Today
These five economists make a bold prediction on next rate cut
Analysts at Barrenjoey, Deloitte, KPMG, Judo Bank and Oxford Economics are tipping that the Reserve Bank will keep rates on hold on February 18.
- 3 mins ago
- Cecile Lefort
This Month
Meet the most accurate economic forecaster of 2024
The Reserve Bank will cut the cash rate, according to Paul Bloxham, but don’t count on a big drop in borrowing costs as this cycle will be a short one.
- Cecile Lefort
Top forecaster Paul Bloxham says trade war changes the RBA path
HSBC’s chief economist says the RBA will only cut twice in 2025, beginning this month, and once in 2026.
- Cecile Lefort
January
- Opinion
- Interest rates
Housing market will welcome RBA rate cuts
The beleaguered residential property market will be one key transmission mechanism through which the RBA’s interest rate relief will affect the wider economy.
- Christopher Joye
US Fed cools rate cut talk as prospects of RBA easing balloon
If Michele Bullock holds the cash rate steady on February 18, it will represent the most counter-consensus decision since that of Glenn Stevens in April 2015.
- Cecile Lefort
Major banks close to consensus on February interest rate cut call
Traders imply an 80 per cent chance of an interest rate cut next month to 4.1 per cent though the Reserve Bank could opt to wait for more data.
- Cecile Lefort
- Opinion
- Government debt
‘The numbers are breathtaking’: Qld’s interest bill worth 11 new hospitals
The states’ debt-servicing costs will probably continue to skyrocket as investors demand compensation for their fiscally reckless ways.
- Christopher Joye
Why these investors aren’t worried about Trump tariffs yet
Fund managers are hopeful the new US president recognises that tariffs are more effective as a threat than being acted on.
- Cecile Lefort
- Opinion
- Bonds
Why Donald Trump needs to mind the gaps
A dispersion of economic outcomes helped the US president return to the White House, but he faces the task of reorienting this phenomenon.
- Mohamed El-Erian
Die-hard bond traders bet the next Fed move is higher, not lower
A blowout US jobs report has prompted a small corner of the bond market to start pricing in the possibility of rate hike in the US this year.
- Liz Capo McCormick and Ye Xie
Four reasons investors should be very nervous in 2025
Alarm bells are ringing for fund managers and economists about the mounting threat of asset bubbles, which may trigger chaos in financial markets.
- Cecile Lefort
Why Tim Toohey is switching to cash
Tim Toohey from Yarra Capital says fewer RBA board meetings will mean less policy agility to react to monetary turning points.
- Cecile Lefort
- Opinion
- Bonds
How Trump could (finally) unleash $5.8 trillion of private money
A new era dawns for investors on the promise of deregulation and tax cuts under Donald Trump. Will they get the certainty needed to put all that dry power back to work?
- Katrina King
Bond markets stick with early rate cut after jobs blowout
While bond investors modestly tempered RBA rate cut bets after jobs data smashed expectations, they have still priced in a strong chance for a move in February.
- Cecile Lefort
Bond turmoil won’t derail RBA’s rate cut plan
Despite bond yields spiking around the world, analysts say the Reserve Bank is still on track to cut interest rates this year.
- Cecile Lefort
ASX to drop as markets fret currency slump will put off rate cut
The Australian dollar has fallen below a crucial threshold when measured against important trade partners, complicating the RBA’s assessment of interest rates.
- Cecile Lefort
- Opinion
- Monetary policy
A February interest rate cut is a goer if RBA changes one thing
Should the Reserve Bank downwardly revise its 4.5 per cent estimate of full employment, the first reduction will happen in just a few weeks.
- Stephen Miller
Fed gets greenlight to, at least, slow rate cuts: Wall Street view
Bank of America thinks that the US rate-cutting cycle is over, though Oxford Economics is still holding to its base forecast of three cuts, starting in March.
- Timothy Moore
Why the falling $A could delay RBA rate cuts
The Aussie dollar hit a fresh two-year low, prompting strategists to raise the alarm that it will hold up inflation and may delay the first RBA rate cut of 2025.
- Cecile Lefort
The books Australian economists loved in 2024
The Shortest History of Economics by Andrew Leigh ranked as one of the most popular books among our most prolific readers.
- Cecile Lefort
Reserve Bank rate cut hopes skirt federal election decider
Stubborn inflation, a tight jobs market and weak productivity thwarted interest rate relief in 2024. The Financial Review’s economist survey predicts that will change in May.
- Cecile Lefort
December 2024
Traders dial up bets for February RBA rate cut
Money markets are slowly dialling up expectations for an early cut from the Reserve Bank in 2025. It’s a different story for New Zealand, which is now in a recession.
- Cecile Lefort and Sarah Jones
Why Australians should ditch Europe this Christmas
After a dire year for the currency, those heading to the northern hemisphere should consider looking elsewhere to get the most bang for their buck.
- Cecile Lefort
What economists think about the RBA’s board shake-up
Renee Fry-McKibbin and Marnie Baker’s appointments were met with mixed reaction, with markets still betting on a one-in-two chance of an early 2025 rate cut.
- Cecile Lefort
Pace of US rate cuts set to slow in 2025: Wall St economists
The probability of a rate cut this month has risen, though the outlook is less clear as inflation continues to hold above the Federal Reserve’s 2 per cent target.
- Timothy Moore
