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2018 •
For the first-world citizens, globalization seems to be an all-pervasive phenomenon; however, the global connectivity rates differ dramatically for various countries. What will the situation be in, let say, fifty years? The article aims to show how the future demographic changes can influence absolute numbers and relative proportions of societies with different levels of global connectivity. To estimate the national rates of global connectivity the authors rely on the countries’ participation in global networks, such as trade in goods, trade in services, foreign direct investment (FDI), and international migration. As the scenario of the demographic future, the authors use medium population projections of 2017 calculated by the United Nations Population Division. The authors applied a two-stage method: first, they constructed network models and analyzed the structure of networks to reveal the positions of countries in order to estimate their rates of global connectivity and identify...
Journal of Adventist Mission Studies
Reaching the World’s 500 Largest Cities: A Demographic and Statistical Analysis2014 •
The year 2008 marked a significant watershed in human history: For the first time in recorded history demographers estimated that more than 50% of the global population lived in urban areas (DESA 2007:1-3, figures 1.1-2, table 1.1). The percentage of urban population is not an objective fact. The World Bank calculates urban population, for its authoritative “World Development Indicators” database, from “people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices” rather than a standard global definition (World Bank Website, see also World Bank 2013). In practice national definitions of urban areas vary significantly. For example, Canada defines an urban area as a place with 1,000 people whereas Japan uses a figure of 50,000 (Haub 2009). Nevertheless, however defined, for the first time demographers are agreed that global urban population has outstripped the rural population. The UN predicts that urban population will continue to grow by 1.8 percent per year from 2007 to ...
For the first-world citizens, globalization seems to be an all-pervasive phenomenon; however, the global connectivity rates differ dramatically for various countries. What will the situation be in, let say, fifty years? The article aims to show how the future demographic changes can influence absolute numbers and relative proportions of societies with different levels of global connectivity. To estimate the national rates of global connectivity the authors rely on the countries' participation in global networks, such as trade in goods, trade in services, foreign direct investment (FDI), and international migration. As the scenario of the demographic future, the authors use medium population projections of 2017 calculated by the United Nations Population Division. The authors applied a two-stage method: first, they constructed network models and analyzed the structure of networks to reveal the positions of countries in order to estimate their rates of global connectivity and identify six groups of countries according to their global connectivity rates. Second, the authors combined the results of network analysis with demographic projections to find out how many people are expected to live in the countries with different connectivity rates in the nearest decades (let say, up to 2050) and in the more distant future (2100). The results show that nearly a half of the world population (3.46 billion) lives in highly-connected countries but the situation will dramatically change in the coming decades. The proportion of population in the highly-and highly-medium-connected countries will decline by 2050 and further by 2100, while the proportion of residents of medium-and low-connected (and to some extent of lowest-low-connected) countries will significantly grow. The article considers the relationship between globalization and the global demographic landscape to show how the demographic changes can affect globalization (and vice versa) in the nearest and more distant future (until 2100). However, our interpretation of globalization depends on its definition, and we believe that a comprehensive definition providing a multi-dimensional systemic vision of globalization was suggested by the prominent scholar George Modelski who combined two approaches:
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