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The breeding biology and factors affecting reproductive success in rockhopper penguins Eudyptes chrysocome at Macquarie Island

Polar Biology, 2004
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See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/226015060 The breeding biology and factors affecting reproductive success in rockhopper penguins Eudyptes chrysocome at... Article in Polar Biology · October 2004 DOI: 10.1007/s00300-004-0643-z CITATIONS 16 READS 74 6 authors, including: Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects: Evaluating the likelihood of critical transitions in Southern Ocean ecosystems View project Mark A Hindell University of Tasmania 325 PUBLICATIONS 6,996 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE R. Paul Scofield Canterbury Museum 198 PUBLICATIONS 1,766 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE Mary-Anne Lea University of Tasmania 64 PUBLICATIONS 1,215 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE All content following this page was uploaded by Mary-Anne Lea on 13 January 2017. The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file. All in-text references underlined in blue are added to the original document and are linked to publications on ResearchGate, letting you access and read them immediately.
ORIGINAL PAPER Cindy L. Hull Æ Mark Hindell Æ Kirsten Le Mar Paul Scofield Æ Jane Wilson Æ Mary-Anne Lea The breeding biology and factors affecting reproductive success in rockhopper penguins Eudyptes chrysocome at Macquarie Island Received: 15 October 2003 / Revised: 20 May 2004 / Accepted: 20 May 2004 / Published online: 22 July 2004 Ó Springer-Verlag 2004 Abstract Adult mass changes, egg morphometrics, chick growth rates, fledging masses, reproductive success and reasons for reproductive failure were examined in rockhopper penguins at Macquarie Island from 1993/ 1994 to 1995/1996. Mean arrival masses, growth rates of chicks and fledging masses exhibited inter-annual vari- ability, while egg morphometrics, hatching success (68.0±6.0%) and reproductive success (47.3±8.3%) were constant between years. Reproductive failures occurred primarily during incubation, with the majority of eggs lost to great skuas. Logistic regressions revealed that no variable significantly explained hatching success, and only in 1994/1995 was fledging success significantly correlated with the position of nest in the colony (those in the centre were more successful than those on the periphery). Reproductive success during this study was relatively high, and therefore an assessment during poor years would be instructive, particularly in relation to aspects of the penguins’ foraging ecology. Introduction Penguins are a highly specialised group of seabirds whose relatively low reproductive output may have evolved to cope with the difficulties of exploiting their food resource, and the constraints related to transport- ing food from feeding grounds to the nest site (Ricklefs 1983). However, reproductive success in a number of species exhibits large inter-annual and geographical variability, which is apparently dictated by the distri- bution and abundance of prey ultimately due to envi- ronmental perturbations (Reilly and Cullen 1981; Trivelpiece et al. 1983; Heath and Randall 1985; Brown and Klages 1987; Boersma et al. 1990; van Heezik and Davis 1990; Williams and Croxall 1991; Thompson 1993; Watanuki et al. 1993; Crawford and Dyer 1995). Rockhopper penguins (Eudyptes chrysocome) are the most widespread species of the crested penguins. They range from islands near the Antarctic Polar Front to islands near the subtropical convergence in the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans (Marchant and Higgins 1990). They comprise three subspecies (E. chrysocome chrysocome, E. chrysocome filholi and E. chrysocome moseleyi), although their taxonomy requires further examination (Ellis et al. 1998). Rockhopper penguin populations have declined substantially at a number of sites (Campbell Island, Tristan da Cunha, the Antipodes and Falkland Islands, Ellis et al.1998). These declines have prompted the upgrading of their IUCN conservation status to vul- nerable (Ellis et al. 1998). Declines in the order of 94% have been recorded on Campbell Island (Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean), a site that had a breeding popu- lation of 1.6 million birds in 1942 (Cunningham and Moors 1994). In order to better understand, and hope- fully prevent, such declines, data are required on the species’ breeding biology and its relationship with for- aging ecology (Pu¨tz et al. 2001). Members of the eastern subspecies, E. chrysocome filholi, breed on Macquarie Island (54°33¢57¢¢S, 158°54¢57¢¢E), also in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. Although some aspects of their breeding biology have been studied at this site (Warham 1963; St Clair and St Clair 1996), no multi-year comparisons have been made. The purpose of this study was to describe the factors affecting reproductive success in rockhopper penguins at Macquarie Island, assess inter-annual vari- ability, and how these factors relate to aspects of their foraging ecology. C. L. Hull (&) Æ M. Hindell Æ K. Le Mar Æ P. Scofield J. Wilson Æ M.-A. Lea School of Zoology, University of Tasmania, GPO Box 252-05, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia E-mail: cindy.hull@hydro.com.au Present address: C. L. Hull Environmental Services, Hydro Tasmania, GPO Box 355, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia Polar Biol (2004) 27: 711–720 DOI 10.1007/s00300-004-0643-z
