Global Crisis

The economic crisis which started to affect the world economy in 2008 has affected the sustainability and future course of all global phenomena, including foreign direct investment (FDI) carried out by multinational enterprises (MNE). In world FDI flows, the year 2008 marked the end of a cycle: As the crisis unfolded and corporate and project finance was weakening, all kinds of equity investment including FDI came under pressure. At the “epicentre” of the crisis, developed countries suffered from a fall of FDI by 25% in 2008, compared to a decline of 15% globally. In contrast, FDI increased by 7% in developing countries and 24% in South-East Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States. Evidence for the new EU member states remained mixed: FDI inflows continued to growth by 34% in Romania, 8% in Hungary and 3% in the Czech Republic, but fell in Poland (-28%).

Analysing trends in bank deposits between 2008 and 2012, this note argues that bank depositors by and large seemed to prefer to move their money to nationalised banks. Just like any investor, depositors responded to the crisis by moving their deposits from one bank group to another, from one maturity to another, or to other assets more rewarding than bank deposits.

Energy and Economy are tightly bound to each other, primarily due to physical reasons. Indeed, energy is the unit measuring the quantity of transformation in a system, and the economic activities transform resources into useful goods and services. Due to transport, oil is the ultimate source of energy for a globalised economy. In this context, the peak of oil, corresponding to the moment when the global oil production reaches a maximum, and then declines, might be a critical issue. This thesis studies what the European Commission might plan in this context.
In a first chapter the expectable future of oil supply is exposed. It appears that the global oil production is likely to peak before the end of the current decade. Moreover, the conventional oil production peaked in 2006, and the European production peaked in 2000 (declined by 46% in 2011). Besides, the post-peak decline rate is around 6% per year, and at least 16 out of the 20 biggest oil fields have already passed their peak (these 20 fields represent 25% of the oil production).
Then, the second chapter is dedicated to the impacts of an energy shortage on the socio-economic system, and to the solutions planned. Based on the academic literature, the impacts are assessed from historical events during which societies suffered from a huge energy crunch (North Korea and Cuba after the Soviet Union demise). Furthermore, the historical oil price is analysed, especially the price elasticity (based on empirical data from EIA and World Bank). It results that the volume of oil produced is almost unresponsive to the price since 2004-5. Moreover, based on the fiscal break-even of Saudi Arabia and on the carrying capacity of China, the range of future prices is [100;120] dollars per barrel, while the carrying capacity of western societies is around 90 dollars. Finally, the chapter discusses the technological solutions (liquid fuels production from coal, gas and biomass, mainly) and their limits. Apart from the negative impacts in terms of greenhouse gases and potential scarcities (lithium, lands, coal and gas), the most problematic limit is probably the EROEI (Energy Return On Energy Invested), which is decreasing. It means that the energy surplus available for the society is shrinking. An increasing amount of resources (energy included) is diverted for the sake of oil and gas industry.
The last chapter describes the reasons why we cannot rely on decoupling and dematerialisation, to maintain economic growth while the energy supply diminishes. In particular, based on empirical data (World Bank and International Labour Organization) the absence of negative correlation between the energy consumption per capita and the share of labour force in services is evidenced. Besides, the decoupling effect has never been observed at the global scale, and the partial one is controversial. Consequently, another paradigm is proposed and briefly discussed, namely degrowth, based on the dedicated academic literature. Finally, the last section gathers some unusual proposals, which the European Commission might examine to cope with the Peak Oil, without economic growth.

