Journal Description
Economies
Economies
is an international, peer-reviewed, open access journal on development economics and macroeconomics, published monthly online by MDPI.
- Open Access— free for readers, with article processing charges (APC) paid by authors or their institutions.
- High Visibility: indexed within Scopus, ESCI (Web of Science), EconLit, EconBiz, RePEc, and other databases.
- Journal Rank: JCR - Q2 (Economics) / CiteScore - Q1 (Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous))
- Rapid Publication: manuscripts are peer-reviewed and a first decision is provided to authors approximately 21.9 days after submission; acceptance to publication is undertaken in 5.7 days (median values for papers published in this journal in the second half of 2024).
- Recognition of Reviewers: reviewers who provide timely, thorough peer-review reports receive vouchers entitling them to a discount on the APC of their next publication in any MDPI journal, in appreciation of the work done.
Impact Factor:
2.1 (2023);
5-Year Impact Factor:
2.2 (2023)
Latest Articles
Hayekian Hurdles: Challenges to Cryptocurrency as a Viable Basis for a New Monetary Order
Economies 2025, 13(1), 12; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010012 - 7 Jan 2025
Abstract
The rise of cryptocurrencies over the past decade has promised to challenge the dominance of fiat money systems and reshape monetary policy. However, recent developments, including market volatility and the collapse of key exchanges like FTX, have eroded public trust, raising skepticism of
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The rise of cryptocurrencies over the past decade has promised to challenge the dominance of fiat money systems and reshape monetary policy. However, recent developments, including market volatility and the collapse of key exchanges like FTX, have eroded public trust, raising skepticism of a feasible transition to a crypto-based monetary system. This paper explores why cryptocurrencies have not met the expectations of their proponents, particularly those who saw them as a step towards Friedrich Hayek’s vision for competitive currency issuance. While cryptocurrencies reflect some aspects of Hayek’s model, their instability—especially in Bitcoin-like assets—undermines their role as a reliable alternative to fiat money. The paper also considers how central bank independence and regulatory gaps further hinder the development of a robust cryptocurrency framework. Despite the continued relevance of Hayek’s ideas in today’s monetary landscape, the entrenched structures of modern central banks and the rise of Central Bank Digital Currencies suggest that a decentralised currency order remains unlikely in the near future.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Political Economy of Money)
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Dynamic Spillovers of Economic Policy Uncertainty: A TVP-VAR Analysis of Latin American and Global EPU Indices
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Nini Johana Marín-Rodríguez, Juan David González-Ruíz and Sergio Botero
Economies 2025, 13(1), 11; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010011 - 7 Jan 2025
Abstract
This study examines the dynamic interconnectedness of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) among Latin American economies—Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico—and significant international regions, including the United States, Europe, and Japan, as well as a global EPU index. Using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR)
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This study examines the dynamic interconnectedness of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) among Latin American economies—Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico—and significant international regions, including the United States, Europe, and Japan, as well as a global EPU index. Using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with monthly data, this study reveals the evolving spillover effects and dependencies capturing how uncertainty in one market can transmit across others on both regional and global scales. The findings highlight the significant impact of external EPU, particularly from the U.S. and global EPU sources on Latin America, positioning it as a primary recipient of international uncertainty. These results underscore the need for Latin American economies to adopt resilience strategies—such as trade diversification and regional cooperation—to mitigate vulnerabilities to global shocks. This study offers valuable insights into the mechanisms of economic uncertainty transmission, guiding policymakers in developing coordinated responses to reduce the effects of external volatility and foster regional economic stability.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Financial Market Volatility under Uncertainty)
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Does Investor Sentiment Influence South African ETF Flows During Different Market Conditions?