See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/226015060 The breeding biology and factors affecting reproductive success in rockhopper penguins Eudyptes chrysocome at... Article in Polar Biology · October 2004 DOI: 10.1007/s00300-004-0643-z CITATIONS READS 16 74 6 authors, including: Mark A Hindell R. Paul Scofield 325 PUBLICATIONS 6,996 CITATIONS 198 PUBLICATIONS 1,766 CITATIONS University of Tasmania SEE PROFILE Canterbury Museum SEE PROFILE Mary-Anne Lea University of Tasmania 64 PUBLICATIONS 1,215 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects: Evaluating the likelihood of critical transitions in Southern Ocean ecosystems View project All content following this page was uploaded by Mary-Anne Lea on 13 January 2017. The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file. All in-text references underlined in blue are added to the original document and are linked to publications on ResearchGate, letting you access and read them immediately. Polar Biol (2004) 27: 711–720 DOI 10.1007/s00300-004-0643-z O R I GI N A L P A P E R Cindy L. Hull Æ Mark Hindell Æ Kirsten Le Mar Paul Scofield Æ Jane Wilson Æ Mary-Anne Lea The breeding biology and factors affecting reproductive success in rockhopper penguins Eudyptes chrysocome at Macquarie Island Received: 15 October 2003 / Revised: 20 May 2004 / Accepted: 20 May 2004 / Published online: 22 July 2004  Springer-Verlag 2004 Abstract Adult mass changes, egg morphometrics, chick growth rates, fledging masses, reproductive success and reasons for reproductive failure were examined in rockhopper penguins at Macquarie Island from 1993/ 1994 to 1995/1996. Mean arrival masses, growth rates of chicks and fledging masses exhibited inter-annual variability, while egg morphometrics, hatching success (68.0±6.0%) and reproductive success (47.3±8.3%) were constant between years. Reproductive failures occurred primarily during incubation, with the majority of eggs lost to great skuas. Logistic regressions revealed that no variable significantly explained hatching success, and only in 1994/1995 was fledging success significantly correlated with the position of nest in the colony (those in the centre were more successful than those on the periphery). Reproductive success during this study was relatively high, and therefore an assessment during poor years would be instructive, particularly in relation to aspects of the penguins’ foraging ecology. Introduction Penguins are a highly specialised group of seabirds whose relatively low reproductive output may have evolved to cope with the difficulties of exploiting their food resource, and the constraints related to transporting food from feeding grounds to the nest site (Ricklefs 1983). However, reproductive success in a number of C. L. Hull (&) Æ M. Hindell Æ K. Le Mar Æ P. Scofield J. Wilson Æ M.-A. Lea School of Zoology, University of Tasmania, GPO Box 252-05, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia E-mail: cindy.hull@hydro.com.au Present address: C. L. Hull Environmental Services, Hydro Tasmania, GPO Box 355, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia species exhibits large inter-annual and geographical variability, which is apparently dictated by the distribution and abundance of prey ultimately due to environmental perturbations (Reilly and Cullen 1981; Trivelpiece et al. 1983; Heath and Randall 1985; Brown and Klages 1987; Boersma et al. 1990; van Heezik and Davis 1990; Williams and Croxall 1991; Thompson 1993; Watanuki et al. 1993; Crawford and Dyer 1995). Rockhopper penguins (Eudyptes chrysocome) are the most widespread species of the crested penguins. They range from islands near the Antarctic Polar Front to islands near the subtropical convergence in the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans (Marchant and Higgins 1990). They comprise three subspecies (E. chrysocome chrysocome, E. chrysocome filholi and E. chrysocome moseleyi), although their taxonomy requires further examination (Ellis et al. 1998). Rockhopper penguin populations have declined substantially at a number of sites (Campbell Island, Tristan da Cunha, the Antipodes and Falkland Islands, Ellis et al.1998). These declines have prompted the upgrading of their IUCN conservation status to vulnerable (Ellis et al. 1998). Declines in the order of 94% have been recorded on Campbell Island (Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean), a site that had a breeding population of 1.6 million birds in 1942 (Cunningham and Moors 1994). In order to better understand, and hopefully prevent, such declines, data are required on the species’ breeding biology and its relationship with foraging ecology (Pütz et al. 2001). Members of the eastern subspecies, E. chrysocome filholi, breed on Macquarie Island (5433¢57¢¢S, 15854¢57¢¢E), also in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. Although some aspects of their breeding biology have been studied at this site (Warham 1963; St Clair and St Clair 1996), no multi-year comparisons have been made. The purpose of this study was to describe the factors affecting reproductive success in rockhopper penguins at Macquarie Island, assess inter-annual variability, and how these factors relate to aspects of their foraging ecology. 