UFRGSMUN | UFRGS Model United Nations ISSN: 2318-3195 | v.2, 2014| p. 337-374 ENERGY TRANSITION AND CHALLENGES FOR THE 21ST CENTURY ABSTRACT Bruna Jaeger1 Patrícia Machry2 his section deals with the debate on the challenges generated by the Energy Transition. “Energy Transitions” are based on the notion that an energy resource, or a group of energy resources, dominates the market for a period or era, until it is challenged and eventually replaced by other(s) resource(s) (Melosi 2010). Since the 1970s, when the world watched two major oil crises, states and corporations began discussing alternatives that could replace oil as the basis of the global energy mix. In recent years, this process has intensiied. he use of clean energy sources (hydro, nuclear, wind, solar, tidal, geothermal, biofuels) emerge as possible replacements for fossil fuels. However, this is not an easy transition. here are many questions about the ability of these new sources to meet world energy demand, which is growing. In addition, proposals that include increased use of new forms of fossil fuels (shale gas, tar sands, ultraheavy oil) keep the world dependent on inite fuels and generate huge impacts on the environment. In this sense, the WEC seeks to discuss possible solutions to this energy challenge. Ie, how to perform the transition to a post-oil era without afecting energy supply, maintaining equitable distribution of electricity and without destroying the environment. 1 Bruna Jaeger is a 8th semester International Relations undergraduation student at UFRGS and director of the WEC. 2 Patrícia Machry is a 6th semester International Relations undergraduation student at UFRGS and assistant director of the WEC. Ministerial roundtable of the World energy CounCil 1 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND 1.1 THE CONCEPTS OF ENERGY TRANSITION AND ENERGY SECURITY According to Kerr Oliveira (2012), the concept of energy basically refers to three aspects: natural energy resources, the infrastructure logistics of energy, and the set of techniques, knowledge and energy development. In other words, this can be understood as an Energy System. Energy refers to the set of basic processes of extraction, capture and processing of natural energy resources. Also includes consumption systems or end use of diferent forms of energy that occur in the main productive activities (industry, agriculture, utilities, trade, transport and communications). Finally, energy can be understood as the capacity to make decisions regarding the use of energy infrastructure and investment in Research & Development (Kerr Oliveira 2012, 19). As it already have been pointed out, “Energy Transitions” are based on the notion that an energy resource, or a group of energy resources, dominates the market for a period or era, until it is challenged and eventually replaced by other(s) resource(s) (Melosi 2010). An Energy Transition is not an abrupt change from one reality to another. It is a transformation that evolves through considerable time, and that can lead to greater diversity in the energy market (Yergin 2013). Energy Transitions are not sudden breakthroughs that follow periods of prolonged stagnation. Rather, they are processes that unfold continuously, gradually changing the composition of the resources used to generate heat, motion and light. hese transitions also replace the dominant methods of energy conversion, increasing eiciency in energy-dependent processes (Smil 2013). he concept of Energy Security can be understood as the state in which a country or region has a level of energy availability that is suicient to maintain reasonable rates of economic growth and development (Klare 2004). In the long term, it means the ability to magnify the power consumption without major obstacles in terms of technology, infrastructure, power generation and distribution, or availability of energy resources. In addition, the ideal conditions for Energy Security shall ensure the integrity and security of energy infrastructure (Yergin 2006). Kerr Oliveira (2012) ranks the main Energy Security Strategies in three broad categories: (I) Energy Self-Reliance, which can be operationalized through the diversiication of energy sources, decentralized infrastructure for generation and distribution of energy, energy innovation, and energy eiciency; (II) Security of External Energy Supply, which involves the diversiication of foreign suppliers, or the militarization of the energy resources control abroad; and (III) Regional Energy Integration, which 338 ufrgsMun | ufrgs Model united nations is achieved through the integration of infrastructure and energy supply chains in a region or continent. 1.2 THE IMPORTANCE OF ENERGY FOR HUMANKIND: AN OVERVIEW here are several ways in which energy can transform human life. According to energy analyst Daniel Yergin, these transformations can be summarized in the simplest forms: the access to lighting, cooling, heating and transportation (Yergin 2004, 716). Before the light bulb was invented, lighting could be provided by the sun, candles, oil and gas lamps. Access to light gave men a whole variety of choices, as productive hours were extended once they no longer depended on sunlight. Access to heating by burning wood also made a diference to mankind, from cooking to the survival in cold temperatures. Cooling, on the other hand, allowed men to live and perpetuate the species in arid zones. Finally, the energy revolution that took place with the industrialization represented a change also in terms of transportation, when steam power was applied to boats and trains and resulted in locomotives and steam ships. People could travel on railways many times faster than on foot, transforming also the way services and goods were transported. Energy can also be easily related to civilization and social development. Societies that remained agrarian for a long time and were not touched by industrialization had little population growth (Grigg 1980). hat is because demographical increases have to rely on an expanding energy supply, for the simple reason that whenever human population grows, societies begin to require more of everything in order to satisfy the basic material needs of individuals: food, water, ibers, clothing, shelter and so on (Klare 2002). herefore, alongside with developments in production (generally the spread of industrialization), communications, transportation and military, increases in human numbers can also enlarge the demand for natural resources3. According to Goldemberg (1998, 7), energy is an essential ingredient for development, therefore the energy consumption per capita could be a good meter of a nation’s quality of life, wealth and development4. Since humans irst appeared on Earth, controlling energy resources has been a major concern for survival. As men learned how to use and control energy, they increased their power to alter the environment around them, producing more food and building bigger and stronger shelters. As centuries passed by, societies became 3 Michael Klare stresses that increases in personal wealth also contributes for an insatiable appetite for energy, as people start to desire more resource-intensive commodities as they get wealthier (e.g. private automobiles) (Klare 2002, 15). 4 Energy is a relevant variable to understand the diferent capacities among great powers: the richest and most developed nations present the greater amounts of energy consumption (Kerr Oliveira 2012). 339 Ministerial roundtable of the World energy CounCil more complex, which led to an increased use of energy resources to maintain such new arrangements. A variety of new energy resources were discovered throughout the years, and the control over them turned to be a main concern of states, as they believed that this control would render them powerful within a competitive international system. Yet, during a period of over ifty thousand years, humankind relied only on a single form of energy: human muscles (Smil 1994). Human labor power was for centuries an important source of mechanical energy: not only it was responsible for agricultural production, but it was also crucial for the formation of armies to defend territories since the Ancient Ages (Kerr Oliveira and Brandão 2011). Fire was discovered by burning wood, animal dung and charcoal, providing heat, and this discovery came as a means to complement human strength in providing energy. he domestication of animals also turned out to be an important source of energy, since animal traction proved to be useful for transporting people and goods. Later, the use of water and wind to generate power gained importance, and windmills and water-wheels became the most powerful mean to use energy until the invention of the steam engine (Smil 1994). In the end of the 18th century, a wave of technological advances led to a process of modernization which later became known as the Industrial Revolution. In that moment, men discovered the potential of fossil fuels - starting with coal -, and steam engines rendered windmills and water-wheels obsolete. his use of coal and other fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas showed an energy intensity as never seen before (Smil 1994). With developments in the energy system such as changes in the production, transmission, storage and consumption of energy, a wide range of industrial branches started to become viable. he use of steam engines also held important developments on military afairs, as they fastened the speed of troops and the transport of supplies. Between the 18th and 19th centuries, the aforementioned innovations regarding coal use deeply changed the textile production. hey also revolutionized metallurgy and steel industry, allowing the creation of a whole new naval industry. On the second half of the 19th century, electricity started to be used, completely altering means of communication with the advent of the telegraph. he introduction of telephone and radio changed forever the conduct of warfare, as they facilitated communication between troops and led to the invention of coding. hey also revolutionized communications, allowing real-time transmission of events to the civilian population. Almost at the same period, the development of oil reining processes ended up constituting a whole complex of industries connected to the petrochemical sector. hese petrochemical developments enabled the arrangement of electric, aerospace and nuclear industries, which deeply inluenced the war industry (Kerr Oliveira 2012). 340 ufrgsMun | ufrgs Model united nations 1.3 ENERGY TRANSITIONS THROUGHOUT HISTORY In the last centuries, technological and productive revolutions were always strictly related to transformations in energy systems5. Every time the main source of energy changed, other modiications also took place with it, such as transformations in military craft, capital accumulation and international hegemony (Kerr Oliveira 2012; Arrighi 1996). To historian Giovanni Arrighi, commerce development and accumulation of wealth led to the constitution of a more advanced form of production and energy management, and these factors were crucial for the emergence of modern capitalist states (Arrighi 1996, 39-40). herefore, in this analysis, energy becomes fundamental for states’ accumulation of power, as it impacts defense capacities, economical and productivity competitiveness, social welfare and access to goods and services. States that can use energetic infrastructure more eiciently can achieve more relative power than the ones which are less developed in such area. When human force and animal traction were the most important energy sources, a powerful nation would be the one with an enormous population and large pastures. For instance, the huge supply of human energy contributed to grant the Chinese Empire with great power (Kerr Oliveira and Brandão 2011). Later on, when men discovered that energy could be provided by burning wood, nations who had access to forests were the ones who accumulated more power. Merchant cities of northern Italy irst manipulated wood, but the true hegemonic states turned out to be the maritime ones, especially Portugal, because of its access to great forests in America. Wood became the main raw material of European economies, serving both for fueling and for the construction of tools (Nogueira 1985). However, even though wood is a renewable6 source of energy – as it can be easily replaced by reforestation -, the demand for it started to grow faster than its replacement, and a new source started to become more popular: mineral coal (Kerr Oliveira 2012). Simultaneously with the status of coal as the fundamental and predominant energy resource, England raised as the great hegemonic power of the 19th century. he importance of control over coal sources grew remarkably, since it became decisive for wars and for the sustainability of production, transportation and communication systems in the Industrial Revolution era. England beneited 5 An energy system involves and connects natural energy resources with the infrastructure, technology and knowledge related to the use of many diferent forms of energy. It includes the extraction of natural resources and the transformation of nature forces in other forms of energy or work through diferent means and types of converters (Kerr Oliveira 2012). 