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Climate

Climate is a scientific, peer-reviewed, open access journal of climate science published online monthly by MDPI. The American Society of Adaptation Professionals (ASAP) is affiliated with Climate and its members receive discounts on the article processing charges.

Open Access— free for readers, with article processing charges (APC) paid by authors or their institutions.
High Visibility: indexed within Scopus, ESCI (Web of Science), GeoRef, AGRIS, and other databases.
Journal Rank: JCR - Q2 (Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences) / CiteScore - Q2 (Atmospheric Science)
Rapid Publication: manuscripts are peer-reviewed and a first decision is provided to authors approximately 19.7 days after submission; acceptance to publication is undertaken in 2.9 days (median values for papers published in this journal in the second half of 2024).
Recognition of Reviewers: reviewers who provide timely, thorough peer-review reports receive vouchers entitling them to a discount on the APC of their next publication in any MDPI journal, in appreciation of the work done.

Impact Factor: 3.0 (2023); 5-Year Impact Factor: 3.3 (2023)

Imprint Information Journal Flyer Open Access ISSN: 2225-1154

Latest Articles

39 pages, 12565 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Integrating Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Change Projections to Assess Future Hydrological Responses: A CMIP6-Based Multi-Scenario Approach in the Omo–Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia

by Paulos Lukas, Assefa M. Melesse and Tadesse Tujuba Kenea

Climate 2025, 13(3), 51; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030051 - 28 Feb 2025

It is imperative to assess and comprehend the hydrological processes of the river basin in light of the potential effects of land use/land cover and climate changes. The study’s main objective was to evaluate hydrologic response of water balance components to the projected [...] Read more.

It is imperative to assess and comprehend the hydrological processes of the river basin in light of the potential effects of land use/land cover and climate changes. The study’s main objective was to evaluate hydrologic response of water balance components to the projected land use/land cover (LULC) and climate changes in the Omo–Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia. The study employed historical precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature data from meteorological stations, projected LULC change from module for land use simulation and evaluation (MOLUSCE) output, and climate change scenarios from coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models (GCMs). Landsat thematic mapper (TM) (2007) enhanced thematic mapper plus (ETM+) (2016), and operational land imager (OLI) (2023) image data were utilized for LULC change analysis and used as input in MOLUSCE simulation to predict future LULC changes for 2047, 2073, and 2100. The predictive capacity of the model was evaluated using performance evaluation metrics such as Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), the coefficient of determination (R2), and percent bias (PBIAS). The bias correction and downscaling of CMIP6 GCMs was performed via CMhyd. According to the present study’s findings, rainfall will drop by up to 24% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s while evapotranspiration will increase by 21%. The findings of this study indicate that in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s time periods, the average annual Tmax will increase by 5.1, 7.3, and 8.7%, respectively under the SSP126 scenario, by 5.2, 10.5, and 14.9%, respectively under the SSP245 scenario, by 4.7, 11.3, and 20.7%, respectively, under the SSP585 scenario while Tmin will increase by 8.7, 13.1, and 14.6%, respectively, under the SSP126 scenario, by 1.5, 18.2, and 27%, respectively, under the SSP245 scenario, and by 4.7, 30.7, and 48.2%, respectively, under the SSP585 scenario. Future changes in the annual average Tmax, Tmin, and precipitation could have a significant effect on surface and subsurface hydrology, reservoir sedimentation, hydroelectric power generation, and agricultural production in the OGRB. Considering the significant and long-term effects of climate and LULC changes on surface runoff, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge in the Omo–Gibe River Basin, the following recommendations are essential for efficient water resource management and ecological preservation. National, regional, and local governments, as well as non-governmental organizations, should develop and implement a robust water resources management plan, promote afforestation and reforestation programs, install high-quality hydrological and meteorological data collection mechanisms, and strengthen monitoring and early warning systems in the Omo–Gibe River Basin. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modelling for the Influences of Climate and Landscape Processes on Hydrology)

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26 pages, 359 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Coalition Formation with Cooperation-Enhancing Transfers When Players Are Heterogeneous and Inequality-Averse

by Marco Rogna and Carla Vogt

Climate 2025, 13(3), 50; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030050 - 28 Feb 2025

Obtaining significant levels of cooperation in public goods and environmental games, under the assumption of players being purely selfish, is usually prevented by the problem of free riding. Coalitions, in fact, generally fail to be internally stable, and this causes a serious under-provision [...] Read more.

