European Journal of Geography Volume 3, Issue 2: 6-23
© Association of European Geographers
DEPOPULATION IN THE WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES
Tamara LUKIC
University of Novi Sad, Department of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3,
Novi Sad, Republic of Serbia
snstamara@yahoo.com,http://www.dgt.uns.ac.rs/news.php?cat.1
Rastislav STOJSAVLJEVIC
University of Novi Sad, Department of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3,
Novi Sad, Republic of Serbia
ralegeo87©yahoo.com, info@dgt.uns.ac.rs
Branislav DURDEV
University of Novi Sad, Department of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3,
Novi Sad, Republic of Serbia
djurdjev©uns.ac.rs, info@dgt.uns.ac.rs
Imre NAD
University of Novi Sad, Department of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3,
Novi Sad, Republic of Serbia
imre.nadj©dgt.uns.ac.rs, info@dgt.uns.ac.rs
Bojan DERCAN
University of Novi Sad, Department of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3,
Novi Sad, Republic of Serbia
bojandjercan©yahoo.co.uk, info@dgt.uns.ac.rs
Abstract:
The paper defines the term of the Western Balkans. It analyzes population trends and some
parameters of the age structure of population. Depopulation is evident on the whole territory of
West Balkan. In this paper special attention is paid to the last decade of the 20th and early 21st
century, because at the time, new borders between countries in Balkan have been established.
With border changes, political changes and other transition processes occurred. Using data from
different statistical institutions of the Western Balkans and the well-known statistic and
mathematic methods, the comparable relative numbers were obtained. The paper tries to explain
differences between the genders and between countries of the Western Balkans. The results are
presented in graphs and maps.
Keywords: Western Balkans countries, depopulation, ageing, migration.
European Journal of Geography - ISSN 1792-1341 © All rights reserved
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1.
INTRODUCTION
From the end the First World War to the beggining of the last decade of 20th century, all the
Western Balkan countries, except Albania, belonged to the same country (Banac, 2009). This
means that, until the last decades of the 20th century, most of today's Western Balkan countries
developed in the same political system. Decomposition of Yugoslavia started after the census
1991 (Burg, Shoup, 2000) and finished 2006, when the Montenegro proclaimed indipendece
from State Union of Serbia and Montenegro (Fawn, 2008), (Macek-Macková, 2011). Since the
disintegration of Yugoslavia in 1991, there have been three wars in the “former” Yugoslavia,
taking place in Slovenia, Croatia, and Bosnia-Herzegovina; with further conflicts situated within
each of these conflicts (Hudson, 1999, 71).
Study area, the West Balkan (Map 1) is political determination that relates to the six Balkan
states which do not belong to European Union (Delević, 2007). It is the term, which is the first
time used on the meeting in Thessaloniki 2003. Foreign ministers and ministers responsible for
Justice and Home Affairs who periodically meet within the framework of a EU-Western Balkan
forum discuss issues of common concern, review progress of the countries of the region in their
road to Europe, and exchange views on major developments in the EU (EU, 2003). The Western
Balkan countries cover 2.1% of European territory. The share of population in total number of
european population is 2.9% (Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division,
2009).
During the last decade of 20th century and in the beginning of the 21st century, economic
and politic situation on the West Balkan was changing dramatically. Hence, paper is focused on
the mentioned period. It tried to make coorelation between mentioned changes and depopulation
in the Western Balkan countries. Particular attention is given to the gender characteristics. The
paper tried to explain whether the war made the gap between gender numbers on the territory of
the West Balkan.
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Lukic T.- Stojsavljevic R.- Durdev B.- Nad I.- Dercan B../ European Journal of Geography 3 2 6-23
Map 1. Geographic position of the Western Balkan countries in Europe
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European Journal of Geography - ISSN 1792-1341 © All rights reserved
Lukic T.- Stojsavljevic R.- Durdev B.- Nad I.- Dercan B../ European Journal of Geography 3 2 6-23
2.