6 According to the International Energy Agency, “renewable energy is energy that is derived from natural processes (e.g. sunlight and wind) that are replenished at a higher rate than they are consumed. Solar, wind, geothermal, hydropower, bioenergy and ocean power are sources of renewable energy” (OECD/IEA 2014). 341 Ministerial roundtable of the World energy CounCil from the almost inexhaustible supply of Scottish coal reserves (Kerr Oliveira and Brandão 2011). Nonetheless, the energy model based on coal would not survive the expanding energy demand of an increasingly industrial and wealthier world. he transition of the Coal Era to the Petroleum Era was slow. Diferently from the transition from wood to coal, the transition to the intense use of oil did not occur due to an extinguishment of coal reserves, but because a new technology proved itself to be signiicantly more eicient. Petrochemical revolution led to other energy innovations such as aeronautical turbines and propelled rockets fed by petroleumbased fuels. he former led to a revolution in transportation; the latter permitted a restructuration in communications, as it led to surveillance and observation from the space (Kerr Oliveira 2012). he most powerful nations of the 20th century were precisely the ones which had major consumption and production of oil: the United States of America and the Soviet Union. While the First World War consolidated the use of radio in the battleield, the Second War proved to the entire world that a huge availability of fuel to feed navies and aviation was central to winning any campaign (Kerr Oliveira 2012). he bipolarity of the balance of power structured during the Cold War was reinforced by the easy access and domain over natural energy resources detained by the USA and the USSR. By the end of that century, industrialized countries were fully adapted to fossil fuels. Coal and natural gas continued to provide power, while oil was consolidated as essential for transportation and industries. Capitalism expansion allowed petroleum to become the most important fuel of the present, therefore starting to be related to the American hegemony. hus, it can be deinitely said that the great dominant power of a speciic period always turned out to be the one which had control over the current energy model. However, this did not happen without jeopardizing the ones who were left behind in industrialization. Nations that could not follow the most powerful ones on this process turned to be on a dependent and subordinated position. As high quality of life is related to energy consumption, populations who cannot count on modern energy forms are also the poorest in the world. his leads to increasing competition among states, mainly over the domain of natural resources and control of new technologies. he desire for self-suiciency over energy issues drives developing nations to ind alternative sources in order to diversify their energy matrix, in an efort to increase their independence and relative power (Yergin 2006). he current energy model based on the preeminence of oil has been showing signs of weakness since the 1970s. he petroleum crisis of 1973 and 1979 were samples of this system’s exhaustion. In both situations, the worldwide dependence on this energy source spread a major crisis, and the debate over alternative sources started to become important. Other forms of energy such as nuclear and hydroelectric power, biomass, solar and wind, seem to be an interesting alternative. It is 342 ufrgsMun | ufrgs Model united nations not known if the world will be able to maintain an energy matrix based on scarce and polluting fossil fuels for a very long time, and therefore it is of extreme importance to debate over a possible new energy transition that might be happening just now. 2 STATEMENT OF THE ISSUE According to the World Economic Forum (2013), there is currently major attention focused in the next Energy Transition: the expectation or the possibility of a signiicant change in the global energy mix. In relation to this possibility, some questions stand out. What would be the nature of the mix change? How fast would it be? How long could it take? he answers to these questions will have a profound impact on the global energy system for producers and consumers worldwide. 2.2 TRANSITION TO A POST-OIL ERA In the 1970s, the energy model centered on oil showed its structural limits for the irst time. Before 1973 and the subsequent oil crises, the global energy mix was composed by 86.6% of fossil energy, with 46.1% of oil, 24% of coal and 16% of natural gas (IEA 2009). In that period, nuclear energy and hydropower accounted for less than 3% of primary energy produced in the world. he irst signs of exhaustion from that model were appearing, as it became clear that the world could not continue to generate sustained economic growth by expanding the consumption of inite fossil energy at the same rate that occurred in the years 19401960. It became evident the need to establish a major transition to a “Post-Oil Era” (Kerr Oliveira 2012). Although the construction of a new model may have a high economic and technology cost, this development seems to be the only way that would allow increased energy supply on a global scale. In this sense, the post-oil Energy Transition has major impacts on issues of socio-economic development, environment, regional integration and international security. Particularly, the theme that permeates this debate is centered on the concept of Energy Security of a State or group of States. he structural characteristics of this crisis seem to be irreversible and are becoming increasingly clear: it is a crisis of the entire current energy model based on fossil hydrocarbons (coal, oil and gas) (Yergin 2006). Today there is a renewed and much more intense focus on what kind of Energy Transition might be ahead and what timing it might be. Two factors have converged to generate this focus. he irst is the concern about climate change and the traction of carbon policy in many countries and international forums. he second is the 343 Ministerial roundtable of the World energy CounCil worry that the current energy mix will not prove adequate to meet the rapidly growing energy needs of emerging market nations. he shifts in the balance within the mix will have direct consequences for all participants in the world’s energy industry – incumbents, new entrants and innovators, governments and, of course, for all the peoples of the world (Yergin 2013, 2). he energetic model that is proposed by many studies is based on the view that it should overcome the actual one, which is dependent on inite energy resources. his way, it would allow the structuring of a new model that makes possible to generate energy almost virtually ininite, with fairly low costs in economic, social and environmental terms (Kerr Oliveira 2012). However, the challenges of the diferent stages of a Great Energy Transition underway can signiicantly increase the likelihood of conlicts in the twenty-irst century, marking disputes between diferent States’ energy security strategies, especially if they are willing to dispute the last largest reserves of oil and gas (Fuser 2008). With the increase in oil prices in the 2000s, this debate has been resumed, partly by new environmental pressures, but mainly due to limitations presented by the actual energy model. he current energy mix is composed by 86.9% of fossil energy, with 33.1% of oil, 29.9% of coal and 23.9% of natural gas (British Petroleum 2013). In percentage terms, the global energy mix reduced dependence on fossil fuels about 10% over the last 30 years, which was at 95% in 1973. Crude oil remains the main energy resource; however, their representation in the overall mix was not so low in 13 years. However, considering that the world has doubled the total energy consumption, in reality the dependence on these energy sources has increased in absolute terms (Kerr Oliveira 2012). Although nuclear energy in its current stage of technological development is still dependent on inite energy resources (uranium, plutonium, thorium), this alternative to fossil fuels increased its participation in the global energy mix to 4.5%, while hydropower is at 6.6% and other renewable energies (wind, solar, geothermal) reached 1.9% of the total primary energy produced (British Petroleum 2013). herefore, as it can be seen, the current model, based on fossil fuels, can be considered “monoenergetic”, i.e., one major source is responsible for most of the energy produced (Nogueira 1985). Table 1 - Composition of energy mix by source and by region Nuclear Hydro Coal Natural Gas Oil Other Renewable North America 7.6% 5.7% 17.1% 30% 37.3% 2% Latin America 0.7% 24.9% 4.2% 22.2% 45.4% 2.3% Europe and Eurasia 9.1% 6.5% 17.6% 33.3% 30% 3.3% 344 ufrgsMun | ufrgs Model united nations Nuclear Hydro Coal Natural Gas Oil Other Renewable Middle East 0.04% 0.6% 1.2% 48.6% 49.3% 0.01% Africa 0.8% 5.9% 24.1% 27.4% 41.3% 0.35% Asia and Paciic 1.5% 5.7% 52.2% 11.2% 27.8% 1.3% Source: Developed by the authors based on data from British Petroleum (2013). Image 1 - Energy demand by 2035 and share of global energy consumption growth 2012-2035 Source: IEA (2013) he International Energy Agency conducted a study on energy scenarios to 2035, highlighting the increasing global demand for energy. With an average growth of energy demand of 1.7% per year, oil consumption in the world will reach 120 million barrels per day by 2030 (IEA 2003). With a world GDP growth of around 1% in 2030, US$16 trillion would be needed in investments in the construction and expansion of global energy infrastructure, 60% of it in the electricity sector and 38% in the oil and gas sector (IEA 2003). Hence, humanity faces the following problem: maintaining current existing energy infrastructure, which extends to the maximum possible duration of the current energy mix, implies the use of relatively scarce fuels unevenly distributed 345 Ministerial roundtable of the World energy CounCil geographically, costly and highly polluting. Kerr Oliveira (2012) introduces the debate on the crisis of the Oil Age, which involves three main shortcomings. he irst considers that oil, as a inite resource, is in a process of exhaustion which will be accelerated in the coming decades, creating an unprecedented crisis (Campbell 2005). his position is summarized in the thesis of “world peak oil” (Hubbert 1956), which can be considered the most pessimistic approach, or “catastrophic”. he second one also considers oil a fossil and a inite resource, but sees its reserves as suicient to supply mankind for a long time, probably for decades, with the greatest solutions to the expansion of oil extraction being the development of new technologies and exploration of new reserves (Deming 2003; Clarke 2006). Finally, the third approach, more optimistic, states that oil is not a fossil resource, but one of mineral origin (Gold 1987). According to this view, it would be formed deep inside the Earth, mainly from mineral carbon, which signiicantly alters the calculations of the total available volume in the crustal. In this model, formation of more oil would be a constant, although at a relatively slow rate. What this discussion shows is that there is a great diiculty in estimating how much oil can still be found. As there is a large margin of error in such calculations, it is also diicult to predict a date for the global peak oil. Both in the intermediate and in the pessimistic scenario, the maintenance of high prices tends to favor the replacement of oil and other fossil fuels for other sources of cheaper fuels. his could reduce pressure on oil, postponing its exhaustion (Yergin 2006). he reduced capacity of extra oil production, or the lack of capacity for rapid expansion of its supply, would be one of the most important factors in explaining the rise in the prices in 1998 to 2000. With the demand virtually equal to the supply, any kind of risks to the global production may alter prices (Kerr Oliveira 2012; Klare 2005). “Considering the immense variety of petroleum based products, the more likely it is that their high cost restricts its use to those purposes that cannot be easily replaced” (Kerr Oliveira, 2012, 145). Anyway, it is clear that a major world oil crisis might occur from the fall of world production of this resource. Due to the increase in costs that this will bring upon, such process is likely to extend the disputes for oil throughout the world. How this will happen is almost unpredictable for now, but the more a country is prepared to make this transition less it will be likely to sufer the consequences of the crisis. States that go through the Energy Transition earlier may advance more competitively in the Post-Oil era. States, or block of states, which are more advanced in planning their Energy Security will be able to make through this transition in an easier way and with less political, economic, social and environmental costs (Kerr Oliveira 2012). 