712 Materials and methods Fieldwork was undertaken at the rockhopper-penguin colony at Brothers Point, on the east coast of Macquarie Island during the 1993/1994, 1994/1995 and 1995/1996 breeding seasons. The colony comprised approximately 2,000 breeding pairs, and was located at the rear of a small cove on steeply sloping ground. It was a small colony (777 m2), at an altitude of 3–37 m, and covered with loose boulders and patches of tussock grass, Poa spp. Adult mass changes, egg and chick morphometrics and reproductive success were quantified during the 3 years of the study. Adult mass changes Approximately 30 breeding adults [indicated by plumage characteristics (Warham 1975), time of year (juveniles do not return until after breeding commences, C. Hull, personal observation) and, when breeding, by the presence of a brood patch] were weighed on the beach below the colony at each of the following stages each year: 1. Male return to the island following the non-breeding winter period at sea. 2. Female return to the island following the nonbreeding winter period at sea. 3. Male departure during incubation, following fasting. 4. Female departure during incubation, following fasting. 5. Male return from the 3-weeks foraging trip during incubation. 6. Female return from the 2-weeks foraging trip during incubation. 7. Guard stage—females as they departed and returned from foraging (males remain at the nest). 8. Crèche stage—weekly measurements of both sexes as they departed for and returned from foraging. During each weighing session, adults were captured by hand, weighed and sexed using a discriminant formula incorporating bill depth and length (Hull 1996). Individuals were marked with a small patch of watersoluble paint to avoid re-weighing in that session, and then released. Mass was compared between years using Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVAs), with stage in the breeding season as a covariate. Nest monitoring Breeding chronology, egg morphometrics, chick growth rates, fledging masses, and reproductive success were measured at 50 nests during each year of the study. Nests on two transect lines that bisected the colony (one in the upper third of the colony and one in the lower third) were marked with individually numbered aluminium tags (2 cm2) attached to rocks prior to the commencement of breeding, to minimise disturbance (Hull and Wilson 1996). Tags were left in place between seasons, and hence the same nests were monitored unless a pair moved or a marker was lost. All tags were removed at the end of the study. Once pairs had formed, adults were banded with metal flipper bands and sex determined from bill morphometrics (as above, Hull 1996). As metal flipper bands were not available until after the 1993/1994 breeding season was well established, only some birds were banded permanently during this year, with the remainder banded with velcro bands, which were lost or removed by the end of this season. The mass of breeding birds was taken at the nest at the start of the 1993/1994 season, but not in subsequent seasons due to the disturbance this procedure caused (Hull and Wilson 1996). Nests were monitored twice weekly prior to the hatching of chicks, and once a week thereafter to determine breeding status and parental attendance. The masses, maximum lengths and widths of A (first laid) and B (second laid) eggs were measured within 2 days of laying. Egg dimensions were compared between the years using one-way ANOVAs. The ‘‘investment’’ by females in both A and B eggs was determined by expressing egg mass as a percentage of female mass during 1993/1994. Initial chick masses were recorded within 2 days of hatching and then once weekly thereafter until the end of the creching period. A uniquely numbered aluminium fish fingerling tag (10 mm·2 mm) was inserted into the webbing of the right foot for identification at 1 week of age. At 3 weeks of age, a small, individually numbered velcro band was secured to the right flipper to assist with identification, as once chicks entered a crèche it was difficult to observe the fingerling tags in the mud of the colony. Each week the velcro band was loosened to allow for flipper growth, and just prior to fledging, the fingerling tags and velcro bands were removed and chicks were banded with a permanent metal flipper band. Chick growth rates were compared between years using Gompertz equations, which take non-linear growth rates into account (Zullinger et al. 1984). Gompertz equations were selected as these are the best available for comparison between species (Zullinger et al. 1984), and best described growth in other species of birds (Ricketts and Prince 1981). Three growth-related variables were estimated: maximum mass (the asymptote, or maximum mass recorded for each individual); growth rate (the shape of the curve of mass change); and maximum growth rate (the time of maximum growth rate) (see Ricketts and Prince 1981). Inter-annual variability was determined by comparing the amount of overlap in the 95% confidence limits of variables. The masses of fledging chicks were taken on the beach as they departed the colony. A small patch of water-soluble paint was applied to the bird’s breast to avoid re-weighing. Chicks from each breeding season were distinguished from first-year birds by their smaller size, different call and different plumage (Marchant and 713 Higgins 1990). Fledging masses were compared between years