The US Coast Guard recapitalization

ISSN 2446-7014 YEAR 6 • No 113 • APRIL 2ND, 2020 The Boletim Geocorrente is a fortnightly publication of the Conjuncture Assessment Group (NAC), linked to the Research and Post-Graduation Superintendency (SPP) at the Naval War College (EGN). NAC follows the International Conjuncture under the theoretical view of Geopolitics, in order to provide an alternative for the global demand for information, making it accessible and integrating society into defense and security issues. Moreover, it disseminates updated knowledge of international conflicts and crises to meet the Naval Staff’s demands. The Boletim Geocorrente aims to publish short articles concerning current issues about ten macro-regions in the globe: South America, North and Central America, Sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East and North Africa, Europe, Russia and former USSR, South Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia and Oceania, Arctic and Antarctica. Furthermore, some editions feature the “Special Topics” section. The research group connected to Boletim has members from different areas of knowledge, whose diverse backgrounds and experiences provide a comprehensive of the conjuncture and of the latest international issues. Thus, it seeks to identify the aggravating elements, motivational factors and contributors for the escalation of conflicts and ongoing crises as well as its impacts. PUBLICATION POLICIES AND PROCEDURES To publish in the Boletim, the author is required to be a researcher of the Current Geopolitics Group of NAC and submit his article containing a maximum of 350 words to the peer review assessment process. The texts published in this Boletim are the exclusive responsibility of the authors, not expressing the official opinion of EGN nor that of the Brazilian Navy. CONTACT Naval War College – Research and Post-Graduation Superintendency Av. Pasteur, 480 - Praia Vermelha – Urca - Postal Code: 22290-255 - Rio de Janeiro/RJ - Brazil PHONE: +55 (21) 2546-9394 | E-mail: geocorrentenac@gmail.com This and other editions of BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE, in portuguese and english, can be found at the Brazilian Naval War College Webpage and in our Google Drive Folder BRAZILIAN NAVAL WAR COLLEGE RESEARCH AND POST-GRADUATION SUPERINTENDENCY CONJUNCTURE ASSESSMENT GROUP BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE BRAZILIAN NAVAL WAR COLLEGE'S DIRECTOR EDITORIAL BOARD Rear Admiral Paulo César Bittencourt Ferreira EDITOR-IN-CHIEF Captain (Retd) Leonardo Faria de Mattos (Egn) RESEARCH AND POST-GRADUATION SUPERINTENDENT OF THE BRAZILIAN NAVAL WAR COLLEGE SCIENTIFIC EDITOR Captain (Retd) Francisco E. Alves de Almeida (Egn) Rear Admiral (Retd.) Marcio Magno de Farias Franco e Silva ASSISTANT EDITORS Liutenant (J.G.) Jansen Coli Calil N. Almeida de Oliveira (Egn) Jéssica Germano de Lima Silva (Egn) Noele de Freitas Peigo (Facamp) Pedro Allemand Mancebo Silva (Ufrj) GRAPHIC DESIGN Matheus Bruno Ferreira Alves Pereira (Ufrj) LAYOUT DEVELOPMENT Rodrigo Abreu de Barcellos Ribeiro (Ufrj) TRANSLATION Ana Carolina Vaz Farias (Ufrj) RESEARCHERS OF THE CONJUNCTURE ASSESSMENT GROUP SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SOUTH AMERICA Bruno Gonçalves (Ufrj) Franco Napoleão Aguiar de Alencastro Guimarães (Puc-Rio) Isadora Jacques de Jesus (Ufrj) João Victor Marques Cardoso (Unirio) Vivian de Mattos Marciano (Ufrj) Adriana Escosteguy Medronho (Ehess) Beatriz Mendes Garcia Ferreira (Ufrj) Carlos Henrique Ferreira da Silva Júnior (Ufrj) Gabriela de Assumpção Nogueira (Ufrj) João Felipe de Almeida Ferraz (Ufrj) Pedro Emiliano Kilson Ferreira (Unversidade de Santiago) NORTH & CENTRAL AMERICA ARCTIC & ANTARTIC Ana Carolina Vaz Farias (Ufrj) Ana Cláudia Ferreira da Silva (Ufrj) Carolina Côrtes Góis (Puc-Rio) Jéssica Pires Barbosa Barreto (Egn) Victor Cabral Ribeiro (Ufrj) Victor Eduardo Kalil Gaspar Filho (Egn) Ana Carolina Ferreira Lahr (Egn) Gabriele Marina Molina Hernandez (Uff) Laila Neves Lorenzon (Ufrj) Pedro Allemand Mancebo Silva (Ufrj) Raphaella da Silva Dias Costa (Ufrj) EUROPE EAST ASIA Ariane Dinalli Francisco (Universität Osnabrück) Glayce Kerolin Rodrigues Maximiano (Ufrj) Matheus Souza Galves Mendes (Egn) Melissa Rossi (Suffolk University) Nathália Soares de Lima do Vale (Uerj) Thaïs Abygaëlle Dedeo (Université de Paris 3) João Pedro Ribeiro Grilo Cuquejo (Ibmec) Marcelle Torres Alves Okuno (Ibmec) Philipe Alexandre Junqueira (Uerj) Rodrigo Abreu de Barcellos Ribeiro (Ufrj) Vinicius Guimarães Reis Gonçalves (Ufrj) MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA RUSSIA & FORMER USSR Ana Luiza Colares Carneiro (Ufrj) André Figueiredo Nunes (Eceme) Dominique Marques de Souza (Ufrj) Pedro da Silva Albit Penedo (Ufrj) Shakila de Sousa Ahmad (Ufrj) José Gabriel de Melo Pires (Ufrj) Luiza Gomes Guitarrari (Ufrj) Pedro Mendes Martins (Eceme) Pérsio Glória de Paula (Uff) SOUTHEAST ASIA & OCEANIA SOUTH ASIA Matheus Bruno Ferreira Alves Pereira (Ufrj) Thayná Fernandes Alves Ribeiro (Uff) Vinícius de Almeida Costa (Egn) João Miguel Villas-Boas Barcellos (Ufrj) Marina Soares Corrêa (Ufrj) Rebeca Vitória Alves Leite (Egn) SPECIAL TOPICS Alessandra Dantas Brito (Egn) Louise Marie Hurel Silva Dias (London School of Economics) 2 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 113 • April | 2020 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE INDEX SOUTH AMERICA EAST ASIA Anti-submarine drill in the South China Sea ..................................................... 10 Launching of destroyer SS Maya and the Japanese war industry ................... 11 Argentine foreign policy and the overseas sovereignty claim............................ 5 NORTH & CENTRAL AMERICA The US Coast Guard recapitalization ............................................................... 5 SOUTH ASIA India and France carry out joint naval exercise in the Indian Ocean ................ 11 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Submarine cables: Communication as a strategy in Africa ............................... 6 South African economy: Between blackouts, recessions and COVID-19.......... 7 SOUTHEAST ASIA & OCEANIA Indonesia and the sustainable energy future ................................................... 12 EUROPE Italy and Spain suffer as cooperation quivers.................................................... 7 ARCTIC & ANTARCTICA Antarctica, both free and vulnerable to COVID-19 ........................................... 13 MIDDLE EAST AND NORTHERN AFRICA Piracy in the Strait of Hormuz and implications for the global market ............... 8 The threats to Iraq in face of USA and Iran aggressions ................................... 