METHODS AND MATERIALS
Using data from different Statistical Offices of the countries of the West Balkan and well known
statistic and mathematic methods, the relative numbers were given. They allowed comparison
between the Western Balkan countries. The results have been presented in graphs and maps. Six
countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia,
Montenegro and Serbia) have been observed in the paper. In 2008, South Serbian Province,
Kosovo and Metohija, proclaimed independence. International recognition of Republic of
Kosovo is not completed. Republic of Kosovo has not already organized census. From 1981, all
published data for Kosovo and Metohija represents assessments. Therefore, this territory is
avoided. Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina has published data which have been
obtained from the Institute of Statistic of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the
Republic Institute of Statistics of Republika Srpska and the District Brčko of Bosnia and
Herzegovina. All of these entities are parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina Federation and they have
their own statistical institutions. For comparison three years have been chosen. The first year is
the census year in the last decade of the 20th century. In the whole Western Balkan countries the
census was organized in 1991, except Albania where the census occurred in 1990. The next
censuses were in 2001 or 2002, e.g. in the beginning of the 21st century, except Montenegro and
Bosnia and Herzegovina. Montenegro organized census in 2003. Bosnia and Herzegovina did not
organize the census in the beginning of the 21st century, but its Agency for Statistics has done the
assessment. All the Western Balkan countries have done assessments for 2007, 2008 or 2009,
and all of them will organize new censuses.
To illustrate the age structure of the Western Balkans countries, the old age index has been
used. The old age index is the result of the division of two age groups: older than 60 and younger
than 19 years. If the old age index is less than 0.40, “the population is young”. If the value is
above this number, it could be said that “the population indicates aging” (Rančić, 1980, 190). If
it is over 1.00, old population has overbalanced the number and portion of young population.
This indicates the adverse relation on age structure and it has negative consequences on its
reproductive and active potential (Živić, Pokos, 2005, 211).
3.
RESULTS
During the respected period, from 1991 to the beginning of the 21st century, population number
decreased in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Foreign Yugoslav Republic of
Macedonia and in Serbia. Population number most fell in Bosnia and Herzegovina, twice as
Croatia, Albania and Serbia. The smallest decrease was recorded in FYR Macedonia.
Assumptions for the years before the census (2007-2009) only in Albania and FYR Macedonia
expect a symbolic increase in population (Table 2). Except Albania, all Western Balkan
countries have until 1991 belonged to the former Yugoslavia. During civil wars in the last decade
of 20th century, violence was mostly evident in the border regions of Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Croatia and Serbia (Lim et al, 2007). According to the share of gender in the total population, it
is not visible that the war has disrupted gender structure (Table 2). Besides the wars, the
population is affected by natural change and migration.
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Lukic T.- Stojsavljevic R.- Durdev B.- Nad I.- Dercan B../ European Journal of Geography 3 2 6-23
Map 2. Movement of population number of the Western Balkan countries between two last censuses
3.1. Age structure
The results of natural movement of population are best seen in the age structure of population.
For example, old age index has discovered the following facts. In 1991, populations of Croatia
and Serbia have “indicated aging”. Other countries were on the edge between “young
population” and “population which indicates aging” (Map 3). In the begging of the 21st century,
all the Western Balkan countries, except Albania, have “population which indicates aging”. The
age index of Serbia was the highest, 1.0.
In 1991, the age contingent 0-14 had a range of 19% in Serbia to 25% in Montenegro. The
oldest population (65+) has the same share (9%) in three of 5 ex Yugoslav countries. Croatia and
Serbia have bigger share of the oldest population (Map 4). In that historical moment, there were
more youth in compare to the old population. The last census has shown the following facts.
Share of young population decreased in all ex Yugoslav countries. On average, in most states it
fell by 3%, except in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which was reduced for 5%. Share of old
population increased for 3-4%. Although data on the age structure of Albania in 1990 were not
found, the latest census data show a significant difference between this country and the countries
of ex Yugoslavia. Specifically, the proportion of elderly in Albania in 2001 is lower than in any
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other country of the Western Balkans, according to census 1991. The share of youth in Albania
at the beginning of the 21st century is 8-13% higher than other Western Balkan countries.