Obtaining significant levels of cooperation in public goods and environmental games, under the assumption of players being purely selfish, is usually prevented by the problem of free riding. Coalitions, in fact, generally fail to be internally stable, and this causes a serious under-provision of the public good, together with a significant welfare loss. The assumption of relational preferences, capable of better explaining economic behaviours in laboratory experiments, helps to foster cooperation, but, without adequate transfer scheme, no substantial improvements are reached. The present paper proposes a cooperation-enhancing transfer scheme under the assumption of players having Fehr and Schmidt utility functions, whose objectives are to guarantee internal stability and to maximize the sum of the utilities of coalition members. The transfer scheme is tested on a public goods contribution game parameterized on the data provided by the RICE model and benchmarked with other popular transfer schemes in environmental economics. The proposed scheme outperforms its benchmarking counterparts in stabilizing coalitions, and sensibly increases cooperation compared to the absence of transfers. Furthermore, for high but not extreme values of the parameter governing the intensity of dis-utility from disadvantageous inequality, it manages to support very large coalitions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Policy, Governance, and Social Equity)

14 pages, 3483 KiB

Open AccessArticle

From Optimism to Risk: The Impact of Climate Change on Temperature Sums in Central Europe

by Martin Minárik, Vladimír Kišš, Agnieszka Ziernicka-Wojtaszek, Martin Prčík, Ján Čimo and Katarína Mikulová

Climate 2025, 13(3), 49; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030049 - 28 Feb 2025

This study examines the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Poland, focusing on temperature sums influencing the growing season. Using meteorological data from 2001 to 2020, the research analyses the onset and termination of temperatures ≥5 [...] Read more.

This study examines the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Poland, focusing on temperature sums influencing the growing season. Using meteorological data from 2001 to 2020, the research analyses the onset and termination of temperatures ≥5 °C (growing season). Temperature sums for two periods (2001–2010, 2011–2020) were calculated and future temperature projections under three scenarios (+1.5 °C, +2.6 °C, +3.6 °C) were developed. Results indicate regional variation in temperature sums, with 69% of the area falling in the 2900–3100 °C range, and Poland showing the highest percentage (81%). In the second decade of the 21st century, temperature sums shifted to the 3100–3300 °C range, affecting 63% of the region. The projections indicate a substantial increase in temperature sums, with the most optimistic scenario (+1.5 °C) leading to the dominance of the 3700–3900 °C range. The warmest areas (West Pannonian Basin), show a temperature sum of 4900–5100 °C. The comparison of predicted and observed temperature sums for 2011–2020 shows a minimal error (±3% in Slovakia and ±4% in Poland and the Czech Republic), confirming the projections. These findings highlight the importance of adaptive strategies in agriculture, particularly fruit farming, to mitigate the climate change effects. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Climate Dynamics and Modelling)

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19 pages, 3961 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Examining Recent Climate Changes in Ghana and a Comparison with Local Malaria Case Rates

by Ekuwa Adade, Steven Smith and Andrew Russell

Climate 2025, 13(3), 48; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030048 - 27 Feb 2025

This study investigated recent climate changes in Ghana and compared these changes to a new malaria case rates dataset for 2008–2022. The analysis was implemented at three spatial scales: national, regional, and by ‘climate zone’ (i.e., coastal, savannah, and forest zones). Descriptive statistics, [...] Read more.

This study investigated recent climate changes in Ghana and compared these changes to a new malaria case rates dataset for 2008–2022. The analysis was implemented at three spatial scales: national, regional, and by ‘climate zone’ (i.e., coastal, savannah, and forest zones). Descriptive statistics, qualitative discussion and correlation analysis were used to compare the climate variability to the malaria case rates. The climate analysis identified a general warming over the period with a mid-2010s maximum temperature peak in the forest and savannah zones, also associated with changes in the annual temperature cycle. Malaria case rates increased between 2008 and 2013, decreased sharply in 2014, and then decreased steadily from 2015 to 2022 for all scales. The sharp decline was broadly coincident with a change in the temperature regime that would provide a less favourable environment for the malaria vectors (precipitation and humidity showed no comparable changes). These coincident changes were particularly noticeable for an increase in maximum temperatures in the savannah and coastal zones in the key malaria transmission months after 2014. Correlation analysis showed statistically significant (p < 0.05) relationships between malaria case rates and mean and maximum temperatures at the national scale, and malaria case rates and mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures for the coastal climate zone (precipitation and humidity showed no significant correlations). However, more sophisticated methods are required to further understand this multidimensional system. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Health and Multidisciplinary Approaches)

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17 pages, 6963 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Projected Drought Intensification in the Büyük Menderes Basin Under CMIP6 Climate Scenarios

by Farzad Rotbeei, Mustafa Nuri Balov, Mir Jafar Sadegh Safari and Babak Vaheddoost

Climate 2025, 13(3), 47; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030047 - 26 Feb 2025

The amplitude and interval of drought events are expected to enhance in upcoming years resulting from global warming and climate alterations. Understanding future drought events’ potential impacts is important for effective regional adaptation and mitigation approaches. The main goal of this research is [...] Read more.