Domestic tourism has proven to be an important driver of tourism industry globally. In Kenya, tourism industry is a critical economic pillar. Empirical evidence reveals that domestic tourism accounts for a huge amount of travel and tourism spending. Globally, domestic tourism has equally generated many employment opportunities and contributed to the overall economic growth. While seasonality is a common phenomenon in the travel industry, domestic tourism has been a useful tool to ameliorate the negative impacts of seasonality. The recent global health pandemic (Covid-19) has greatly affected international tourism – a market that many tourism destinations (such as Kenya) depend on. At the height of Covid -19, followed the ban on international flights to Kenya, the country saw a sharp drop in international arrivals (from 1.5 million 2019 to 0.4 million at the end of 2020). This paper seeks to put into perspective the role of domestic tourism amid such crises, in sustaining tourism related businesses in Kenya. A desktop review was adopted to establish how domestic tourism has and is supporting the tourism sector. The review questions included the following: (i) what is the potential of domestic tourism in Kenya.  (ii) What are the current trends of domestic tourism in Kenya, (iii) what are the constraints limiting the uptake of tourism in Kenya? Findings of the review revealed that domestic tourism is an important niche market that has played a critical role during Covid-19 pandemic and should never be underestimated. Among the constraints identified were lack of awareness, and price related constraints. Some of the popular trends in domestic tourism in Kenya includes; increase in day trips/excursions, seaside resort tourism, and visit to game parks/reserves and sightseeing. These findings are key in guiding tourism policy development and implementations to focus on domestic tourism.

The first half of 2008 was marked by significant rises in commodity prices, with food price increases averaging 52 percent between 2007 and 2008. While the response to the wider situation is largely outside the scope of humanitarian programmes, those managing relief and recovery efforts have faced a number of challenges. This paper lays out the background to the food price rises, outlines a number of key challenges for those planning and managing relief efforts, and suggests ideas, tools and approaches that could prove of value.

RESUMEN En el marco del giro proteccionista y la geoestrategia "americanista" y "antiglobalista" implementada por el gobierno de Donald Trump en Estados Unidos, bajo el programa reindustrializador del nuevo mandatario y las fuerzas sociales que lo sustentan, los grandes tratados comerciales de las anteriores administraciones fueron abandonados o puestos en cuestión. Así, el Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte (TLCAN, o NAFTA por sus siglas en inglés) fue renegociado desde agosto de 2017 con México y Canadá, arribando en septiembre de 2018 al flamante Tratado entre México, Estados Unidos y Canadá (T-MEC, o USMCA por sus siglas en inglés). Se aborda en este trabajo el anuncio de ese tratado como un hecho geoestratégico, en tanto institucionalidad supranacional que cristaliza una relación de fuerzas en América del Norte y el continente americano en general, con implicancias globales. Se trabajan las dimensiones, ganadores y perdedores del tratado, tanto para los países miembros como para América Latina, y cómo se enmarca ello en la disputa en curso por la reconfiguración del orden mundial. El T-MEC aparece, en fin, como una victoria importante para el trumpismo, estratégicamente para sus fines de retener la supremacía global y de cara a las elecciones presidenciales de 2020. Mientras que para Canadá y México representa un alivio frente a la posibilidad de que EEUU abandonara el TLCAN, con las importantes implicancias que ello ocasionaría en los tres países, dada la profunda integración económica norteamericana a que dio lugar ese tratado, desde su entrada en vigor en 1994.

This paper critically evaluates the recent shift away from a “thin” reading of monetary exchange, which views money transactions as universally market-like and profit-motivated, towards “thicker” readings of exchange, which identify the permeation of wider economic relations and not-for-profit logics. To do this, an empirical study is reported of what happens when money penetrates informal exchanges between family, friends and neighbours. The research findings lead to a more nuanced reading of monetary exchange being brought to light. The main finding is that the imagery and perception of paid informal transactions may be constructed and interpreted in “thin” terms by participants, even if the core motives and personal relations involved in paid mutual aid remain “thick.” Significantly, while such a finding does not constitute a change in behaviour towards “thin” marker readings of economic exchange, it may explain why some people are dissuaded

Under the current global economic circumstances, characterized by growing uncertainties and the endurance of financial crisis effects, the approach of endogenous factors that contribute to the economic growth and welfare improvement is of major interest for academics and decision makers. The endogenous forces of development have a
significant impact at both national and regional levels under the impact of recovery measures and actions related to different areas of economic policy. This book focuses on the complex dialectics between endogenous and exogenous components of local economic
development, highlighting the main factors behind endogenous processes and emphasizing the particular importance of activating the regional endogenous potential in the case of Romania. The authors’ work is based on the interpretation of the main theories on endogenous development at national and regional level, completed by a multifaceted
analysis based on statistical methods and econometric techniques for assessing competitive and comparative advantages to support economic growth and social development. The study has highlighted the need of a policy mix that would support the development of areas
with a relatively lower development level, under the circumstances of a polycentric regional development. An optimal combination between top-down and bottom-up interventions may prove to be the most successful, offering an effective compatibility of decentralization with the coordination and monitoring requirements, supporting the smart specialization at regional level, that could create spillover effects at national level. The authors have pointed out the strategic orientations of regional growth for 2014-2020 resulting from Romania’s Territorial Agenda and the Regional Operational Programme, revealing the most important challenges in relation to endogenous development factors and the perspectives of regional convergence at EU level.

