Autismo

Abdella Mohammed Ahmed (M.Sc.), 2024

What is econometrics? • Literally speaking, the word ‘econometrics’ means measurement in economics. • In general, econometrics is the application of statistical and mathematical methods to the analysis of economic data with a purpose of giving empirical content to economic theories and verifying or refuting them. • More specifically, it is concerned with the use of statistical methods to attach numerical values to the parameters of economic models and also with the use of these models for prediction. • The techniques of econometrics consist of a blend of economic theory, mathematical modelling and statistical analysis. Before any statistical analysis with economic data is performed, one needs a clear mathematical formulation of the relevant economic theory. For example, saying that the demand curve is downward sloping is not enough. We have to write the statement in mathematical form as: q = a + b p, b < 0 or , b < 0 Where q is the quantity demanded and p is the price. One major problem: economic theory is rarely informative about functional forms. Thus, we have to use statistical methods to choose the functional form as well. Putting it differently, we are often presented with no more than the data themselves and the theory behind the data generation process is non-existent or far from being complete. Thus, what we do in practice is: • Investigate the important features of the observed data • Construct an empirical model (incorporating as much available background theory as possible) • Check that the constructed model is capable of capturing these important features The model construction phase is facilitated by specifying a fairly wide class of models within which some optimal search technique may then be applied. The main aim of this course is to provide a good understanding of the properties of linear econometric models and techniques. Although some features of macroeconomic time series cannot be adequately described and analysed using linear techniques, much econometric model building is dominated by linear models. The reasons include: • The theory of statistical inference is most developed for linear models. • Linear approximations to economic relationships have been quite successful in empirical work. Economic and econometric models The first task an econometrician faces is that of formulating an econometric model. What is a model? A model is a simplified representation of a real-world process. For instance, ‘the demand for oranges depends on the price of oranges’ is a simplified representation since there are a host of other variables that one can think of that determine the demand for oranges. These include: • Income of consumers • An increase in diet consciousness (e.g. drinking coffee causes cancer; so better switch to orange juice) • Increase or decrease in the price of substitutes (e.g. that of apple) However, there is no end to this stream of other variables! Many have argued in favour of simplicity since simple models are easier: • To understand • To communicate • To test empirically with data The choice of a simple model to explain complex real-world phenomena leads to two criticisms: • The model is oversimplified • The assumptions are unrealistic For instance, to say that the demand for oranges depends on only the price of oranges is both an oversimplification and an unrealistic assumption. • To the criticism of oversimplification, many have argued that it is better to start with a Simplified model and progressively construct more complicated models. • As to the criticism of unrealistic assumptions, the relevant question is whether they are sufficiently good approximations for the purpose at hand or not. In practice we include in our model: • Variables that we think are relevant for our purpose. • A ‘disturbance’ or ‘error’ term which accounts for variables that are omitted as well as all unforeseen forces. This brings us to the distinction between an economic model and econometric model. An economic model is a set of assumptions that approximately describes the behaviour of an economy (or a sector of an economy). An econometric model consists of the following: a) A set of behavioural equations derived from the economic model. These equations involve some observed variables and some ‘disturbances’. b) A statement of whether there are errors of observation in the observed variables. c) A specification of the probability distribution of the ‘disturbances ‘. With these specifications, we can proceed to test the empirical validity of the economic model and use it to make forecasts or use it in policy analysis. Methodology of econometric research The aims of econometrics are: a) Formulation of econometric models, that is, formulation of economic models in an empirically testable form (specification aspect). b) Estimation and testing of these models with observed data (inference aspect). c) Use of these models for prediction and policy purpose.

BIOS , 2022

Konzentrierend auf den Staatsdienst von Nichtmuslimen, liefert dieser Beitrag eine quantitative prosopographische Studie über die osmanische Beamtenschaft im 19. Jahrhundert. Die Anstellung nichtmuslimischer Beamter in der Zentral- und Provinzverwaltung war eines der eigentümlichsten Merkmale der expandierenden modernen osmanischen Bürokratie. Muslime, Christen und Juden teilten einen Geist der Kollegialität in einem multikonfessionellen Arbeitsumfeld. Sie waren in den Diensten eines Staates, der auf anderen als ethnischen oder nationalen Grundlagen aufbaute. Der derzeit vorwiegende Fokus auf monolithische Identitäten macht es allerdings schwer, die vergangene soziale Realität dieser Beamten eines Reiches mit multivalenten Identitäten zu studieren. https://www.budrich-journals.de/index.php/bios/issue/view/3311

Journal of Roman military equipment studies 21, 2020, 123-135, 2022

This chapter provides an in-depth discussion of the theory, research, and practice of individual difference (ID) factors in task-based language teaching (TBLT). It starts with an overview of the scope and taxonomy of IDs in second language learning, followed by a discussion of the theoretical models that provide insights into IDs' roles in TBLT. It then introduces an organizing framework covering: (a) the nature of task IDs, (b) the utility of implicit IDs in TBLT, (c) the dynamicity of task IDs, (d) the expanded scope of task IDs, and (e) the importance of research on ID-treatment interaction. Subsequently, the chapter shifts its focus to the research on IDs in TBLT, including methods, perspectives, and empirical evidence on major ID factors-emotions (anxiety and enjoyment), language aptitude, motivation, and working memory. Based on the research findings, recommendations are made on ways to apply research findings to pedagogy from five perspectives: changing ID propensities, adapting instruction to mitigate or cancel ID effects, matching ID profile and instruction type, using hybrid instruction, and providing choice. The chapter concludes by providing an overview of the significance and contributions of this volume and highlighting prominent findings of the included chapters.

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L'Arengario Studio Bibliografico, 2024

"Ma i futuristi? Marinetti partito volontario per la guerra, era fra i sostenitori tanto dell’idea imperiale che della superiorità del genio italiano. Inneggiavano al Duce senza riserve, per la gran parte erano iscritti alla Confederazione Fascista dei Professionisti e degli Artisti, tuttavia la propaganda ministeriale non annovera nessuno di loro fra i propri principali creatori. Le immagini più diffuse sono quelle di Metlicovitz, Dudovich, Roveroni, Boccasile e altri artisti capaci di modulare le istanze futuriste e moderniste sull’immaginario popolare. Sono presenti nelle grandi mostre (La Quadriennale di Roma, la Biennale di Venezia, la seconda mostra di Plastica Murale), le loro opere vengono acquisite da alcuni enti pubblici ma gli artisti “passatisti”, figurativi e realisti tanto quanto gli scrittori, erano molto più adeguati all’estetica del regime. In quel momento c’era in tutti il sentimento dell’orgoglio nazionale e la convinzione di magnifiche sorti e progressive, l’orrore doveva ancora venire. I futuristi continuavano a produrre immagini e testi che non avevano alcuna presa se non sui giovani che ne imitavano lo stile e le forme nei propri giornali (tipici i numeri unici universitari)" (dal testo introduttivo). - - - - "But what about the Futurists? Marinetti, volunteered for the war, was among the supporters of both the imperial idea and the superiority of Italian genius. They enthusiastically praised the “Duce”, most of them being members of the Fascist Confederation of Professionals and Artists. However, the ministerial propaganda did not count any of them among its primary creators. The most widespread images were those by Metlicovitz, Dudovich, Roveroni, Boccasile, and other artists capable of blending Futurist and Modernist ideas with popular imagery. They were present in major exhibitions (such as the Rome Quadriennale, the Venice Biennale, and the second Mural Plastic Arts exhibition), their works were acquired by some public institutions, but figurative and realist “passatisti” along with traditionalist writers, were much more aligned with the regime's aesthetic".