The amplitude and interval of drought events are expected to enhance in upcoming years resulting from global warming and climate alterations. Understanding future drought events’ potential impacts is important for effective regional adaptation and mitigation approaches. The main goal of this research is to study the impacts of climate change on drought in the Büyük Menderes Basin located in the Aegean region of western Türkiye by using the outcomes of three general circulation models (GCMs) from CMIP6 considering two different emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Following a bias correction using a linear scaling method, daily precipitation and temperature projections are used to compute the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The effectiveness of the GCMs in projecting precipitation and temperature is evaluated using observational data from the reference period (1985–2014). Future drought conditions are then assessed based on drought indices for three periods: 2015–2040 (near future), 2041–2070 (mid-term future), and 2071–2100 (late future). Consequently, the number of dry months is projected and expected to elevate, informed by SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, during the late-century timeframe (2071–2100) in comparison to the baseline period (1985–2014). The findings of this study offer an important understanding for crafting adaptation strategies aimed at reducing future drought impacts in the Büyük Menderes Basin in the face of changing climate conditions. Full article

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23 pages, 13840 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulation of Changes in Precipitation and Snowpack in a Warmer Climate over the Interior Western United States

by Yonggang Wang, Bart Geerts, Changhai Liu and Xiaoqin Jing

Climate 2025, 13(3), 46; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030046 - 24 Feb 2025

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on precipitation and snowpack in the interior western United States (IWUS) using two sets of convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations. One simulation represents the ~1990 climate, and another represents an ~2050 climate using [...] Read more.

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on precipitation and snowpack in the interior western United States (IWUS) using two sets of convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations. One simulation represents the ~1990 climate, and another represents an ~2050 climate using a pseudo-global warming approach. Climate perturbations for the future climate are given by the CMIP5 ensemble-mean global climate models under the high-end emission scenario. The study analyzes the projected changes in spatial patterns of seasonal precipitation and snowpack, with particular emphasis on the effects of elevation on orographic precipitation and snowpack changes in four key mountain ranges: the Montana Rockies, Greater Yellowstone area, Wasatch Range, and Colorado Rockies. The IWUS simulations reveal an increase in annual precipitation across the majority of the IWUS in this warmer climate, driven by more frequent heavy to extreme precipitation events. Winter precipitation is projected to increase across the domain, while summer precipitation is expected to decrease, particularly in the High Plains. Snow-to-precipitation ratios and snow water equivalent are expected to decrease, especially at lower elevations, while snowpack melt is projected to occur earlier by up to 26 days in the ~2050 climate, highlighting significant impacts on regional water resources and hydrological management. Full article

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13 pages, 1212 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Clean Air Benefits and Climate Penalty: A Health Impact Analysis of Mortality Trends in the Mid-South Region, USA

by Chunrong Jia, Hongmei Zhang, Namuun Batbaatar, Abu Mohd Naser, Ying Li and Ilias Kavouras

Climate 2025, 13(3), 45; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030045 - 22 Feb 2025

The lowering air pollution in the US has brought significant health benefits; however, climate change may offset the benefits by increasing the temperature and worsening air quality. This study aimed to estimate the mortality changes due to air pollution reductions and evaluate the [...] Read more.

The lowering air pollution in the US has brought significant health benefits; however, climate change may offset the benefits by increasing the temperature and worsening air quality. This study aimed to estimate the mortality changes due to air pollution reductions and evaluate the potential climate penalty in the Mid-South Region of the US. Daily concentrations of PM_2.5 and ozone measured at local monitoring stations in 1999–2019 were extracted from the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Air Quality System. Meteorological data for the same period were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Local Climatological Data. Annual average age-adjusted all-cause mortality rates (MRs) were downloaded from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s WONDERS Databases. MRs attributable to exposure to PM_2.5, ozone, and high temperatures in warm months were estimated using their corresponding health impact functions. Using Year 1999 as the baseline, contributions of environmental changes to MR reductions were calculated. Results showed that annual average concentrations of PM_2.5 and ozone decreased by 46% and 23% in 2019, respectively, compared with the base year; meanwhile, the mean daily temperature in the warm season fluctuated and displayed an insignificant increasing trend (Kendall’s tau = 0.16, p = 0.30). MRs displayed a significant decreasing trend and dropped by 215 deaths/100,000 person-year in 2019. Lower PM_2.5 and ozone concentrations were estimated to reduce 59 and 30 deaths/100,000 person-year, respectively, contributing to 23% and 17% of MR reductions, respectively. The fluctuating temperatures had negligible impacts on mortality changes over the two-decade study period. This study suggests that improved air quality may have contributed to mortality reductions, while the climate penalty effects appeared to be insignificant in the Mid-South Region. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Confronting the Climate Change and Health Nexus: Interactions, Impacts, and Adaptation Strategies)