9 SPECIAL TOPICS Impacts of the novel coronavirus on global maritime trade ............................. 14 Selected Articles & Defense News.......................... 14 RUSSIA & FORMER-USSR Bangladesh and the nuclear cooperation with Russia ...................................... 9 The Russian Space Sector in 2020: Commercial challenges and strategic potential ............................................................................................................ 10 Geocorrente Calendar............................................. 14 References.............................................................. 15 Risks Map............................................................... 16 TOP 10 GLOBAL RISKS Without considering the COVID-19 pandemic High Risk For more informations on the criteria used, visit page 17. Medium Risk 3 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 113 • April | 2020 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE COVID-19 MONITORING THE 10 COUNTRIES WITH THE MOST CASES Data according to the WHO "Situation report - 72", published on April 1st, 2020. Countries with more than 20 thousand confirmed cases Countries with confirmed cases between 10 and 20 thousand Source: World Health Organization COUNTRIES MONITORING Country Total cases Total new cases (last 24h) Total logged deaths Population (2018) UNITED STATES 163.199 22.559 2.850 327.167.000 ITALY 105.792 4.053 12.430 60.431.000 SPAIN 94.417 9.222 8.189 46.723.000 CHINA 82.631 86 3.321 1.392.000.000 GERMANY 67.366 5.453 732 82.927.000 FRANCE 51.477 7.500 3.514 66.987.000 IRAN 44.606 3.111 2.898 81.800.000 UNITED KINGDOM 25.154 3.009 1.789 66.488.000 SWITZERLAND 16.108 696 373 8.516.000 TURKEY 13.531 2.704 214 82.319.000 Sources: World Health Organization; World Bank 4 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 113 • April | 2020 SOUTH AMERICA Argentine foreign policy and the overseas sovereignty claim Carlos Henrique Ferreira I n March 2020, President Alberto Fernández’s speech in the Argentine Congress gave strength to a historic claim. The current president announced three draft bills to reinforce the foreign policy engagement in the sovereignty of the overseas territories: the creation of the National Council of Affairs Referred to the Malvinas Islands, South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands, the demarcation of the outer limit of Argentina's continental shelf and the modification of the Federal Fisheries. In addition to the proposal of the new National Council, two diplomats who were involved in the construction and implementation of the Foradori-Duncan Communiqué (Boletim 106) were called back, as a message of the agreement review posture. For the other proposals, Fernandéz will count on the first of the four Gowind class Offshore Patrol Vessels (French corvettes), acquired by his predecessor. Thus, resources for the protection of its Continental Shelf will increase, which, by UN approval, will expand from 200 to 350 nautical miles, and will also include the maritime zone of the territories in dispute with the United Kingdom, but without exercising rights over the island administered by the English government. Fernández's second and third projects will also approach the economic issue of the regions, where each one organizes its own way. The Falklands’ government grants permits for foreign boats to exploit the region's maritime resources, however, given the recognition of the Argentine maritime area extent, this exploration is seen as illegal. The losses from illegal fishing are estimated at US$ 14 billion per year for Argentina, while the same activity corresponds to about 40% of the Falklands’ GDP. Furthermore, in February 2020, while the island’s government announced a new port construction to replace the current one, the Argentine government wants to update the fine for illegal fishing, which has remained unchanged since 1998, there was a parity for the exchange rate for the Argentine peso with the US dollar. Unlike its predecessor, Fernandez and his cabinet conduct national sentiment towards the region to maintain the soundness of its foreign policy for overseas sovereignty, turning it into a state policy. Fonte: InfoBae NORTH & CENTRAL AMERICA The US Coast Guard recapitalization Jéssica Barreto I n March 2020, the United States Coast Guard’s Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) had its production change approved by the chief acquisition officer responsible for the program. Thus, the program, which would initially equip only three of the new National Security Cutter (NSC), has now been authorized to equip all NSCs that are operational. With the contract signed in June 2018 with INSITU Inc., the company that turned to the military branch during the Iraq War period in 2003, and which has been a Boeing subsidiary since 2008, the UAS program consists of unmanned aircraft that increases the autonomy of the Force and expands their maritime situational awareness, increasing the Coast Guard’s surveillance range. This approval aims to speed up the delivery of NSC vessels with this capacity, presenting an aggressive strategy, so » 5 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 113 • April | 2020 that all the vessels are delivered by the end of 2020. The US Coast Guard is the main force responsible for the maritime security and protection of ports and the country’s waterways. As such, it is an organization with broad legal authority, being the only military arm associated with the country's Department of Homeland Security. However, despite having many vessels, most of these assets are at the end of their useful life. Thus, one of the strategic priorities of the Force, in addition to intensifying its activities in the region of the Poles, is to revitalize its surface means, updating them for the missions entrusted in the current century. Another example of this strategic priority is the NSC program that is replacing the High Embrance Cutters vessels, which have been in operation since the 1960s. The project includes the construction of 11 vessels capable of patrolling the most demanding marine environments and acting as a command and control center for various missions. The ninth NSC was baptized in late February 2020 and is scheduled to be delivered in the middle of this year. Two of the ships were already delivered, five are already fully equipped with UAS capacity and the other three are under construction, with delivery due to 2020. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Submarine cables: Communication as a strategy in Africa A lthough they have been there for many years, few know the relevance of submarine cables to the globalized world. Currently, they are responsible for more than 99% of international communication. Being expensive and strategic constructions, investment and security are highlights on the agenda. Africa's economic, population and connectivity growth has expanded the capital allocation to this branch on the continent. The main developers are the African Development Bank and the World Bank, which sponsored respectively the EASSy system line (Eastern Africa Submarine System), in 2010, which covers the entire East African coast, from South Africa to Sudan; and ACE (Africa Coast to Europe) in 2012, which runs from South Africa to France. However, the complexity of the projects sometimes makes them difficult for countries in the region to sponsor and design by themselves. Huawei Maritime Networks, the maritime arm of Chinese Huawei Technologies and other Chinese operators have recently designed some submarine cable communication lines in Africa. In September 2018, SAIL (South Atlantic Inter Link) was inaugurated, connecting the city of Fortaleza, Northeast of Brazil, to Kribi, in Cameroon. It is expected that two other projects are completed by 2021, linking Pakistan, Africa and Europe. Not only China, but also the United States are interested in promoting this technology in region. The great American technology companies are the main content producers and submarine cables funders around the world, representing half of worldwide traffic request in 2016. Google is expected to open its line on Bruno Gonçalves the continent in 2020, called Equiano. However, they still face difficulties in investing in Africa because there are no major local companies for cooperation. Such investments are not limited to the economy. The protection of communication is an abiding interest, since espionage is a risk. Africans become vulnerable to large investing powers, as the developer of subsea communications systems controls information. There should be, therefore, a movement to build their own systems, making these nations stronger and more independent. Source: Anciens Marins 6 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 113 • April | 2020 South African economy: Between blackouts, recessions and COVID-19 Vivian Mattos S ince the beginning of the Zuma government in South Africa, in 2009, the country has been experiencing several periods of economic difficulty, causing the first three post-apartheid recessions. Currently, under the leadership of Cyril Ramaphosa, the country is experiencing a moment of strong economic recession, deterioration of public finances and an unemployment rate that approaches 30%. According to South Africa's Statistical Department, GDP contracted 1.4% in the last quarter of 2019 and 7 of the country's top 10 sectors shrank. Only the financial (2.7%), mining (1.8%) and services (0.7%) sectors grew. Allied to the numerous political and social problems, the main driver of this scenario in the most industrialized economy in Africa has been the inefficiency of Eskom, the state company responsible for the production and distribution of 90% of the country's energy, in providing electricity for residential and industrial areas, causing a series of blackouts that have caused a deep impact on the productive capacity of the main South African industrial sectors. Furthermore, Eskom has survived for the past 10 years under mismanagement and several cases of corruption linked to the high echelons of the ANC (African National Congress), governing party, which today are reflected in the form of productive force loss through the closing of power plants and exorbitant debts that damage the country's coffers. In line with the world scenario, the South African economy will also be severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. On March 16th, Ramaphosa declared a national state of disaster in an attempt to create rapid and coordinated responses to mitigate the transmission of the virus, given that it is currently the African country with the highest number of people infected by the disease. In addition, the country has a complicating factor in terms of public health management, as it has a large number of people with immune-debilitating diseases such as tuberculosis (450.000 people annually) and AIDS (about 7.7 million infected), which are considered to be COVID-19 risk groups. Thus, if Ramaphosa found it difficult to articulate the country's sectors effectively to strengthen the South African economy, his challenge will be intensified with the increase in the numbers of COVID-19 cases in the national territory and with the implementation of isolation measures, which will consequently contribute to the country's economic downturn. EUROPE Italy and Spain suffer as cooperation quivers Nathália do Vale "I t’s the most difficult crisis we’ve faced since the post-war period”. That was how Italy’s Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte, described his country’s situation when announcing the mandatory closure of nonessential businesses due to the COVID-19 crisis. To date, Italy has more than 100.000 cases and around 12.000 deaths, being the most affected country in Europe. At the beginning of 2020, forecasts projected a 0.4% growth for the Italian economy but now the third largest economy in the eurozone may face its fourth recession in a decade and a contraction of up to 2%, in a country where tourism amounts to 6% of the GDP. Equally critical is the Spanish situation, the second most affected country in the continent, with 94.000 cases and 8.000 deaths. Criticized for its incapacity to assist Italy at the beginning of the crisis, the European Union (EU) tries to make itself relevant in a scenario where urgency brings states to increase unilateral initiatives. While the European Central Bank has announced a 870 million euro aid to eurozone states and relaxation of fiscal policy constraints and the European Commission has prohibited restrictions to sale and export of personal protection equipment, as Germany and France had done, a significant measure at intergovernmental level is yet to be announced. Mandatory lockdowns are opposed to the free circulation principles that guide the bloc and their long-term maintenance casts doubts on the feasibility of a “Sovereign Europe” much idealized by French President Emmanuel Macron. In the light of prospects for a global economic recession and uncertainty regarding the future of this pandemic, it is hard to imagine a way out for the economic crisis soon to follow that does not involve any degree of joint articulation of EU member states, even if the recent experience may bring to a more central role of nation states in the bloc. On the other hand, for Defense, besides the cancelling of joint military exercises and the deployment of forces to control lockdowns and for medical assistance, the main side effect may be financial: how to justify budget increases for the military in face of an unprecedented public health crisis, coupled with an economic recession. We will certainly see a call to readdress NATO’s relevance, after it was declared ‘brain-dead” by Macron in 2019. Conciliating cooperation and autonomy will be the main European challenge in the post-pandemic world. 