Review of Technical Assessment of NREAPs

Review of Technical Assessment of National Renewable Energy Action Plans Manjola Banja, Fabio Monforti-Ferrario, Nicolae Scarlat 2013 Report EUR 25757 EN European Commission Joint Research Centre Institute for Energy and Transport - IET Contact information Manila Banja Address: Joint Research Centre, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, TP 450, 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy E-mail: Manjola.Banja@ec.europa.eu Tel.: +39 0332 78 3992 Fax: +39 0332 78 9268 http://iet.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ This publication is a Reference Report by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. Legal Notice Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of this publication. Europe Direct is a service to help you find answers to your questions about the European Union Freephone number (*): 00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 (*) Certain mobile telephone operators do not allow access to 00 800 numbers or these calls may be billed. A great deal of additional information on the European Union is available on the Internet. It can be accessed through the Europa server http://europa.eu/. JRC 77765 EUR 25757 EN ISBN 978-92-79-28219-5 ISSN 1018-5593 doi: 10.2790/75884 Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2013 © European Union, 2013 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. Printed in Luxembourg REVIEW OF TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT OF NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY ACTION PLANS Manjola Banja, Fabio Monforti-Ferrario, Nicolae Scarlat Last update: December, 2012 Preface ............................................................................................................................................ 3 Report Highlights .......................................................................................................................... 4 1. Gross Final Energy Consumption ................................................................................................ 5 2. Total Renewable Energy Sources ............................................................................................... 6 3. Renewable Energy Sectors ......................................................................................................... 7 3.1 Electricity ...................................................................................................................... 7 3.2 Heat and Cooling ........................................................................................................ 11 3.3 Transport .................................................................................................................... 13 4. Renewable Energy Technologies .............................................................................................. 15 4.1 Hydropower ................................................................................................................ 15 4.1.1 Leading countries ............................................................................................. 16 4.2 Geothermal.................................................................................................................. 16 4.2.1 Leading countries .............................................................................................. 18 4.3 Marine ......................................................................................................................... 18 4.4 Solar ............................................................................................................................ 20 4.3.1 Solar Photovoltaic............................................................................................... 21 4.3.2 Concentrated solar power................................................................................... 22 4.3.3 Leading countries ............................................................................................... 22 4.5 Wind ............................................................................................................................ 23 4.5.1 Onshore wind ..................................................................................................... 23 4.5.2 Offshore wind ..................................................................................................... 24 4.5.3 Leading countries ............................................................................................... 24 4.6 Biomass....................................................................................................................... 25 4.6.1 Biomass heating ................................................................................................. 26 4.6.2 Biomass electricity .............................................................................................. 26 4.6.3 Leading countries ............................................................................................... 27 4.7 Biofuels........................................................................................................................ 28 4.8 EU Deficits and Surpluses ........................................................................................... 30 Review Highlights ....................................................................................................................... 32 Gross Final Energy Consumption ...................................................................................... 33 Total Renewable Energy Sources ..................................................................................... 34 Electricity ........................................................................................................................... 35 Heat and Cooling ............................................................................................................... 36 Transport ........................................................................................................................... 37 Hydropower ....................................................................................................................... 37 Geothermal........................................................................................................................ 38 Marine ............................................................................................................................... 39 Solar .................................................................................................................................. 40 Wind .................................................................................................................................. 41 Biomass............................................................................................................................. 42 Biofuels.............................................................................................................................. 43 List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ 44 List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. 45 Annex I - Updated Figures of JRC 2011 Report ............................................................................ 46 Annex II – Updated Tables of JRC 2011 Report ........................................................................... 81 Abbreviations............................................................................................................................... 102 Units ............................................................................................................................................ 102 Glossary ...................................................................................................................................... 102 References .................................................................................................................................. 103 2 Preface In December 2011 JRC has published a Reference Report1 on the technical assessment of National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs) which had three main goals: a) to verify the achievement of an overall EU27 target of 20 % and the Member States targets, b) to compare the proposed renewable resources with resource estimates, and c) to make a comparative analysis between the data reported and the technically environmentally available and economically competitive resources in order to identify the possible risks (like capital, resources and technology risk) of the introduction and development of renewable energy technologies This report, so forth cited as (JRC, 2011) was based on the data contained in the first submission of the NREAPs, while the data in the resubmission phase of the plans were not included. After that analysis was published, updated Plans were submitted while some Member States sent feedbacks, clarifications, integrations and further information to the European Commission on their Plans. All the additional information received until December 2012 were included in the present report that provides a view of the final and consolidated NREAPs as inferred by the entire set of documents submitted by each Member State following the prescriptions of RES Directive (2009/28/EC)2 on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable energy sources and the Template for reporting established in Decision 2009/548/EC. Moreover, a deep revision and checking of data reported has been conducted in order to fix possible data misunderstanding and misreporting contained in (JRC, 2011). In the present Report national data are summarized following the same approach of JRC, 2011 presented at Report Highlights and differences with the previously reported data are putted into evidence in the Review Highlights, while Annex I and II contain the updated versions of Figures and Tables of (JRC, 2011). The authors would like to thank their colleagues Roberto Lacal Arantegui for providing comments to the draft report and Katalin Bódis for the editorial support. et al. – Technical Assessment of the Renewable Energy Action Plans - EUR 24962 EN – available at http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/jrc/downloads/jrc_reference_report_2011_reap.pdf 2 http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=Oj:L:2009:140:0016:0062:en:PDF 1Szabo 3 Report Highlights 4 1. Gross Final Energy Consumption The National Renewable Energy Action Plan template requires Member States to develop two scenarios for the expected Gross Final Energy Consumption (GFEC) covering the years until 2020 in the sectors of electricity, heating and cooling as well as transport, a) the Reference Scenario (REF) which takes into account only the energy efficiency and saving measures adopted before 2009, b) the Additional Energy Efficiency Scenario (AEE) which considers all energy efficiency and saving measures adopted and expected to be adopted after 2009. According to Article 5.6 of the Directive 2009/28/EC, the Gross Final Energy Consumption has to be reduced in order to compensate the relatively large share of aviation in the MS gross final consumption of energy. The GFEC is expressed as "Total before aviation" and" Total after aviation". For the calculation purpose the GFEC here referenced is the "Total after aviation". The gross final energy consumption in 2020 based on REF is projected to reach 54951 PJ (1312.5 Mtoe) with an increase of 8.6% (CAGR3 0.8%) in the period 2010-2020 and of 7.4% (CAGR 0.5%) in the period 2005-2020. According to AEE Scenario the gross final energy consumption will reach in 2020 the amount of 49423PJ (1180 Mtoe) with a decrease of 0.4% (CAGR -0.04%) in 2010-2020 and 3.4% (CAGR -0.23%) in 2005-2020 (Figure 1) (Annex II, Table 5). Gross Final Energy Consumption (PJ) 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 REF Scenario 2018 2019 2020 AEE Scenario Figure 1. Gross Final Energy Consumption in 2005-2020 upon REF and AEE Scenarios, EU 27 Gross Final Energy Consumption upon AEE scenario during period 2010-2020 is projected to decrease in some MS as Germany, France and UK by 11.8%, 5.5% and 4.2% respectively. The growth of GFEC for all other MS will be positive as in Malta, Lithuania, Latvia, Romania and Ireland by 23.3%, 20.9%, 18.9%, 17.1% and 16.7% respectively. 3 Compound Annual Growth Rate 5 The share of electricity, heat and cooling and transport sectors in the reported gross final energy consumption in 2010 was estimated 23.9%, 46% and 26.4% respectively and for 2020 is projected to be 25.7%, 44.2% and 26.5% (Figure 2). Subdivision of GFEC by sectors, 2010 3,6% Subdivision of GFEC by sectors, 2020 3,6% 26,4% 26,5% 44,2% 46,0% 23,9% 25,7% Heat & Cooling Transport in Art 3(4)a Electricity Other (uncounted) Heat & Cooling Transport in Art 3(4)a Electricity Other (uncounted) Figure 2. Share of electricity, heat and cooling and transport sectors in GFEC in 2010 (left) - 2020 (right), EU 27 In absolute terms, the annual energy consumption in heating and cooling sector will show an overall decrease in 2010-2020 by 988 PJ (23.6 Mtoe), almost equally distributed along the years. On the contrary, electricity consumption will increase by 829 PJ (19.8 Mtoe) in the period 2011-2020. The consumption in transport sector is projected to remain almost constant during the years. Gross Final Energy Consumption will present very slightly changes during the years up to 2020. The additional consumption in 2020 compared to 2010 will be 7.4 times smaller than the additional consumption that was estimated for 2010 compared to 2005 (Table 1). Table 1. Yearly additional consumption in gross final energy consumption upon AEE Scenario (PJ), EU 27 Heat & Cooling Electricity Transport GFEC 2005-2010 -1827 106 82 -1544 2011 -67 76 12 47 2012 -103 81 44 13 2013 -93 83 14 2 2014 -117 73 22 -16 2015 -104 77 23 -5 2016 -112 89 -15 -58 2017 -110 83 -22 -44 2018 -89 91 -33 -132 2019 -94 88 -5 -39 2020 -101 88 -63 23 2. Total Renewable Energy Sources (RES) The analysis of Total Renewable Energy Sources is focuses mainly on overall data on the total installed capacity (reference to Table 10a of the Template) and energy generation (reference to Table 10b, Table 11 and Table 12 of the Template). The analysis of the different technological components and sources is presented separately in next chapters. The analysis takes also into account the corrections done for renewable transport related to double counting according to Article 5.1 of the Directive. The share of total RES in gross final energy consumption in 2010 was estimated to be equal to 11.5 % and for 2020 is projected to reach 20.6% (Annex II, Table 13). The total RES installed capacity is forecasted to increase by 91.2% (226.9 GW additional) in 2010-2020 showing a CAGR of 6.7% (Annex II, Table 21). 6 2010-2020 -988 829 -22 -209 The total installed RES capacity in 2005 was found to be equal to 167.7 GW –all renewables (Figure 3) and 59.3 GW w/o hydropower. The installed capacity in 2005-2010 period is estimated to increase by 48.4 % with a CAGR equal to 8.2%. (Annex II, Table 21). 500 10336,7 476 10000 5808,2 300 4188,4 249 5000 200 Generated (PJ) Installed (GW) 400 167,7 100 0 0 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Installed 2017 2018 2019 2020 Generated Figure 3. Total RES installed capacity and energy generated, EU 27 - all renewables The installed capacity of non hydro sources in 2010 was estimated to be 2.2 times higher than in 2005 reaching 135 GW and having a CAGR of 17.9%. In 2010-2020 the increase of installed capacity of nonhydro sources is expected to be 2.6 times larger up to 348 GW with a CAGR of 9.9%. Total RES generation in 2005 amounted to 4188.4 PJ (1163 TWh) and for 2010 was estimated to be 5808.2 PJ (1613 TWh). For 2020 total RES generation is expected to increase by 78.0% reaching 10336.7 PJ (2871 TWh) showing a CAGR of 5.9% (Figure 3) (Annex II, Table 18). Subdivision of total RES generation by sectors, 2010 Subdivision of total RES generation by sectors, 2020 10,9% 13,0% 45,1% 49,0% 40,1% Heat & Cooling 41,9% Electricity Transport in Art 3(4)a Heat & Cooling Electricity Transport in Art 3(4)a Figure 4. Contribution of electricity, heat and cooling and transport consumption sectors in total RES generated in 2010 (left) and 2020 (right), EU 27 7 The increase of total RES generation from non hydro sources in 2010 compared with 2005 was estimated to be 1.5 times reaching 4585.2 PJ (1274 TWh) having a CAGR of 9%. In 2020 the total RES generation from non hydro sources is projected to reach 9031.4 PJ (2509 TWh) with a CAGR of 7 %. In 2020 the total RES generated will be divided among electricity, heating and cooling and transport sectors respectively by 41.9% (103.5 Mtoe/ 4331.2 PJ/ 1203 TWh), 45.1% (111.3 Mtoe/ 4659.9 PJ/ 1294.4 TWh) and 13 % (32.1 Mtoe/ 1345.6 PJ/ 373.8 TWh) (Figure 4, right). The additional total RES installed capacity in 2010-2020 is expected to be 2.8 times higher than the new installed RES capacity in 2005-2010 increasing from 81 GW to 227 GW. Additional non hydro capacity will increase by the same factor, from 75.8 GW to 213 GW (Table 2). The highest additional total RES installed capacity in 2020 will be found in Germany (57.1 GW), UK (29.1 GW), France (28.6 GW), Spain (24.5 GW) and Italy (16.3 GW). Table 2. Yearly additional renewable energy installed capacity (GW), EU 27 Total Total ( w/o Hydro) 2010-2005 81.2 75.8 2011 20.8 20.0 2012 21.0 19.4 2013 21.0 20.1 2014 20.5 19.4 2015 22.1 20.3 2016 23.1 21.3 2017 28.0 26.2 2018 19.6 18.5 2019 24.9 23.1 2020 25.8 24.8 2020-2010 227 213 The additional total RES generation in 2010-2020 is projected to increase by the same factor as RES installed capacity reaching 4528.4 PJ (1258 TWh). Additional non hydro generation will increase for the same period from 1605.6 PJ (446 TWh) to 4446.3 PJ (1235 TWh) (Table 3). Table 3. Yearly additional total renewable energy generation ( PJ), EU 27 Total Total (w/o Hydro) 2010-2005 1619.9 1605.6 2011 387.7 384.0 2012 357.8 350.9 2013 353.5 346.1 2014 372.5 364.3 2015 395.1 389.3 2016 438.3 433.1 2017 522.5 509.0 2018 509.3 502.5 2019 546.0 533.3 2020 645.8 633.9 3. Renewable energy sectors 3.1 Electricity Renewable electricity taken into analysis derived from wind, solar, geothermal, hydro, and biomass energy sources. The analysis per technology of the installed capacity and generation for this sector is based on Tables 10a and 10b of the Template. The weight of electricity consumption in the Gross Final Energy Consumption for 2020 is forecasted to be equal to 25.7% (12965 PJ or 303.2 Mtoe) with an increase of 7% compared with 2010 and a CAGR of 0.7% (Figure 2). The share of RES in the electricity sector consumption for the same year based on MS data in the Table 3 of the template is estimated to be 33.8%. In 2020 the contribution of electricity in total RES generated is projected to be equal to 41.9% increasing from 40.9 % that was estimated for 2010 (Figure 4) (Annex II, Table 11, 12, 13). In 2010 it was estimated that the main contribution in RES installed capacity will come from hydropower with 45.7% followed by wind (34.4%) and solar (10.4%). In 2020 the installed wind capacity is projected to provide the highest contribution in this sector with 44.3%, followed by hydropower with 26.8 % and solar with 18.9% (Figure 5). 