using one-way ANOVAs. Reproductive success was compared between years and transects, of nests at different locations (centre of the colony or peripheral, the latter being defined as the first three nests from the edge of transect lines, cf. Ainley et al. 1983), and in different microhabitats using v2 analysis. Microhabitats were categorised as either: – – – – Exposed (no shelter provided by rocks or tussock); In a rock cavity; In the lee of rocks; or In tussock. The causes of nest failures were categorised as: – Deserted (where the adults and nest contents had disappeared); – Predation of egg (where the adults were present with no egg and it was not in the surrounding area); – Broken egg; – Egg rolled away (where it was observed at the side of the nest); – Never hatched (but remained in the nest); – Chick died (when found dead in the nest); – Predation of chick (when the chick had disappeared and was not in the surrounding area, but adults were present); – Unknown. There were probably some instances when eggs or chicks were taken by predators which prompted the abandonment of the nest, and hence, some of the desertions described may represent cases of predation. The reasons for the demise of eggs or chicks were compared using v2 analysis. Binary logistic regressions were run to determine if the explanatory variables: female and male mass (1993/ 1994 only); egg length; egg width; egg mass; whether the male or female had successfully bred or attempted to breed in the previous year (conducted only in the final season due to limited data in 1993/1994); position in colony; and nest microhabitat, had an effect on hatching and fledging success. As the same nests were monitored each year, logistic regressions were conducted separately for each year to avoid pseudoreplication. Data are presented as means±standard deviations throughout. Results Adult mass change The masses of 656 male and 827 female rockhopper penguins were measured during the 3 years of this study. On average, males were heavier (3.4±0.6 kg) than females (2.9±0.5 kg, or 86% of males) in all years (1993/ 1994: F1, 504=94.2, P<0.0001; 1994/1995: F1, 543=38.0, P<0.0001; 1995/1996: F1, 427=51.2, P<0.0001). However, both sexes exhibited considerable variability in their masses across the breeding season (Table 1). The Table 1 The mean mass±SD (kg) of rockhopper penguins during all stages and years of the study. Only females forage during guard stage; sample sizes are given in parentheses Stage in breeding season 1993/1994 1994/1995 1995/1996 Male return after winter Male departure after fasting Male return (incubation) Female return after winter Female departure after fasting Female return (incubation) Early guard—departure Early guard—return Late guard—departure Late guard—return Males Early crèche—departure Early crèche—return Mid crèche—departure Mid crèche—return Late crèche—departure Late crèche—return Females Early crèche—departure Early crèche—return Mid crèche—departure Mid crèche—return Late crèche—departure Late crèche—return 3.4±0.3 2.3±0.2 3.5±0.6 3.1±0.5 2.5±0.5 2.7±0.4 2.5±0.2 2.8±0.2 2.3±0.2 2.5±0.3 3.7±0.4 2.6±0.3 4.1±0.4 3.6±0.3 (120) (19) (29) (119) 3.0±0.3 2.6±0.3 2.9±0.3 2.6±0.2 2.7±0.2 (36) (22) (10) (9) (11) 4.1±0.3 3.0±0.4 3.4±0.4 3.9±0.3 2.5±0.4 3.3±0.2 2.8±0.1 3.1±0.3 2.4±0.2 2.7±0.2 (86) (11) (12) (46) (15) (15) (16) (16) (30) (30) 2.4±0.04 (4) 2.7±0.4 (13) 3.0±0.2 (5) 3.0±0.2 (5) 2.8±0.3 (14) 2.9±0.2 (12) 2.8±0.3 3.2±0.5 2.9±0.3 3.5±0.4 2.8±0.4 3.0±0.3 (20) (16) (15) (13) (6) (10) 3.4±0.4 3.4±0.5 2.7±0.3 3.2±0.3 (12) (14) (14) (15) 2.4±0.3 2.7±0.3 2.4±0.2 2.7±0.3 2.4±0.2 2.5±0.3 2.7±0.3 2.8±0.3 2.6±0.3 3.0±0.2 2.6±0.2 2.8±0.3 (25) (28) (14) (18) (9) (5) 2.8±0.4 2.8±0.2 2.7±0.3 2.9±0.3 a Hull (1999a) (162) (3) (24) (83) (36) (29) (10) (14) (9) (13) (13) (18) (2) (11) (9) (18) Average mass loss (%) Average mass gain (%) Average quantity of food brought ashore (g)a 9.1±15.7 (13) 31.5 43.0 6.6±15.9 (15) ± 11.5 (38) 21.7 38.5±17.5 (10) 4.7 145.7±65.6 (32) 28.0 8.5 7.4 0.4 215.4±123.8 (14) 18.5 3.4 144.3±80.1 (11) 15.8 180.4±103.3 (15) 1.4 143.3±87.7 (18) 13.9 211.5±128.4 (24) 8.5 202.0±133.8 (19) 6.2 160.2±90.0 (27) 11.2 6.1 (19) (21) (15) (18) 4.4 10.4 5.9 714 Table 2 Dates of events in the breeding season of rockhopper penguins during each year of the study. Medians are given, except for ‘‘first male return’’, when first sightings are given – not witnessed Event 1993/1994 1994/1995 1995/1996 First males return Females return A eggs laid B eggs laid Males depart Males return Females depart Females return Chicks hatch Chicks crèching Chicks fledge Forage for moult Return to moult Depart the island Duration of male fast (days) Duration of female fast (days) Duration of incubation (days) Duration of chick rearing (days) 17/10 20/10 14/11 19/11 29/11 6/12 7/12 20/12 20/12 14/1 24/2 25/2 – – 43 48 31 66 16/10 18/10 13/11 17/11 27/11 5/12 5/12 19/12 21/12 15/1 21/2 25/2 6/3 25/4 43 48 32 64 14/10 20/10 14/11 17/11 27/11 6/12 6/12 15/12 18/12 13/1 22/2 25/2 10/3 – 41 49 29 69 greatest mass losses occurred during fasting in the incubation period (males lost on average 31.5% of arrival mass or 81.0 g day 1, and females 28.0% of arrival mass or 94.2 g day 1, Table 1). The largest mass gains occurred when birds returned from foraging trips during incubation (males gained 43.0% of departure mass or 7.5 g day 1, and females 21.7%, or 7.3 g day 1, of their departure masses, Table 1). The smallest gains in mass