7 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 113 • April | 2020 MIDDLE EAST & NORTHERN AFRICA Piracy in the Strait of Hormuz and implications for the global market T he trade through the Strait of Hormuz is historically permeated by rooted disputes in political and economic interests. Regional insecurity creates instability in the commercial maritime routes that surround the Arabian Peninsula, causing threats to the global oil trade, mainly on the Strait of Hormuz, where 35% of oil and one third of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the world travels daily. When considering the aforementioned regional characteristics, one issue is addressed as a determining factor for this insecurity: piracy. A recent study released by the Duke University analyzed the implications of piracy in the Strait of Hormuz against tankers and their effects on the Persian Gulf countries, mainly when it comes to fossil fuels expors. Due to the increase in piracy cases in the region and the growing maritime insecurity in face of conflicts, there is an increase in security spending on international transport and the consequent reduction, on average, of 7.5% vessel per year, which remains up to two years after each attack. The study claims that the impact of piracy affects crude oil and refined oil (RPP) exporting countries Ana Luiza Colares differently. In the first case, countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are not as affected, due to the high concentration of global production in the region and the low price-demand elasticity for crude oil. Accordingly, an increase in transport security costs does not have as significant impacts on demand as in the case of RPP. This, in turn, is traded more competitively between markets (given the existence of more than 700 refineries globally), which makes it more sensitive to cost increases. The impacts on economies like Bahrain and Kuwait, whose RPP exports make up a large share of their GDP, are much greater. However, in addition to the instability of trade routes, another factor threatens exports from oil-exporting countries: COVID-19, which has generated a drop in demand of approximately 90.000 barrels per day compared to 2019. In addition to the steep drop in oil prices, it remains to be seen how oil rates in the Middle East will be affected by the crisis that plagues, among several countries, the largest global economies and, consequently, the main commodity importers. Source: Marine Vessel Traffic 8 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 113 • April | 2020 The threats to Iraq in face of USA and Iran aggressions Pedro Albit O th n March 11 , bombs hit Camp Taji base, in Iraq, killing one British soldier and two Americans. As a response, on the following day, the USA bombed Kata’ib Hezbollah positions, an Iraqi militia linked to the Iranian regime. These base attacks on Iraqi soil have been happening since January, when Iran revenged General Qasem Soleimani assassination by the USA. These continuous attacks show how fragile Iraq’s territory is amidst this conflict. There were many demonstrations in Iraq in 2019 demanding the end of foreign interference in the country, both from the USA and Iran. After Soleimani’s murder, the Iraqi Parliament voted for the withdrawal of foreign troops in the country, which President Trump denied. However, while the US and Iran avoid a direct conflict, Iraq suffers not only for being in the center of this dispute, but also for having a wide range of religious and population diversity – the country is divided between Shiite Muslims, Sunni and Kurds - which explains the presence of both American and Iranian supporters there. Besides the violence caused by a disguised proxy war, the COVID-19 pandemic also influences the USA-IraqIran chessboard. Fearful that the virus’ great impact in Iran is spread to the whole Middle East, on March 20th, the USA announced the withdrawal from a base close to the Iraqi-Syrian border, while the same is expected for two more bases in the following weeks. Furthermore, it is notable that COVID-19 may be used as a strategy in the conflict, since Iran is one of the countries with the highest number of cases and the USA is keeping the economic sanctions, which can be seen as a strategy to weaken the Islamic regime. Even if the USA completely leaves Iraq, there’s no guarantee of stability in the country, as Iran would try to boost its influence to strengthen the axis Hezbollah (Lebanon)-Syria-IraqIran, running counter to the interests of Iraqi Sunnis and Kurds. RUSSIA & FORMER USSR Bangladesh and the nuclear cooperation with Russia O nd n March 22 , the Bangladeshi government signed with Rosatom - Russia's state nuclear agency - a series of agreements that facilitate the construction of the Roopur nuclear power plant. The bilateral agreement for the creation of this plant was originally signed in 2011, with the official contract of US$ 12.5 billion signed in 2015. In addition, Russia has agreements for the construction of nuclear plants with Egypt, Turkey, among others, according to information from Rosatom. Bangladesh is a small country in South Asia between China and India, with an estimated population of 100 million. According to data from the World Bank, the country has been growing at a rate of 6.5% per year and, therefore, the country's extreme poverty fell from 44.2% in 1991 to 14.8% in 2016-2017. For this reason, this process of socioeconomic growth has caused energy crises in the country, increasing the demand for new sources of energy. Consequently, the country has sought to develop this sector, reducing its dependence on oil. For its part, Russia is taking advantage of a major Pedro Martins commercial and geopolitical opportunity. Commercially, the nuclear deal with Bangladesh is yet another source of funds for the country, which still suffers from Western sanctions due to Ukraine's events in 2014, as well as an effort to reduce the Russian economy's dependence on oil exports. During the Cold War, the Soviet (now Russian) nuclear sector developed intensely because of the arms race with the United States. In the post-Cold War, this expertise in the nuclear sector has been a source of resources for the country. Given that Bangladesh is located between two powers - China and India - this position is of geopolitical importance for this trade contract with Russia. Thus, commercial and economic relations are often imbued with geopolitical considerations, making the separation between these two aspects difficult. More than that, Russia's approach to Bangladesh shows how this interdependence of commercial and geopolitical interests can be used in a national development project. 