Simulating Electric Vehicle Diffusion and Charging Activities in France and Germany †
Abstract
:1. Introduction
How is it possible to combine the modeling of PEV adoption, charging behavior, and load-shifting potentials in energy-system analysis for France and Germany?
2. Related Work
3. Method: A Hybrid Modelling Approach
3.1. Plug-In Electric Vehicle (PEV) Diffusion and Adoption
3.1.1. Bass Diffusion Model
3.1.2. Binary Logistic PEV Adoption Model
3.1.3. Hybrid PEV Diffusion Modeling Approach
3.2. PEV Charging
4. Results
4.1. PEV Diffusion and Adoption
4.2. PEV Charging
4.3. Effects of Re-Sampling Approach
5. Discussion
5.1. Hybrid Diffusion and Adoption Model for PEV
5.2. Sensitivity Analysis for PEV Charging
5.3. Limitations
6. Conclusions and Outlook
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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PEV Stock | France | Germany | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
End 2009 | - | [47] | 3032 | [48] |
End 2010 | 3368 | 4404 | ||
End 2011 | 6167 | 8670 | ||
End 2012 | 12,805 | 13,582 | ||
End 2013 | 22,217 | 23,208 | ||
End 2014 | 33,595 | 36,175 | ||
End 2015 | 54,282 | 48,688 | ||
End 2016 | 79,856 | 54,997 | ||
Mid 2017 [1] | 101,799 | 92,731 | ||
Expectation 2030 | 6,000,000 [49] | 6,000,000 [50] | ||
Total vehicle stock (M) * | 32,675,972 [47] | 45,803,560 [48] |
Parameter | France | Germany | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Mean | Std. Dev. | Mean | Std. Dev. | |
0.32 | 0.004 | 0.31 | 0.0015 | |
2008.22 | 5.82 | 2010.01 | 1.05 | |
R2 | ~1 | ~1 |
France | Germany | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Original Sample | Reduced Sample | Original Sample | Reduced Sample | ||
PEV adopters charging in sample | 4942 | 967 | 4487 | 930 | |
Represented number of PEV adopters charging | 5.9 mn | 6.0 mn | 5.5 mn | 5.1 mn | |
Charging events of sampled PEV adopters | 8873 | 1700 | 8590 | 1756 | |
Represented charging events | 11.8 mn | 12.2 mn | 10.4 mn | 9.5 mn | |
Plug-in time | Mean | 10.36 h | 9.94 h | 9.93 h | 10.59 h |
Std. Dev. | 7.23 h | 7.76 h | 7.75 h | 7.24 h | |
Median | 9.67 h | 11.64 h | 11.42 h | 9.58 h | |
Active charging time | Mean | 1.56 h | 1.35 h | 1.39 h | 1.70 h |
Std. Dev. | 2.18 h | 2.32 h | 2.39 h | 2.19 h | |
Median | 0.82 h | 0.77 h | 0.79 h | 0.82 h | |
Load-shifting potential | Mean | 8.80 h | 8.59 h | 8.53 h | 8.88 h |
Std. Dev. | 7.12 h | 7.59 h | 7.58 h | 7.16 h | |
Median | 7.81 h | 9.09 h | 8.66 h | 7.89 h | |
Energy charged per charging event | Mean | 5.77 kWh | 4.99 kWh | 5.15 kWh | 6.31 kWh |
Std. Dev. | 8.07 kWh | 8.60 kWh | 8.86 kWh | 8.12 kWh | |
Median | 3.04 kWh | 2.84 kWh | 2.92 kWh | 3.04 kWh | |
Total energy charged per day | 60.82 GWh | 60.82 GWh | 59.96 GWh | 59.96 GWh | |
Total energy directly charged per day | 1.65 GWh | 2.26 GWh | 2.06 GWh | 2.92 GWh | |
Total energy flexibly charged per day | 59.16 GWh | 58.56 GWh | 57.90 GWh | 57.04 GWh |
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Ensslen, A.; Will, C.; Jochem, P. Simulating Electric Vehicle Diffusion and Charging Activities in France and Germany. World Electr. Veh. J. 2019, 10, 73. https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj10040073
Ensslen A, Will C, Jochem P. Simulating Electric Vehicle Diffusion and Charging Activities in France and Germany. World Electric Vehicle Journal. 2019; 10(4):73. https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj10040073
Chicago/Turabian StyleEnsslen, Axel, Christian Will, and Patrick Jochem. 2019. "Simulating Electric Vehicle Diffusion and Charging Activities in France and Germany" World Electric Vehicle Journal 10, no. 4: 73. https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj10040073