This paper shows that the analysis of commodity chains (CC) can be fruitfully employed to respond to recent calls in the field of global/world history for a periodisation of globalisation. The place to be studied in this paper is Mauritius, a small island in the Western Indian Ocean that has a very particular history of colonial and postcolonial integration into the capitalist world system. The entry of Mauritius into the British Empire brought about a particular kind of integration of the island into the capitalist world system. Central to this integration was the production of sugar under the West Indian Sugar Protocol, with this ultimately turning Mauritius from a free port into a plantation economy. This shaped the island’s economic and political practice, and brought the formation of a range of institutions that sustained a high degree of inequality among Mauritians by finding ever newer ways of conciliating socio-economic mobility with exploitation.

This article focuses on the evolutionary dynamics of the world economy after the Second World War to current day by reviewing the subject in evolutionary and holistic terms. In particular, its purpose is to examine the structuring of the current crisis and the prospects for overcoming it by advancing toward a new developmental phase, a new sustainable model of global development. We articulate our approach precisely at the link between the interconnection and the dialectic interdependence of the central structural components of global dynamics. In this direction, we introduce, propose, and utilize a three-sided structural analysis of global dynamics, a triptych. In particular, we claim that the changes in the global system are imprinted and can be studied at three co-located and dialectically interwoven central structural levels: at the level of current international regimes, at the level of central models of development and crisis, and at the level of the dominant types of business innovation. As a whole and on every level, the structural changes define and form in the background the evolutionary dynamics of the world economy, and thus by extension prescribe the conditions for the global system to construct the trajectory to exit from its current crisis.

The monograph is devoted to the problems of the origins, development and present situation of statehood. It also provides the forecasts of political development in the coming decades. The book touches upon a wide range of issues and topics, including: What alternatives did state have in evolution? Which main evolutionary stages has it passed as a structure? What are early, developed and mature types of the state? Were Athens and Rome Republic states? What new coalitions of countries will be possible in the nearest decades?
The book presents a new approach to the causes and models of the emergence of the state, to the state’s position among the forms competing with it (analogues of the early state) and new models of the state’s evolution. Today in their full swing are the processes of transformation of state sovereignty, change of state’s nature and functions and countries` integration into supranational communities. In the last chapter the reasons are explained of the inexplicable, at first glance, phenomenon why modern states voluntarily reduce their sovereign prerogatives.
Without the analysis of the statehood genesis and development, it is almost impossible to understand the course of human history and modern condition of World System as well as the possible directions of its transition. So we hope the book will be interesting to a broad audience both to specialists in political anthropology, philosophy, political studies, future studies, globalization studies, historical sociology, cultural evolution as well as to anyone interested in history and modern political problems and global trends.

COP21 was widely hailed by environmentalists, politicians, and much of the media as “a landmark” and “turning point” in the struggle against global climate change. Yet, there was no binding agreement on emissions reductions, financing of programs, or penalties for non-compliance. Instead, there was a celebration of the rapidly-growing “ambition” on the part of the parties to the agreement. One must suspect that this event was a continuation of the politics of the gesture that was exhibited in previous spectacular events such as the last year’s “People’s Climate March.” Published on the "It Is What It Isn't" Blog, Changing Suns Press, Dec. 18, 2015.