346 ufrgsMun | ufrgs Model united nations 2.3 IMPACTS OF ENERGY TRANSITION In this section, it will be explained the main impacts of the current Energy Transition to the International System, listing aspects related to International Security, Socio-Economic Development, Regional Integration and Environment. International Security Energy can be considered an essential feature to understand relations of hierarchy, power distribution and security among states. Besides having direct implications for society and economy, the energy system also afects politics and war. In this sense, the ability to decide about the use of energy resources is central to ensuring the sovereignty of a state. he deinition of Energy Decision Center of a state refers to the capacity of planning and autonomous controlling the generation and the use of energy inside the country, what directly inluences the ability of states to transform energy resources in power (Kerr Oliveira 2012). As an example, without modern energy use, a country would be unable to use basic weapons of contemporary warfare, which rely on fuels and electricity for their operation systems. herefore, “the success of the Energy Security Strategy of a state or group of states inluences the perception of the distribution of power in the International System” (Kerr Oliveira 2012, 19). he concept of National Logistics refers to planning the use of multiple means to accumulate political, economic, industrial, technological and military capabilities in order to, ultimately, accumulate power and ensure the safety of the country (Sebben 2010). National Logistics planning can also expand the deterrent capabilities of a state if it is successful in turning the national logistical infrastructure into a mechanism able to defend its territory in case of foreign attack (Martins 2008). At the center of such planning is energy infrastructure, which supports the operation of all other strategic infrastructure of National Logistics, such as communications, transport and industrial production (Kerr Oliveira 2012). his way, energy is central to military and defense logistics, as well as being crucial to the long term sustainability of any country strategy (Lins 2006). In this sense, the control of energy resources and the energy distribution infrastructure can be considered central variables in global geopolitical disputes. Moreover, it can be an excuse or motivation for conlict between energy commodities exporters and suppliers. Logistics, energy infrastructure, and the pattern of energy consumption are understood as mechanisms of power transformers, and can be considered as key variables to the competition in the International System (Kerr Oliveira 2012). Socio-Economic Development Virtually all basic public services depend on energy for their operation. 347 Ministerial roundtable of the World energy CounCil Contemporary political institutions depend on energy for its maintenance and proper functioning: treatment and pumping of water, street lighting, health systems, communications, and especially production processes and transport systems, i.e., the low of people and essential goods. Nations that have become richer and more developed are those that managed to master a set of innovative energy technologies, which impacted on their political, economic and productive systems, thus enabling the achievement of a high degree of capital accumulation and in life quality. Currently, these countries are highly industrialized and with extensive ability to decide in a sovereign way issues related to their own Energy System (Kerr Oliveira 2012). Today, the index of average energy consumption is one of the most reliable variables to assess a population’s life quality and is highly correlated to a number of other economic and social indicators (Goldemberg 1998). he correlations between energy and development prompted the International Energy Agency to propose an analysis of countries using an Energy Development Index in order to complement the analysis with United Nations’ Human Development Index (IEA 2010). here is a need for programs aimed at expanding access to electricity, as increasing access to energy can be one of the fastest ways to improve life quality of a population, reducing poverty and inequality. Especially when it points out that about 2 billion people worldwide have no access to energy on a regular basis or afordable prices (IEA 2011). he current world energy mix might be characterized as clearly concentrating wealth and highly exclusionary. Currently, between 4 and 5 million people die each year related to the lack of basic energy and sanitation infrastructure causes (IEA 2011). Kerr Oliveira (2012, 64) describes this as an “almost energy apartheid”. If the 3.5 billion poorest people in the world, which includes the 2.7 billion who lack modern energy sources for cooking, had the same pattern of energy consumption per capita as Canada, this would represent an increase in about three times the current global primary energy consumption (Kerr Oliveira 2012). Surely this fact points to major challenges for developing countries. Such restrained energy demand on global scale cannot be fully satisied with the current scarce and inite energy sources. Hence, this also justiies the necessity of a large and deep global Energy Transition, which enables support for all mankind a pattern of life quality, consistent with the current technological stage. Regional Integration Regional integration processes based on the economic integration of productive chains, consumer markets and political integration between states in the same region and with common interests has been accelerated by the integration of infrastructure. For most states, regional integration is one of the few alternatives to expand its consumer market in order to sustain technological innovation and industrial production, in addition enabling the expansion of jobs for the available 348 ufrgsMun | ufrgs Model united nations labor force. “Maintaining the current trends, it seems that the countries or regions that are not integrated into blocks are in serious danger of disappearing economically or even politically” (Kerr Oliveira 2012, 56). Regional infrastructural integration of energy, transport and communications is a key step in this process, since it enables the integration of consumer markets, workforces, regional production chains. It also favors the building of common political institutions between countries of the same block. Ensure that decisionmaking for investment in energy infrastructure occur at the national level may not be suicient when compared to the importance that such decisions can have on regional-continental level. Environment Any process of Energy Transition has also signiicant impacts to the environment. he model based on fossil fuels, in particular oil, is in debate over the past four decades as it would be responsible for increasing environmental damage and emission of polluting gases into the atmosphere. herefore, the discussion on which energy source will prevail is central to assess potential environmental impacts as well as the sustainability of the energy model in question. In recent years, the environmental legal apparatus has signiicantly increased, besides the fact that there was an increase in world public opinion for the adoption of renewable and cleaner energy sources. Such sources would be central in mitigating the impacts of the increasing global demand for energy. he reconciliation of exploitation/production of oil and environmental preservation requires speciic instruments for environmental control in order to prevent and/or mitigate environmental damage from this activity. he potential environmental impacts of the oil industry varies, the most well-known being against the population associated with leaks in oil tankers and oil terminals, causing contamination and environmental degradation of oceans and seas. However, other environmental impacts are inherent in this activity, which are related to changes in water quality and contamination of marine sediments, interference in animal’s migration routes, interferences in coral reefs, mangroves, marine ecosystems, and social uses related to ishing activity. 2.4 ALTERNATIVE ENERGY New sources of energy are at the core of the 21st century Energy Transition process. hus, next section seeks to assess the potential and deiciencies of the main new forms of energy, especially those considered renewable and/or clean sources. 349 Ministerial roundtable of the World energy CounCil Wind Energy Wind energy is achieved through the usage of wind to produce electricity through aero-turbines. It is considered one of the cleanest forms of renewable energy available, since it does not emit air pollution throughout the electricity generation process. However, the construction of wind turbines requires extensive use of rare minerals that generate serious environmental impacts in its processing (Kerr Oliveira 2012). Nevertheless, wind energy is a promising complementary option as source of energy, since wind farms can be allocated both on land and at sea. High costs for purchasing wind turbines is one of the biggest problems related to wind energy, due to the need of rare earth materials7 for producing turbines, as already pointed out. Although wind farms do not demand large areas for their construction, the market for purchasing aero turbines is concentrated in very few companies, which diicult the access to it around the world. After the global economic crisis of 2008, demand from developed countries for wind turbines felt, especially in Europe, thus diminishing its acquisition costs, which, in turn, allowed for an extension of the acquisition of these technologies by countries of Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America (Global Wind Energy Council 2012). Even though wind power cannot be used as the basis of the new energy mix, since even the entire wind power capacity was installed it would not be suicient to meet world consumption., it can fulill an important role as complement to other sources such as hydropower. Hydroelectricity Hydroelectricity is produced by the kinetic energy of falling water in an area of signiicant declivity. Such kinetic energy is converted into electricity by turbines that intercept the water low. his energy form is considered clean since after moving the turbines, the water returns to its normal cycle without contaminants or residues derived from the energy producing process. In addition, the level of air pollutants emission is almost negligible. It is noteworthy that the energy potential of hydroelectric stations varies according to the size of the declivity, the magnitude and the eiciency of hydro turbines According to the World Energy Council (2014), only about a third of the world’s hydroelectric potential has been used, corresponding to 17% of global energy consumption. he overall potential for hydropower production is still small forward to the expansion of world energy consumption; however there is still a great potential to be explored. he chart below shows the hydroelectric capacity installed by region. It can be noticed that East Asia and Europe, with over 20% of installed capacity, are those whose hydroelectric potential is better exploited. In 7 A rare earth mineral is a mineral which contains one or more rare earth elements as major metal constituents. 