2012 – – – GLOBAL HUNGER INDEX THE CHALLENGE OF HUNGER: ENSURING SUSTAINABLE FOOD SECURITY UNDER LAND, WATER, AND ENERGY STRESSES – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 2012 GLOBAL HUNGER INDEX THE CHALLENGE OF HUNGER: ENSURING SUSTAINABLE FOOD SECURITY UNDER LAND, WATER, AND ENERGY STRESSES IFPRI: Klaus von Grebmer, Claudia Ringler, Mark W. Rosegrant, Tolulope Olofinbiyi, Doris Wiesmann, Heidi Fritschel, Ousmane Badiane, Maximo Torero, Yisehac Yohannes Concern Worldwide: Jennifer Thompson Welthungerhilfe and Green Scenery: Constanze von Oppeln, Joseph Rahall Bonn / Washington, DC / Dublin October 2012 – – – – – “An alternative vision is possible, of inclusive and sustainable growth that provides livelihoods for all, preserves the environment and is sustainable over time.” – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –2 European Report on Development, 2012 Name des Teilbereich | Chapter 1 | 2012 Global Hunger Index FOREWORD The 2012 GHI report focuses particularly on the issue of how to Is there enough planet for all of us? Recent events—drought, scrambles to invest in farmland ensure sustainable food security under conditions of water, land, and around the world, shifts in energy prices, and shocks in energy sup- energy stress. Demographic changes, rising incomes and associated plies—underline the scarcity of resources we depend on to produce consumption patterns, and climate change, alongside persistent pov- the world’s food supply. It is increasingly clear that sustainably feed- erty and inadequate policies and institutions, are all placing serious ing 9 billion people—the projected world population in 2050—who pressure on natural resources. In this report, IFPRI describes the evi- will consume at the rate of 12 billion people, if they follow the current dence on land, water, and energy scarcity in developing countries and consumption pattern of industrialized countries, will require a much offers two visions of a future global food system—an unsustainable more careful and integrated approach to the use of land, water, and scenario in which current trends in resource use continue, and a sus- energy than we currently apply. tainable scenario in which access to food, modern energy, and clean It is an absolute must that we start now to produce more food water improves significantly and ecosystem degradation is halted or using fewer resources and to use the harvest more efficiently. But we reversed. Concern Worldwide and Welthungerhilfe provide on-the- also face the reality that decades of effort and rhetoric have so far failed ground perspectives on the issues of land tenure and title as well as to eradicate hunger. The 2012 Global Hunger Index, published jointly the impacts of scarce land, water, and energy on poor people in Sierra by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Concern Leone and Tanzania and describe the work of their organizations in Worldwide, and Welthungerhilfe, shows that progress in reducing the helping to alleviate these impacts. proportion of hungry people in the world has been tragically slow. Based on these research findings and experiences in the field, According to the Index, hunger on a global scale remains “serious.” IFPRI, Concern Worldwide, and Welthungerhilfe propose holistic strate- Twenty countries still have levels of hunger that are “alarming” or gies for dealing with all four sectors—land, water, energy, and food. “extremely alarming.” Among the world’s regions, South Asia and These strategies involve governing natural resources more responsibly, Sub-Saharan Africa continue to have the highest levels of hunger. These scaling up innovative solutions for using scarce resources, and address- results represent extreme suffering for millions of poor people. ing the factors that contribute to natural resource scarcity, including This is the seventh year that IFPRI has calculated the Global climate change. Such strategies will not emerge spontaneously; they Hunger Index and analyzed this multidimensional measure of global must be expressly designed and implemented. All disciplines that can hunger. It is important to note that the GHI scores present country contribute must do so—from the water specialist to the energy expert, averages: even in countries classified as having “moderate” or “seri- from researcher to practitioner, from farmer to policymaker, and from ous” hunger, there can be areas where the situation is “alarming” or economist to nutritionist. “extremely alarming.” This report offers a picture not of the present, There is enough planet for all of us—if we don’t waste it. but of the recent past. The calculation of the GHI reflects the most recent data available from governments and international agencies, but these data suffer from significant time lags. Because up-to-the-minute data on global hunger are not available, the report does not reflect the impact of the latest events. We hope that governments and international agencies will work together to gather more timely and complete data on hunger in their countries and worldwide. Dr. Wolfgang Jamann Dr. Shenggen Fan Tom Arnold Secretary General and Director General Chief Executive Chairperson International Food Policy Concern Worldwide Welthungerhilfe Research Institute 2012 Global Hunger Index | Foreword 3 CONTENTS SUMMARY 5 CHAPTER 01 The Concept of the Global Hunger Index 02 Global, Regional, and National Trends 10 03 Sustainable Food Security under Land, Water, and Energy Stresses 22 6 04 The Centrality of Land, Water, and Energy for Smallholders 34 05 Policy Recommendations 46 A Data Sources and Calculation of the 1990, 1996, 2001, and 2012 Global Hunger Index Scores 54 B Data Underlying the Calculation of the 1990, 1996, 2001, and 2012 Global Hunger Index Scores 55 C Country Trends for the 1990, 1996, 2001, and 2012 Global Hunger Index Scores 57 APPENDIXES BIBLIOGRAPHY 61 PARTNERS 67 4 Contents | 2012 Global Hunger Index SUMMARY World hunger, according to the 2012 Global Hunger Index (GHI), has investments in land in a number of developing countries, putting local declined somewhat since 1990 but remains “serious.” The global people’s land rights at risk. In addition, water is scarce and likely to average masks dramatic differences among regions and countries. become scarcer with climate change. Regionally, the highest GHI scores are in South Asia and Sub-Saha- To halt this trend, more holistic strategies are needed for deal- ran Africa. South Asia reduced its GHI score significantly between ing with land, water, energy, and food, and they are needed soon. To 1990 and 1996—mainly by reducing the share of underweight chil- manage natural resources sustainably, it is important to secure land dren—but could not maintain this rapid progress. Though Sub-Saha- and water rights; phase out inefficient subsidies on water, energy, and ran Africa made less progress than South Asia in the 1990s, it has fertilizers; and create a macroeconomic environment that promotes caught up since the turn of the millennium, with its 2012 GHI score efficient use of natural resources. It is important to scale up techni- falling below that of South Asia. cal solutions, particularly those that conserve natural resources and From the 1990 GHI to the 2012 GHI, 15 countries reduced foster more efficient and effective use of land, energy, and water along their scores by 50 percent or more. In terms of absolute progress, the value chain. It is also crucial to tame the drivers of natural between the 1990 GHI and the 2012 GHI, Angola, Bangladesh, Ethio- resource scarcity by, for example, addressing demographic change, pia, Malawi, Nicaragua, Niger, and Vietnam saw the largest improve- women’s access to education, and reproductive health; raising ments in their scores. incomes and lowering inequality; and mitigating and adapting to cli- Twenty countries still have levels of hunger that are “extremely mate change through agriculture. alarming” or “alarming.” Most of the countries with alarming GHI scores Food security under land, water, and energy stress poses daunt- are in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia (the 2012 GHI does not, ing challenges. The policy steps described in this report show how we however, reflect the recent crisis in the Horn of Africa, which intensi- can meet these challenges in a sustainable and affordable way. fied in 2011, or the uncertain food situation in the Sahel). Two of the three countries with extremely alarming 2012 GHI scores—Burundi and Eritrea—are in Sub-Saharan Africa; the third country with an extremely alarming score is Haiti. Its GHI score fell by about one quarter from 1990 to 2001, but most of this improvement was reversed in subsequent years. The devastating January 2010 earthquake, although not yet fully captured by the 2012 GHI because of insufficient availability of recent data, pushed Haiti back into the category of “extremely alarming.” In contrast to recent years, the Democratic Republic of Congo is not listed as “extremely alarming,” because insufficient data are available to calculate the country’s GHI score. Current and reliable data are urgently needed to appraise the situation in the country. Recent developments in the land, water, and energy sectors have been wake-up calls for global food security: the stark reality is that the world needs to produce more food with fewer resources, while eliminating wasteful practices and policies. Demographic changes, income increases, climate change, and poor policies and institutions are driving natural resource scarcity in ways that threaten food production and the environment on which it depends. Food security is now inextricably linked to developments in the water, energy, and land sectors. Rising energy prices affect farmers’ costs for fuel and fertilizer, increase demand for biofuel crops relative to food crops, and raise the price of water use. Agriculture already occurs within a context of land scarcity in terms of both quantity and quality: the world’s best arable land is already under cultivation, and unsustainable agricultural practices have led to significant land degradation. The scarcity of farmland coupled with shortsighted bioenergy policies has led to major foreign 2012 Global Hunger Index | Summary 5 01 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – High levels of hunger are generally found in those countries and regions where access and property rights to land, water, and energy are limited or contested. – – – – – – – – – – – 6 – Name des Teilbereich | Chapter 1 | 2012 Global Hunger Index THE CONCEPT OF THE GLOBAL HUNGER INDEX The Global Hunger Index (GHI) is a tool designed to comprehensively and Somalia, and now also for the Democratic Republic of Congo and measure and track hunger globally and by region and country. Calcu- Myanmar, lack of data on undernourishment prevents the calculation lated each year by the International Food Policy Research Institute of GHI scores.3 Despite the existence of abundant technological tools (IFPRI), the GHI highlights successes and failures in hunger reduction to collect and assess data almost instantaneously, enormous time and provides insights into the drivers of hunger. By raising awareness lags persist in reporting vital statistics on hunger. More up-to-date and understanding of regional and country differences in hunger, the and extensive country data on hunger are urgently needed. Some GHI will, it is hoped, trigger actions to reduce hunger. efforts are underway to improve data on undernourishment and the 1 A number of different indicators can be used to measure hun- distribution of food consumption. The Food and Agriculture Organi- ger (see “Concepts of Hunger” on page 9). To reflect the multidimen- zation of the United Nations (FAO) is currently revising its methodol- sional nature of hunger, the GHI combines three equally weighted indi- ogy for estimating undernourishment in order to provide more timely cators in one index: data that integrates all relevant information, including findings of the large number of household surveys that have become available in 1. Undernourishment: the proportion of undernourished people as a recent years (FAO 2011b). Improvements in collecting high-quality percentage of the population (reflecting the share of the population data on hunger and food consumption will allow for a more complete with insufficient caloric intake) and current assessment of the state of global hunger and, in turn, more effective steps to reduce hunger. 2. Child underweight: the proportion of children younger than age five The GHI scores are based on source data that are continually who are underweight (that is, have low weight for their age, reflect- revised by the United Nations agencies responsible for their compilation, ing wasting, stunted growth, or both), which is one indicator of child and each year’s GHI report reflects these revisions. These revisions undernutrition result in improvements in the data, but they also mean that the GHI scores from different years’ GHI reports are not comparable with one 3. Child mortality: the mortality rate of children younger than age five another. Like the 2011 GHI report, though, this year’s report has the (partially reflecting the fatal synergy of inadequate caloric intake and advantage that it contains not only the most recent GHI, but also GHI unhealthy environments) scores for three other reference periods—1990, 1996, and 2001— that are, in fact, comparable with one another, allowing for in-depth This multidimensional approach offers several advantages. It reflects analyses of trends. the nutrition situation not only of the population as a whole, but also of a physiologically vulnerable group—children—for whom a lack of nutrients leads to a high risk of illness, poor physical and 1 2 cognitive development, and death. In addition, by combining independently measured indicators, it reduces the effects of random measurement errors.2 The GHI ranks countries on a 100-point scale in which zero is 3 For background information on the concept, see Wiesmann (2004) and Wiesmann, von Braun, and Feldbrügge (2000). For a multidimensional measure of poverty, see the index developed by the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) for the United Nations Development Programme (Alkire and Santos 2010). FAO no longer publishes country-level estimates of undernourishment and dietary energy supply per capita for the Democratic Republic of Congo (FAO 2011a), which according to past reports had the largest relative and absolute increase in GHI scores since 1990. Similarly, no GHI could be calculated for Myanmar because of lack of data on undernourishment. the best score (no hunger) and 100 the worst, although neither of these extremes is reached in practice. The scale in Box 1.1 on the following pages shows the severity of hunger—from “low” to “extremely alarming”—associated with the range of possible GHI scores. The 2012 GHI is calculated for 120 countries for which data on the three components are available and for which measuring hunger is considered most relevant. (The GHI calculation excludes some higher-income countries because the prevalence of hunger there is very low.) The GHI is only as current as the data for its three component indicators. This year’s GHI reflects data from 2005 to 2010—the most recent available country-level data on the three GHI components. It is thus a snapshot not of the present, but of the recent past. For some countries, such as Afghanistan, Iraq, Papua New Guinea, 2012 Global Hunger Index | Chapter 01 | The Concept of the Global Hunger Index 7 WHAT IS THE GLOBAL HUNGER INDEX? BOX 1.1 0 5 ≤ 4.9 low 10 5.0–9.9 moderate 10.0–19.9 serious CONSTRUCTING THE GHI: ABOUT THE DATA The 1990, 1996, 2001, and 2012 GHI scores presented in this Data for the 2012 GHI span the period 2005–10. The undernourish- report reflect the latest revised data for the three components of ment data are for 2006–08 (FAO 2011a; authors’ estimates); data the GHI. Where original source data were not available, estimates on child mortality are for 2010 (UNICEF 2012b); and data on child were made for the GHI components based on the most recent data undernutrition are for the latest year for which data are available available. The “child mortality” and “undernourishment” compo- in the period 2005–10 (WHO 2012; UNICEF 2012a, c; MEASURE nents for the 1990, 1996, and 2001 GHI scores were revised DHS 2012; authors’ estimates). See Appendix A for more detailed using updated data from the United Nations Children’s Fund background information on the data sources for and calculations (UNICEF) and FAO, respectively. In addition, the 1990, 1996, of the 1990, 1996, 2001, and 2012 GHI scores. 1 2001, and 2012 GHI scores use revised calorie data from FAO for “child underweight” estimates. The “child underweight” component of the four GHI scores includes the latest additions to the World Health Organization’s Global Database on Child Growth and Malnutrition, the most recent Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) reports, and statistics from UNICEF (2012a). These enhancements in the underlying data improve the quality of the GHI. 8 The Concept of the Global Hunger Index | Chapter 01 | 2012 Global Hunger Index 30 20 40 20.0–29.9 alarming ≥ 30.0 extremely alarming CONCEPTS OF HUNGER The terminology used to refer to different concepts of hunger can 1 be confusing. “Hunger” is usually understood to refer to the discomfort associated with lack of food. FAO defines food deprivation, or “undernourishment,” specifically as the consumption of fewer than about 1,800 kilocalories a day—the minimum that most people require to live a healthy and productive life.2 2 For previous GHI calculations, see von Grebmer et al. (2011); von Grebmer et al. (2010); von Grebmer et al. (2009); von Grebmer et al. (2008); IFPRI/Welthungerhilfe/Concern (2007); Wiesmann (2006a, b); and Wiesmann, Weingärtner, and Schöninger (2006). FAO considers the composition of a population by age and sex to calculate its average minimum energy requirement, which varies by country (from about 1,690 kilocalories per person per day in Eritrea to 2,000 kilocalories per person per day in the Netherlands for 2006–08). The country’s average minimum energy requirement is used to estimate undernourishment (FAO 2011a). “Undernutrition” goes beyond calories and signifies deficiencies in any or all of the following: energy, protein, or essential vitamins and minerals. Undernutrition is the result of inadequate intake of food— in terms of either quantity or quality—poor utilization of nutrients due to infections or other illnesses, or a combination of these factors, which are in turn caused by household food insecurity; inadequate maternal health or child care practices; or inadequate access to health services, safe water, and sanitation. “Malnutrition” refers more broadly to both undernutrition (problems of deficiencies) and overnutrition (problems of unbalanced diets, such as consumption of too many calories in relation to requirements with or without low intake of micronutrient-rich foods). In this report, “hunger” refers to the index based on the three indicators described on page 7. 2012 Global Hunger Index | Chapter 01 | The Concept of the Global Hunger Index 9 02 The need to produce more with less – and to do so more sustainably and in a manner that prioritizes the poor – will remain. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 10 – Name des Teilbereich | Chapter 1 | 2012 Global Hunger Index GLOBAL, REGIONAL, AND NATIONAL TRENDS Improvements in global hunger since 1990 continue to be small. Large Regional and National Differences Although the number of undernourished people was on the rise from These global averages mask dramatic differences among regions and the mid-1990s until 2006–08, the proportion of undernourished peo- countries. Compared with the 1990 score, the 2012 GHI score was ple in the world declined in the same time period (FAO 2011a). Because 16 percent lower in Sub-Saharan Africa, 26 percent lower in South the GHI measures relative hunger—that is, it refers to the proportion Asia, and 35 percent lower in the Near East and North Africa (Figure of people who suffer from hunger, broadly defined by the three com- 2.1). Progress in Southeast Asia and Latin America and the Caribbe- ponent indicators—the index shows a positive trend. The 2012 world 4 an was particularly remarkable, with the GHI scores decreasing by 46 GHI fell by 26 percent from the 19905 world GHI, from a score of 19.8 percent and 44 percent respectively (although the score was already to 14.7 (Figure 2.1). low in the latter region). In Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth The three indicators contributed differently to the decline in the world GHI score since 1990. A decline in child underweight lowered of Independent States, the 2012 GHI score was 46 percent lower than the 1996 score.6 the world GHI score by 2.7 points, whereas changes in the child mor- Southeast Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean have tality rate and the proportion of undernourished people in the popula- experienced a fairly consistent reduction in GHI scores since 1990. In tion contributed reductions of 1.1 and 1.3 points, respectively. the Near East and North Africa, the decrease of GHI scores has accel- The world GHI declined most rapidly—by 2.6 points—between erated after a period of virtual stagnation between 1990 and 1996. In 1990 and 1996, and progress slowed thereafter. Undernourishment South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa—the two regions with the highest and underweight in children improved most between 1990 and 1996, GHI scores, at 22.5 and 20.7 respectively—the rates of progress have whereas progress in reducing child mortality has accelerated since also been uneven. 2001. The proportion of undernourished people has remained almost constant at the global level since 1995–97, falling by just 1 percentage point. The index for hunger in the world, however, remains “serious.” FIGURE 2.1 CONTRIBUTION OF COMPONENTS TO 1990 GHI, 1996 GHI, 2001 GHI, AND 2012 GHI, BY REGION 35 Under-five mortality rate Prevalence of underweight in children Proportion of undernourished 30.3 30 GHI score 20 24.6 24.8 24.0 24.3 25 22.5 23.7 20.7 19.8 17.2 16.3 14.7 15 14.5 12.0 9.6 10 7.9 8.2 7.9 8.8 6.8 7.4 5.3 6.1 5.2 4.9 5 4.4 2.8 GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI '90 '96 '01 '12 '90 '96 '01 '12 '90 '96 '01 '12 '90 '96 '01 '12 '90 '96 '01 '12 '90 '96 '01 '12 '90 '96 '01 '12 World South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Southeast Asia Near East & North Africa Latin America & Caribbean Eastern Europe & Commonwealth of Independent States Note: For the 1990 GHI, data on the proportion of undernourished are for 1990–92; data on child underweight are for the year closest to 1990 in the period 1988–92 for which data are available; and data on child mortality are for 1990. For the 1996 GHI, data on the proportion of undernourished are for 1995–97; data on child underweight are for the year closest to 1996 in the period 1994–98 for which data are available; and data on child mortality are for 1996. For the 2001 GHI, data on the proportion of undernourished are for 2000–02; data on child underweight are for the year closest to 2001 in the period 1999–2003 for which data are available; and data on child mortality are for 2001. For the 2012 GHI, data on the proportion of undernourished are for 2006–08, data on child underweight are for the latest year in the period 2005–10 for which data are available, and data on child mortality are for 2010. 2012 Global Hunger Index | Chapter 02 | Global, Regional, and National Trends 11 BOX 2.1 GHI AND INCOME IN INDIA AND ELSEWHERE 45 1990 1996 2001 2012 40 Bangladesh 35 GHI GHI GHI GHI Global Hunger Index 30 India 25 20 Mozambique Sri Lanka 15 10 Brazil China 5 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 Gross national income per capita Source: Based on data on per capita GNI from the World Bank (2012). Note: Data on gross national income (GNI) per capita are based on purchasing power parity and expressed in constant 2005 international dollars. The black trend line was predicted from a regression of 1990, 1996, 2001, and 2012 country-level GHI scores on GNI per capita for all countries with available data. Data points for 1990 GHI, 1996 GHI, 2001 GHI, and 2012 GHI correspond with GNI per capita data for 1989–91, 1995–97, 2000–02, and 2008–10, respectively. 