In questi anni il lavoro ha subito un profondo e repentino mutamento. Infatti, se tale mutamento ha radici negli anni Ottanta, lo scoppio della crisi economica globale può essere assunto come spartiacque nella sua storia. Nel settembre 2008 il sistema capitalista “fordista”, che aveva dominato il Novecento, improvvisamente svelò, a chi era disposto a cogliere i significati di quell’evento e aveva gli strumenti per farlo, le trasformazioni che ne stavano cambiando le strutture profonde al punto da far sospettare la sua fine e l’avvento di un nuovo sistema economico, comandato da nuovi meccanismi. Con esso, anche il lavoro che ne era stato protagonista, ha cambiato modi e forma, assieme alle relazioni, condizioni e cultura che lo avevano caratterizzato per decenni e con i diritti che aveva conquistato. Il lavoro si trova così a un tratto “senza rete”. Questo nuovo, pericoloso modo di essere si manifesta, quindi, con la crisi e nella crisi. Partire da questa ci consente di fare ipotesi sui nuovi modi del lavoro

This article looks at the situation of civil servants in interwar Romania, as a result of global economic and financial crisis, which led, during 1929-1933, to a significant deterioration in the level of wages and living standards for all state employees. As a result of bankruptcies, restrictions in economic activity or application of „sacrifice curves” [curbe de sacrificiu] in the public sector, poverty and unemployment amongst the branches of intellectual labor have reached an alarming rate. Confronted with economic difficulties and the necessity of budgetary compressions, the Romanian state was forced to impose three sacrifice curves (January 1931, January 1932, January 1933) and took various other measures of “harmonization” and “rectification” of the government employees’ remuneration, which resulted in the slashing by more than 50% of the salary of civil servants. As a result of these austerity measures, the specter of extreme hunger, disease, misery and despair (constantly lurking over the troubled, impoverished life of the petty civil servant, whose large families resided mainly in the shabby slums of the big cities) became an objective and recurrent reality for the destiny of this social class throughout the period studied. Dismissals on political grounds, abusive references to the disciplinary committee as a result of “anonymous” denunciation, interminable court processes, complete the picture of the sad miserable lives lived by most of the Romanian petty civil servants.

This monograph series presents case studies of approaches to complex problems which exist in human systems throughout the globe. The first issue of the monograph illustrates an approach for creating a structured understanding of the global challenges delineated by the Millennium Project and critical problems identified in the Predicament of Mankind Proposal. It concludes with a reflection on implications for New Strategic Theory and Social Mediation - Communication Theory for democratization.

El presente ensayo expone un conjunto de reflexiones sobre la educación, tomando en cuenta ideas de Edgar  Morin  y  algunos  intelectuales  latinoamericanos.  Es  un  ejercicio  hermenéutico  en  correspondencia  con  una línea  de  investigación  denominada:  problemáticas  sociales  y  complejidad  pedagógica,  que  el  autor  viene desarrollando en diferentes instituciones de educación universitaria del oriente de Venezuela. Como punto de partida han  estado  las  diversas  manifestaciones  de  la  crisis  ultidimensional  que  afecta  a  la  humanidad.  Algunas conclusiones están en el siguiente orden: escuelas como centros de formación para la reflexión permanente y la ética humano-ambiental, desarrollo de la conciencia planetaria, el valor del esfuerzo colectivo en la creación de nuevos modos de vivir y la aventura del conocimiento abriendo caminos de esperanza. En tal sentido, se sugieren planes de estudio  flexibles, con  un  centro  operador  de  reflexión  que gire  alrededor  de los acontecimientos  que le  dan  valor educativo a la cotidianidad. Sobre esa base promover la descolonización de las mentes (el desaprender y el saber pensar), el desarrollo del pensamiento ecologizado, la investigación transdisciplinaria y la cultura investigativa como punto de inflexión para una nueva y promisoria humanidad.

El presente trabajo fue realizado en el Seminario de Globalización, procesos de integración regional y el Mercosur, Facultad de Ciencias Economicas, UNLP. Intentamos, de manera resumida, hacer un análisis sobre el rol que juegan las economías emergentes en la crisis global y el papel que ocuparan en los próximos años.

"This commentary sketches the prospective role of The New Strategic Theory (espoused by the Communication Strategies Ibero-American Forum (FISEC)), and emerging communication theories of Latin America in revamping our approach to deliberation and democratization to address global challenges.

The attached file is a draft of my commentary on the Monograph.