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18 pages, 18199 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Diel Variation in Summer Stream Temperature in an Idaho Desert Stream and Implications for Identifying Thermal Refuges

by Mel Campbell, Donna Delparte, Matthew Belt, Zhongqi Chen, Christopher C. Caudill and Trevor Caughlin

Climate 2025, 13(3), 44; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030044 - 22 Feb 2025

Thermal refuges in streams are essential for the survival of coldwater fish species such as Redband trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in landscapes with stressful or lethal stream temperatures. We utilized an uncrewed aerial system (UAS) mounted with thermal and natural color sensors [...] Read more.

Thermal refuges in streams are essential for the survival of coldwater fish species such as Redband trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in landscapes with stressful or lethal stream temperatures. We utilized an uncrewed aerial system (UAS) mounted with thermal and natural color sensors to conduct hourly flights over a 24 h period in the desert stream Little Jacks Creek during late summer when temperatures were near seasonal maximums and streamflow was near seasonal minimums. We used fine-resolution imagery to map stream temperatures and characterize how our thermal sensor exhibits variability across a diel period in an environment where thermal sensor viability had not yet been assessed. Thermal imagery from 3 out of 24 flights showed no significant differences when compared to true water temperatures from in-stream temperature loggers, which appeared to be highly dependent on atmospheric conditions. The thermal imagery (range of

9.17

to

21.04 °

C) consistently underestimated HOBO logger stream temperatures (range of

13.6

to

17.1 °

C) during cooler, nighttime flights and overestimated temperatures during hotter, afternoon hours, resulting in a global RMSE of 2.12

°

C. Between-flight RMSE values ranged from 0.53

°

C to 4.00

°

C, within the error range of the thermal sensor. The thermal data support existing findings of optimal hours for flying UAS thermal surveys and showed specific patterns in TIR sensor accuracy that were dependent on the time of flight. This study yields valuable lessons for future stream temperature data collection in environments with highly variable temperatures, aiding in the calibration of thermal sensors on UAS missions. Furthermore, our results provide insights into environmental stressors such as increased stream temperatures, which is vital for conservation efforts for organisms that rely on coldwater refuges within desert streams. Full article

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39 pages, 4034 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Feedback Trends with ECS from Energy Rates: Feedback Doubling and the Vital Need for Solar Geoengineering

by Alec Feinberg

Climate 2025, 13(3), 43; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030043 - 21 Feb 2025

This paper provides climate feedback trends, quantifies the feedback-doubling (FD) period, considers urbanization influences, and provides related equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates using data from 1880 to 2024. Data modeling is accomplished by focusing on statistically significant stable normalized correlated rates (NCRs, i.e., [...] Read more.

This paper provides climate feedback trends, quantifies the feedback-doubling (FD) period, considers urbanization influences, and provides related equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates using data from 1880 to 2024. Data modeling is accomplished by focusing on statistically significant stable normalized correlated rates (NCRs, i.e., normalized related slopes). Estimates indicate that the global warming NCR is increasing by a factor of 1.65 to 2.33 times faster than the energy consumption NCR, from 1975 to 2024. The reason is feedback amplification. This is supported by the fact that the NCR for forcing and energy consumption shows approximate equivalency in the period studied. Results provide feedback yearly trend estimates at the 95% confidence level that key results will fall within the IPCC AR6 likely range. The projected 2017–2024 feedback amplification estimates, using the EC approach, range from 2.0 to 2.16, respectively. A feedback amplification of 2.0 (approximately equal to −2.74 Wm⁻² K⁻¹) doubles the forcing, indicating that in 2024, more than half of global warming (53.7%) is likely due to feedback. Relative to the feedback-doubling (FD) threshold (i.e., the point where feedback exceeds forcing), the FD overage is 3.7% in 2024. This is the amount of feedback exceeding the forcing portion found to have a surprisingly aggressive 3.1% to 3.9% estimated overage growth rate per decade. We now ask, shouldn’t we try to mitigate feedback as well as GHG forcing, and if forcing could be removed, would global warming fully “self-mitigate”? Additionally, CO₂ yearly increases are complex, with poor reduction progress. Therefore, this study’s risk assessment urgently recommends that supplementary “mild” annual solar geoengineering is necessary, to reduce the dominant aggressive feedback. SG reduces the primary solar warming source creating 62% higher mitigation efficiency than CDR. Urgency is enhanced since solar geoengineering must be timely and can take years to develop. This study also estimates that 75% to 90.5% (83% average) of the feedback problem is due to water vapor feedback (WVF). High WVF also plagues many cities needing local SG. Trend analysis indicates that by 2047, the earliest we may reach 10 billion people, feedback amplification could reach a value of 2.4 to 2.8. Furthermore, by 2082, the year estimated for 2× CO₂, at the current rate, feedback amplification could range from 2.88 to 3.71. This yields an ECS range from 2.4 °C to 3.07 °C, in reasonable agreement with the reported estimated range in AR6. An overview of recent urbanization forcing attribution indicates the ECS value may be lower by 10.7% if this forcing is considered. For numerous reasons, the lack of albedo urbanization Earth brightening requirements in the Paris Agreement, is unsettling. In addition, a model assesses effective forced feedback (EFF) temperature characteristics of up to 1.9 °C, providing interesting feedback insights that may relate to high GW land and pipeline temperature estimates. Lastly in addition to urbanization, solar geoengineering in the Arctic and Antarctic is advised. Worldwide efforts in GHG mitigation, with no significant work in SG, appears highly misdirected. Full article