8 2020-2010 4528.4 4446.3 RES share in electricity installed capacity, 2010 RES share in electricity installed capacity, 2020 45,7% 26.8% 0.3% 18.9% 9,1% 9.1% 0,3% 0.5% 10,4% 0,1% 44.3% 34,4% Hydropower Geothermal Solar Marine Wind Biomass Hydropower Geothermal Solar Marine Wind Biomass Figure 5. Renewable electricity installed capacity in source breakdown, 2010(left) – 2020 (right), EU 27 In 2010 the largest source of electricity generation was estimated to be hydropower (52.5%) followed by wind (25.6%) and biomass (17.6%). In 2020, on the contrary, wind is projected to provide the highest contribution in the electricity generation with 40.6% followed by hydropower with 30.1% and biomass with 19.5% (Figure 6). RES share in electricity generation potential, 2020 RES share in electricity generation potential, 2010 30.1% 52,5% 0.9% 8.3% 0.54% 17,6% 19.5% 0,1% 0,9% 3,2% 40.6% 25,6% Hydropower Geothermal Solar Marine Wind Biomass Hydropower Geothermal Solar Marine Wind Biomass Figure 6. Renewable electricity generation in source breakdown, 2010 (left) – 2020 (right), EU 27 The renewable electricity generated in 2005 in EU 27 from all renewables was 1736.7 PJ (482.7 TWh) (Figure 7) and from non-hydro sources 528.8 PJ (147 TWh). In 2010 the RES electricity generation is estimated to be 2328.9 PJ (647 TWh) with 1105.8 PJ (307 TWh) from non-hydro sources. The increase of total electricity generation in 2005-2010 is characterized by a CAGR of 6% and a yearly growth rate of 6.8%. In 2020, the RES electricity generation is projected to reach 4331.2 PJ (1203.1 TWh) (Figure 7) from which 3025.9 PJ (840.5 TWh) will come from non hydro sources. This increase leads to a CAGR of 6.4% and a yearly growth rate of 6.7% (Annex II, Table 19). The CAGR of renewable electricity generation from non hydro sources alone in 2010-2020 is projected to be 10.6%. 9 4331,2 500 476 4000 Installed (GW) 3000 300 2328,9 1737,6 2000 249 200 Generated (PJ) 400 167,7 1000 100 0 0 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Installed 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Generated Figure 7. Renewable electricity installed capacity and generation, EU 27 – all renewables According to NREAPs in 2020 Austria will show the highest penetration in this sector with 70.9% followed by Sweden with 62.9% and Latvia with 59.8%. Malta will have the highest RES share in this sector in 2020 with 2300%, followed by Belgium with 435% and Netherlands with 430% (Annex I, Figure 8). The leading countries in RES electricity installed capacity in 2010 based on NREAPs were Germany with 53.8GW (21.6 % of the total RES installed capacity), Spain with 39.2% (15.8 %), France with 28.8 GW (11.6%), Italy with 27.6 GW (11.1 %) and Sweden with 20.9 GW (8.4%).Their contribution to the total RES installed capacity is estimated for 68.4%. According to NREAPs the leading MS in total RES electricity generation in 2010 were Germany with 378 PJ (104.9 TWh), France with 315 PJ (87.4 TWh), Spain with 307 PJ (85.1 TWh), Sweden with 301 PJ (83.7 TWh) and Italy with 240 PJ (66.8 TWh). The contribution of these MS in the total RES electricity generation accounted for 66.2% of the total NREAPs reveal that Germany will remain the leader MS in the RES electricity installed capacity w/o hydropower in 2020 with 106.6 GW representing 30.6% of this capacity. It is followed by Spain with 49.9 GW (14.3%), UK with 36.1 GW (10.4 %), France with 33.9 GW (9.7%) and Italy with 10.9 GW (8.1%), The contribution of these MS in the total RES electricity installed capacity w/o hydropower will be 72.5%. The contribution of leading MS in the RES electricity generation w/o hydropower in 2020 will count for 66.6% due to Germany with 709 PJ (197 TWh), Spain with 403.2 PJ (112 TWh), UK with 398.2 PJ (110.6 TWh), France with 300.9 PJ (83.6 TWh) and Italy with 204.8 PJ (56.9 TWh). In 2020 the leading countries in RES electricity installed capacity will be Germany with 111 GW, Spain with 63.8 GW, France with 57.4 GW, Italy and UK with 43.8 GW ( Figure 8,left) representing 67.2% of the total RES electricity installed capacity. The RES electricity generation in 2020 will be still dominated by Germany with 217 TWh followed by France with 155.3 TWh, Spain with 144.8 TWh, UK with 117 TWh and Sweden with 97.3 TWh (Figure 8, right). Their contribution to the RES electricity generation potential will reach 60.8%. 10 Figure 8. Top MS in RES electricity installed capacity (left) and generation (right), 2020 –all renewables The additional RES annual electricity generated in 2005-2010 was estimated 591.3 PJ (164.3 TWh) for all renewables and 577 PJ (160.3 TWh) for non – hydro sources. The additional RES electricity generation in 2010-2020 will increase by a factor of nearly 3.5 compared to the additional electricity generation in 2005-2010 period (Table 4). Table 4 Yearly additional renewable electricity generation (PJ), EU 27 Total Total ( w/o Hydro) 2010-2005 591.3 577.0 2011 175.6 172.0 2012 171.9 165.0 2013 186.9 179.4 2014 183.9 175.7 2015 175.0 169.3 2016 190.3 185.1 2017 216.9 203.4 2018 224.5 217.6 2019 226.1 213.4 2020 251.1 239.2 2020-2010 2002.3 1920.1 3.2. Heating and Cooling In EU 27 the renewable energy generation from heating and cooling was estimated 2848.7 PJ (68 Mtoe) in 2010 and is projected to reach 4659.9 PJ (111.3 Mtoe) in 2020 having a CAGR 2010-2020 of 5% and a yearly growth rate of 5.8% (Figure 9). The share of renewable energy in heating and cooling consumption in 2010 was estimated 12.5% and in 2020 is projected to increase up to 21.3% (Annex II, Table RES share in H&C) According to NREAPs the heating and cooling sector was estimated to count for the highest sectoral share in the gross final energy consumption with 46% (22828.9 PJ / 545.3 Mtoe) in 2010. This sector will remain the highest consuming sector in the gross final energy consumption in 2020 with 44.2% (21841 PJ / 521.6 Mtoe) (Figure 2) with a contribution of 45% in total RES consumption (Annex II, Table 11, 12, 13). Biomass was estimated the largest contributor in RES heating and cooling in 2010 with 90.9% (2206.7 PJ / 52.7 Mtoe) and is expected to remain the leading source in 2020 with 81% (3775.2 PJ / 90.2 Mtoe). In 2020 heat pumps will follow the contribution of biomass with 10.9% (508.8 PJ / 12.1 Mtoe) having a CAGR of 11.7%. Solar thermal will follow with 5.7% (265.8 PJ / 6.3 Mtoe) showing a CAGR of 15.7% together with geothermal with 2.4% (110.1PJ / 2.6 Mtoe) (Figure 10) and a CAGR of 14.4%. 11 5000 4659,9 Generated (PJ) 4000 2848,7 3000 2279,8 2000 1000 0 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Figure 9. Renewable energy generation from heating and cooling, EU 27 RE share in heating and cooling, 2020 RE share in heating and cooling, 2010 5,7% 81,0% 90,9% 2,2% 2,4% 1,0% 5,9% 10,9% Geothermal Solar Biomass Heat pumps Geothermal Solar Biomass Heat pumps Figure 10. Renewable energy in Heating & Cooling sector: source breakdown in 2010 (left) - 2020 (right), EU 27 In 2020 Sweden will show the highest RES penetration in heating and cooling sector with 62% followed by Latvia with 53% and Finland with 47%. The highest RES share in this sector will be found in UK with 1200%, in Luxemburg with 405% and in Belgium with 340% (Annex I, Figure 11). In absolute values, according to NREAPs France was the leading MS in 2010 with the highest heating and cooling generation from RES with 465.5 PJ (11 Mtoe) followed by Germany with 460 PJ (10.1 Mtoe), Sweden with 345 PJ (8.2 Mtoe), Finland with 218 PJ (5.2 Mtoe) and Poland with 167 PJ (4 Mtoe) (Figure 11, left). In 2020 France has projected to be still the leading MS with nearly 826.1 PJ (20 Mtoe) which represents 17.7 % of the total RES in heating and cooling sector in EU27. In 2020 France will be followed by Germany with 604.2 PJ (14.4 Mtoe), Sweden with 441.1 PJ (10.5 Mtoe), Italy with 437.8 PJ (10.4 Mtoe) and Finland with 304.4 PJ (7.3 Mtoe) (Figure 11, right). Together with UK with 259.5 PJ (6.2 Mtoe), Poland with 247.9 PJ (5.9 Mtoe) and Spain with 224.3 PJ (5.3 Mtoe) the contribution of these 8 MS will represent 72% of the total heating and cooling generation in EU 27 for 2020. 12 Figure 11. Top MS in RES generation from heating and cooling, 2010(left) - 2020 (right) The additional yearly RES generation in this sector will double from 2011 to 2020, increasing from 127.4 PJ (3.1 Mtoe) to 254.3 PJ (6.1 Mtoe). The additional RES generated in this sector in 2010-2020 will be 3 times higher than the additional RES generation in 2005-2010 period (Table 5). Table 5. Yearly additional renewable energy in heating and cooling sector (PJ), EU 27 2010-2005 Generation 568.9 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 127.4 127.4 142.0 139.9 164.8 190.6 199.9 214.0 250.9 254.3 2020-2010 1811.2 3.3. Transport The contribution of the transport sector in the gross final energy consumption for 2010 was estimated 26.4 % (13043 PJ/313.5 Mtoe) and in 2020 in relative terms this contribution will remain almost the same (26.5%) with 13125.1 PJ /313 Mtoe (Figure 2) (Annex II, Table 11, 12, 13). The share of the transport sector within the RES consumption in 2020 is projected to be 13.0% while the contribution of RES in transport sectoral consumption is expected to reach 11.1 % in 2020. In 2010 the renewable energy generated from this sector was estimated 630.7 PJ (15.1 Mtoe) and in 2020 is projected to increase up to 1345.6 PJ (32.1 Mtoe) having a CAGR of 7.9% for 2010-2020 period and a yearly growth rate of 11.6% (Figure 12). In 2010 biodiesel is estimated to be the main contributor to the RES in transport with 70.8% (446.8 PJ / 10.7 Mtoe) followed by bioethanol with 19% (119.9 PJ / 2.86 Mtoe) and renewable electricity with 8.6 % (54.3 PJ / 1.3 Mtoe). In 2020 it is projected that biodiesel will still dominate the sector with 64.9% (873.4 PJ / 20.9 Mtoe). Bioethanol will follow biodiesel with a contribution of 22.7% (305.9 PJ / 7.3 Mtoe) together with renewable electricity with an increasing contribution up to 10 % (135 PJ / 3.2 Mtoe) (Figure 13). 13 Generated (PJ) 1500 1345,6 1000 630,7 500 171,0 0 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Figure 12. Renewable energy generation from transport, EU 27 RES share in transport sector 2010 RES share in transport sector 2020 19% 22,7% 70,8% 64,9% 1,4% 2,3% 8,6% 0% 10% 0% Bioethanol - bio ETBE Biodiesel Hydrogen from renewables Renewable electricity Others Bioethanol - bio ETBE Biodiesel Hydrogen from renewables Renewable electricity Others Figure 13. Breakdown of RES origin in the transport sector in 2010 (left) - 2020 (right), EU 27 The MS showing the highest RES share in transport sector for 2020 will be Finland with 20% followed by Sweden with 13.8% and Germany with 13.2%. The highest share increase in this sector will take place in Estonia with 10000%, followed by Denmark with 1010%, Bulgaria with 831%, Greece with 594%, Luxemburg 476% and Slovenia with 404% (Annex I, Figure 14). The additional RES in this sector will change from 459.7 PJ (11 Mtoe) in 2005-2010 to 714.9 PJ (17 Mtoe) in 2010-2020. During period 2011 – 2020 the annual additional RES generated will fluctuate between 24.6 PJ (0.6 Mtoe) and 140.4 PJ (3.4 Mtoe ) (Table 6). Table 6. Yearly additional renewable energy generation in the transport sector ( PJ), EU 27 Generation 2010 - 2005 459.7 2011 84.7 2012 58.4 2013 24.6 2014 48.7 2015 55.2 2016 57.4 2017 105.6 2018 70.8 2019 69.0 2020 140.4 2020-2010 714.9 14 Figure 14. Top MS in RES generation from transport sector, 2010 and 2020 In absolute terms, the leading MS in the penetration of RES in the transport sector in 2010 was Germany with 157 PJ (3.7 Mtoe) followed by France with 121.3 PJ (2.9 Mtoe), Spain with 64.4 PJ (1.5 Mtoe), Italy with nearly 50 PJ (~1.2 Mtoe) and UK with 47.7 PJ (1.1 Mtoe) (Figure 14). The contribution of these MS has reached almost 70% of the total RES generation from this sector In 2020 Germany will be still in the leading position with 257.1 PJ (6.1 Mtoe) together with UK with 187.2 PJ (4.5 Mtoe), France with 134.6 PJ (4 Mtoe), Spain with 170.1 PJ (3.2 Mtoe) and Italy with 121.4 PJ (2.9 Mtoe) with a total contribution of 65% to the total RES generation from this sector coming from these 5 countries (Figure 14). 4. Renewable energy technologies 4.1 Hydropower Hydropower installed capacity in 2010 was estimated 114 GW and in 2020 is projected to increase up to 127 GW having a CAGR of 12.1%. 200 1500 1305,3 Installed (GW) 127,5 108,3 1000 113,7 100 500 0 Generated (PJ) 1208,8 1223,1 0 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Installed 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Generated Figure 15. Hydropower RES installed capacity and generation, EU 27 15 The renewable energy generation from hydropower in 2005 and 2010 was estimated to be 1208.8 PJ (28.9 Mtoe) and 1223.1 PJ (29.2 Mtoe) respectively representing 28.9% and 21.1% of the total renewable energy generation. For 2020 the renewable energy generation from hydropower is projected to reach 1305.3 PJ (31.2 Mtoe) representing 12.6% of the total renewable energy generation (Figure 15) (Annex I, Figure 15). The contribution of hydropower electricity generation to the overall electricity consumption in 2020 will be 10.3% In 2010 the hydropower sector was presented as the highest contributor to the total renewable electricity installed capacity and electricity generation with 45.7% and 52.5% respectively (Figure 5 & 6). The additional hydropower installed capacity in 2010-2020 will increase by a factor of 2.5 compared to the additional installed capacity in 2005-2010. The additional generation from this technology in 20102020 will be 82.2 PJ (22.8 TWh), 5.7 times larger than the additional generation in 2005-2010 (Table 7). Table 7. Yearly additional in hydropower installed capacity and energy generation, EU 27 Installed (GW) Generated (PJ) 2010 - 2005 5.4 14.3 2011 0.9 3.7 2012 1.6 6.9 2013 0.9 7.5 2014 1.1 8.2 2015 1.9 5.8 2016 1.8 5.2 2017 1.8 13.5 2018 1.1 6.9 2019 1.8 12.6 2020 1.0 11.9 2020-2010 13.8 82.2 4.1.1 Leading countries The leading countries in hydropower installed capacity in 2010 were France with 21.4 GW (18.8 % of the hydropower installed capacity), Italy with 16.6 GW (14.6%), Sweden with 16.3 GW (14.3%), Spain 13.2 GW (11.6 5) and Austria with 8.2 GW (7.6%). These countries represent 66.6% of the total hydropower capacity installed in EU 27 and 30.4% of the contribution to the total RES electricity installed capacity. In 2020 the same Member States are projected to remain the leaders in hydropower installed capacity: France with 23.5 GW, Italy with 17.8 GW, Sweden with 16.3 GW, Spain with 13.9 GW and Portugal with 9.5 GW These countries will represent 63.5% of the total hydropower installed capacity projected (Figure 16, left). Figure 16. Top MS in hydropower electricity installed capacity (left) and generation (right), 2020 Top Member States in hydropower generation in 2010 were France with 248.5 PJ (69 TWh), Sweden with 245.8 PJ (68.3 TWh), Italy with 151.7 PJ (42.1 TWh), Austria with 138.8 PJ (38.5TWh) and Spain with 113.8 PJ (31.6 TWh). The hydropower electricity generation provided from these Member States 16 represents 73.5% of the electricity hydropower generation in EU 27. In 2020 France with 258.1 PJ (71.7 TWh -19.8 %), Sweden with 244.8 PJ (68 TWh -18.8 %), Italy with 151.2 PJ (42 TWh -11.6 %), Spain with 118.1 PJ (32.8 TWh - 9.1%) and Germany with 72 PJ (20 TWh - 5.5 %) will be the leading MS representing 64.7% of hydropower electricity generation (Figure 16, right). Slovenia and Austria will have the highest hydropower share within renewable electricity in 2020 with 83% and 80%, followed by Sweden with 69.9%, Slovakia with 67.5% and Romania with 63.0%. Bulgaria, France, Italy, Latvia and Finland will all have a hydropower renewable electricity share larger than 40% (Annex I, Figure 4). Austria will have in 2020 the highest hydropower share in the total RES generation with 38% followed by Slovenia with 32.6 %, Sweden with 29.4%, Slovakia with 27.1% and Romania with 23.3% (Annex I, Figure 16 & 17). 4.2 Geothermal According NREAPs the analysis of geothermal technology is conducted for the contribution of this technology in electricity and heating and cooling sectors. In 2010 the installed geothermal capacity was estimated 0.82 GW representing 0.3% of the total renewable energy installed capacity having a CAGR in 2010 – 2020 of 7.1 %. In 2020 the geothermal installed capacity will increase by a factor of 1.8 (Figure 17) maintaining the same share contribution to the total renewable energy installed capacity. 