The full monograph is available at: http://www.academia.edu/3386273/Strategic_Articulation_of_Actions_to_Cope_with_the_Huge_Challenges_of_our_World_Today"

In this article, based on the past/current local housing finance initiatives,market conditions, national housing policy and lessons from global financial crisis, we examine whether market based housing finance system may provide efficient policy instrument to solve housing (finance) question of Turkey. We used literature review and data/case study analyses to examine research question. We conclude that market based housing finance initiatives in Turkey were generally unsuccessful. The reasons of the failure of development of affordable mortgage products through market based housing finance system may be summarized as: sub-optimal design of housing finance system/instruments/intermediaries, macro-economic instabilities and lack of efficient subsidy mechanisms. Moreover, Mortgage Law No. 5582, the latest market-based housing finance regulation in Turkey, seems also unsuccesfull due to inherent/clear structural problems. Therefore, as a policy suggestion, we would like to emphasize that current Turkish market-based housing finance system requires a new design based on lessons from global financial crisis and also an efficient incentive structure.

It has been more than a year since the coronavirus (COVID-19) engulfed the whole world, disturbing the daily routine, bringing down the economies, and killing two million people across the globe at the time of writing. The pandemic brought the world together to a joint effort to find a cure and work toward developing a vaccine. Much to the anticipation, the first batch of vaccines started rolling out by the end of 2020, and many countries began the vaccination drive early on while others still waiting in anticipation for a successful trial. Social media, meanwhile, was bombarded with all sorts of both positive and negative stories of the development and the evolving coronavirus situation. Many people were looking forward to the vaccines, while others were cautious about the side-effects and the conspiracy theories resulting in mixed emotions. This study explores users’ tweets concerning the COVID-19 vaccine and the sentiments expressed on Twitter. It tries to evaluate the polarity t...

Abstract
In the process of global financial crisis, short sale transactions were banned at the countries having a developed capital markets to protect consumers and financial system. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and U.K. Financial Services Authority were the leading regulators adopted such restrictions. In this article, the author considers whether banning aprroach to the short sale transactions represent the right policy for the global and local financial markets’ systemic safety. Essential reasons of the recent financial crisis are based on fundemental problems of the economy and financial system rather than market based speculations. Therefore, by analysing relevant arguments in the literature and statistical data, it is concluded that administrative policies emerging to ban on short sale transactions would not enough to reverse crisis conditions. On the other hand, the author suggests short sale transactions on ISE would need additional regulation and supervision to enhance market and transaction safety.

It has been more than a year since the coronavirus (COVID-19) engulfed the whole world, disturbing the daily routine, bringing down the economies, and killing two million people across the globe at the time of writing. The pandemic brought the world together to a joint effort to find a cure and work toward developing a vaccine. Much to the anticipation, the first batch of vaccines started rolling out by the end of 2020, and many countries began the vaccination drive early on while others still waiting in anticipation for a successful trial. Social media, meanwhile, was bombarded with all sorts of both positive and negative stories of the development and the evolving coronavirus situation. Many people were looking forward to the vaccines, while others were cautious about the side-effects and the conspiracy theories resulting in mixed emotions. This study explores users’ tweets concerning the COVID-19 vaccine and the sentiments expressed on Twitter. It tries to evaluate the polarity t...

Work culture is an integrative component of the transformation process. At first sight, Hungarian work culture appears globalized, but many of the globalized or “westernized” characteristics remain superficial. The lack of a deeply-rooted democratic culture can easily be traced at the workplace. The entrance of multinational companies in Hungary has provided opportunities and challenges to the Hungarian workforce, including the model of the “globally integrated enterprise”. While multinational enterprises become more integrated and efficient on the global level, their local social and economic contexts disintegrate. If new forms of cooperation and partnership will emerge, a new work culture in Hungary could increase in momentum and flourish. Identifying critical junctures in work culture has underscored the need for new partnerships among employees and employers who together can positively change the economic landscape and prospects for the future. This study is based on empirical research by using the methodology of value sociology and value surveys. Its major conclusion is that reinventing Hungarian work culture might be a difficult and complex process but nevertheless it is possible and also inevitable.