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Paidamoyo Aurleen Shenjere, Sune Ferreira-Schenk and Fabian Moodley
Economies 2025, 13(1), 10; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010010 - 7 Jan 2025
Abstract
The exponential growth in popularity of ETFs over the last three decades has solidified ETFs as an essential component of many investors’ portfolios. Investor sentiment is one of the factors that influence market returns of ETFs during times of market volatility. This article
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The exponential growth in popularity of ETFs over the last three decades has solidified ETFs as an essential component of many investors’ portfolios. Investor sentiment is one of the factors that influence market returns of ETFs during times of market volatility. This article highlights the gap in the literature by examining the role sentiment plays in ETF volatility and providing a more comprehensive understanding of how sentiment interacts with market conditions to affect ETF pricing in the South African context. This article aims to determine the effect of investor sentiment on JSE-listed ETF returns under changing market conditions. The study followed a quantitative methodology using monthly closing prices of seven JSE ETFs and an investor sentiment index. A sample period from October 2008 to December 2023 was used. For a more complex understanding of how sentiment evolved and influenced market regimes, the Markov regime-switching model was integrated with Principal Component Analysis. The results found that investor sentiment had a significant impact on most of the ETFs in both the bull and bear regimes. The bull market was more dominant than the bear market across the ETF returns. Therefore, investor sentiment affected the returns of JSE ETFs. Identifying the effect of investor sentiment on ETFs results in ETF portfolios being less affected by changing market conditions by using risk management techniques and diversifying across asset classes and investing methods.
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(This article belongs to the Section Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, and Financial Markets)
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Currencies Come and Go, But Employment Always Takes Root: Rethinking External Constraints and Monetary Sovereignty in the Periphery
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Esteban Cruz-Hidalgo, Stuart Medina-Miltimore and Agustín Mario
Economies 2025, 13(1), 9; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010009 - 4 Jan 2025
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This paper explores a development strategy for peripheral economies by advocating for a paradigm shift from traditional economic models that rely on accumulating foreign reserves. It proposes the job guarantee (JG) policy, an automatic stabilizer based on a reserve pool of employed individuals,
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This paper explores a development strategy for peripheral economies by advocating for a paradigm shift from traditional economic models that rely on accumulating foreign reserves. It proposes the job guarantee (JG) policy, an automatic stabilizer based on a reserve pool of employed individuals, as a cornerstone for fostering sustainable and inclusive growth. Grounded in modern monetary theory (MMT), this study critiques the conventional approach that prioritizes external reserves and highlights the potential of MMT in offering a more autonomous development path for developing countries. A systematic review of the literature, using the PRISMA methodology, reveals significant divergence between MMT advocates and critics, particularly regarding monetary sovereignty and the feasibility of implementing macroeconomic policies in peripheral economies. This study emphasizes that while external constraints remain, the MMT perspective calls for flexible exchange rates, low interest rates, and capital controls as part of a broader strategy to reduce dependency on foreign currencies. The proposed approach prioritizes full employment, the mobilization of domestic resources, and structural transformation through policies like import substitution. Although the shift may involve the slower accumulation of capital, it offers a more equitable and stable development path. Ultimately, this analysis underscores the potential of MMT to expand the external constraint and enable sustainable development, despite challenges in implementation and political resistance.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Political Economy of Money)
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Dynamics Between Foreign Portfolio Investment, Stock Price and Financial Development in South Africa: A SVAR Approach
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Kazeem Abimbola Sanusi and Zandri Dickason-Koekemoer
Economies 2025, 13(1), 8; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010008 - 3 Jan 2025
Abstract
The goal of this study is to look into the dynamic relationship between stock prices, foreign portfolio investment, and financial development in the South African economy. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) provided quarterly time series data from 1960 (Q1) to 2024 (Q2). This
