Donald Trump’s Re-election Prospects

IGDS Working Papers, 2020

On the announcement of Donald Trump's Presidential victory in November 2016, I published a paper entitled "The triumph of Trump and the failure of the intellectuals". I argued that the rise of Trump to power and the failure of the intellectuals in the media and academia to predict this momentous event, had similar origins. The failure of orthodox social scientists to develop a general dynamic theory of human society had not only contributed to the economic conditions (through flawed policy advice) that Trump exploited, but also to their inability to envisage this eventuality. My 2016 paper attempted to explain these outcomes in terms of the exhaustion of America's old dynamic strategy, the resulting rise in strategic frustration, and the critical need to find an elusive replacement dynamic strategy. This was based on my 'dynamic-strategy theory' and historical examination. In the current paper I expand on this explanation, review Trump's term as President, evaluate his re-election prospects, and discuss the implications for America's future. I conclude that America is at an historical crossroad and that its future is precariously placed. Since I wrote this paper, Donald Trump has been defeated by Joe Biden at the November 2020 Presidential election. What impact will this have on America's future? See my latest paper "America makes its choice of futures! But will it catch the next great wave of history?". In November 2024 Trump was returned to the White House. What does the future hold for America and the world? See my latest paper “Make America Great Again. The strategic roadmap”. IGDS Working Paper # 49 (November 2024).

Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties

Sociologia, Problemas e Práticas

This article identifies the long-term bases of Republican electoral dominance. It then highlights the specific factors that allowed Trump to win in 2016. Third, it enumerates the policies that Trump and Congressional Republicans will be able to implement because they control the Federal government. Finally, it discusses the opportunities for opposition to Trump and speculates on the likelihood that those efforts will be successful and how unanticipated events might strengthen or undermine Republican power.

[This essay first appeared on the LA Progressive website on 11/7/2024.] For many progressives and other critics of Donald Trump keeping hope alive will be difficult after our 2024 election. But we all must try. In the past such progressive leaders as Martin Luther King, Jr., Jesse Jackson, Nelson Mandela, and Barack Obama have urged us to “keep hope alive.” In addition, psychologists and philosophers have told us that hope is good for us. To maintain our hopes we should remember: 1) Almost half of our voters opposed Trump (about 47 % voted for Harris); 2) Many of those who voted for Trump were more confused than evil; 3) As Harris suggested in her concession speech, Trump’s election victory is only one battle in a long struggle over the direction of our country; 4) The future of our country is still open-ended, with results depending partly on how we all react to Trump’s proposed policies; and 5) The values and justice we progressives fight for, especially regarding climate change, are just too important, especially for younger people, to abandon. Work, persistence, and patience should be our watchwords.

2021

The 2020 general election turned out more American voters than any other election, its monumental stakes commanding the attention of the world. While the focus in the race’s aftermath has primarily been the top of the ticket, the rebuke of President Trump’s time in office, the equally important down-ballot races have been largely passed over. Many major political analysts like the Cook Political Report predicted that Democrats would expand their House majority by 5-10 seats. Yet, the Democratic Party ended up losing 10 seats1. During the certification of election results, I collected data on incumbents in the US House of Representatives in their re-election bids. The paper examines performance of 2020 incumbents relative to 2018, and the factors which caused change in vote share. Findings suggest that the GOP had an even more successful down-ballot campaign than reported and highlights the absence of certain systemic factors once assumed to weigh heavily on incumbency advantage. Sou...

In the aftermath of the American presidential elections, streets in several cities of America rocked with the slogan “Not My President”. This sloganeering rose against a person who went into election (and won the same) with a campaign catchphrase ‘Make America Great Again’. The protestors termed his win ‘unusual’, ‘unexpected’ and ‘unconventional’ and feared the ways he would realize his dream of making America great again! Mr Donald John Trump, a real estate mogul, businessman, pageant owner and a billionaire reality TV star is the new President of United States of America. Defeating all pollsters’ predictions, crushing the media agenda and undermining the popular votes, he surged to victory and set a new paradigm of the American character of the presidential candidate. His win should be looked at with a deeper insight and meaning crossing beyond the Democratic and Republican Party politics.

The war is not meant to be won; it is meant to be continuous.-George Orwell Watch what we do, not what we say.-John Mitchell, Attorney General under Richard Nixon Let me be perfectly clear (Nixon said that). I want Biden to win in a landslide, win back the Senate, pick the next few Supreme Court Justices and send Trumpus (Trump = us) out beyond the safety of presidential immunity, where he can get prosecuted for at least some of his crimes. However, for me (in California) and most of you who live in reliably red or blue states, our votes are meaningless. If your passion remains strong, then work for him in the small number of states other than your own that will actually be in play, or work for local progressive candidates.

Society

Legislative Studies Quarterly, 2020

Iran Daily Newspaper

Are you surprised by the choice of Donald Trump? The election of President Donald Trump was never out of the question and he clearly presented a strong electoral threat to the American political establishment-whether to the Democratic or Republican parties. His election, while surprising, was always in the realm of possibility, especially as popular disillusionment against the current state of affairs grew. While the election was shocking to the majority of political analysts in the United States and the world, a longer view of America's history reveals that anti-establishment candidates have been elected at critical