12 India has lagged behind in improving its GHI recent data on undernourishment are for regression of the GHI on GNI per capita for score despite strong economic growth. After 2006–08, and India’s latest available 117 countries with available data. India’s a small increase between 1996 and 2001, nationally representative data on child data points fall consistently above the pre- India’s GHI score fell only slightly, and the underweight were collected in 2005–06. dicted line. This result means that given latest GHI returned to about the 1996 level, Given that the Government of India has India’s per capita income, it has higher GHI as the above graph shows. This stagnation in failed to monitor national trends in child scores than would be expected. Between GHI scores occurred during a period when undernutrition for more than six years, any 1990 and 1996, India’s trend line moved in India’s gross national income (GNI) per cap- recent progress in the fight against child parallel with the predicted line, indicating ita almost doubled, rising from about 1,460 undernutrition cannot be taken into account that its GHI score was falling commensurate to 2,850 constant 2005 international dollars by the 2012 GHI. with economic growth. After 1996, however, between 1995–97 and 2008–10 (World Nonetheless, even bearing in mind that possi- the disparity between economic development Bank 2012). ble recent advances in the fight against child and progress in the fight against hunger wid- When comparing GHI scores with GNI per undernutrition are not yet visible in the latest ened, and India moved further away from the capita, it must be emphasized that India’s GHI, India’s track record is disappointing. predicted line.1 latest GHI score is based partly on outdated Generally, higher incomes are associated In two other South Asian countries—Bang- data: although it includes relatively recent with less hunger. This pattern is shown by ladesh and Sri Lanka—GHI scores were also child mortality data from 2010, FAO’s most the black line, which was predicted from a higher than expected but decreased almost Global, Regional, and National Trends | Chapter 02 | 2012 Global Hunger Index proportionally with GNI per capita growth from 2005–10, India ranked second to last sary to reduce child undernutrition, these (that is, largely in parallel with the predicted on child underweight out of 129 countries— measures alone are usually insufficient. The line). Compared with countries at a similar below Ethiopia, Niger, Nepal, and Bangla- findings of a recent IFPRI study imply that in level of economic development, Sri Lanka desh. Only Timor-Leste had a higher rate of the absence of concurrent improvements in achieved impressively high literacy and life underweight children. By comparison, only health and education, only modest impacts expectancy through welfare-oriented poli- 23 percent of children are underweight in on child undernutrition in India are to be cies, investment in public healthcare and Sub-Saharan Africa (although India has a expected from income growth (Bhagowalia, education systems, and a commitment to lower proportion of undernourished in the Headey, and Kadiyala 2012). A multisec- gender equality (Samarage 2006). Bang- population than Sub-Saharan Africa2). toral, well-coordinated approach is needed ladesh has benefited from broad-based It must be emphasized that child undernutri- to successfully fight child undernutrition in social progress, and its vibrant NGO sector tion is not simply the outcome of a lack of India and elsewhere (Headey, Chiu, and and public transfer programs helped reduce food in the household. There are many other Kadiyala 2011; von Braun, Ruel, and Gulati child undernutrition among the poorest. potential causes, such as lack of essential 2008; Bhutta et al. 2008). Bangladesh has also closed the gender gap vitamins and minerals in the diet, improper India has moved on a number of fronts to in education through targeted public inter- caring and feeding practices, or frequent improve food security and nutrition in past ventions and has overtaken India on a range infections, which often result from inade- years and has recognized the need for mul- of social indicators, including the level and quate health services or unsanitary environ- tisectoral action (Kadiyala and Menon rate of reduction of child mortality (UNICEF ments. Women’s low status in India and other 2012). The government operates several 2012b; World Bank 2005; Drèze 2004). The parts of South Asia contributes to children’s large-scale, nutrition-relevant social pro- country is also committed to regular monitor- poor nutritional outcomes in the region grams, but poor design, low coverage, and ing of children’s nutritional status. because children’s development and moth- insufficient monitoring are continual chal- China has lower GHI scores than predicted ers’ well-being are closely linked: women’s lenges. In the absence of up-to-date infor- from its level of economic development. It poor nutritional status, low education, and mation on nutrition outcomes, program lowered its levels of hunger and undernutri- low social status undermine their ability to effectiveness remains uncertain. Home to tion through a strong commitment to pover- give birth to well-nourished babies and to the majority of the world’s undernourished ty reduction, nutrition and health interven- adequately feed and care for their children children, India is in dire need of monitoring tions, and improved access to safe water, (von Grebmer et al. 2010). According to sur- systems for child undernutrition and relat- sanitation, and education. Brazil successful- veys during 2000–06, 36 percent of Indian ed indicators that produce data at regular ly implemented targeted social programs (von women of childbearing age were under- intervals, in order to improve program per- Braun, Ruel, and Gulati 2008). Since 1992, weight, compared with only 16 percent in 23 formance and scale up impact (Kadiyala et Mozambique has been recovering from a Sub-Saharan African countries (Deaton and al. 2012). long-lasting civil war and has witnessed eco- Drèze 2009). nomic growth and poverty reduction (van den Research has shown that early nutritional Boom 2011), coupled with hunger reduction: deprivation causes lasting damage to chil- all three components of the GHI improved dren’s physical and cognitive development, since 1990. schooling outcomes, and economic produc- In India, 43.5 percent of children under five tivity in later life (Victora et al. 2008). These are underweight (WHO 2012, based on the findings underline the urgent need to address 2005–06 National Family Health Survey the issue of child undernutrition effectively, [IIPS and Macro International 2007]): this focusing particularly on the thousand days rate accounts for almost two-thirds of the from conception to a child’s second birthday. country’s alarmingly high GHI score. Accord- Whereas increases in food production and ing to the latest data on child undernutrition, improved distribution of food may be neces- 3 2012 Global Hunger Index | Chapter 02 | Global, Regional, and National Trends 1 2 3 Unless child underweight was almost halved in India between 2005–06 and 2008–2010—which is extremely unlikely— this statement holds even if progress in reducing child underweight has recently accelerated. Recognizing the dearth of up-to-date information on child undernutrition in India, an alliance of civil society organizations conducted a nutrition survey in selected districts in 2011. The findings, while not nationally representative, indicate some improvement: child underweight fell from 53 to 42 percent in high-burden districts between 2002–04 and 2011, and the rate of reduction was lower in better-off districts (Naandi Foundation 2011). In 2006–08, 19 percent of the population was undernourished in India, and 27 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa (FAO 2011a). This number is the population-weighted average for all these countries, which comprise roughly two-thirds of Sub-Saharan Africa’s population. 13 Among the regions, South Asia has the highest 2012 GHI score. South began with a lower GHI score in 1990. Sub-Saharan Africa’s GHI score Asia reduced its GHI score by more than 6 points between 1990 and increased marginally between 1990 and 1996, fell slightly until 2001, 1996—mainly through a large 15-percentage-point decline in under- and declined more markedly until the period reflected in the 2012 GHI weight in children—but this rapid progress could not be maintained. score. The large-scale civil wars of the 1990s and 2000s ended, and Stagnation followed, and the region has lowered its GHI score by only former conflict countries became more politically stable. Economic about 2 points since 2001 despite strong economic growth (see Box growth resumed on the continent, and advances in the fight against 2.1). The proportion of undernourished people did not decline between HIV and AIDS contributed to a reduction in child mortality in the coun- 1995–97 and 2006–08 and even showed a transient increase of tries most affected by the epidemic. about 2 percentage points around 2000–02. Social inequality and Since 2001, child mortality rates—both for infants and for the low nutritional, educational, and social status of women are major children under the age of five—have declined in Sub-Saharan Africa. causes of child undernutrition in this region and have impeded While a range of factors may have played a role, a major reason seems improvements in the GHI score. to be the decrease in the prevalence of malaria, which coincided with Though Sub-Saharan Africa made less progress than South the increased use of insecticide-treated bed nets and other antima- Asia in the 1990s, it has caught up since the turn of the millennium, larial interventions (Demombynes and Trommlerová 2012). Other fac- with its 2012 GHI score falling below that of South Asia. However, tors that may have contributed to reduced mortality rates include South Asia’s overall decline was greater because Sub-Saharan Africa higher immunization rates and births in medical centers; improved BOX 2.2 14 THE SAHEL: A SUDDEN CRISIS OR A SYSTEMIC PROBLEM? In the spring of 2011, reports of an year average. Taken together, the entire increased steadily over the past few years, impending famine in the African Sahel region of West Africa plus Chad produced although the trends are highly variable. region began to appear in the media. 5 percent more than that average. Here, too, domestic production and com- About 18 million people were estimated Moreover, domestic production is only one mercial imports have matched or exceeded to be at risk of starvation, mainly because source of supplies to meet local demand for aggregate demand every year, without even of poor harvests in several countries. The food. The other sources are commercial taking into consideration food aid and infor- warning of the impending crisis was trig- imports and food aid. When commercial mal cross-border trade (Eilerts 2012). gered by a large production shortfall in imports are accounted for, supply levels for The history of food prices in West Africa 2011—a 26 percent decline in the Sahe- each country, as well as for the West Afri- shows that the food balance situation in this lian countries—compared with 2010. can region as a whole, far exceed local region is actually more stable than in other That statistic alone, however, is somewhat demand. For the Sahelian countries, com- regions of Africa. Prices have risen less misleading. mercial imports bring the net excess sup- than elsewhere on the continent. The year 2010 was a record production ply to nearly 600,000 metric tons—not So why the crisis? The real issue may not be year, and, when compared with the aver- including food aid. The net surplus for the sudden famine, but rather persistent, chron- age of the preceding five years, produc- Economic Community of West African ic vulnerability among certain segments of tion in 2011 does not appear to be dra- States (ECOWAS), without Nigeria and the population that is not being addressed matically below recent trends, except in a Guinea, exceeds 2 million metric tons. in a systemic way. Operating in crisis mode, few countries (see figure at right). Taken Niger has the second-highest GHI score in as is currently being done, leads to costly, together, the eight Sahelian countries had West Africa and is by far the most vulnera- blanket-style, short-term interventions, while an aggregate shortfall of just 3 percent ble country in the region. Yet even here, the the root of the problem remains. This “crisis compared with the preceding five-year production shortfall in 2011 was not excep- approach” may be effective in raising funds, average. In contrast, the eight neighbor- tionally large by historical standards, nor but it can disrupt the very policies that are ing coastal countries together produced were harvest levels in preceding years needed to build resilience among the most 9 percent more than the preceding five- exceptionally poor. In fact, production has vulnerable groups. Such policies require Global, Regional, and National Trends | Chapter 02 | 2012 Global Hunger Index antenatal care and access to clean water and sanitation facilities; 1990 (Figure 2.3). Turkey’s notable progress since 1990 is due and increasing levels of income, leading to better nutrition and mainly to significant reductions in the prevalence of child under- access to medical care. weight (which fell by almost 7 percentage points) and child mortal- The recent crisis in the Horn of Africa, which intensified in ity (which fell by about 6 percentage points), while undernourish- 2011, is not reflected in the 2012 GHI. The crisis, and the current situ- ment in the country remained very low. After 1996 Turkey’s GHI ation in the Sahel (see Box 2.2), demonstrates that, though the situa- score began to decline substantially, and between the 2001 GHI tion in Sub-Saharan Africa is improving, food security remains fragile and the 2012 GHI, its score was halved. Kuwait’s progress in reduc- in parts of the region and vulnerability to shocks is still high. ing hunger is due mainly to its unusually high score in 1990, when Iraq invaded the country: its GHI score fell by more than 5 points Best and Worst Country-Level Results (or 57 percent) until 1996, and has fallen by about 1 point since From the 1990 GHI to the 2012 GHI, 15 countries reduced their (see country trends in Appendix C). scores by 50 percent or more (Figure 2.2). Forty-four countries made With the exception of North Korea, all the countries in which modest progress, reducing their GHI scores by between 25 and 49.9 the hunger situation worsened from the 1990 GHI to the 2012 GHI are percent, and 21 countries decreased their GHI scores by less than in Sub-Saharan Africa. Increased hunger since 1990 in Burundi, 25 percent. Only one country in Sub-Saharan Africa—Ghana—is Comoros, and Côte d’Ivoire can be attributed to prolonged conflict and among the 10 best performers in improving their GHI score since political instability. In Comoros, the GHI score fell after a peak in 2001, 7 national governments to exercise leadership CHANGES IN CEREAL PRODUCTION AMONG SAHELIAN and to embrace (1) systemic and sustained AND OTHER WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES efforts to raise productivity among the most vulnerable, (2) targeted safety-net programs and wider interventions that are consistent Production (million tons) % change in 2011 production compared with: with and supportive of the goal of building long-term community resilience, and (3) 2010 2010 concerted efforts to remove barriers to 2011 2006–2010 cross-border trade. The region’s strong agricultural and broader -26 22.1 economic growth suggests that the chances 16.4 -3 Sahelian countries for the first two measures to succeed are better now than at any time in the recent 38.1 past. Moreover, the best argument for fur- 38.4 +1 Coastal West African countries +9 ther opening up cross-border trade is the fact that the region as a whole is in a sur- 60.2 plus situation while isolated areas of indi- 54.8 vidual countries are suffering from the effects of localized production shortfalls. 56.7 Alongside these efforts, a more unified and coherent approach to resilience, and more specifically to community resilience, is required of all stakeholders at national, international, and multilateral levels. ECOWAS countries 52.9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 All West African countries 70 -9 +5 -7 +4 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Source: Based on CILSS/AGRHYMET (2012). Note: Sahelian countries are those that belong to the Comité permanent Inter-Etats de Lutte contre la Sécheresse dans le Sahel (CILSS); ECOWAS = Economic Community of West African States. 2012 Global Hunger Index | Chapter 02 | Global, Regional, and National Trends 15 BOX 2.3 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: SHOCKS HIT A GROWING REGION Since the late 1980s, almost all Latin Amer- external shocks, the food price crises signifi- ican countries have adopted far-reaching cantly raised food inflation in most countries worrisome. The prevalence of child stunting economic reforms. The resulting increase in in Latin America and the Caribbean. is only 2 percent in Chile, but it is more economic openness has gone hand in hand Before the crises, most countries in the region than 27 percent in Bolivia and Ecuador; with large financial inflows—particularly in were on track to reach the Millennium Devel- nearly 30 percent in Haiti and Honduras; the first half of the 1990s—and brought opment Goal of halving the proportion of peo- and 48 percent in Guatemala. new sources of economic growth. Although ple who suffer from hunger by 2015; with the Haiti, the poorest and most food-insecure overall growth slowed after 1995, strong food crises, many countries experienced set- country in the Western hemisphere, is still growth has resumed in the past five years. backs in their progress toward this goal. The feeling the effects of the January 2010 earth- With the exception of a handful of countries, impact has been greatest on net food-import- quake, which killed more than 300,000 peo- this economic growth has been accompa- ing countries—specifically, Mexico and Cen- ple and affected 3 million—about one in nied by relatively modest inflation. tral America—as well as on poor consumers three Haitians. More than 1 million people Despite these positive results, virtually all in peri-urban and rural areas. When the food lost their homes, hospitals and other crucial Latin American countries share similar prob- price crisis of 2007–08 hit El Salvador, for infrastructure were destroyed, the health sys- lems: uneven economic growth, lagging agri- example, the food budget of a rural house- tem was greatly weakened, and food avail- cultural growth, and, in certain cases, unac- hold bought only 56 percent of what it had ability declined (World Bank 2010; Rosen et ceptably high rates of poverty and malnutrition. bought 18 months before (WFP 2008). Such al. 2012). As a consequence, from 2009 to More than 60 percent of the region’s poor live declines in food purchasing power are dispro- 2010 child mortality in Haiti more than in rural areas, where slow economic growth, portionately felt by the poorest segment of the doubled, exceeding its 1990 level (IGME unequal distribution of assets, inadequate population. 2011). Lack of access to food, shelter, clean public investment and public services, and The food price shocks hit a region where water, and health services increased the vulnerability to natural and economic shocks nutrition status is mixed. The average prev- risk of child undernutrition (World Bank are major policy issues. The 2007–08 and the alence of child underweight in Latin Amer- 2010). Two years after the disaster, more 2010–11 food price crises exacerbated these ica and the Caribbean is 4 percent, but in than half a million Haitians still lived in problems. Although the region was considered Guatemala and Haiti rates are 13 and about tents and under tarpaulins in hundreds of relatively stable and capable of absorbing 19 percent, respectively. Rates of stunting camps (Oxfam 2012). for children under five are even more PREVALENCE OF UNDERWEIGHT AND STUNTING IN CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN FIVE YEARS (%), VARIOUS YEARS FROM 2004 TO 2010 40 30 20 Regional average Venezuela Uruguay Suriname Peru Paraguay Panama Nicaragua Mexico Jamaica Honduras Haiti Guyana Guatemala El Salvador 0 10 17.5 19.1 23.0 15.5 23.2 7.5 10.7 6.0 13.9 3.7 15.6 4.0 15.0 4.3 3.4 3.9 5.7 29.7 29.9 1.9 5.7 3.4 8.6 10.5 18.2 18.9 20.6 13.0 29.0 Ecuador Dominican Republic Cuba Costa Rica Colombia Chile Brazil 6.6 27.2 2.2 7.1 0.5 2.0 3.4 12.7 1.1 5.6 3.5 7.5 3.4 10.1 6.2 8.3 4.5 Bolivia 2.3 Argentina Stunting 50 48.0 Underweight Source: WHO (2012); UNICEF (2012a); MEASURE DHS (2012). 16 Global, Regional, and National Trends | Chapter 02 | 2012 Global Hunger Index Iceland Norway Finland COUNTRY PROGRESS IN REDUCING GHI SCORES FIGURE 2.2 (percentage decrease in 2012 GHI compared with 1990 GHI) Canada Canada Ireland Portugal United States of America Sweden Estonia Belarus Neth. United Kingdom Bel. Germany Poland Czech Rep. Lux. Ukraine Aust. Slova. Mold. Switz. Slov. Hung. France Cro. Rom. Bos. & Herz. Serb. Mont. Bulg. Georgia Mace. Italy Alb. Armenia Azerb. Spain Turkey Greece Tunisia Algeria Cuba Dom. Rep. Jamaica Belize Haiti Honduras Guatemala Nicaragua El Salvador Trinidad & Tobago Panama Costa Rica Venezuela Guyana French Guiana Suriname Colombia Brazil Angola N. Korea China Afghanistan Iran Zambia Pakistan Bhutan Bangladesh Myanmar Lao PDR India Thailand Cambodia Vietnam Sri Lanka Philippines Brunei Malaysia Papua New Guinea Indonesia Timor-Leste Mauritius Botsw. Swaziland South Africa Madagascar Australia Increase Decrease of 0.0–24.9 % Decrease of 25.0–49.9% Decrease of 50% or more Striped countries have 1990 and 2012 GHI of less than five No data Industrialized country Lesotho Uruguay Note: An increase in the GHI indicates a worsening of a country’s hunger situation. A decrease in the GHI indicates an improvement in a country’s hunger situation. GHI scores were not calculated for countries with very small populations. but it is not yet clear if this constitutes a reversal of past trends. In Côte d’Ivoire, the 1999 military coup and the 2002–07 civil war con- Between 1990 and 2001, Burundi’s GHI score increased steadily, but tributed significantly to the high level of hunger in the country. Since 2001, it has declined slightly since. With the transition to peace and political its GHI score has increased by 1.6 points (see country trends in Appen- stability that started in 2003, the country began a slow recovery from dix C). Between 1999 and 2007, the prevalence of child underweight rose decades of economic decline. However, its high level of undernourish- by 10 percentage points. Recent research examining the impact of the ment remains a serious issue: the proportion of undernourished peo- civil war on child health found that children residing in regions more affect- ple has been rising, although the rate of increase has now slowed. The ed by the conflict had significant health setbacks compared with children prevalence of child underweight has declined since 2000, but it in less-affected regions (Minoiu and Shemyakina 2012). remains one of the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa. The country’s child For the Democratic Republic of Congo, another conflict-rid- mortality rate has been improving, mainly since 2001 (see country den country in Sub-Saharan Africa and by far the worst performer trends in Appendix C). in terms of GHI scores in past GHI reports, data availability is no FIGURE 2.3 GHI WINNERS AND LOSERS FROM 1990 GHI TO 2012 GHI Winners (Percentage decrease in GHI) Losers (Percentage increase in GHI) Fiji -56 Vietnam -56 China -57 Saudi Arabia -57 Ghana -58 Nicaragua -59 Iran, Islamic Rep. -60 Mexico -62 Kuwait -71 Turkey -74 -80 -60 North Korea +21 Burundi +17 Swaziland +17 Comoros +16 Côte d'Ivoire +10 Botswana +2 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 Note: Countries with both 1990 GHI and 2012 GHI scores of less than five are excluded. 