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The goal of this study is to look into the dynamic relationship between stock prices, foreign portfolio investment, and financial development in the South African economy. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) provided quarterly time series data from 1960 (Q1) to 2024 (Q2). This study uses a structural VAR estimation approach and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC GARCH model). The DCC GARCH approach displays time-varying correlations between stock prices, credit given to the private sector as a measure of financial growth, and foreign portfolio investments. The dynamic links between stock prices, financial development, and foreign private investment (FPI) are examined using the SVAR technique. Our findings show that a financial development shock encourages and provokes a substantial influx of foreign portfolio investment into the South African economy. This suggests that overseas portfolio investments react favorably and notably well to favorable shocks in the financial development process. We suggest that a stable financial system framework and lower credit costs would strengthen the impact of higher stock prices on private sector credit and guarantee that higher stock prices have a beneficial impact on other financial development metrics. Better financial development metrics, such as credit to the private sector, will therefore increase foreign portfolio investment.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Efficiency and Anomalies in Emerging Stock Markets)
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Food Insecurity and Coping Strategies in War-Affected Urban Settings of Tigray, Ethiopia
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Hafte Gebreselassie Gebrihet, Yibrah Hagos Gebresilassie and Mekonen Aregai Gebreselassie
Economies 2025, 13(1), 7; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010007 - 1 Jan 2025
Abstract
Armed conflict remains a significant global issue, with several studies highlighting its detrimental impact on the affected communities, making it a critical area of research. This study aimed to examine the effects of prolonged armed conflict on food security among urban households in
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Armed conflict remains a significant global issue, with several studies highlighting its detrimental impact on the affected communities, making it a critical area of research. This study aimed to examine the effects of prolonged armed conflict on food security among urban households in Tigray, Ethiopia, and to examine their coping mechanisms. Primary data were collected from 740 urban households between May and June 2024. The Food Insecurity Access Scale (FIAS), Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES), and Food Consumption Score (FCS) were employed to assess the levels of food security, while the Livelihood Coping Strategy Index (LCSI) was used to identify coping strategies. The findings revealed that female-headed households were more affected by food insecurity than male-headed households. FIAS (FIES) scores indicated that 17% (2%) of households were food-secure, with 20% (25%) mildly, 35% (32%) moderately, and 29% (30%) severely food-insecure. The FCS analysis showed that 52% of households had poor food consumption, 33% were borderline, and 16% were acceptable. The findings show that 39% of urban households experienced hunger in the post-conflict period. Stress-level strategies are the most widely adopted coping mechanisms. These findings underscore the urgent need for targeted policy interventions that address the specific vulnerabilities of female-headed households and ensure the development of sustainable coping strategies to mitigate the long-term effects of food insecurity in war-affected urban settings. This study offers novel insights into the urban dimensions of food insecurity and coping strategies in post-conflict settings.
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(This article belongs to the Topic Food Security and Healthy Nutrition)
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Integrating Macroeconomic and Technical Indicators into Forecasting the Stock Market: A Data-Driven Approach
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Saima Latif, Faheem Aslam, Paulo Ferreira and Sohail Iqbal
Economies 2025, 13(1), 6; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010006 - 31 Dec 2024
Abstract
Forecasting stock markets is challenging due to the influence of various internal and external factors compounded by the effects of globalization. This study introduces a data-driven approach to forecast S&P 500 returns by incorporating macroeconomic indicators including gold and oil prices, the volatility
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Forecasting stock markets is challenging due to the influence of various internal and external factors compounded by the effects of globalization. This study introduces a data-driven approach to forecast S&P 500 returns by incorporating macroeconomic indicators including gold and oil prices, the volatility index, economic policy uncertainty, the financial stress index, geopolitical risk, and shadow short rate, with ten technical indicators. We propose three hybrid deep learning models that sequentially combine convolutional and recurrent neural networks for improved feature extraction and predictive accuracy. These models include the deep belief network with gated recurrent units, the LeNet architecture with gated recurrent units, and the LeNet architecture combined with highway networks. The results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid models achieve higher forecasting accuracy than the single deep learning models. This outcome is attributed to the complementary strengths of convolutional networks in feature extraction and recurrent networks in pattern recognition. Additionally, an analysis using the Shapley method identifies the volatility index, financial stress index, and economic policy uncertainty as the most significant predictors, underscoring the effectiveness of our data-driven approach. These findings highlight the substantial impact of contemporary uncertainty factors on stock markets, emphasizing their importance in studies analyzing market behaviour.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Financial Market Volatility under Uncertainty)
