An overloaded computer must finish what it starts and not start what will fail or hang. A congestion management algorithm the author developed, and Siemens Corporation patented for telecom products, effectively manages traffic overload... more
An overloaded computer must finish what it starts and not start what will fail or hang. A congestion management algorithm the author developed, and Siemens Corporation patented for telecom products, effectively manages traffic overload with its unique formulation of Exponential Smoothing forecasting. Siemens filed for exclusive rights to this technique in 2003 and obtained US patent US7301903B2 in 2007 with this author, an employee at the time of the filing, the sole inventor. A computer program, written in C language, which exercises the methodology is listed at the end of this document and available on GitHub.
The deregulation of the Electricity sector in US has led to a tremendous increase in the inter-regional wholesale electricity trade between neighboring utilities or regions. Valuable insights into such imports/exports ahead of time have... more
The deregulation of the Electricity sector in US has led to a tremendous increase in the inter-regional wholesale electricity trade between neighboring utilities or regions. Valuable insights into such imports/exports ahead of time have become crucial market intelligence for the various academicians and market players associated with the industry. In this paper, it is demonstrated that the Box-Jenkins SARIMA (Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) and transfer function methodologies can be successfully employed as the statistical tools for the task of short-term forecasting of the power flows over major transmission interties. The accuracy of this method is illustrated by presenting the example of forecasting the combined power flow over two major transmission interties of the US Pacific Northwest region, namely the Pacific AC intertie and the Pacific DC intertie.
