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The conflict in Eastern Ukraine has been exceptionally resistant to resolution, with numerous mediation attempts resulting in broken agreements which have at best de-escalated the most intense fighting while failing to address underlying issues. Major obstacles to resolution are those core elements of grey zone conflict which we identified in our CGAI commentary of last month. These include situational ambiguity regarding the techniques utilized by belligerents against each other, as well as the uncertainty associated with the perception of the point of victory. A second obstacle is recalcitrance towards implementing the main provisions under the Minsk Agreements. For example, a recent law passed by Ukraine's parliament serves as an impediment to multilateral negotiations because it makes no provision for granting autonomy or holding elections in the Donbas region, both of which are part of the Minsk Agreements. The law unilaterally redraws Ukraine's position on Russia's involvement, the status of the two separatist territories and discounts previous mediation efforts and agreements facilitated by the OSCE, Germany and France.
The Minsk II Agreement, reached on February 12, 2015 between Ukraine and the separatist provinces in the east of the country, did not lead to an immediate ceasefire. The Russian-backed separatists intensified the fighting and succeeded in encircling and defeating the Ukrainian forces in the Debaltseve bulge. Russia is thus working to establish the separatist provinces as a significant actor and position them as leverage against Ukraine’s tilt to the West. Overall, Russia is working to create a “frozen conflict” in Ukraine, which can be heated up if the need arises to protect Russian interests. However, it is still too early to assess the effectiveness of Russia’s tactic, particularly in the context of the Ukrainian crisis. The economic sanctions have not been lifted, and in the meantime, Russia has expanded its competition with the West to other arenas, first and foremost the Middle East. It is stepping up its efforts to rehabilitate its status in the region, eroded in recent years because of the political turmoil in the Arab world.
The Copernicus Journal of Political Studies
The Minsk Agreements of 2015: a Forced Step or a Small Achievement of the Ukrainian Side within the Diplomatic Confrontation around the War in the Donbas2015 •
The article describes the formats in which the “Ukrainian question” has been discussed in various forums in the last year and defines various reasons why meetings within the format of the “normandy Quartet” was the most effective. he Ukrainian national interest considered, it analyzes the preferences and shortcomings of the Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements and the Declaration by the President of the Russian Federation, the President of Ukraine, the President of the French Republic and the Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany in support of the Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements adopted on February 12, 2015
Written by a team of authors, this paper takes an audit of the Minsk agreements and the situation with re-integrating the occupied territories in eastern Ukraine. It does so by looking at four distinct dimensions: foreign policy, economy, public opinion, and field realities. The last part of this research then builds on the findings in each of these areas and outlines a series of options Ukraine has for addressing the conflict.
The Ukrainian crisis has historical roots. There are different dimensions and causes of the conflict in Ukraine, which include socio-linguistic, economic, cultural and political aspects that can be traced back into history. The geostrategic significance of the region has not allowed the conflict to remain confined to Ukraine; it has involved various international actors, who want to create space for their own economic, political and strategic gains. At times, conflict resolution necessitates the involvement of international actors, for the conflict is either too difficult to resolve locally or it has international dimensions which cannot be ignored. Such is the case with the Ukrainian conflict. The aim of this paper is to comprehensively analyze the conflict in Ukraine and suggest possible options for conflict resolution. It is analyzed in the light of the Edward Azar's Protracted Social Conflict approach and the general conflict resolution approach.
European Security
OSCE Mediation Strategies in Eastern Ukraine and Nagorno-Karabakh: A Comparative Analysis2021 •
Even though the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has performed mediation efforts in Eurasian secessionist conflicts, its role has been neglected by mainstream international relations (IR) and conflict mediation literature. To fill in this gap, this article examines OSCE mediation strategies in two major secessionist conflicts: the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. Drawing on Zartman’s conceptual framework, this study posits that OSCE mediation strategies were constrained given its weak organisational capacity, lack of legal empowerment and adverse geopolitical environment. Due to these structural limitations, the OSCE can be said to have been more effective in containing conflict than contributing to conflict resolution. This article aims to contribute to conflict mediation research by highlighting the importance of context for understanding the role of international organisations (IOs) as mediators.
Journal of European Studies (JES)
Russia-Ukraine Imbroglio: An AppraisalThe impact of the political imbroglio involving Russia and Ukraine is complex and multi-layered. The proximity of Kiev and Moscow raises questions about the nature of relations between Ukraine and the West, which plays a vital role in managing the conflicts around the world to shape the future of the nations in political and economic dimensions. This study puts forth a proposition to observe in the background of the Russia-Ukraine war. The research has applied collaborative and bargaining approaches towards conflict management given by Thomas and Kilmann. The study recommends that Ukrainian identity, legitimacy of authority and sovereignty should be restored. It is also suggested that the crisis can be solved with sustained and well-intentioned negotiations for conflict resolution, immediate referendums under international surveillance in disputed territories, the complete demilitarisation and non-alignment of Ukraine. The research intends to observe to what extent Western powers pl...
In another attempt to resolve the pressing “Ukrainian Crisis”, the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany have agreed to a detailed package of measures in order to alleviate the ongoing war and extensive violence in the southeastern regions of Ukraine . Many news reporters and a significant number of international relations analysts have heavily commented upon/discussed the possibilities for success of the Minsk II agreement; all agree that at a very minimum it has brought to an end open hostilities in Ukraine. However, the future still remains uncertain.
2016 •
Although the Minsk process brought about a de-escalation of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine, not all of its 13 points have been implemented, including a ceasefire and withdrawal of heavy weaponry. In the absence of a military option, economic sanctions have become the core instrument of the EU and the US, to respond to Russia’s aggression. At the end of June 2016, when EU Heads of State and Government meet to discuss the extension of sanctions against Russia, they should bear in mind that Russia did not implement the commitments it took upon itself in the framework of the Minsk agreements. Given the persistent deadlock in the Ukraine crisis, the leaders of the EU ought to agree to prolong the sanctions against Russia, push for the renegotiation of the Minsk II agreement and widen the ‘Normandy format’ to include the US and bolster reforms in Ukraine.
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