2,00 200 1,61 149,3 150 100 GW PJ 110,1 0,82 0,74 50,3 50 28,8 - 0,00 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 H&C Generated 2014 2015 2016 Total generated 2017 2018 2019 2020 Installed Figure 17. Geothermal installed capacity and energy generation, EU 27 The main contribution of this technology in the generation will be in renewable heating and cooling with an increase by a factor of 3.8 in 2020 compared to 2010 reaching 110.1 PJ (30.6 TWh) representing 74% of the total geothermal energy generation with a CAGR of 14.4% ( Figure 17). In 2010 the contribution of geothermal technology in renewable electricity generation accounted for almost 21.5 PJ (0.5 Mtoe / 6 TWh) and the increase in 2020 is projected to be with the same factor as the installed capacity reaching 39.2 PJ (0.94 Mtoe/10.0 TWh) having a CAGR in 2010-2020 period of 6.2% 17 The total generation of geothermal energy in 2020 will amount to 149.3 PJ (3.6 Mtoe / 41.5 TWh) increasing by a factor of 3 compared to 2010 representing 1.4% of the total RES generation showing a CAGR of 11.5% (Figure 17). The additional geothermal installed capacity in 2010-2020 will be about 11 times higher than the additional installed capacity in 2005-2010. The additional geothermal renewable electricity generation in 2010-2020 will be a factor of 10 higher than the additional electricity generation in 2005-2010; the additional geothermal renewable heating and cooling generation in 2020 will increase by a factor of 7.8 compared to the increase in 2005-2010 and the total additional geothermal energy generation will increase by a factor of 8 (Table 8). Table 8. Yearly additional in geothermal installed capacity and energy generation, EU 27 Installed (MW) Generated El. (PJ) Generated H&C(PJ) Tot.generated (PJ) 2010 - 2005 75 1.8 10.3 12.1 2011 28 0.6 4.1 4.7 2012 37 0.8 4.6 5.4 2013 46 1.0 6.0 7.0 2014 60 1.4 6.7 8.1 2015 55 1.2 6.1 7.3 2016 58 1.3 10.4 11.7 2017 63 1.3 10.3 11.6 2018 138 3.2 10.9 14.1 2019 98 2.2 10.0 12.2 2020 214 4.7 12.0 16.7 2020-2010 797 17.7 81.3 99.0 4.2.1 Leading countries The leading country in geothermal capacity in 2010 was Italy with 0.8 GW representing 92.4% of the total EU geothermal installed capacity. France, Portugal, Germany and Austria own the remaining contribution Figure 18. Top MS in geothermal electricity installed capacity (left) and energy generation (right), 2020 In 2020 Italy is projected to remain in the leading position with 0.92 GW representing 57% of the total geothermal installed capacity in EU followed by Germany (0.30 GW), Greece (0.12 GW), Portugal (0.08 GW) and Hungary (0.06 GW) which will all together represent 34% of the total installed capacity (Figure 18, left). Accoeding to NREAPs Italy was the leading country in 2010 with 20.3 PJ (5.6 TWh) electricity productions from geothermal presenting 94.2% of the total electricity produced by this source with a GAGR of 1.8%. Portugal, France and Germany followed Italy presenting 5.7% of the total electricity generation. In 2020 Italy and Germany will be the leaders of electricity production from this source with 24.3 PJ (6.8 TWh) and nearly 6 PJ (1.65 TWh) presenting 77.2% of the total electricity production from geothermal (Figure 18, right). The highest relative geothermal growth in 2020 is expected to be for Slovakia and Germany with a factor of 30 and 14 respectively. (Annex I, Figure 33) 18 4.3 Marine The installed capacity for marine energy in 2005 and 2010 is estimated to reach 0.24 GW and 0.25 GW respectively. In 2020 is projected that the marine energy installed capacity will reach 2.24 GW which will represent 0.5% of the renewable installed capacity in EU 27 showing an increase by 891% compared with 2010. By 2020 the marine energy generation will reach 23.4 PJ (6.5 TWh) which will represent 0.2 % of the total RES generation in that year with a CAGR of 29.2% (Figure 19). France was the only Member State with reported marine energy in 2005 and 2010. The marine energy generation in 2005 and 2010 was 1.9 PJ (535GWh) and 1.8 PJ (501GWh). 4 30 20 2,24 2 10 0 1,9 1,8 0,24 0,25 2005 2010 Generated (PJ) Installed (GW) 23,4 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Installed 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Generated Figure 19. Marine installed capacity and energy generation, EU 27 The additional installed capacity of the marine energy in 2010-2020 will be nearly 2 GW i.e., 400 times higher than the increase of this technology in 2005-2010. Marine energy generation in 2005-2010 has decreased by 0.1 PJ (34 GWh) while the additional generation in 2010-2020 is expected to reach 21.6 PJ (6 TWh) (Table 9). Table 9. Yearly additional marine installed capacity and energy generation, EU 27 Installed (MW) Generated (PJ) 2010 – 2005 5 -0.1 2011 0 0.0 2012 16 0.3 2013 20 0.3 2014 41 0.4 2015 40 0.4 2016 269 3.3 2017 300 3.6 2018 400 3.6 2019 431 4.6 2020 481 5.2 Seven countries, UK, France, Portugal Ireland, Spain, Netherland and Italy, reported and expected production in marine energy in 2020. The highest amount will be in the UK and France with 14.2 PJ (3950 GWh) and 4.1 PJ (1150 GWh) respectively; these two countries will represent the 78.4% of the total marine energy production in EU 27, UK alone accounting for the 60.7% (Figure 20). In 2020 UK, Ireland and Portugal will have the highest marine energy share within the renewable electricity, with 3.4%, 1.7% and 1.2 % (Annex I, Figure 4). UK and Ireland will also have the highest marine share within the total renewable sources (RES) in 2020 with 1.6% and 0.9 % respectively (Annex I, Figure 16 & 17). UK will have in 2020 the highest marine share in the overall installed capacity 19 2020-2010 1998 21.6 with 0.3%. UK and France will have in 2002 the highest share in generation with 0.34% and 0.1% and gross final energy consumption with 0.85% and 0.25%. Marine electricity generation potential, 2020 Marine electricity installed capacity, 2020 IE; 3,5% IE; 3,3% ES; 3,4% ES; 4,5% FR; 17,7% FR; 16,9% IT; 0,1% NL; 7,9% UK; 60,7% IT; 0,1% NL; 6% UK; 58% PT; 6,7% PT; 11,1% Figure 20. MS contribution in marine energy generation (left) and installed capacity (right) in 2020, EU 27 4.4 Solar Solar energy technologies in Europe are the fastest growing technologies with an increase of installed capacity in 2005-2010 period by a factor of 12 reaching 26 GW. In 2020 the increase will be with a factor of 3.5 up to 90 GW having a CAGR of 13.3% for 2010-2020 (Figure 21). The contribution of solar technology in installed capacity in 2010 has been 10.4% and in 2020 will reach 18.9%. 700 90 600 100 627,2 80 500 60 400 300 GW PJ 361,4 40 26 200 136,2 100 2,2 20 74,5 - 0 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Electricity Generated 2015 2016 Total generated 2017 2018 2019 2020 Installed Figure 21. Solar installed capacity and energy generation in EU27 The increase of solar energy generation will be 14 times for 2005-2010 period reaching 136.2 PJ (4.6 Mtoe or 37.8 TWh) and 5 times for 2010-2020 period reaching 627.2 PJ (15 Mtoe or 174.2 TWh) showing a CAGR for the same time span of 16.5% (Figure 21). 20 The contribution of solar in renewable electricity (solar electricity) and renewable heating and cooling (solar thermal) generation for 2010-2020 period will increase with the same factor, 4.3, having a CAGR of 17.1% and 15.7% respectively. The solar contribution in renewable electricity generation will increase in 2020 by a factor of 4.8 reaching 361.4 PJ (8.6 Mtoe / 100.4 TWh) with a yearly growth rate of 10%. The solar in renewable heating and cooling will reach in 2020 265.8 PJ (6.3 Mtoe or 73.8 TWh) with a yearly growth rate of 15.1% (Annex II, Table 19). Solar electricity contribution in renewable electricity generation was estimated to change from 3.2% in 2010 to 8.4% in 2020; the contribution of solar thermal in renewable heating and cooling generation in 2010 was estimated 2.2% and in 2020 is projected to reach 5.7%; the contribution of solar electricity to electricity consumption in 2020 is projected to reach 2.8% and the contribution of solar thermal in heating and cooling consumption will be 1.2%; the contribution of solar electricity and solar thermal is estimated to change from 1.3% and 1.1% respectively in 2010 to 3.5% and 2.6% respectively in 2020 (Figure 22). Solar contribution in RES mix, 2010 Solar contribution in RES mix, 2020 1,1% 2,6% 3,5% 1,3% Solar electricity Solar thermal Solar electricity Solar thermal Figure 22. Solar contribution in total RES generation, 2010 (left) – 2020 (right), EU 27 The yearly total solar additional installed capacity in 2010-2020 will be 2.7 times higher compared to the solar additional installed capacity in 2005-2010. The additional solar electricity and solar thermal energy generation for the same time span will increase by a factor of 4.1 and 6.2 respectively. The additional solar total energy generation referring to the same time periods will increase by a factor of 4.7 (Table 10). Table 10. Yearly additional solar installed capacity and energy generation, EU 27 Installed (GW) Generated El. (PJ) Generated H&C(PJ) Total Generated (PJ) 2010 – 2005 23.7 69.2 32.8 102.0 2011 7.6 38.0 8.7 46.7 2012 6.0 29.2 9.6 38.8 2013 5.9 26.3 14.6 40.9 2014 5.9 24.6 13.9 38.5 2015 6.1 24.8 18.1 42.9 2016 6.2 26.2 22.4 48.6 2017 6.3 26.7 24.7 51.4 2018 6.5 28.1 27.9 56.0 2019 6.7 30.3 29.4 59.7 2020 6.9 32.7 34.8 67.5 2020-2010 64.1 286.9 204.1 491.0 4.4.1 Solar Photovoltaic (PV) The solar photovoltaic installed capacity in 2020 is expected to reach 83.2 GW, which means that the contribution of this technology will represent 2.1% of the total theoretical solar capacity that can be 21 installed in EU 27 (3887GW)4 and 92% of the solar renewable electricity installed capacity. This technology will present for the 2010-2020 period a CAGR of 12.7% and a yearly growth rate in 2020 of 8.7% (Annex II, Table 19 & 21). The solar photovoltaic will reach in 2020 293 PJ (7 Mtoe / 81.4 TWh) remaining the main contributor in the solar renewable electricity installed capacity with 92% having a CAGR of 12.7%. This technology will remain in 2020 the main contributor in the solar renewable electricity generation with 81% with a CAGR of 15.1% and a yearly growth rate of 8.7% (Annex II, Table 19 & 20). The contribution of PV technology for the same year in overall solar-based energy production is projected to be 46.7%; The photovoltaic contribution to the total renewable energy generation in 2010 was 1.2% and for 2020 is projected to be 2.8%. 4.4.2 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Concentrated solar power will be the fastest growing technology among renewables. For period 2010 – 2020 the increase in CSP installed capacity will be by a factor of nearly 11 while the increase in renewable electricity generation by a factor of 27. In 2020 this technology will reach 6.8 MW in installed capacity representing 7.5% of the solar renewable electricity installed capacity with a CAGR for 20102020 period and a yearly growth rate of 14%. The renewable electricity production from this technology in 2020 will reach 68.4 PJ (1.6 Mtoe / 19 TWh) representing 19% of the solar renewable energy generation with a CAGR of 39% and a yearly growth rate 15.5% (Annex II, Table 19 & 20). The contribution of CSP in the total solar renewable energy production in 2020 will be 11%. The contribution of CSP in the total renewable energy generation in 2020 will account for 0.7%. 4.4.3 Leading countries The leading countries in solar installed capacity for 2010 were Germany, Spain, Italy, Czech Republic and France with 15.8 GW, 4.4 GW, 2.5 GW, 1.7 GW and 0.5 GW respectively representing almost 96% of the solar installed capacity in EU and 10% of the total RES installed capacity. In 2020 the leading countries in solar installed capacity are projected to be Germany, Spain, Italy, France and UK with respectively 51.8 GW, 12GW, 8.6GW, 5.4GW and 2.7GW (Figure 23, left). The capacity installed in these countries will represent 89% of the solar installed capacity and 16.9% of the total RES installed capacity in EU. In the solar renewable electricity generation leading countries in 2010 were Germany with 34.2 PJ (9.5TWh), Spain with 25.1 PJ (7TWh), Italy with 7.1 PJ (2TWh), France with 2.2 PJ (0.58TWh) and Czech Republic with 2.1 PJ (0.6TWh) representing 3.2% of the total RES electricity generation and 94.8% of the solar electricity generation in EU. For 2020 the leading countries in solar electricity generation will be Germany, Spain, Italy, France and Greece with 149 PJ (41.4 TWh), 96.2 PJ (26.7 TWh), 40.9 PJ (11.4 TWh), 24.8 PJ (6.9 TWh) and 13 PJ (3.6 TWh) respectively representing 7.5% of the total RES electricity and 3.1% of the total RES generation in EU (Figure 23, right). 4 Calculated based on the PVGIS and ECOFYS Study: 25,887 km2 area can be used for PV in the EU27 which means 3,887 GW PV installation 22 Figure 23. Top MS in solar electricity installed capacity (left) and generation (right), 2020 The highest solar share within the renewable electricity generation in 2020 will be found in Cyprus with 45.4 % followed by Spain and Germany with 19.8% and 19.1 %. Czech Republic, Greece and Italy will have respectively 15%, 13.2% and 11.5%. (Annex I, Figure 4) 4.5 Wind The share of wind to total renewable installed capacity in 2010 accounted for 34.4% with 86 GW and in 2020 will be 44.3% with 211 GW, having a 2010-2020 CAGR of 9.4 % and a yearly growth rate of 9% (Annex II, Table 19 & 21). In 2020 wind energy will represent 17.0% of the total renewable energy generation reaching 1758.8 PJ (42 Mtoe /488.6 TWh) from 597.3 PJ (14.3 Mtoe / 165.9 TWh) amounted in 2010 (Figure 24). The contribution of wind in renewable electricity generation will increase in 2020 up to 40.6% from 25.6% that was in 2010; The contribution of wind to the final electricity consumption in 2010 was with 5% and in 2020 is forecasted to be with 13.9% (Annex II, Table RES share electricity). 1758,8 300 1800 1600 200 211 1200 1000 800 597,3 600 100 253,3 86 Generated (PJ) Installed (GW) 1400 400 200 40 0 0 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Installed 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Generated Figure 24. Wind installed capacity and energy generation, EU 27 23 The additional wind installed capacity in 2010-2020 will be a factor of 2.8 larger than the additional installed capacity in 2005-2010. The additional energy generated for the same period will increase by a factor of 3.4 (Table 11). Table 11. Yearly additional wind installed capacity and energy generation, EU 27 Installed (GW) Generated (PJ) 2010 - 2005 45.1 344.0 2011 10.9 93.1 2012 11.5 93.9 2013 11.3 106.5 2014 11.5 109.0 2015 12.2 107.6 2016 12.7 115.6 2017 17.6 126.0 2018 9.4 137.7 2019 13.3 126.5 2020 14.8 145.6 2020-2010 125.3 1161.5 4.5.1 Onshore wind Onshore wind capacity will increase from 82.5 GW in 2010 to 168 GW in 2020 representing 33.2% and 35.5% of the total renewable installed capacity in EU 27. This technology will have a CAGR of 7.4% in 2010-2020 period and a yearly growth rate of 6.3% in 2020 (Annex II, Table 19). The onshore wind installed capacity will represent in 2020 80.1% of the wind installed capacity in EU 27. The electricity generation from this technology will reach in 2020 1267.3 PJ (30.3 Mtoe / 352 TWh) increasing by a factor of 2 compared to 2010 having a CAGR of 8.4% and a yearly growth rate of 6.9%. The contribution of offshore wind in the renewable electricity generation in 2020 will be 29.3% and in the total renewable energy generation 12.4%. Ireland will have in 2020 the highest onshore wind share within renewable electricity generation with 73.5%. Estonia and Greece will have a share higher than 50% and Spain, Cyprus, Lithuania and Portugal higher than 40%. The highest onshore wind share within RES installed capacity in 2020 will be also found in Ireland with 80.1% followed by Estonia with 60.8%. Spain, Cyprus, Lithuania and Poland will have a share higher than 50% (Annex I, Figure 4, 16, 17). 4.5.2 Offshore wind According to NREAPs offshore wind installed capacity in EU 27 is projected to change from 3 GW in 2010 to 42 GW in 2020 showing a CAGR of 32.1% and a 2020 yearly growth rate of 19.9%. This technology will represent in 2020 19.9% of the wind installed capacity and 8.8% of the total renewable installed capacity. The contribution of offshore wind energy in renewable electricity generation in 2020 will be 11.3% with 491.5 PJ (11.7 Mtoe / 136.5 TWh) having a CAGR of 31.8% for 2010-2020 period and a yearly growth rate of 20.1% in 2020. The contribution of offshore wind will represent in 2020 27.9% of the wind generation. The offshore wind contribution in the total renewable energy generation will change from 5.5% in 2010 up to 4.8% in 2020. The highest offshore wind share within the renewable electricity in 2010 is in Malta, the Netherlands and UK with 50 %, 37.8 % and 37.7 % Estonia and Belgium have 29.4 % and 26.8 %. Malta will still have in 2020 the highest offshore wind share within the renewable with 33.7%, the Netherlands, the UK and Denmark will have 24%, 18.3% and 9% (Annex I, Figure 4, 16, 17). 