were made by males during crèche stage (4.8 g day 1), and by females during guard stage when they lost 1.0 g day 1. These masses include food brought ashore, although this amounts to very little during the incubation period (Hull 1999a, Table 1). The masses of males and females differed significantly between years (males: F2, 652=60.5, P<0.0001; females: F2, 823=64.9, P<0.0001, Table 1), with both sexes lightest in 1993/1994, and heaviest in 1995/1996. The source of this variation was arrival masses, which were significantly different between years in both sexes (males: F2, 365=146.2, P<0.0001; females F2, 245=78.8, P<0.0001). Nest monitoring Rockhopper penguins showed considerable synchrony in breeding chronology between individuals and years (Table 2). Only 9% of banded males and 4% of banded females on these transects were found to undertake a Table 3 The number of male and female rockhopper penguins that attempted to breed during the 3 years of the study, and in relation to the number of birds known to be alive (n=202 individuals, 87 males and 77 females) breeding attempt during each one of the breeding seasons (Table 3), with few birds attempting to breed more than once during the 3 years of the study. Twenty-seven (54%) males and 24 (48%) females remained at the same nest site over 2 years. Only five (10%) males and two (4%) females remained at the same nest site over the 3 years of the study. There were 15 cases of mate changes in the 3 years, 8 of which (53%) occurred following a nest failure in the previous season. The size of eggs and hatching masses of A and B chicks were constant between years (Table 4), with A and B eggs weighing 3.1% and 4.2% of female mass, respectively. During the 3 years of the study, five pairs of birds laid only an A egg. Hatching success of A and B eggs combined was 68.0±6.0% and constant between years (v22=0.5, P>0.05, Table 4). Fledging success (number of chicks fledged from eggs hatched) was 69.3±6.9% and constant between years (v22=0.5, P>0.05). Eight chicks (11%) fledged from A eggs. Maximum masses, maximum growth rates and growth rates of chicks were constant between the 3 years (Fig. 1, Table 4). On average, chicks fledged at 82.1% of adult mass, but there were significant inter-annual differences in these masses (F2, 175=6.5, P<0.002), with chicks from 1995/1996 being significantly heavier than those from the other 2 years (Table 4). Reproductive success was constant between years at 47.3±8.3% (v22=1.5, P>0.05). The majority (98.0% of A eggs and 79.7% of B eggs) of nest failures occurred during the incubation period (Table 5). Egg losses Attempted to breed all 3 years Attempted to breed during 2 years Attempted to breed during 1 year Successfully bred for 3 years Successfully bred for 2 years Successfully bred for 1 year Males Known to be alive (%) Females Known to be alive (%) 8 32 62 4 6 45 9.2 36.8 71.3 4.6 6.9 51.7 3 25 72 3 5 44 3.9 32.5 93.5 3.9 6.5 57.1 715 Table 4 Morphometric details of rockhopper penguin eggs and chicks, with results of statistical comparisons between years shown. Maximum masses, growth rates and maximum growth rates are derived from the Gompertz equations *Significant case, P>0.05 Dimension Mean±SD F A length (cm) A width (cm) A mass (g) B length (cm) B width (cm) B mass (g) Clutch mass (% female, 1993/1994 only) Hatching masses A egg Hatching masses B egg Maximum mass 95% CL 1993/1994 1994/1995 1995/1996 Growth rate 95% CL 1993/1994 1994/1995 1995/1996 Maximum growth rate 95% CL 1993/1994 1994/1995 1995/1996 Fledging masses 1993/1994 1994/1995 1995/1996 6.5±0.4 4.9±0.2 88.2±13.8 7.1±0.3 5.3±0.3 115.2±14.8 8.0±4.97 67.5±8.4 82.6±8.5 F3, F3, F3, F3, F3, F3, – – F2, 2.36–2.59 1.92–2.51 2.46–2.82 – – – 19 25 27 0.38–0.49 0.25–0.41 0.32–0.43 – – – 19 25 27 4.23–4.60 3.96–5.01 4.55–5.08 – – – 19 25 27 2.2±0.2 2.3±0.4 2.4±0.2 F2, – – occurred throughout the incubation period, but peak losses of A eggs occurred from 6 to 16 December and B eggs from 26 November to 16 December (Fig. 2). There were no significant differences in reproductive success between transects (v21=0.2, P>0.05); however, peripheral nests (22.0%) were significantly less successful than central nests (55.3%, v21=4.2, P<0.05). There were no significant differences in the reproductive success of nests found in various microhabitats (v23=2.5, P>0.05). n 138=0.6 136=1.9 136=1.9 127=0.5 127=0.2 126=0.1 22=0.05 175=6.5* 141 141 139 130 130 129 39 8 25 35 34 109 The logistic regressions revealed that none of the explanatory variables were significant predictors of hatching success (1993/1994: 6.2, df=7, P>0.05; 1994/ 1995: 9.8, df=5, P>0.05; 1995/1996: 3.4, df=5, P>0.05). During 1994/1995, the model was significant at predicting fledging success (11.9, df=5, P<0.05), but not during the other years (1993/1994: 7.4, df=7, P>0.05; 1995/1996: 12.7, df=9, P>0.05). The most important explanatory variable during 1994/1995 was the position of the nest in the colony (t=2.4, P<0.02). Discussion This 3-years study allows an assessment of the factors affecting reproductive success, and the relationship between breeding biology and aspects of the foraging ecology of individuals. In particular, any dietary differences or changes in foraging zones used across years (Hull 1999a, b, 2000) can be assessed. Such information is useful in understanding the reasons for the decline of the species at some sites. Adult mass changes Fig. 1 Growth rates of rockhopper penguin