The different distributions of populations in the three age intervals not only indicate a
variation in the ageing path among countries, it also provides important information on what the
key policy issues may be in the future. Demographic development will be a limiting factor for
overall development (Dyson, 2010). In the future, depopulation decline may initiate some
problems (Dinić, 2005). Reducing the number of working-age people produces lack of
manpower (Pinilla, Ayuda, and Sáez, 2008). The share of pensioners is getting bigger (Hewitt,
2002). Therefore pensions must be less. The need to care for elderly people will be more needed
(Kupiszewski et al, 1998), (King, Vullnetari, 2006). Health care costs will be higher (Van
Doorslaer et al, 2007). Single life will be more frequent. There were also be problems of family
sustainability.
Map 3. The old age index in Western Balkan countries according the two last censuses
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Lukic T.- Stojsavljevic R.- Durdev B.- Nad I.- Dercan B../ European Journal of Geography 3 2 6-23
Map 4. Age contingents of the Western Balkan countries, according the two last censuses
3.2. Migrations
Emigration is very important depopulation factor on the territory in Western Balkan countries.
After 1990s, the majority of emigrants from the Western Balkan countries left their homes
because of political and societal disintegration and its consequences, as well as result of the
economic restructuring, which has lead to significant shrinking and in some cases to the
elimination of formerly important industries (Hoffer, 2011, 179). Migrants differ by where they
have moved, whether it is one of the Western Balkan countries, or some outside it.
Information about migrations, which started in the time of secession of Yugoslav Republics,
can be found the numerous literature sources. During the 1990s, in Croatia, there were 19172
refugees from Serbia, and 233125 Croatian refugees in Serbia (Đurđev et al, 2005). There is a
small number of refugees from Macedonia (377 persons) and Slovenia (375 persons) in
Montenegro. Movements of the inhabitants of ex-Yugoslavia’s republics were happening even
after 1996. According to the UNHCR data, in 1996, there were 722897 persons who lived out of
their place of permanent residence and were from some of the republics but moved to some other
republic. Certain number of refugees returned to their homes in Croatia and Bosnia and
Herzegovina when the political situation quieted down. Some of them received the citizenship by
some republics, and there were those who moved to the third country, European or overseas
(Bubalo-Živković et al, 2010).
United Nation has divided the net migration rates in the Western Balkan countries 1990-2010
on the two parts. In the last decade of 20th century, only Serbia and Montenegro have positive net
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Lukic T.- Stojsavljevic R.- Durdev B.- Nad I.- Dercan B../ European Journal of Geography 3 2 6-23
migration rates. In the first decade of 21st century only Bosnia and Herzegovina has positive net
migration rate. Except Serbia and Montenegro, in the last decade of 20th century net migration
rates were negative and higher in comparison to the first decade of the 21st century (Table 1).
Migrations abroad or to some other countries perhaps are with added intensity when
compared to migrations within republics, and that is specific for certain republics (BubaloŽivković et al, 2010). From 1996 to 2005, according data of UNHCR (2006), 6.216.142 people
left the Western Balkan countries. This data is not consistent with data of population movement
trends (Graph 1).
Table 1. Net migration rates in the Balkan countries, 1990-2010 (net number of migrants per 1000
population)
Country
1990-2000
2000-2010
Albania
-21.8
-5.6
Bosnia and Herzegovina
-18.8
1.4
Croatia
-0.2
-0.1
FYR Macedonia
-1.8
-1.0
Montenegro
4.8
-8.8
Serbia
3.1
-3.4
Source: United Nations, 2009, Chizzali, 2011, 166
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38%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Croatia
FYR Macedonia
57%
Serbia and Montenegro
1%
4%
Graph 1. Country of origin of emigrants in the period 1996-2005
Source: UNHCR, 2006, Bubalo-Živković et al, 2010
4.
DISCUSSION
Depopulation is a process that has been present on the European continent for a long time
(Eberhardt, 1993). Its manifestations are often identical or similar to those in the countries of the
Western Balkans. Young people emigrate and the remaining population is ageing. Fertility rates
are low. Economic activity is scarce. Living standards tend to be low. In short, depopulation is
part of a vicious circle of economic and social decline (Crauser, 2001).Findings of fact will be
interpreted by looking at each country.