""This book addresses the viability of the EU economic and social model within and after the global economic crisis. It identifies four key issues which warrant further discussion: (1) the asymmetry of the legal and policy framework of the euro and potential recalibration; (2) substantive tensions between the EU ‘economic constitution’ and its normative aim of social justice and impacts on national policy; (3) the role of civil society, including the two sides of industry in overcoming these tensions and (4) the EU’s global aspirations towards the creation of a viable socio-economic model. Its chapters offer two perspectives on each of the four main issues.

In drawing these debates together, the book provides a broad understanding as well as starting points for future research. Bringing together different disciplinary approaches, ranging from legal studies to political economy, sociology and macroeconomics, it is a valuable contribution to the debate on the European social model and introduces new insights by focusing on legal and political tensions, the impact of the financial crisis and other economic contexts as well as global dimensions."

I am unable to upload the book, but the introductory chapter is partly available on the publishers page:
http://www.ashgate.com/isbn/9781409457312

It is available as CELLS online paper as well
http://www.law.leeds.ac.uk/assets/files/events/Schiek-(2013)-The-EU's-socio-economic-model(s)-and-the-crisi(e)s---any-perspectives.pdf

The recent Brazilian policy agenda has not been able to improve the business environment in order to increase the resiliency of micro and small enterprises over time. Business sustainability is particularly relevant in a global scenario where, among the major challenges, the crisis has restated the menace of a deep depression while livelihood conditions turned out to be subordinated to the bailout of the domestic financial systems.As a matter of fact, the current global financial architecture has seriously affected the pace of long-run investment and threatened the survival of micro and small enterprises. Taking into account this background, our main concern is to reflect on how entrepreneurship sustainability is influenced by finance in contemporary Brazil-mainly after the 2008 global crisis.

This study, which was based on the Pragmatism research philosophy, sought to determine the extent to which the COVID-19 global pandemic had disrupted the school system in the SNNPR and the Oromia Regional States of Ethiopia. Both quantitative and qualitative data strands were collected simultaneously using an embedded research design. The surveys were completed by 268 teachers and 575 pupils in order to determine the level of disturbance and the strategies in place. In addition, 10 school principals and 10 Wereda education office heads took part in the interview. The study identified that the COVID-19 global pandemic has significantly disrupted (F=3.76829, P<0.05) the education systems in the above two regions. The government's policies and tactics to avert the scenario were not properly executed at the grassroots level. As a result, in order to solve such an unusual educational crisis, this study developed an integrative model incorporating system variables, administrative variables, academic variables, and student variables.  Therefore, this study recommends challenging ‘reinventing the wheel’ by applying diversifying teacher training practices, improving school level technologies, and adapting emergency responsive education policies at the school level.

How do external and internal adaptation pressures influence the transformation of the party-state system in China? How susceptible is the Chinese systemtransformation to those impacts? This paper deals with the sensitivity of the transformation process on the short-term under different external conditions: both during the period of global economic growth and the period of global crisis. Our approach is institutional and systemic, in view of the postulates of the Interactive Party-State (IPS) model (Csan di, 2006). We shall conclude that the transformation process demonstrates sensitivity to short-term impacts that cause fluctuations in the direction and speed of the transformation process both during growth and decline. Moreover, we shall reveal that sensitivity to- and consequences of internal and external adaptation pressures show different spatial characteristics.

By placing three books on global leadership in conversation with one another, I make a case for revitalising political leadership studies. Two questions are asked of each reviewed book: 1. What is the difference between leadership and the modern sovereign relation? 2. What desires underlie calls for global leadership and what are their implications for future world politics? Although they present widely divergent perspectives, each of the three books argues that the leadership desired in global governance is of a distinct mode from that of modern sovereignty. Whereas the modern sovereign relation, as Jean-Luc Nancy writes, is based on the simultaneous authorship of the sovereign and the people, leadership in global governance is based on management without such authority. The leadership sought in global governance is a radically open, subjectless management that necessitates a global cultural malleability. While the ahistorical portrayal of the people’s everlasting identity continues to be the modern sovereign’s preoccupation, today eternal identity is becoming the paranoia of a global leadership that seeks to transform life on its own political strategies. In two of the books reviewed, counter leaderships are seen to foster new practices of solidarity and invent new meanings of the world. The paper concludes with some comments on the revitalisation of political leadership studies.