2012 Global Hunger Index | Chapter 02 | Global, Regional, and National Trends Japan Nepal Malawi Zimbabwe Mozambique Namibia Paraguay Argentina Kyrgyz Rep. Tajikistan Comoros Bolivia Chile Turkmenistan Mauritania Mali Oman Niger Chad Senegal Yemen Eritrea Sudan The Gambia Burkina Faso Djibouti Guinea-Bissau Benin Nigeria Guinea Côte Togo Ethiopia Central African Sierra Leone d'Ivoire Ghana Cameroon Republic Liberia Somalia Uganda Equatorial Guinea Congo, Kenya Gabon Rep. Congo, Rw. Dem. Rep. Bur. Tanzania Ecuador Peru Mongolia Uzbekistan Kuwait Bahrain Qatar Saudi Arabia U.A.E. Egypt Libya Western Sahara Kazakhstan S. Korea Cyprus Syria Lebanon Iraq Israel Jordan Morocco Mexico Russian Federation Latvia Lithuania Denmark 17 longer sufficient to calculate the GHI (see note 3 on page 7). have the highest prevalence of underweight in children under five— Renewed efforts should be made to collect high-quality data in order more than 40 percent in all three countries. Burkina Faso, Chad, Dem- to fill current gaps. ocratic Republic of Congo, Mali, Sierra Leone, and Somalia have the In Swaziland, the HIV and AIDS epidemic, along with high highest under-five mortality rate, ranging from 17 to 18 percent. income inequality, has severely undermined food security despite growth in national income. In 2009, Swaziland’s adult HIV prevalence 4 was estimated at 26 percent—the highest in the world (UNAIDS 2010). Although the country’s GHI scores worsened throughout the 1990s, the negative trend has been partly reversed since 2001. Swaziland and several other African countries have made great strides in preventing 5 mother-to-child transmission of HIV, and child mortality rates have dropped again after a peak around 2003 (UNAIDS 2010; IGME 2011). Botswana and Lesotho have also been heavily affected by HIV and AIDS 6 7 and have benefited from advances in treatment and improved access to anti-retroviral drugs. The pattern in their GHI scores is similar to that of Swaziland, with peaks in 2001, caused partly by transient increas- 8 The “world” includes all developing countries for which the GHI has been calculated; it also includes Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Iraq, Myanmar, Papua New Guinea, and Somalia, for which data on child underweight and child mortality are available or could be estimated and provisional estimates of undernourishment were provided by FAO only for the purpose of regional and global aggregation. Because much of the data for these countries is estimated or provisional, country GHI scores were not calculated. As noted earlier, data for some other countries are not available, and most high-income countries are excluded from the GHI calculation. The year 1990 was chosen for comparison because it is the reference point for achieving the targets under the Millennium Development Goals. For Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States, the 1996 GHI score was used for comparison because data are not available to calculate the 1990 score. The numbers in this sentence and the previous one refer to the 86 countries for which (1) data for the 1990 and 2012 GHI scores are available and (2) either or both of those scores is greater than 5. The Democratic Republic of Congo and Somalia, which are likely to have high proportions of undernourished as well, could not be included in this comparison because of lack of data. es in undernourishment and partly by rises in child mortality up to 2001 (see country trends in Appendix C). In North Korea, widespread starvation threatened in 1995 but was averted by large-scale food-aid deliveries (CIA 2012). The country’s GHI rose sharply between 1990 and 1996 and has declined only slightly since, providing evidence of chronic food insecurity in spite of considerable international humanitarian assistance (see country trends in Appendix C). A weak economy, high military spending, weatherrelated crop failures, and systemic problems in the agriculture sector have hampered progress (CIA 2012). Some countries achieved noteworthy absolute progress in improving their GHI scores. Between the 1990 GHI and the 2012 GHI, Angola, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nicaragua, Niger, and Vietnam saw the largest improvements—by 13 points or more—in their scores. In Burundi and Comoros, however, the GHI rose by about 6 and 4 points, respectively. Twenty countries still have levels of hunger that are “extremely alarming” or “alarming” (Figure 2.4). Most of the countries with alarming GHI scores are in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Two of the three countries with extremely alarming 2012 GHI scores—Burundi and Eritrea—are in Sub-Saharan Africa; the third country is Haiti. Haiti’s GHI score fell by about one quarter from 1990 to 2001, but most of this improvement was reversed in subsequent years (see Box 2.3 and country trends in Appendix C). The devastating January 2010 earthquake, although not yet fully captured by the 2012 GHI because of insufficient availability of recent data, pushed Haiti back into the category of “extremely alarming.” In terms of the GHI components, Burundi, Eritrea, and Haiti currently have the highest proportion of undernourished people—more than 50 percent of the population.8 Bangladesh, India, and Timor-Leste 18 Global, Regional, and National Trends | Chapter 02 | 2012 Global Hunger Index TABLE 2.1 Rank 1 2 3 4 4 6 6 8 9 9 11 11 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 35 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 52 54 54 COUNTRY GLOBAL HUNGER INDEX SCORES BY RANK, 1990 GHI, 1996 GHI, 2001 GHI, AND 2012 GHI Country Azerbaijan China Malaysia Paraguay Trinidad & Tobago Gabon Mauritius El Salvador Kyrgyz Republic South Africa Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Panama Guyana Peru Ecuador Honduras Thailand Suriname Ghana Nicaragua Armenia Dominican Republic Swaziland Mauritania Vietnam Congo, Rep. Mongolia Lesotho Indonesia Philippines Bolivia Guatemala Namibia Botswana Senegal Sri Lanka Benin Gambia, The Nigeria Tajikistan Uganda Mali Guinea Malawi Burkina Faso Zimbabwe Cameroon Côte d'Ivoire Guinea-Bissau Liberia North Korea Togo Kenya Tanzania 1990 11.8 9.0 7.9 7.1 8.4 8.0 10.1 6.9 10.1 14.6 14.5 13.5 13.5 15.1 10.3 21.4 22.4 14.2 9.3 22.6 25.6 23.6 16.5 12.6 18.5 19.9 16.9 15.2 20.3 13.4 18.3 20.8 21.3 16.2 24.1 18.7 27.8 22.4 29.9 23.5 18.6 21.6 16.5 20.7 22.7 15.7 26.4 20.7 23.2 1996 14.6 8.9 6.7 5.8 7.5 6.9 7.4 8.7 9.0 6.5 10.0 9.0 9.7 8.9 10.7 10.8 13.2 11.8 9.3 16.3 17.8 14.3 11.8 12.6 16.7 21.4 24.1 17.5 13.6 15.4 17.6 14.3 15.8 19.1 15.4 19.6 18.4 20.1 20.1 20.9 24.1 20.3 26.3 20.0 27.5 22.4 22.3 22.2 17.8 20.8 25.2 20.1 22.0 20.8 28.0 2001 7.8 6.7 6.6 5.4 6.2 7.2 6.0 5.4 9.0 7.4 8.9 10.8 8.9 7.8 9.0 8.9 10.0 9.2 10.1 12.8 12.3 11.3 10.9 12.9 16.6 15.5 15.7 14.8 13.9 14.2 14.2 12.3 15.1 16.3 15.7 19.2 15.2 16.8 16.3 18.2 24.6 17.3 23.0 21.6 22.5 21.8 21.3 19.0 16.6 21.4 25.0 20.1 23.3 20.4 25.9 2012 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.7 5.8 5.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.7 8.1 8.5 8.9 9.1 9.2 10.0 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.7 13.2 13.7 13.7 14.4 14.6 15.6 15.7 15.8 16.1 16.2 16.6 16.7 17.2 17.3 17.4 18.2 18.4 18.9 19.0 19.0 19.3 19.3 Rank 56 57 57 57 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 66 68 69 70 71 72 73 73 75 76 77 78 79 Country Cambodia Lao PDR Pakistan Rwanda Nepal Sudan Djibouti Niger Madagascar India Mozambique Zambia Bangladesh Angola Yemen, Rep. Sierra Leone Comoros Central African Rep. Timor-Leste Chad Ethiopia Haiti Eritrea Burundi 1990 31.8 28.6 25.5 28.2 26.9 28.7 30.8 36.4 24.1 30.3 35.5 24.8 37.9 41.9 29.0 32.7 22.2 27.4 39.3 42.2 33.9 31.6 1996 31.5 25.2 21.8 32.7 24.4 24.5 25.7 35.9 23.8 22.6 30.7 25.0 36.1 39.9 27.6 30.1 26.9 28.4 35.6 38.6 32.2 37.8 35.9 2001 26.0 23.6 21.7 25.6 23.0 25.9 25.3 30.5 24.9 24.2 28.8 27.2 27.8 33.0 27.9 30.1 29.7 27.4 26.1 30.4 34.5 25.8 37.8 38.0 2012 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.7 20.3 21.5 21.7 22.3 22.5 22.9 23.3 23.3 24.0 24.1 24.3 24.7 25.8 27.3 27.3 28.3 28.7 30.8 34.4 37.1 COUNTRIES WITH 2012 GHI SCORES LESS THAN 5 Country ´90 ´96 Albania 8.5 5.2 8.2 ´01 ´12 <5 Country Latvia Algeria 6.7 7.3 6.0 <5 Argentina ´90 ´96 ´01 ´12 - <5 <5 <5 Lebanon <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Libya <5 <5 <5 <5 Belarus - <5 <5 <5 Lithuania - <5 <5 <5 Bosnia & Herzegovina - <5 <5 <5 Macedonia, FYR - <5 <5 <5 Brazil 7.4 6.4 5.4 <5 Mexico 7.9 5.4 <5 <5 Bulgaria <5 <5 <5 <5 Moldova - 5.7 5.2 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Montenegro - <5 9.2 6.8 5.8 <5 Morocco 7.6 6.8 6.2 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 - <5 <5 <5 6.3 6.2 <5 <5 Chile Colombia Costa Rica Croatia Cuba Egypt, Arab Rep. Estonia Fiji <5 <5 <5 <5 Romania - <5 <5 <5 Russian Federation <5 6.5 <5 <5 Saudi Arabia 8.0 6.7 5.3 <5 Serbia - - <5 <5 <5 Slovak Republic - 6.3 <5 <5 <5 Syrian Arab Republic - 8.7 6.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 6.7 5.7 5.4 <5 <5 <5 Tunisia <5 <5 <5 Iran, Islamic Rep. 8.8 7.3 5.1 <5 Turkey 5.7 5.3 <5 <5 Jamaica 6.7 5.0 <5 <5 Ukraine <5 Jordan <5 Georgia Kazakhstan Kuwait 9.1 - <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Uruguay <5 <5 <5 <5 5.4 <5 Venezuela, RB 6.7 7.1 6.4 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Note: Ranked according to 2012 GHI scores. Countries with a 2012 GHI score of less than five are not included in the ranking, and differences between their scores are minimal. Countries that have identical 2012 GHI scores are given the same ranking (for example, Paraguay and Trinidad & Tobago both rank fourth). The following countries could not be included owing to lack of data: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Bhutan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Iraq, Myanmar, Oman, Papua New Guinea, Qatar, and Somalia. 2012 Global Hunger Index | Chapter 02 | Global, Regional, and National Trends 19 Greenland 2012 GLOBAL HUNGER INDEX BY SEVERITY FIGURE 2.4 Sweden Iceland Norway United Kingdom Denmark Canada Neth. Ireland Bel. Portugal Spain United States of America Germany Poland Lux. Czech Rep. Slovakia Austria Hungary Switz. Slov. France Croatia Italy Bos. & Herz.Serb. Mont. Mace. Albania Greece Tunisia Morocco Algeria Libya Western Sahara Mexico Cuba Dom. Rep. Belize Jamaica Honduras Guatemala El Salvador Mauritania Haiti Nicaragua Costa Rica Trinidad & Tobago Panama Venezuela Guyana Sierra Leone Suriname Colombia Senegal The Gambia Guinea-Bissau Guinea French Guiana Ecuador Liberia Mali Niger Chad Burkina Faso Benin Nigeria Côte Togo Central African d'IvoireGhana Republic Cameroon Equatorial Guinea Congo, Gabon Rep. Peru Brazil Angola Bolivia Namibia Paraguay Chile Argentina Uruguay > 30.0 Extremely alarming 20.0–29.9 Alarming 10.0–19.9 Serious 5.0–9.9 Moderate < 4.9 Low No data Industrialized country 20 Global, Regional, and National Trends | Chapter 02 | 2012 Global Hunger Index Finland Russian Federation Estonia Latvia Lithuania Belarus Ukraine Kazakhstan Mold. Mongolia Romania Bulgaria Georgia Armenia Azerb. Turkey Kyrgyz Rep. Uzbekistan N. Korea Turkmenistan Tajikistan S. Korea Syria Cyprus Lebanon Israel Iraq Jordan Kuwait Pakistan Bahrain Qatar U.A.E. Saudi Arabia Egypt China Afghanistan Iran Japan Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh Myanmar India Oman Eritrea Lao PDR Philippines Thailand Yemen Sudan Cambodia Vietnam Djibouti Ethiopia Sri Lanka Somalia Uganda Kenya Papua New Guinea Rw. Bur. Congo, Dem. Rep. Indonesia Tanzania Timor-Leste Comoros Zambia Brunei Malaysia Malawi Zimbabwe Mozambique Mauritius Botswana Madagascar Swaziland South Africa Australia Lesotho Note: For the 2012 GHI, data on the proportion of undernourished are for 2006–08, data on child underweight are for the latest year in the period 2005–10 for which data are available, and data on child mortality are for 2010. GHI scores were not calculated for countries for which data were not available and for certain countries with very small populations. 2012 Global Hunger Index | Chapter 02 | Global, Regional, and National Trends 21 03 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – “The tight interconnections between water, energy and land make clear that the management of each of them cannot be considered in isolation, but must be seen as part of an integrated system.” – – – – 22 – European Report on Development, 2012 Name des Teilbereich | Chapter 1 | 2012 Global Hunger Index SUSTAINABLE FOOD SECURITY UNDER LAND, WATER, AND ENERGY STRESSES In the pursuit of agricultural and economic growth, natural resource scar- tory systems are weaker. Moreover, land deals are found more often city and degradation have generally been afterthoughts. The rate of con- in those countries with high GHI values. While demand for land is rising, sumption growth, even more than population growth, has proven difficult continued land degradation is posing challenges. Soaring oil prices to slow, testing our ability to meet the basic needs of the most vulnera- have also contributed to both higher food prices and the drive for land ble people (Ehrlich, Kareiva, and Daily 2012) by putting pressure on investments in developing countries, particularly for the production resources and pricing poor people out of access to these resources. of first-generation biofuels (Anseeuw et al. 2012b). Rapid growth in Recent developments in the land, water, and energy sectors domestic and industrial water demand—as a result of population and have been wake-up calls. The stark reality is that we need to produce economic growth, increased urbanization, and associated, changing more with less while eliminating wasteful practices and policies. In lifestyles—as well as changing climate, increased variability in rain- other words, we need a new socioeconomic model that is sustainable fall patterns, and rapidly growing water pollution levels, have increased and that prioritizes poor and marginalized people. water scarcity across much of the developing world, especially in Higher food prices are one signal of the need for a new model. emerging countries (Rosegrant, Ringler, and Zhu 2009). Water pollu- Prices rose by nearly 40 percent in 2007 and further increased in tion and poor access to sanitation, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa 2008, pushing 130–155 million people into extreme poverty. During and South Asia, contribute to the contamination of food and drinking this same period the number of children suffering permanent cogni- water and lead to diarrheal disease, a major source of childhood ill- tive and physical injury due to malnutrition may have increased by 44 ness and death in the developing world. The need for increased invest- million (World Bank 2009). Food prices flared up again in 2011 as ment to achieve water security has, for example, been recognized by well as in 2012 and are unlikely to decline in the foreseeable future China, which plans to invest an unprecedented US$630 billion in to the levels achieved in the early to mid-1990s. In addition to food water conservation over the next 10 years (Huang 2012). price increases, food price volatility increasingly affects poor consumers and producers across the globe (von Grebmer et al. 2011). The way we use land, water, and energy plays a significant As a result of economic and population growth, wealthier populations in the developed and increasingly the developing world are juxtaposed with nearly 1 billion food-insecure people and 2 billion role in the changing global food economy. Partly in response to the people suffering from micronutrient deficiencies. High levels of hun- food price hikes, the number of international and national agricultu- ger are generally found in those countries and regions where access ral land deals has soared over the past 5–10 years (Anseeuw et al. and property rights to water and land are limited or contested and 2012a, b). Many of the land leases and other agreements have tar- where modern energy sources and access to sanitation are under- geted Sub-Saharan Africa, where land rents are cheaper and regula- developed (see Figure 3.1). 100 90 80 ENERGY USE AND ACCESS TO SANITATION AND FOOD BY REGION Access to sanitation Access to food Energy use 10,000 9,000 8,000 70 7,000 60 6,000 50 5,000 40 4,000 30 3,000 20 2,000 10 1,000 0 0 South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa East Asia Energy use per capita (kilowatt hours) Share of the popuation with access to sanitation and food (%) FIGURE 3.1 OECD countries Sources: Access to food: based on child malnutrition levels calculated from IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) (Rosegrant et al. 2008b); access to sanitation and energy use: World Bank (2011b). 2012 Global Hunger Index | Chapter 03 | Sustainable Food Security under Land, Water, and Energy Stresses 23 Energy use is particularly low in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, FIGURE 3.2 where people still make heavy use of traditional biomass, such as their primary cooking fuel (Legros et al. 2009). Although the poorest people spend relatively little on energy (Figure 3.2), in part because of poor access, their use of traditional energy has other costs in terms of their time, health, and environment. Collection of fuelwood, for example, constitutes a major time burden for women and children, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Indoor air pollu- Urban Rural almost 70 percent of people rely on wood (and its by-products) as Ethiopia, 1999 between 2006 and 2030 and could double between now and 2050 (Foresight 2011). As a result of increasing natural resource scarcity, sustainable food security is now inextricably linked to developments in the water, energy, and land sectors (Figure 3.3). Pressures on these sectors for nonfood uses, from biofuel mandates and urban and indus- Urban Rural report, demand for energy is projected to increase by 45 percent 65.6 9.3 60.1 9.4 Guatemala, 2000 % of total expenditures 50.5 1.3 Food 47.6 Energy 1.3 Tajikistan, 2003 Urban Rural et al. 2011; von Braun 2007). Overall, according to the Foresight 63.8 7.7 Bangladesh, 2000 tion from the burning of biomass contributes to the death of nearly 2 million people annually, particularly women and children (Martin 69.5 10.4 Urban Rural fuelwood, cow dung, and crop residues. In Sub-Saharan Africa, POOR PEOPLE’S SPENDING ON FOOD AND ENERGY 0 70.7 4.9 73.7 4.2 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 trial development, as well as uncoordinated, injudicious use of these natural resources, will directly affect the food security of the poor and most vulnerable. FIGURE 3.3 Source: von Braun (2007), based on Ahmed et al. (2007). Notes: These data reflect spending by people living on less than US$1.08 a day. Energy costs include cooking, lighting, and heating fuels. HOW WATER, ENERGY, AND LAND POLICIES CAN THREATEN SUSTAINABLE FOOD SECURITY Water Ad hoc, uncoordinated sectoral policies at local, national, and international levels Desertification > Degradation Inefficient use of water > Ad hoc, uncoordinated investments > Expropriation of traditional smallholder water rights Focus on short-term economic gains Threats to sustainable food security Land > > Energy > not food “Land grabbing” > Deforestation > Exploitive production > Hydropower development without > Expropriation of traditional land > rights protection against adverse social Trade-offs between natural resources and human well-being and environmental impacts > Source: Authors. 24 Land used to produce fuel, Increased energy dependence of agriculture Sustainable Food Security under Land, Water, and Energy Stresses | Chapter 03 | 2012 Global Hunger Index FIGURE 3.4 PAST AND PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH,1975–2100 Less-developed regions Least-developed regions More-developed regions 80 60 40 20 2095–00 2090–95 2085–90 2080–85 2075–80 2070–75 2065–70 2060–65 2055–60 2050–55 2045–50 2040–45 2035–40 2030–35 2025–30 2020–25 2015–20 2010–15 2005–10 2000–05 1995–00 1990–95 1985–90 1980–85 0 1975–80 Annual population growth (in thousand people) 100 Note: More-developed regions comprise Europe, North America, Australia/New Zealand, and Japan. Less-developed regions comprise all regions of Africa, Asia (excluding Japan), and Latin America and the Caribbean, plus Melanesia, Micronesia, and Polynesia. The least-developed countries include 33 countries in Africa, 9 in Asia, 5 in Oceania, and 1 in Latin America and the Caribbean. Source: Authors, based on UN (2011). Contributors to Natural Resource Scarcity Almost all of the additional population will live in the group of “less- DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES. According to the United Nations medium variant9 developed” countries (Figure 3.4). Strong income growth in many of scenario, the world’s population is expected to reach more than 8 bil- these countries will drive the shift in diets toward more protein-rich lion by 2025 and more than 9 billion by 2050 (UN 2011). This increase and more resource-demanding commodities (such as meat and milk). occurs in the midst of major demographic changes. Fertility has Those countries with growing populations and limited ability to increase declined rapidly in recent decades in most low- and middle-income domestic production in line with growing demand, particularly in the countries. Total fertility rates are converging toward replacement Middle East and Africa, will experience an increase in demand for level—that is, the rate at which population growth through reproduc- imported staples and high-value agricultural commodities. tion will be approximately zero—except in 35 countries, mainly in Sub- In addition to population growth, migration from rural to urban Saharan Africa (World Bank 2007). In countries where fertility has areas in developing countries will have significant effects on food con- declined significantly10 and mortality rates have fallen, population sumption patterns. About 52 percent of the world’s population cur- growth has slowed and the population has become older. However, rently lives in urban areas; by 2050, 67 percent will live in cities (UN countries where the population is still growing rapidly, mainly in Sub- 2011). When people move to urban areas, they tend to eat fewer basic Saharan Africa and parts of Asia, will face significant challenges staples and more fruits, livestock products, and cereals requiring less because of expanding demand for public services, goods (such as food preparation. It will be a challenge to meet this demand in a sustainable and clothing), and investments in education and health. Countries will manner (Tokgoz and Rosegrant 2011). need to increase such investments as the population increases, making it difficult for them to invest in other key sectors such as agriculture (World Bank 2007). 2012 Global Hunger Index | Chapter 03 | Sustainable Food Security under Land, Water, and Energy Stresses 25 Rapid al net carbon savings of first-generation biofuels have been questioned, economic growth in some developing countries over the past sever- particularly when production-induced land use changes are considered al decades is supporting the emergence of a relatively wealthy, gen- (Searchinger et al. 2008), and impacts on both water quantity and qual- erally urban middle class, estimated at 2 billion people (Court and ity, which can be significant, are growing (Moraes, Ringler, and Cai 2011). HIGHER INCOMES AND UNSUSTAINABLE RESOURCE CONSUMPTION. Narasimhan 2010). While economic progress is laudable, its impacts on natural resource use are substantial. Wealthier, more urbanized pop- Evidence of Natural Resource Scarcity ulations have transitioned toward more diversified diets, increasing their ENERGY. consumption of not only meat, but also vegetables and sugars—all of years and are projected to continue to rise, albeit more slowly. If cur- which require much more water and energy per unit of calorie produced. rent policies continue, the International Energy Agency projects an The lifestyles in industrialized countries are particularly characterized increase in real crude oil prices from US$78 a barrel in 2010 to by overuse of both renewable and fossil resources. US$140 by 2035. This represents a 2.4 percent annual increase. If Moreover, the benefits of economic growth have not reached everyone: even though global poverty levels have declined overall, the Global energy prices have increased significantly in recent aggressive investments in alternative energy fuels were to be made, oil price increases would be somewhat lower (IEA 2011). number of people living on between $1.25 and $2 a day nearly doubled Rising energy prices affect agriculture in several ways. Higher between 1981 and 2008: from 648 million to 1.18 billion. The rate of energy prices make biofuels more profitable, increasing the demand for growth in the number of people earning more than $2 a day has slowed agricultural land to be converted to the production of biofuel crops. At (Chen and Ravallion 2012). In some countries and regions, these poor the same time, rising energy prices raise farmers’ costs, especially given are trapped in downward spirals of abject poverty, low prospects for eco- that the agriculture sector has become more energy intensive. For exam- nomic activity, and unavailable or degraded natural resources. ple, farmers use diesel fuel and gasoline for tillage, planting, transportation, and harvesting. They use electricity, liquefied petroleum, gasoline, Demographic change and eco- and natural gas to irrigate fields; operate livestock, poultry, and dairy facil- nomic growth are the fundamental drivers of natural resource scarcity, ities; and process and store perishable commodities (USDA 2006). Anoth- but the future of land, water, and energy security will be decided by er important energy cost component is fertilizer use. According to Pimen- agricultural, climate, energy, science, and trade policies and institutions tel (2006), conventional agricultural production in the United States uses (Ringler, Biswas, and Cline 2010). One policy area—biofuels—is brief- approximately 1,000 liters of fossil energy per hectare, divided approxi- ly discussed to highlight the much broader issues behind this topic. mately equally among petroleum-based fertilizers, mechanization, and POOR POLICIES AND WEAK INSTITUTIONS. A number of factors have driven interest in biofuels as a other activities and inputs, such as pesticides. More broadly, the price of renewable energy source. These include higher energy prices stemming energy influences the prices of inputs, water, and transportation and from increased demand for energy, concerns about climate change, the marketing, all affecting agricultural production and food prices. desire to reduce dependence on imported energy sources, and the The share of energy in farmers’ costs varies significantly with- potential for rural growth and employment generation (Ewing et al. 2010; in and between countries. Among the crops grown in the United States, Kammen 2006). Biofuel policies have, however, resulted in increased the share of energy in total operating costs ranged from about 55 per- pressure on land and water. Given that biofuels are not yet economical- cent for wheat to about 20 percent for cotton in 2004 (USDA 2006). ly viable, biofuel policies typically include significant tax breaks for bio- Energy accounts for a smaller share of farmers’ costs in developing fuel refineries combined with subsidies for feedstock and consumption countries, but that share is rising as agricultural activities in those coun- targets or mandates for biofuels in the transportation sector. These man- tries increase their use of technology and become more mechanized. dates have resulted in large-scale investment in biofuels and expansion In Vietnam, for example, energy accounted for 18 percent of total of crop area to produce biofuel crops. If these biofuel mandates were operating costs for maize in 2000 (IFPRI 2001). Newer estimates will met through domestically grown feedstocks alone, they would require likely show larger energy contributions to total production cost. 30 percent of US agricultural area to be dedicated to produce fuel for Because of rising energy costs, agriculture-intensive producers transportation; in Europe, the share would be 72 percent (Ewing et will see their cost of producing, transporting, and processing agricul- al. 2010). The increased biofuel demand during 2000–2007, com- tural commodities rise. Higher energy prices will induce farmers to shift pared with previous rates of growth, is estimated to have accounted for to less energy-intensive crops. At the same time, energy-saving agri- 30 percent of the increase in weighted average grain prices during this cultural practices such as conservation tillage, low-water-pressure and period, resulting in a significant increase in the number of malnourished low-water-use irrigation, and improved fertilizer management will become children (Rosegrant 2008; Rosegrant et al. 2008a). Moreover, the actu- more profitable. 