4.5.3 Leading countries The leading countries in wind installed capacity in 2010 were Germany (27.7 GW), Spain (20.7 GW), Italy (5.8 GW), France (5.5 GW) and UK (5.4 GW) representing 76.2% of the total wind installed 24 capacity in EU 27. In 2020 the same Member States are projected to be still in the leading positions with a contribution of 69.8% in the total wind installed capacity (Figure 25, left). In 2010 the leading countries have generated 442.8 PJ (123 TWh) of wind electricity (Germany 160.8 PJ or 44.7 TWh, Spain 152.4 PJ or 42.3 TWh, UK 50.9 PJ or 14.2 TWh ), France 41.9 PJ or 11.6TWh and Portugal 36.8 PJ (10.2 TWh) providing in total 19% of the total electricity generated. In 2020 this contribution will be 28.7% due to Germany with 376 PJ (104.4 TWh), UK with 281.8 PJ (78.2 TWh), Spain with 261.2 PJ (72.6 TWh), France with 208.4 PJ (57.9 TWh) and Netherland with 116.7 PJ (32.4 TWh) ( Figure 25, right) Germany and Spain will present the highest onshore wind energy production by 2020 with 261.6 PJ (72.7 TWh) and 254.6 PJ (70.7 TWh) representing 40.9% of the total onshore wind electricity generation. Together with France with nearly 143.6 PJ (40 TWh), UK with 122.9 PJ (34 TWh) and Italy with 64.8 PJ (18 TWh) these MS will represent 67 % of the total onshore wind energy (Annex I, Figure 29). Figure 25. Top MS in wind electricity installed capacity (left) and generation (right), 2020 4.6 Biomass Based on NREAPs biomass installed capacity in 2005 was 15.7GW and in 2010 was found to be 44.5% higher (22.7GW) representing 9.2% of the renewable installed capacity. The biomass installed capacity is projected to grow by 92.4% (43.6 GW) in 2020 compared to 2010 with a CAGR of 6.8% and a yearly growth rate of 5.8% (Figure 26). The contribution of biomass to the renewable installed capacity will remain almost constant to 9% in the 2010-2020 period. The contribution of biomass in the overall renewable energy generation in 2010 was found to be 52.2% with 3000.8 PJ (71.1 Mtoe / 833.5 TWh). This contribution in 2020 is projected to increase up to 4618.3 PJ (110.3 Mtoe / 1283 TWh) ( Figure 26) while the share will decrease to 45.3% having a CAGR of 4.4% for 2010-2020 period and a yearly growth rate in 2020 of 4.6% 25 5.000 4618,3 60 3775,2 4.000 43,6 3000,8 3.000 40 PJ GW 2590,1 2.000 20 22,7 1.000 15,7 - 0 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H&C Generated 2015 2016 2017 Total generated 2018 2019 2020 Installed Figure 26. Biomass installed capacity and energy generated, EU 27 The additional biomass installed capacity in 2010-2020 will be 3 times higher than the additional biomass installed capacity in 2005-2010 period. The additional biomass renewable energy generated in 2010-2020 will increase with the same factor compared to 2005-2010 (Table 12). Table 12. Yearly additional biomass installed capacity and energy generation, EU 27 Installed (GW) Generated el. (PJ) Generated H&C (PJ) Generated (PJ) 2010-2005 7.0 162.1 383.4 545.5 2011 1.4 40.2 86.2 126.4 2012 1.9 40.9 83.9 124.8 2013 2.8 45.5 98.1 143.5 2014 1.9 40.4 93.9 134.3 2015 1.9 35.2 111.8 147.0 2016 2.0 38.6 124.2 162.8 2017 2.0 45.8 129.4 175.2 2018 2.1 45.0 134.6 179.7 2019 2.5 49.8 169.8 219.6 2020 2.4 51.0 153.2 204.2 2020-2010 21.0 432.4 1185.1 1617.5 4.6.1 Biomass Heating The main contribution of biomass in renewable energy generation is found in heating and cooling sector. In 2020 biomass is projected to present the highest renewable energy contribution in this sector with 80.9% (3775.2 PJ / 90.2 Mtoe / 1048.7 TWh), a share which decline from the 2005 biomass share of 97% (2206.7 PJ /52.7 Mtoe /613 TWh) (Figure 26). In absolute terms the biomass energy generation in heating and cooling sector in 2020 will be 1.4 times higher than in 2010 even if the biomass share in the sector will be decreased by 10%. (Annex II, Table RES share in H&C) In 2020 this contribution will be 3775.2 PJ (90.2 Mtoe or 1048.7 TWh) representing 17.3% of the energy consumption in this sector and 29.7% of the energy consumption in the electricity sector (Figure 26) The contribution of biomass in renewable heating and cooling to the total renewable energy generation in 2010 was estimated to be 45% and in 2020 is projected to decrease up to 37% even that the absolute value is increased. The main contributor of biomass in renewable heating and cooling in 2010 was the solid biomass with 83.3% (2374 PJ or 61.2 Mtoe). Such a share is projected to decrease to 72.5% in 2020 while in absolute terms solid biomass in heating and cooling will increase to 3378.6 PJ (80.6 Mtoe). Bioliquids and biogas and bioliquids will follow this contribution with 4.5% (209.3 PJ /5 Mtoe /58 TWh) and 4.0% (187.4 PJ / 4.5 Mtoe / 52.1 TWh). 26 According to NREAPs the district heating plants in 2020 will have a contribution to the biomass in renewable heating and cooling equal to 19.7 % (745 PJ / 17.8 Mtoe / 207 TWh) increasing with a factor of 2.2 compared to 2010 contribution (343 PJ / 8.2 Mtoe / 95.3 TWh). The DH will have a CAGR in 2010-2020 period equal to 8.1% and a yearly growth rate in 2020 of 9.8%. The use of biomass in households for heating is expected to reach in 2020 the amount of 1479.4 PJ (35.5 Mtoe / 410 TWh) representing 39.2% of biomass in renewable heating and cooling sector. The additional electricity generation from biomass in 2010-2020 period will increase by a factor of 2.7 compared to the additional electricity generation in 2005-2010 period. France will be the leading MS in 2020 with the highest biomass in renewable energy generation from heating and cooling with 688.9 PJ (16.4 Mtoe). Germany will follow with 475.4 PJ (11.3 Mtoe) and together with Sweden with 397.4 PJ (9.5 Mtoe) these three countries will have a contribution to the total biomass energy generation in heating and cooling sector equal to 33.2%. 4.6.2 Biomass Electricity The contribution of biomass to renewable electricity generation in 2005 was 248.5 PJ (5.9 Mtoe or 69TWh) representing 14.3% of total renewable electricity generation and in 2010 this share was 17.6% with an absolute value of 410.6 PJ (9.8 Mtoe or 114 TWh) showing a CAGR of 10.6% for this period of time. This contribution will increase in 2020 up to 843.1 PJ (20.1 Mtoe or 234 TWh) with a share of 19.5%. In 2020 biomass electricity will contribute in overall renewable energy generation with 8.3% showing a CAGR of 7.5% and a yearly growth rate of 6.4%. Solid biomass was the main contributor in biomass electricity installed capacity in 2010 and is projected to remain still in the same position even in 2020 with an almost unchanged share equal to 5.8 % (27.8 GW) in renewable electricity installed capacity and 63.6% in biomass electricity installed capacity. Biogas and bioliquids are following the solid biomass showing an unchanged contribution to the renewable electricity installed capacity for the period 2010 – 2020 with 2.4% (11.2 GW) and 0.4% (1.7 GW) respectively ( Figure 27). Share in RE electricity installed capacity,2020 Share in RE electricity generation potential , 2020 1,1% 0,4% 2,4% 5,3% 13,1% 5,8% Solid biomass Biogas Bioliquids Solid biomass Biogas Bioliquids Figure 27. Biomass share in RES electricity installed capacity (left) and generation (right), 2020 27 Solid biomass will be still the main contributor in biomass electricity generated both in 2010 and 2020 with 67% (275.5 PJ / 6.6 Mtoe / 76.5 TWh) and 68% (565.5 PJ / 13.5 Mtoe / 157.1 TWh) respectively. Biogas will represent in 2020 28% (230.4 PJ / 5.5 Mtoe / 64 TWh) of the biomass electricity while bioliquids count for the remaining 5% (45.9 PJ / 1.1 Mtoe / 12.7 TWh). The contributions of solid biomass, biogas and bioliquids in renewable electricity generated potential in 2020 will reach 13.1%, 5.3% and 1.1% respectively (Figure 27). The highest biomass share within renewable electricity installed capacity in 2020 will be in Denmark with 41% followed by Hungary and Finland with 39% and 34% respectively. Belgium, Lithuania and Poland will all have a share higher than 25%. In 2020 the highest share of biomass within renewable electricity generation will be found in Hungary with 59% and Czech Republic with 52%. Belgium, Denmark, Lithuania, Luxemburg and Poland have projected to all have a share higher than 25% (Annex I, Figure 4). 4.6.3 Leading countries The leading countries in biomass installed capacity in 2010 were Germany with 6.3 GW (27.8% of the EU-27 biomass installed capacity), Sweden with 2.7 GW (11.8%), UK and Italy with 1.9 GW (8.5%) and Finland with 1.8 GW (7.9%), these 5 countries representing 64.5% of the total biomass installed capacity and 5.9% of the total RES installed capacity. In 2020 Germany will keep the leading position with 20.2% (8.8 GW) followed by UK with 4.2 GW (9.7%), Italy 3.8 GW (8.8%), France 3 GW (6.9%) and Finland with 2.9 GW (6.7%), these countries representing 52.3 % of the total biomass installed capacity and 4.8 % of the total RES installed capacity ( Figure 28, left). The Member States with the highest electricity generation from biomass in 2010 were Germany with 118 PJ (32.8 TWh), UK with 44.4 PJ (12.3 TWh), Sweden with 38.3 PJ (10.6 TWh), Italy with 31.1 PJ (8.6 TWh) and Finland with 29.1 PJ (8.0 TWh) representing 11.2% of the total electricity generation. In 2020 in the leading position will be Germany with 178 PJ (49.5 TWh) followed by UK with 94.2 PJ (26.1 TWh) , Italy with 67.6 PJ (18.7 TWh), France with 61.8 PJ (17.1 TWh) and Sweden with 60.3 PJ (16.7 TWh) having a contribution of 10.7% of the total electricity generation ( Figure 28, right). Figure 28. Top MS in biomass electricity installed capacity (left) and generation (right), 2020 28 A biomass share within the total RES generation in 2020, above 70% will be found in Latvia (77.7%) followed by Lithuania (76.5%), Estonia (73.9%) and Finland (71.9%). Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden will present in 2020 a share in the total RES generation greater than 50% (Annex I, Figure 16 & 17). 4.7 Biofuels Biofuels will generate in 2020 1210 PJ (28.9 Mtoe or 336.2 TWh) (Figure 29) of energy with an increase by a factor of 2 from 2010 having a CAGR of 7.7% in 2010-2020. The yearly average growth of biofuel will change from 13.9% in 2010 to 11.5% in 2020 being characterized by a not stable decrease. Biofuels in 2020 will provide an energy amount representing 11.7% of the total renewable energy generation. Contribution of biofuels to the overall gross final energy consumption will change from 1.3% in 2010 to 2.7% in 2020. The contribution to the energy that will be consumed in 2020 in the transport sector only is projected to be 10.3% overcoming the 10% target imposed by the RES Directive. Biodiesel is the main contributor at the biofuel energy generation with a contribution of 77.6% (446.8 PJ/10.7 Mtoe/124.1 TWh) in 2010 which will decrease up to 72.2% (8 873.4 PJ / 20.9 Mtoe / 242.6 TWh) in 2020. Bioethanol is following with an increase at the contribution in 2020 by a factor of 2.6 compared to 2010 reaching 25.3% (305.9 PJ / 7.3 Mtoe / 85 TWh) of the biofuel energy generation. Biodiesel provided the highest additional renewable energy in this sector in 2005-2010 352.2 PJ (8.4 Mtoe) followed by bioethanol with 97.4 PJ (2.3 Mtoe). 1400 1210,4 1200 1000 PJ 800 575,5 600 400 200 125,4 0 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Figure 29. Biofuel renewable energy generation, EU 27 According to NREAPs the advanced biofuels specified under Article 21.2 of the RES Directive, in 2010 represented 3.1% (17.6 PJ or 0.4 Mtoe) of the total biofuel energy generation increasing significantly from 2005 with a factor of 12. In 2020 these biofuels will reach 8.8% of the total biofuel energy generation increasing by a factor of 6 (106.8 PJ or 2.6 Mtoe) compared to 2010 (Figure 22). These biofuels will have in 2020 the highest share in biodiesel with 7.1% (61.7 PJ / 1.47 Mtoe) and in bioethanol with 9.2% (28.3 PJ / 0.7 Mtoe). The main contributor in biofuels under Art.21.2 in 2020 will be 29 biodiesel with a contribution of 58%, followed by bioethanol with 26% and the others that count for the remaining 16% (Figure 30, left). 16% 26% 29% 71% 58% Bioethanol Art.21.2 Biodiesel Art.21.2 Other Art.21.2 Bioethanol imported Biodiesel imported Figure 30. Share of biofuels Art.21.2 (left) and imported (right), 2020, EU 27 The contribution of imported biofuels in 2010 represented 32.9% (189.3 PJ or 4.5 Mtoe) of the total biofuel energy generated potential with an increase in absolute terms by a factor of 27 compared to 2005. The amount of biofuels that are expected to be imported in 2020 will be almost 460 PJ (11.0 Mtoe) presenting 37.9% of the total biofuels that will be used that year and 3.5% of the energy that will be consumed in the transport sector. Biodiesel will still remain the main contributor with a share of 71% in the total value of imported bioffuels and bioethanol will have 29% of share (Figure 30, right). In 2010-2020 the additional amount of energy generated by biofuel will increase by a factor of 1.4 compared to the increase from 2005 to 2010 reaching 634.9 PJ (15.1 Mtoe). Table 13. Yearly additional biofuel energy generation (PJ), EU 27 2005-2010 Biofuels 450.2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 80.0 42.7 29.8 45.5 46.2 49.5 96.5 61.7 57.7 125.2 2010-2020 634.9 In 2020 Germany will be the highest contributor in the total biofuel energy generation with 229.1 PJ (5.4 Mtoe). Together with UK with 4.2 Mtoe (176 PJ), France with 3.6 Mtoe (153 PJ) and Italy with 2.5 Mtoe (105 PJ) these MS will account for 54.8% of the total biofuel energy generation. The highest share in biofuels within the total renewable energy generation in 2020 will be found in Luxemburg with 56.4% followed by Malta with 23.2%, Ireland with 22.5% and UK with 21.6% (Annex I, Figure 16) 7. EU Deficits and Surpluses The RES Directive developed the “cooperation mechanism” which allows countries to transfer virtually their surpluses or deficits to each other. The NREAPs forecast that the EU 27 in 2020 will exceed the Renewable Energy Consumption Target with 0.75. From the review NREAPs analysis we can conclude that EU will reach a net surplus almost every year up to 2020. 30 The review analysis reveals that the RES energy production projected to be reached in 2020 in EU 27 will overcome the RES minimum EU 27 energy trajectory with 433.6 PJ (10.5 Mtoe) ( Figure 31). The estimated surplus in the NREAPs in 2020 is projected to be 5.8 Mtoe and the estimated deficit 51.1 PJ (1.2 Mtoe). The total surplus in EU 27 in 2020 is calculated to be 367 PJ (8.8 Mtoe) representing almost the same percentage in RES minimum energy trajectory and RES energy production ( Annex II, Table 31). 12000 10000 PJ 8000 6000 4000 2000 2012 2014 2016 RES min trajectory energy 2018 2020 RES energy production Figure 31. RES min trajectory and RES energy production development 20 15 10 % 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 BE BG CZ DK DE EST IE GR ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SLO SK FI SE UKEU27 . Figure 32. Percentage of surplus / deficit development in RES minimum trajectory energy by MS, 2020 According to NREAPs five MS – Estonia, Italy, Luxemburg, Romania and UK - will present RES deficit compared to the 2020 target. Italy has projected to have the largest deficit among MS with 47.2 PJ (1.1Mtoe) representing 5% of the country renewable energy target. The deficit for Luxemburg is projected to be 19.2% of the country renewable energy target. Germany has projected a domestic surplus in 2020 of around 128.5 PJ (3 Mtoe) which represent 8.6% of its renewable energy target. 31 Followed by France with almost 43.3 PJ (1 Mtoe) presenting 2.9% of the renewable energy target. Bulgaria will have the highest surplus percentage in its renewable energy target with 19.8%, followed by Hungary with 12.7%, Greece with 12.2% and Slovakia with 9% (Figure 32). 32 Review Highlights Gross Final Energy Consumption The review analysis reveals that in the updated report the GFEC upon both scenarios (REF and AEE) in 2005 is 4.9% (60 Mtoe) higher and in 2010 is 0.2% lower than in (JRC,2011). The gross final energy consumption in 2020 upon this analysis is slightly higher (+0.1%) for REF Scenario and slightly lower (- 0.2%) for AEE Scenario than what previously reported (Figure 33). The difference between two scenarios for 2020 was found to be +0.3% compared with (JRC, 2011) (Annex II, Table 5). 5 4,9 4,9 4 3 % 2 1 -0,2 -0,2 -0,2 0,1 0 2005 2010 2020 -1 REF Scenario AEE Scenario Figure 33. Percent changes of GFEC in REF and AEE Scenarios for 2005, 2010 and 2020 comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) Figure 34 shows how data reported for each sector have been updated. The main changes are found for 2005 (+6.3% for heating and cooling sector, 4.3% for electricity sector and 3.8% for the transport sector). The changes for the other years are minimal. 13 % 8 3 -2 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Heating & Cooling 2015 2016 2017 Electricity 2018 2019 2020 Transport Figure 34. Percent annual changes in GFEC in each sector comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) This analysis has updated also the gross final energy consumption for each Member States. It was found that most of the countries have gross final energy consumption somewhat lower than the amount 33 presented in the previous report when AEE Scenario is considered, while for most of the countries such a difference is below 1% with a few exceptions. Total Renewable Energy Sources (RES) The review analysis reveals a slightly change in the share of total RES in gross final energy consumption for 2010 and 2020 with +0.1% compare to (JRC, 2011). The same parameter for 2005 was found to have a decrease by 0.4%. (Annex II, Table 13). 6 % 4 2005 2010 0,8 2,5 1,1 4 1,6 0 4,6 2 2020 Installed Generated Figure 35. Percent annual changes in total RES installed capacity and generation, 2005, 2010 and 2020 comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) The installed capacity in total RES for 2005 and 2010 was found to be respectively 4.6% (7.4GW) and 4% (9.7 GW) higher than in (JRC, 2011) while for 2020 a 2.5% (11.7 GW) higher value was found. (Figure 35). (Annex II, Table 15). The percent annual changes in total RES generation reveals that for 2005, 2010 and 2002 the changes are respectively 1.6% (with 64.1 PJ), 1.1% (with 63.9 PJ) and 0.8% (with 85 PJ). 5 3 % 1 -1 -3 -5 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Heating & Cooling 2018 2019 Electricity 2020 Transport Figure 36. Percent annual changes in RES in the three consumption sectors comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) 34 The percent annual changes in the RES energy sectors found comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) are presented in figure 36. Transport sector presents negative changes for all the years except 20112013. Electricity sector presents positive changes for all the years. Heating and cooling sector present positive changes only for the reported year, for all the other years the change is negative. No changes larger than 3% in absolute value were found. The most significant changes comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) are found in total RES generation projected for 2020: Malta, Bulgaria, Greece, Ireland, Austria, France and Italy show a positive increase of 7%, 5.5%, 3.3%, 3.3%, 2.9%, 2.8% and 2.8% respectively while for Spain the change in total RES in 2020 is negative by 4.7% (Annex I, Figure 27). Percent annual changes in total RES installed capacity and generation in source breakdown are presented in Figure 37 and 38. 