(This article belongs to the Collection Adaptation and Mitigation Practices and Frameworks)

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18 pages, 1124 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Climate Change Exposure of Agriculture Within Regulated Groundwater Basins of the Southwestern United States

by Lauren E. Parker, Ning Zhang, Isaya Kisekka, John T. Abatzoglou, Emile H. Elias, Caitriana M. Steele and Steven M. Ostoja

Climate 2025, 13(2), 42; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13020042 - 16 Feb 2025

Agriculture is an important part of the economy of southwestern United States (Southwest). The production of food and fiber in the Southwest is supported by irrigation, much of which is sourced from groundwater. Climate projections suggest an increasing risk of drought and heat, [...] Read more.

Agriculture is an important part of the economy of southwestern United States (Southwest). The production of food and fiber in the Southwest is supported by irrigation, much of which is sourced from groundwater. Climate projections suggest an increasing risk of drought and heat, which can affect water supply and demand, and will challenge the future of agricultural production in the Southwest. Also, as groundwater in the Southwest is highly regulated, producers may not be able to readily rely on groundwater to meet increased demand. Climate exposure of five economically-important crops—alfalfa, cotton, pecans, pistachios, and processing tomatoes—was analyzed over twelve regulated groundwater basins by quantifying changes in a suite of both crop-specific and non-specific agroclimatic indicators between contemporary (1981–2020) and future (2045–2074, SSP2-4.5) climates. Generally, groundwater basins that are currently the most exposed to impactful climate conditions remain so under future climate. The crops with the greatest increase in exposure to their respective crop-specific indicators are cotton, which may be impacted by a ~180% increase in exposure to extreme heat days above 38 °C, and processing tomatoes, which may see a ~158% increase in exposure to high temperatures and reduced diurnal temperature range during flowering. These results improve understanding of the potential change in exposure to agroclimatic indicators, including crop-specific indicators, at the scale of regulated groundwater basins. This understanding provides useful information for the long-term implications of climate change on agriculture and agricultural water, and can inform adaptation efforts for coupled agricultural and water security in groundwater-dependent regions. These results may also be useful for assessing the adaptive potential of water conservation actions—some of which are outlined herein—or the suitability of other adaptation responses to the challenges that climate change will pose to agriculture. Full article

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23 pages, 2958 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Expected Impacts on Mediterranean Forest Species Under Climate Change

by Álvaro Enríquez-de-Salamanca

Climate 2025, 13(2), 41; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13020041 - 14 Feb 2025

Climate change affects tree species, altering their growth and distribution, with effects varying by region, although mostly negative in the Mediterranean. This study examines 27 tree species in central Iberia, in a continental Mediterranean climate, using GISs and climate models. It investigates changes [...] Read more.

Climate change affects tree species, altering their growth and distribution, with effects varying by region, although mostly negative in the Mediterranean. This study examines 27 tree species in central Iberia, in a continental Mediterranean climate, using GISs and climate models. It investigates changes in net primary productivity (NPP) under different climate scenarios, identifying species that are endangered or vulnerable. Currently, only 2.4% of forest stands are endangered, but 51.2% are vulnerable; by 2100, these figures could rise to 35.4% and 85.2%, respectively. A correlation between altitude and threat level was found, with mountain species facing lower risks. Species with higher threat levels are linked to high NPP or low NPP variability. Four species currently have no threatened stands, though they may in the future, except one introduced in high-elevation areas, which will be favoured by climate change. Climate change will induce migrations to higher altitudes, but these movements depend on the rate of change, population size, fragmentation, and human alteration of the environment. Migration will be more challenging for low-altitude species in heavily human-impacted areas. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Forest Ecosystems under Climate Change)

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19 pages, 250 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Perceptions of the Barriers to the Implementation of a Successful Climate Change Policy in Bulgaria

by Antonina Atanasova and Kliment Naydenov

Climate 2025, 13(2), 40; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13020040 - 13 Feb 2025

Climate change is increasingly recognized as a significant issue facing humanity. The World Health Organization (WHO) designates climate change as the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century. Bulgaria is under imminent threat from climate change. The country is projected to [...] Read more.