26 Sustainable Food Security under Land, Water, and Energy Stresses | Chapter 03 | 2012 Global Hunger Index Energy prices will also affect how water resources are used. It will become more expensive to extract and convey irrigation water—particularly using pump irrigation—and to desalinize seawater for drinking and household use. The higher cost of obtaining water will create incentives to develop more efficient mechanisms for allocating water and to reduce water losses, leaks, and runoff. Government subsidies for water and ener- Tomnissoi Davlat gy services and fertilizers will become increasingly expensive and may District Baljuvon,Tajikistan become fiscally unsustainable for many developing countries. This situation could provide incentives for reforming water policies and reducing subsidies. To date, however, there is little evidence of such reform. Higher energy prices also drive higher demand for hydroelectric power—often with positive impacts for domestic, industrial, and irrigation uses, but also with adverse social and ecological effects, such as resettlements “This year, I only harvested 500 kilograms of wheat per hectare. I sowed my seeds too late because fuel prices rose sharply at the beginning of spring.... Once I had enough money for fuel and plowing services, it was too late.” and loss of fish and other freshwater ecosystem services. LAND. Globally, agriculture occurs within a context of land scarcity, both because the world’s best arable land is already under cultivation and because agricultural practices have led to the degradation of significant amounts of farmland. At the same time, the rising demand for nonfood products (feed, fuel, and fiber) is putting additional pressure on agricultural production and on land use. Cultivated systems11 cover 25 percent of the globe’s terrestrial Robert Mugabe Kabarole District, Uganda surface. A 10–20 percent increase in current crop area and pastureland may be needed to meet growing food demand. This increase would come mainly from grassland and forestland (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005a, b). Demand for nonfood agricultural products could push the need for land significantly higher. Such an expansion will have both direct and indirect impacts on other ecosystems and particularly on biodiversity. Intensification—that is, practices that allow for greater output from a given amount of land—will be key to minimizing the conversion of natural land to cropland and thereby preserving terrestrial biodiversity. At the same time, if poorly man- “I have no income. I only have a couple of acres to cultivate maize, cabbage, beans, tomatoes, and onions. At the same time I have to care for my mother and sister. So the increasing prices made it very stressful for me to buy paraffin and firewood. But I’m working hard and selling some of my products…. The most important thing is that we have enough to eat. So we are saving on energy. Instead of using four paraffin lamps to light the house, we now use only one.” aged, intensification can increase runoff of fertilizers and pesticides into water bodies, adversely affecting public health and inland and coastal aquatic ecosystems. Unsustainable agricultural practices have already resulted in land degradation, including desertification, deforestation, salinization, and soil erosion. The causes underlying these forms of land degradation include high population density, poverty, lack of land tenure, and lack of access to extension services and other forms of knowledge, infra- Fulmani Mandi structure, and markets (Nkonya et al. 2011). Distortionary trade policies, Jharkhand, India output price policies, and input subsidies, particularly for water and fer- “I am very worried about my children’s future. Now we tilizer, have also contributed to degradation. One way of assessing land degradation is to measure the loss of net primary production—essentially, the decline in vegetative vigor. 12 Figure 3.5 shows the loss of net primary production from 1981 to have 2.5 acres of land. I have three sons. When they divide the land, each one of them will get only 0.8 acre, which is of no use. I don’t know how they will survive.” 2012 Global Hunger Index | Chapter 03 | Sustainable Food Security under Land, Water, and Energy Stresses 27 FIGURE 3.5 LOSS OF ANNUAL NET PRIMARY PRODUCTION, 1981–2003 Loss of NPP (kg/ha/year) 0–10 10–20 20–30 30–40 40–50 50–60 >60 no data Source: Nkonya et al. (2011), based on data from Bai et al. (2008). Note: The boxes on the map outline key areas of land degradation. 2003. Substantial degradation has occurred in most parts of the eutrophication of lakes and oceans, and damage to mangrove swamps world. Past efforts to combat land degradation have often focused on that support rich fisheries and provide many ecosystems services such drylands, where degradation causes desertification. However, the as water filtration and prevention of erosion (Rosegrant, Nkonya, and highest rate of degradation took place in humid and subhumid areas Valmonte-Santos 2009). (marked by rectangles in Figure 3.5), which accounted for 78 percent Forests have important rainfall-regulating functions. Tropi- of land degradation over this period (Nkonya et al. 2011). The imme- cal forests can soak up storm water and then release it slowly, diate causes of land degradation include biophysical causes, includ- reducing flood and drought cycles. Water-regulating functions are ing topography, which determines soil erosion hazard, and climatic particularly important in upper watersheds, where forests also help conditions, such as rainfall, wind, and temperature. Unsustainable reduce soil erosion and thus prevent river sedimentation. Despite land management, such as deforestation, forest degradation, soil these and other important ecosystem functions, deforestation has nutrient mining, and cultivation on steep slopes, also contributes also been significant in much of the world, as shown in Figure 3.6. directly to land degradation. The most serious deforestation has taken place in Africa and Cen- For agricultural producers, farm-level land degradation can tral and South America. Some good news is also evident: refores- lower crop yields and raise production costs because farmers need to tation is occurring in East, South, and West Asia and in the Carib- apply more fertilizers and other inputs to offset yield losses. Degrada- bean. China has led the way in East Asia, with aggressive policies tion can also have off-site costs in the form of excessive runoff of supporting reforestation. However, deforestation has accelerated in fertilizers and pesticides, siltation of dams and irrigation systems, Southeast Asia. 28 Sustainable Food Security under Land, Water, and Energy Stresses | Chapter 03 | 2012 Global Hunger Index FIGURE 3.6 CHANGE IN FORESTED AREA BY REGION, 1990–2010 1990–2000 2000–2010 Caribbean West Asia South Asia Europe Central Asia North America North Africa World Central Africa Southeast Asia Oceania Southern Africa South America East Africa West Africa Central America -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0 0.5 1.0 Annual % change in forested area Source: Computed by Ephraim Nkonya, IFPRI, based on FAO (2011c). One outcome of the scarcity and degradation of farmland is the grow- agriculture accounts for a small share of gross domestic product ing number of deals giving land-scarce or resource-demanding coun- (GDP) (less than 5 percent) and where hunger is low or moderate (a tries access to farmland in land-abundant countries. Of the approxi- GHI score of less than 10) received land investments affecting about mately 1,000 international land deals (many of which are implemented 1.2 million hectares. In contrast, 32 countries where agriculture with national partners) recorded as of May 2012, 46 percent targeted accounts for a higher share of GDP (more than 5 percent) and hun- land in Sub-Saharan Africa and 37 percent land in Asia (International ger is serious or alarming (a GHI score of more than 10) received Land Coalition 2012). Among the 665 international land investments investments affecting about 41 million hectares, accounting for the that report a specific crop, 55 percent relate to biofuel production, bulk of the total investment—73 percent. Thus, the majority of inter- 19 percent to forestry products for wood and fiber and flowers, and the national land deals to date have occurred in those countries that expe- remainder to food production. Altogether, as of May 2012, the recorded rience higher levels of hunger and where the population and nation- deals affected 57 million hectares of agricultural land, or 1.2 percent al incomes depend heavily on agriculture. In 17 of those, of global agricultural area (International Land Coalition 2012). It is international land deals account for more than 5 percent of current important to note that foreign investment in land also has important agricultural area, and in 7 countries, land deals account for more than implications for local water availability and use (Anseeuw et al. 2012a). 10 percent of total agricultural area: Cambodia, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Figure 3.7 presents the size of land deals as a share of agri- Lao PDR, Liberia, the Philippines, and Sierra Leone. Out of the 245 cultural area for 52 target countries, relative to the importance of land deals in these seven countries where the commodity grown is agriculture in each country and its GHI score. Four countries where known, 75 deals or 31 percent are for trees, including acacia, euca- 2012 Global Hunger Index | Chapter 03 | Sustainable Food Security under Land, Water, and Energy Stresses 29 lyptus, rubber, and flowers; 112 deals or 46 percent of all invest- One country, Republic of Congo, has a high GHI score, a low share of ments with known crops relate to biofuels; and the remainder are for agricultural GDP (less than 5 percent) and limited international land other agricultural commodities. investment (approximately 100,000 hectares); 13 countries have a Research to date reveals high social and environmental risks of low GHI score partnered with agricultural GDP greater than 5 per- such investments, while the promised benefits often fail to materialize cent, accounting for 25 percent of total land investment areas. This (see also case studies in Chapter 4). Both anecdotal and emerging case group includes such agricultural heavyweights as Argentina, Brazil, study evidence has shown that local and national land rights systems and China, as well as Malaysia, which accounts for the largest num- in most of these countries remain weak; as a result, local communities ber of land deals as a share of national agricultural area. Other coun- that once used some of the land acquired by foreign governments and tries in this group with investments greater than 500,000 hectares companies have lost their traditional or customary rights. include Ghana, Peru, and Ukraine. FIGURE 3.7 TYPOLOGY OF LAND ACQUISITIONS ACCORDING TO 2012 GHI SCORE AND AGRICULTURAL GDP 65 Size of land deals as a % of agricultural area 60 LBR 0.01 55 20.00 50 40.00 NER SLE ETH Agriculture as a % of GDP 45 61.24 40 MLI NGA 35 KHM MOZ RWA BFA LAO 30 MWI GHA TZA 25 MDG KEN UGA CIV SDN VNM PAK 20 SEN CMR ZWE IDN 15 THA MYS 10 UKR AGO PER COL CRI ZMB SWZ ECU SUR RUS MEX CHL 2 GTM CHN BRA 0 BOL PHL ARG TUR 5 BGD IND COG ZAF 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 2012 GHI score Source: Anseeuw et al. (2012b). 30 Sustainable Food Security under Land, Water, and Energy Stresses | Chapter 03 | 2012 Global Hunger Index WATER. Currently, 36 percent of the global population—approximately steeper in water-scarce basins (Rosegrant, Ringler, and Zhu 2009). 2.4 billion people—live in water-scarce regions, and 22 percent of the Thus, current levels of water productivity, under a scenario of medi- world's GDP (US$9.4 trillion at 2000 prices) is produced in water- um economic growth, will not be sufficient to ensure sustainability scarce areas. Moreover, 39 percent of global grain production is unsus- and reduce risks to people, food systems, and economies. By 2050, tainable in terms of water use (Ringler et al. 2011), and 1.4 billion peo- it is projected that under ”business as usual” 52 percent of the glob- ple live in areas with sinking groundwater levels (FAO 2009). al population (4.8 billion people), 49 percent of global grain produc- Water resources are distributed unequally across the globe, tion, and 45 percent of total GDP (US$63 trillion at 2000 prices) generally not in proportion to respective populations or land areas. For will be at risk due to water stress. This water stress will likely affect example, in 2005 per capita water availability in the most populous coun- key investment decisions; increase operational costs in the water, tries—China and India—was fairly low, at 1,691 and 1,101 cubic meters, energy, and food sectors; and affect the competitiveness of water- respectively. In contrast, per capita water availability in Brazil (ranked scarce regions (Ringler et al. 2011). fifth in terms of population) was 32,525 cubic meters and in Russia (ranked seventh in terms of population), 28,259 cubic meters. As a result CLIMATE CHANGE. of demographic changes in China and India, water availability is expect- irrigated systems in Asia, is extremely vulnerable to the adverse impacts Agriculture, particularly rainfed systems in Africa and ed to further decline to 1,507 and 856 cubic meters per capita respec- of climate change (ADB/IFPRI 2009; Nelson et al. 2009a; Nelson et tively by 2030, but subnational variations will be much larger.13 Falken- al. 2010). FAO estimates that by 2085, climate change could result in mark, Lundqvist and Widstrand (1989) suggest that per capita annual the loss of 11 percent of arable land in developing countries. For Afri- water availability of less than 1,000 cubic meters limits economic ca, the estimate is far higher (FAO 2012). development and human health and well-being, and availability of less Higher temperatures reduce crop yields in much of the world than 500 cubic meters, experienced in much of the Middle East and while encouraging the proliferation of weeds, plant diseases, and pests. North Africa, constitutes a major constraint to life. Changes in precipitation patterns shift growing seasons and increase Agriculture consumes 80 percent of the world’s “blue water” the likelihood of crop failure in the short run and production declines from rivers and aquifers, and is therefore both vulnerable to water scar- in the long run. Although climate change could lead to gains in yields city and a contributor to it (Rosegrant, Cai, and Cline 2002). Water and cultivated area for some crops and in some regions, the overall scarcity is exacerbated by climate change, especially in the driest areas impacts on agricultural production are projected to be highly negative, of the world, which are home to more than 2 billion people and to half with increasing food prices intensifying the risk of hunger. of all poor people. Moreover, increased flooding as a result of climate According to Parry et al. (2009), the number of people at risk change and environmental degradation threatens agriculture in many of hunger is projected to increase by 10–20 percent by 2050 because parts of the world. of climate change. IFPRI IMPACT projections show increases in the Besides population growth, other factors affect current and number of malnourished children of up to 21 percent by 2050 as a future global water use. Economic growth, for example, increases demand for water by households, industries, and farmers. Urbanization is associated with more water-intensive diets (meats, milk, vege- Kaseija Jailesi and Irene Kaseija tables, and sugars). Higher energy prices raise the cost of pumping water for irrigation and increase demand for hydropower. Climate change is raising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns, directly increasing demand and reducing availability of water for both rainfed and irrigated agriculture across the world. Kabarole District, Potential for growth in water supplies is limited, but domestic Uganda and industrial demand for water is growing rapidly. As a result, water is being transferred from agriculture to domestic and industrial uses (Rosegrant, Cai, and Cline 2002). This transfer will make irrigation water scarcer in rapidly growing, less-developed countries, and particularly in China and some countries in the Middle East and North Africa. By 2050 only 66 percent of irrigation water demands can likely be met, down from 78 percent in 2000. The decline will be much “Already now it is difficult to reach the wells, as you have to cross people’s land to reach them. That is prohibited though, and many landowners even fence in their land. With the worsening of the land situation, the water situation will become more difficult.” 2012 Global Hunger Index | Chapter 03 | Sustainable Food Security under Land, Water, and Energy Stresses 31 result of climate change (Nelson et al. 2009a). Because the impact of The Sustainable World scenario postulates an increased focus on the climate change on child malnutrition is projected to be greatest in Sub- conservation of water, land, and energy resources through more invest- Saharan Africa, efforts to improve the various dimensions of the GHI ment in technologies and more efficient resource use. It focuses on need to be particularly strengthened there. those investments that reduce hunger and malnutrition, such as At the same time, agriculture contributes 9 percent to global enhanced crop yields and livestock growth and increased investments greenhouse gas emissions. If land use change and deforestation, which in sanitation and female secondary education. Other factors are also are linked directly to agriculture, are added, the total contribution crucial for better outcomes for the poor and the environment, includ- increases to 17 percent of global emissions (WRI 2010). Three-quarters ing improved governance, reduced inequality and greater inclusion of of all agricultural emissions stem from developing countries. Thus, the marginalized social groups.15 Compared with the Conventional World, task at hand will be to identify those interventions that reduce the this scenario includes both higher economic growth and lower popula- adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture and at the same time tion growth (using the UN low-variant projection of population growth) reduce agriculture’s carbon footprint. (see also Nelson et al. 2010). Moreover, the scenario projects rapid increases in water productivity and agricultural growth with increased ALTERNATIVE PATHWAYS UNDER GROWING NATURAL RESOURCE SCARCITY efficiency in the use of research, among other things, as a result of Over the next four decades, agricultural production will need to increase spillover effects. As a result, by 2030, grain yields are 15 percent great- substantially to meet the demands of a growing and increasingly wealthy er than in the Conventional World scenario, and by 2050, they are 35 population. With current levels of investment and economic develop- percent larger. Livestock yields and herd size increase by 30 percent from ment, however, projected production increases can be achieved only 2015 to 2050 compared with the Conventional World Scenario. More- at much higher prices. An alternative vision or model for development over, there is a more aggressive move toward second-generation biofuel would seek not only to increase future production, but also to achieve development. The Sustainable World scenario also meets a climate change better outcomes for the poor and pay more attention to sustainability, target of no more than a 2˚C rise in temperature. Increased investments reducing adverse environmental impacts. Future demand could be low- help ensure that all girls have access to secondary schooling by 2030 and ered somewhat by more resource-conserving lifestyle choices and a all people have access to safe drinking water by 2050. move away from first-generation technologies for large-scale produc- These two development pathways have significantly different tion of biofuels, for example, but the need to produce more with less— results for land and water. Under the Conventional World scenario, total and to do so more sustainably and in a manner that prioritizes the harvested crop area is expected to grow globally at 0.23 percent a year, poor—will remain. or 169 million hectares in total, during the period 2005–2050. The con- To assess the relative impact of two alternative development tractions in crop area in some industrial and Asian countries are more pathways in 2030 and 2050, IFPRI modeled the future world food than offset by increases in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Much system under two scenarios: of the area expansion, however, will come from marginal and forest areas. In the Sustainable World scenario, important forest areas can be pre- 1. The Conventional World scenario (as shown in Figure 3.3 on page served as crop area contracts by 116 million hectares by 2030, and by 24) reflects a continuation of recent trends in population and eco- 201 million hectares by 2050. Furthermore, total water withdrawals are nomic growth and other variables, including limited investment 544 cubic kilometers lower by 2030, and 1,369 cubic kilometers below in agricultural research and thus in land, water, and energy effi- Conventional World levels by 2050. This scenario thus releases large ciency. First- generation biofuel development continues following resources for important domestic and environmental water needs. set mandates. Moreover, greenhouse gas emissions rapidly The two scenarios also have divergent results for food prices and increase, water scarcity grows, and hunger and malnutrition nutrition. As a result of very high agricultural productivity growth in the remain serious problems in developing countries (Nelson et al. Sustainable World scenario, average cereal prices are 21 percent lower by 2010; Rosegrant et al. 2008a). 2030 and 39 percent lower by 2050 compared with the Conventional World scenario. Significantly lower food prices under the Sustainable World 2. The Sustainable World scenario (as shown in Figure 5.1 on page 47) scenario boost affordability and thus access to food, increasing daily cal- focuses on increased agricultural research and development spend- orie availability in the developing world by 496 kilocalories per capita by ing in developing countries, coupled with increased social invest- 2030, and by 1,336 kilocalories per capita by 2050. Thanks to large new ments and more judicious use of natural resources to sustainably agricultural and social investments in developing countries, as well as more improve rural livelihoods and incomes.14 efficient use and preservation of natural resources, the Sustainable World 32 Sustainable Food Security under Land, Water, and Energy Stresses | Chapter 03 | 2012 Global Hunger Index scenario results in 50 million malnourished children in 2050, compared with 115 million in the Conventional World scenario - a sharp decline of 57 percent. In India, for example, which is home to the largest number of malnourished children, the proportion of malnourished children would decline to 27 percent in the Sustainable World scenario by 2050, compared with 39 percent in the Conventional World scenario. The calculations show that eradicating hunger in the near and Ato Liben Boru Liben Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia medium term is a complex, multifaceted challenge. Significant achievements can be made through changes in investments and policies. Key “Pastoralists are migrating to urban areas because factors that can make a difference for child malnutrition include accel- of high competition for water and pasture. However, only a few are successful in securing a job or engaging in income-generating activities, like opening small shops.” erated growth in a diversity of crops, access to safe drinking water, and full female secondary school enrollment. Many of these changes both contribute to and will be driven by higher economic growth and slower population growth. The Sustainable World scenario assumes continued use of land and water resources for first-generation biofuel production following current mandates, but has a much larger focus on secondgeneration technologies. Removing current biofuel mandates would arguably have additional positive impacts for the eradication of child malnutrition, as well as water, land, and biodiversity conservation. A sustainable vision for 2050 would mean that everyone in the Lespérence Fedner world has access to, and is empowered to make use of, food, modern Technical Coordinator energy, and clean water while at the same time ecosystem degradation Welthungerhilfe, Jean Rabel, Haiti is halted or reversed. In the Sustainable World scenario, humankind makes large strides toward reducing hunger and improving water access but cannot entirely eliminate hunger and malnutrition by 2050. Achieving that goal would require additional targeted policies and institutional investments in key food crisis areas and other targeted, supporting measures (such as social support systems) for those suffering from chronic hunger (see also Runge et al. 2003). The UN also projects low- and high-variant scenarios of population growth. Determinants of fertility rate change are social, cultural, and economic variables, such as women’s education level, employment status, urban-rural residence, household poverty, the cost of raising children, the cost of contraception, women’s autonomy, and husband’s occupation (World Bank 2007). 11 Cultivated systems are defined as areas where at least 30 percent of the landscape is in croplands, shifting cultivation, confined livestock production, or freshwater aquaculture. 