350 ufrgsMun | ufrgs Model united nations this sense, Latin America and especially Africa, which had high economic growth in recent years, have yet vast hydroelectric potential to be harnessed, what may be fundamental for sustaining the growth in energy demand in these continents. Image 2 - Hydropower Installed Capacity by Region. Source: World Energy Council (2014). Moreover, hydropower has advantages in regards to the possibility of its storage, which may be accomplished through the construction of large artiicial dams. his diferentiates it from other forms of energy production such as solar or wind, whose production does not allow storage. Also in these terms, when compared to other energy sources that also enable storage, such as biomass, hydroelectricity has a relatively lower cost (Kerr Oliveira 2012; Sauer and Carvalho 2013). However, the construction of artiicial lakes and dams has environmental and social costs, especially due to the fact that the looding of large areas implies the displacement of several species of animals and riparian populations, as well as the destruction of large green areas. On the other hand, the hydrological changes caused by water storage enables the construction of waterways, facilitating transport and logistics, which in some regions may even facilitate regional integration (World Energy Council 2014). Tidal Energy he use of tidal energy to drive generators and produce electricity has great potential of production in geographic terms. First, most of Earth’s surface is covered by oceans and seas (about two thirds of it), and, second, because the majority of the world population lives in coastal areas (World Energy Council 2014; Kerr Oliveira 2012). Energy can be obtained from the seas by harnessing tidal power, by the force of the waves and by temperature variations given the depth of the seas and oceans. Nevertheless, this form of energy is still incipient and undeveloped, which makes 351 Ministerial roundtable of the World energy CounCil the inancial costs of implementing and maintaining such energy parks very high. Analyzing the three previously mentioned ways of obtaining energy from the sea, it can be seen that tides are a global resource that might be used through the building of dams that harness the tidal low to release water through turbines, or by the exploitation of ocean currents. However, both technologies are still nascent: as the turbines should be installed at sea (under the sea, in large vertical towers, or suspended in vessels), inancial costs are quite high. Nonetheless, energy from the waves is a renewable form of energy, with many signiicant advantages over other energy sources, such as the low environmental cost and the continuous low of energy. Also, are the most widespread of use of maritime energy potential mode (Emerging Energy Research 2010; Kerr Oliveira 2012; South West MEP 2012; World Energy Council 2014). Solar Energy Solar energy is a renewable form of energy considered ecologically viable and with high productive potential. he two main mechanisms of obtaining energy through sunlight are photovoltaic collectors and thermal collectors. Photovoltaic collectors convert solar radiation directly into electricity without the use of engines. Nevertheless, they are not the most eicient way of harnessing solar energy. hermal collectors, on the other hand, can be used for household heating, both in terms of home and water. he main diiculty for using solar energy is the intermittence of the source, either daily or seasonal, which results in low eiciency in areas of high humidity or where there are many rainy days during the year, as well as in areas of high latitudes, where day length is shorter during a great part of the year (Kerr Oliveira 2012; World Energy Council 2014). In addition, the inancial costs for the implementation and maintenance of solar collectors are still quite high, which impedes its spread. With the increased production of collectors, nonetheless, it might be possible that in the coming decades the cost of production will fall signiicantly. Geothermal Energy he use of geothermal energy is the use of heat from inside the earth to generate electricity. his source of energy is an alternative with great potential as it leverages a virtually endless source of energy to heat water, using the pressure of boiling water to move steam turbines, like a thermoelectric plant. Diferently from thermal energy, it does not burn fuel, thus being considered a clean source of energy (World Energy Council 2014; British Petroleum 2014). Among the problems of such energy source is its dependency on very speciic geographical regions to be advantageous. In this sense, it is needed a source close to the surface, which means installing stations in regions with high volcanic or tectonic 352 ufrgsMun | ufrgs Model united nations activity, that are geologically unstable. For this energy source being indeed feasible, it would require the development of technologies that allow the capture of this heat source from any point on Earth’s surface. Moreover, it would be necessary to develop techniques for drilling in ultra-deep areas of the earth’s crust, which is currently unviable (Kerr Oliveira 2012; British Petroleum 2014). It is estimated that currently the geothermal potential could supply 8.3% of global electricity consumption (World Energy Council 2014). Biomass and Biofuels Biomass refers to any organic matter, usually in solid form, which can be used as fuel to produce electricity. In this sense, its origin may be from agriculture, lumber mills or waste, municipal or industrial. he decomposition of this biomass produces biogas, which is composed mostly of methane (Kerr Oliveira 2012; World Energy Council 2014). he energy resources of biomass can be classiied in several ways, however it should be recognized that the lows of biomass energy are associated with biofuels which, in turn, can be presented in three main groups, according to the origin of matter composed. hus, there are biofuels from wood (dendrofuels), biofuels from nonforest plantation (agrofuels) and municipal waste (Nogueira and Lora 2003, 1). Currently, biomass energy meets 10% of the world energy consumption (Schill, 2013). Of these 10%, about two thirds are produced in developing countries, which have sought to harness the potential of this energy source more intensively in the last decade. Biomass stands out as a renewable energy because it reuses discarded materials, including organic waste, which qualiies it as a source of environmentally sustainable energy. Liquid biofuels - ethanol, biodiesel and vegetable oils - stand out because they are simple substitutes for hydrocarbon fuels, especially for transport and industry. In 2010, biofuels accounted about 3% of world consumption of fuels, with ethanol being responsible for 73% of such consumption, while biodiesel accounted for 27% (Schill 2013; World Energy Council 2014). Both ethanol and biodiesel can be produced from various plant species: cane sugar, corn, cassava, sunlower, etc. hey have a huge potential for exploitation because all these diferent plants can be grown in diferent seasons, which reduces the negative efects of seasonality. Moreover, in ecological terms, biofuels are considered a renewable and environmentally sustainable source because they are biodegradable and their emission of pollutants is lower than those emitted by fossil fuels, besides the fact that planting areas also ofset greenhouse gas emissions. hus, biofuels have been considered a relevant alternative. Nonetheless, competition with the oil industry still hinders its rise (World Energy Council 2014). 353 Ministerial roundtable of the World energy CounCil Nuclear Power Nuclear power is based on the use of heat from exothermic nuclear reactions to produce electricity. Given the diiculties to ensure the safety of nuclear power plants, as well as the high inancial costs involved in the production of this form of energy, nuclear power has never succeeded in establishing itself deinitively on the basis of global energy. Although, this is a clean source of energy, and can contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Also, the costs of energy production are stable in the medium and long term, since it is possible to predict the energy production of a nuclear reactor. Figure 3 shows the installed capacity of nuclear power from uranium by region of the globe. Clearly, North America, Europe and East Asia are the main producers of such kind of energy, since the costs of installing a nuclear power plant are quite high (World Energy Council 2014). Image 3 - Uranium Installed Capacity by Region. Source: World Energy Council 2014. he possibility of nuclear energy becoming an alternative in the Energy Transition lies in the possible use of more conventional radioactive elements, other than uranium and plutonium, or in changes in the production process of this energy. Uranium and plutonium can be used for purposes other than the production of energy, i.e., for war purposes. Moreover, uranium reserves are small compared with world demand, and are concentrated in speciic regions such as Oceania, which accounts for about a third of the world reserves (World Nuclear Association 2014). Another problem is the residue derived from the uranium enrichment process since nuclear waste is highly dangerous, either by security issues, or for environmental reasons. In this sense, the use of metals such as thorium can prove to be a paradigm 354 ufrgsMun | ufrgs Model united nations change in nuclear energy production. he use of thorium as nuclear fuel dates from the mid-1950s and 1960s. horium is safer than uranium and plutonium, it is not eicient for war purposes, it has abundant reserves and the reactor needed for its use is smaller, which can reduce the cost of installing a nuclear power plant (Kleina 2011; Kerr Oliveira 2012). he nuclear waste originated from it would be inert after a time, which reduces the environmental impact and the possibility of it being used for military purposes. Although there are plants that have advanced in the use of thorium, reactors are still incipient, pointing that this is not an immediate alternative for possible energy shortages (Hamman 2013). In terms of nuclear energy production process, the great revolution would be the use of nuclear fusion as a mechanism for obtaining electricity. In theoretical terms, the process of nuclear fusion can generate virtually endless amounts of energy without producing air pollution or highly dangerous nuclear waste (Kerr Oliveira 2012). his mechanism is based on the generation of energy by replicating what happens inside the sun and in thermonuclear weapons, such as hydrogen bombs. Although this technology has not been developed signiicantly, there are large investments for research in the area (World Energy Council 2014; Kerr Oliveira 2012). Hydrogen he use of hydrogen as a fuel is one of the most promising alternatives in terms of energy production for the future. However, its production, transport, storage and conversion to a form of usable energy are still unresolved problems. Hydrogen has the advantage of being much more lammable than fossil fuels and do not producing toxic waste, since the fuel burns completely, generating only water vapor as residual waste, i.e., thus being a clean source of energy. In potential terms, it could be used in various stages of the production processes, replacing petroleum eiciently, which lead several authors to believe in that hydrogen will be the central element in the transition to the post-oil era (Geller 2002; Kerr Oliveira 2012; World Energy Council 2014). he most serious problem for generating energy from hydrogen comes from the fact that it is not found in pure state at nature. For the production of the fuel it is necessary to use large amounts of energy, which makes its use disadvantageous. his way, hydrogen cannot be considered an alternative in the short and medium term, as production costs are still quite high. Electromagnetic Energy and Virtually Endless Radiation (light, microwaves, space radiation) he use of electromagnetic energy and space radiation is directly linked to the space domain, since outer space has virtually endless energy in the form of microwave radiation. here is already certain capacity for the transformation of microwave radiation into electricity, yet it is still not an economically feasible technology since it largely 355 Ministerial roundtable of the World energy CounCil depends on the use of semiconductor materials of high costs (Kerr Oliveira 2012). here are projects that seek to develop a solar energy collector to be installed on the space, capable of emitting concentrated microwave to the ground (Lee 2013). he project is still in its experimental stage and the irst prototype might be launched in 2025, but questions as how to capture the microwaves are still unresolved. If the project succeeds, it will reduce the energy costs of KW/h in about 15% (Murphy, 2012). However, the use of this form of energy increases the disparity between developed and developing countries, as it depends on the control of space technologies that are too costly. Expansion of Energy Eiciency Increasing energy eiciency is one of the strategies to counter the challenges derived from the Energy Transition. Energy eiciency relates to improvements in certain sectors of the energy system (generation, distribution or consumption), or gains in eiciency that involve substantial changes in the energy mix (the energy sector, industry or the transportation sector). Since it may expand the energy capacity of a country, increasing energy eiciency is considered a “new energy feature”, since it helps to reduce dependence on primary energy resources (World Energy Council 2013). According to Kerr Oliveira (2012), investments in energy eiciency can be divided into two types. he irst, in the whole economy of a country (relationship between GDP/energy intensity), and the second is related to speciic technologies for increase eiciency in generation, distribution or consumption of energy. he great advantage in the expansion of energy eiciency is that there is no time limit for such measures to be employed, and the cost can be diluted over time. Unconventional Oil Against the grain of renewable energies is the use of “new” forms of fossil fuels8 as an alternative to the Energy Transition, especially non-conventional oil, which corresponds to the ultra-heavy oil, oil sands and shale (Johnson, Crawford and Bunge 2004; Kerr Oliveira 2012). he ultra-heavy oil is a form denser than normal; the main global reserves are in the Americas, particularly South America. Commercial exploitation of all these unconventional forms of oil has higher costs than conventional oil and they do not constitute a sustainable alternative energy to the environment, since they are even more polluting than conventional oil9 (Kerr Oliveira 2012; World Energy Council 2014). Moreover, it deeps energy 8 Besides the unconventional (ultra-heavy) oil shale and oil sands, these new forms include gasiication or liquefaction of coal. 9 On the other hand, they resize the world energy panorama by introducing the possibility of oil not being anymore a inite fossil resource. 