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Can the Succession Plan for Family Business Achieve Social Employment Stability? An Analysis from the Perspective of Entrepreneurs
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Hongmei Zhang, Mu Xing and Dong Chen
Economies 2025, 13(1), 5; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010005 - 31 Dec 2024
Abstract
Employment stability is crucial to social harmony and individual well-being. This study empirically analyzes whether the succession plan adopted by a family business can achieve the goal of stable employment and explores potential mechanisms at the individual level of entrepreneurs. This paper takes
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Employment stability is crucial to social harmony and individual well-being. This study empirically analyzes whether the succession plan adopted by a family business can achieve the goal of stable employment and explores potential mechanisms at the individual level of entrepreneurs. This paper takes the data from the latest Chinese Private Enterprise Survey as the research sample and employs OLS regression to empirically analyze the impact of family business succession plans on employee employment. The study finds that the succession plan can significantly increase the employment scale of a family business. The pathway mechanism indicates that the employment promotion effect is achieved by enhancing entrepreneurial responsibility and prospect perception. Additionally, when a training method involving different positions within the company is adopted, the succession plan has a more substantial promotion effect on labor employment. Finally, this study analyzes the impacts of the succession plan from three aspects: flexible employment forms, wage income levels, and employee recruitment preferences. Previous studies have not explored whether family enterprises’ formulation of a succession plan will affect social employment. By addressing this issue, new micro-level evidence is provided for further understanding of the relationship between family enterprises and the labor market.
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Open AccessArticle
The Non-Monotonic Relationship Between Income and Life Insurance Demand: A Case Study of Forty-One Countries
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Kristio Rapi, Dominicus S. Priyarsono, Siti Jahroh and Toni Bakhtiar
Economies 2025, 13(1), 4; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010004 - 31 Dec 2024
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Income is often viewed as the main determinant of life insurance demand. However, in the last two decades, the world’s life insurance penetration has continued to decrease even as income grows. This study investigates the relationship between income and life insurance demand using
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Income is often viewed as the main determinant of life insurance demand. However, in the last two decades, the world’s life insurance penetration has continued to decrease even as income grows. This study investigates the relationship between income and life insurance demand using panel data from forty-one countries from 2013 to 2022, along with education and life expectancy as control variables. The study finds a non-monotonic relationship between income and life insurance penetration and between education and life insurance penetration, while life expectancy shows a monotonic relationship with life insurance penetration. This study provides significant policy implications for insurers to predict life insurance demand and suggests that non-high-income countries emphasize the improvement of their life insurance sector development.
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Approaches to Prognosing the European Economic Crisis Through a New Economic–Financial Risk Sensitivity Model
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Monica Laura Zlati, Costinela Fortea, Alina Meca and Valentin Marian Antohi
Economies 2025, 13(1), 3; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010003 - 31 Dec 2024
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This paper presents a novel approach to prognosing European economic crises through the development of an economic–financial risk sensitivity model. The model integrates key macroeconomic indicators such as government deficit (NETGDP), GINI coefficient, social protection expenditure (ExSocP), unemployment rate (UNE), research and development
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This paper presents a novel approach to prognosing European economic crises through the development of an economic–financial risk sensitivity model. The model integrates key macroeconomic indicators such as government deficit (NETGDP), GINI coefficient, social protection expenditure (ExSocP), unemployment rate (UNE), research and development spending (RDGDP), and tax structures (TXSwoSC), assessing their role in predicting economic vulnerability across European countries. By applying the Kruskal–Wallis non-parametric test on data from 324 observations across multiple countries, significant differences were identified in the distribution of these variables. The results show that government policies related to social protection, R&D, and taxation play an important role in a country’s resilience to economic shocks. On the other hand, indicators such as income inequality and unemployment exhibit less variation, reflecting global economic conditions. The model provides a comprehensive risk assessment framework, allowing for the early detection of potential economic crises and guiding policy adjustments to mitigate risks. This methodology offers valuable insights into the sensitivity of European economies to financial disruptions, emphasizing the importance of fiscal policies and social expenditure in maintaining economic stability.
