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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, 2020
Sudan is navigating a difficult political transition. In 2019, a revolutionary uprising brought on by an economic crisis and decades of authoritarian rule prompted a military coup against then President Omar al-Bashir. In a power sharing agreement sealed in August 2019, the political opposition agreed to share power with the generals who overthrew Bashir. Regime change in Sudan took place at a momentous time for the country’s neighborhood. Politics in the Horn of Africa and the Persian Gulf – long considered distinct strategic regions – have become increasingly entangled. In parallel, growing inter-state competition and a predominance of bilateralism have become defining facts of regional interactions. In the unsettled balance of power of the region, the direction of the Sudanese transition and the foreign orientation of the transitional regime have become stakes for the power plays of outside powers. Sudanese factions have sought the support of, and faced pressure from, regional states and global powers which are seeking to shape Sudan’s positions in salient issues – in negotiations over Nile waters, on the question of Arab normalization with Israel, and also in the rivalries pitting Iran, Turkey and Qatar against the so-called “Arab Troika” (the United Arab Emirates, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and Egypt). Regional intervention decisively shaped the initial direction of Sudan’s transition in 2019, when Saudi Arabia and the UAE provided critical support to the junta that overthrew Omar al-Bashir, allowing it to resist popular demands for civilian rule and accountability for the crimes of Bashir’s government. Sudan now stands firmly in the Arab Troika’s orbit. But the demands of the Arab Troika and those of the United States have caused tensions among the components of Sudan’s transitional authorities and placed obstacles on the country’s path to economic recovery. In October, President Donald Trump finally announced he will ask Congress to lift the State Sponsor of Terrorism (SST) Designation which has hampered economic normalization between Sudan and Western countries, but Sudan’s economy has now collapsed and the prospects for further political destabilization are rising.
Science For All Publications, 2023
Sudan's political crisis has been a matter of concern both domestically and internationally. With the aim of exploring potential pathways towards resolution, this article employs scenario development to present four plausible scenarios: power-sharing, militarized management, revolutionary regeneration, and international intervention. Understanding the driving factors and assumptions behind each scenario is crucial for comprehending their feasibility and implications. Through a thorough evaluation and analysis, this article aims to shed light on the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats associated with each scenario. Additionally, the potential implications for political stability, economic development, and international relations will be explored to offer a comprehensive understanding of the potential consequences of each scenario.
European Academic Research, 2020
The study examined Sudan and South Sudan relations and regional security. The study was guided by two objectives and the theory that was used is the institutional theory as propounded by Meyer John and Rowan Brian. The study adopted ex-post facto research design while data for this study was through secondary source such as textbooks, journal articles, newspapers, magazines and internet. The findings of the study showed that after the independence of South Sudan there has been relations with Sudan which has been close and these relations includes oil which has been transmitted through pipelines belonging to Sudan where it is supposed to be exported out, border demarcation which has also been contested has also made the two countries to have relations but these relations has not been harmonious all the time. The findings of the study also showed that the relations between Sudan and South Sudan which has not been harmonious has negatively impacted on regional stability which at most times manifested in armed proxies. Based on the findings of the study it was recommended among others; that the issue of border should be well addressed by the governments of Sudan and South Sudan so that there will be room for free movements and settlements in each other's country since the both countries were one before they broke up and the government of both countries should resolve all issues, participate while representation should be effective in all governmental institutions at various levels as this can strengthen their relationship which on the long run will impact positively on regional stability.
Academia.com, 2024
In: Jancsák Csaba & Krémer András (szerk.) Kisvárosi fiatalok, kisebbségek, új sebezhetőségek : csatlakozás az Európai Ifjúsági Térségbe. pp. 40-55. (2016) ISBN 978-963-87084-9-6 (online, pdf), 2016
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