356 ufrgsMun | ufrgs Model united nations asymmetries that exist between countries, as the world’s reserves are concentrated in a few countries more than conventional oil for example. 2.5 THE WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL AND THE ENERGY TRANSITION he world is currently facing huge and unprecedented uncertainties in relation to safeguarding a safe Energy Transition. States and leaders are faced with three major challenges: 1) signiicantly increasing the supply of energy to all humankind; 2) replacing the current fossil fuel-based energy matrix array for a cleaner, more abundant and less expensive one; and 3) accomplishing this endeavor without the occurrence of major conlicts or wars between states vying for control of inite energy resources. Image 4 - hree key interconnected policy areas are necessary to support the transition to sustainable energy Source: World Energy Council 2013 (a) From the study of the Trilemma Energy, World Energy Council (2013) produced a report with scenarios for the situation of global energy in 2050 and launched 10 key messages: 357 Ministerial roundtable of the World energy CounCil 1) Energy system complexity will increase by 2050. 2) Energy eiciency is crucial in dealing with demand outstripping supply. 3) he energy mix in 2050 will mainly be fossil based. 4) Regional priorities difer: there is no ‘one-size-its-all’ solutions to the energy trilemma. 5) he global economy will be challenged to meet the 450 ppm target without unacceptable carbon prices. 6) A low-carbon future is not only linked to renewable: carbon capture, utilization and storage (CC (U) S) is important and consumer behavior needs changing. 7) (CC (U) S) technology, solar energy and energy storage are the key uncertainties up to 2050. 8) Balancing the Energy Trilemma means making diicult choices. 9) Functioning energy markets require investments and regional integration to the deliver beneits to all consumers. 10) Energy policy should ensure that energy and carbon markets deliver. (WEC 2013(a)) herefore, the Ministers present at the meeting of the World Energy Council will be faced with many questions on the subject of Energy Transition. At what level of the energy transition process we ind ourselves at the moment? Until when the current energy model will be viable in economic, environmental and social terms? How to solve international security problems inherent in energy issues? What measures must be adopted to overcome the socio-economic and environmental predicaments? How to promote regional integration processes that optimize the energy security of all? What forms of energy generation should guide the nascent model? he answers to these questions are central to the direction that the Energy Transition process will take as well as to its future impacts. 3 PREVIOUS INTERNATIONAL ACTIONS In 2002, the United Nations created the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD). his summit discussed the relationship between poverty reduction, energy access, energy security, energy transition and climate change. UN-Energy was created by the UN two years after that: a mechanism on the energy ield in which diferent UN agencies can relate to assure cohesion and interconnection when it comes to energy matters. Besides that, it also serves as a mean to support countries on their transitions to a sustainable scenario. UN-Energy is organized around three major themes, each of them being coordinated by two United Nations organizations. One of them is “energy access”, which is coordinated by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the World Bank. Another theme is “renewable energies”, coordinated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the United Nations Environment 358 ufrgsMun | ufrgs Model united nations Programme (UNEP). he last one is “energy eiciency”, which is led by the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) (UN-Energy 2014). During the petroleum crisis, from 1973 to 1974, the International Energy Agency, IEA, was created, as a reaction from developed countries to the oil crisis and the OPEC. Back then, it aimed to help countries coordinating their reactions to great interruptions on oil supply. Nowadays, IEA’s main focus is directed to four major areas: energy security, economic development, environmental awareness and global engagement on energy issues (IEA 2014). he World Energy Council (WEC), by its turn, is the most important network of countries and enterprises that look for debates related to the energy system, its sustainability and stability. he Council exists since 1923 and it is strongly supported by the UN. In the beginning, the WEC essentially gathered specialists in order to deal with multiple energy issues. However, with time, it evolved to a world forum seeking for a future where sustainable energy is a possible picture. WEC’s intention is to work over energy matters in a most expanded way, therefore being a most inclusive organism. his means that all the stakeholders on every energy deployment can be part of the discussions and the decision makings: NGOs, enterprises, universities, governments and so on. here are around 3000 registered members, from over 90 countries. WEC’s major event is the World Energy Congress, the most inluent energy summit of the world. Twenty-two congresses have already taken place since 1924, the last one hosted in 2013 by Daegu, South Korea. WEC outstands for its enormous amount of studies, with publications of great technical and informational levels. he World Energy Issues Monitor, from 2014, is one of the most recent of it, covering the current energy agenda as well as its evolution over time. he World Energy Trilemma: time to get it real – the agenda for change is another of WEC’s papers, which seeks to support policy makers and the energy industry on facing the three main energy challenges: energy security, energy equity and environmental sustainability. Finally, the World Energy Scenarios: composing energy futures to 2050, is the result of another intensive research, and it shows prognostics on energy consumption and all the diiculties that will be faced on the next decades (WEC 2014). 4 BLOC POSITIONS he United States of America is at the center of discussions about global energy transition. Historically, it is among the major producers and consumers of energy in the world, occupying the actual second position. Moreover, it was involved in wars whose background was the competition for energy resources, as occurred in Iraq in 1991 and 2003 and Libya in 2011. In recent years, the country has faced a 359 Ministerial roundtable of the World energy CounCil debate on the future of its energy, which is based on the use of hydrocarbon resources, especially oil and natural gas. Fossil fuels account for about 82% of total energy consumption in the country. On the one hand, the US has deepened its dependence on fossil resources, especially after the discovery of vast reserves of shale gas. On the other, it has invested in the so-called “Green Revolution”, under which it seeks to expand the use of energy derived from renewable or clean sources. his way, the US has adopted a conservative position with respect to the energy transition model. Major US initiatives to address the challenges of energy transition are related to the pursuit in reducing its external vulnerability. In this sense, it has been seeking to diversify oil suppliers, minimizing the importance of the Middle East in its imports of this feature, use the shale gas - despite possible environmental implications - and invest in highly expensive projects in inancial terms to try to get virtually ininite energy especially by, for example, capture energy in outer space. I.e., the initiatives have been aimed at resolving the dilemma internally (EIA 2014; DOE 2014). Canada is one of the world’s ive largest energy producers and is an especially signiicant producer of conventional and unconventional oil, natural gas, and hydroelectricity. Its economy is relatively energy-intensive when compared to other industrialized countries. Canada is the third largest producer of natural gas and controls the third-largest amount of proven oil reserves in the world, after Saudi Arabia and Venezuela (EIA 2014). It stands out as the largest foreign supplier of energy to the United States. But Canada is profoundly dependent on the United States, since virtually all of its crude oil exports are directed to US reineries. However, economic and political considerations are leading Canada to consider ways to diversify its trading partners, especially by expanding ties with emerging markets in Asia. Canada’s unconventional oil sands are a signiicant contributor to the recent and expected growth in the world’s liquid fuel supply. Also, the country is the world’s third-largest producer of dry natural gas and the source of most US natural gas imports. Moreover, Canada is a net exporter of electricity to the United States, and most of its energy needs are met by hydroelectricity. Only China and Brazil produce more hydroelectricity. Conventional thermal power plants satisfy most of Canada’s electricity needs not met by hydroelectricity (EIA 2014; Canada Energy 2014). Mexico is a major non-OPEC oil producer and is among the largest sources of US oil imports. Since Mexico’s total oil production had been declining substantially, it had a direct impact on the country’s economic output and on the government’s iscal health. Mexico’s total energy consumption in 2012 consisted mostly of oil (53%), followed by natural gas (36%) (EIA 2014). Natural gas is increasingly replacing oil as a feedstock in power generation; however, Mexico is a net importer of natural gas. Mexico nationalized its oil sector in 1938, and PEMEX was created as the sole oil operator in the country. PEMEX is the largest company in Mexico 360 ufrgsMun | ufrgs Model united nations and one of the largest oil companies in the world. However, in December 2013, the Mexican government enacted constitutional reforms ending PEMEX’s monopoly on the oil and gas sector and opening it to greater foreign investment. he United States received approximately 71% of Mexico’s oil exports and Mexico was the destination for 44% of U.S. exports of motor gasoline (EIA 2014). his way, it is relevant to note that Mexico is believed to possess considerable hydrocarbon resources in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico that have not yet been developed. Despite Mexico has no international oil pipeline connection, theft of oil from pipelines by organized crime groups has become increasingly problematic. Most of Mexico’s electricity generation comes from fossil-fueled power plants, while hydroelectricity supplied about 11% of Mexico’s electricity generation in 2013 (EIA 2014; SENER 2014). Brazil is the eighth largest consumer and tenth largest producer of primary energy in the world (British Petroleum 2013). Total primary energy consumption in Brazil has increased by more than one third in the past decade because of sustained economic growth. Moreover, Brazil has made great strides in increasing its total energy production, particularly oil and ethanol. he largest share of Brazil’s total energy consumption comes from oil and other liquid fuels (47%), followed by hydroelectricity (35%) and natural gas (8%), and hydropower accounted for 80% of the electricity generation (EIA 2014; MME 2014). More than 90% of Brazil’s oil production is ofshore in very deep water and consists of mostly heavy grades. In 2011, Brazil’s liquid fuels consumption surpassed