25 20 % 15 10 5 0 -5 2005 2010 2011 Hydropower 2012 2013 2014 Geothermal 2015 Solar 2016 2017 Marine 2018 2019 Wind power 2020 Biomass Figure 37. Percent annual changes in total RES installed capacity in source breakdown comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) 15 10 % 5 0 -5 -10 2005 2010 2011 2012 Hydropower Wind power 2013 2014 2015 Geothermal Heat pump 2016 2017 Solar Biomass 2018 2019 2020 Marine Biofuels Figure 38. Percent annual changes in total RES generation by source breakdown comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) 35 Electricity The review analysis reveals that renewable electricity generated in 2005 including hydropower was 1.9% higher compared to JRC, 2011. For 2010 and 2020 the differences in absolute values amounts for +25.2 PJ (1.1%) and -46.8 PJ (-1.1%) compared to JRC 2011. The yearly growth rate of total electricity generation for 2005-2010 is found to be 6.8% (6.9% at JRC 2011) and for 2010-2020 is projected to be 6.7% (6.6% at JRC 2011) (Annex II, Table 19). The percent changes for the baseline, reported and target year in RES electricity generation found comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) are presented in Figure 39. The main changes are found for RES electricity generation referring to marine energy with 8.2%. In these years solar energy presents slight negative changes and hydropower slight positive changes. 10 % 5 0 -5 2005 2010 Hydropower Solar 2020 Marine Wind power Biomass Geothermal Figure 39. Percent changes in RES electricity generation in source breakdown, 2005, 2010 and 2020 Heating and Cooling 6 % 4 2 0 -2 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Solar 2015 2016 Biomass 2017 2018 Geothermal 2019 2020 Heat pumps Figure 40. Percent annual changes in heat and cooling sector source breakdown comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) 36 The review analysis reveals that the share of RES in heating and cooling sector in 2005 was 0.6% lower compared to (JRC, 2011). This share is projected to have a slghtly increase in 2020 with +0.1% (Annex II, Table RES share in H&C). The analysis reveals that there are slightly changes in the total values in the heating and cooling sector comparing this report with (JRC, 2011). The main changes in 2005 and 2010 are found for solar and geothermal while in 2020 biomass presents the highest change (Figure 40). (Annex I, Figure 9) RES Transport The percent changes for this sector in source breakdown for years 2005, 2010 and 2020 found comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) are presented in figure 41. The most significant changes are found for biodiesel with -5.3% in 2005, -2.9% in 2010 and -3.6% in 2020 (Figure 34). 4 2 % 0 -2 -4 -6 2005 bioethanol 2010 Biodiesel Hydrogen 2020 Renewable electricity Others Figure 41. Percent annual changes in transport sector in source breakdown comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) The review analysis show that the RES shares in the transport sector in 2020 for Estonia will be 10000% (compared to 7603% at the JRC 2011 report), for Denmark will be 1010% (compared to 754% at the JRC 2011 report), for Bulgaria will be 831% (compared to 612% at the JRC 2011 report) and for Luxemburg will be 476% (compared to 481% at the JRC 2011 report) (Annex I, Figure ...). RES Technologies Hydropower Based on the review analysis the contribution of hydropower in total RES generation in 2005 was slightly higher with 0.3% compared with (JRC, 2011). For 2020 this contribution is projected to be change with +0.3% from (JRC, 2011). The contribution of hydropower at the RES electricity generation in 2010 was found to be 0.4% higher than the contribution presented at (JRC, 2011). The same change of 0.4% will be in 2020 for the contribution of hydropower electricity generation to the overall electricity consumption compared to (JRC, 2011). Hydropower contribution to the RES electricity installed capacity in 2005 and 2010 was found to be 7.3 % (7.4 GW) and 8.8% (9.2 GW) higher compared with the contribution estimated at the JRC 2011 report. For 2020 hydropower contribution to the RES installed capacity is projected to be 13.5% (15.2 37 GW) higher than what was projected at the previous analysis (JRC 2011 report). (Figure 42) (Annex I, Figure 5) The updated energy generation from hydropower in 2005, 2010 and 2020 is increased respectively with 27.9 PJ (2.4%), 18.3PJ (1.5%) and 40.2 PJ (3.2%) comparing this report with (JRC, 2011). This increase based on the updated analysis for all the other forecasting years was found to be from 1.9 to 3.1%. (Figure 43).( Annex I, Figure 2) 15 % 10 7,3 8,8 9,1 9,4 9,5 9,8 10,8 11,6 12,2 12,6 13,5 13,5 5 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0 Figure 42. Percent annual changes in hydropower electricity installed capacity found comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) 1,9 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,6 2,7 2,7 3,1 3,2 0 1,5 2 2,4 % 4 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Figure 43. Percent annual changes in hydropower energy generation found comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) The review analysis reveals that hydropower share in the total RES generation in 2020 for MS will have the following changes : for Austria -1.1% , for Slovenia +0.6%, for Sweden -0.2%, for Slovakia +0.2% and for Romania +0.2% compared with (JRC,2011) (Annex I, Figure 16 & 17). 38 Geothermal No relevant changes are found in geothermal installed capacity and geothermal generation comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) (Figure 44). 1 0,95 0,86 % 0,02 0 -0,20 2013 -0,31 -0,23 -0,18 -0,16 -0,13 2014 2015 2016 2017 -0,04 -0,05 2019 2020 -0,54 -1 2005 2010 2011 2012 2018 Figure 44.Percent annual changes in geothermal energy generation found comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) Marine The review analysis reveals no changes in marine energy installed capacity up to 2015 when comparing this report with (JRC, 2011). For 2020 a positive difference equals to 5.9% (125 MW) was found (Figure 45). In marine energy generation a slightly decrease with 0.3% for 2005 up to 2015 was found. For 2020 the change is positive with 8.2% (with 1.8 PJ) (Figure 46). 10 5,0 5,6 5,9 5,9 2018 2019 2020 5 % 2,8 0 -2,7 -5 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Figure 45. Percent annual changes in marine installed capacity found comparing this report with (JRC,2011) 39 10 8 8,5 8,2 2018 2019 2020 5,8 6 % 8,5 7,6 4 2 0 -0,3 -0,3 -0,3 -0,3 -0,3 -0,3 -0,3 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -2 2016 2017 Figure 46. Percent annual changes in marine energy generation found comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) Solar The comparison of this report with (JRC, 2011) reveals that the changes in total solar installed capacity will be negative for all the years up to 2020 except 2005 where no changes are found. In 2020 the total solar installed capacity is projected to be 11.9 PJ (3.3TWh) less than the total solar installed capacity estimated at JRC 2011 report (Figure 47). 2 1 % 0,0 0 -0,6 -1 -0,6 -0,6 -0,8 -0,9 -0,9 -1,0 -1,2 -1,3 -1,4 -1,5 -2 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Figure 47. Percent annual changes in solar installed capacity comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) The changes in the total energy generation from solar technology were found to be positive only for 2010 with 2.5% (3.2 PJ or 0.9 TWh) compared to JRC 2011 report. Negative changes were found for all the other years up to 2020 (Figure 48) (Annex I, Figure 2). 40 5 3 2,5 1 % 0,3 -0,3 -1 -0,4 -0,5 -0,6 -0,9 -1,1 -1,4 -1,7 -1,9 2019 2020 -2,5 -3 -5 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Figure 48. Percent annual changes in solar energy generation comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) The highest relative changes based on the review analysis are found for solar electricity in 2005 with 19.5% (-1.4 PJ or -0.4 TWh) and for solar thermal in 2010 with +10.1% (5.8 PJ or 1.6 TWh). Wind The review analysis comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) reveals that no changes were found for 2005 in wind contribution to the RES installed capacity. For 2010 this contribution was found to be 0.7% (0.6 GW) higher than the contribution reported at JRC 2011 report. For 2020 wind contribution is projected to be 1.2% (2.6 GW) less than the contribution estimated at the JRC 2011 report (Figure 49) (Annex II, Table 21). 2 1 0,7 0,2 0,3 0,2 % 0,0 0,1 0,0 0 -0,3 -0,5 -0,8 -1 -1,0 -1,2 -2 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Figure 49. Percent annual changes in wind installed capacity comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) The contribution of wind to the total RES generation in 2005 was found to be 1.4% (3.5 PJ) lower than the contribution reported previously while in 2010 it was 0.5% (3 PJ) higher. Based on the review analysis in 2020 wind energy contribution to the total RES generation is projected to be 1.4% (27.2 PJ) less compared to the contribution estimated at JRC 2011 report (Figure 50). 41 3 1 0,5 0,5 % 0,1 0,0 -0,4 -0,6 -1 -1,1 -1,4 -1,2 -1,2 -1,3 -1,5 -3 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Figure 50. Percent annual changes in wind contribution to the total RES generation comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) The onshore wind installed capacity for 2010 was found to be 1.85% higher compared with JRC 2011 report. The contribution of onshore wind in RES electricity generation in 2020 is projected to account for 29.1% (28.6% in JRC 2011 report). (Annex II, Table RES share electricity). The yearly growth rate of energy production from onshore wind in 2020 will be 6.9% instead of 5.7% estimated at JRC 2011 report. (Annex II, Table 19). Biomass No changes are found for the biomass share in RES generation in 2020 while for 2005 the share was found to be 1% less than the value reported at JRC 2011 report (Annex I, Figure 15). 0,3 0,6 0,7 0,6 0,6 0,7 0,5 0,7 0,7 0,7 0,9 0 0,0 % 1 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Figure 51. Percent annual changes in biomass installed capacity comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) 42 The review analysis comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) reveals not significant changes in total biomass installed capacity and generation (Figure 51 & 52). In absolute terms the biomass energy in heating and cooling sector in 2020 will increase by a factor of 1.4 compared to the factor 1.5 reported at JRC 2011. % 1 -0,05 -0,06 0 0,03 -0,01 0,03 -0,17 -0,16 -0,19 -0,29 -0,33 -0,46 -0,38 2019 2020 -1 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Figure 52. Percent annual changes in total biomass generation comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) Biofuel Based on the review analysis the highest relative change is found for year 2005 with -4% (-5.2 PJ) and the highest absolute change is found for 2020 with -33.5 PJ (-2.7%) (Figure 53). -1,9 -2,5 -2,7 -2,7 2013 -2,0 2012 -1,1 2011 -0,5 2,1 2010 0,5 2005 1,9 -2,4 0 -4,0 % 5 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -5 Figure 53. Percent annual changes in total biofuel generation comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) 43 List of Figures Figure 1. Gross Final Energy Consumption in 2005-2020 upon REF and AEE Scenario, EU 27 Figure 2. Share of electricity, heat and cooling and transport sectors in GFEC in 2010 (left) - 2020 (right), EU 27 Figure 3. Total RES installed capacity and energy generated, EU 27 - all renewables Figure 4. Share of electricity, heat and cooling and transport consumption sectors in total RES generated in 2010 (left) and 2020 (right), EU 27 Figure 5. Renewable electricity installed capacity in source breakdown, 2010(left) – 2020 (right), EU 27 Figure 6. Renewable electricity generation in source breakdown, 2010 (left) – 2020 (right), EU 27 Figure 7. Renewable electricity installed capacity and generation, EU 27 – all renewables Figure 8. Top MS in RES electricity installed capacity (left) and generation (right), 2020 –all renewables Figure 9. Renewable energy generation from heating and cooling, EU 27 Figure 10. Renewable energy in Heating & Cooling sector: source breakdown in 2010 (left) - 2020 (right), EU 27 Figure 11. Top MS in RES generation from heating and cooling, 2010(left) - 2020 (right) Figure 12. Renewable energy generation from transport, EU 27 Figure 13. Breakdown of RES origin in the transport sector in 2010 (left) - 2020 (right), EU 27 Figure 14. Top MS in RES generation from transport sector, 2010 and 2020 Figure 15. Hydropower RES installed capacity and generation, EU 27 Figure 16. Top MS in hydropower electricity installed capacity (left) and generation (right), 2020 Figure 17. Geothermal installed capacity and energy generation, EU 27 Figure 18. Top MS in geothermal electricity installed capacity (left) and energy generation (right), 2020 Figure 19. Marine installed capacity and energy generation, EU 27 Figure 20. MS contribution in marine energy generation (left) and installed capacity (right) in 2020, EU 27 Figure 21. Solar installed capacity and energy generation in EU27 Figure 22. Solar contribution in total RES generation, 2010 (left) – 2020 (right), EU 27 Figure 23. Top MS in solar electricity installed capacity (left) and generation (right), 2020 Figure 24. Wind installed capacity and energy generation, EU 27 Figure 25. Top MS in wind electricity installed capacity (left) and generation (right), 2020 Figure 26. Biomass installed capacity and energy generated, EU 27 Figure 27. Biomass share in RES electricity installed capacity (left) and generation (right), 2020 Figure 28. Top MS in biomass electricity installed capacity (left) and generation (right), 2020 Figure 29. Biofuel renewable energy generation, EU 27 Figure 30. Share of biofuels Art.21.2 (left) and imported (right), 2020, EU 27 Figure 31. RES min trajectory and RES energy production development Figure 32. Percentage of surplus / deficit development in RES minimum trajectory energy by MS, 2020 Figure 33. Percent changes of GFEC in REF and AEE Scenarios for 2005, 2010 and 2020 comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) Figure 34. Percent annual changes in GFEC in each sector comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) Figure 35. Percent annual changes in total RES installed capacity and generation, 2005, 2010 and 2020 comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) Figure 36. Percent annual changes in RES in the three consumption sectors comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) Figure 37. Percent annual changes in total RES installed capacity in source breakdown comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) Figure 38. Percent annual changes in total RES generation by source breakdown comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) Figure 39. Percent changes in RES electricity generation in source breakdown, 2005, 2010 and 2020 Figure 40. Percent annual changes in heat and cooling sector source breakdown comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) Figure 41. Percent annual changes in transport sector in source breakdown comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) Figure 42. Percent annual changes in hydropower electricity installed capacity found comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) 44 Figure 43. Percent annual changes in hydropower energy generation found comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) Figure 44.Percent annual changes in geothermal energy generation found comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) Figure 45. Percent annual changes in marine installed capacity found comparing this report with (JRC,2011) Figure 46. Percent annual changes in marine energy generation found comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) Figure 47. Percent annual changes in solar installed capacity comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) Figure 48. Percent annual changes in solar energy generation comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) Figure 49. Percent annual changes in wind installed capacity comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) Figure 50. Percent annual changes in wind contribution to the total RES generation comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) Figure 51. Percent annual changes in biomass installed capacity comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) Figure 52. Percent annual changes in total biomass generation comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) Figure 53. Percent annual changes in total biofuel generation comparing this report with (JRC, 2011) List of Tables Table 1. Yearly additional consumption in gross final energy consumption upon AEE Scenario (PJ), EU 27 Table 2. Yearly additional renewable energy installed capacity (GW), EU 27 Table 3. Yearly additional total renewable energy generation (PJ), EU 27 Table 4 Yearly additional renewable electricity generation (PJ), EU 27 Table 5. Yearly additional renewable energy in heating and cooling sector (PJ), EU 27 Table 6. Yearly additional renewable energy generation in transport sector (PJ), EU 27 Table 7. Yearly additional in hydropower installed capacity and energy generation, EU 27 Table 8. Yearly additional in geothermal installed capacity and energy generation, EU 27 Table 9. Yearly additional marine installed capacity and energy generation, EU 27 Table 10. Yearly additional solar installed capacity and energy generation, EU 27 Table 11. Yearly additional wind installed capacity and energy generation, EU 27 Table 12. Yearly additional biomass installed capacity and energy generation, EU 27 Table 13. Yearly additional biofuel energy generation (PJ), EU 27 45 Annex I Updated Figures of JRC, 2011 Report 46 Gross Final Energy Consumption in the EU27 60000 50000 PJ 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 -10000 2005 Hydro 2010 2011 Geothermal solar 2012 2013 marine 2014 wind 2015 2016 heat pump 2017 2018 biomass 2019 biofuel 2020 AEE Figure 2. Energy efficiency and RES in energy consumption in EU27 between 2005 and 2020 Source share in RES electricity in 2005, 2010 and 2020 2005 2010 2020 Hydro Geothermal Solar Marine Wind Biomass Figure 3. RES share in electricity in source breakdown 47 RES electricity generation in 2020 by MS Share in RES electricity in 2020 by MS-s BE BE BG BG CZ CZ DK DK DE DE EE EE IE IE EL EL ES ES FR FR IT IT CY CY LV LV LT LT LU LU HU MT HU NL MT AT NL PL AT PT PL RO PT SI RO SK SI FI SK SE FI UK SE 0 200 400 600 PJ 800 1000 UK 20% 40% Geothermal Solar 0% Hydro geothermal PV CSP Tide,Wave,Ocean Onshore Offshore Biomass Hydro 100% 80% 60% Tide,Wave, Ocean