Impact of Climate Change on Potato Production in India

Potato Journal, 2015

Scientific evidence gathered over the last couple of decades suggests that climatic conditions are changing rapidly. This trend is likely to continue, and even accelerate in future (IPCC 2007; Moss et al., 2010). These anticipated changes in climate baseline, variability, and extremes will have far-reaching consequences on agricultural production, posing additional challenges to meeting the food security for a growing world population (Lobell et al., 2008; Roudier et al., 2011). It is therefore pertinent to work out the impact of climate change on agricultural production, and develop, both mitigation and adaptation strategies. Although various methods have been proposed for the purpose but climate analogues offer a simple alternative. Reason being that relying on “analogue locations” that have today the climatic characteristics that are expected tomorrow in a target production zone can help predict the effect of changing climate on crops (Haussmann et al., 2012). Moreover, such stud...

International Journal of Plant Production, 2015

India is the second largest producer of potato in the world. The Indo-Gangeticplains (IGP) is the main potato growing region accounting for almost 85% of the1.8 Mha under the crop in India where it is grown as an irrigated crop during thewinter season. Since IGP is in sub-tropical plains, duration of the thermally suitablewindow is the main determinant limiting yields. Hence the impact of climatechange on potato in the IGP was assessed using MIROC HI.3.2 A1b and B1,PRECIS A1b, A2, B2 scenarios and estimated the potential adaptation gains. Thepotato crop duration in the IGP is projected to decrease due to climate change. Theevapotranspiration (ET) is projected to increase while the water use efficiency(WUE) for potato yield is projected to decline in future climates as a consequenceof low threshold temperatures for decline in WUE and yield than the ET. Resultsindicate that the upper threshold for ET decrease is ~23 oC while that for WUE is15 oC. The optimal temperatures for tuber yie...

Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018

Potato tuber yield were simulated at Jorhat, Assam under various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios for 2020, 2050 and 2080 using DSSAT SUBSTOR-Potato model. The model was calibrated and validated for three potato cultivars, viz., Kufri Jyoti, Kufri Pokhraj and Kufri Himalini with the experimental data collected during 2014-15 and 2015-16. Results revealed that if planting is delayed beyond November, all these cultivars are likely to record drastic reduction in tuber yield. Cultivar Kufri Himalini may incur tuber yield loss of 64 per cent in 2020 to 75 per cent in 2080, followed by Kufri Jyoti (57.6% in 2020 to 71.5% in 2080) and Kufri Pokhraj (45.2% in 2020 to 56.2% in 2080). Among the cultivars, Kufri Pokhraj may remain a viable cultivar up to 2050, but Kufri Himalini may lose its sustainability by 2020 itself. Hence, adjustment of planting time and development of improved adaptive potato cultivarsonly will ascertai n future potato production in this region.

Potato Research, 2020

The study was carried out to assess the impact of climate change on potato productivity to develop adaptation strategies in Punjab, using crop growth simulation models for future climate scenarios (2030, 2050 and 2080) under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 6.0. Three potato cultivars belonging to distinct maturity groups, late (Kufri Badshah), medium (Kufri Jyoti) and early (Kufri Pukhraj), were used. Simulation results showed that under RCP 4.5, increase in CO2 concentration is expected to bring an increase in productivity of Kufri Badshah, Kufri Jyoti and Kufri Pukhraj by 6.7, 7.2 and 7.1% in 2030; 10.8, 11.6 and 11.4% in 2050; and 14.0, 15.0 and 14.8% in 2080. However, the corresponding increase in temperature is likely to decline the mean productivity by 2.6, 3.8 and 3.8% in 2030; 6.5, 8.7 and 9.3% in 2050; and 14.4, 17.6 and 18.4% in 2080, for Kufri Badshah, Kufri Jyoti and Kufri Pukhraj. But, when combined influence of temperature and CO2 was considered, the productivity of potato will not be affected in 2030 and 2050 over the baseline scenario but is expected to decline in 2080 (Kufri Badshah − 1.9%, Kufri Jyoti − 4.1% and Kufri Pukhraj − 5.2%). Similarly, for RCP 6.0, increased CO2 concentration is expected to increase the mean productivity by 6.5% in 2030, 10.5% in 2050 and 19.4% in 2080. However, yield increase due to CO2 is negated by increased temperature with respective values of 2.2, 4.4 and 14.2%. However, under combined effect for RCP 6.0, productivity of potato cultivars is not likely to be affected over the baseline scenarios for 2030, 2050 and 2080. Results further revealed that by changing the dates of planting or selection of suitable cultivars, yield can increase in 2030 by 7.4% in Kufri Badshah and 7.8 and 1.5% in Kufri Pukhraj in 2050 and 2080, under RCP 4.5. Similarly, adaptation may increase mean yield up to 9.1% for Kufri Pukhraj in 2030, 9.8% for Kufri Badshah in 2050 and 8.2% for Kufri Badshah and Kufri Jyoti in 2080 under RCP 6.0. Further, with proper irrigation and nitrogen management practices, yield can be increased.

Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018

The impact of climate change on potato productivity in Madhya Pradesh was analysed using WOFOST crop growth simulation model. The potato cultivars of three maturity groups viz., Kufri Badshah (late), Kufri Jyoti (medium) and Kufri Pukhraj (short) were selected. The study was carried out for 38 representative locations of the state. The study was done for baseline scenario (2000) and for futureclimate scenarios for the years 2020 and 2055 using A1FI scenario of temperature (SRES A1FI pathway) and atmospheric CO2 (based on the Bern-CC model for A1FI scenario). Simulation revealed that although the increase in temperature is likely to reduce the yield by 10 to 11.4 per cent in 2020 and 22.9 to 27 per cent in 2055, a corresponding increase in CO2 may increase the yields by 4.6 to 4.9 per cent in 2020 and 19.6 to 21 per cent in 2055. However, the combined effect of CO2 and temperature will lead to a decline in productivity of Kufri Pukhraj by 7.6 per cent, followed by 7.3 per cent in Kuf...

One significant impact of climate change is the effect upon agriculture. As many evidences indicated that some remarkable changes could happen in climate scenario, the present work is mainly directed to discuss sensitivity of climate change upon the potato production in Egypt. The selection of potato product is mainly dependent upon that potato represent strategic crop cultivated in Egypt. The SUBSTOR potato model was employed to simulate physiological processes and yield of potato production. SUBSTOR model is a mechanistic, process-oriented model for tuber yield includes crop development. The present work introduces two possible cases of climate changes for the sake of climate crop production relationship. The actual measurements for potato production characteristics were used in the comparison with present and predicted. The climate change data is used from two general circulation models (CSIRO and HadCM3) for A1 greenhouse gases Scenario during 2050. The results of the work indicated that the potato yield decrease from 11 to 13% under climate change and the climate change data output from HadCM3 model gave the highest value of potato yield comparing with CSIRO model. And Valor cultivar gave the highest potato yield compared to Dezareah cultivar when the irrigation treatment taken place under current and future climate.

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