its production (EIA 2014). Petrobras - the dominant participant in Brazil’s oil sector - plans to increase its Brazilian reining capacity, since the country imports great part of its reined oil. Brazil’s pre-salt announcements immediately transformed the nature and the focus of the country’s oil sector, and the potential impact of the discoveries upon world oil markets is vast. Besides, the pre-salt areas are estimated to contain sizable natural gas reserves, which if proven could increase Brazil’s reserves by 50%. Unites States, China and India are the major importers of Brazilian crude oil. However, the country maintains strong energy links with the neighboring, such as Paraguay, Argentina, Bolivia, Venezuela and Uruguay, especially in hydropower, oil and natural gas. In this sense, Brazil is expected to deepen ties with the region, which if integrated, could achieve the status of great energy superpower in the XXI century (Kerr Oliveira 2012). Bolivia is economically dependent on its energy production, especially natural gas, which represents 50% of its exports (IMF 2012). he energy consumption is also based on hydrocarbons, which represent 80% of the total, the remainder being waste and biomass, hydroelectricity and other renewable features (EIA 2014). Bolivia is an oil importing country, however, it is key to the supply of natural gas in South America, mainly via pipelines into Brazil and Argentina. he state company YPFB has sought new partnerships for investment in new areas for natural gas exploration in 361 Ministerial roundtable of the World energy CounCil the country. Being a poor country, 2.2 million Bolivians do not have adequate access to electricity (IEA 2012). In this sense, as well as Paraguay, the country depends on foreign investment and especially the integration with neighboring countries in order to diversify the economy, strengthen the development and reduce regional disparities. Besides the economic similarity, like Bolivia, Paraguay has a central geostrategic position in South America. he two countries have even clashed in the Chaco War (1932-1935) to compete in a region that previously had been thought to have oil. It was the geopolitical centrality that led Paraguay to negotiate with Brazil for building the binational Itaipu Hydroelectric Power Plant, one of the world largest and which accounts for about 75% of the energy consumed in Paraguay (Itaipu Binacional 2012). he country has no energy reserves of hydrocarbons, however, hydropower exports to Brazil guarantees signiicant contribution of resources, since the country does not consume all it could claim in the division of Itaipu’s production. Colombia has seen a great increase in oil, natural gas, and coal production in recent years after the implementation of a series of regulatory reforms. he government implemented a partial privatization of state oil company Ecopetrol (Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos S.A.) in an attempt to revive its upstream oil industry. However, after nearly a half-decade of relatively secure operations, attacks on oil and natural gas pipelines have increased. Expanded oil production will require discoveries of reserves and improvements to infrastructure safety. Colombia is self-suicient in natural gas supply and recently began exporting to neighboring Venezuela. In 2011, the country was the ifth-largest coal exporter in the world. Besides, 60% of Colombia’s electricity generation is derived from hydropower (EIA 2014; Colombia Energía 2014). Argentina is the largest producer of natural gas and the fourth largest oil producer in South America (British Petroleum 2013). he domestic demand for energy has grown rapidly in the country, however, the increase in oil and natural gas production has not met this demand, which makes Argentina dependent on imports of these resources, especially reined liquids. Together, natural gas and petroleum match for about 86% of energy consumption. A smaller share of the country’s total energy consumption can be attributed to nuclear, coal, and hydropower (EIA 2014). In order to counter the energy bottleneck, the Argentine government began investing in tarif incentives to companies that do partnership with the state owned ENARSA. In May 2012, the Argentine government, claiming under investment in the country hydrocarbon sector, passed legislation conirming the expropriation of the YPF, the largest oil producer in the country (EIA 2014). Moreover, Argentina has sought to strengthen the proposed energy integration in South America, as it is currently part of a network of regional transmission of natural gas, which passes through Bolivia, Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Uruguay. Also, Argentina maintains interconnections in electricity with Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay. In this sense, the focus on 362 ufrgsMun | ufrgs Model united nations regional integration can guarantee the country a stronger position in the context of global energy transition (Kerr Oliveira 2012). In recent decades, China has experienced a great economic growth, which has increased energy demands of the country, which went from an exporter of oil to one of the largest importers in the world. In the last decade, China has become the world’s largest consumer of energy, a situation which has brought many challenges for the country. Especially because the energy mix of the country is mostly centered on fossil energy resources, about 90%, mainly coal, that meets 69% of total consumption (EIA 2014). his scenario brings challenges to energy security of the country, which has sought to respond to this situation basically in two ways. On the one hand, the country has been trying to expand investments in renewable energy sources such as hydroelectricity, and, secondly, to increase the integration of infrastructure pipelines with neighbors such as Kazakhstan and Russia. Both measures aim to minimize its external vulnerability, which imports most of its oil from the Middle East, a region of high political instability (Kerr Oliveira 2012). Moreover, the country has also sought to invest in nuclear energy, following a trend that has prevailed in East Asia, especially in Republic of Korea and Japan. hese two countries were using nuclear energy as a major alternative to reduce dependence on imported resources energy (the Republic of Korea imports about 85% and Japan about 86% of energy consumed), especially oil, as it does not possess signiicant energy reserves. However, after the nuclear accident in Fukushima in 2011, many of the projects to build new plants were suspended or postponed, and has been gradually resumed (Brites 2014). he two countries have also been investing in alternative sources like tidal, yet it still does not represent a great energy source. India is among the top energy consumers in the world; however, the country still sufers from enormous diiculties to supply the growing demand. he basis of the country’s energy mix is coal, which accounts for just over 40% of total consumption (EIA 2014). Nonetheless, the very signiicant use of solid biomass (about 23%), especially wood and trash, shows that the country still lacks a system of modern energy generation, as well as ineicient use of wood waste and is highly toxic and lethal, especially to be used in poorer areas in the home environment (Kerr Oliveira 2012). India is also an importer of oil, and has sought to diversify its partnerships, since actually it has more than 60% of its imports from the Middle East. he great problem, however, is the lack of access to modern energy sources, with 25% of the population having no access to energy. Similarly, Pakistan has sufered energy shortages, which leaves about 30% of the population without regular access to electricity. he country’s energy mix is based on natural gas (about 48%), however, the country lacks a solid network of gas pipeline infrastructure, which has restricted the industrial capacity of the country (he Dioplomat 2013). his way, the country has sought to ally themselves with neighbors in the quest for 363 Ministerial roundtable of the World energy CounCil building projects of common pipeline. I.e., has focused on regional integration as an alternative for energy deiciencies. Over the past decade, Indonesia has increased by approximately 50% its energy consumption. he country that historically has consolidated itself as an exporter of energy resources, has been trying to reorient its production to the domestic market. he country is a leading exporter of liqueied natural gas and coal. Coal have been the energy source whose use has grown more in recent years, becoming the second leading source only behind oil. he country still stands out for being at the heart of disputes over control of routes, since its narrow territorial waters spend much of the low of energy resources directed to Asia (Brites 2014). In relation to renewable and clean sources, the country has a high rate of utilization of geothermal energy and has been investing in biofuels (EIA 2014). he Russian Federation is one of the biggest energy powers in the world. It is the second largest natural gas producer and the third largest oil producer in the world, a condition that makes it one of the leading exporters of world energy (EIA 2014). Its economic growth in recent years has led the expansion of energy exports, accounting for about 70% of total exports of the country (EIA 2014). Besides the energy derived from oil, Russia stands out from nuclear energy, ranking third in the world in production of this form of energy. he abundance of energy resources make the country not to invest substantially in new forms of energy, which makes its energy mix concentrated around fossil fuels, especially natural gas. Another consequence of this scenario is derived from disputes linked to the geopolitics of pipelines, which creates enormous pressure on its borders, which often become zones of disputes and actions of neighbors’ separatist groups (IEA 2014). Kazakhstan, an oil producer since 1911, has the second largest oil reserves as well as the second largest oil production among the former Soviet republics after Russia. he key to its continued growth in liquids production from this level will be the development of its giant Tengiz, Karachaganak, and Kashagan ields. Kazakhstan is land-locked and lies a great distance from international oil markets. he lack of access to a seaport makes the country dependent mainly on pipelines to transport its hydrocarbons to world markets. It is also a transit country for pipeline exports from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Kazakhstan is a Caspian Sea littoral state. he legal status of the Caspian area remains unresolved, mainly driven by a lack of agreement on whether the Caspian is a sea or a lake. Until all states agree on a deinition, legal status of the area will remain unresolved. he vast majority of Kazakhstan’s electricity generation comes from coal-ired power plants, concentrated in the north of the country near the coal producing regions (EIA, 2013). Ukraine has a strategic position in close proximity with Russia, which explains its importance for trade in natural gas and oil. here are two major pipeline systems that transport natural gas from Russia to Western Europe through Ukraine: the 364 ufrgsMun | ufrgs Model united nations Bratstvo (Brotherhood) and Soyuz (Union) pipelines. In the past, disputes between Russia and Ukraine over natural gas supplies, prices, and debts have resulted in interruptions to Russia’s natural gas exports through Ukraine, with the latest one occurring in 2009 (EIA 2014). Most of Ukraine’s primary energy consumption is fueled by natural gas (about 40%), coal (about 28%), and nuclear (about 18%) (EIA 2014). Only a relatively small portion of the country’s total energy consumption is accounted for by petroleum and renewable energy sources. More than half of the country’s electric supply comes from its uranium and coal resources. Fossil fuel sources (46%) and hydropower (6%) generate the remaining of Ukraine’s electricity (EIA 2014; IEA 2014). he United Kingdom is the largest producer of oil and the second largest producer of natural gas in the EU. he Kingdom established many targets for renewable energies, but oil is still the most important source for its energy consumption. he majority of the electricity produced in the UK is generated from fossil fuels, essentially coal. Renewable energy, however, accounted in 2013 for more than 15% of the total generation. Renewable energy use more than tripled from 2000 to 2012 (EIA 2014). he UK is also planning a decarbonization of its energy system – the Low Carbon Transition Plan -, seeking for declining on over 80% greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. With its well-designed policies for renewable energy, energy eiciency and climate change, Denmark is a strong voice