chicks from hatching to prior to fledging. Sample sizes 1993/1994=191, 1994/1995=239, 1995/1996=300 Rockhopper penguins exhibited inter-annual differences in arrival masses during these 3 years. This suggests different foraging success during the winter or the period just prior to breeding, with prey possibly more abundant or accessible during these periods in 1995 compared to those during 1993. Studies of other penguin species have found that arrival mass correlates with subsequent reproductive success (Drent and Daan 1980; Williams and Stone 716 Table 5 Observed causes of reproductive failures in rockhopper penguins during the 3 years of the study Total laid Deserted Predation of egg A eggs (150) 2 (1.3) B eggs (79) 5 (6.3) Egg broken Rolled Never Chick away hatched died 107 (71.3) 1 (0.7) 48 (60.8) 2 (2.5) 1981; Chastel et al. 1995); however, this was not found in the current study. Two factors affect the relationship between arrival mass and reproductive success: the degree of pelagic foraging (Chastel et al. 1995), and the extent to which a species is a capital or income breeder (Drent and Daan 1980). Pelagic foragers and capital breeding species are more susceptible to reproductive failure than income breeders if food is in short supply during the early part of the breeding season (Drent and Daan 1980). Rockhopper penguins conform to the characteristics of an income breeder, by relying less on reserves built up prior to the start of the breeding season, and instead continually replacing lost body condition throughout the season (Drent and Daan 1980; Chastel et al. 1995). This is evident in the mass data from 1993/1994 where individuals attained masses similar to other years, although they began the season with lower body masses. The masses of adult rockhopper penguins exhibited considerable variability across the breeding season. Males reached their lowest masses after long periods of fasting, while females were at their lowest masses during foraging trips in guard stage. Although females are foraging at this time, they presumably deliver the majority of the food to the chick, retaining a minimal amount of food for self-maintenance. This, combined with the fact that only one parent is foraging, makes this stage the most energetically taxing phase of chick rearing 8 (5.3) 2 (2.5) 2 (1.3) 1 (1.3) Predation Unknown of chick 2 (1.3) 1 (0.7) 2 (2.5) 14 (17.7) 27 (18.0) 5 (6.3) (Ricklefs 1983; Bost and Jouventin 1991; Wilson et al. 1991; Culik 1994; Edge et al. 1999). Female rockhopper penguins bring ashore 147–227 g (5.2–9.6% of adult mass) of food during early and late guard stage, respectively (Hull 1999a). Generally, other species of penguin feed their chicks 23.3–32.0% of food they obtain during a foraging trip (Green and Gales 1990). Given the large mass losses during this period, it is possible that rockhopper penguins supply their chicks a higher percentage of food obtained from a foraging trip during guard stage than other species. Males were, on average, heavier than females throughout the breeding season, but lost similar quantities of mass to females (males 1.0 kg and females 1.1 kg from pre-breeding to crèche, see Table 1). This pattern contrasts with that of female little penguins (Eudyptula minor), who lose significantly more mass than males during the breeding season. These larger mass losses in female little penguins have been attributed to the production and raising of two chicks (Dann et al. 1995). Although the relative egg mass of rockhopper penguin eggs (8.0% of female mass) was similar to that of little penguins (10% of female mass, Dann et al. 1995), rockhopper penguins did not ever successfully retain a second chick to fledging, thereby reducing the energetic investment required from adults, particularly females, during guard stage. Nest monitoring Fig. 2 Frequency distribution of the dates when rockhopper penguin A and B eggs were lost Like other species of sub-Antarctic eudyptid penguins, the breeding chronology of rockhopper penguins was highly synchronous between individuals and years (Gwynn 1953; Warham 1972; Williams and Croxall 1991). This synchrony may have evolved as a mechanism to reduce the impact of terrestrial predators (Liddle 1994), maximise chick survival by timing fledging when prey abundance is highest (Liddle 1994), and/or when climatic conditions are most favourable (Croxall and Prince 1980). The last suggestion finds support in the correlation between the commencement of breeding and latitude, with rockhopper penguins breeding 10 days later for every 1C decline in sea-surface temperature (Warham 1972). The royal/macaroni penguin species complex exhibits a similar trend, with the more southerly macaroni penguin (Eudyptes chrysolophus) breeding later than royal penguins (Croxall and Prince 1980). During the 3 years of this study, only 3% of males and 8% of females attempted to breed during all years. This low rate is explained in part by the lack of complete permanent banding during the first season. It is also 717 possible that some rockhopper penguins were disturbed by investigators, either through handling or through the attachment of flipper bands, and did not attempt to breed. These figures should then be viewed as conservative, although the actual percentage of birds attempting to breed each year may still be low. Long-term avian studies reveal that only a small proportion of individuals produce a disproportionate number