Wind Biomass Figure 4. RES electricity generation in MS - breakdown by source in 2020 Source share in RES electricity installed capacity EU 27 2010 (MW) Source share in RES electricity installed capacity EU 27 2020 (MW) 22675,6; 9,1% 43644,7; 9,2% 127495,6; 26,8% 113733,3; 45,7% 85502,2; 34,4% 1612,9; 0,3% 210762,6; 44,3% 90013,9; 18,9% 245,0; 0,1% 2243,0; 0,5% Hydro Geothermal Solar Tide, Wave Ocean 816,0; 0,3% 25912,4; 10,4% Wind Biomass Hydro Geothermal Solar Tide, Wave Ocean Wind Figure 5. RES share in electricity capacity in source breakdown 48 Biomass RES electricity capacity in 2020 RES electricity capacity in 2020 BE BE BG BG CZ CZ DK DK DE DE EE EE IE IE EL EL ES ES FR FR IT IT CY CY LV LV LT LT LU LU HU HU MT MT NL NL AT AT PL PL PT PT RO RO SLO SLO SK SK FI FI SWE SWE UK UK 0 20 Hydro Tide, Wave, Ocean 40 Geothermal Onshore 60 GW 80 100 120 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% % PV Offshore CSP Biomass Hydro CSP Offshore Geothermal Tide, Wave, Ocean Biomass PV Onshore Figure 6. RES electricity capacity in MS breakdown by sources in 2020 49 RES electricity additional capacity 2010-2020 RES electricity additional capacity 2005-2010 BE BG CZ DK DE EST IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK BE BG CZ DK DE EST IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 -5000 5000 15000 25000 Geothermal PV Onshore 45000 55000 MW MW Hydro 35000 Marine Biomass CSP Offshor Hydro Geothermal PV Onshore Marine Biomass CSP Figure 7. Additional RES electricity capacity growth between 2005-2010 and 2010-2020 50 Share in 2020 compared to 2010 RES share in electricity consumption BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK 0 20 40 % 2020 60 2010 80 2005 372 2300 0 100 200 300 400 500 % Figure 8. Share of RES in electricity consumption 51 Source share in RES heating and cooling in 2005, 2010 and 2020 2005 2010 2020 Geothermal Solar Biomass: Heat pumps Figure 9. RES in heating and cooling in source breakdown Unit Geothermal Solar Biomass: Heat pumps PJ PJ PJ PJ 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 18.5 28.9 2206.7 25.7 28.8 61.6 2590.1 168.1 32.9 70.3 2676.3 196.6 37.6 79.9 2760.2 225.9 43.6 94.5 2858.3 249.2 50.3 108.4 2952.1 274.6 56.5 126.4 3063.9 303.5 66.9 148.9 3188.1 336.9 77.2 173.6 3317.6 372.4 88.1 201.6 3452.2 412.9 98.1 231.0 3622.0 454.5 110.1 265.8 3775.2 508.8 52 RES heating and cooling in 2020 RES heating and cooling in 2020 BE BE BG BG CZ CZ DK DK DE DE EE EE IE IE EL EL ES ES FR FR IT IT CY CY LV LV LT LT LU LU HU HU MT MT NL NL AT AT PL PL PT PT RO RO SI SI SK SK FI FI SE SE UK UK 0% 20% Biomass 40% % Heat pumps 60% 80% 100% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 PJ Solar Geothermal Biomass Heat pumps Solar Geothermal Figure 10. RES in heating and cooling breakdown by source in MS, 2020 53 RES share in H&C consumption Share in 2020 compared to 2010 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SLO SK FI SE BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SLO SK FI SE UK 0 20 40 % 60 2020 80 2010 1200 0 100 200 2005 300 400 500 % Figure 11. Share of RES in heating and cooling consumption 54 RES share in transport sector 2010 8,6% 1,4% 0% 19% 70,8% Bioethanol - bio ETBE Biodiesel Hydrogen from renewables Renewable electricity Others RES share in transport sector 2020 2,3% 10% 22,7% 0% 64,9% Bioethanol - bio ETBE Biodiesel Hydrogen from renewables Renewable electricity Others Figure 12. RES share in transport sector in source breakdown 55 BE BE BG BG CY CY CZ CZ DE DE DK DK EE EE EL EL ES ES FI FI FR FR HU HU IE IE IT IT LT LT LU LU LV LV MT MT NL NL AT AT PL PL PT PT RO RO SE SE SI SI SK SK UK UK 0 200 400 600 800 1.000 0 50 Bioethanol Biodiesel 100 150 200 250 300 PJ PJ Other biofuels Electricity Biofuels 1st generation article 21.2 biofuels electricity Figure 13. RES use in transport sector with single and multiple counting 56 Share in 2020 compared to 2010 RES share in transport consumption BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SLO SK FI SE UK BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SLO SK FI SE UK 0 10 % 20 2020 30 2010 2005 831 1010 10000 0 200 400 % 600 800 Figure 14. RES share in transport consumption 57 RES mix EU27 RES mix EU27 2020 2020 2019 2019 2018 2018 2017 2017 2016 2016 2015 2015 2014 2014 2013 2013 2012 2012 2011 2011 2010 2010 2005 2005 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 0% PJ Hydro Wind Geothermal Heat pump Solar Biomass Marine Biofuel Hydro Wind 20% 40% Geothermal Heat pump 60% Solar Biomass 80% 100% Marine Biofuel Figure 15. RES mix in EU 27 in 2020 58 RES in 2010 1000 900 800 700 600 PJ 500 400 300 200 100 0 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE Hydro EL ES FR Geothermal IT Solar CY LV LT LU HU MT NL Marine Wind Heat pump AT Biomass PL PT RO SLO SK FI SE UK FI SE UK Biofuel RES in 2020 1800 1600 1400 1200 PJ 1000 800 600 400 200 0 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE Hydro EL ES FR Geothermal IT Solar CY LV Marine LT LU HU MT NL Wind Heat pump AT Biomass PL PT RO SLO SK Biofuel Figure 16. Composition of the different RES in the MS, 2010 and 2020 59 Share within RES in 2010 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE Hydro EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SLO SK FI geothermal Solar Marine wind Heat pump biomass SE UK biofuel Share within RES in 2020 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE Hydro EL ES FR IT Geothermal CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SLO SK FI Solar Marine Wind Heat pump Biomass SE UK Biofuel Figure 17. Relative share of the different RES in the total RES in the MS, 2010 and 2020 60 CAGR of RE generation in NREAP 120 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 % yearly growth rate 100 80 60 40 20 0 Hydro Geothermal Solar electricity thermal Marine Wind onshore offshore Heat pump Biomass Biofuel Total RES RE sources Figure 18. CAGR of the RES according to NREAPs for EU 27 CAGR of RE sources capacity in NREAP 140 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 % yearly growth rate 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Hydro Geothermal Solar PV CSP Marine Wind total onshore offshore Biomass Total RES RE sources Figure 19. CAGR of the RES electricity capacity according to the NREAPs for EU 27 61 Hydro ratio to the year 2010 Hydro resource development BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL* ES* FR* IT CY* LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT* RO SI SK FI SE UK BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SLO SK FI SE UK 0 50 100 150 2020 PJ 2010 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 % 2020/2010 2010=100% 2005 Figure 20. The hydro energy development between 2005 and 2010 18 16 12 10 8 6 4 2 UK EU27 FI SE SI SK PT RO AT PL MT NL LU HU LV LT IT CY ES FR IE EL DE EE CZ DK 0 BE BG % of the potential 14 Figure 21. Use of PV as percentage of the benchmark potential by 2020 62 PV share of low summer demand in 2020 120,0 100,0 80,0 60,0 40,0 20,0 SE UK SK FI RO SLO PL PT NL AT HU MT LV LT LU IT CY ES FR IE EL DE EE CZ DK BE BG 0,0 Figure 22. PV share of low summer demand in 2020 Relative PV growth to the year 2010 PV utilization development BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL* ES* FR* IT CY* LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT* RO SI SK FI SE UK BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK 0 50 2020 PJ 2010 100 150 3625 4783.28 4050.00 5600.00 0 2005 500 % 1000 1500 2020/2010 2010=100% Figure 23. Solar PV utilization development 63 Relative CSP growth to the year 2010 CSP utilization development BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL* ES* FR* IT CY* LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT* RO SI SK FI SE UK BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LAT LIT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SLO SK FI SE UK 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 to 2015 to 2012 18888.89 to 2014 to 2011 *there is no 2010 installation 0 1000 2000 PJ 2020 3000 4000 % 2010 2005 2020/2010 2010=100% Figure 24. CSP utilization development 70 NREAP 2010 NREAP 2020 60 50 PJ 40 30 20 10 SE UK FI SK RO SLO PL PT NL AT MT LU HU LIT LAT IT CY FR EL ES IE EE DK DE CZ BE BG 0 Figure 25. Growth of solar thermal energy on MS, NREAPs 2010-2020 64 50 45 40 35 % 30 25 20 15 10 5 Solar Thermal UK FI SE SK SI RO PL PT NL AT MT LU HU LT LV CY IT FR EL ES IE EE DE CZ DK BG BE 0 RES target from NREAP Figure 26. Share of RES and solar thermal energy to final energy consumption by 2020 5,0 ST share in % RES per 1000 capita (ktoe) 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK EU27 0,0 Figure 27. Solar thermal share (%) and RES (ktoe) per 1000 inhabitants to the GFEC by 2020 65 Solar thermal utilization development Relative solar thermal growth to 2010 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE GR ES* FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT* RO SI SK FI SE UK 0 20 40 60 80 0 500 1500 % PJ 2020 1000 2010 2005 2020/2010 2010=100% Figure 28. Solar thermal utilization development 66 Onshore wind utilization development Relative onshore wind growth to 2010 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE GR ES* FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT* RO SI SK FI SE UK 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 383200 9550 8000 0 500 1000 PJ 2020 2010 1500 2000 % 2005 2020/2010 2010=100% Figure 29. Onshore wind utilization development 67 3961000 1308000 1000000 competitive potential Onshore wind in NREAP 800000 GW 600000 400000 200000 UK FI SL PT AT MT* LU LV IT IR EL ES DE CZ DK EE BE BG 0 0,7 0,6 % of potential 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 EU 27 SE UK FI SK SI RO PT PL AT NL HU MT* LT LU LV CY IT FR ES IR DE CZ BE 0,0 Figure 30. Use of onshore wind as percentage of the environmental and commercial competitive benchmark potential by 2020 (EEA) 68 500 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 SE UK FI SI SK RO PT PL** NL AT HU MT* LU LV LT IT CY ES FR EL IE EE DE CZ DK BE 0 BG wind share of low winter demand % 450 Figure 31. Possible wind electricity generation in the % of low winter demand in 2020 in EU27 69 Relative offshore wind growth to 2010 Offshore wind utilization development BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES* FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT* RO SI SK FI SE UK BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK 0 50 100 150 200 11723,62 60733,33 800,00 0 500 1000 PJ 2020 2010 1500 2000 2500 3000 % 2005 2020/2010 2010=100% Figure 32. Offshore wind utilization development 70 Geothermal utilization development Relative geothermal growth to 2010 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES* FR* IT CY* LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT* RO SI SK FI SE UK 0 10 20 30 40 1447,53 3085,98 0 200 400 PJ 2020 2010 600 800 1000 % 2005 2020/2010 2010=100% Figure 33. Geothermal utilization development 71 Biomass ratio to the year 2010 Biomass resource development BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL* ES* FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT* RO SI SK FI SE UK BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LAT LIT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK 0 50 100 150 200 0 100 200 PJ 2020 300 400 500 % 2010 2005 2020/2010 2010=100% Figure 34. Final energy from biomass – development 72 Gross inland consumption and environmentally compatible biomass potential in 2020 1.600 1.400 1.200 PJ 1.000 800 600 400 200 0 BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE EL ES FI FR HU IE IT primary biomass consumption LT LU LV MT NL AT PL PT RO SE SI SK UK biomass potential (EEA ) Figure 35. Primary biomass consumption and biomass potential BE BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL EL ES FR IT CY LV ES FR IT CY LV LT LT LU HU MT NL AT PL LU HU MT* NL AT PL** PT PT RO SI SK FI SE UK RO SI SK FI SE UK 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 100 200 PJ Solid biomass Biogas Bioliquids 300 400 500 600 700 PJ CHP Figure 36. Bioelectricity production in 2020 solid biomass biogas bioliquids Households DH Figure 37. Biomass heating and cooling in 2020 73 Biofuels utilization development Relative biofuel growth to 2010 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK 0 50 100 150 200 2017 2016 2014 2013 0 100 PJ 2020 2010 200 300 400 500 600 % 2005 2020/2010 2010=100% Figure 38. Biofuel utilization development 74 BE BE BG BG CY CZ CZ DK DE DE DK EE EE EL IE ES EL FI ES FR FR HU IT IE CY IT LV LT LT LU LU LV HU MT MT* NL NL AT AT PL PL** PT RO PT SE RO SI SI SK SK UK FI 0 50 100 150 200 250 SE UK PJ 0 Bioethanol Biodiesel Other biofuels Figure 39. Biofuel used in transport sector Figure 20 40 60 80 100 % 40. Share of biofuels Art.21.2 in total biofuels 75 Biofuel use in transport Share of biofuel import BE BE BG BG CZ CZ DK DK DE DE EE EE IE IE EL EL ES ES FR FR IT IT CY CY LV LV LT LT LU LU HU HU MT* MT* NL NL AT AT PL** PL** PT PT RO RO SI SI SK SK FI FI SE SE UK UK 0 0 20 40 60 % 80 1.000 2.000 100 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000 ktoe Bioethanol Biodiesel Other Figure 41. Import share of total biofuel in transport 76 Marine resource development Marine ratio to the year 2010 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK 0 5 10 15 43700,00 0 500 PJ 2020 2010 1000 1500 % 2005 2020/2010 2010=100% Figure 42. Marine resource development 77 Relative heat pump growth to 2010 Heat pump utilization development BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES* FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT* RO SI SK FI SE UK BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK 0 50 100 150 0 1000 500 PJ 2020 2010 1500 2000 % 2005 2020/2010 2010=100% Figure 43. Heat pump utilization development 78 1400 surplus or deficit in PJ 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 2012 2014 2016 Total surplus 2018 Deficit 2020 EU level SurpSEs Figure 44. The RES surplus or deficit between 2010 and 2020 in EU 27 10000,0 100 2020 target 2020 target NREAP difference 5000,0 70 0,0 60 -5000,0 50 40 -10000,0 30 20 -15000,0 10 0 -20000,0 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE GR ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SLO SK FI SE UK EU 27 % of RES in the energy consumption 80 ktoe surplus/deficit 90 Figure 45. The indicative and NREAP share of the renewable energies in EU 27 by 2020 79 100 2020 target 90 2020 target NREAO difference 4,0 2,0 70 0,0 % surplus/deficit % of RES in the energy consumption 80 60 -2,0 50 40 -4,0 30 -6,0 20 -8,0 10 -10,0 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK EU 27 0 Figure 46. The indicative share of renewable energies and NREAP RES surplus or deficit in EU 27 by 2020 60 2005 2010 2020 2020 target 50 30 20 10 EU27 UK FI SE SI SK PT RO PL AT NL MT HU LI LU CY LAT IT FR EL ES IE EE DK DE CZ BE 0 BG % 40 Figure 47. The share of RES in the total consumption by 2020 in EU 27 80 Annex II Updated Tables of JRC, 2011 Report 81 Table 5. EU 27 total gross energy consumption in the REF and AEE scenario 2005 PJ RS scenario* AEE scenario 51175.3 51175.3 2010 Mtoe 1222.3 1222.3 PJ 50611.6 49631.8 2020 Mtoe 1208.8 1185.4 PJ 54951.1 49422.9 Mtoe 1312.5 1180.4 Table 6. Energy consumption data comparison between 2005 – 2020 and 2010 - 2020 MS BE BG CZ DK DE EST IE GR ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT* NL AT PL PT RO SLO SK FI SE UK EU27 Unit PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ Energy consumption difference between 2020-2005 77.9 17.8 120.0 -5.4 -1336.2 14.8 104.8 103.2 -126.7 -478.2 -342.6 14.5 23.2 49.3 -2.5 -11.1 22.4 -133.4 -11.8 301.4 -4.8 115.5 9.8 43.0 80.0 197.3 -594.5 -1752.5 Energy consumption difference between 2020-2010 24.7 14.2 107.3 0.9 -1105.6 10.9 84.8 71.0 96.8 -380.2 52.0 9.3 31.9 44.1 11.4 58.2 4.2 12.2 67.7 330.8 36.6 184.8 16.6 24.0 102.2 131.5 -251.2 -208.9 82 Table 7. Energy consumption in Heating and Cooling Sector MS BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT* NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK EU27 Unit PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ Heating and cooling consumption 2005 2010 2015 2020 912,9 912,9 912,9 912,9 190,2 188,1 190,0 194,2 738,7 745,5 752,1 782,1 337,9 336,7 332,0 320,4 4891,9 4672,3 4337,0 3899,5 67,6 65,8 66,0 66,1 230,9 216,0 212,2 206,5 349,8 361,9 362,5 405,0 1674,0 1497,1 1380,6 1294,9 2886,8 2761,9 2637,0 2512,1 2868,0 2469,2 2515,5 2561,7 22,2 20,1 21,2 22,1 109,1 94,2 101,5 109,4 108,1 101,2 108,9 112,4 49,8 51,7 51,7 53,1 510,5 439,5 449,7 413,5 0,0 1,9 2,6 3,0 1190,6 1030,5 1030,7 1046,2 552,9 502,7 510,9 536,0 1553,3 1356,5 1385,8 1452,8 331,9 305,1 322,6 343,2 786,2 661,0 735,7 766,9 95,9 83,6 86,0 85,0 258,0 250,0 240,0 235,0 584,9 586,6 628,0 640,6 552,2 604,9 657,6 710,2 2801,0 2512,1 2315,3 2156,2 24655,4 22828,9 22346,2 21841,0 Unit % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Relative 2005 = 100% 2010 2015 100 100 98,9 99,9 100,9 101,8 99,6 98,2 95,5 88,7 97,3 97,6 93,5 91,9 103,5 103,6 89,4 82,5 95,7 91,3 86,1 87,7 90,6 95,5 86,3 93,0 93,6 100,7 103,9 103,8 86,1 88,1 86,6 90,9 87,3 91,9 84,1 87,1 96,9 100,3 109,5 89,7 92,6 86,6 92,4 89,2 97,2 93,6 89,7 93,0 107,4 119,1 82,7 90,6 2020 100 102,1 105,9 94,8 79,7 97,8 89,4 115,8 77,4 87,0 89,3 99,4 100,2 103,9 106,6 81,0 87,9 96,9 93,5 103,4 97,5 88,6 91,1 109,5 128,6 77,0 88,6 83 Table 8. Electricity consumption in electricity MS BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT* NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK EU27 Unit PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ 2005 331,3 131,0 251,8 132,6 2169,3 30,9 98,0 229,7 1050,0 1897,3 1245,5 15,7 24,3 41,2 23,7 151,1 0,0 433,2 239,7 523,4 190,8 192,6 53,3 101,0 315,3 543,7 1344,0 11760,4 Electricity consumption 2010 2015 350,5 369,7 131,0 132,8 252,7 280,4 130,1 135,4 2174,0 2118,0 34,7 37,0 103,5 110,4 211,9 221,3 1051,1 1176,6 1919,6 1941,9 1285,5 1317,4 19,4 22,9 24,5 27,0 38,1 43,9 23,0 22,8 153,9 172,4 9,0 10,2 444,9 469,3 235,9 243,5 506,6 548,5 198,0 212,5 224,0 236,8 50,1 54,1 103,0 112,2 316,1 343,7 548,0 552,3 1327,2 1344,0 11866,4 12257,0 2020 398,8 131,8 302,8 135,9 2022,9 39,3 117,8 246,5 1338,1 1964,2 1349,3 26,5 31,2 49,9 23,8 185,0 11,3 489,1 267,0 611,3 232,2 