Climate change is increasingly recognized as a significant issue facing humanity. The World Health Organization (WHO) designates climate change as the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century. Bulgaria is under imminent threat from climate change. The country is projected to experience a temperature increase of up to 4 °C by 2100. This will lead to changes in precipitation patterns, resulting in numerous consequences. These include reduced water storage, impacts on public health, disruptions in agricultural production, stress on the country’s biodiversity and forests, damage to infrastructure and private property, changes in tourism patterns, and many other potential issues. Climate change has recently become a significant concern in Bulgaria due to its impact on ecosystems, the economy, society, and infrastructure. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the barriers to climate adaptation in Bulgaria, integrating sources from the literature with empirical data gathered from a survey. By employing cluster analysis, this research identifies five primary groups of barriers, offering a fresh perspective on the complexities involved in this process. The findings contribute to the existing body of knowledge on climate adaptation and hold the potential to guide policy development aimed at addressing these challenges. Full article

16 pages, 2860 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Analysis of the Dynamics of Hydroclimatic Extremes in Urban Areas: The Case of Grand-Nokoué in Benin, West Africa

by Vidjinnagni Vinasse Ametooyona Azagoun, Kossi Komi, Expédit Wilfrid Vissin and Komi Selom Klassou

Climate 2025, 13(2), 39; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13020039 - 12 Feb 2025

As global warming continues, extremes in key climate parameters will become more frequent. These extremes are one of the main challenges for the sustainability of cities. The aim of this study is to provide a better understanding of the evolution of extremes in [...] Read more.

As global warming continues, extremes in key climate parameters will become more frequent. These extremes are one of the main challenges for the sustainability of cities. The aim of this study is to provide a better understanding of the evolution of extremes in precipitation (pcp) and maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures in Grand-Nokoué to improve the resilience of the region. To this end, historical daily precipitation and maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature data from the Cotonou synoptic station were used from 1991 to 2020. First, the extreme events identified using the 99th percentile threshold were used to analyze their annual and monthly frequency. Secondly, a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was fitted to the annual maxima with a 95% confidence interval to determine the magnitude of the specific return periods. The parameters of this distribution were estimated using the method of L moments, considering non-stationarity. The results of the study showed significant upward trends in annual precipitation and minimum temperatures, with p-values of 0.04 and 0.001, respectively. Over the past decade, the number of extreme precipitation and Tmin events has exceeded the expected number. The model provides greater confidence for periods ≤ 50 years. Extreme values of three-day accumulations up to 68.21 mm for pcp, 79.38 °C for Tmin and 97.29 °C for Tmax are expected every two years. The results of this study can be used to monitor hydroclimatic hazards in the region. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Climate and Environment)

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16 pages, 2687 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Relationship Between the Occurrence of Fires and Family Farming in Municipalities in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

by Leonardo Pinto de Magalhães, Anderson de Souza Gallo, Guilherme Honório Fernandez, Adriana Cavalieri Sais and Renata Evangelista de Oliveira

Climate 2025, 13(2), 38; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13020038 - 11 Feb 2025

In recent years, particularly in 2024, there has been an escalation in the frequency and intensity of megafires in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. This state, the most industrialized in the country, has seen extensive land-use changes in recent decades, with agriculture [...] Read more.

In recent years, particularly in 2024, there has been an escalation in the frequency and intensity of megafires in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. This state, the most industrialized in the country, has seen extensive land-use changes in recent decades, with agriculture extending upon areas previously dedicated to other uses and forests. The practice of family farming, which is distinguished by its smaller operational areas and the majority involvement of the family that owns the land, has the potential to influence the occurrence of fires, but few studies have explored the link between agricultural practices (especially the difference between family and other farming types) and fire intensity. This study aims to assess whether the higher presence of family-farming establishments in different municipalities reduces fire incidents. The results indicate that the municipalities with the highest presence of family farming present lower percentages of burned areas. The increased diversity in crop types and the presence of forest cover within these municipalities have been identified as contributing factors to this reduced fire rate and burned areas. These findings underscore the need for public policies that support family farming as a strategy to reduce fires and protect vulnerable farmers in rural landscapes. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Adaptation Ways for Smallholder Farmers)

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19 pages, 3908 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Scaling Properties of Rainfall as a Basis for Intensity–Duration–Frequency Relationships and Their Spatial Distribution in Catalunya, NE Spain

by María del Carmen Casas-Castillo, Alba Llabrés-Brustenga, Raül Rodríguez-Solà, Anna Rius and Àngel Redaño

Climate 2025, 13(2), 37; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13020037 - 8 Feb 2025

The spatial distribution of rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) values, essential for hydrological applications, were estimated for Catalunya, Spain. From a larger database managed by the Meteorological Service of Catalunya and after rigorous quality control, 163 high-quality daily series spanning from 1942 to 2016, with [...] Read more.