12 Net primary production is the rate of carbon dioxide fixation by vegetation minus losses through respiration. It is a widely used indicator of land degradation for global and regional studies because it can be captured by satellite, making it relatively inexpensive to measure. Another major advantage is that long-term time-series data are available, allowing for comparison of land degradation over time. 13 These projections were calculated using IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade, or IMPACT. 14 A summary of these two scenarios is presented in Ozkaynak et al. (2012). The outcomes for these two scenarios were modeled using IFPRI's IMPACT model. IMPACT is designed to examine alternative futures for global food supply, demand, trade, prices, and food security. It covers 45 commodities, which account for virtually all of world food production and consumption. It is specified as a set of 115 country-level supply and demand equations where each country model is linked to the rest of the world through trade. To explore food security effects, IMPACT projects the percentage and number of malnourished preschool children (0 to 5 years old) in developing countries as a function of average per capita calorie availability, the share of females with secondary schooling, the ratio of female to male life expectancy at birth, and the percentage of the population with access to safe water. The model is integrated with a Water Simulation Module and a Global Hydrologic Model to assess the impacts of water supply and demand and climate change, respectively, on food outcomes. The model includes energy crops but not a full energy model. 15 Many of these factors, however, can only be assessed qualitatively; they are outside the reach of quantitative simulation models. “My expenses in terms of energy and water have increased sharply in recent years. Moreover, because of the problems of environmental degradation, water is increasingly scarce, and rare from the taps at home. I have to build a private tank to store water for household needs in periods of little water.” 9 10 Florence Akiiki Bamuturaki Kabarole District, Uganda “In the future, I am confident that there will be enough water and energy for our people as the country is developing.... I’m afraid the access to land is going to be a big problem in the nearer future. There will not be enough land for everyone. Our population is growing too fast, whereas land is a static resource which doesn’t grow according to the population living on it.” 2012 Global Hunger Index | Chapter 03 | Sustainable Food Security under Land, Water, and Energy Stresses 33 04 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – “Equitable access to land and natural resources is an essential element of the right to food for rural populations in general and for vulnerable and marginalized groups in particular.” – – – 34 – FAO Right to Food, 2008 Name des Teilbereich | Chapter 1 | 2012 Global Hunger Index THE CENTRALITY OF LAND, WATER, AND ENERGY FOR SMALLHOLDERS Smallholder farmers are among the poorest and most food-insecure trast to the decades before the war—Sierra Leone is a net importer people in the world. They live in the most ecologically and climati- of food. At the same time, 50–60 percent of the population depends cally vulnerable regions of the world and must draw their livelihoods on farming for its livelihood. These are mostly small-scale, peasant from these same conditions. In the face of multiple challenges, it is farmers who rely on the bush fallow system, in which fields are cul- small-scale farmers who feed the majority of the world, producing food tivated for a few years until soil fertility is depleted and then left fal- for about 70 percent of the world’s population (ETC Group 2009). For low for 10 to 15 years. many of these farmers, scarcity scenarios are nothing new. Because of the neglect of agricultural and rural development Vast Lands Available for Smallholders as well as for over past decades, secure land tenure and access to safe water and Large-scale Foreign Investment? energy supplies have remained out of reach for many people, while To deal with low productivity and food insecurity, the government of national agricultural sectors have suffered structural deficits and low Sierra Leone is promoting agricultural modernization by means of productivity. mechanization and commercialization. In 2010, a five-year US$400 The “triple-F” crises (food, fuel, and finance) and the emerg- million Smallholder Commercialisation Programme (SCP) was launched ing scarcity scenarios discussed in Chapter 3 have helped push agri- with the aim of linking smallholders to markets and commercial value culture to the top of the global policy agenda, forcing governments and chains.16 A new emphasis on large-scale, commercial agriculture has international institutions to rethink the ways in which the world produces also emerged, with the government campaigning to attract foreign and distributes food. This is resulting in a renewed emphasis on the direct investment in agriculture. Investment delegations from China potential of agriculture, and governments in recent years have intensi- and elsewhere were received by the president; trade and investment fied efforts to commercialize their agricultural sectors. forums were held in London and Freetown in 2009 and 2011 respec- Such initiatives can already be observed in Sierra Leone and tively; and the Sierra Leone Investment and Export Promotion Agency Tanzania, where Welthungerhilfe, Concern Worldwide, and their part- (SLIEPA), supported by the European Union and other donor funding, ners cooperate with farmers in the areas of agriculture, rural devel- promises investors “easy access to land with smooth facilitation process” opment, and food security. The governments of both countries have (SLIEPA 2012a). adopted initiatives to accelerate agricultural growth through both SLIEPA argues that there are vast areas of available land with the commercialization of smallholders and the promotion of large- “only 15 percent of the country’s 5.4 million hectares of cultivatable scale corporate farming. As these initiatives gather pace, the situa- land being farmed as recently as 2003” (SLIEPA 2012b). These fig- tion in which smallholder producers find themselves is becoming ures contrast with a study by the German Ministry of Economic Coop- increasingly precarious. eration and Development (BMZ) indicating that much of the land is In Sierra Leone, local farmers have already lost land to largescale investors. Civil society is organizing itself, demanding transpar- already overused and little room exists for agricultural expansion (Bald and Schroeder 2011). ency, and challenging the dominant notion of “agricultural modernization,” which has already resulted in the acquisition of approximately The “Big Push”—For Whose Benefit? 20 percent of the agricultural land available by foreign enterprises. In Between 2008 and mid-2012, almost 1 million hectares of farmland the case of Tanzania, Concern is supporting smallholders to secure land across the country were leased or under negotiation for lease.17 Inves- title and improve their access to water as the government advances a tors are predominantly interested in oil palm, sugarcane, and food crops wider program to transform the agricultural sector. such as rice—evidence of the extent to which land acquisitions are driven particularly by the food and fuel crises. Most of the projects are export oriented, and at least one investor—the Swiss-based Addax Bio- How pressure for land transforms rural livelihoods in Sierra Leone energy, leasing 44,000 hectares in the northern Bombali District of Since emerging from a civil war that lasted from 1991 to 2002, Sierra products in Sierra Leone (Anane and Abiwu 2011). Sierra Leone for the production of sugarcane—aims to produce ethanol for export to the European Union and to sell electricity from the by- Leone has been working to overcome severe poverty and food inse- Although investors are looking to satisfy consumption needs in curity. In spite of those efforts, the level of food insecurity remains the global North, it is argued that large-scale foreign direct investment alarming (the country’s 2012 GHI score is 24.7). Domestic produc- in agriculture can also have benefits for the local population (see, for tion of a range of food items falls short of local demand and—in con- example, World Bank 2011a). The following case study by Welthun- 2012 Global Hunger Index | Chapter 04 | The Centrality of Land, Water, and Energy for Smallholders 35 gerhilfe and the Sierra Leonean nongovernmental organization Green tion Socfin registered in Luxemburg—leased 6,500 hectares of land in Scenery takes a closer look at the reality behind the rhetoric and the the area to grow oil palm and rubber for export. The lease covers approx- impact of large-scale land investments on the food and livelihood secu- imately one-quarter of the area of Malen Chiefdom and includes 24 vil- rity of the rural poor in Sierra Leone. lages (see map on page 37). It is effective for 50 years, with the pos- 18 sibility of extension for another 21 years. As a direct result of this lease Case Study: SAC investment in Malen Chiefdom, Pujehun District agreement, smallholder farmers no longer have access to agricultural Welthungerhilfe had been working in Pujehun District since 2007, land and forested areas, and most project activities that Welthungerhil- engaging with smallholder farmers to rehabilitate rural infrastructure, fe had undertaken in partnership with local farmers have had to stop. increase incomes, and foster food security through efficient and envi- In this case, as in many others, there are two major concerns relat- ronmentally safe use of available natural resources. In 2011 Socfin Agri- ing to the land deal: the way in which the acquisition is decided upon and cultural Company Sierra Leone Ltd (SAC)—a subsidiary of the corpora- the impact on local food and livelihood security (Anseeuw et al. 2012b). BOX 4.1 TIMELINE OF THE INVESTMENT OF SOCFIN AGRICULTURAL COMPANY SIERRA LEONE LTD. (SAC) IN MALEN CHIEFDOM 2009 From April 2011 onward Feasibility study was conducted in the area (involving, for example, Farmers’ oil palm plantations were measured to determine com- soil samples and surveying). The general population was not informed. pensation. Existing oil palm plantations were cleared. Operations in nursery started. Infrastructure was prepared. September 2010 At a chiefdom meeting in Sahn Malen, the paramount chief May 30, 2011 informed representatives of the local communities that a company At a stakeholder meeting in Pujehun, the conflicting parties recon- would come and take over the former government plantation. ciled and expressed their intention to work together for the wellbeing of the people. February 2011 At a chiefdom meeting in Sahn Malen, the paramount chief June 4, 2011 informed community representatives that all the land in the chief- At a chiefdom meeting in Sahn Malen, the contract was fully read dom would be taken over by SAC to plant oil palm and rubber. publically for the first time and partly translated into the local lan- Malen landowners expressed unwillingness to lease land. guage Mende. The legality of the contract was questioned. February/March 2011 October 2011 Village chief of Semabu held meeting. The community expressed con- Concerned landowners published a statement detailing their griev- cern about what would happen to their plantations and food produc- ances (Malen Land Owners Association, “Grievances of Land Own- tion. Paramount Chief (PC) said that all land would be taken by the ers in Malen Chiefdom,” letter to district officer of Pujehun Dis- company, with or without consent. When people asked where to get trict, October 2, 2011, accessible at www.greenscenery.org). food, the PC said they should buy it using the money that they receive. More than 100 landowners blocked access to the area leased by SAC. Forty were arrested; 15 were charged on counts of riotous conduct, conspiracy, and threatening language. March 5, 2011 At a chiefdom meeting in Sahn Malen, the lease agreement was to be signed. Armed police were present. Village chiefs who signed Source: Melbach (2012). got money to redistribute to the landowning families in their village. Villagers and village chiefs who did not want to sign kept away from the meeting. According to the lease agreement only five of the nine sections of Malen signed. 36 The Centrality of Land, Water, and Energy for Smallholders | Chapter 04 | 2012 Global Hunger Index “There was never a chance to say ‘no’ to the land deal; we felt coerced.” Rural land in Sierra Leone is held by landowning families, with a chieftaincy structure that plays a significant administrative and custodial role. There exists a strong, pervasive notion of the fundamental inalien- S. J. ability of land from the landowning extended families and chiefdoms. Sinjo village, Malen Chiefdom, Thus, traditionally land is not leased but allocated. Statutory law, how- Sierra Leone ever, provides a procedure for non natives to acquire leaseholds, requiring the consent of both the chiefdom and local councils. Investors can either lease land directly from the landowners or sublease from the government as the primary leaseholder. “Today I have a quarter of what I used to have. The food situation is far worse than before because there is no more farming. We used to eat two times a day; now we eat only once a day and we have to buy everything. I paid 200,000 SLL to the Socfin [SAC] foreman for my four children to get employment. I told them [my children] I am going through challenges and that they have to work; four sons work now for the company. One son I have taken out of school to work in the plantations instead.” SIERRA LEONE Kono Betty Sengeh Western Area Kailahun Kenema Sinjo village, Malen Chiefdom, Sierra Leone Bo “Sometimes our family has to take credit or a loan; Pujehun currently our debts amount to 1,100,000 SLL. Out of this, 200,000 SLL are food debts. It is the first time that we have had food debts. For the past two months I have not been able to pay back any debt because my children who work with the company were inadequately paid. We expected annual payments for the plantations we owned, but this did not materialize.” Pujehun “I was employed by Socfin, but then I got sick and Project Districts of Welthungerhilfe Malen Chiefdom Area affected by SAC investment Source: Welthungerhilfe/Green Scenery based on official maps. had to stop. Previously I used to work on our own farmland, now I am just sitting at home.… For the short term, I do not see any benefit in this development. For the long term, I don’t know. I have little understanding of what they want to achieve. If I do get that understanding, it may help me to determine whether there is future benefit. We don’t understand much, because we see how the chief, the company, and the authorities are more together than they are with us.” 2012 Global Hunger Index | Chapter 04 | The Centrality of Land, Water, and Energy for Smallholders 37 In Malen Chiefdom, the SAC investment was presented as a far smaller At the time the agreement was concluded, some villages, hoping for new deal than was actually the case. Local landowners and users were employment and education opportunities, accepted the terms imposed. informed only after the decision had been made by the tribal authori- The anticipated opportunities, however, did not materialize. By August ties and were told to thumb print or sign without knowing or under- 2011, two more villages that had been more favourable toward the deal standing the details of the agreement. Indeed, it was a full three months initially, had become critical. after the contract had been signed that it was fully read out publicly with ad hoc translation into the local language (see Box 4.1). “We used to have far more food.” The land lease rent, amounting to US$5 per acre (US$12.50 In times gone by, Malen Chiefdom was a farming society with a consid- per hectare) per year, was fixed by the government rather than erable degree of self-sufficiency. Today, it is a quasi-landless society negotiated with farmers. Landowners receive only 50 percent of the dependent on uncertain and irregular demand for labor and suffering all yearly lease payment, while the other half is divided between the the anxiety and uncertainty that comes with such dependency. different levels of government administration (the district and the When SAC took over the land, farmers received a one-time pay- chiefdom each receive 20 percent, and the national government ment amounting to 1 million leones (SLL) (approximately US$220) for receives 10 percent). every acre of oil palm plantation lost. No compensation was offered for TABLE 4.1 PRICES OF SELECTED FOODS IN PUJEHUN DISTRICT, SIERRA LEONE, 2011–12 Product Unit Prices (SLL) in May 2011 Prices (SLL) in May 2012 Average price change (%) Village Local Regional market market market Average Village Local Regional market market market Average Local rice Cup 1,000 n.a. 1,200 1,100 1,100 1,200 1,200 1,167 +6.1 Imported rice Cup 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 933 978 -2.2 Raw cassava Kg 500 n.a. 1,000 750 917 2,000 1,333 1,417 +88.9 Cup 250 250 200 233 400 300 n.a. 350 +50.2 Pint 1,000 1,000 1,200 1,067 1,400 1,500 1,433 1,444 +35.3 800 1,000 850 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 +17.7 Processed cassava (gari) Local palm oil (dura variety) Masanke palm oil (tenera variety) Pint 700– 800 Sweet potato Pile 500 n.a. 1,000 750 917 1,000 1,333 1,083 +44.4 Flour Cup 1,000 900 1,000 967 n.a. 1,100 1,500 1,300 +34.4 Salt Cup 700 800 n.a. 750 1,000 500 500 667 -11.1 Sugar Cup 2,000 2,200 2,000 2,067 2,000 2,000 2,500 2,167 +4.8 Note: n.a. = not available. Source: Prices were recorded by Welthungerhilfe project staff. However, village-level prices were taken in different locations within the region affected by the lease in 2011 and 2012. The inflation rate of 2011 was 18.5 percent and is estimated to decline to 8.5 percent in 2012 (World Bank 2011a). 38 The Centrality of Land, Water, and Energy for Smallholders | Chapter 04 | 2012 Global Hunger Index other crops. This amount is relatively small compared with the annual income farmers would otherwise have earned—income that many families used to pay to send their children to school. In the smallholder cultivation system, each family member contributed to the farm’s success. Today, the large-scale plantation requires Sama Amara less labor, and former farm households must rely on the income of indi- Kortumahun village, vidual family members. Jobs are largely casual, and labor is recruited Malen Chiefdom, Sierra Leone on a day-to-day basis. While the plantation attracts a lot of laborers from outside the area, no provision is made for the employment of those women and men who have leased their land. Although payment levels at the plantations are in accordance with similar investment projects in Sierra Leone, a daily wage of US$2.20 (SLL 10,000) is insufficient to cover the food needs of a family, especially in view of rising consumer prices. Between May 2011 and May 2012, market prices for food in the region affected “The resources we had from the plantations are depleted. For example, cassava and rice were available all year round. I used to store palm oil and groundnuts throughout the year and would sell some whenever food was needed.… Today, our family consumes 8 cups of rice a day; previously we used to eat 20 cups. Still we try to eat two times a day.” by the large-scale land acquisitions have risen by 27 percent, on average (see Table 4.1). As the level of self-sufficiency falls and the price of food rises, access to sufficient food is becoming an issue of concern for many. All those interviewed in May 2012 cited a fall in both the quantity and quality of food available to them since the SAC deal. In particular, interviewees said that they consume less meat since bush meat is much harder to find following the clearing of forested areas for the SAC plantation. The conversion of former agricultural areas and bush land into plantations has had other serious consequences. People are increas- Memai Charles FIGURE 4.1 QUALITY OF COCOA EXPORTED BY THREE COOPERATIVES Kortumahun village, IN SIERRA LEONE, 2008–09 TO 2011–12 Malen Chiefdom, Sierra Leone % of defects in cocoa exports 100 Defects < 10% 80 10–15% 60 15–20% 20–25% 40 > 25% 20 “There is no alternative to earn a living. If there were an alternative, I would not be working with Socfin [SAC]. When I was farming independently, I could decide how much I would eat and how much I would sell. This was good. Now, I am constricted with a small amount of money, and I have to buy everything.” “It is pretty difficult now, because all things are 0 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 being measured. When we did our farming there was no need to measure. And the cost of living is increasing.” Note: High-quality cocoa has less than 10 percent defects. The share of high-quality cocoa rose from less than 10 percent of country exports in 2008–09 to more than 75 percent in 2011–12. Source: Welthungerhilfe Project in cooperation with a distributor. 2012 Global Hunger Index | Chapter 04 | The Centrality of Land, Water, and Energy for Smallholders 39 ingly concerned about the loss of firewood (the primary source of tives “to improve income and well-being of farm families through improved domestic energy, as in most of Sub-Saharan Africa; see Chapter 3, production and marketing of cocoa and coffee” in eastern Sierra Leone. page 24) and more difficult access to herbal medicines. This work, which began in 2007, has involved approximately 10,000 small-scale producers cultivating an average farm size of 2.4 hectares. It Promoting dialogue about alternative forms of investment has shown that substantial improvements in both quantity and quality are National governments are responsible for respecting and protecting possible, even in contexts where production is “atomized” among thou- their citizens’ right to adequate food. In many settings, however, the sands of smallholders. Between 2007 and 2009, average household voices of those who caution against misguided developments that income from coffee and cocoa increased by 81 percent (US$190), and threaten food security are marginalized. It is essential in these cases 15 percent of this increase can be attributed directly to the project (com- to support the efforts of civil society organizations to engage their own paring prices in project and nonproject villages). The quality of the cocoa government representatives in a dialogue about the observed conse- exported through the three project cooperatives has also improved con- quences of policy decisions. siderably (see Figure 4.1). To collect evidence about the impacts of the SAC investment in The above data demonstrates the economic potential of small- Pujehun, Welthungerhilfe and Green Scenery have assisted in setting up holders. With appropriate and adequate support and inexpensive train- a community-based monitoring system and are supporting the local pop- ing methods such as farmer field schools, small-scale producers can ulation in Malen Chiefdom in assessing longer-term livelihood changes. overcome constraints along the value chain while maintaining the At the time of writing, Green Scenery is setting up a database to register diverse and sustainable structures of the cocoa agroforestry systems. all large-scale land acquisitions in Sierra Leone as part of a larger initia- However, the up-scaling and sustainability of such successes tive with other civil society organizations to increase transparency of large- rely to a large extent on the vision of “agricultural modernization” pro- scale investment deals. The information collected will be used to engage moted by the government of Sierra Leone and the priority and support with national-level politicians and the national media about the conse- given to smallholders in that vision. quences of large-scale land deals. This initiative and many more aim to raise awareness about the risks of large-scale foreign direct land investments and to promote alternative models of agricultural investment. In eastern Sierra Leone, smallholder cocoa and coffee farmers face similar constraints as those observed in Pujehun and elsewhere Land title and water in rural Tanzania: Protecting the livelihoods of poor farmers in rural Sierra Leone. Yields are low because of the reliance on low- Tanzania is a country of contrasts. In recent decades, it has experienced productivity varieties and techniques, as well as the advanced age of a healthy economic growth rate, with annual GDP growth between 2012 many trees. Because of poor quality, farmers are paid low prices by and 2016 set to exceed 7 percent. At the same time, it suffered from middlemen. They lack incentives to invest in proper harvesting, fer- drought and food insecurity in 2009 and 2010. In addition, the year-on- menting, drying, or marketing, and many are tied into a credit system year rate of food inflation remains unchanged at 25.3 percent, and the that maintains the status quo. food component of the consumer price index, which accounts for 47.8 While policies are clearly formulated at the national level, the percent of the basket of goods used to measure inflation, has also seen role and functions of the local government in terms of rural development an increase. In 2012, an estimated 1 million people are food insecure are not yet well understood or implemented. The introduction of farm- while 42 percent of households regularly have inadequate food. Tanza- er field schools under the Smallholder Commercialisation Programme, nia ranks 54th in the 2012 GHI out of 79 countries. for example, has yet to reach the majority of households. The cocoa sec- Farming is the mainstay of Tanzanian life, with more than 80 tor is neglected in terms of extension services, and cocoa exports have percent of Tanzanians relying on agriculture for their livelihoods. Of the remained stagnant for many years, far below their pre-war levels. estimated 2.1 million hectares under production, 95 percent is culti- Against this backdrop, the experiences of Welthungerhilfe in vated by smallholder farmers with holdings of between 0.9 and 3.0 Sierra Leone show that—with adequate support—smallholder agricul- hectares. These farmers use traditional methods and produce primarily ture has commercial potential that goes beyond increasing food avail- for subsistence. ability in local and regional markets. These farmers face many challenges including low productivi- Supported by the European Commission, Welthungerhilfe, the ty, dependence on rainfed agriculture, underdeveloped support facili- Agro Eco Louis Bok Institute, and the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Interna- ties, inappropriate technology, impediments to food market access, tionale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) have worked with three national coopera- and low levels of public expenditure. But there is one underlying chal- 40 The Centrality of Land, Water, and Energy for Smallholders | Chapter 04 | 2012 Global Hunger Index Sinaraha Adam Ng’omwa Iringa District, Tanzania “Today or tomorrow I might not be here, and neighbors could encroach if the boundaries are not clear.” Mustafa Kibibi Balizila Kibondo District, Tanzania A completed certificate of customary right of occupancy “Having the certificate is a security for the lenge of which many are unaware. Although more than 90 percent of farmers claim ownership, the reality is that less than 10 percent of Tanzanians hold official title to their land. Tanzania’s 1999 Land Act No. 4 and Village Land Act No. 5 were established to allow smallholder farmers to formalize their land- children so that if I die, they can keep the land. I also added my wife’s name to the certificate, as she is my first wife. I included her because we have worked the land together since we were teenagers, so it is her right as well, and for her children. I think it is important to have her included.” ownership by acquiring a certificate of customary right of occupancy (CCRO). The acts recognize occupancy of land and seek to legally secure existing rights, especially the customary rights of smallholders. to purchase equipment and inputs in order to increase production, food Ali Mtuli and Edna Mafunde security, and livelihood standards. Pawaga Division, They give women the same rights as men to acquire, hold, use, and transfer land, either in their own name or jointly with men, regardless of customary and religious restrictions. Aside from securing land tenure, CCROs were also intended to be used as collateral, enabling farmers Tanzania There have been challenges, however, in implementing the acts. Most occupancy rights have not been registered, and as CCROs are not recognized as instruments of mortgage, financial institutions are reluctant to recognize them as collateral. In addition, while the land laws recognize women’s equal right to secure tenure, customary law and traditional practices can mean these provisions are not realized. Married women are not allowed to transact property without their husband’s “When we have the money we would be interested in getting one [a CCRO] to ensure security of our land. Previously land was not valued, but demand is increasing now, and we hear on the news that people are beginning to grab land, so it is worth protecting.” permission, and attitudes and behaviors can be such that women prefer not to be involved in land issues. 