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Effect of the Cash Support from the Vision Umurenge Programme on Household Financial Behaviour in Rwanda: The Case of Direct Support (DS)
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Emmanuel Munyemana, Charles Ruranga and Joseph K. Mung’atu
Economies 2025, 13(1), 2; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010002 - 28 Dec 2024
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This study aims to quantify the extent to which poor households receiving cash support from the Vision Umurenge Programme (VUP) allocate their income across major spending categories, mainly consumption, savings, household-level investment, and cash transfers for community participation. The analysis utilises a nationally
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This study aims to quantify the extent to which poor households receiving cash support from the Vision Umurenge Programme (VUP) allocate their income across major spending categories, mainly consumption, savings, household-level investment, and cash transfers for community participation. The analysis utilises a nationally representative panel dataset of 1642 respondents, collected between 2013 and 2017. A Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM) approach was employed to model four financial behaviours: (i) saving, (ii) consumption, (iii) investment, and (iv) social transfers as a proxy for community participation. The independent variables include the monetary benefits received by individuals over different periods, alongside demographic characteristics such as gender, age, education level, and area of residence (rural–urban), which were controlled in the analysis. The findings reveal a positive and statistically significant effect of the direct cash support provided by the VUP on increased consumption, and marginal effects on individual savings and investment behaviours. However, the data do not provide sufficient evidence to conclusively establish a relationship between participation in the VUP and cash transfers for community participation. The study recommends the intensification of efforts to engage in saving as way to build resilience, and further suggest a periodic increase in the VUP benefits’ size to cushion inflation effects.
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(This article belongs to the Section Economic Development)
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The Tariff Liberalisation Policy Nexus with Non-Tariff Measures: Panel Model Evidence in the SA–EU Fruit Products Trade
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Chiedza L. Muchopa
Economies 2025, 13(1), 1; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13010001 - 25 Dec 2024
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Higher levels of quota granted can induce and increase exports, but the impact is not the same across all tariff lines. Answers are sought to the question of how the level of exports changes as the quota size of tariff rate quotas changes,
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Higher levels of quota granted can induce and increase exports, but the impact is not the same across all tariff lines. Answers are sought to the question of how the level of exports changes as the quota size of tariff rate quotas changes, thus enabling the investigation of whether unilateral quotas granted to South Africa by the European Union have influenced fruit products’ export flows in the presence of non-tariff measures. Drawing on panel data regression techniques, this study observes five fruit products’ tariff rate quotas repeatedly from 2004 to 2021. It also incorporates a variable to capture non-tariff measures based on the data from the WTO I-TIP database. The findings indicate a positive relationship between quota size and exports, further showing that for a given quota size, the increase in exports is small in the presence of non-tariff measures. These findings draw attention to future trade reforms that focus on seeking the expansion of quota size for the most productive tariff lines in terms of export growth while aiming for the simultaneous reduction of non-tariff measures and tariff rates.