internationally on these matters. Danish policies are based on strong governmental institutions with very clear obligations and responsibilities. he Danish Renewable Energy Action Plan expects almost 52% of total electricity consumption to be met by renewable energy sources by 2020 (EWEA 2011). Almost 60% of this will be wind, and biomass mainly will make up for the rest. Its long-term goal is to become a sustainable low-carbon society, completely independent of fossil fuels use by 2050. he energy solutions leading to this goal include building green transport and promotion of smart grids. Danish government is to implement a series of actions aiming not only to achieve these goals but also to secure Denmark’s position as world leader in energy, climate and environmental technology (IEA 2011). Comparatively to other European countries, energy use in Turkey is low. In the past years, the Turkish main focus has been on improving energy eiciency in order to reduce pollution and assure energy supply security for its economy. he country faces many energy policy challenges, since it needs reforms on the power and natural gas sector, and also an urgent decrease on energy-related CO2 emissions – which have been increasing since the 90’s. With growing economy and energy demand, the government seeks for investments in natural gas and electricity infrastructure, and mostly for a diversiication in its energy mix (EIA 2014, IEA 2009). Oil represents about one-third of France’s primary energy consumption. he 365 Ministerial roundtable of the World energy CounCil country has little domestic natural gas production, importing it from other European countries, and the government has banned the use of hydraulic fracturing10. Nuclear power is the main source of French electricity generation, and the country is the second largest producer of biofuels in Europe, after Germany (EIA 2014). he French have recently started to worry about energy transition and further discuss it in both international and domestic forums, looking for partnerships in that matter with Italy and Germany. he energy transition strategy is based on energy eiciency and sobriety and on priority to renewable energies (Ministère de l’Écologie, du Développement durable et de l’Énergie 2012). hey believe that any energy policy must balance between security of supply, cost and sustainability, in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 75% until 2050(Le Roux 2012, Gautier 2014). French policies aims on securing its huge nuclear power, reducing emissions within the transport and buildings sectors, and on the growing regionalization of the energy sector in Europe – by expanding infrastructure and interconnections with neighboring countries to stabilize electricity and gas markets. France faces multiple challenges, since its energy development strategy is very ambitious and expensive (IEA 2009). he country believes that the energy future must, therefore, be thought on a common European space, in which France has a key role to play (Le Roux 2012). he Netherlands is the second-largest European producer and exporter of natural gas, following Norway. In 2012, petroleum accounted for more than a half of the country’s energy consumption, and natural gas for 36%. Most of its energy is generated by fossil fuel-ired power plants, but more than 15% is generated from renewable resources, mainly biomass, waste and wind (EIA 2014). Netherlands is very important to the region due to its integrated supply chains11, but it is still one of the economies most intensive on fossil-fuels and CO2 in Western Europe. he Dutch government is prioritizing actions to support sustainable economic growth, and the country can beneit a lot on this matter from expanding interconnections with neighboring countries (IEA 2014). Back in 2012, Germany was the largest energy consumer in Europe, and the eighth in the world, what gave it huge inluence over the European energy sector. It was also the ifth larger producer of nuclear energy, and petroleum still was its main source of energy. However, the country is also a preeminent regional and world leader when it comes to renewable energy use: it is the largest European producer of non-hydro renewable electricity – being solar and wind the biggest sources (EIA 2014).Germany has been working on an energy transition strategy since the 1980’s, in a program called Energiewende. he irst German publication on this matter called on the total abandonment of nuclear and petroleum energy. Goals were 10 A drilling technique used to extract shale oil and gas resources (EIA 2014) 11 It pipeline system connects the country with the United Kingdom, Germany and Belgium (EIA 2014). 366 ufrgsMun | ufrgs Model united nations elaborated on greenhouse gas reductions, energy eiciency and raise of renewable energy use (he Economist 2012, Morris and Pehnt 2012). Yet, this German energy transition is facing some critics, because it seems that the country cannot accomplish to eliminate completely fossil-fuel and nuclear dependence on its own: these ambitious objectives afect European neighbors, and therefore a strategy must start to be thought on a regional level (Eddy 2014, he Economist 2012, EurActiv 2014). he German Energywiende has impacted especially Poland, efecting grid stability and Polish electricity markets. hrough the last years, Poland’s main priority has been energy security. Although it had some improvements on increasing the country’s share of renewables, it is still far from being put irmly on a low-carbon path. In 2011, coal accounted for 55% of Polish primary energy supply and 92% of electricity generation12, which makes the country face a plenty of climate and environmental challenges. he strength of the coal industry, the abundance of coal in the region and its subsequent competitive relative price are major obstacles for Poland to follow the environmental measures proposed by the EU (EIA 2013). Poland has to improve its energy eiciency and its eforts on diversifying the country’s energy mix in order to decarbonize it (IEA 2011). he National Renewable Energy Action Plan of Italy has set the goal to achieve a 23% share of renewable sources in gross inal consumption of energy by 2020. However, the country relies heavily on imports to meet its energy needs (EIA 2013) and still is strongly dependent on fossil fuels. hroughout this century, Italy’s greenhouse gas emissions grew and the Italian government did not put major eforts to develop energy infrastructure (IEA 2009). Also, the country’s rate of wind energy installations has decreased 65% in 2013 (Purchas and Gimon 2014), proving that Italy still has some great challenges to face towards a clean and renewable energy future. Considering all of that, it can be perceived that energy policy decisions made in one EU country may afect the other EU member states as well. he transition might be successful only if it is embedded in a broader European framework. Coordination and cooperation among European countries is therefore the solution to avoid conlict (Hockenos 2014). In Africa, progresses on sustainable energy models are much more discrete than in the most developed countries of the world. South Africa is the African country with the largest energy consumption, and it relies on its large coal deposits to meet most of its energy needs, since it has limited reserves of oil and natural gas. he country holds around 95% of Africa’s total coal reserves. he coal industry is, however, responsible for serious air, land and water pollution. South African shale gas resources are very notable, though this industry is still very small in the country. In 2012, renewables were responsible for only 1% of primary energy consumption’s 12 Poland is the second largest coal producer in Europe, behind Germany (EIA 2013). 367 Ministerial roundtable of the World energy CounCil totality. his strong dependence on coal made South Africa the principal dioxide emitter of the continent (EIA 2013). he largest oil producer in Africa is Nigeria, and the country has also the continent’s largest proven natural gas reserves. Nigerian electricity generation per capita is one of the lowest of the world, and its energy sector faces severe problems due to an aged infrastructure and low maintenance. Oil spills and natural gas laring are responsible for generating brutal environmental problems, and pollution by the oil companies are seriously damaging air, soil and water. Traditional biomass and waste account for more than 80% of the country’s total energy consumption, and transition for a clean and renewable energy system is still very far away from Nigerian reality (EIA 2013). Meanwhile, Algeria is the largest natural gas producer and the second largest oil producer in Africa. Its economy is heavily reliant on the hydrocarbon sector, which is responsible for almost all export earnings. Currently, almost a hundred percent of the country’s electricity generation comes from fossil-fuel sources. he country consumes a very insigniicant amount of hydropower, coal and traditional biomass. However, unlike its neighboring countries, the Algerian government has recently created a program which aims on reducing this fossil-fuel dependence and producing around 40% of domestic consumed electricity from renewable energy sources by 2030 (EIA 2013). Middle Eastern countries also face some energy issues due to some political instability and infrastructure hindrances. he situation of the energy sector in Syria, for example, is quite alarming. It has been in constant turmoil since the beginning of the hostilities between government and opposition forces within the Arab Spring framework. Both oil and natural gas production have decreased drastically since 2011, not only because of the conlict but also because of the sanctions imposed by the US and the EU. Energy infrastructure has been seriously damaged, and the country is facing challenges on the supply of heat and fuel oil to its citizens. Talks over a clean and renewable energy transition are very distant and unlikely to take place in the Syrian government as long as the crisis continues, and it is improbable that the energy sector might recover in the short-term analysis (EIA 2014). Iran is the third largest natural gas producer in the world and it has the second largest reserves in the world. When it comes to oil, it has the fourth largest proven reserves. International sanctions have been compelling Iran to redeine its energy system, and the lack of investment and technology is harmful for the sector. Natural gas and petroleum represent together 98% of Iranian total energy consumption. Energy wastage is one of the country’s most signiicant energy issues, since it recycles much less energy than the average of most countries (EIA 2013). Almost one-ifth of the world’s oil proven reserves is located in Saudi Arabia, the largest producer and exporter of petroleum in the world. Although it has 368 ufrgsMun | ufrgs Model united nations signiicant reserves of natural gas, its production remains extremely limited. he electricity demand in the country has been growing in the past years, for what the government plans to increase its generating capacity. he Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is also the largest consumer of petroleum of the Middle East. In 2013, large investments were made on renewable energy, in accord with the Saudi goal of generating around a third of the Kingdom’s energy demands using renewables, especially solar, nuclear, geothermal and wind power. Still, it remains questionable whether a country so economically dependent on petroleum will be able to perform such a transition (EIA 2013, Arab News 2013). Israel is not one of the major producers of oil or natural gas, and it has always been an importer of the latter, but this scenario may change in the next decade. Over the past years, some signiicant natural gas resources were discovered in the country. his fact may transform it from major importer to great exporter of this resource, which will become the country’s primary energy resource. he growth of the natural gas sector is even very likely to reduce Israeli’s consumption of coal, which is mainly used to generate electricity (EIA 2014). Besides natural gas, the energy regime that is emerging in Israel, alongside with the already on-going sociotechnical transition, includes also oil shale, biomass, nuclear, wind and solar energy as alternatives to oil and coal (Teschner and Paavola 2013, Ministry of National Infrastructures, Energy and Water Resources n.d.). Israelis believe that the energy transition must be integrated with transitions in other sectors, such as technology and industry (Teschner, McDonald, et al. 2012). Qatar is the largest explorer of Liqueied Natural Gas (LNG) in the world. Like its neighbors, this country also relies on the energy sector to sustain its economy. he country does not pursue any coal or nuclear generating capacity, and all of Qatar’s current generating capacity is natural gas-ired. Some discussions about potential solar power projects took place recently, and intensive research is being made in order to help Qatar and other Gulf countries to develop a low-carbon energy transition (EIA 2014, Meltzer, Hultman and Langley 2014). he energy sector is heavily based on oil in Iraq, which has the ifth largest crude oil reserves in the world and it is the second larger producer of crude oil in OPEC. However, even with these huge reserves, oil production has been below the potential levels, due to infrastructure and political constraints. he country has plans on tripling the generating capacity by the end of 2015. Around 90% of its energy needs are met with petroleum, and the rest is supplied by natural gas and hydropower. Iraq’s hydrocarbon resources have not been completely exploited yet, and just a part of its ields is in development (EIA 2013). he government is looking on developing solar and wind plants in the next years, and by 2016, it plans on generating 400MW of its electricity from renewable sources - what represent about 2% of the total generating capacity. It may be a tiny step, but it shows a growing 369 Ministerial roundtable of the World energy CounCil preoccupation on pursuing a cleaner energy mix (Iraq-Business News 2013). 