265,2 56,2 120,0 365,9 556,6 1356,5 12695,1 Unit % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Relative 2005 = 100% 2010 2015 2020 105,8 111,6 120,4 100,0 101,3 100,6 100,4 111,4 120,3 98,2 102,1 102,6 100,2 97,6 93,3 112,3 119,8 127,1 105,6 112,6 120,2 92,3 96,3 107,3 100,1 112,1 127,4 101,2 102,3 103,5 103,2 105,8 108,3 123,8 146,5 169,3 100,5 111,2 128,4 92,5 106,4 121,1 96,8 95,9 100,4 101,8 114,1 122,4 102,7 98,4 96,8 103,8 116,3 94,0 102,0 100,3 100,8 98,8 100,9 108,3 101,6 104,8 111,4 122,9 101,7 111,2 109,0 101,6 100,0 104,2 112,9 111,4 116,8 121,7 137,7 105,5 118,8 116,1 102,4 100,9 107,9 84 Table 9. Energy consumption in transport MS BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT* NL AT PL* PT RO SI SK FI SE UK EU27 Unit PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ 2005 355,6 110,6 251,5 173,5 2244,2 31,2 163,8 275,0 1357,8 1887,4 1632,9 28,6 41,1 47,4 101,2 166,0 0,0 475,2 374,5 519,2 260,5 173,3 63,9 73,0 176,7 312,9 1746,1 13043,1 Transport consumption 2010 2015 2020 389,5 389,6 365,9 116,2 121,3 123,6 256,6 269,2 277,1 175,5 182,3 181,4 2192,0 2146,9 2022,3 33,0 36,3 39,1 191,1 215,7 240,6 273,3 261,8 265,3 1292,5 1348,5 1352,4 1913,4 1842,2 1762,6 1551,4 1486,9 1422,3 30,1 31,1 32,2 45,9 50,2 54,4 55,8 63,9 72,6 87,3 92,6 97,7 170,9 206,1 224,0 6,4 6,6 6,9 489,8 478,1 445,2 349,0 350,6 352,3 703,4 745,3 833,2 252,9 250,4 240,4 197,8 225,2 235,6 72,6 77,0 81,8 93,0 102,5 115,0 168,7 171,7 170,8 321,8 330,7 339,6 1695,0 1758,5 1749,2 13125,1 13241,2 13103,5 Unit % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Relative 2005 = 100% 2010 2015 2020 109,5 109,6 102,9 105,1 109,7 111,7 102,0 107,0 110,2 101,1 105,0 104,5 97,7 95,7 90,1 105,8 116,4 125,2 116,7 131,7 146,9 99,4 95,2 96,5 95,2 99,3 99,6 101,4 97,6 93,4 95,0 91,1 87,1 105,6 109,1 112,6 111,6 122,1 132,3 117,7 134,8 153,0 86,3 91,5 96,6 103,0 124,2 134,9 103,1 93,2 135,5 97,1 114,2 113,7 127,4 95,5 102,9 97,1 100,6 100,6 93,6 143,5 96,1 130,0 120,5 140,4 97,2 105,7 100,7 101,5 93,7 94,1 160,5 92,3 136,0 128,0 157,5 96,7 108,5 100,2 100,5 85 Table 10. Energy consumption in total BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT* NL AT PL* PT RO SI SK FI SE UK EU27 Unit PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ 2005 1599,7 431,8 1242,0 689,8 9591,6 129,7 487,3 906,4 4258,8 6978,9 5912,9 56,5 177,6 205,4 186,6 833,6 0,0 2249,1 1167,1 2595,8 819,9 1152,2 213,1 427,0 1099,5 1445,2 6317,9 51175,3 Total consumption 2010 2015 1652,9 1672,2 435,3 444,1 1254,7 1301,6 683,5 694,8 9361,0 8923,0 133,6 139,4 507,3 568,4 938,6 931,6 4035,3 4081,5 6881,0 6695,1 5518,2 5544,2 61,8 66,6 168,9 183,5 210,6 234,9 172,6 177,6 764,3 828,2 18,2 20,5 2103,5 2116,6 1087,6 1105,1 2566,5 2679,6 778,4 799,4 1082,8 1197,7 206,3 217,1 446,0 454,8 1077,3 1148,0 1511,0 1576,7 5974,6 5869,9 49631,8 49672,2 2020 1677,7 449,6 1362,0 684,4 8255,4 144,5 592,1 1009,6 4132,1 6500,8 5570,2 71,1 200,8 254,7 184,0 822,5 22,4 2115,7 1155,3 2897,3 815,0 1267,7 222,9 470,0 1179,4 1642,5 5723,4 49422,9 Unit % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Relative 2005 = 100% 2010 2015 2020 103,3 104,5 104,9 100,8 102,9 104,1 101,0 104,8 109,7 99,1 100,7 99,2 97,6 93,0 86,1 103,0 107,5 111,4 104,1 116,6 121,5 103,6 102,8 111,4 94,8 95,8 97,0 98,6 95,9 93,1 93,3 93,8 94,2 109,3 117,8 125,7 95,1 103,3 113,1 102,5 114,3 124,0 92,5 95,2 98,6 91,7 99,4 98,7 93,5 93,2 98,9 94,9 94,0 96,8 104,5 98,0 104,5 94,6 97,0 94,1 94,7 103,2 97,5 103,9 101,9 106,5 104,4 109,1 92,9 97,1 94,1 99,0 111,6 99,4 110,0 104,6 110,1 107,3 113,7 90,6 96,6 Table 11. Gross final energy consumption by sectoral breakdown in AEE scenario in EU-27 (PJ) Heating and cooling Electricity Transport * GFEC Heating and cooling Electricity Transport * GFEC 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 24655,4 11760,4 13043,1 51175,3 22828,9 11866,4 13125,1 49631,8 22762,1 11942,4 13137,3 49679,2 22659,5 12023,5 13180,9 49692,0 22566,9 12106,7 13195,4 49694,1 22449,8 12179,6 13217,9 49677,6 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 22346,2 12257,0 13241,2 49672,2 22234,3 12346,1 13226,4 49614,6 22124,8 12428,9 13204,1 49570,7 22036,2 12520,0 13170,8 49438,4 21942,4 12607,5 13166,1 49399,9 21841 12695 13104 49422,9 86 Table 12. RES contribution in EU by sectoral breakdown (PJ) RES Heating cooling RES Electricity RES Transport RES Transport adjusted for calculating the transport share TOTAL RES adjusted (without double counting) 2005 2279,8 1737,6 171,0 174,0 4135,6 2010 2848,7 2328,9 630,7 658,3 5744,8 2011 2976,1 2504,5 715,3 744,1 6126,1 2012 3103,5 2676,4 773,8 812,7 6482,9 2013 3245,5 2863,4 798,4 845,0 6836,1 2014 3385,4 3047,3 847,1 902,7 7206,6 RES Heating cooling RES Electricity RES Transport RES Transport adjusted for calculating the transport share TOTAL RES adjusted (without double counting) 2015 3550,2 3222,3 902,4 971,7 7581,4 2016 3740,9 3412,5 959,7 1045,2 8030,6 2017 3940,8 3629,5 1065,4 1171,9 8547,0 2018 4154,8 3854,0 1136,2 1274,1 9046,6 2019 4405,7 4080,1 1205,2 1373,8 9573,0 2020 4659,9 4331,2 1345,6 1549,3 10216,2 2010 12,5 19,6 4,94 11,5 2011 13,1 20,8 5,60 12,3 2012 13,7 22,1 6,08 12,9 2017 17,8 29,1 8,58 17,0 2018 18,8 30,6 9,23 18,0 Table 13. Total and sectoral RES share from 2005 to 2020 Heating and cooling Electricity Transport (as in Article 3(4)a (3 ) calculated) Total RES Share Heating and cooling Electricity Transport (as in Article 3(4)a (3 ) calculated) Total RES Share Unit % % % Unit % % % 2005 9,3 14,7 1,97 8,1 2015 15,9 26,2 7,16 15,1 2016 16,8 27,5 7,71 16,0 2013 14,4 23,7 6,35 13,6 2014 15,1 24,9 6,73 14,4 2019 20,0 32,1 9,90 19,2 2020 21,3 33,8 11,1 20,6 87 Table 14. RES generation in electricity Electricity RES generation MS BE BG CZ DK DE EST IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU* MT* NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK EU27 Unit PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ 2005 8,9 11,1 11,2 35,6 221,9 0,4 8,9 23,0 193,6 273,0 202,9 0,0 10,9 1,7 0,8 0,0 0,0 26,1 148,7 13,6 32,1 57,9 15,2 16,8 85,4 276,9 61,0 1737,6 2010 16,8 13,8 18,3 44,7 377,9 2,2 21,1 31,0 306,5 314,5 240,5 0,2 10,9 3,2 0,9 10,2 0,0 38,3 163,4 38,2 81,9 61,5 16,2 19,7 81,6 301,3 113,8 2328,9 Relative 2005 = 100% 2015 46,9 24,7 35,1 62,3 567,4 4,9 35,8 63,9 401,3 416,1 294,9 2,1 13,9 7,7 2,0 14,0 0,8 98,8 173,5 70,9 106,0 99,1 19,2 25,8 92,2 325,7 217,2 3222,3 2020 83,2 27,4 42,0 74,1 781,0 6,9 50,1 104,3 521,4 559,0 356,0 4,2 18,7 10,6 2,8 20,1 1,7 181,1 188,6 114,7 128,1 113,0 22,1 28,8 120,0 350,1 421,1 4331,2 Unit % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 2010 189,4 125,0 162,4 125,6 170,3 564,0 238,1 135,0 158,4 115,2 118,5 96942,9 100,2 190,7 119,0 2015 529,5 223,1 312,0 175,2 255,7 1267,0 403,4 278,1 207,3 152,4 145,4 845714,3 127,3 466,1 262,7 2020 939,1 247,4 374,1 208,4 351,9 1786,2 564,4 454,2 269,3 204,8 175,5 1678571,4 171,3 643,0 364,4 146,9 109,8 280,3 254,9 106,2 107,0 117,2 95,6 108,8 186,6 134,0 378,6 116,7 520,2 329,8 171,0 126,5 153,5 108,0 117,6 356,2 185,4 694,2 126,8 840,8 398,7 195,1 145,4 171,0 140,5 126,4 690,5 249,3 Table 15. EU 27 RES electricity total installed capacity in MW RES electricity installed capacity 2005 167677,28 2010 248884,46 2020 475772,64 2005-2010 Additional 81207,18 2010-2020 Additional 226888,18 Share of 2010 91,2 88 Table 16. RES generation in heating and cooling BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU* MT* NL AT PL* PT RO SI SK FI SE UK EU27 Unit PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ RES generation in H & C 2005 2010 2015 20,5 32,1 60,1 30,3 31,0 39,5 58,8 75,8 98,1 78,3 103,2 118,9 322,6 420,0 509,2 21,1 25,6 26,2 8,1 9,2 18,9 44,6 53,1 64,8 148,3 164,7 184,4 393,4 465,6 629,7 80,2 161,2 253,8 1,9 3,3 4,2 46,6 42,7 49,4 28,8 27,9 37,4 0,8 1,1 2,4 0,0 39,7 43,9 0,0 0,2 0,3 30,0 37,9 57,8 134,5 153,1 159,4 0,0 166,6 189,7 105,9 93,8 103,1 133,3 118,0 125,6 19,5 18,6 23,5 15,1 18,9 26,3 231,5 218,1 265,4 296,6 344,9 393,1 24,7 21,7 64,4 2275,6 2848,2 3549,6 2020 108,4 46,2 111,2 126,8 604,2 25,4 24,7 79,9 224,3 826,1 437,8 5,2 58,4 44,0 4,5 78,0 0,3 91,2 174,9 247,9 105,0 169,1 26,2 34,3 304,4 441,4 259,5 4659,3 GJ/capita 2020 9,90 6,15 10,56 22,80 7,39 18,96 5,52 7,06 4,86 12,70 7,22 6,16 26,21 13,56 8,82 7,81 0,62 5,48 20,81 6,49 9,87 7,90 12,76 6,32 56,63 46,88 4,15 9,27 Unit % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Relative 2005 = 100% 2010 2015 2020 156,2 292,4 527,6 102,3 130,2 152,3 128,9 166,8 189,1 131,9 152,0 162,0 130,2 157,8 187,3 121,2 124,0 120,2 114,0 233,7 306,2 119,0 145,2 179,0 111,1 124,4 151,3 118,3 160,1 210,0 201,0 316,4 545,7 170,8 222,0 271,8 91,6 105,9 125,3 96,8 129,9 152,8 130,1 290,8 550,0 126,4 113,8 192,5 118,5 303,9 130,0 88,5 88,6 95,7 125,2 94,2 116,3 87,8 125,2 97,3 94,3 120,6 173,7 114,6 132,6 260,5 156,0 99,1 126,9 134,4 227,1 131,5 148,8 1050,7 204,7 89 Table 17. RES generation in transport BE BG* CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY* LV LT LU HU MT* NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK EU27 Unit PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ 2005 0,7 0,1 0,4 0,4 87,4 0,2 0,1 0,1 10,3 22,8 13,3 0,0 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,2 0,0 0,3 8,6 2,3 0,5 1,7 0,2 0,3 0,8 12,1 7,9 171,0 RES generation in transport 2010 2015 2020 14,8 22,8 37,1 1,5 7,0 12,6 10,5 19,0 28,9 1,8 11,1 12,2 157,0 145,7 257,1 0,0 1,5 3,8 5,7 12,6 21,7 4,6 16,5 26,5 64,4 104,7 134,6 121,3 134,6 170,1 49,8 85,4 121,4 0,7 1,0 1,6 1,8 2,2 3,5 2,3 4,6 7,1 1,8 3,5 9,5 6,3 11,1 22,4 0,1 0,2 0,6 13,4 24,7 37,9 23,6 26,5 35,8 41,1 57,6 84,0 12,6 19,5 22,4 10,9 17,1 23,1 1,9 3,6 8,5 3,8 6,2 8,7 9,6 18,4 25,1 22,1 32,2 42,2 47,4 113,1 187,2 630,7 902,4 1345,6 GJ/capita 2020 0,61 0,55 0,66 0,91 0,57 0,39 0,58 0,62 0,78 0,79 0,70 0,59 0,64 0,65 0,37 0,50 0,38 0,65 0,74 0,69 0,87 0,74 0,43 0,71 0,73 0,76 0,60 0,67 Unit % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Relative 2005 = 100% 2010 2015 2020 2151,8 3317,6 5404,5 1200,0 5533,3 10066,7 2777,8 5055,6 7677,8 466,7 2955,6 3233,3 179,6 166,7 294,2 27,8 972,2 2500,0 5960,5 13197,4 22758,8 9166,7 32750,0 52833,3 627,8 1020,4 1312,7 532,7 591,0 746,7 374,2 641,5 911,6 600,0 1536,1 2066,7 3000,0 757,1 3072,2 4014,3 5320,0 1185,7 4708,3 10766,7 10700,0 3987,5 275,1 1816,7 2508,3 635,9 1176,9 1125,0 1150,0 183,3 602,1 368,8 7387,5 308,3 2548,1 3883,3 998,5 2210,3 1837,5 2200,0 266,7 1437,2 527,7 11312,5 417,6 3714,8 4458,3 1346,2 5197,4 2587,5 3000,0 350,0 2378,7 786,9 90 Table 18. RES breakdown by source in EU 27 from 2005 to 2020 Hydropower Geothermal Solar Solar electricity PV CSP Solar thermal Marine Wind onshore offshore Heat pump Biomass Biofuel Total RES Unit PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ 2005* 1208,8 38,2 34,2 5,3 5,3 0,0 28,9 1,9 253,3 240.7 6,9 25,7 2455,2 170,99 4188,4 2010 1223,1 50,3 136,2 74,5 72,0 2,5 61,6 1,8 597 564.8 31,2 168,1 3000,8 630,66 5808,2 2011 1226,8 55,0 182,9 112,6 102,7 9,8 70,3 1,8 690,4 644.1 44,2 196,6 3127,2 715,34 6196,0 2012 1233,7 60,5 221,6 141,7 124,2 17,5 79,9 2,1 784,3 713.3 68,1 225,9 3251,9 773,78 6553,7 2013 1241,2 67,5 262,5 168,0 143,8 24,2 94,5 2,4 890,8 780.2 106,7 249,2 3395,5 798,40 6907,3 2014 1249,3 75,6 301,0 192,6 164,0 29,4 108,4 2,7 999,7 852.3 142,8 274,6 3529,7 847,11 7279,8 Hydropower Geothermal Solar Solar electricity PV CSP Solar thermal Marine Wind onshore offshore Heat pump Biomass Biofuel Total RES Unit PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ 2015 1255,1 82,9 343,9 217,5 183,5 33,9 126,4 3,1 1107,3 923.2 178,6 303,5 3676,7 902,36 7674,8 2016 1260,3 94,6 392,5 243,6 204,2 39,4 148,9 6,4 1223,0 983.8 230,4 336,9 3839,5 959,72 8113,1 2017 1273,9 106,2 443,9 270,3 225,2 45,1 173,6 10,0 1349,0 1047.6 289,4 372,4 4014,8 1065,35 8635,6 2018 1280,7 120,4 499,9 298,4 247,0 51,4 201,6 13,6 1486,7 1123.0 348,4 412,9 4194,4 1136,19 9144,9 2019 1293,4 132,6 559,7 328,7 269,5 59,2 231,0 18,2 1613,3 1185.4 409,2 454,5 4414,1 1205,18 9690,9 2020 1305,3 149,3 627,2 361,4 293,0 68,4 265,8 23,4 1759 1267.3 491,5 508,8 4618,3 1345,56 10336,7 91 Table 19. Yearly growth rate of energy production from RES in EU 27 Unit % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Hydro Geothermal Solar Solar electricity PV CSP Solar thermal Marine Wind onshore offshore Heat pump Biomass Biofuel Total RES 2005 - 2010 1,2 31,8 298,4 1308,6 1260,9 113,4 -6,4 135,8 134,1 351,0 553,0 22,2 268,8 38,7 2011 0,3 9,4 34,3 51,0 42,6 290,7 14,0 0,2 15,6 14,0 41,8 16,9 4,2 13,4 6,7 2012 0,6 9,9 21,2 25,9 20,9 78,1 13,7 14,5 13,6 10,7 53,9 14,9 4,0 8,2 5,8 2013 0,6 11,6 18,4 18,5 15,8 38,1 18,2 13,6 13,6 9,4 56,7 10,3 4,4 3,2 5,4 2014 0,7 12,0 14,7 14,6 14,0 21,3 14,7 15,2 12,2 9,2 33,8 10,2 4,0 6,1 5,4 2015 0,5 9,7 14,3 12,9 11,9 15,4 16,7 14,9 10,8 8,3 25,1 10,5 4,2 6,5 5,4 2016 0,4 14,2 14,1 12,0 11,3 16,3 17,8 107,1 10,4 6,5 29,0 11,0 4,4 6,4 5,7 2017 1,1 12,3 13,1 10,9 10,3 14,4 16,6 55,8 10,3 6,5 25,6 10,5 4,6 11,0 6,4 2018 0,5 13,3 12,6 10,4 9,7 13,9 16,1 35,7 10,2 7,2 20,4 10,9 4,5 6,6 5,9 2019 1,0 10,2 11,9 10,2 9,1 15,1 14,6 33,7 8,5 5,5 17,5 10,1 5,2 6,1 6,0 2020 0,9 12,6 12,1 10,0 8,7 15,5 15,1 28,6 9,0 6,9 20,1 11,9 4,6 11,6 6,7 Table 20. RES generation CAGR to 2010 Hydro Geothermal Solar Solar electricity PV CSP thermal Marine Wind onshore offshore Heat pump Biomass Biofuel Total RES Unit % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 2010 to 2005 0,2 5,7 31,8 69,7 2011 0,3 9,4 34,3 51,0 2012 0,4 9,6 27,6 37,9 2013 0,5 10,3 24,5 31,1 2014 0,5 10,7 21,9 26,8 2015 0,5 10,5 20,4 23,9 2016 0,5 11,1 19,3 21,8 2017 0,6 11,3 18,4 20,2 2018 0,6 11,5 17,7 18,9 2019 0,6 11,4 17,0 17,9 2020 0,7 11,5 16,5 17,1 68,6 42,6 290,7 14,0 0,2 15,6 14,0 41,8 16,9 4,2 13,4 6,7 31,3 163,8 13,8 7,1 14,6 12,3 47,7 15,9 4,1 10,8 6,2 25,9 112,6 15,3 9,2 14,2 11,3 50,7 14,0 4,2 8,2 5,9 22,8 84,8 15,1 10,7 13,7 10,8 46,3 13,1 4,1 7,7 5,8 20,6 68,2 15,4 11,5 13,1 10,3 41,8 12,5 4,1 7,4 5,7 19,0 58,2 15,8 23,6 12,7 9,7 39,6 12,3 4,2 7,2 5,7 17,7 51,0 15,9 27,8 12,3 9,2 37,5 12,0 4,2 7,8 5,8 16,7 45,8 16,0 28,8 12,1 9,0 35,2 11,9 4,3 7,6 5,8 15,8 42,0 15,8 29,3 11,7 8,6 33,1 11,7 4,4 7,5 5,9 15,1 39,1 15,7 29,2 11,4 8,4 31,8 11,7 4,4 7,9 5,9 16,4 -1,3 18,7 18,5 35,2 45,5 4,1 29,8 6,8 92 Table 21. RES capacity CAGR in electricity to 2010 Hydro Geothermal Solar PV CSP Marine Wind total onshore offshore Biomass Total RES Unit % % % % % % % % % % % 2005 to 2010 1,0 1,9 63,5 62,6 0,4 16,2 15,7 30,5 7,6 8,2 2011 0,8 3,4 29,5 27,1 122,9 0,0 12,8 11,7 43,8 6,1 8,4 2012 1,1 3,9 23,5 21,7 81,6 3,2 12,3 10,8 50,0 6,9 8,1 2013 1,0 4,4 20,6 19,2 60,7 4,7 11,7 9,8 52,3 8,2 7,8 2014 1,0 4,9 18,6 17,6 48,2 7,1 11,2 9,2 47,7 7,8 7,5 2015 1,1 5,0 17,3 16,4 40,8 8,1 10,8 8,9 43,0 7,5 7,3 2016 1,2 5,1 16,2 15,4 36,1 17,1 10,5 8,4 40,6 7,3 7,2 2017 1,2 5,2 15,2 14,5 32,6 21,0 10,6 8,5 38,2 7,1 7,2 2018 1,2 6,0 14,5 13,8 30,0 23,6 9,9 7,8 35,7 6,9 6,9 2019 1,2 6,2 13,8 13,2 28,1 24,5 9,7 7,5 33,6 6,9 6,8 93 2020 1,1 7,1 13,3 12,7 26,7 24,8 9,4 7,4 32,1 6,8 6,7 Table 22. Comparative data for the hydro resources for the EU 27 ( RES electricity installed capacity in 2020) EUROSTAT 2008 NREAP 2010 Unit <1 1-10 > 10 Pumping Total <1 1-10 > 10 Pumping BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK EU27 MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW 9 39 151 5 561 5 23 44 267 445 437 50 191 141 4 842 0 20 114 1605 1604 2105 52 1890 753 0 2104 0 196 18823 11232 2319 11190 24 8 2 4 1 90 38 10 1511 760 0 37 0 454 74 31 61 117 25 31 101 65 2992 0 725 183 361 292 37 65 285 815 108 9604 37 7040 672 3634 6009 873 1542 2786 15436 1456 89682 1307 864 1147 6494 292 699 5347 4303 7544 115 1100 4285 1406 1029 : : 916 : 85 2744 40322 111 2120 1045 9 3507 5 239 18981 13104 4368 13732 0 1536 40 51 0 37 8219 929 4026 6362 1027 1632 3102 16352 1629 102278 7 49 162 0 507 6 18 29 242 441 444 0 24 0 2 3 0 0 455 102 0 63 118 25 30 140 640 3507,4 52,1 214 142 10 987 1,2 20 154 1680 1647 2250 0 1 26 36 9 0 2 726 178 410 324 37 55 280 765 3860 13866,3 52,7 1852 743 0 2558 0 196 3054 11304 19333 13886 0 1511 100,8 0 39 0 45 7053 672 4524 6026 916 1542 2750 15402 2800 96359,5 0 864 0 0 6494 0 0 700 5347 4800 2399 0 0 760 1100 0 0 0 4285 0 1036 0 0 0 0 43 0 27828 Total <1 112,2 2979 1047 10 10546 7,2 234 3937 18573 26221 18979 0 1536 886,8 1138 51 0 47 12519 952 5970 6413 1071 1622 3060 16350 7300 141561,2 9 50 194 0 564 6,6 18 39 268 483 650 0 27 0 3 6 0 2 497 142 0 109 120 60 30 140 1060 4477,9 NREAP 2020 1-10 > 10 65 272 147 10 1043 1,2 20 216 1917 1807 3250 0 1 40 41 22 0 21 794 238 750 620 57 122 280 765 3860 16359,2 65,7 2102 743 0 2702 0 196 4276 11676 21206 13900 0 1522 100,8 0 39 0 45 7707 772 8798 7000 1176 1630 2790 15412 2800 106658,5 Pumping Total W/Capita 0 864 0 0 7900 300 0 1580 8811 6800 2600 0 0 760 1300 0 0 0 4285 0 4302 0 0 0 0 43 0 39545 140 3288 1084 10 12209 307,8 234 6111 22672 30296 20400 0 1550 900,8 1344 67 0 68 13283 1152 13850 7729 1353 1812 3100 16360 7720 167040,6 12,8 438,1 102,9 1,8 149,3 229,7 52,2 540,3 491,2 465,7 336,5 0,0 695,2 277,6 2625,8 6,7 0,0 4,1 1580,5 30,2 1302,1 360,9 659,9 333,4 576,7 1737,5 123,5 332,4 94 Table 23. PV electricity and NREAP comparison PV output per kWp at optimum angles, urban areas Unit BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SLO SK FI SE UK kW/year kW/year kW/year kW/year kW/year kW/year kW/year kW/year kW/year kW/year kW/year kW/year kW/year kW/year kW/year kW/year kW/year kW/year kW/year kW/year kW/year kW/year kW/year kW/year kW/year kW/year kW/year Min. 866 1005,9 838,6 841,2 825,5 813,5 789,5 1200 968,2 858 772,9 1563,6 817,8 824,5 900,3 991,6 1572,1 864,7 853,6 833,6 1270,7 891,1 931,6 845,5 765,3 639,1 710 Av. 929,6 1217,8 945,6 945,1 936 867,7 908,6 1445 1470,7 1116,7 1326 1629,8 890,2 884,4 939,6 1104,7 1584,2 932,6 1026,9 937,2 1494 1132,7 1085,2 1020,7 837,9 862 920,2 Installed capacity MW Max. 1007,6 1388,4 1039,7 1054,1 1085,8 898,8 1066,7 1667 1664 1515,3 1624 1683,1 992,6 1011 967,5 1159,2 1599,2 1020,7 1169,6 979,7 1648,6 1278,3 1249,7 1116,8 895,5 1050,8 1121 350 9 1650 3 15784 0 0 184 4419 504 2505 6 0 1 27 0 4,05 92 90 1 156 0 12 60 0 5,3 50 NREAP 2010 PV generated Calculated electricity potential PJ GWh GWh GWh min max 1,09 304 303,1 352,67 0,04 12 9,05 12,5 2,08 578 1383,69 1715,47 0,01 2 2,52 3,16 34,20 9499 13030,11 17138,29 0,00 0 0 0 0,00 0 0 0 0,87 242 220,8 306,72 22,60 6279 3893,22 6691,1 