9 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 113 • April | 2020 The Russian Space Sector in 2020: Commercial challenges and strategic potential Pérsio Glória de Paula O n March 21st 2020, the Russian space agency (Roscosmos) successfully launched a Soyuz-2.1b rocket, with more than 30 satellites from the company OneWeb, from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. This was the fourth launch by the Russian agency in 2020 and demonstrates the commercial potential and the importance of the space sector for the country's economy. However, the Russian market share in the global launch services has declined considerably over the past five years. This drop in participation results both from the rise of private launch companies, especially American ones, such as SpaceX, as well as from the increase of activities and autonomy of other actors, who were previously Russian clients, such as China. This situation has hampered Russia's civilian space projects, whose budget is usually tied to the commercial performance of Roscosmos and its subsidiaries. Despite this, the country is seeking reinsertion and innovation in the sector such as the construction of a new launch center in the Amur region, the Vostochny, and the creation of new rocket families. Among them are the Soyuz-5, which is expected to replace the Soyuz-2, and the super-heavy rockets Angara-5, which replaced the problematic Proton heavy rockets. Another factor that may benefit Russian competitiveness in the civilian sector is the growing military importance of space activities. This is due to the withdrawal of the United States from the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) and the creation of the United States Space Force (USSF). Russian authorities already anticipate further militarization of the segment and an eventual response from the Kremlin is likely to lead to mobilization of the civilian sector. In addition, there is an ongoing discussion on the possibilities of reusing decommissioned intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) as satellite launch vehicles such as the R-36M2 “Voevoda” (SS-18 “Satan”), and the possible use of new military missiles technologies in the civilian rocket business. These approaches could give new impetus to the technological competitiveness of the industry. The country also announced that it plans to launch two Angara-5 in 2020. However, the segment, as well as the economy in general, does not expect good results for this year, due to the negative effects of the Coronavirus pandemic. EAST ASIA Anti-submarine drill in the South China Sea Vinícius de Almeida Costa T he South China Sea is an area of intense international dispute, therefore, presents intense military activity. The most recent episode of such activity consisted of aircraft drills developed by the PLA Navy (Popular Liberation Army Navy) in the waters of the region, which occurred in the first week of March 2020. Chinese aircraft drill consisted of training two antisubmarine patrol aircraft. Such patrol aircraft developed a series of maneuvers to detect, hunt and combat the presence of submarines in the region, seeking to improve the training of military personnel and aircraft. The Chinese drill takes place immediately after another series of military maneuvers, this time, developed by the US Navy a week earlier. On that occasion, the military components that Washington deployed for the region - Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group, the America Expeditionary Strike Group and the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit - developed large-scale amphibious assault exercises in the vicinity of the South China Sea, which caused intense protests by Beijing. In addition to this drill, in the previous month, another episode that generated friction between these two nations was the accusation and protest by Washington regarding the use of a laser by a Chinese destroyer against an American patrol aircraft near Guam. In view of this growing military activity in the South China Sea, the importance of the submarine in the Chinese maritime strategy for the region is clear. The South China Sea is a region of intense marine traffic, is shallow and island-dotted, an ideal area for the use of conventional diesel-electric submarines. Therefore, it is imperative that China dominates the Submarine War (better and perhaps the only way to oppose an American Strike Group), while it needs to improve itself in the antisubmarine war to defend itself from underwater threats of opposing nations, especially Japan, which has numerous modern diesel-electric submarines, and to guarantee its interests in the region. 10 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 113 • April | 2020 Launching of destroyer SS Maya and the Japanese war industry João Pedro Grilo O th n March 19 , the commissioning of the first Maya class destroyer took place in the city of Yokohama, an enhanced version of the Atago class, which will become part of the Japanese Fleet Escort Force, based at Yokosuka base. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the event happened behind closed doors, accompanied only by the Minister of Defense, Taro Kono, and a few guests. This ship class, which will have a second unit in 2021, the SS Haguro, is equipped with the new Aegis Combat System Baseline 9 anti-missile defense system (known as J7 in Japan), enabling the ship to carry out anti-missile and air defense missions simultaneously. Another novelty of the system is the use of the new ballistic missile interceptor Standard Missile-3 IIA, the result of technological cooperation between Japan and the United States, which allows targets to be shot down at short and medium distances. Finally, the use of American sensor network called Cooperative Engagement Capability (CEC) is noteworthy, which allows vessels and aircrafts with this system to share surveillance and targeting data. In face of the rapid increasing regional tensions, the technological advance of rivals such as China and North Korea, and the recent pressures suffered by the President Donald Trump’s administration, Japanese military spending has increased at a growing pace since Abe's return to power in 2012, reaching a value record of US$ 48.6 billion, if the government proposal is approved in Parliament. The increase in defense expenditures in accord with the creation of a coherent policy for