2012 Global Hunger Index | Chapter 04 | The Centrality of Land, Water, and Energy for Smallholders 41 Given these difficulties, the government initiat- THE SOUTHERN AGRICULTURAL Ngara ed a Strategic Plan for the Implementation of GROWTH CORRIDOR OF TANZANIA the Land Acts in 2006. The issuance of land Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (indicative) Concern’s Program Areas Concern’s Country Office title is also a pillar of Kilimo Kwanza, the national strategy that attempts to trans- Kigoma form Tanzanian agriculture into a modern commercial sector. The challenges remain, but the need to accelerate the TANZANIA DAR ES SALAAM process grows as the government actively Source: Based on SAGCOT (2012). Note: The Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor covers approximately one-third of mainland Tanzania. It extends north and south of the central rail, road, and power “backbone” that runs from Dar es Salaam to the northern areas of Zambia and Malawi. Iringa pursues initiatives to increase production and encourage commercial investment in the sector. Concern’s Work on Land Title and Irrigation Concern Worldwide has been working in Tan- Mtwara zania since 1978, when it was invited by the first president, Julius Nyerere, to implement community development projects in Iringa. Located in the southern highlands, this region was once the bread- THE KEY STEPS IN THE CCRO PROCESS ARE AS FOLLOWS: basket of Tanzania. Over the past 20 years, however, Iringa has > suffered persistent periods of drought. In 2011 alone, more than 43,000 of its population of 245,000 required food assistance. Providing resources to district land officers, including GPS stations, computers, registry boxes, land seals, and software; > Holding awareness-raising meetings on Village Land Act No. 5 of 1999 and Land Dispute Act No. 2 of 2002; Land remains of vital importance to the people of Iringa, with 90 percent of the population earning its living from agriculture and > Forming land tribunals and committees; livestock production. Much of the potential remains untapped, howev- > Training tribunals and committees on their responsibilities; er, and while 40 percent of its land is suitable for agriculture, just over > Preparing village land use plans in collaboration with the Village 23.3 percent is actually cultivated. Council and Village Assembly; Securing land title and irrigation are two core elements of > Concern’s work in this region and beyond. Since 2006, Concern’s Demarcating and surveying village boundaries in collaboration with Village Land Committees; livelihoods programs have focused on the fulfilment of the right to > Preparing and issuing the certificates of villages; an adequate standard of living for poor and vulnerable citizens in > Carrying out land adjudication of individual land parcels within the village; Iringa, Kilolo, and Mtwara districts. A key objective of its programs is to increase access to, and control over, land by formalizing own- > ership through acquisition of CCROs. These efforts have borne much fruit. Concern has supported the issuance of more than facilities such as seals, village land registers, and cabinets; > Establishing a database of land-related information such as GPS coordinates for land parcels; 9,500 CCROs, equal to approximately 16 percent of the total number issued across Tanzania since the Land Acts first came into > force in 2001. > Since 2009, Iringa District has demarcated 103 of its 125 vil- Establishing village land registries and equipping registries with Registering and issuing CCROs to individual owners; and Paying the cost per CCRO, per household, as set by the District Land Council of TSh50,000 (US$31.60). lages and issued village land certificates to each in preparation for demarcation and issuance of individual CCROs to households. Concern The Benefits of Land Titling has supported the development of village land use plans in 12 villag- This collaboration has been among the most successful of its kind in es and provided support for all other steps in the titling process with Tanzania in terms of the number of land titles issued. For individual the exception of demarcation and survey of boundaries, for which the farmers, the overwhelming benefit is security. Land titles give farmers District Land and Village Council is responsible. More than 8,000 land legal recognition. If land is appropriated thereafter, compensation must titles have been issued in Iringa District, of which more than 6,000 be paid. This is particularly important in light of a new government ini- were supported by Concern. tiative launched at the World Economic Forum Africa Summit in 2010. 42 The Centrality of Land, Water, and Energy for Smallholders | Chapter 04 | 2012 Global Hunger Index The Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT) encompasses one-third of mainland Tanzania, stretching from Dar Es Salaam in the east to Morogoro, Iringa, Mbeya, and Sumbawanga in the west. It is a strategy designed to empower both smallholder and larger-scale farmers to make a commercial success of farming through partnership with government, businesses, and donors. Over time, this Hamidu N’gulali initiative is likely to have a significant impact on smallholder farmers Ruaha Village, Tanzania as commercial enterprises look to invest in Tanzania. Ensuring that those farmers have secure tenure is an important step in strengthening their position in the future. Access to loans, which enable farmers to invest and increase their yields, is a second tangible benefit of land titling. The process has also clarified the amount of land actually available. Many villages and local authorities have discovered there is not as much land as initially thought. “Growing onions is very demanding, and lack of labor has been a big constraint. It is not possible to prepare your farm and plant on your own. And despite cultivating the whole acre of rice this year, I was still only able to manage 10 bags as the rain stopped earlier this year.” According to the Assistant Commissioner for Land, Southern Zone, Msigwa Malaki, “When the land was demarcated, we thought there was enough; we thought there was idle land. But when it was surveyed, the villages found that they did not have enough land for inclusion under SAGCOT” (Msigwa Malaki, personal communication). Clearer boundaries and ownership of natural resources have reduced the opportunities for The Challenge of Irrigation Safia Mohamed Kikwebe Securing a land title is part of the solution. Water is also a major Kibondo District, Tanzania exploitation as well as the number of ongoing disputes. issue for the farmers of Iringa. With rainfall patterns becoming increasingly unpredictable, reliance on rainfed agriculture is becoming too risky. Less than 40 percent of the district has irrigation, and many farmers are unable to cultivate their land. For this reason, irrigation is a key component of Concern’s Integrated Livelihood Programme, which works with the District Ministry of Agriculture to improve irrigation infrastructure by supporting improvement of canals “I feel even if I die, I know the land is safe as I have written the names of four of my children on the certificate, two girls and two boys. (Four was the maximum number I could include.) I have 6.23 acres of land, and I grow maize, beans, potatoes, and cassava.” and construction of water gates. The introduction of drip irrigation has also become a key strategy for Concern. In Luganga, for example, gates have been installed along the canal to help regulate the amount of water flowing to farmers. Concern has supported the strengthening and training of water user groups and their management committees—consisting of and elected by the vil- “One of my sons is married, so I farm and my son helps me. We also exchange crops, so if either of us has a problem we share the harvest (cassava or maize). I eat two meals a day, lunch and dinner, as I go to farm very early.” lagers themselves—who are responsible for monitoring water usage, collecting fees, and overseeing maintenance of the canal. This canal provides irrigation to 300 farmers, who are able to cultivate their farms, increase their food security, and improve their livelihoods. This progress is not without problems though. Loss of water through seepage along the canal has been a challenge that, if addressed, “I think the certificate is important. One advantage is that you can rent your farm out for money. I plan to do so if there is an emergency. I can rent the land out so I can still pay for the children to go to school.” could enable a second harvest, improving food security and incomes. Water loss also affects the value of the land, which decreases as production falls. Conversely, the value of land increases with access to water. At the begin- 2012 Global Hunger Index | Chapter 04 | The Centrality of Land, Water, and Energy for Smallholders 43 ning of 2012, a temporary connector was put in place to facilitate the flow tected through land title before companies enter into areas that are being of water to an additional 450 farms. Since its construction, the volume utilized already. Titles should precede determination of SAGCOT areas. available to all farms has fallen, reducing the level of production. Water-related tensions between pastoralists and farmers in the There is a need for more communication and information in relation to land titling on the part of both the community and local Village Coun- district are also becoming more common. Although pastoralists may cils too. There remains a great deal of uncertainty about the process have designated land, their land may not have a water source, leaving and who has responsibility for instigating it. Official procedures call for them at times with little choice but to encroach on farmland and accept farmers to apply to the Village Land Council and have their claim veri- that they will have to pay a fee to the relevant farmer to allow their ani- fied by the Village Land Tribunal; then a batch of applications is sent mals’ access to pasture and water. to the District Land Department. At times, though, Village Councils were waiting for the District Land Department to approach and notify them of their next visit to demarcate land. Moving Forward with Land Titling While benefits of the land titling process in Iringa are beginning to emerge, Concern’s experience with the titling process highlights the need progress rolling out the Land Acts has been extremely slow since they for strong political will, alongside complementary policies and integrated first came into force in 2001. According to the Iringa District land offi- programming initiatives, including supportive financial and extension ser- cer, land has not been given priority in national budgets, and sectors such vices and water programs. Each of these elements is as important as the as health, education, and infrastructure have been prioritized instead. other. In the absence of any one, the overall impact will be diminished while Iringa has a total district budget of TSh189 million. Of this total, TSh10 together, they can sustain and strengthen the considerable investment in million have been allocated to come from the national government. The and impact of the land-titling process in Tanzania in the years to come. District Land Office estimates that in reality, they are likely to receive just one-third of what has been allocated. Furthermore, the amount for land Conclusion administration in Iringa has been capped at TSh5.4 million (US$3,412) The examples from both Sierra Leone and Tanzania show the particular for 2012/2013. Pressure on overall budgets and limits on the budget for vulnerabilities of smallholder producers given scarcity of resources and land administration raise questions and concerns in relation to the prior- increased competition. Though national policies such as the Smallhold- ity being given to the issue of land title. More investment is required if er Commercialization Programme in Sierra Leone and the Land Acts in more communities and farmers are to get titles. Tanzania may be in place, the actual benefit to small-scale family farm- Over the past 10 years, the government has made agricultural ers appears limited. Findings suggest that such policies can reach their investment an increasing priority. With the high-level promotion of SAG- full potential and respond to the rights and needs of smallholder farmers COT, it is particularly important that similar support, both technical and only if they are accompanied by the appropriate resources and capacities financial, be given to land and the land-titling process. People must be pro- and recognized as part of a wider vision of “agricultural modernization” that is explicitly and implicitly supportive of smallholder farmers. Chapter 5 puts forward recommendations detailing the requisite policies and frameworks for responsible governance of natural resources. It presents technical advances and approaches that have successfully managed to address the interconnectedness of land, water, and energy policies, as well as the measures that should be taken to address the drivers of the rush for resources. Kaleta Sharaba Kabika Kibondo District, Tanzania “We own the land, cultivate it, and get food for our children. I would feel bad if my name was not on the certificate. If my husband died this would be a risk to me and my children. Another risk is that my husband could sell the land or rent it without my knowledge. Now because the certificate is in both our names, it has to be a joint decision if we wish to sell or rent it.” 44 The program has a planned budget of US$403 million. However, as of July 2012 the SCP had been accorded US$50 million from the multi-donor Global Agriculture and Food Security Program (GAFSP), administered by the World Bank. Furthermore, the Islamic Development Bank had announced a contribution of US$20 million. A number of other programs, with a joint volume of US$83 million, are understood as forming part of the SCP because they support some of the program’s components (the World Bank’s Rural Private Sector Program, the African Development Bank’s Agricultural Rehabilitation Program, and the Rural Finance and Community Improvement Program and Community-Based Poverty Reduction Project of the International Fund for Agricultural Development). 17 These monitoring data are from the Sierra Leonean nongovernmental organization Green Scenery (www.greenscenery.org). 18 In August 2011 Welthungerhilfe commissioned an independent case study to get a better insight into the perspectives of local farmers on the deal and to understand the early impacts of the land acquisition. The full study can be accessed through Welthungerhilfe’s webpage (Melbach 2012). 16 The Centrality of Land, Water, and Energy for Smallholders | Chapter 04 | 2012 Global Hunger Index BOX 4.2 A CASE STUDY OF LAND TITLING IN IRINGA DISTRICT, TANZANIA Although Anna has had her title for four years, she has not used it to obtain credit. But she knows exactly what she would do with a loan: “I would like to borrow TSh500,000 to buy pigs and grow more crops. I would like to diversify the crops that I grow and earn more money, but I am not sure how to go about getting a loan.” Uncertainty about using the titles to obtain credit is a common challenge in Iringa. So far only 21 of the more than 8,000 people with titles have been able to use their land titles as collateral. Furthermore, these farms were generally well developed, grew cash crops, and were more mechanized. Financial institutions look for these characteristics and thereby limit opportunities for smallholder producers. In addition, the titles are not yet fully recognized as instruments of mortgage, and as a result financial institutions are reluctant or unwilling to accept them. While the Ministry of Land is currently working on getting titles included in the Land Registration Act, this will take time. In the meantime the benefit of the asset is being limited, given the lack of additional relevant information and complementary supportive policies. Water is an additional challenge for Anna. “If I don’t get enough water from the Anna Mdeka proudly holds up her certificate of customary right of occupancy (CCRO). canal, weeds sprout on my land. The canal is not in good shape. If Concern had not Anna Mdeka proudly holds up her CCRO. came home he encouraged me to apply. He been rehabilitating it over the last three For her, this title represents important explained that the CCRO could be used to years, we would not be able to farm in this security and independence. Some years apply for credit, and I liked the thought of village.” Anna’s plot is on the canal, and ago, Anna lost one of her legs, and her life avoiding being harassed about my farm. As she can grow rice, harvesting between 26 changed in a number of ways. Whereas she I am married, I had to approach my hus- and 30 bags of rice a season. Once the used to engage in trade, she now relies sole- band about the application. He has two main harvest is over and the land becomes ly on her farm for her livelihood. Concern other wives but agreed to give me two acres drier, she grows maize. On average she Worldwide first started supporting the CCRO of land, and I applied for the CCRO in my earns TSh600,000 (US$380) a season. process in Luganga village, Pawaga Divi- name only.” She also trades some of her rice for maize sion, in 2006, working with the Village Concern supported Anna through the process, and meat. Council to raise awareness about the pro- covering the fee of TSh50,000 (US$31.60) Before leaving, Anna explains that her cess and to survey and demarcate land. estimated by the Iringa District Land Office CCRO inspired her husband to look into the Anna’s was among the first farms to be sur- for demarcation and preparation of the title. process, and he has since secured his own. veyed in 2008, and a year later, she was For Anna, the main benefit of having a title Concern’s support of the titling process is one of the first five people to receive an offi- is a feeling of security, as she knows those expanding, empowering many within the cial CCRO. two acres belong to her and cannot be taken community to secure control over the land “It was my son who first told me about the away. As one of three wives, Anna also now they have farmed for years. In 2011, a fur- CCROs. He had been at a meeting where has more independence and protection over ther 119 parcels of land were surveyed and they were talking about it, and when he her own livelihood. demarcated in Anna’s village. 2012 Global Hunger Index | Chapter 04 | The Centrality of Land, Water, and Energy for Smallholders 45 05 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – “States can and must achieve a reorientation of their agricultural systems towards modes of production that contribute to the progressive realization of the human right to adequate food.” – – – – – – –46 Olivier De Schutter, United Nations Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food Name des Teilbereich | Chapter 1 | 2012 Global Hunger Index POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS In the coming decades food security will be increasingly challenged by Against this backdrop, there are three overall areas in which action water, land, and energy scarcity. If progress and improvements to the is needed: well-being and nutritional status of the poor are to be realized, we will need to make a diverse range of foods more available and accessible, 1. Responsible governance of natural resources: getting the policy identify and address wasteful practices and policies, and assure local frameworks right communities of greater control over and access to productive resources. a. Secure land and water rights b. Phase out subsidies As a result of growing food price volatility and food price spikes, c. Create a macroeconomic enabling environment in part driven by land, water, and energy scarcity, many countries have started to rethink agriculture and food security strategies. This rethinking provides an opportunity to ensure that food security strategies are 2. Scaling up technical approaches: addressing the nexus aligned with plans in relation to land, water, and energy. More holistic a. Invest in agricultural production technologies that support strategies for dealing with land, water, energy, and food can reduce the increased land, water, and energy efficiency adverse impacts of policy incoherence across these areas and promote b. Foster approaches resulting in more efficient land, water, and the sharing of successful innovation. energy use along the value chain Greater collaboration is needed among government ministries c. Prevent resource depletion by monitoring and evaluating strategies in water, land, energy, and agricultural systems as well as with communities, civil society, and the private sector in policy design, implementation, and monitoring. It is crucial to monitor both the human and the environmental outcomes of developments in the 3. Addressing the drivers of natural resource scarcity: managing the risks land, water, and energy sectors and of alternative agricultural and food a. Address demographic change, women’s access to education, and and nutrition strategies. reproductive health b. Raise incomes, lower inequality, and promote sustainable lifestyles c. Mitigate and adapt to climate change through agriculture FIGURE 5.1 USING LAND, WATER, AND ENERGY SYNERGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE FOOD SECURITY Water Local, national, international policies coordinated Land > Secure land rights > Transparent foreign direct investments > > Efficient use of water > Secure water rights > Integrated watershed and pasture management Sustainable food security Preservation of biodiversity > Soil conservation Energy > Rigorous assessment of renewable energy > Planning at the landscape level > Focus on sustainable, long-term gains Land use changes reflect priority for food security > Scaling-up energy efficient approaches and technologies Synergies are fully utilized > Agroforestry Source: Authors. 