Studies in Theoretical and Applied Statistics Selected Papers of the Statistical Societies Series Editors Societa Italiana di Statistica (SIS) Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research (SEIO) Société Française de Statistique (SFdS) Sociedade Portuguesa de Estatfstica (SPE) Federation of European National Statistical Societies (FENStatS) More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/10104 Maurizio Carpita  Eugenio Brentari El Mostafa Qannari Editors Advances in Latent Variables Methods, Models and Applications 123 Editors Maurizio Carpita University of Brescia Dept. of Economics and Management Brescia Italy El Mostafa Qannari Oniris Nantes National College Dept. of Chemometrics and Sensometrics Nantes France Eugenio Brentari University of Brescia Dept. of Economics and Management Brescia Italy ISSN 2194-7767 ISSN 2194-7775 (electronic) ISBN 978-3-319-02966-5 ISBN 978-3-319-02967-2 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-02967-2 Springer Cham Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London Library of Congress Control Number: 2015934840 © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. Exempted from this legal reservation are brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis or material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the Copyright Law of the Publisher’s location, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Permissions for use may be obtained through RightsLink at the Copyright Clearance Center. Violations are liable to prosecution under the respective Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. While the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication, neither the authors nor the editors nor the publisher can accept any legal responsibility for any errors or omissions that may be made. The publisher makes no warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com) Preface The Italian Statistical Society (Società Italiana di Statistica - SIS) promotes every 2 years an international specialized statistical conference. The meeting focuses on both methodological and applied statistical research. The SIS 2013 Statistical Conference “Advances in Latent Variables. Methods, Models and Applications”, held in June 19–21, 2013 at the Department of Economics and Management of the University of Brescia, focused on advances in statistical methods and models for analyses with unobservable variables. Recently, an increasing interest has been devoted to this topic, from both methodological and applied points of view. Indeed, the latent variable approach allows us to effectively model complex real-life phenomena in a wide range of research fields. The SIS 2013 Statistical Conference brought together statisticians from different research fields who exchanged experiences related to the analysis of latent variables and to the investigation of the relationships among them. The meeting was attended by 317 Italian and foreign scholars, who proposed 205 papers, which were accepted after a review process and presented in different sessions of the conference (5 plenary, 1 invited, 22 specialized, 16 solicited, 12 spontaneous and 1 poster). During the 3 days of the meeting, several special events took place: a special track on “Space and Space–Time Models: Methods and Environmental Applications” organized by the GRASPA-SIS group and devoted to the environmental statistics, the “Sensory Sessions” organized by the “Centro Studi Assaggiatori di Brescia” and the “International Academy of Sensory Analysis”, the invited session on “Latent Models” organized by the Federation of European National Statistical Societies (FENStatS), and “The BES Day” on the measure of equitable and sustainable wellbeing organized by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istituto Nazionale di Statistica - ISTAT). The 25 papers included in this book were selected from 38 extended versions presented at the SIS 2013 Meeting. A careful double-blind review process was adopted. We are grateful to the members of the Scientific Committee and to the 76 referees for their very helpful assistance. For convenience, the volume is organized v vi Preface in seven parts: these only serve to orient the reader since methods, models and applications presented in the 25 papers overlap in some cases. Finally, we would like to thank Alice Blanck and Carmina Cayago from Springer for their valued assistance in preparing this volume. Brescia, Italy Brescia, Italy Nantes, France Maurizio Carpita Eugenio Brentari El Mostafa Qannari Contents Identification of Clusters of Variables and Underlying Latent Components in Sensory Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Evelyne Vigneau 1 Clustering the Corpus of Seneca: A Lexical-Based Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gabriele Cantaluppi and Marco Passarotti 13 Modelling Correlated Consumer Preferences.. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Marcella Corduas 27 Modelling Job Satisfaction of Italian Graduates . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Stefania Capecchi and Silvia Ghiselli 37 Identification of Principal Causal Effects Using Secondary Outcomes . . . . Fabrizia Mealli, Barbara Pacini, and Elena Stanghellini 49 Dynamic Segmentation of Financial Markets: A Mixture Latent Class Markov Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Francesca Bassi 61 Latent Class Markov Models for Measuring Longitudinal Fuzzy Poverty .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Giovanni Marano, Gianni Betti, and Francesca Gagliardi 73 A Latent Class Approach for Allocation of Employees to Local Units . . . . . Davide Di Cecco, Danila Filipponi, and Irene Rocchetti 83 Finding Scientific Topics Revisited . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Martin Ponweiser, Bettina Grün, and Kurt Hornik 93 A Dirichlet Mixture Model for Compositions Allowing for Dependence on the Size. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 Andrea Ongaro and Sonia Migliorati vii viii Contents A Latent Variable Approach to Modelling Multivariate Geostatistical Skew-Normal Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 Luca Bagnato and Marco Minozzo Modelling the Length of Stay of Geriatric Patients in Emilia Romagna Hospitals Using Coxian Phase-Type Distributions with Covariates .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 Adele H. Marshall, Hannah Mitchell, and Mariangela Zenga Pathway Composite Variables: A Useful Tool for the Interpretation of Biological Pathways in the Analysis of Gene Expression Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 Daniele Pepe and Mario Grassi A Latent Growth Curve Analysis in Banking Customer Satisfaction .. . . . . 151 Caterina Liberati, Paolo Mariani, and Lucio Masserini Non-Metric PLS Path Modeling: Integration into the Labour Market of Sapienza Graduates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159 Francesca Petrarca Single-Indicator SEM with Measurement Error: Case of Klein I Model . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171 Adam Sagan and Barbara Pawełek Investigating Stock Market Behavior Using a Multivariate Markov-Switching Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185 Giuseppe Cavaliere, Michele Costa, and Luca De Angelis A Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Model for Portfolio Risk Estimation. . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197 Andrea Pierini and Antonello Maruotti A Thick Modeling Approach to Multivariate Volatility Prediction.. . . . . . . . 207 Alessandra Amendola and Giuseppe Storti Exploring Compositional Data with the Robust Compositional Biplot . . . . 219 Karel Hron and Peter Filzmoser Sparse Orthogonal Factor Analysis .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227 Kohei Adachi and Nickolay T. Trendafilov Adjustment to the Aggregate Association Index to Minimise the Impact of Large Samples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241 Eric J. Beh, Salman A. Cheema, Duy Tran, and Irene L. Hudson Graphical Latent Structure Testing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253 Robin J. Evans Contents ix Understanding Equity in Work Through Job Quality: A Comparative Analysis Between Disabled and Non-Disabled Graduates Using a New Composite Indicator.. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263 Giovanna Boccuzzo and Licia Maron Business Failure Prediction in Manufacturing: A Robust Bayesian Approach to Discriminant Scoring . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 277 Maurizio Baussola, Eleonora Bartoloni, and Aldo Corbellini