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Spatial Dependence in the Cyclical Sensitivity of Labour Supply: An Analysis at the Regional Level in Ecuador
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Ángel Maridueña-Larrea and Ángel Martín-Román
Economies 2024, 12(12), 353; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12120353 - 20 Dec 2024
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The labour supply has historically been subject to influence from the economic cycle. On the other hand, there is a paucity of research in the Latin American region examining the impact of social factors on labour participation in diverse contexts. This study examines
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The labour supply has historically been subject to influence from the economic cycle. On the other hand, there is a paucity of research in the Latin American region examining the impact of social factors on labour participation in diverse contexts. This study examines the spatial dependence of the cyclical sensitivity of labour supply in 23 provinces of Ecuador. A time series analysis was conducted to calculate the cyclical sensitivities of labour supply, and spatial econometric techniques were applied to assess spatial dependence using monthly data for the period 2021 to 2024. We found evidence of a positive and significant spatial dependence in the cyclical sensitivity of labour supply. Our findings suggest that labour decisions in one province are influenced by those in neighbouring provinces, thereby providing a framework for the design of public policies that take into account these interdependencies.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of Public Policies (Product and Labour Market Regulations and Institutions and Education Policies) on Employment, Unemployment and Human Capital)
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Addition of Subset and Dummy Variables in the Threshold Spatial Vector Autoregressive with Exogenous Variables Model to Forecast Inflation and Money Outflow
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Setiawan Setiawan, Gama Putra Danu Sohibien, Dedy Dwi Prastyo, Muhammad Sjahid Akbar and Anton Abdulbasah Kamil
Economies 2024, 12(12), 352; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12120352 - 19 Dec 2024
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The TSpVARX model can be used in inflation and money outflow forecasting by accommodating the reciprocal relationship among endogenous variables, the influence of exogenous variables, inter-regional linkages, and the nonlinearity of the relationship between endogenous and predetermined variables. However, the impact of some
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The TSpVARX model can be used in inflation and money outflow forecasting by accommodating the reciprocal relationship among endogenous variables, the influence of exogenous variables, inter-regional linkages, and the nonlinearity of the relationship between endogenous and predetermined variables. However, the impact of some events, such as Eid al-Fitr and fuel price adjustments, still cannot be accommodated in the TSpVARX model. This condition causes inflation and money outflow forecasting using TSpVARX to be unsatisfactory. Our study is to improve the forecasting performance of the TSpVARX model by adding subset and dummy variables. We use a 12th lag subset variable to capture seasonal effects and a dummy variable to represent fuel price changes. These additions enhance the model’s accuracy in forecasting inflation and money outflow by accounting for recurring patterns and specific events, like fuel price changes. Based on the RMSE values of the training and testing data, we can conclude that forecasting inflation and money outflow using TSpVARX with the addition of subset and dummy variables is better than the regular TSpVARX. The inflation and money outflow forecasting generated after the addition of subset and dummy variables are also more fluctuating as in the movement of the actual data.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Political Economy of Money)
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The Importance of Bitcoin and Commodities as Investment Diversifiers in OPEC and Non-OPEC Countries
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Angham Ben Brayek, Hanen Ben Ameur and Farea Mohammed Alharbi
Economies 2024, 12(12), 351; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12120351 - 19 Dec 2024
Abstract
The study aims to critically assess the safe-haven properties of Bitcoin and a diverse set of commodities in mitigating stock market risks during periods of extreme financial turbulence. Specifically, this research seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of these assets as hedging tools or
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The study aims to critically assess the safe-haven properties of Bitcoin and a diverse set of commodities in mitigating stock market risks during periods of extreme financial turbulence. Specifically, this research seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of these assets as hedging tools or diversifiers in the portfolios of both OPEC and non-OPEC countries, focusing on their behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic. We employ a wavelet coherence approach to analyze the dynamic relationships between the variables. Portfolio optimization is conducted using CVaR to assess the effectiveness of these assets as safe havens, hedges, or diversification tools in mitigating financial risks during periods of heightened market volatility. The diversification benefits of commodities and Bitcoin in OPEC and non-OPEC stock portfolios decrease over time as their co-movement with stock markets increases. During the COVID-19 period, BTC did not act as a safe haven. However, gold served as a hedge for non-OPEC countries. Using CVaR, we found that BTC provides stronger diversification benefits than commodities, followed by gold. We examine the safe-haven role of Bitcoin and various commodities, specifically within the context of both OPEC and non-OPEC countries. Our study offers a more comprehensive analysis of how BTC and commodities function as portfolio assets during financial stress, providing valuable insights for investors and policymakers.