of the next generation (Clutton-Brock 1988; Ollason and Durnett 1988; Thomas and Coulson 1988; Wooller et al. 1989). For example, only 20% of male and 18% of female little penguins were responsible for producing all the following generation (Dann and Cullen 1990). Skipping a breeding season in a long-lived seabird may minimise the risk of mortality, with the risk ultimately being mediated by body condition (Chastel et al. 1995; Weimerskirch et al. 1995). Non-breeding in adult seabirds is related to food shortage and large-scale environmental perturbations (Coulson 1984; Ainley et al. 1988; Chastel et al. 1993). While some individuals may skip a breeding attempt during years where they have not attained sufficient condition, different classes of breeders may also exist, as reported in king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) (Jiguet and Jouventin 1999). Some king penguins lay an egg every year, while others are frequent or infrequent intermittent breeders. These distinctions may be related to age classes, different adult quality or alternate breeding strategies (Jiguet and Jouventin 1999). Dann and Cullen (1990) found that only 31% of fledged little penguin chicks ever attempted to breed during their lifetime. The quality of individuals appears to be of primary importance in lifetime reproductive output (Coulson 1968; Dann et al. 1995). If only a small proportion of breeding-age rockhopper penguins return to the island each year to breed, estimates of the population size and food-consumption rates based on the number of breeding birds observed at a colony, may be a significant under-estimate. While the number of birds breeding each year will be related to the size of a population, this relationship may be complex and exhibit variability related to factors such as prey availability. Rockhopper penguins, like other eudyptid penguins, exhibit reversed egg size dimorphism (Slagsvold et al. 1984) and, relative to other birds, a low total investment in clutches (Lack 1968; Williams 1990). This small investment may be due to the difficulties in obtaining sufficient food during the breeding season (Lack 1968), and hence penguins have adjusted to a minimum reproductive output (Ricklefs 1983). As this is a relatively long-lived species (Marchant and Higgins 1990), this may be a low-risk breeding strategy that is advantageous when faced with unpredictable food resources. Egg-failure rates of rockhopper penguins in this and other studies (Williams 1980) were higher than those of Magellanic (Spheniscus magellanicus), little and chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) penguins (Reilly and Cullen 1981; Croxall et al. 1988; Boersma et al. 1990; Dann and Cullen 1990). Nest failures in the current study occurred primarily during incubation, generally around the time of laying. Some previous studies have found peak egg losses occurred in rockhopper penguins closer to laying (Williams 1980; Lamey 1993), while others have found them close to hatching (St Clair and St Clair 1996), which may reflect a site or annual difference. Rockhopper penguins in this study only ever fledged one chick, as has been found previously (Warham 1975), although rockhopper penguins on the Falkland Islands have an average reproductive success of 0.72 chicks per pair, and it was thought that it was not unusual that, at least in some years, rockhopper penguins raised two chicks (Pütz et al. 2001). Eleven percent of chicks in the current study hatched from A eggs. Both A and B eggs of rockhopper penguins are viable, although there are inherent differences in their embryonic metabolism (Williams 1980; Brown 1988). Only when the B egg is lost do rockhopper penguins raise a chick from an A egg (Gwynn 1953), which appears to be the case in this study, and reinforces the contention that A eggs have some insurance role for rockhopper penguins (St Clair and St Clair 1996). The majority (71%) of A and B egg losses in the current study were due to great skuas (Catharacta skua). Predation by skuas, aggressive behaviour among conspecifics and movements of newly hatched siblings have also been listed as the most important causes of egg failure in rockhopper penguins (St Clair and St Clair 1996). Individuals of this species may be more vulnerable to predation by skuas because of their: (1) smaller size of eggs, which are presumably easier for predators to remove; (2) small adult size, which reduces their ability to defend their nest from predation as effectively as larger species; (3) attempting to incubate two eggs; or (4) the small size of this colony. Reproductive success was similar in all 3 years of this study, and higher than has been found in other penguins (Carrick and Ingham 1970; Williams and Stone 1981; Davis et al. 1989). Only royal penguins at a small westcoast colony on Macquarie Island, and rockhopper penguins at Tristan da Cunha and the Falkland Islands have exhibited a higher reproductive success (54, 51 and 35–61%, respectively, Williams and Stone 1981; Hindell et al. 1995; Pütz et al. 2001). Reproductive success, however, is not necessarily a good indicator of survival, as some seabirds exhibit an inverse relationship between chick growth and postfledging mortality up to the age of 2 years (Hamer et al. 1991). King-penguin chicks that fledged during a bad year were resighted less than those fledged during a good year, suggesting that their survival was near zero, or they were