Albania has never belonged to ex Yugoslav Republics, but value of population number
between two last census decreases (7.1%) and it is very similar as Croatia or Serbia (Map 2).
Albania is very rare country in Europe with positive natural increase (Sardon, 2002). Although
data of age categories in 1990 were not found, the aging index is calculated using data from the
last census in Albania. According to him, Albania in 2001 was still a young country (Map 3). In
2001, Albania had the lowest proportion of older population compared to other Western Balkan
countries. Almost one third (29%) of Albanians were less than 19 years old. In the other Western
Balkan countries, this figure was not registered even a decade earlier (Map 4). Positive natural
increase could not replace negative migration rates. Negative migration rates during the 1990s
which continued, although with less intensity, into the present decade as a result of the opening
of frontiers after the fall of the communist regime (Chizzali, 2011, 164). The main destinations
of the migration waves are Greece, Italy, Germany as well as Turkey, France and Belgium
(King, Vullentari, 2003), (Geiger, 2007). Between the two censuses of population men are more
likely to migrate (Sardon, 2001), which resulted in a change in the gender structure (Table 2).
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Lukic T.- Stojsavljevic R.- Durdev B.- Nad I.- Dercan B../ European Journal of Geography 3 2 6-23
In Bosnia and Herzegovina population number decreased for 21.2%. Up to 200.000 people
were killed and disappeared in the War (Bassiouni, 1995), (Boyle, 1997), (Thomas, 1993),
(Kenney, 1995), (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 1993), (Tabeau, Bijak,
2005). According to the censuses, the population of Bosnia and Herzegovina was reduced by
14.3% (Map 2). Up to December 2007, exactly 2.140.544 people were noticed as refugees
(Humanitarian Issues Working Group UNHCR,1997), (Tabeau, Bijak, 2005). Some of refugees
returned to the country. Others moved in to the neighbor countries as well as in the countries of
the West Europe, Canada, United States, and Australia etc. Between 1996 and 2005, according
UNHCR Annual Statistics (2006) and Bubalo Živković et al (2010), more than 3.5 million
people left Bosnia and Herzegovina (Graph 1). This data, in fact, does not match data that is
related to reduction of the total population. It illustrates massiveness of migrations in the
observed period. Whereas return migration by refugees and internally displaced persons has been
recorded since late 1990s, today, low income and lack of economic development prospects in
many parts of the country are key factors challenging sustainable return and have become major
"push factors", for the young and highly skilled (Dimova, Wolff, 2009). According data of
Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina, war did not violate gender structure (Table 2).
War situation between two last censuses in Croatia initiated depopulation (for 7.2%). Croatia
is the only country presenting a population mean age higher than that in the EU27, but total
fertility rate is the lowest, even below that of the EU27 (Chizzali, 2011, 164). After Serbia,
Croatia is the oldest country in the region. Since 1991 value of age index was above 0.4, the
Croatian population indicates aging. Age index of Croatia has overbalanced the number and
portion of young population (Map 3). More than 400.000 Croatian labor migrants in Europe,
which constitute a large pool for potential return migration (Božić, 2007). The immigration of a
foreign labor force poses a number of challenges to the country, whereas emigration plays only a
marginal role in migration issues. Croatia`s geographical position makes the country an
important transit location for irregular migrants. The grow of certain economic sectors, such as
tourism, light industry and agriculture in some parts of the country, as well as the shipbuilding
industry, resulted in a demand for unskilled labor which attracts labor migrants from the
neighboring countries (Hoffer, 2011, 184-185).