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(This article belongs to the Topic Energy Market and Energy Finance)
Open AccessArticle
Integration of the Indonesian Stock Market with Eight Major Trading Partners’ Stock Markets
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Endri Endri, Firman Fauzi and Maya Syafriana Effendi
Economies 2024, 12(12), 350; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12120350 - 19 Dec 2024
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This study investigates the integration of the Indonesian stock market with eight major trading partner countries, namely, China, Japan, the United States, Malaysia, India, Singapore, the Philippines, and South Korea. The analysis of the stock-market integration investigation includes the following two main things:
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This study investigates the integration of the Indonesian stock market with eight major trading partner countries, namely, China, Japan, the United States, Malaysia, India, Singapore, the Philippines, and South Korea. The analysis of the stock-market integration investigation includes the following two main things: short-term and long-term dynamic relationships within the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model framework based on the unit root test, multivariate Johansen cointegration, and paired Granger causality test. The VAR model was analyzed using weekly closing index data of the Indonesian stock exchange and eight major trading partners from January 2013 to June 2024. The results of the study show that the integration of the Indonesian stock market with those of its main trading partners in the long term is relatively low. This finding implies that investors from the eight major trading partner countries can diversify their portfolios in international investments via the Indonesian stock market and vice versa. In the short term, these results prove that Indonesia’s stock markets and those of its major trading partners are integrated, excluding China. The Chinese stock market has become segmented and more attractive for Indonesian investors who want to benefit from diversification and vice versa. Furthermore, the Indonesian stock market has two-way causal relationships with the US, Japanese, Indian, and Singaporean stock markets. In addition, the Indonesian stock market has unidirectional reciprocal-lagged relationships with Malaysia and the Philippines. An essential contribution of this study is helping policymakers and, especially, international investors understand the dynamic relationships of the Indonesian stock market with its major trading partners. Furthermore, this study contributes to the development of empirical literature on the comovement of the Indonesian stock market and those of its major trading partners, as well as the stock markets of developing and developed countries.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Efficiency and Anomalies in Emerging Stock Markets)
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Partnership Development of Smallholder Coffee Cultivation: A Model for Social Capital in the Global Value Chain
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Adi Haryono, Ina Juniarti, Karjo Matajat, Arif Imam Suroso and Moelyono Soesilo
Economies 2024, 12(12), 349; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12120349 - 17 Dec 2024
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The productivity of smallholder coffee cultivation is declining due to ageing trees, making the rejuvenation of coffee trees with superior seeds essential. This rejuvenation process requires the support and participation of various stakeholders, including the government, banks, investors, universities, community leaders, experts, extension
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The productivity of smallholder coffee cultivation is declining due to ageing trees, making the rejuvenation of coffee trees with superior seeds essential. This rejuvenation process requires the support and participation of various stakeholders, including the government, banks, investors, universities, community leaders, experts, extension workers, and other parties. The nature of an incomplete contract in building partnership with farmers requires confidence building to avoid higher costs in enforcing a new behavior. However, this study shows that the accumulation of social capital also leads to higher expenses in maintaining these relationships. This study aimed to develop a social capital model to enhance partnerships between coffee farmers and relevant stakeholders. The analysis used a system dynamics model for coffee production and farmer income. The data collection involved the gathering of data and information from 17 actors in the coffee industry in Lampung, particularly in Kopista community. The study reveals that the social capital model must be constructed from four components: (1) trust, (2) ongoing cooperative activities, (3) social capital connections, and (4) memories of successful cooperative actions. Active involvement and instruction from specialists on the concept of social capital and partnership models can enhance cooperation by maintaining social connections. The policy implication of this study is that the development of a social capital model and partnership must be constructed by mentoring for economic benefits and must be continuously supported.