the military technologies development, manifested with the creation of the Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Agency (ATLA) in 2015, has been heating up the Japanese warfare market. Within this segment, it is interesting to highlight the domestic industry development, as a result of increased investments in the area of research and development and the intensification of technological cooperation programs with other countries, the result of which is the ability to produce vessels such as the Mayaclass destroyer. Despite this progress, it is believed that the country remains dependent on US technology due to the current regional tensions, which need rapid responses, and the high national production cost. SOUTH ASIA India and France carry out joint naval exercise in the Indian Ocean Rebeca Leite I n February 2020, India and France carried out a joint naval patrol in the region of the Réunion Island, a French overseas territory in the Indian Ocean, for the first time. From the perspective of the “Neighborhood First” strategy, this initiative is a consequence of activities known as Coordinated Patrol (CORPAT), which seeks increased maritime cooperation. CORPAT's primary objective is to ensure the prerogatives of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). In this context, the Indian Navy also undertakes other joint surveillance exercises, restricted to its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), with the Maldives, Seychelles and Mauritius. Until then, India carried out CORPATs only with neighboring states. Given this, regarding to the Indian maritime projection, this unprecedented activity reveals New Delhi's interest in strengthening ties with partners that can facilitate its expansion in the Indian and IndoPacific Oceans, especially in the range between the East African coast and the Strait of Malacca. Thus, France is seen as the ideal partner, since this relationship has matured over the years, mainly in the Defense sector. It is worth mentioning that India is building conventional submarines of the French Scorpéne class. On the other hand, this interaction also addresses concerns about the growing Chinese presence on the East African coast. Between India and France there is a common sense to guarantee the freedom of navigation and the safety of maritime communication lines as stated by UNCLOS. Therefore, while China sends nuclear submarines to the African coast, both countries reiterate the need to safeguard the aforementioned principles. This “new” vision of India for the Indian Ocean, which is seeking multilateralism to achieve maritime security goals at the expense of the old approach that criticized any extra-regional power in the region, demonstrates a more pragmatic position regarding the security of its maritime space as well as using strategic partners » 11 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 113 • April | 2020 to reach new spaces and strengthen their maritime Ocean, as well as carrying out exercises that envisage the capabilities. Therefore, the partnership with France aims strengthening of its Navy in partnership with countries at India's interest in expanding its presence in the Indian that have similar views about the maritime environment. Source: Uspa24 SOUTHEAST ASIA & OCEANIA Indonesia and the sustainable energy future Thayná Fernandes A t the beginning of March, the Indonesian government announced its goal of doubling natural gas production by 2030, reaching 12.300 cubic feet a day, through pipeline construction projects. The news was published shortly after the discovery of two large reserves of this resource, a fact that is lined with Jakarta's purpose of becoming the world's leading producer of natural gas, a title that currently belongs to Australia. The exploration of hydrocarbons in Indonesian territory dates to 1885, when there was the first commercial discovery of oil reserves. The country was a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is the largest exporter of natural gas in Southeast Asia, the fourth largest exporter of coal in the world and is one of the major producers of biofuels. In 2006, the National Energy Policy was launched, establishing that by 2025 the ideal diversification of energy mix should be less than 20% oil, more than 30% gas, more than 33% coal and, respectively, more than 5% of biofuels, geothermal and other renewable sources, in addition to 2% of liquefied coal. In recent years, major investments have been made in the oil and gas sectors. However, with the impacts of the 2009 financial crisis, competition from shale gas and Japan's recent decision to reopen its nuclear plants, the country's oil and gas sector has been struggling to attract 12 » BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 113 • April | 2020 foreign investment. With the fourth largest population in the world and the growing demand for energy, mainly in residential areas, the state has been striving to diversify its energy mix. An example is the recently launched “B30” plan, with the palm oil biodiesel production, which will reduce fossil fuel imports by approximately US$ 4.5 billion, which demonstrates the search to establish renewable energies as the core of future production and its independence in the sector. Countries that intend to become great leaders and world references in the energy mix, a segment of crucial importance for the whole globe, are moving faster towards the strengthening and establishment of fuels and renewable energy sources. Source: Statista ARCTIC & ANTARCTICA Antarctica, both free and vulnerable to COVID-19 Gabriele Hernandez E very single continent on Earth has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, facing the imminent collapse of their healthcare systems, except one: Antarctica. The frozen continent, due to its high isolation rate, did not register hitherto any confirmed case of the disease. Confined in research stations spread around 14 million square kilometers, most of which is concentrated along the coastal regions of the continent and small islands, the researchers and military who inhabit temporarily the region did not have contact with the pandemic at its most critical moment of contagion. The Antarctic summer occurs From October to February, a time when the research stations are in their full activity and in high personnel numbers, due to a more friendly weather. Between March and October, nonetheless, winter turns life conditions extreme, some stations are temporarily closed, and a limited amount of people are confined in permanent research stations, which work year-round. Not every country can afford a research station working permanently, requiring high costs and huge commitment with Antarctic research. About 