5 QUESTIONS TO PONDER 1. What are the major challenges faced by emerging countries and how could they meet their energy needs in a “Post-Oil” Era and how would they deal with the economic and technological costs involved in such scenario? 2. How can countries prevent themselves from this transition’s impacts on International Security? 3. To what extent can this Energy Transition efectively impact the current processes of Regional Integration? 4. Is there any way for this changes to occur without leading to interstate conlitcts and wars over control of energy resources? 5. Which energy model corresponds to your country’s objectives and goals? What should be the nature of the expected change in the global energy mix? REFERENCES Arrighi, Giovanni. O longo século XX: dinheiro, poder e as origens do nosso tempo. São Paulo: Editora UNESP, 1996. Brites, Pedro V. P. A Instabilidade na Península Coreana e a Dinâmica de Segurança Regional no Leste Asiático. Master hesis in International Strategic Studies at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, 2014. British Petroleum. BP Statistical Review of World Energy. June 2013. Available at: http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statistical-review/statistical_review_of_ world_energy_2013.pdf. Last access: 12/06/2014. British Petroleum. BP Worldwide. 2014. Last Access: 05/03/2014. Available at: http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/about-bp/energy-economics/statisticalreview-of-world-energy-2013/review-by-energy-type/ DOA. U.S. Department of Energy. Last Access: 05/03/2014. Available at: http:// www.energy.gov/ Eddy, Melissa. “German Energy Push Runs Into Problems.” he New York Times. March 19, 2014. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/20/business/energyenvironment/german-energy-push-runs-into-problems.html?_r=0 (accessed June 370 ufrgsMun | ufrgs Model united nations 20, 2014). EIA. U.S. Energy Information Administration: Countries. Available at: http://www. eia.gov/countries/. Last access: 12/06/2014. EIA. Country Analysis Note: Italy. May 30, 2013. http://www.eia.gov/countries/ country-data.cfm?ips=IT (accessed Agust 20, 2014). EurActiv. Germany losing prestige in energy transition, study reveals. April 04, 2014. http://www.euractiv.com/sections/energy/germany-losing-prestige-energytransition-study-reveals-301364 (accessed June 20, 2014). EWEA, (European Wind Energy Association). EU Energy Policy to 2050: Achieving 80-95% emissions reductions. Report, Brussels: Artoos, 2011. Emerging Energy Research. Global Ocean Energy Markets and Strategies: 20102030. IHS, October 2010. Geller, Howard Steven. Revolução Energética: políticas para um futuro sustentável. Tese de Doutorado. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Energia da Universidade de São Paulo (USP), São Paulo, 2002. Global Wind Energy Council. Global Wind Energy Outlook 2012. GWEC, November 2012. Goldemberg, José. “Energia e desenvolvimento.” Estudos Avançados, 1998, 12 ed. Grigg, David. Population growth and agrarian change: an historical perspective. Cambridge University Press, 1980. Hamman, Renan. Reator de Tório pode revolucionar conceitos de obtenção de energia nuclear. Tecmundo, 2014. Last Access: 05/05/2014. Available at: http://www. tecmundo.com.br/energia-nuclear/41502-reator-de-torio-pode-revolucionarconceitos-de-obtencao-de-energia-nuclear.htm#ixzz30ucgr761 Hockenos, Paul. “Greening the Heartlands of Coal in Europe.” Energy Transition: the German Energiewende. April 08, 2014. http://energytransition.de/2014/04/ greening-the-heartlands-of-coal-in-europe/ (accessed June 20, 2014). Hubbert, M. King. Nuclear Energy and Fossil Fuels. American Petroleum Institute. San Antonio Texas, 1956. Last Access: 05/01/2014. Available at: http://www. hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf International Energy Agency (IEA). World Energy Outlook IEA, 2013. Last Access: 05/02/2014. Available at: http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/resources/ energydevelopment/energyaccessdatabase/ IEA. Energy Policies of IEA Countries: France. Review, Paris: IEA Publications, 2009. IEA. Energy Policies of IEA Countries: Poland. Review, Paris: IEA Publications, 2011. 371 Ministerial roundtable of the World energy CounCil IEA. Energy Policies of IEA Countries: he United Kingdom. Review, Paris: IEA Publications, 2012. IEA. Country Analysis Note: Israel. March 2014. http://www.eia.gov/countries/ country-data.cfm?ips=IS (accessed August 23, 2014). —. In-depth country Review: Italy. 2009. http://www.iea.org/countries/ membercountries/italy/ (accessed August 20, 2014). —. he Netherlands. 2014. (accessed June 20, 2014). IEA, (International Energy Agency). Energy Policies of IEA Countries: Denmark. Review, Paris: IEA Publications, 2011. IEA. International Energy Agency: Bolivia. Available at: http://www.iea.org/countries/ non-membercountries/bolivia/. Last access: 12/06/2014. IEA. International Energy Agency: What we do. Available at www.iea.org. Accessed 01 June 2014. IMF. International Monetary Fund: Bolivia 2012 Article IV Consultation. June 2012. Available at: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2012/cr12149.pdf. Last access: 12/06/2014. “Iraq’s Big Plans for Renewable Energy.” Iraq-Business News. 27 de March de 2013. http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2013/03/27/iraqs-big-plans-for-renewableenergy/ (acesso em 21 de June de 2014). Itaipu Binacional. Be-á-bá de Itaipu: mantenha sempre à mão. November 2012. Available at: https://www.itaipu.gov.br/sites/default/iles/BX_beaba_OK.pdf. Last access: 12/06/2014. Italian Ministry for Economic Development. Italian National Renewable Energy Action Plan. June 30, 2010.IEA. In-depth country review: Turkey. Review, Paris: IEA Publications, 2009. Gautier, Cela. “he French Energy Transition at crossroads.” Heinrich Böll Stiftung - European Union.15 de March de 2014. http://www.boell.eu/en/2014/03/15/ french-energy-transition-crossroads (acesso em 19 de June de 2014). Johnson, Harry R.; Crawford, Peter M.; Bunger, James W. Strategic Signiicance of America’s Oil Shale Resource. Vol. 1: Assessment of Strategic Issues. Oice of Deputy Assistant Secretary for Petroleum Reserves; Oice of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves, march 2004. US Department of Energy. : Washington D.C., 2004. Kerr Oliveira, Lucas, e Luciana Costa Brandão. “Os ciclos energéticos e as potências centrais: das civilizações tributárias à hegemonia britânica.” IV Seminário Nacional de Ciência Política. Porto Alegre: PPGCP UFRGS, 08, 09 e 10 de Novembro de 2011. 372 ufrgsMun | ufrgs Model united nations Kerr Oliveira, Lucas. Energia como Recurso de Poder na Política Internacional: os desaios da Geopolítica do Petróleo e o papel do Centro de Decisão Energética. hesis. (PhD in Politial Science). Porto Alegre: PPGPol/UFRGS, 2012. Klare, Michael. Resource Wars: the new landscape of global conlict. Owl Books, 2002. Kleina, Nilton. Cientistas apostam no tório como fonte de energia nuclear. Tecmundo, 2014. Last access: 05/03/2014. Available at: Lee, Kevin. NASA Wants to Beam Microwave Energy to Earth with a Solar Power Plant in Space. Inhabitat, 2013. Last Access: 05/03/2014; Available at: http://inhabitat. com/nasa-wants-to-beam-microwave-energy-to-earth-with-a-solar-power-plant-inspace/ Le Roux, Bruno. “La transition énergétique, un vrai vecteur de croissance pour la France.” Les Echos. 02 de May de 2012. http://archives.lesechos.fr/archives/ cercle/2012/05/02/cercle_46420.htm (acesso em 19 de June de 2014). Melosi Martin V. Energy Transitions in Historical Perspective: some thoughts. Presentation at University of Houston. 2010. Available at: www.bu.edu/pardee/ iles/2010/09/Melosi.ppt. Last Access: 05/04/14. Meltzer, Joshua, Nathan Hultman, and Claire Langley. “Low-Carbon Energy Transitions in Qatar and the Gulf Cooperation Council Region.” Brookings. February 2014. http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports/2014/03/low-carbonenergy-transitions-qatar-hultman-meltzer (accessed June 20, 2014). Ministère de l’Écologie, du Développement durable et de l’Énergie. “Roadmap for the environmental transition.” 2012. Ministry of National Infrastructures, Energy and Water Resources. Renewable Energy Resources. http://energy.gov.il/English/Subjects/RenewableEnergy/Pages/ GxmsMniRenewableEnergyAbout.aspx (accessed August 22, 2014). Morris, Craig, and Martin Pehnt. Energy Transition: he German Energiewende. Report, Berlin: Heinrich Böll Stiftung, 2012. Nogueira, L. A. H. ; Lora, E.S. . Dendroenergia: fundamentos e aplicações. 2. ed. Rio de Janeiro: Interciência, 2003. v. 1. 199 p Nogueira, Luiz Augusto Horta. “A crise energética atual e sua antecessora.” Revista SBPC Ciência e Cultura, 1985. OECD/IEA. Renewables. 2014. http://www.iea.org/topics/renewables/ (acessed 15 July 2014). Purchas, Gavin, and Eric Gimon. Renewable Energy Policy in Europe is Faltering: What are the Lessons for the Rest of Us? June 02, 2014. http://energytransition.de/2014/06/ lessons-of-european-renewable-energy-policy/ (accessed August 20, 2014). 373 Ministerial roundtable of the World energy CounCil Saudi Arabia aims to be world’s largest renewable energy market. Arab News. July 18, 2013. http://www.arabnews.com/news/458342 (accessed June 20, 2014). Sauer, Ildo L. e Carvalho, Joaquim F. de. Um sistema interligado hidroeólico para o Brasil. Estud. av. vol.27 no.77 São Paulo, 2013. Schill, Sue Retka. IEA Task40: Biomass provides 10 percent of global energy use. Biomass Magazine, September, 19, 2013. Smil, Vaclav. Energy in World History. Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 1994. Teschner, Naama, Adrian McDonald, Timothy Foxon, and Jouni Paavola. “Integrated transitions toward sustainability: he case of water and energy policies in Israel.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, March 2012: 457-468. Teschner, Naama, and Jouni Paavola. “Discourses of Abundance: Transitions in Israel’s Energy Regime.” Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning, April 18, 2013: Volume 15, Issue 3. he Economist. Germany’s energy transformation: Energiewende. July 28, 2012. http://www.economist.com/node/21559667 (accessed June 20, 2014). UN-Energy. About UN-Energy. Available at www.un-energy.org. Accessed 01 June 2014. World Economic Forum. Energy Vision 2013, Energy Transtions: Past and Future. Cambridge Energy Research Associates, 2013. Last Access: 05/06/2013. Available at: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_EN_EnergyVision_Report_2013.pdf WEC. he World Energy Council. Available at www.worldenergy.org. Accessed 01 June 2014. World Energy Council (a). World Energy Trilemma: Time to get real – the agenda for change. WEC, 2013. World Energy Council (b). World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050. WEC, 2013. World Energy Council (c). World Energy Council. 2014. Last Access: 05/04/2014 http://www.worldenergy.org/data/resources/resource World Nuclear Association. Supply of Uranium. 2014. Last Access: 05/04/2014. Available at: http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Nuclear-Fuel-Cycle/UraniumResources/Supply-of-Uranium/ Yergin, Daniel. “Ensuring Energy Security.” Foreign Afairs, 2006. Yergin, Daniel. Energy’s Next Era. Cambridge Energy Research Associates. Cambridge, 2006. Yergin, Daniel. O Petróleo: uma história de ganância, dinheiro e poder. São Paulo: Ed. 374 ufrgsMun | ufrgs Model united nations Página Aberta, 1993. Yergin, Daniel. he Quest: Energy, Security and the Remaking of the Modern World. New York: Penguin Press, 2004 375