2,21 613 432,44 763,69 7,08 1967 1932,15 4060,03 0,02 6,46 9,38 10,1 0,00 0 0 0 0,00 0 0,82 1,01 0,07 20 24,31 26,12 0,01 2 0 0 0,02 6,19 6,37 6,48 0,26 73 79,56 93,91 0,31 85 76,82 105,27 0,00 1 0,83 0,98 0,83 230 198,22 257,18 0,00 0 0 0 0,04 12 11,18 15 0,11 30 50,73 67,01 0,00 0 0 0 0,01 1,4 3,39 5,57 0,14 40 35,5 56,05 Installed capacity MW 1340 303 1695 6 51753 0 0 2200 7250 4860 8000 192 2 10 113 63 27,88 722 322 3 1000 260 139 300 0 8 2680 NREAP 2020 PV generated Calculated potential electricity PJ GWh GWh GWh min max 4,10 1139 1160,43 1350,22 1,57 435 304,8 420,69 6,21 1726 1421,43 1762,25 0,01 4 5,05 6,32 149,00 41389 42723,49 56193,5 0,00 0 0 0 0,00 0 0 0 10,41 2891 2640,03 3667,3 44,48 12356 8101,1 13923,01 21,29 5913 4170 7364,14 34,74 9650 6182,88 12992,11 1,11 309 300,21 323,16 0,01 4 1,64 1,99 0,05 15 8,24 10,11 0,30 84 101,74 109,33 0,29 81 62,47 73,03 0,15 42,66 43,83 44,58 2,05 570 624,35 736,96 1,10 306 274,85 376,63 0,01 3 2,5 2,94 5,31 1475 1270,66 1648,57 1,15 320 231,68 332,37 0,50 139 129,5 173,71 1,08 300 253,64 335,03 0,00 0 0 0 0,01 4 5,11 8,41 8,06 2240 1902,79 3004,21 95 Table 26. Wind capacity and electricity share of demand in 2020 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT* NL AT PL PT RO SLO SK FI SE UK EU 27 Unit NREAP installed capacity 2020 Onshore offshore total MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW 2320 1440 743 2621 35750 400 4094 7200 35000 19000 12000 300 236 500 131 750 14,58 6000 2578 5600 6800 4000 106 350 1600 4365 14890 168788.58 2000 0 0 1339 10000 250 555 300 750 6000 680 0 180 0 0 0 95 5178 0 500 75 0 0 0 900 182 12990 41974 4320 1440 743 3960 45750 650 4649 7500 35750 25000 12680 300 416 500 131 750 109,58 11178 2578 6100 6875 4000 106 350 2500 4547 27880 210762.58 Unit W/capita W/capita W/capita W/capita W/capita W/capita W/capita W/capita W/capita W/capita W/capita W/capita W/capita W/capita W/capita W/capita W/capita W/capita W/capita W/capita W/capita W/capita W/capita W/capita W/capita W/capita W/capita W/capita Onshore 211,85 191,88 71.57 471,35 437,30 298,46 913,66 636,61 758,35 292,09 197,93 357,25 105,85 154,10 255,94 75,11 34,91 360,23 306,75 146,60 639,28 186,80 51,70 64,39 297,66 463,59 238,25 335.85 W/capita in 2020 offshore total 182,63 0,00 0 240,80 122,32 186,54 123,86 26,53 16,25 92,24 11,22 0,00 80,73 0,00 0,00 0,00 227,48 310,88 0,00 13,09 7,05 0,00 0,00 0,00 167,43 19,33 207,84 83.52 394,5 191,9 71.57 712,1 559,6 485,0 1037,5 663,1 774,6 384,3 209,1 357,2 186,6 154,1 255,9 75,1 262,4 671,1 306,7 159,7 646,3 186,8 51,7 64,4 465,1 482,9 446,1 419.4 2010 Low winter demand GW 6,977 3,094 5,181 2,547 34,824 0,601 1,87 3,9 9,472 34,905 20,03 0,35 0,547 0,693 0,4 3,093 0,183 2,4 3,433 10,678 3,803 4,331 0,365 2,407 7,706 14,196 23,6 201,586 availability Share of demand % 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 55.73 41.89 12.91 139.93 118.24 97.34 223.75 173.08 339.69 64.46 56.97 77.14 68.45 64.94 29.48 21.82 53.89 419.18 67.59 51.41 162.70 83.12 26.14 13.09 29.20 28.83 106.32 94.10 96 Table 27. Comparative table for competitive wind resources for the EU-27 MS by 2020 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IR EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT* NL AT PL PT RO SL SK FI SE UK EU 27 Unit GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh On-shore 4274 2592 0 6.391 72664 974 10228 16125 70734 39900 18000 499 519 1250 239 1545 38 13372 4811 13160 14416 8400 191 560 3500 12000 34150 350532,32 NREAP 2020 Off-shore Total 6200 10474 0 2592 0 0 5.322 11713 31771 104435 563 1537 1742 11970 672 16797 1822 72556 18000 57900 2000 20000 0 499 391 910 0 1250 0 239 0 1545 216 254,69 19036 32408 0 4811 1500 14660 180 14596 0 8400 0 191 0 560 2500 6000 500 12500 44120 78270 136535,4 487067,69 Unit kWh/capita kWh/capita kWh/capita kWh/capita kWh/capita kWh/capita kWh/capita kWh/capita kWh/capita kWh/capita kWh/capita kWh/capita kWh/capita kWh/capita kWh/capita kWh/capita kWh/capita kWh/capita kWh/capita kWh/capita kWh/capita kWh/capita kWh/capita kWh/capita kWh/capita kWh/capita kWh/capita kWh/capita On-shore 390,3 345,4 0,0 1149,3 888,8 726,8 2282,6 1425,7 1532,6 613,4 296,9 594,2 232,8 385,3 466,9 154,7 91,8 802,8 572,4 344,5 1355,3 392,3 93,2 103,0 651,1 1274,5 546,4 697,5 kWh/capita Off-shore Total 566,1 956,4 0,0 345,4 0,0 0,0 957,1 2106,4 388,6 1277,5 420,1 1146,8 388,8 2671,4 59,4 1485,2 39,5 1572,1 276,7 890,1 33,0 329,9 0,0 594,2 175,4 408,1 0,0 385,3 0,0 466,9 0,0 154,7 518,1 609,9 1142,9 1945,7 0,0 572,4 39,3 383,8 16,9 1372,2 0,0 392,3 0,0 93,2 0,0 103,0 465,1 1116,2 53,1 1327,6 705,9 1252,3 271,7 969,1 97 Table 28. Indicator for the geothermal technology MS R&D Million EUR [30] BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK 2009 .. 0 0.732 2.126 13.95 2010 .. 0 .. .. 9.889 0.432 .. .. 7.141 2.014 0 .. .. .. .. 5 0 .. .. .. .. 0.102 0.371 .. .. .. .. .. .. 0.465 .. .. 4.906 0.498 .. .. 1.369 Unit PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ Geothermal energy in the NREAPs 2010 0,134 0,042 0,000 0,000 1,521 0 0 1,005 0,159 7,040 29,737 0,000 0,000 0,126 0,000 4,229 0,000 1,633 0,803 0,963 1,005 1,047 0,754 0,126 0,000 0,000 0,000 2020 0,343 0,377 0,694 0,000 34,676 0 0 4,785 1,478 22,644 36,860 0,000 0,000 0,209 0,000 16,423 0,000 10,844 1,682 7,453 2,804 3,349 0,837 3,876 0,000 0,000 0,000 PJ fraction of the R&D/capita 2010 2020 0.00 0.00 12.68 8.93 0.00 289.21 0.00 0.00 61.20 355.70 196.83 440.90 263.45 18.08 1749.55 37.89 5354.92 14930.71 1.37 42.17 0 0 Table 29. Indicator for the marine technology ( fraction for the R&D/capita) MS DK DE IE ES FR IT NL AT PT SE UK .. R&D Million EUR [30] 2009 2010 6,3 2,24 2,76 0,76 3,88 .. 0,21 0,12 2,19 .. .. 0,31 .. 0,24 .. 0,04 .. 1,12 8,64 9,02 35,82 Unit PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ Marine energy in the NREAPs 2010 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0,828 0 0,792 1,8 4,14 0 0,018 0 1,8504 0 0 0,004 1,573 0 0 0 14,22 PJ fraction of the R&D/capita 2010 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0,942 0 310,148 51,04 117,393 0 0 1,04 0 0 0 0 452,889 0 24,364 98 Table 31. RES surplus or deficit in MS Unit BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK EU 27 total Total surplus deficit PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 15,3 7,0 32,8 31,6 295,8 3,0 17,7 27,7 166,0 149,0 104,9 2,2 1,3 2,7 -1,0 10,8 0,0 24,6 52,1 47,2 38,7 0,0 1,8 9,7 6,9 54,8 10,7 1113,1 1114,1 -1,0 24,8 14,5 39,2 43,6 -867,8 3,9 22,3 39,3 162,5 195,0 109,8 3,0 0,5 6,7 -0,4 8,6 0,6 45,9 46,6 49,5 34,1 -1,3 2,9 12,7 8,9 62,0 13,2 80,7 81,1 -0,4 30,3 16,4 38,2 37,6 287,7 3,3 19,5 43,2 155,6 220,7 104,5 2,8 1,0 9,3 -0,7 8,6 0,6 57,9 45,8 47,6 34,2 0,6 4,3 15,2 10,6 69,0 33,6 1297,3 1298,2 -0,9 33,4 19,7 30,4 48,5 271,7 2,6 15,4 39,1 130,7 197,6 72,8 2,8 1,0 10,4 -1,3 18,8 0,8 67,2 33,5 41,3 30,4 1,3 4,3 14,6 12,9 60,8 56,9 1217,9 1219,5 -1,6 6,6 13,6 5,0 6,6 128,5 -0,1 0,2 28,3 33,0 43,3 -47,2 1,8 0,1 3,1 -3,9 12,6 0,2 35,5 14,8 10,4 0,4 -1,3 0,5 5,3 -0,3 20,6 -1,6 315,9 367,0 -51,1 target % trajectory 13 16 13 30 18 25 16 18 20 23 17 13 40 23 11 13 10 14 34 15 31 24 25 14 38 49 15 20,15 target % NREAP 13,4 19,0 13,4 31,0 19,6 24,9 16,0 20,8 20,8 23,7 16,2 15,5 40,1 24,2 8,9 14,5 10,8 15,7 33,6 15,4 31,0 23,9 25,2 15,1 38,0 50,3 15,0 20,75 difference 0,4 3,0 0,4 1,0 1,6 -0,1 0,0 2,8 0,8 0,7 -0,8 2,5 0,1 1,2 -2,1 1,5 0,8 1,7 -0,4 0,4 0,0 -0,1 0,2 1,1 0,0 1,3 0,0 0,6 RES in EU 27 in 2005, 2010 and 2020 Hydro Geothermal Solar total Solar electricity PV CSP Solar thermal Marine Wind total Onshore Offshore Heat pump Biomass Biofuel Total RES 2005 RES generation % of total RES (PJ) 1208,8 28,9 38,2 0,9 34,2 0,8 5,3 0,1 5,3 0,1 0 0,0 28,9 0,7 1,9 0,0 253,3 6,0 240,6 5,7 6,9 0,2 25,7 0,6 2455,2 58,6 170,99 4,1 4188,4 100,0 2010 RES generation (PJ) 1223,1 50,3 136,2 74,5 72,0 2,52 61,6 1,8 597,3 563,2 31,2 168,1 3000,8 630,66 5808,2 % of total RES 21,1 0,9 2,3 1,3 1,2 0,0 1,1 0,0 10,3 9,7 0,5 2,9 51,7 10,9 100,0 2020 RES generation % of total RES (PJ) 1305,3 12,6 149,3 1,4 627,2 6,1 361,4 3,5 293,0 2,8 68,4 0,7 265,8 2,6 23,4 0,2 1758,8 17,0 1261,9 12,2 491,5 4,8 508,8 4,9 4618,3 44,7 1345,56 13,0 10336,7 100,0 99 RES share in Heating and Cooling sector in 2005, 2010 and 2020 2005 RES H&C generation (PJ) Geothermal Solar thermal Biomass Heat pump Total RES H&C Total RES Total H&C 2010 % of RES H&C 18,5 28,9 2206,7 25,7 2279,8 4188,4 24.655 total RES 0,81 1,27 96,79 1,13 100,0 0,44 0,69 52,69 0,61 54,43 H&C 0,07 0,12 8,95 0,10 9,25 RES H&C generation (PJ) 2020 % of RES H&C 28,8 61,6 2590,1 168,1 2848,7 5808,2 22.829 1,01 2,16 90,92 5,90 100,0 total RES 0,5 1,1 44,6 2,9 49,0 H&C 0,13 0,27 11,35 0,74 12,48 RES H&C generation PJ % of RES H&C 110,1 265,8 3775,2 508,8 4659,9 10336,7 21.841 total RES 2,36 5,70 81,01 10,92 100,0 1,1 2,6 36,5 4,9 45,1 H&C 0,5 1,2 17,3 2,3 21,3 RES share in Electricity sector in 2005, 2010 and 2020 2005 RES electricity generation PJ TWh Hydro Geothermal Solar electricity PV CSP Marine Wind total Onshore Offshore Biomass Total RES el. Total RES Total electricity 1208,8 19,7 5,3 5,3 0 1,93 253,3 240,6 6,92 248,5 1737,6 4188,4 11.760 335,8 5,48 1,47 1,47 0 0,5 70,4 66,8 1,92 69,0 482,7 2010 % of RES electricity 69,6 1,1 0,3 0,3 0,0 0,1 14,6 13,8 0,4 14,3 100,0 Total RES 28,9 0,5 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,0 6,0 5,7 0,2 5,9 41,5 Electricity 10,3 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2,2 2,0 0,1 2,1 14,8 RES electricity generation PJ TWh 1223,1 21,5 74,5 72,0 2,52 1,80 597,3 563,2 31,19 410,6 2328,9 5808,2 11.866 339,7 5,98 20,70 20,00 0,7 0,5 165,9 156,4 8,66 114,1 646,9 2020 % of RES electricity 52,52 0,9 3,2 3,1 0,1 0,1 25,6 24,2 1,3 17,6 100,0 Total RES 21,1 0,4 1,3 1,2 0,0 0,0 10,3 9,7 0,5 7,1 40,1 Electricity 10,3 0,2 0,6 0,6 0,0 0,0 5,0 4,7 0,3 3,5 19,6 RES electricity generation PJ TWh 1305,3 39,2 361,4 293,0 68,4 23,42 1758,8 1261,9 491,53 843,1 4331,2 10336,7 12.695 362,6 10,89 100,38 81,40 18,989 6,5 488,6 350,5 136,54 234,2 1203,1 % of RES electricity 30,1 0,9 8,3 6,8 1,6 0,5 40,6 29,1 11,3 19,5 100,0 Total RES 12,6 0,4 3,5 2,8 0,7 0,2 17,0 12,2 4,8 8,2 41,9 Electricity 10,3 0,3 2,8 2,3 0,5 0,2 13,9 9,9 3,9 6,6 34,1 RES share in Transport sector in 2005, 2010 and 2020 2005 RES transport generation PJ Bioethanol - bio ETBE Biodiesel Hydrogen from renewables Renewable electrifcity Others Total RES transport Total RES Total transport Total RES transport* 22,5 94,5 0 45,5 8,3 170,8 4188,4 13043,1 174,0 2010 % of RES transport 13,2 55,3 0 26,6 4,9 100 Total RES 0,54 2,26 0,00 1,09 0,20 4,08 Transport 0,17 0,72 0,00 0,35 0,06 1,31 RES transport generation PJ 119,9 446,8 0 54,3 8,8 629,9 5808,2 13125,1 658,3 2020 % of RES transport 19,0 70,8 0 8,6 1,4 100 Total RES 2,06 7,69 0,00 0,94 0,15 10,84 Transport 0,91 3,40 0,00 0,41 0,07 4,80 RES transport generation PJ 305,9 873,4 0,1 135,0 31,1 1345,5 10336,7 13103,5 1549,3 % of RES transport 22,7 64,9 0,007 10,0 2,3 100 Total RES 3,0 8,4 0,0 1,3 0,3 13,0 Transport 2,33 6,67 0,00 1,03 0,24 10,27 *adjusted to the target Total RES generation Unit hydro geothermal solar PV CSP Thermal marine wind Onshore Offshore heat pump biomass biofuel Total RES PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1208,8 38,2 34,2 5,3 0,0 28,9 1,9 253,3 240,6 6,9 25,7 2455,2 171,0 4188,4 1223,1 50,3 136,2 72,0 2,5 61,6 1,8 597,3 563,2 31,2 168,1 3000,8 630,7 5808,2 1226,8 55,0 182,9 102,7 9,8 70,3 1,8 690,4 642,1 44,2 196,6 3127,2 715,3 6196,0 1233,7 60,5 221,6 124,2 17,5 79,9 2,1 784,3 710,9 68,1 225,9 3251,9 773,8 6553,7 1241,2 67,5 262,5 143,8 24,2 94,5 2,4 890,8 777,5 106,7 249,2 3395,5 798,4 6907,3 1249,3 75,6 301,0 164,0 29,4 108,4 2,7 999,7 849,1 142,8 274,6 3529,7 847,1 7279,8 1255,1 82,9 343,9 183,5 33,9 126,4 3,1 1107,3 919,7 178,6 303,5 3676,7 902,4 7674,8 1260,3 94,6 392,5 204,2 39,4 148,9 6,4 1223,0 979,9 230,4 336,9 3839,5 959,7 8113,1 1273,9 106,2 443,9 225,2 45,1 173,6 10,0 1349,0 1043,3 289,4 372,4 4014,8 1065,4 8635,6 1280,7 120,4 499,9 247,0 51,4 201,6 13,6 1486,7 1118,3 348,4 412,9 4194,4 1136,2 9144,9 1293,4 132,6 559,7 269,5 59,2 231,0 18,2 1613,3 1180,4 409,2 454,5 4414,1 1205,2 9690,9 1305,3 149,3 627,2 293,0 68,4 265,8 23,4 1758,8 1261,9 491,5 508,8 4618,3 1345,6 10336,7 CAGR 2020/2010 0,65 11,49 16,50 15,07 39,10 15,74 29,23 11,40 8,40 31,75 11,71 4,41 7,87 5,93 101 Abbreviations RES - Renewable Energy Sources NREAP – National Renewable Energy Action Plan GFEC – Gross Final Energy Consumption REF - Reference Scenario AEE – Additional Energy Efficiency Scenario MS - Member States CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate H&C – Heating and Cooling Units General conversion factors for energy 1 Mtoe = 41.868 PJ = 11.63 TWh 1 ktoe = 41.868 TJ = 11.63 GWh 1 PJ = 0.278 TWh = 0.024 Mtoe 1 TWh = 3.6 PJ = 0.086 Mtoe 1 TJ = 277.8 MWh Glossary Biomass The biodegradable fraction of products, waste and residues from biological origin from agriculture (including vegetal and animal substances), forestry and related industries including fisheries and aquaculture, as well as the biodegradable fraction of industrial and municipal waste; Bioliquids Liquid fuel and blending components produced from biomass used for energy purposes other than for transport, including electricity and heating and cooling; Biofuels Liquid or gaseous fuel for transport produced from biomass. Biodiesel Liquid biofuel suitable as a diesel fuel substitute or diesel fuel additive. Biodiesel fules are typically made from oils such as soybeans, rapeseed or sunflowers; or from animal tallow. Biodiesel can also be made from hydrocarbons derived from agricultural products such as rice hulls. Compound annual growth rate The year-over-year growth rate applied during a multiple-year-period. The formula for calculating CAGR is (Current Value/ Base Value)^(1/# of years) - 1. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) A solar energy conversion system characterized by the optical concentration of solar rays through an arrangement of mirrors to generate a high temperature working fluid. Also see solar trough, solar power tower, or solar dish. Concentrating solar power (but not solar thermal power) may also refer to a system that focuses solar rays on a photovoltaic cell to increase conversion efficiency Bioethanol Ethanol (alcohol) produced chemically from ethylene, or biologically from fermentation of various sugars from carbohydrates found in agricultural crops and cellulosic residues from crops or wood. Geothermal energy The heat that is extracted from hot water or stream that is mined from geothermal reservoirs in the earth’s crust. Water or stream can be used as a working fluid for geothermal heat pumps, water heating or electricity generation and then injected back into the earth. Marine energy Energy conversion technologies that harness the energy in tides, waves and thermal gradients in the oceans Renewable energy generation potential The achievable energy generation from renewable energy resources (wind, solar, geothermal, wave, tidal, hydropower, biomass, landfill gas, sewage treatment plant gas and biogases) Renewable energy resources Renewable non-fossil energy sources (wind, solar, geothermal, wave, tidal, hydropower, biomass, landfill gas, sewage treatment plant gas and biogases)" (Directive 2003/54/EC). Solar energy The radiant energy of the sun, which can be converted into other forms of energy, such as heat or electricity. Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Solar Photovoltaic refers to a technology which uses a device (usually a solar panel) to produce free electrons when exposed to light, resulting in the production of an electric current. Wind energy Kinetic energy present in wind motion that can be converted to mechanical energy for driving pumps, mills and electric power generators References 1. Szabo et al. – Technical Assessment of the Renewable Energy Action Plans - EUR 24962 EN http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/jrc/downloads/jrc_reference_report_2011_reap.pdf 2. Directive 2009/28/EC on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable energy sources http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=Oj:L:2009:140:0016:0062:en:PDF 3. NREAP Forecast Documents: http://ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/transparency_ platform/forecast_documents_en.htm 4. National Renewable Energy Action Plans: http://ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/transparency_platform/action_plan_en.htm 5. (2009/548/EC) COMMISSION DECISION of establishing a template for National Renewable Energy Action Plans under Directive 2009/28/EC http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:32009D0548:EN:NOT 103 European Commission EUR 25757 – Joint Research Centre – Institute for Energy and Transport Title: Review of Technical Assessment of National Renewable Energy Action Plans Authors: Manjola Banja, Fabio Monforti-Ferrario, Nicolae Scarlat Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union 2013 – 103 pp. – 21.0 x 29.7 cm EUR – Scientific and Technical Research series – ISSN 1018-5593 ISBN 978-92-79-28219-5 doi: 10.2790/75884 Abstract In the present Report data contained in the National Renewable Energy Action Plans and already presented in the previous EU 24926 EN reference report (2011) have been updated considering the final NREAPs versions submitted in early 2012. Differences with the previously reported data are put into evidence in the Review Highlights, while Annex I and II contain the updated versions of Figures and Tables of the 2011 report. LD-NA-25757-EN-C As the Commission’s in-house science service, the Joint Research Centre’s mission is to provide EU policies with independent, evidence-based scientific and technical support throughout the whole policy cycle. Working in close cooperation with policy Directorates-General, the JRC addresses key societal challenges while stimulating innovation through developing new standards, methods and tools, and sharing and transferring its know-how to the Member States and international community. Key policy areas include: environment and climate change; energy and transport; agriculture and food security; health and consumer protection; information society and digital agenda; safety and security including nuclear; all supported through a cross-cutting and multidisciplinary approach.