1.100 people work in Antarctic during winter, distributed between 41 stations that do not stop their research activity at any no moment of the year. On summer, adding more 36 seasonal research stations, the continent can harbor up to 5.000 people. Despite its isolation, it is still unknown how the virus, and mostly, the ones affected by it, would behave under extremely low temperatures that can reach an average -49°C on winter. The contamination risk in such a remote region exposes the lack of medical structure to assist the ill, besides the limited space in which the staff is subjected to live, inside small metallic structures equipped for a variety of research. One main possible risk is the American McMurdo Research Station, the largest on the continent, which had its crew changed last March, when the winter team replaces the summer team. Although the new residents are scanned in search of any pandemic symptoms and going through isolation periods, they are not properly tested for the disease. Even while enjoying relative ease concerning the outbreak, life on the continent reinforces the degree of vulnerability that its inhabitants face as a great effort to be in Antarctica. 13 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 113 • April | 2020 SPECIAL TOPICS Impacts of the novel coronavirus on global maritime trade Alessandra Brito O n March 11st 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the novel coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19). The spread of the virus has subjected the entire world to an unprecedented situation. To slow the spread of the disease and mitigate its impacts, travelling is being restricted and borders are being closed. Thus, maritime trade and its related activities have been largely affected, as ports are being closed and ships are prohibited from docking. However, the economic impacts of these restrictions need to be managed in order to avoid a collapse in supply lines. About 90% of the cargo volume in international trade is made by sea. However, the crew, essential for the maintenance of the sector, is being prevented from travelling to embark and the changes in crew shifts are becoming increasingly complex. The Merchant Navy is vitally important for trade, especially during conflicts and crises like the ongoing. During World War II, the merchant fleet was called by the then US President Franklin D. Roosevelt "the fourth arm of defense", delivering troops, supplies and equipment. The maritime class, which sometimes moves internationally for shipments, is crucial for global trade and the integrity of supply chains. Recently it was sent an open letter of the global maritime transport to UN agencies, emphasizing the need for seafarers to receive appropriate exemptions from any transit travel restrictions related to shipments, aiming for maintaining maritime supply chains in operation worldwide. The Secretary General of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), Kitack Lim, released a statement in order to find solutions to the problems faced by the sector. According to its position, defeating the virus should be the priority, however, highlighting the need to maintain global trade in a safe, protected and ecologically correct manner. In the global scenario of uncertainties caused by the pandemic, the imposition of restrictions and obstacles to maritime trade and its actors could have large-scale consequences for the world economy, affecting several exporting countries, causing shortages for importing countries and instability in commodity and goods prices of the most varied types. Source: Wilhelmsen 14 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 113 • April | 2020 SELECTED ARTICLES & DEFENSE NEWS ► A Greater Depression? PROJECT SYNDICATE, Nouriel Roubini ► Merkel’s moment of truth POLITICO, Matthew Karnitschnig ► The Thucydides’ Trap: the Avoidable Destiny Between the US and China MODERN DIPLOMACY, Yuan Jiang ► The Great Game Of Gas ISPI, Alberto Belladonna, Alessandro Gili ► The Coronavirus Could Reshape Global Order FOREIGN AFFAIRS, Kurt M. Campbell E Rush Doshi ► The Multilateral System Still Cannot Get Its Act Together on COVID-19 CFR, Stewart M. Patrick ► A Misguided Bid to Topple Maduro as the Virus Looms INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUPt ► NATO’s 30th Member, At Last: Republic of North Macedonia STANFORD, Rose Gottemoeller GEOCORRENTE CALENDAR APRIL MAY Victory Day Military Parade 09 Moscow Elections in Poland 10 Presidential elections in the Dominican Republic 17 Presidential 15-16 20 Iraq Elections Belt and Road Summit, in Dubai 15 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 113 • April | 2020 REFERENCES • Argentine foreign policy and the overseas sovereignty claim CHABAY, Ezequiel M. El Gobierno endurecerá sanciones a la pesca ilegal para “acorralar” la economía kelper en Malvinas. El Cronista, March 5th, 2020. Accessed on: March 11th, 2020. MERCOPRESS. Falklands will have a new port in three/four years; FIG can afford the “indicative pricing”. Mercopress, February 21st, 2020. Accessed on: March 14th, 2020. • The Russian Space Sector in 2020: Commercial challenges and strategic potential Russia launches OneWeb satellites, despite coronavirus pandemic. Tass, March 21st, 2020. Accessed on: March 28th, 2020. 20 space industry predictions for 2020. Space News, February 26th, 2020. Accessed on: March 28th, 2020. • Anti-submarine drill in the South China Sea PATTERSON, James. South China Sea Tensions: China Ups the Ante • The US Coast Guard recapitalization With Anti-Submarine Air Drills. Internation Business Times, March 21st, UNITED STATES. Small UAS for NSC acquisition reaches milestone. 2020. Accessed on: March 28th, 2020. United States Coast Guard. March 18th, 2020. Accessed on: March 26th, NG, Teddy. Chinese naval planes conduct anti-submarine drills in South 2020. China Sea. South China Morning Post, March 21st, 2020. Accessed on: UNITED STATES. Coast Guard christens ninth national security cutter. March 28th, 2020. United States Coast Guard. March 18th, 2020. Accessed on: March 26th, 2020. • Launching of destroyer SS Maya and the Japanese war industry • Submarine cables: Communication as a strategy in TAKAHASHI, Kosuke. Japan commissions first Maya-Class missile Africa destroyer. Jane´s Defense Weekly, March 19th, 2020. Accessed on: FRANCE. Les géants du web à la conquête de la toile africaine. Navy March 24th, 2020. Strategic Studies Center, March 2020. Accessed on: March 19th, 2020. BOSACK, Michael. What to make of the record defense budget. Japan GRIFFITHS, James. The global internet is powered by vast undersea Times, 2020. Accessed on: March 25th, 2020. cables. But they're vulnerable. CNN, July 26th, 2019. Accessed on: March 27th, 2020. • India and France carry out joint naval exercise in the Indian Ocean • South African economy: Between blackouts, PERI, Dinakar. In a first, India, France conduct joint patrols from Reunion recessions and COVID-19 Island. The Hindu, March 21st, 2020. Accessed on: March 26th, 2020. SOUTH AFRICA. Economy slips into recession. Department of Statistics RAJAGOPALAN, Rajeswari P. What’s Behind the Rising India-France South Africa, March 3rd, 2020. Accessed on: March 19th, 2020. Maritime Activity in the Indo-Pacific?. The Diplomat, March 26th, 2020. SCHNEIDER, Victoria. Tension, fear as South Africa steps up coronavirus Accessed on: March 27th, 2020. fight. Aljazeera, March 18th, 2020. Accessed on: March 20th, 2020. • Indonesia and the sustainable energy future • Italy and Spain suffer as cooperation quivers HARSONO, Norman. Indonesia aims to double gas production by 2030 BURAS, Piotr. Resilliance before reinvention: the EU's role in the with major projects in pipeline. The Jakarta Post, March 9th, 2020. Covid-19 crisis. European Council on Foreign Relations, March 24th, Accessed on: March 11st, 2020. 2020. Accessed on: March 26th, 2020. Oil and Gas in Indonesia: Investment and Taxation Guide. Price GHIGLIONE, David; ROMEI, Valentina. Italy faces mounting economic Waterhouse e Coopers, September 2019. Accessed on: March 12nd, damage from corona virus. Financial Times, March 12nd, 2020. Accessed 2020. on: March 27th, 2020. • Antarctica, both free and vulnerable to COVID-19 • Piracy in the Strait of Hormuz and implications for MELLEN, Ruby; PITRELLI, Stefano; TAYLOR, Adam. One continent the global market remains untouched by the coronavirus: Antarctica. The Washington Post, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY. Global oil demand to decline in March 24th, 2020. Accessed on: March 28th, 2020. 2020 as coronavirus weighs heavily on markets. AIE, March 9th, 2020. TORRES, Ella. What life is like on Antarctica, the only continent without a Accessed on: March 26th, 2020. case of coronavirus. ABC News, March 20th, 2020. Accessed on: March SHEPARD, Jun; PRATSON, Lincoln. Maritime piracy in the Strait of 28th, 2020. Hormuz and implications of energy export security. Energy Policy, March 2020. Accessed on: March 27th, 2020. • Impacts of the novel coronavirus on global maritime trade • The threats to Iraq in face of USA and Iran UN. Short-terms effects of the coronavirus outbreak: what does aggressions the shipping data say?. United Nations Conference on Trade and SCHMITT, Eric; NEFF-GIBBONS, Thomas. U.S. Carries Out Retaliatory Development (UNCTAD), March 4th, 2020. Accessed on: March 29th, Strikes on Iranian-Backed Militia in Iraq. The New York Times, March 2020. 12nd. 2020. Accessed on: March 28th, 2020. ADAMOPOULOS, Anastassios. Seafarers must be exempt from travel KULLAB, S; ABDUL-ZAHRA, Q. U.S. led coalition troops pull out of base bans, say ICS and ITF. Lloydslist Maritime Intelligence Informa, March in western Iraq. Military Times, March 20th, 2020. Accessed on: March 19th, 2020. Accessed on: March 28th, 2020. 28th, 2020. • Bangladesh and the nuclear cooperation with Russia Russia and Bangladesh expand nuclear cooperation. Eurasia Review, March 22nd, 2020. Accessed on: March 22nd, 2020. Projects. Rosatom, 2020. Accessed on: March 22nd, 2020. 16 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 113 • April | 2020 RISK MAP T he map entitled “Top 10 Global Risks”, shown on page 02 of this Boletim, was prepared by the Conjuncture Assessment Group (NAC) members of the Brazilian Naval War College (EGN). The criteria used to analyze international phenomena and determine which ones should appear on the map are based on their relevance to Brazil, namely: presence of Brazilians living in the region, direct or indirect influence on the Brazilian economy and impact on the Brazilian Strategic Surroundings. In addition, the interests of the United Nations Security Council permanent members will be considered. After selecting the phenomena, they are categorized as high risk (red) or medium risk (orange), following parameters that reflect the severity of the risk, namely: number of victims, relevance of the actors involved, impact on the global economy and tensions escalating possibility. Due to the increase in the number of cases (infected, hospitalized and killed) regarding COVID-19, there was an adaptation in the analysis of the scenario. In this way, a separate map was drawn up, with the 10 countries with the highest number of infected people, according to the latest WHO bulletin released until the date of this bulletin. Thus, the countries were divided into red and orange according to the number of total cases. The analyzes are redone at each Boletim edition, aiming to reassess and update the demarcated regions, as well as the color used in each one. Therefore, 10 main phenomena are always observed, distributed at high and medium risk. Below are links to the risks indicated on the map: ► HIGH RISK: • YEMEN — Civil war and humanitarian crisis: War-torn Yemen at a 'critical juncture', warns UN. Al Jazeera, March 7th, 2020. Accessed on: March 16th, 2020. • LIBYA — Civil war escalation: Libya conflict: Heavy shelling around Tripoli's Mitiga airport. Al Jazeera, February 28th, 2020. Accessed on: March 16th, 2020. • SYRIA — Continuity of attacks in Idlib: With cease-fire in place, Syrians return for belongings, but not to stay. The New York Times, March 16th, 2020. Accessed on: March 16th, 2020. ► MEDIUM RISK: • VENEZUELA — Structural crisis: Venezuela, already in crisis, reports 1st coronavirus cases. ABC News, March 14th, 2020. Accessed on: March 16th, 2020. • GULF OF GUINEA — Piracy increase: Who will help solve Africa's piracy problem in the Gulf of Guinea? DW, February 14th, 2020. Accessed on: March 16th, 2020. • UKRAINE — Crimea and Donbass impasse: Zelensky’s ultimatums likely to only alienate Donbass, says Russian MP. TASS, March 7th, 2020. Accessed on: March 15th, 2020. • IRAQ — Tensions between the USA and Iran: Iran and US preparing for new round of conflict in Iraq. The Jerusalem Post, March 28th, 2020. Accessed on: March 31st, 2020. • AFGHANISTAN — Uncertainties in the peace process: Are the Taliban Serious about Peace Negotiations?. International Crisis Group, March 30th, 2020. Accessed on: March 31st, 2020. • HAITI — Socio-political crisis: 10 Years After The 2010 Quake, Haiti Got Worse In 2020 Under PHTK’s Government. Modern Diplomacy, March 16th, 2020. Accessed on: March 31st, 2020. • NORTH KOREA — New ballistic missile tests: North Korea Launches Two Short-Range Ballistic Missiles. The New York Times, March 28th, 2020. Accessed on: March 31st, 2020. 17 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 113 • April | 2020