Yearbooks. Furthermore, we construct a new hedonic index of real housing prices for Spain and its provinces. To our surprise, we found that real housing prices rose slightly over the entire period and, hence, that housing supply responded effectively to new demand for housing.
Markus Lampe, Universidad Carlos III Madrid og Paul Sharp, Syddansk Universitet; Tidsskrift for L... more Markus Lampe, Universidad Carlos III Madrid og Paul Sharp, Syddansk Universitet; Tidsskrift for Landøkonomi 200 (1), 2014, pp. 91-100 (200 years anniversary edition of one of the oldest still existing economics journals in the world).
Abstract: We argue for a new approach to examining the relationship between tariffs and growth. W... more Abstract: We argue for a new approach to examining the relationship between tariffs and growth. We demonstrate that more can be learned from time series analyses of the experience of individual countries rather than the usual panel data approach, which imposes a causal relation and presents an average coefficient for all countries. Tentative initial results using simple two variable cointegrated VAR models suggest considerable heterogeneity in the experiences of the countries we look at.
(with Antonio Tena-Junguito and Felipe Fernandes Tâmega) The Cobden-Chevalier Treaty of 1860 is r... more (with Antonio Tena-Junguito and Felipe Fernandes Tâmega) The Cobden-Chevalier Treaty of 1860 is regarded as central turning point in nineteenth-century trade policy, inaugurating a free trade era in Western Europe. We reexamine this story and put it into global perspective with a new database covering more than 7,500 data points for 11 categories of manufactures in 41 countries and colonies around the world between 1846 and 1880. It reveals that bilateralism after 1860 reinforced a process already underway before. Nevertheless, we highlight that trade liberalization was a global phenomenon over most of our period, so that the prominent British case appears as typical rather than exceptional.
This paper discusses how Spain’s housing markets reacted to the far-reaching changes that affecte... more This paper discusses how Spain’s housing markets reacted to the far-reaching changes that affected the demand for dwellings during the first phase of the rural-urban transition process. To this end, we construct a new hedonic index of real housing prices and assemble a cross-regional panel dataset of price fundamentals. The results of our econometric analysis suggest that housing markets did not face supply constraints, responded swiftly to the growing demand for accommodation and were efficient. In light of this new evidence, we conclude that housing markets were not a burden for Spanish economic development and that Spain’s institutional and regulatory frameworks were suitable for the housing needs at the time.
The usual story of the “first era of globalization” at the end of the nineteenth century sees Den... more The usual story of the “first era of globalization” at the end of the nineteenth century sees Denmark as something as an outlier: a country which, like Britain, resisted the globalization backlash in the wake of the inflow of cheap grain from the New World, but where agriculture, rather than going into decline, in fact flourished. Key to the success of Danish agriculture was an early diversification towards dairy production. We dispute this simple story which sees Denmark as something of a liberal paragon. Denmark’s success owed much to a prudent use of trade policy which favoured dairy production. Moreover, this favouritism continued even after a more general movement to free trade in the 1860s. Using micro‐level data from individual dairies, we quantify the implied subsidy to dairy production from the tariffs, and demonstrate that this in many cases ensured the profitability of individual dairies.
We consider the relative contributions of changing technology and institutions for economic growt... more We consider the relative contributions of changing technology and institutions for economic growth through the investigation of a natural experiment in history: the almost simultaneous introduction of the automatic cream separator and the cooperative ownership form in the Danish dairy industry from around 1880. Using a new database of statistics from creameries and the tool of stochastic frontier analysis, we find that both institutions and technology were important for the success of the Danish dairy industry and, by implication, the growth and early development of the Danish economy.
We examine the case of an important outsider to the Cobden‐Chevalier network of bilateral treatie... more We examine the case of an important outsider to the Cobden‐Chevalier network of bilateral treaties in the second half of the nineteenth century. We attempt to explain this through a study of the structure of Danish trade and protection. We demonstrate, in contrast to previous accounts that have considered Danish trade policy somewhat irrational, that Denmark was right to remain outside. She had little to gain from concluding treaties, since her main trading partners offered free trade for her exports, agricultural goods, and she needed her own tariffs for revenue purposes.
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