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    Structured Decision Making
    Structured Decision Making
    Structured Decision Making
    Ebook61 pages42 minutes

    Structured Decision Making

    By Andreas Michael Theodorou

    ()

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    About this ebook

    In today’s world, one is inundated with a great amount of data which is necessary to be analysed and utilized in order to reach the right conclusions. Someone who does not know the method or skills which are essential in order to make consistently beneficial or correct decisions, resembles a person wondering in a dark forest without a compass or source of light. Fortunately, for a formal or structured process of decision making, there are facilitating methods and tools which effectively represent the equivalent of a compass and lighting source for this important process. The book introduces, on elementary level, the concepts of “Probability”, “mathematical Expectation” and “Risk evaluation or analysis”, which together form the support base for the process of correct evaluation of data. This structure enables one to reach a useful or beneficial decision and select the best option out of a range of options with consistency and efficiency.
    Numerous examples are offered, during the discussion, which help to clarify all elements involved in the definition and application of these concepts

    LanguageEnglish
    PublisherAndreas Michael Theodorou
    Release dateSep 22, 2015
    ISBN9781311707895
    Structured Decision Making
    Author

    Andreas Michael Theodorou

    Born in the island Cyprus to a deeply religious family, grew up amidst the liberation struggle against colonialism and the subsequent intercommunal fighting. Completing his high school education on the island, he continued his studies in Greece obtaining a diploma in light current engineering. He got married to his childhood sweetheart and they are still happily married with two children, both graduates and successful entrepreneurs in the field of Information Technology. Due to the Turkish invasion of Cyprus he never returned to the island, emigrating instead to South Africa where he started working in a manufacturing company as a technician. In parallel he continued his studies and obtained a diploma in Datametrics (Physics and Computer Science) from the University of South Africa. He remained all his working life with the same company moving through the ranks of Manager, Production Director and eventually Managing Director. He retired a few years ago and he found the time to get involved with his real hobby of software development and design of all sorts of applications. Becoming an author was never among his intentions but, as you will realize reading his book titled "A Grain of Sand", he was left with no alternative.

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      Book preview

      Structured Decision Making - Andreas Michael Theodorou

      Structured Decision Making

      By Andreas Michael Theodorou

      Copyright 2015 Andreas Michael Theodorou

      A Smashwords Edition

      ****~~~~~****

      License Notes:

      This eBook is free for private use only. It may be copied, distributed, reposted, reprinted and shared, provided it appears in its entirety without alteration and the reader is not charged to access it.

      ****~~~~****

      Table of Contents

      Prologue

      Chapter 1- Probability

      Chapter 2 - Mathematical Expectation

      CHAPTER 3 - Risk Analysis in Decision Making

      Epilogue

      About the Author

      Other Titles by Andreas Michael Theodorou

      Prologue

      Except when sleeping and nearly at every single moment in life, one is called to make a decision or select an option out of a range of options, so that one may successfully overcome adversities or obstacles blocking the way forward. Whatever is decided has an an effect or impact, small, big or unimportant on one’s future. Beneficial decisions brighten the life-path and most of the time bring success, while thoughtless or damaging ones place obstacles in one’s way and may block one’s attempts to achieve one’s plan and desires in life. Due to the importance of decisions, one needs to be careful so that they are not derived through a haphazard evaluation method, at random or without all possible after-effects taken under serious consideration. It is therefore necessary that a structured way of evaluating the available information be devised, removing, if possible, emotions, feelings and false perceptions which can distort proper and unbiased thinking

      The objective of this short publication is to present, explain and analyze a formal method of evaluating data, so that people, especially those involved in high risk decision making, reach the most beneficial conclusion in a logical and structured manner. For this purpose, it is necessary that three concepts are introduced, at elementary level. These are the concepts of probability, of mathematical expectation and of risk analysis. The following Chapters provide basic but adequate information and examples of how these concepts are utilized in order to provide objective indicators and pointers which facilitate structured decision making. These concepts find applications in many fields including statistical analysis, gaming, financial investments, insurance and many others. One requires extensive knowledge of advanced mathematics in order to fully comprehend this wide spectrum of applications, however for the discussion in this book this requirement has been bypassed to a great extent, without affecting the overall understanding of the subject. This was possible because the subject of statistical analysis, which requires the use of combinational theory and advanced calculus, is not directly used in the structured decision making process. It is hoped that the elementary introduction into these useful concepts will not only provide the correct platform for beneficial and profitable decision making but it will also trigger one’s interest to delve deeper and study further their application in other spheres of daily life.

      Back to Table of Contents

      CHAPTER 1- Probability

      The likelihood of a particular event happening, when the same situation arises a great number of times, is approximated by the ratio of the number of the outcomes corresponding to the event happening, over the total number of the situation repetitions. This ratio is usually expressed as a percentage and is called the probability of the event materializing. If the probability p of the event taking place is known, it is obvious that the probability q of the event not taking place is also known and can be readily calculated from the simple formula:

      q = 100 - p

      If for example a particular situation has

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