Decrease the population number in Foreign Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia is the lowest (0.6%) between Western Balkan countries. From 1991 to 1993, FYR Macedonia gained its
independence by peaceful (Craven, 1995, 203, Daftary, 2001, 291, Štiks, 2006). The transition
has affected negatively the population growth and migration trends. Except Albania, FYR
Macedonia is youngest country in the region (Map 3), but it can be also be described as aged
(Map 4). In 1991 age index was on the age of ageing (0.4). Last census has indicated “slowly”
aging (0.5). Albanians, as national minority, of FYR Macedonia have positive and significant
influence on the natural increase (Babuna, 2000, 80). It was not strong enough to rejuvenate the
population, but it certainly slowed the aging. The second highest national unemployment rate in
the region coupled with a weak economy has led to FYR Macedonia being one of the countries
in the region where emigration is still important phenomenon. It is also one of the transit
countries in the region, mainly for irregular migration.
Montenegro is the only nation in the Western Balkans, where the population increased
“symbolically”, for 0.8% (Map 2). Positive natural increase of Montenegro is result of positive
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natural increase of some national minorities, as Albanians and Roma (Budisavljević, 2002). In
addition, important factor is the migration. The most recent influx of Roma came after the
conflict in Kosovo in 1999. Some Roma from Kosovo used Montenegro only as a transitional
stop on their exodus to the west, but many have stayed, especially in cities such as Podgorica
(Šístek, Dimitrovová, 2003, 176). In Montenegro the labors force inflow from other parts of the
territory of the former Yugoslavia (Pavlov et al, 2008). This concerns regular and irregular
migrant workers and responds to labor market shortages resulting from both a revival and
restructuring of the economy. This development is more or less confined to the coastal parts of
the country, whereas the northern and central areas are those most lagging behind and with a
high correlation between joblessness and poverty (Hoffer, 2011, 186).
The population number of Serbia is observed without Kosovo and Metohija Province,
because 2002 there was no census in it. From the last decade of 20th century, Serbia went through
different social and economic phases. Some have followed one another, and some were taking
place simultaneously. Political crisis, for example, was permanent. The primitive state
centralization, unreasonable policies with the international community as act of defiance, war
conflicts with the republics of former Yugoslavia, and finally with NATO resulted in the
isolation of the state, criminalization of society and the drastic impoverishment of the population
and followed by continuous violations of human rights (Stepanov and Lazar, 2002, 137). Richer
population has started to escape. From 1996 to 2005, 38% of total emigrants from ex Yugoslav
Republics, which belong to the Western Balkan, were from Serbia (Graph 1). During the
observed period, many people from ex Yugoslav Republics came to Serbia, passed through
Serbia or they left from Serbia (Kovačević et al, 2010, 66) (Table 2). As well as in Bosnia and
Herzegovina and in Montenegro, female were more numerous than males, but the gap, in favor
of women, increased.
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Lukic T.- Stojsavljevic R.- Durdev B.- Nad I.- Dercan B../ European Journal of Geography 3 2 6-23
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Croatia
FYR
Macedonia
Montenegro
Serbia
Total without
Kosovo
and
Metohija
Province
1600500
1538832
1595370
2193238
1960127
1762907
2465642
2301560
2296486
1006612
1007170
1023907
309104
314920
319635
4126623
3852071
3760759
1686000
1530443
1599047
2183795
1868270
1684246
2318623
2135900
2138022
1027352
1015377
1028815
305931
305225
310460
3992294
3645930
3560048
1990 or
1991
Albania
Women
(in %)
48.7
50.1
49.9
50.1
51.2
51.1
51.5
51.9
51.8
51.1
49.8
49.9
50.3
50.8
50.7
50.8
51.4
51.4
23215714
11701719
11513995
50.4
49.6
2001 or 2002 or
2003
Country
21475825
10974680
10501145
51.1
48.9
2007 or 2008 or
2009
Table 2. Population number and gender shares in Western Balkan countries, from the end of the 20th
century to the beginning of the 21st century.