The spatial distribution of rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) values, essential for hydrological applications, were estimated for Catalunya, Spain. From a larger database managed by the Meteorological Service of Catalunya and after rigorous quality control, 163 high-quality daily series spanning from 1942 to 2016, with an average length of 39.8 years and approximately one station per 200 km², were selected. A monofractal downscaling methodology was applied to derive rainfall intensities for sub-daily durations using the intensities from a reference 24 h duration as the basis, followed by spatial interpolations on a 1 km × 1 km grid. The scaling parameter values have been found to be higher in the northwestern mountainous areas, influenced by Atlantic climate, and lower in the central–western driest zones. A general negative gradient was observed toward the coastline, reflecting the increasing influence of the Mediterranean Sea. The IDF results are presented as spatial distribution maps, providing intensity–frequency estimates for durations between one hour and one day, and return periods between 2 and 200 years, with an estimated uncertainty below 12% for the 200-year return period, and lower for shorter return periods. These findings highlight the need to capture rainfall spatial variations for urban planning, flood control, and climate resilience efforts. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances of Flood Risk Assessment and Management)

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18 pages, 4831 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Future Projections of Clouds and Precipitation Patterns in South Asia: Insights from CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble Under SSP5 Scenarios

by Praneta Khardekar, Rohini Lakshman Bhawar, Vinay Kumar and Hemantkumar S. Chaudhari

Climate 2025, 13(2), 36; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13020036 - 8 Feb 2025

Projecting future changes in monsoon rainfall is crucial for effective water resource management, food security, and livestock sustainability in South Asia. This study assesses precipitation, total cloud cover (categorized by cloud top pressure), and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) across the region using Coupled [...] Read more.

Projecting future changes in monsoon rainfall is crucial for effective water resource management, food security, and livestock sustainability in South Asia. This study assesses precipitation, total cloud cover (categorized by cloud top pressure), and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) across the region using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data. A multi-model ensemble (MME) approach is employed to analyze future projections under the Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP5-8.5) scenario, which assumes radiative forcing will reach 8.5 W/m² by 2100. The MME projects a ~1.5 mm/day increase in total rainfall during 2081–2100. Convective and stratiform precipitation are expected to expand spatially, with convective rainfall increasing from 3 mm/day in historical simulations to 3.302 mm/day in the far future. Stratiform precipitation also shows an increase from 0.822 mm/day to 0.962 mm/day over the same period. A notable decrease in OLR (~60 W/m² along the Western Ghats) and an increase in high cloud cover suggest intensified monsoon rainfall. The pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) reveals reduced OLR in future scenarios (PCC ~0.77 vs. ~0.81 historically), likely due to cloud feedback mechanisms. These results highlight enhanced monsoonal activity under warming scenarios, with implications for regional climate adaptation. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coping with Flooding and Drought)

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21 pages, 1868 KiB

Open AccessReview

Climate Change and Arbovirus: A Review and Bibliometric Analysis

by Maryly Weyll Sant’Anna, Maurício Lamano Ferreira, Leonardo Ferreira da Silva and Pedro Luiz Côrtes

Climate 2025, 13(2), 35; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13020035 - 6 Feb 2025

The rise in Earth’s temperature is capable of influencing the occurrence of catastrophic natural events, contributing to outbreaks of arboviruses in endemic areas and new geographical regions. This study aimed to conduct a bibliometric review and analysis of research activities on climate change [...] Read more.

The rise in Earth’s temperature is capable of influencing the occurrence of catastrophic natural events, contributing to outbreaks of arboviruses in endemic areas and new geographical regions. This study aimed to conduct a bibliometric review and analysis of research activities on climate change with a focus on human arboviruses, using the Scopus database. A total of 1644 documents were found related to the topic between 1934 and 2023. The United States continues to lead in the number of academic publications. Dengue was the arbovirosis with the highest number of publications, followed by West Nile fever, Zika and chikungunya fever. Due to the rise in global temperature, a trend of arbovirus dissemination to non-endemic areas is observed, with a possible global increase in morbidity and mortality. Consequently, more effective measures are expected from epidemiological surveillance, vector control services, governmental authorities and, crucially, social engagement in combating and preventing new outbreaks. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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17 pages, 7075 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Snow Cover and Depth Climatology and Trends in Greece

by Ioannis Masloumidis, Stavros Dafis, George Kyros, Konstantinos Lagouvardos and Vassiliki Kotroni

Climate 2025, 13(2), 34; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13020034 - 6 Feb 2025

The rising surface temperatures driven by climate change have resulted in significant reductions in snow depth and snow cover duration globally, with pronounced impacts on snow-dependent regions. This study focuses on Greece, a region where snow plays a critical role in water resources [...] Read more.