2012 Global Hunger Index | Chapter 05 | Policy Recommendations 47 Responsible Governance of Natural Resources: Getting the Policy Frameworks Right Akello Grace Acyanga Lira, Uganda Secure Land and Water Rights As natural resources become scarcer, how land and water rights are allocated will have increasing implications for the social and economic devel- “Land is the only wealth people are left with in the village, and people think if they sell it, they have sold everything they have.” opment of states and their citizens, and particular impacts on the livelihoods of the poor. Though most regions of the world have some form of rights system, many are underdeveloped and underfinanced and neither grounded “I think my children will not have sufficient fuelwood for cooking and heating in the future because the current generations are cutting down trees for fuelwood and they are not replacing them.” in statutory law nor respectful of customary arrangements. In these contexts, rights holders are vulnerable to expropriation. The recent increase in the number of land deals within and between countries has amplified these challenges and raised important questions about how rights to local resources should be handled in such cases. In May 2012 the Committee on World Food Security adopted Voluntary Guidelines on the Responsible Governance of Tenure of Land, Fisheries, and Forests in the Context of National Food Security (see Box 5.1). These guidelines allow government authorities, the private sector, civil society, and citizens to judge whether their proposed actions and the actions of others constitute acceptable practices and are geared toward protecting smallholder land and water rights. Moreover, the Committee on World Food Security is currently debating principles for responsible agricultural investment that will become available in 2013. Preliminary studies on cases of land acquisition have shown that the rights of small Immaculate Nakee farmers and marginalized groups have so far not sufficiently been taken Nakapiripirit District, Uganda stakeholders to stop large-scale land acquisitions need to be examined into account. Therefore, requests by farmers’ organizations and other in the light of these guidelines and principles. “To increase water and energy supplies and access to land, the communities should be sensitized, elderly people should launch a campaign to educate the actors to stop excessive cutting of big trees, more boreholes should be drilled where there are new settlements, and rainwater ponds should be constructed for animals and domestic use.” Phase Out Subsidies To ensure more sustainable and efficient use of water, land, and energy resources, direct subsidies for fuels and fertilizer should be phased out. Instead, countries should provide limited, carefully targeted direct payments to support poor farmers and consumers. Subsidies on water and energy lead to the overuse of these scarce resources, put pressure on tight government budgets, and often fail to reach the poorest producers and consumers. Nonetheless, many countries subsidize water and energy, both directly (through fuel or electricity subsidies and free delivery of irrigation water) and indirectly (by subsidizing fertilizers) in order to provide income support for farmers and boost production. The International Energy Agency suggests that global fossil fuel subsidies may rise to US$660 billion in 2020 from US$409 billion in 2010. In contrast, renewable energy subsidies totaled US$66 billion in 2010. These fossil fuel 48 Policy Recommendations | Chapter 05 | 2012 Global Hunger Index subsidies do not necessarily help the poorest people. In 2010 the poorest cipitation, climate change is projected to reduce crop productivity in devel- 20 percent of the population received approximately 8 percent of the oping countries and thus to substantially increase their imports of major US$409 billion (IEA 2011), and the more than 1 billion people without grains. Trade can partially compensate for the projected loss of produc- access to modern forms of energy were fully excluded from this support. tivity and thus help spread the risks associated with climate change, In South Asia, increased national spending on energy subsidies is raising pressure on groundwater resources (because energy is used to increasing the resilience of individual countries that might be hard hit by climatic events in particular seasons or years. pump water for irrigation) and energy supplies. For example, partly as a Farmers should be encouraged to move up the value chain by result of energy subsidies, up to 60 percent of India’s food production assuming increased roles in processing, packaging, and marketing now stems from groundwater resources, which are often exploited at their products. By promoting economies of scale, cooperatives can unsustainable levels. make it easier for farmers to add value (see case study on Sierra To reduce dependence on fossil fuels, some countries increasingly focus on sources of renewable energy. So far, however, these renewable Leone in Chapter 4), help them gain a stronger market position, and open avenues for trade. energy strategies continue to depend heavily on first-generation biofuels. Although biofuel development can be beneficial to the economies of some countries, such as Brazil, the biofuel mandates instituted by the United Scaling Up Technical Approaches States, the European Union, and a handful of other countries have contributed to reducing both the quantity and quality of water and land avail- Invest in Agricultural Production Technologies That Support able for growing food, hence contributing to higher food prices and to Increased Land, Water, and Energy Efficiency increased competition for land. This competition has major risks for small- Although private investment is rising, few developing-country governments holder farmers in countries were land is being leased (see Chapter 4). have increased their investments in agricultural research, development, or extension, which have benefits for poor people’s food security and Create a Macroeconomic Enabling Framework income. In the 2003 Maputo Declaration on Agriculture and Food Secu- Market solutions, which encourage behavior through market signals rath- rity, African governments committed themselves to allocate at least 10 er than through explicit directives, can provide payments to farmers who percent of national budgetary resources to agriculture and rural develop- conserve water, land, and associated ecosystem services (Stavins 2005). ment policy within five years. As of 2008, only eight countries had met For example, the formal and informal water markets that have developed this goal. Nine countries reported rates between 5 and 10 percent, and in water-scarce, agriculture-dependent countries have been shown to sig- 28 others reported rates of less than 5 percent (Omilola et al. 2010). nificantly increase the efficiency of water and energy use (Easter, Rose- However, not only the quantity, but also the quality of investment grant, and Dinar 1998). Payments for ecosystem services, for example, must adjust to maximize water, land, and energy security for better food from downstream reservoirs to upstream farmers and foresters who reduce and nutrition outcomes. Most past efforts have focused on improving erosion in watersheds is another way to promote efficient use of resourc- seeds and ensuring that farmers are provided with a set of inputs that can es and avoid the negative impacts of poor resource use, but this approach increase yields. This approach replicates an industrial process, in which depends on identifying downstream entities that can and want to pay for external inputs serve to produce outputs in a linear model of production. these services. Instead, smart, site-specific agroecological approaches that increase pro- Enhanced regional and international trade can help make produc- duction, conserve natural resources, and are tailored to specific human tion more efficient and ensure that agricultural products are produced in and environmental conditions should be favored. Such approaches include those countries where inputs are most abundant or cheaply available. To integrated soil fertility management, alternate wetting and drying of rice ensure that trade generates full and equitable benefits, continued devel- land and direct seeding of rice, on-time water delivery and microirriga- opment of domestic and regional institutions and pro-poor policies to man- tion, and increased fertilizer use efficiency. age globalization is important. In particular, there is a need for reform of For example, integrated soil fertility management involves apply- fiscal and financial policies and institutions; property and contract laws ing both organic and inorganic fertilizers to the soil while also practicing that foster modern commerce; flexible and efficient markets for products, reduced tillage and increasing the reuse of crop residues—practices that labor, and capital; and development of technology and human capital. help protect the soil and add nutrients. Many studies in Sub-Saharan Afri- Enhanced trade of agricultural commodities is also relevant to ca have shown that integrated soil fertility management increases the soil help offset the negative effects of climate change on agricultural produc- moisture content, improves energy efficiency, and raises farmers’ crop tivity (Nelson et al. 2009b). Through its effects on temperature and pre- yields. It also increases soil organic carbon, which is particularly crucial 2012 Global Hunger Index | Chapter 05 | Policy Recommendations 49 in this region (see, for example, Bryan et al. 2011; Bationo et al. 2007; BOX 5.1 NEW GUIDELINES ON GOVERNING LAND, Marenya et al. 2012). Alternate wetting and drying of rice fields, direct FISHERIES, AND FORESTS seeding of rice, and dryland rice cultivation are all technologies that can, under appropriate conditions, reduce water use, energy use, and green- New Guidelines on Governing Land, Fisheries, and Forests house gas emissions while maintaining or increasing crop yields. Several In May 2012 the United Nations Committee on World Food of these technologies are now being adopted for their labor-saving rather Security adopted a set of voluntary guidelines to help countries than their natural resource–conserving properties. For example, direct establish laws and policies to better govern land, fishery, and seeding of rice, which helps conserve labor (Pandey and Velasco 2005), forest tenure rights, with the ultimate aim of supporting food has been adopted on almost half of all rice area in Vietnam (Farooq et al. security and sustainable development. Over the course of almost 2011). There are, however, no general solutions. The best approach for three years, 96 national governments, civil society organiza- each set of conditions must be determined on a case by case basis. tions, private sector entities, international organizations, and academics participated in developing the guidelines. Foster Approaches That Lead to More Efficient Land, Water, Though the guidelines have been discussed predominantly in and Energy Use along the Value Chain connection with large-scale land acquisitions (“land grabbing”), To ensure that food and nutrition objectives for poor, food-insecure com- they actually address a wide range of issues including: munities and households can be met, it is important to go beyond agri- > > > recognition and protection of legitimate tenure rights, also cultural production to assess the implications of water, land, and energy under informal systems policies along the entire value chain. Water and energy efficiency should best practices for registering and transferring tenure rights be increased in the processing and retail sectors as well; and transporta- (including making tenure administrative systems accessible tion, transaction, and trade costs of the final product should be factored and affordable) into land intensification plans as well as new land development. management of expropriations and restitution of land to Some recent studies suggest there is significant potential for people who were forcibly evicted in the past reducing postharvest losses along the value chain from the farm to the approaches to ensuring that investment in agricultural lands consumer in both the developing and developed world (see, for exam- occurs responsibly and transparently, including consider- ple, Gustavsson, Cederberg, and Sonesson 2011). If postharvest loss- ation of investment models that do not result in the large- es of agricultural commodities in developing countries account for scale transfer of tenure rights 10–40 percent of total production, depending on the commodity, and > mechanisms for resolving disputes over tenure rights if a significant share of these losses could be reduced, pressure on > good practices and policies for land consolidation and redis- energy, water, and land resources could be considerably lowered. > tributive reforms, where required > Other studies, however, have found that developing-country transparent and participatory implementation of regulated postharvest losses might be much lower (see, for example, Greeley spatial planning 1982; Reardon, Chen, and Minten, forthcoming), and the economics of loss recovery has yet to be established (see, for example, Rosegrant, The adoption of the voluntary guidelines is only a first step. The Tokgoz, and Bhandary 2012). To better understand the potential bene- FAO, with partners, is now developing a series of technical hand- fits of reducing postharvest losses and food waste, researchers must books designed to help countries adapt the guidelines to their better assess the recoverable losses along the value chain for key com- local context and put them into play. To the same end, the FAO modities and analyze the cost of reducing those losses through specific will also provide targeted technical assistance to governments. interventions in developing and developed countries. Equally if not more important will be support to civil society. Funds and training should be made available to allow civil soci- Prevent Resource Depletion by Monitoring and Evaluating Strategies ety to use the voluntary guidelines as a tool to monitor govern- in Water, Land, Energy, and Agricultural Systems ment policies and to increase government accountability— The long-term availability of natural resources is crucial for food security. especially in those countries where the secure use of and The increasing demand for agricultural products needs to be addressed access to natural resources provides for the livelihood of large in a sustainable way to prevent resource depletion. To fully reflect the parts of the population. value of natural resources and set appropriate incentives to help manage them sustainably, decisionmakers should take into account the full cost 50 Policy Recommendations | Chapter 05 | 2012 Global Hunger Index of environmental degradation as well as the full range of benefits and services that ecosystems provide. To do so, however, they need information on which technologies and development pathways can optimally promote food security, poverty alleviation, and environmental sustainability. The links between water, land, energy, and food mean that we need better ways to track, monitor, and evaluate the impacts of poli- Jean Véa Dieudonné cies supporting the sustainable use of natural resources. In the case Jacmel, Haiti of food, agriculture, and bioenergy, new metrics are necessary to assess, for example, the nutrition and health implications of natural resource strategies as well as the effects on food security strategies. “In 10 years the prices for land have tripled, and a tendency has developed to pay in US dollars.” Once established, the best approaches can be developed into monitoring systems to generate evidence for sound policies. In recent years, several initiatives have started to monitor the socioeconomic and environmental impacts of agricultural systems. It is important that these initiatives develop a wide range of indicators “We must rather say that things have changed but not in the right direction. The water does not suffice for the population; neither does the electricity. All the land on the outskirts of the city has become slums.” encompassing water, energy, land use, food, nutrition, and health outcomes. Moreover, indicators need to be simple and affordable to collect, including by developing-country government agencies and farmers themselves. Most important, such monitoring systems must be transparent, and data must be provided in a timely manner, allowing “What should be done to improve the situation is better management of the natural resources we have and better control of the distribution of these resources.” governments, the private sector, and civil society to make appropriate adjustments in response to indicator values. To integrate modern science with local knowledge, monitoring and research should be conducted with local farmers, particularly small-scale producers. Their participation will ensure that solutions are not one-size-fits-all, but fitted to the specific circumstances and responsive to actual needs. Addressing the Drivers of Natural Resource Scarcity Address Demographic Change, Women’s Access to Education, and Reproductive Health Economists, demographers, and policymakers have long debated the relationships between reproductive health, population change, and economic well-being. In recent years, however, a growing number of studies across U Khwin Thein Pauk Township, Myanmar “I know that the forest around our village was badly denuded. When I was young, perhaps 20 years of age, the forest between Pauk and our village was very dense. Nobody could dare to pass through it even during daytime.” disciplines have shown that declines in fertility affect the structure of a country’s population (see, for example, World Bank 2007; Joshi 2012). The emerging age structure has a lower dependency ratio (fewer young and older people per working-age adult), which creates a window of opportunity for economic development. Studies have also shown that access to family-planning services contributes to a reduction in fertility, which frees up household resources and allows women to make more investments in education. Better access to education, particular- “In fact, perhaps the situation could be improved with the introduction of alternative fuel sources other than wood and perhaps by using fuel-efficient stoves. I had once such a stove made out of clay. I kept it for a long time to show it to others and encourage them to use it. But myself, I could never use it because I did not manage to persuade my wife….” ly by women, will in turn lead to positive food and nutrition security outcomes: the 2009 Global Hunger Index report suggests that there is 2012 Global Hunger Index | Chapter 05 | Policy Recommendations 51 a particularly strong relationship between education and hunger. Educated women have better nutritional status themselves, are better cared for, and provide higher-quality care for their children. To help address the challenge of providing adequate family-planning services, a recent U Ye Myint Pauk Township, Myanmar “As my village is located in the lowlands near the Yaw River, it is easy to drill wells and find water. We suffer from too much instead of too little water, especially in the latter part of the rainy season. Water is pouring on the village from uphill and endangering houses. Therefore we want to reforest these 5 acres on top of the hill in order to reduce the water flow.” summit on family planning led to pledges toward halving the number of women in developing countries who want, but lack access to, modern contraception (DFID 2012). Raise Incomes, Lower Inequality, and Promote Sustainable Lifestyles Rising income levels, with corresponding changes in lifestyle and consumption patterns, are likely to increase demand for a wide range of goods and services. Developing countries will have valuable opportunities to realize the wealth-creating potential of water, energy, and land resources, but they also face the risk of using these resources in ways that exacerbate economic inequality and environmental degradation. Natural resources are often the principal source of income for the world’s poorest people. In countries with weak governance of natural resources, civil society and the international community need to help strengthen governance systems by monitoring the natural resource base and ensuring that it is not expropriated at the expense of marginalized parts of society. Programs and initiatives such as those described in Chapter 4 can help strengthen the capacity of civil society groups to support poor and marginalized people in securing their rights and sustaining their livelihoods. At the same time, economic growth in many developing countries is associated with more resource-intensive lifestyles that have Lespérence Fedner proven to be unsustainable. Rising incomes should therefore be used Technical Coordinator, Welthungerhilfe, demonstrate the potential of lifestyles that are consistent with sustain- Jean Rabel, Haiti able global development. Such lifestyles must not only be environmen- as an opportunity to leapfrog unsustainable natural resource use and tally sustainable, but also allow poorer countries to catch up with the “During recent years, land prices have increased dramatically.... The pressure on land leads to the urbanization of areas which are actually reserved for agriculture.” industrial countries in terms of human well-being. The largest onus of adjusting resource-intensive lifestyles, however, will remain with the industrial countries, in the interest of both sustainability and equality. Moreover, broader action is needed to address the growing gap between the rich and the poor. While the exact dimensions of inequali- “The population must be conscious, motivated, and aware of the problem of availability of resources for the future needs of our children.” ty vary from country to country, depending on the ethnic, regional, and religious situation, a systematic picture of inequality between rural and urban populations, between social or ethnic groups, and between the poorest and the rich is evident for almost all regions of the globe. In view of the growing inequities outlined in the Conventional World scenario in Chapter 3, increased investments in agriculture, rural infrastructure, health, education, and social protection19 are urgently needed in lowincome developing countries to close the gaps between the rich and the poor and promote a model of development that is both socially and environmentally more sustainable. The industrial countries need to recon- 52 Policy Recommendations | Chapter 05 | 2012 Global Hunger Index sider their lifestyles and consumption patterns and demonstrate that responsible use of natural resources benefits everyone in society. Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change through Agriculture Sustainable practices are critical for helping agriculture adapt to climate change. At the same time, agriculture has been shown to significantly Ebwongu Edison contribute to climate change, primarily by producing and releasing green- Kaberamaido district, Uganda house gases and altering land cover and land use. Consequently, it will be necessary not only to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture and the rural poor but also to minimize agriculture’s impact on the climate. Developing countries will require funding for both agricultural adaptation and mitigation, and this financial and technical assistance should be additional to other aid commitments. It should also be targeted to those countries and regions most vulnerable to climate change, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Critical adaptation measures include targeted investments in agri- “I foresee my children not having sufficient water in the future. This is because currently we are already facing a safe water shortage (something that never used to happen in our village). Additionally, with the rapidly increasing population, there will be continuously growing contamination of the underground water wells due to human activities. This will render most of the water sources unfit for human consumption.” cultural research and extension, rural infrastructure, and strengthened social protection programs. The goal should be to develop crops and livestock that are resilient in a range of production environments. Within countries, extension programs can help farmers adapt through new tech- “To counteract the scarcity of land, there is a need to sensitize the community to practice family planning to check the rapidly growing population.” nologies, build farmers’ knowledge and skills, and encourage them to form networks for sharing information and developing community-based adaptation options, such as farmer-managed irrigation systems and tree nurseries. Understanding the interactions between agriculture and climate well enough to support adaptation and mitigation activities requires major improvements in data collection, dissemination, and analysis. In addition, greenhouse gas mitigation in the agricultural sector should be addressed through policy reforms. To date, agriculture has played a relatively minor role in greenhouse gas mitigation. Because of Daw Thaung Kyi the large number of smallholder farmers that need to participate in miti- Pauk Township, Myanmar gation projects to achieve significant savings in greenhouse gases, the administrative cost of agricultural mitigation is higher than in other sectors. In addition, more research is needed to establish the greenhouse gas savings from a number of specific agricultural practices. Carbon market schemes for agriculture could help reduce carbon emissions, although so far they have proven effective only for large-scale farmers. If the transaction costs for small-scale projects can be reduced, they might be an important source of income for small-scale farmers in the future. Most, “When I was young my parents’ main earnings were from charcoal burning. I became to know that is a main cause for the lack of forest nowadays. And if there are no trees, rain may be lacking. I would like to plant some trees to get good timber in order to construct a house. And I also have great interest in installing a solar plate in order to get electric light.” if not all, agricultural practices that have been shown to reduce emissions also increase productivity and reduce other environmental impacts. Examples are agroecological approaches, such as integrated soil fertility management, which can be adapted to specific conditions. Social protection includes benefits provided by governments to individuals or households to reduce hunger, poverty, and other forms of deprivation. These benefits include safety nets, such as public works schemes or cash welfare payments; drought, illness, and unemployment insurance; and other social sector policies including direct nutrition interventions and free primary education. 