delayed in returning to the colony (Olsson 1997). If this relationship between fledging mass and survival of chicks exists in rockhopper penguins, survival rates from birds fledged during 1994/1995 could be lower than during the other years of the study. The lack of inter-annual differences in the majority of breeding parameters suggests that the 3 years of this 718 study were similar in prey availability or abundance during the chick-rearing period, or that adults were able to compensate for any differences in prey stocks. Adults returned to the colony with the lowest masses in 1993/ 1994, but this did not affect their reproductive success or the mass of fledging chicks. The quantity of food brought ashore was higher during guard and crèche stages and least digested during 1993/1994, compared to the other years of this study. This indicates that prey was more plentiful or accessible and located closer to the colony later in the breeding season in this year (Hull 1999a). This contrasts with 1995/1996 when arrival masses were highest and chick-fledging masses greatest. The quantity of food brought ashore and other dietary variables were similar in 1995/1996 to other years, but birds undertook shallower and shorter dives with less bottom time during this year (Hull 1999a, 2000). This suggests that prey were more available at shallower depths, increasing foraging efficiency and reducing foraging time (due to less bottom time, see Hull 2000). As the quantity of food brought ashore was constant, adults may instead have allocated more food for their own maintenance when foraging. The logistic regressions revealed that none of the variables measured in this study explained hatching success, but the position of the nest in the colony explained fledging success during 1994/1995. Peripheral nests may be more vulnerable to predation from great skuas (Ainley et al. 1983; Frere et al. 1992; Emslie et al. 1995; Barbosa et al. 1997), while central nests may also benefit from by-product mutualism of breeding neighbours (Murphy and Schauer 1996). The presence and defence of eggs and nestlings by surrounding neighbours can assist nest protection through predator swamping, mutual vigilance or mutual defence (reviewed by Wittenberger and Hunt 1985). As the logistic regressions did not successfully predict hatching and reproductive success during most years, other factors, such as food abundance and availability, are probably important contributory variables that were not assessed in these models (cf. Ashmole 1971; Boersma et al. 1990; Hamer et al. 1991). In grey-headed (Diomedea chrysostoma) and black-browed (D. melanophris) albatrosses, and gentoo (P. papua) and macaroni penguins, decreases in reproductive success have been correlated with smaller and less frequent meals brought ashore, and therefore prey abundance or their accessibility, but the nature of the response varies with the species (Croxall et al. 1999). The most direct and straightforward response is found in species with a specialised diet, which have little opportunity to preyswitch, or which have restricted access to prey (by either restricted foraging ranges or limited feeding habitat). However, rockhopper penguins may be unable to rear chicks if they switch prey species. Cunningham and Moors (1994) speculated that rockhopper penguins on Campbell Island switched to a diet higher in fish, which may be less suitable than a predominantly euphausiid diet, resulting in lowered reproductive success. Other important factors influencing a species’ ability to cope with low prey abundance are the costs of foraging, whether the predator can modify an aspect of their foraging, and the tolerance of chicks to fasting (Croxall et al. 1999). However, the majority of reproductive failures in this study occurred during incubation, and hence differences in prey abundance can only be related to reproductive success if it affected the adults’ ability to continue the breeding attempt, particularly during incubation. Although there were subtle differences in some breeding parameters, the overall high reproductive success found during these 3 years suggests they may have been good ones where prey was relatively abundant. It is possible that differences in reproductive success may not be detected until a very poor season occurs, as is the case with yellow-eyed (Megadyptes antipodes) and Magellanic Penguins (Boersma et al. 1990; van Heezik and Davis 1990). Poor years may occur during El Niño Southern Oscillation events, which have been found to affect reproductive success in seabirds (Croxall et al. 1988), or during the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave, which operates on a periodicity of 4–5 years (White and Peterson 1996; Guinet et al. 1998). Although differences were found in sea-surface temperatures around Macquarie Island during this study (Hull et al. 1997; Hull 1999b), there were no large warm-water anomalies (see Fig. 1 of White and Peterson 1996). The high adult survival of rockhopper penguins, and the consequent capacity to spread breeding over a long lifetime are probably part of the adaptive strategy of species facing highly variable environmental conditions (Chastel et al. 1993). Assessment of the breeding parameters during poor years will be instructive in determining the relationship between aspects of the breeding biology of these species and marine factors. 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