The rising surface temperatures driven by climate change have resulted in significant reductions in snow depth and snow cover duration globally, with pronounced impacts on snow-dependent regions. This study focuses on Greece, a region where snow plays a critical role in water resources and winter tourism. Using numerical model reanalysis data spanning from 1991 to 2020, this study identifies statistically significant declining trends in snow depth and duration of snow cover across much of the country. The findings reveal considerable spatial and temporal variability, with the most pronounced reductions occurring in winter months and mountainous regions. Particularly affected are the northern and central mountainous areas, where snow cover days have decreased by up to 1.5 days per year. Ski resorts at lower elevations exhibit steeper declines in snow reliability compared to higher-altitude resorts, posing challenges to winter tourism. These trends underscore the urgency of adaptation strategies for climate resilience in snow-dependent sectors and the broader implications for water resource management in the region. Full article

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18 pages, 2266 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Soybean Yield Modeling and Analysis with Weather Dynamics in the Greater Mississippi River Basin

by Weiwei Xie, Yanbo Huang and Qingmin Meng

Climate 2025, 13(2), 33; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13020033 - 6 Feb 2025

Accurate crop yield prediction and modeling are essential for ensuring food security, optimizing resource allocation, and guiding policy decisions in agriculture, ultimately benefiting society at large. With the increasing threat of weather change, it is important to understand the impacts of weather dynamics [...] Read more.

Accurate crop yield prediction and modeling are essential for ensuring food security, optimizing resource allocation, and guiding policy decisions in agriculture, ultimately benefiting society at large. With the increasing threat of weather change, it is important to understand the impacts of weather dynamics on agricultural productivity, particularly for crucial crops like soybeans. This study considers the study area of the Greater Mississippi River Basin, where most soybeans are typically planted, with a large variety of weather across from the North to the South in the US. Leveraging the greenness and density measured by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite images, along with weather variables including mean precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature, we aim to uncover the relationships between these variables and soybean yield for different geographical and weather regions. Our analysis focuses on the four weather regions within the US: Very Cold, Cold, Mixed Humid, and Hot Humid, where most soybeans are planted in the Mississippi River Basin. The findings reveal that soybean yield in the Cold and Very Cold regions is positively correlated with minimum temperatures, whereas in the Mixed Humid and Hot Humid regions, negative correlations between maximum temperatures and yields are found. We identify a significant positive correlation between precipitation and soybean yield across all regions. In addition, the NDVI shows significant positive correlations with the soybean yield. Both linear and nonlinear regression models, including support vector machine and random forest models, are trained with remotely sensed data and weather data, showing a reliable and improved crop yield prediction. The findings of this study contribute to a better understanding of how soybean yield responds to climatic variations and will help the national agricultural management system in better monitoring and predicting crop yield when facing the increasing challenge of weather dynamics. Full article

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19 pages, 4919 KiB

Open AccessReview

A Systematic Review of Effective Measures to Resist Manipulative Information About Climate Change on Social Media

by Aliaksandr Herasimenka, Xianlingchen Wang and Ralph Schroeder

Climate 2025, 13(2), 32; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13020032 - 5 Feb 2025

We present a systematic review of peer-reviewed research into ways to mitigate the spread of manipulative information about climate change on social media (n = 38). Such information may include disinformation, harmful influence campaigns, or the unintentional spread of misleading information. We [...] Read more.

We present a systematic review of peer-reviewed research into ways to mitigate the spread of manipulative information about climate change on social media (n = 38). Such information may include disinformation, harmful influence campaigns, or the unintentional spread of misleading information. We find that the commonly recommended approaches to addressing manipulation of climate change belief include corrective information sharing and education campaigns targeting media literacy. However, most of the relevant research fails to test the approaches and interventions it proposes. We locate research gaps that include a lack of attention to the large commercial and political entities involved in generating and disseminating manipulation; video- and image-focused platforms; and the computational methods used to collect and analyze data. Evidence drawn from many studies demonstrates an emerging consensus about the policies required to resist climate change manipulation. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Policy, Governance, and Social Equity)

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