19 2012 Global Hunger Index | Chapter 05 | Policy Recommendations 53 A APPENDIX Data Sources and Calculation of the 1990, 1996, 2001, and 2012 THE GLOBAL HUNGER INDEX IS CALCULATED AS FOLLOWS: Global Hunger Index Scores All three index components are expressed in percentages and weighted equally. Higher GHI values indicate more hunger. The index varies between GHI = (PUN + CUW + CM)/3 a minimum of 0 and a maximum of 100, but these extremes do not occur with GHI: Global Hunger Index PUN: proportion of the population that is in practice. The maximum value of 100 would be reached only if all chil- undernourished (in %) dren died before their fifth birthday, the whole population was undernour- CUW: prevalence of underweight in children ished, and all children under five were underweight. The minimum value younger than five (in %) of zero would mean that a country had no undernourished people in the population, no children under five who were underweight, and no children CM: proportion of children dying before the age of five (in %) who died before their fifth birthday. The table below provides an overview of the data sources for the Global Hunger Index. GLOBAL HUNGER INDEX COMPONENTS, 1990 GHI, 1996 GHI, 2001 GHI, AND 2012 GHI GHI Number of Indicators Reference years Data sources 1990–92 b FAO 2011a and authors’ estimates 1988–92 c WHO 2012 and authors’ estimates Under-five mortality 1990 UNICEF 2012b Percentage of undernourished in 1995–97 countries with GHI 1990 97 Percentage of undernourished in the population a Percentage of underweight in children under five 1996 117 b FAO 2011a and authors’ estimates the population a Percentage of underweight in 1994–98 d 2001 118 WHO 2012; UNICEF 2012a; and authors’ estimates children under five Under-five mortality 1996 Percentage of undernourished in 2000–02 IGME 2011 b FAO 2011a and authors’ estimates 1999–03 e WHO 2012 and authors’ estimates Under-five mortality 2001 IGME 2011 Percentage of undernourished in 2006–08 the population a Percentage of underweight in children under five 2012 120 b FAO 2011a and authors’ estimates the population a Percentage of underweight in 2005–10 f Under-five mortality WHO 2012; UNICEF 2012a, c; MEASURE DHS 2012;g and authors’ estimates children under five 2010 UNICEF 2012b Proportion of the population with calorie deficiency. Average over a three-year period. c Data collected from the year closest to 1990; where data for 1988 and 1992, or 1989 and 1991, were available, an average was used. The authors’ estimates are for 1990. d Data collected from the year closest to 1996; where data for 1994 and 1998, or 1995 and 1997, were available, an average was used. The authors’ estimates are for 1996. e Data collected from the year closest to 2001; where data for 1999 and 2003, or 2000 and 2002, were available, an average was used. The authors’ estimates are for 2001. f The latest data gathered in this period. g WHO (2012) data are the primary data source, and UNICEF (2012a, c) and MEASURE DHS (2012) are secondary data sources. a b 54 Data Sources and Calculation of the 1990, 1996, 2001, and 2012 GHI Scores | Appendix A | 2012 Global Hunger Index B DATA UNDERLYING THE CALCULATION OF THE 1990, 1996, 2001, AND 2012 GLOBAL HUNGER INDEX SCORES Country Proportion of undernourished in the Prevalence of underweight in Under-five mortality population (%) children under five years (%) rate (%) 90–92 Afghanistan Albania Algeria Angola 95–97 00–02 06–08 - - - - 11 * 5* 5* 5* 4* 67 5 5 61 52 4* 41 1* Armenia - 36 28 Azerbaijan - 27 11 2* Bahrain - - - - 38 41 30 Belarus Benin - 1* 20 18 1* 44.9 Argentina Bangladesh 1* 2* 15 88–92 94–98 99–03 05–10 2* 21 26 1* 12 10.4 * 11 10 4* 9* Burkina Faso 14 Burundi 44 Cambodia 38 Cameroon 33 34 Central African Rep. 44 47 53 43 Chad 60 Chile 7 China 18 12 9 9* 6 10 * 8.2 <5 5.6 4.7 3.6 6.7 7.3 6.0 <5 19.5 16.1 41.9 39.9 33.0 24.1 3.4 * 4.7 2.4 * 2.3 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.4 <5 <5 <5 <5 5.4 * 2.7 2.6 4.7 5.5 4.1 3.2 2.0 - 14.3 11.3 9.2 11.8 * 8.8 5.9 8.4 9.3 7.9 6.5 4.6 - 14.6 7.8 5.0 6.3 7.6 6.7 * 5.8 * 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 - - - - 61.5 56.7 14.3 10.7 8.1 4.8 37.9 36.1 27.8 24.0 2.3 * 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.3 0.6 - <5 <5 <5 21.5 20.2 17.8 15.6 14.0 11.5 21.3 20.1 16.8 14.6 24.8 * 14.1 12.7 13.9 10.7 8.5 5.6 - - - - 4.5 12.1 9.7 7.9 5.4 16.9 14.3 12.3 12.3 4.7 * 9.3 4.3 * 15.1 1.2 * 41.3 26.8 15.2 * 1.7 * 45.4 26.0 * 9.7 Bulgaria 5.2 21.7 34.0 Brazil - 8.5 6.8 2* - 1.8 24.3 27 25 - 2.7 3.0 4* - 3.4 15.1 22 27 14.9 4.1 8.3 4* 2010 15.0 27.5 24 23 2001 15.3 37.0 - 1996 20.9 11.3 29 19 6.3 1990 9.2 Bhutan Bosnia & Herzegovina 17.0 28.4 * 34.4 * Bolivia Botswana 7.1 33.6 * GHI 1990 1996 2001 2012 (with data (with data (with data (with data from 88–92) from 94–98) from 99–03) from 05–10) 7.0 * 4.2 1.6 1.9 1.2 0.9 0.8 - <5 <5 <5 10.7 11.2 5.9 8.2 9.5 4.8 13.4 15.4 15.7 13.7 <5 5.3 4.5 3.7 2.2 5.9 4.6 3.4 1.9 7.4 6.4 5.4 2.6 * 2.8 * 2.4 * 2.1 * 2.2 2.3 2.0 1.3 <5 <5 <5 <5 26.0 20.5 19.7 18.9 17.6 23.5 22.4 21.8 17.2 12 8 56 59 62 32.6 * 34.4 * 38.9 35.2 18.3 17.3 16.2 14.2 31.6 35.9 38.0 37.1 40 29 25 45.4 * 28.8 12.1 12.0 9.6 5.1 31.8 31.5 26.0 19.6 26 22 43 40 39 4* 12 3* 10 2* 10 35.9 * 35.4 * 34.5 42.6 39.5 18.0 17.8 16.3 * 16.6 13.7 14.8 14.7 13.6 21.6 22.2 19.0 17.4 21.6 * 20.4 21.8 26.1 16.5 17.7 17.5 15.9 27.4 28.4 27.4 27.3 37.3 * 34.3 29.4 28.7 * 28.3 1.0 * 12.6 20.7 19.6 18.8 17.3 39.3 35.6 30.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 1.9 1.3 1.0 0.9 <5 <5 <5 <5 10.7 7.1 3.4 4.8 4.1 3.1 1.8 11.8 8.9 6.7 5.1 Colombia 15 11 10 9 8.8 6.3 4.9 3.7 3.1 2.6 1.9 9.2 6.8 5.8 <5 Comoros 38 47 54 47 16.2 22.3 25.0 21.8 * 12.5 11.3 10.2 8.6 22.2 26.9 29.7 25.8 33.6 24.2 18.1 18.1 18.1 17.0 - - - - 11.8 11.6 10.9 10.3 9.3 23.6 24.1 15.7 11.4 Congo. Dem. Rep. Congo. Rep. - - - - 23.6 * 30.7 42 41 20 13 17.3 * 20.5 * 16.7 * 3.4 Costa Rica 3* 4* 4* 4* 2.5 1.9 1.5 * 1.1 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 Croatia - 13 * 9* 3* 0.6 * 0.5 0.4 * 0.4 * 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.6 - <5 <5 <5 Cuba 6 14 2* 1* 3.6 * 4.6 * 3.4 3.5 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.6 <5 6.5 <5 <5 Côte d'Ivoire 15 17 17 14 19.5 * 20.9 18.2 28.2 15.1 15.4 14.5 12.3 16.5 17.8 16.6 18.2 Djibouti 60 50 40 26 20.2 16.0 25.4 30.1 12.3 11.2 10.4 9.1 30.8 25.7 25.3 21.7 Dominican Republic 28 26 25 24 8.4 4.7 3.9 3.4 6.2 4.8 3.9 2.7 14.2 11.8 10.9 10.0 Ecuador 23 16 17 15 7.5 Egypt. Arab Rep. El Salvador 4* 3* 12.2 * 12.5 6.6 * 5.5 * 5.2 3.9 3.1 2.0 13.5 10.8 8.9 3* 4* 10.5 10.8 8.7 6.8 9.4 6.3 4.3 2.2 8.0 6.7 5.3 <5 11.1 9.6 6.1 6.6 6.2 4.5 3.2 1.6 10.1 8.7 5.4 5.7 - 38.3 34.5 32.2 * 14.1 11.0 8.9 6.1 - 37.8 37.8 34.4 0.8 * 2.1 1.7 1.2 0.5 - <5 <5 <5 18.4 15.7 13.6 10.6 42.2 38.6 34.5 28.7 13 12 7 9 Eritrea - 64 70 65 Estonia - 5 5 69 62 48 Ethiopia 4* 41 2.9 * 39.2 1.1 * 1.1 * 38.1 * 42.0 34.6 Fiji 8 5 3* 3* 7.8 * 6.2 * 5.1 * 3.6 * 3.0 2.5 2.2 1.7 6.3 <5 <5 <5 Gabon 6 5* 4* 4* 10.0 * 6.7 * 8.8 4.9 * 9.3 8.9 8.7 7.4 8.4 6.9 7.2 5.4 15.6 Gambia. The 14 23 21 19 18.0 * 19 12 6 2.2 * 28 13 9 5 Guatemala 15 20 22 22 Guinea 20 19 20 16 Guinea-Bissau 22 26 25 22 19.0 * Guyana 20 11 7 8 17.2 * Haiti 63 60 53 57 23.7 24.0 Honduras 19 16 14 12 15.8 19.2 12.5 India 20 17 20 19 59.5 41.1 44.4 Indonesia 16 11 15 13 22.5 19.6 Georgia Ghana 15.4 18.1 16.5 14.1 12.4 9.8 16.2 20.1 16.3 2.7 1.1 4.7 3.9 3.2 2.2 - 8.7 6.0 <5 25.1 19.6 14.3 12.2 10.9 9.7 7.4 21.4 16.3 12.8 8.9 22.7 * 21.7 18.7 13.0 7.8 5.7 4.7 3.2 15.2 15.8 15.1 12.7 24.4 * 21.2 27.9 20.8 22.9 19.7 17.0 13.0 22.4 20.0 21.6 16.6 17.4 * 21.9 18.1 21.0 18.9 17.4 15.0 20.7 20.8 21.4 18.4 10.3 11.9 10.5 6.6 5.5 4.5 3.0 14.6 8.9 7.8 7.2 13.9 18.9 15.1 12.5 10.6 16.5 33.9 32.2 25.8 30.8 8.6 5.8 4.5 3.6 2.4 13.5 13.2 10.0 7.7 43.5 11.5 9.7 8.3 6.3 30.3 22.6 24.2 22.9 24.0 23.2 3.2 * 31.0 28.9 Iran. Islamic Rep. 3* 3* 4* 4* 16.9 * 13.8 Iraq - - - - 10.4 11 6 5 5 5.2 5.6 Jamaica Jordan 3* Kazakhstan - 8.5 6.4 5.2 3.5 18.5 15.4 14.2 12.0 3.8 * 6.5 5.0 4.1 2.6 8.8 7.3 5.1 <5 12.9 7.1 4.6 4.4 4.2 3.9 - - - - 4.1 1.9 3.8 3.3 3.0 2.4 6.7 5.0 <5 <5 <5 7.1 * 5 5 3* 4.8 3.8 3.6 1.9 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.2 <5 <5 <5 1* 8 0* 6.0 * 6.7 3.8 4.9 5.7 4.9 4.3 3.3 - <5 5.4 <5 19.3 * 18.7 17.5 16.4 9.9 11.6 10.8 8.5 20.7 20.8 20.4 19.3 Kenya 33 Kuwait 20 5 6 5 5.7 * 5.4 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 9.1 <5 <5 <5 - 13 17 11 5.3 * 8.2 4.9 * 2.7 7.2 5.9 5.0 3.8 - 9.0 9.0 5.8 29 26 22 40.3 * 35.9 31.6 Kyrgyz Republic Lao PDR Latvia Lebanon 32 31 33 33 14.5 10.8 8.4 5.4 28.6 25.2 23.6 19.7 - 3* 4* 3* 3.0 * 1.1 * 36.4 1.2 * 0.7 * 2.1 2.2 1.6 1.0 - <5 <5 <5 3* 3* 3* 3* 6.1 * 3.5 3.8 * 2.7 * 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.2 <5 <5 <5 <5 Note: * indicates IFPRI estimates. 2012 Global Hunger Index | Appendix B | Data Underlying the Calculation of the 1990, 1996, 2001, and 2012 GHI Scores 55 B DATA UNDERLYING THE CALCULATION OF THE 1990, 1996, 2001, AND 2012 GLOBAL HUNGER INDEX SCORES Country Proportion of undernourished Prevalence of underweight in Under-five mortality in the population (%) children under five years (%) rate (%) 90–92 95–97 00–02 06-08 88–92 94–98 99–03 05–10 GHI 2010 1990 1996 2001 2012 (with data (with data (with data (with data from 88–92) from 94–98) from 99–03) from 05–10) 1990 1996 2001 Lesotho 15 16 14 14 13.8 14.0 15.0 13.2 8.9 10.7 12.7 8.5 12.6 13.6 13.9 11.9 Liberia 30 32 36 32 15.3 * 23.4 * 22.8 14.4 22.7 20.2 16.1 10.3 22.7 25.2 25.0 18.9 Libya 1* 1* 1* 1* 4.8 * 4.3 4.3 * 5.6 4.5 3.3 2.6 1.7 <5 <5 <5 <5 Lithuania - 2* 1* 1* 3.2 * 1.4 * 1.0 * 0.6 * 1.7 1.5 1.1 0.7 - <5 <5 <5 1.9 2.0 Macedonia. FYR 3.9 2.2 1.5 1.2 - <5 <5 <5 Madagascar 21 26 28 25 35.5 33.0 37.0 * 36.3 * 15.9 12.3 9.7 6.2 24.1 23.8 24.9 22.5 Malawi 43 36 30 27 24.4 26.5 21.5 13.8 22.2 19.9 15.9 9.2 29.9 27.5 22.5 16.7 22.1 17.7 16.7 12.9 1.8 1.3 1.0 0.6 9.0 6.7 6.6 5.2 30.9 * 31.0 30.1 18.9 25.5 22.9 21.0 17.8 27.8 26.3 23.0 16.2 14.2 Malaysia - 3* Mali 27 9* 1* 25 6* 2* 18 3* 2* 12 2.9 * 2.9 * Mauritania 12 9 8 8 43.3 29.3 * 30.4 Mauritius 7 7 5 5 14.6 * 13.0 Mexico 5* 5* 4* 4* 13.9 Moldova - 9* 9* 6* Mongolia 28 33 27 27 4.5 * 10.8 22.6 16.7 16.6 11.1 1.5 8.0 7.4 6.0 5.4 <5 3.6 2.8 1.7 7.9 5.4 <5 5.0 * 4.1 * 3.2 3.7 3.0 2.6 1.9 - 5.7 5.2 <5 5.0 10.7 7.9 5.7 3.2 16.5 17.5 14.8 11.7 <5 11.5 * 11.6 - - 8* - - 6 6 4* 8.1 7.7 59 47 46 Namibia 11.1 1.8 4.9 - Myanmar 11.5 2.2 3.4 6 25.5 * 11.8 2.4 6.0 Montenegro 38 12.4 9.7 * 7.7 * Morocco Mozambique 11.3 * 7.3 * 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.8 - - - 5.5 * 8.6 6.6 5.3 3.6 7.6 6.8 6.2 <5 19.1 17.3 13.5 35.5 30.7 28.8 23.3 26.0 23.0 18.3 21.9 - - - - 28.8 31.9 30.1 23.0 11.2 9.6 8.5 6.6 - - - - 32 30 21 18 21.5 20.3 * 20.3 17.5 7.3 6.9 7.5 4.0 20.3 19.1 16.3 13.2 20.3 Nepal 21 20 18 17 45.5 * 42.9 43.0 38.8 14.1 10.4 8.0 5.0 26.9 24.4 23.0 Nicaragua 50 38 25 19 10.4 * 10.2 7.8 5.7 6.8 5.1 4.1 2.7 22.4 17.8 12.3 9.1 Niger 37 37 27 16 41.0 45.0 43.6 36.6 31.1 25.7 20.9 14.3 36.4 35.9 30.5 22.3 35.1 32.4 * 27.3 26.7 21.3 20.4 18.2 14.3 24.1 20.9 18.2 15.7 21.5 * 22.4 * 21.3 18.8 4.5 7.8 4.9 3.3 15.7 20.1 20.1 19.0 Nigeria 16 10 9 6 North Korea 21 30 34 35 Oman - - - - 19.2 10.0 11.3 8.6 4.7 3.0 2.0 0.9 - - - - Pakistan 25 20 24 25 39.0 34.2 31.3 25.4 * 12.4 11.1 9.9 8.7 25.5 21.8 21.7 19.7 Panama 18 20 19 15 9.0 * 6.3 5.1 7.0 - - - - 19.3 * Paraguay 16 10 10 10 Peru 27 21 18 16 8.8 5.7 5.2 Philippines 24 20 18 13 29.9 28.3 20.7 - 4.8 Papua New Guinea Qatar - - - - Romania 2* 2* 1* 0* Russian Federation Rwanda 44 Saudi Arabia Senegal 2* 22 Serbia Sierra Leone 4* 53 2* 26 3* 38 1* 26 - - - 45 39 43 1* 32 1* 19 8* 35 2.8 5.0 2.7 * 17.7 * 18.0 * 3.3 * 4.6 * 2.6 2.8 * 3.8 1.0 * 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.0 10.1 9.7 8.9 9.0 8.0 7.2 6.1 - - - - 3.4 5.0 4.1 3.4 2.5 7.9 5.8 5.4 5.3 4.3 7.8 5.5 3.8 1.9 14.5 10.7 9.0 7.4 20.7 5.9 4.6 3.9 2.9 19.9 17.6 14.2 12.2 - 2.1 1.5 1.2 0.8 - - - - 3.0 * 3.7 3.1 2.6 1.4 <5 <5 <5 <5 0.7 * 2.7 2.6 2.2 1.2 - <5 <5 <5 20.9 16.6 9.1 28.2 32.7 25.6 19.7 24.2 12.4 * 13.5 19.0 19.6 20.3 - - 1.6 2.9 1.7 1.2 0.7 - - - <5 25.1 * 24.7 21.7 27.6 26.3 22.6 17.4 32.7 30.1 30.1 24.7 <5 - 8.8 * 5.3 4.5 3.2 2.5 1.8 6.3 6.2 <5 <5 14.5 13.9 13.3 11.4 7.5 18.3 19.6 19.2 13.7 Slovak Republic - 3* 5* 4* 4.0 * 1.5 * 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.8 - <5 <5 Somalia - - - - - - 22.8 32.8 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 - - - - South Africa 4* 5* 4* 3* 8.0 10.1 8.7 6.0 6.4 8.1 5.7 6.9 6.5 7.4 5.8 10.8 * 1.3 * 18.0 16.3 24.3 25.4 22.2 3.9 18.0 0.9 * Sri Lanka 28 25 20 20 31.3 * 27.5 23.3 21.6 3.2 2.6 2.2 1.7 20.8 18.4 15.2 14.4 Sudan 39 29 28 22 34.7 * 32.8 * 38.4 32.2 12.5 11.8 11.3 10.3 28.7 24.5 25.9 21.5 Suriname 14 13 15 15 11.7 * 10.6 * 11.4 7.5 5.2 4.4 3.9 3.1 10.3 9.3 10.1 8.5 Swaziland 12 21 18 19 6.4 * 5.8 9.6 10.0 11.6 7.8 9.3 12.6 12.9 10.9 3* 3* 3* 6.8 * 9.1 Syrian Arab Republic 4* 12.3 * 11.3 10.1 3.8 2.7 2.2 1.6 6.7 5.7 5.4 <5 Tajikistan - 42 46 26 13.5 * 19.5 * 18.7 * 11.1 15.0 11.6 10.8 9.0 6.3 - 24.1 24.6 15.8 Tanzania 29 42 40 34 25.1 26.9 16.2 15.5 15.2 12.5 7.6 23.2 28.0 25.9 19.3 Thailand 26 18 18 16 16.1 * 15.4 7.0 3.2 2.0 1.7 1.3 15.1 11.8 9.2 8.1 Timor-Leste 39 32 28 31 - - 40.6 45.3 16.9 13.1 9.7 5.5 - - 26.1 27.3 Togo 43 36 36 30 21.5 16.7 21.6 * 16.6 Trinidad & Tobago 11 14 11 11 25.3 8.0 * 14.7 13.2 12.2 10.3 26.4 22.0 23.3 19.0 6.7 * 5.0 * 4.4 2.3 * 3.7 3.4 3.1 2.7 7.1 7.5 6.2 5.3 Tunisia 1* 1* 1* 1* 8.5 5.7 3.5 3.3 4.9 3.6 2.7 1.6 <5 <5 <5 <5 Turkey 1* 1* 1* 1* 8.2 * 9.0 4.5 * 1.7 8.0 5.9 3.9 1.8 5.7 5.3 <5 <5 Turkmenistan Uganda - 9 9 7 19 23 19 22 10.3 * 12.8 * 10.5 19.7 21.5 19.0 8.0 9.8 8.3 7.2 5.6 - 10.0 8.9 6.9 16.4 17.5 16.4 13.9 9.9 18.7 20.3 17.3 16.1 <5 Ukraine - 4* 2* 1* 2.2 * 2.3 * 2.5 0.8 * 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.3 - <5 <5 Uruguay 5 4* 3* 3* 6.4 * 5.1 * 5.4 4.5 * 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.1 <5 <5 <5 <5 Uzbekistan - 5 19 7.1 4.4 7.7 6.8 6.2 5.2 - 9.0 10.8 6.9 11 9.6 * 15.3 Venezuela. RB 10 14 13 7 6.7 4.4 3.9 3.7 3.3 2.8 2.4 1.8 6.7 7.1 6.4 <5 Vietnam 31 22 17 11 40.7 38.2 26.2 20.2 5.1 4.1 3.4 2.3 25.6 21.4 15.5 11.2 Yemen. Rep. 30 31 31 30 44.3 * 40.9 43.1 35.3 * 12.8 11.0 9.7 7.7 29.0 27.6 27.9 24.3 Zambia 35 38 43 44 21.2 19.6 23.3 14.9 18.3 17.4 15.3 11.1 24.8 25.0 27.2 23.3 Zimbabwe 40 44 41 30 8.0 11.7 11.5 14.0 7.8 11.1 11.3 8.0 18.6 22.3 21.3 17.3 Note: * indicates IFPRI estimates. 56 Data Underlying the Calculation of the 1990, 1996, 2001, and 2012 GHI Scores | Appendix B | 2012 Global Hunger Index C COUNTRY TRENDS FOR THE 1990, 1996, 2001, AND 2012 GLOBAL HUNGER INDEX SCORES NEAR EAST AND NORTH AFRICA 45 1990 1996 2001 2012 40 35 GHI GHI GHI GHI 30 25 20 15 10 5 Turkey Tunisia Jordan Lebanon Kuwait Saudi Arabia Libya Iran Algeria Egypt Morocco Syria Yemen 0 WEST AFRICA 45 1990 1996 2001 2012 40 35 GHI GHI GHI GHI 30 25 20 15 10 5 2012 Global Hunger Index | Appendix C | Country Trends for the 1990, 1996, 2001, and 2012 Global Hunger Index Scores Ghana Mauritania Senegal Benin The Gambia Nigeria Mali Guinea Burkina Faso Côte d'Ivoire Guinea-Bissau Liberia Togo Niger Sierra Leone 0 57 C CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AFRICA 45 1990 1996 2001 2012 40 35 GHI GHI GHI GHI 30 25 20 15 10 Gabon South Africa Swaziland Congo, Rep. Lesotho Namibia Botswana Cameroon Chad Central Afr. Rep. Angola 5 EAST AFRICA 45 1990 1996 2001 2012 40 35 GHI GHI GHI GHI 30 25 20 15 10 58 Mauritius Uganda Malawi Zimbabwe Tanzania Kenya Rwanda Sudan Djibouti Madagascar Zambia Mozambique Comoros Ethiopia Eritrea Burundi 5 Country Trends for the 1990, 1996, 2001, and 2012 Global Hunger Index Scores | Appendix C | 2012 Global Hunger Index C SOUTH AMERICA 45 1990 1996 2001 2012 40 35 GHI GHI GHI GHI 30 25 20 15 10 Chile Argentina Uruguay Brazil Venezuela Colombia Trinidad & Tobago Paraguay Guyana Peru Ecuador Suriname Bolivia 5 CENTRAL AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN 45 1990 1996 2001 2012 40 35 GHI GHI GHI GHI 30 25 20 15 10 2012 Global Hunger Index | Appendix C | Country Trends for the 1990, 1996, 2001, and 2012 Global Hunger Index Scores Cuba Costa Rica Mexico Jamaica El Salvador Panama Honduras Nicaragua Dom. Rep. Guatemala Haiti 5 59 C Bangladesh India Nepal Lao PDR Pakistan Cambodia North Korea Georgia Sri Lanka Kazakhstan Philippines Macedonia, FYR Slovak Rep. Indonesia Estonia Mongolia Latvia Bosnia & Herz. Vietnam Romania Thailand Croatia China Ukraine Lithuania Fiji GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI GHI Russian Federation Malaysia 1990 1996 2001 2012 Belarus SOUTH, EAST, AND SOUTHEAST ASIA Timor-Leste 45 40 Serbia 35 Montenegro 30 Moldova 25 Albania 20 Bulgaria 15 Azerbaijan 10 Kyrgyz Rep. 5 Uzbekistan EASTERN EUROPE AND COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES Turkmenistan 1990 1996 2001 2012 Country Trends for the 1990, 1996, 2001, and 2012 Global Hunger Index Scores | Appendix C | 2012 Global Hunger Index Armenia 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 60 Tajikistan BIBLIOGRAPHY ADB/IFPRI (Asian Development Bank/International Food Policy Re- Bhagowalia, P., D. Headey, and S. Kadiyala. 2012. Agriculture, In- search Institute). 2009. 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While the research effort is geared bal campaign – the “Freedom from Hunger Campaign”. Established to the precise objective of contributing to the reduction of hunger and under the umbrella of the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), malnutrition, the factors involved are many and wide-ranging, requir- we are now one of Germany’s largest private aid agencies. We are an ing analysis of underlying processes and extending beyond a narrowly independent organisation and firmly rooted in German society through defined food sector. The Institute’s research program reflects world- our member organisations, donors and supporters. We stand for cour- wide collaboration with governments and private and public institutions age, a passion for life and humanity as part of our mission. interested in increasing food production and improving the equity of its distribution. Research results are disseminated to policymakers, opin- What we want ion formers, administrators, policy analysts, researchers, and others We promote food security for all people, rural development and the concerned with national and international food and agricultural policy. preservation of natural resources. We believe in the power of dreams because dreams drive people forward. For this reason, we have increas- IFPRI is a member of the CGIAR Consortium. ingly been linking our partners in Germany and the project countries to a dynamic global network and are making development cooperation a reality. Our identity – who we are What we do Concern Worldwide is Ireland’s largest We help people in developing countries to provide for themselves now non-governmental organisation, dedicated and in the future. As a large German aid agency with 50 years of inter- to the reduction of suffering and working national experience, we have been chalking up success stories in Afri- towards the ultimate elimination of extreme poverty. We work in 25 of ca, Asia and Latin America. As part of our political activities, we fight the world’s poorest countries and have over 3,100 committed and tal- to change the conditions that lead to hunger and poverty. In Germany, ented staff. we mobilise people to support and help implement our vision. Our mission – what we do How we work Our mission is to help people living in extreme poverty achieve major We pursue a holistic, quality- and impact-oriented concept ranging from improvements in their lives which last and spread without ongoing sup- immediate disaster aid and reconstruction to long-term development port from Concern Worldwide. To this end, Concern Worldwide will work projects. In this context, we work with the affected people on equal with the poor themselves, and with local and international partners who terms – offering competence, reliability and transparency. We support share our vision, to create just and peaceful societies where the poor partner organisations in the project countries thereby ensuring that can exercise their fundamental rights. To achieve this mission we structures are reinforced from the bottom up and that successful proj- engage in long-term development work, respond to emergency situa- ect work can be secured for the long term. tions, and seek to address the root causes of poverty through our development education and advocacy work. Our vision – for change A world where no-one lives in poverty, fear or oppression; where all have access to a decent standard of living and the opportunities and choices essential to a long, healthy and creative life; a world where everyone is treated with dignity and respect. 2012 Global Hunger Index | Partners 67 IMPRINT Deutsche Welthungerhilfe e. V. Friedrich-Ebert-Str. 1 53173 Bonn, Germany Tel. +49 228-2288-0 Fax +49 228-2288-333 www.welthungerhilfe.de Secretary General and Chairperson: Dr. Wolfgang Jamann International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 2033 K Street, NW Washington, DC 20006-1002, USA Tel. +1 202-862-5600 Fax +1 202-467-4439 www.ifpri.org Director General: Dr. Shenggen Fan Authors: IFPRI: Klaus von Grebmer (Senior Research Fellow and Strategic Advisor), Claudia Ringler (Deputy Director, Environment and Production Technology Division), Mark W. Rosegrant (Director, Environment and Production Technology Division), Tolulope Olofinbiyi (Research Analyst), Doris Wiesmann (Independent Consultant), Heidi Fritschel (Editor), Ousmane Badiane (Director, Africa), Maximo Torero (Director, Markets, Trade, and Institutions Division), and Yisehac Yohannes (Research Analyst) Concern Worldwide: Jennifer Thompson (Advocacy Officer for Hunger) Welthungerhilfe: Constanze von Oppeln (Food Aid and Food Security Policy) Green Scenery: Joseph Rahall (Director) Ordering number: 460-9412 ISBN: 978-0-89629-942-9 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2499/9780896299429 Concern Worldwide 52-55 Lower Camden Street Dublin 2, Ireland Tel. +353 1 417 7700 Fax +353 1 475 7362 www.concern.net Chief Executive: Tom Arnold Editors: Constanze von Oppeln, Claudia Rommel, Klaus von Grebmer, Olive Towey Design, Arrangement, and Production: muehlhausmoers corporate communications gmbh, Cologne, Germany Tobias Heinrich, Pascal Schöning Printing: DFS Druck, Cologne, Germany, dfs@dfs-druck.de Picture credits: Cover photography: Imagechina/Corbis, China, Chongqing Municipality, a Chinese farmer shouldering empty buckets walks across dried-up fields to seek water during a drought in Magou village, Anwen town, Qijiang county, 2011; page 2: Brockmann/Welthungerhilfe, Kenya, Welthungerhilfe is renovating boreholes and dried-up water reservoirs in Chifri, 2011; page 6: Pilar/Welthungerhilfe, South Sudan, Nyamlel, children fetch water at a water pump with Welthungerhilfe canisters in a settlement in Nyamlel; page 10: Böthling/Welthungerhilfe, India, Purulia, Millenniumsdorf Gandhiji Songha, farmer uses the method called system of rice intensification (SRI) to intensify rice production and increase yields with less water consumption, 2008; page 22: Lohnes/Welthungerhilfe, Indonesia, Simeulue, farmer Jamil prepares his rice field with a two-wheel tractor close to the village of Leubang Hulu on the island of Simeulue, Aceh, Indonesia; the tractor was a donation from Welthungerhilfe designed to improve the livelihood and income of the farmer, 2006; page 34: Desmarowitz/Welthungerhilfe, Sierra Leone, Ngeihun, at the cocoa farmers cooperative “Millennium Cocoa Growers” in Ngeihun, Finda, wife of the cocoa farmer Tamba Kaitongay, produces palm oil, important for feeding her family and generating her own income, 2008; page 41: Jennifer Thompson/Concern, Tanzania, a completed certificate of customary right of occupancy, 2012; page 45: Jennifer Thompson/Concern, Tanzania, Iringa, Anna Mdeka holds her copy of her CCRO, Luganga Village, Pawaga Division, 2012; page 46: Creutzmann/Welthungerhilfe, Cuba, Havana, at an urban agriculture project of Welthungerhilfe in the Alamar quarter of Havana, a worker irrigates plants being cultivated in seedling trays in the greenhouse, 2006; Portraits: The potraits were taken by staff from Welthungerhilfe and Concern Worldwide. With kind support from our image partner Corbis. Disclaimer: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on the maps herein do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Welthungerhilfe, or Concern Worldwide. Scan this QR code to go to the 2012 GHI website http://www.ifpri.org/publication/ 2012-global-hunger-index FOOD RIGHT NOW is an international education campaign run by Alliance2015 and supported by the European Union. Deutsche Welthungerhilfe e. V. International Food Policy Research Institute Concern Worldwide Friedrich-Ebert-Str. 1 53173 Bonn, Germany Tel. +49 228-22 88-0 Fax +49 228-22 88-333 www.welthungerhilfe.de 2033 K Street, NW Washington, DC 20006-1002, USA Tel. +1 202-862-5600 Fax +1 202-467-4439 www.ifpri.org 52-55 Lower Camden Street Dublin 2, Ireland Tel. +353 1-417-7700 Fax +353 1-475-7362 www.concern.net