21079702
10759064
10320638
51.0
49.0
Year
1990
2001
2009
1991
2002
2007
1991
2001
2008
1991
2002
2009
1991
2003
2009
1991
2002
2009
Total
population
3286500
3069275
3194417
4377033
3828397
3447153
4784265
4437460
4434508
2033964
2022547
2052722
615035
620145
630095
8118917
7498001
7320807
Women
Men
Men
(in %)
51.3
49.9
50.1
49.9
48.8
48.9
48.5
48.1
48.2
48.9
50.2
50.1
49.7
49.2
49.3
49.1
48.6
48.6
Source: Agencija za statistiku Bosne i Hercegovine. 2004. 2009. 2010. CROSTAT. 2010. Државен завод за статистика на
Република Македонија 2010a.b.c. MONSTAT. 2010a.b. Републички завод за статистику 2003. 2010. Савезни завод за
статистику. 1993
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5.
CONCLUSION
Depopulation is evident on the whole territory of West Balkan, especially in the last decade.
Trend of population number differ in every single country. There is no one uniform explanation.
The following facts are common for all countries. Different institutions are focused on the
different population phenomenon. They have collected different data. Hence, data are not
comparable, nor compatible. There has occurred a discrepancy from the planned concept of
interpretation of the work results due to limitations because there was no census of the
population in Kosovo. In addition, censuses of all Western Balkan countries have not been
carried out at the same time; there is no data for Albania on age structure, so the index of aging
could not have been calculated, or the age contingents of the 1991. Different migration data, in
various literature sources were performed by different methodologies which certainly prolonged
the comparison.
There are two factors which affect on the depopulation: negative natural increase, which is
consequence of bad age structure, as well as migrations. Migrations were provoked by civil
conflict, which was accompanied by increase in mortality rates and decrease in fertility.
Countries in the Western Balkans have traditionally been source of labor migrations to
destination in Europe and overseas. Large outflows occurred in the 1990 s after the collapse of
the Communist regime in Albania and the dissolution of Yugoslavia. Emigration from the region
is no longer primarily related to war, conflict and human rights abuses, but is a consequence of a
deterioration of the economy and a lack of appropriate jobs, especially for medium to highly
skilled workers. Most countries in the region are experiencing a gradual transition from unstable
migration patterns and large scale outflows to lower and more stable migration rates
(International Organization for Migration, 2009).
Consequences of depopulation will be reflected in the following economic and social
phenomena. Production of goods for “the third time” will be on the rise. Some sectors of the
economy, like tourism, will turn over old, and will develop spa tourism, cruises etc. Reform of
the pension system is unavoidable, for example as follows, raising the retirement age for state
pension or reducing the amount of state pension. Pensions will be less and many will turn to
additional pension insurance. Pensioners will have a growing political influence. The need to
care for elderly people will affect the conversion of surplus school in nursing homes; accelerate
the construction of nursing homes, as well as the removal of architectural barriers, encouraging
home delivery of goods. Successors will be richer, but will wait longer heritage. Emphasis will
be on lifelong learning and work at home.
Current global responses to adverse demographic trends in the modern world can be applied
to the Western Balkans in the forms of different measures. For example, states can apply
measures to extend life expectancy, or measures that restrict access to birth control, or measures
to increase immigration, or measures that seek to increase the fertility of positive incentives.
European policy wants to support local authorities in areas affected by depopulation by helping
the Structural Funds. Specifically, funds are helping small and medium enterprises, rural
cooperatives, protect regional nature and culture, develop skills and support equal opportunities.
Western Balkan countries want to integrate into the European Union. For them, union
experiences initiate inventions of political and financial solutions to fight against depopulation.
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The results of this study can be used in university teaching which addresses the problems and
the development of Europe, the Western Balkans, and Southeast Europe. They as indicators of
age represent scientific basis for the different topics of new researches. In the regions of the
Western Balkans new censuses are organized, and with their results these can be compared. With
that comparison the picture of depopulating processes, their scope, intensity etc. would be
completed. Special studies would be based on the desire to complete information about
possibilities to reduce the intensity of the process of depopulation methods applied in the region.
The results of the research open topics for research of other sciences, and related to the theme of
mutual influence of the depopulation process among the countries of the Western Balkans.
Acknowledgements
This paper is part of the project No. 114-451-1861/2011-02 financed by the Provincial Secretariat for
Science and Technological Development of the Vojvodina Province, Serbia. Also thanks to PhD
Dubravka Spevec, University of Zagreb, for the data which she provided.
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