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Do Anti-Dumping Measures Count? The Emissions Adjustment in Sustainable Development Policies
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Mihaela Onofrei, Bogdan Narcis Fîrțescu, Dana Claudia Cojocaru, Maria Grosu and Claudia Pantea (Boghicevici)
Economies 2024, 12(12), 348; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12120348 - 17 Dec 2024
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Following the economic shocks of recent decades, characterized by the destabilization of markets and pressure on national economies, protectionist policies have seen a significant increase. Thus, anti-dumping has become a convenient and frequently used tool in the political game of trade. In the
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Following the economic shocks of recent decades, characterized by the destabilization of markets and pressure on national economies, protectionist policies have seen a significant increase. Thus, anti-dumping has become a convenient and frequently used tool in the political game of trade. In the context of the transition toward a climate-neutral economy, anti-dumping measures have become a topic of great interest due to their indirect effects on CO2 emissions. Often used to protect domestic industries from unfair trade practices, these measures influence trade and the geographical redistribution of production, contributing to the phenomenon of “carbon leakage”. By transferring emissions from countries with strict climate regulations to economies with more permissive standards, anti-dumping measures can undermine global efforts to reduce emissions. Trade policies are becoming, in this context, an important tool in regulating international trade. Consequently, the objective of this paper is to analyze the impacts of anti-dumping measures, primary energy consumption, and urbanization on CO2 emissions in OECD countries for the period 2000–2021. The methodology used is based on dynamic A.R.D.L. models using panel data. Our results suggest that anti-dumping measures and primary energy consumption influence CO2 emissions and are statistically significant, at least at the 10% level. The results of this study are useful to both policymakers and environmental authorities in developing trade policies that support both economic development and emission-reduction targets.
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Long-Term Care Policies in Spain: Welfare State and Resilience in the European Context
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Aída Díaz-Tendero and José M. Ruano
Economies 2024, 12(12), 347; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12120347 - 17 Dec 2024
Abstract
This paper analyses the long-term care system in the context of Spain’s aging population from a comparative and multilevel perspective. Starting with the European regulatory framework, it examines the main characteristics of long-term care systems in Europe and the challenges of establishing a
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This paper analyses the long-term care system in the context of Spain’s aging population from a comparative and multilevel perspective. Starting with the European regulatory framework, it examines the main characteristics of long-term care systems in Europe and the challenges of establishing a welfare system in Spain amidst two consecutive crises: the economic and financial crisis of 2008–2014 and the pandemic crisis of 2020–2022. To achieve this, in addition to a thorough review of international literature, the study utilises legislation and reports from the European Commission, the Council of Europe, the World Health Organization, databases from the National Institute of Statistics and the Ministry of Social Rights, and Spain’s Ministry of Health. The article concludes that Spain’s long-term care model has evolved over time and has established a universal system characterised by territorial inequality. This inequality stems from regional preferences for service provision versus monetary compensation and their varying degrees of reliance on direct management or involvement of private organisations.
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(This article belongs to the Topic Sustainability Efforts and Importance of Change Management)
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Open AccessArticle
The Asymmetric Effects of Unemployment and Output on Inflation in Greece: A Nonlinear ARDL Approach
by
Panagiotis Pegkas
Economies 2024, 12(12), 346; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12120346 - 17 Dec 2024
Abstract
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This study examines the asymmetrical effects of unemployment and output on inflation in Greece. It applies a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model to focus on how positive and negative economic indicator fluctuations impact inflation. The empirical findings indicate an asymmetric and inverse relationship
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This study examines the asymmetrical effects of unemployment and output on inflation in Greece. It applies a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model to focus on how positive and negative economic indicator fluctuations impact inflation. The empirical findings indicate an asymmetric and inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. In the long run, positive shocks to unemployment affect inflation with greater intensity than negative shocks. The short-run trade-off between unemployment and inflation demonstrates linearity, with inflation showing greater sensitivity and a tendency to increase more during periods of economic expansion. Additionally, we find a nonlinear and positive relationship between inflation and output in both the long and short run. In the long run, negative output shocks have a more significant impact on inflation than positive shocks, while in the short run the results are reversed. These findings suggest that policymakers should carefully consider the nonlinearities of the Phillips curve to avoid policy errors in macroeconomic models.
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