Search Results (1,134)

The integration of commodities into stock exchanges marked a pivotal moment in the analysis of price dynamics. Commodities are essential for both daily sustenance and industrial processes and are separated into hard commodities, like metals, and soft commodities, such as agricultural produce. This paper provides a review of the relevant literature concerning the implications of commodity price volatility on commercial and financial landscapes, recognizing its profound impact on global economies. Drawing from Google Scholar and Science Direct, we analyze trends in academic publications until 2022, particularly focusing on the interplay between volatility spillover and ten different commodities, providing insights into the evolution of research paradigms over time. In a nutshell, the literature suggests that relationships between hard commodities are stronger since, in addition to being raw materials, they also serve as investment products. For the same reason, relationships between agricultural products appear to be relatively weaker. Full article

This paper investigates five different Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Generalized Auto Regressive Condition-al Heteroscedacity (GARCH models (GARCH, exponential GARCH or EGARCH, integrated GARCH or IGARCH, Component GARCH or CGARCH and the Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle GARCH or GJR-GARCH) along with six distributions (normal, Student’s t, GED and their skewed forms), which are used to estimate the price dynamics of the Bulgarian stock index SOFIX. We use the best model to predict how much time it will take, after the latest crisis, for the SOFIX index to reach its historical peak once again. The empirical data cover the period between the years 2000 and 2024, including the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose is to answer which of the five models is the best at analysing the SOFIX price and which distribution is most appropriate. The results, based on the BIC and AIC, show that the ARMA(1,1)-CGARCH(1,1) specification with the Student’s t-distribution is preferred for modelling. From the results obtained, we can confirm that the CGARCH model specification supports a more appropriate description of SOFIX volatility than a simple GARCH model. We find that long-term shocks have a more persistent impact on volatility than the effect of short-term shocks. Furthermore, for the same magnitude, negative shocks to SOFIX prices have a more significant impact on volatility than positive shocks. According to the results, when predicting future values of SOFIX, it is necessary to include both a first-order autoregressive component and a first-order moving average in the mean equation. With the help of 5000 simulations, it is estimated that the chances of SOFIX reaching its historical peak value of 1976.73 (08.10.2007) are higher than 90% at 13.08.2087. Full article

We study recent monthly data to help long-term investors buy or sell from the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index components. The recommendations are based on six stock-picking algorithms and their average ranks. We explain the reasons for ignoring the claim that the Sharpe ratio algorithm lacks monotonicity. Since the version of “omega” in the literature uses weights that distort the actual gain–pain ratio faced by investors, we propose new weights. We use data from 30 stocks using the past 474 months (39+ years) of monthly closing prices, ending in May 2024. Our buy-sell recommendations also use newer “pandemic-proof” out-of-sample portfolio performance comparisons from the R package ‘generalCorr’. We report twelve sets of ranks for both out-of- and in-sample versions of the six algorithms. Averaging the twelve sets yields the top and bottom k stocks. For example, $k=2$ suggests buying Visa Inc. and Johnson & Johnson while selling Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble. Full article

Sustainability requires that policy makers be able to use market signals to implement energy and environmental policy and that energy consumers respond rationally to these signals. Therefore, it is essential to understand how consumers’ responses to market signals are formed. We propose a new model to measure behavioral efficiency in residential electricity consumption derived from the individual householder indirect utility function. This leads to a pair of simultaneous stochastic demand frontiers for electricity consumption (kWh) and power demand (kVA). Each is a function of power demand (standing) charges and energy demand (running) charges together with the net income after demand charges, the stock of appliances and household characteristics. We estimate the model using two samples of household responses, each of which represents around one percent of the total national population available, and we also pool these samples using pseudo-panel data procedures. We demonstrate how the resulting elasticity and efficiency estimates are related to the theory of behavioral agents from recent developments in behavioral economics. These developments also use the individual indirect utility function to derive propositions based on internality and hyperbolic discounting. The econometric estimates permit the calibration of the individual welfare effects of policy initiatives using carbon tax and price incentives with behavioral agents. Full article

Given the significant impact of healthcare stock changes on the global economy, including its GDP and other financial factors, we endeavored to create an analytical prediction model for forecasting the annual percentage change of these stocks. Our model, which is nonlinear, incorporates five key discoveries. We focused on predicting the average weekly closing price (pWCP) of AbbVie Inc. (North Chicago, IL, USA)’s healthcare stock (ABBV) from 1 August 2017 to 31 December 2019. The stock was chosen based on the low beta risk, high dividend yield, and high yearly percentage return criteria. Alongside predicting the weekly stock price, our model identifies the individual indicators and their interactions that notably influence the response. These indicators were ranked based on their contribution percentages to the response. The validity of the model was justified based on the root mean square error (RMSE) and $R^2$ value by performing 10-fold cross-validation. Furthermore, an optimization process using the desirability function was implemented to determine the optimal values of the indicators that maximize the response, along with the 95% confidence and 95% prediction interval. We also visually depicted the optimal ranges of any two indicators that affect the response AWCP. In our evaluation, we compared the original and predicted responses of AWCP using our analytical model. The results demonstrated a close alignment between the two sets of observations, highlighting the high accuracy of our model. Beyond these findings, our model provides additional valuable insights into the subject area. It has undergone thorough validation and testing, confirming its high quality and the precision of our weekly stock price predictions. The information derived from the modeling and analysis is important for constructive and accurate decision-making for individual investors, portfolio managers, and financial institutions concerning the financial and economic aspects of the healthcare industry. By identifying the optimum values of the controllable contributors through the optimization process, financial institutions can make the strategic changes needed for the company’s long-term viability. Full article

Time series analysis is pivotal for business and financial decision making, especially with the increasing integration of the Internet of Things (IoT). However, leveraging time series data for forecasting requires extensive preprocessing to address challenges such as missing values, heteroscedasticity, seasonality, outliers, and noise. Different approaches are necessary for univariate and multivariate time series, Gaussian and non-Gaussian time series, and stationary versus non-stationary time series. Handling missing data alone is complex, demanding unique solutions for each type. Extracting statistical features, identifying data quality issues, and selecting appropriate cleaning and forecasting techniques require significant effort, time, and expertise. To streamline this process, we propose an automated strategy called Preptimize, which integrates statistical and machine learning techniques and recommends prediction model blueprints, suggesting the most suitable approaches for a given dataset as an initial step towards further analysis. Preptimize reads a sample from a large dataset and recommends the blueprint model based on optimization, making it easy to use even for non-experts. The results of various experiments indicated that Preptimize either outperformed or had comparable performance to benchmark models across multiple sectors, including stock prices, cryptocurrency, and power consumption prediction. This demonstrates the framework’s effectiveness in recommending suitable prediction models for various time series datasets, highlighting its broad applicability across different domains in time series forecasting. Full article

The Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) is a dynamic financial market with complex interactions and inherent volatility. Traditional models often fall short in capturing the intricate dependencies and long memory effects observed in real-world financial data. In this study, we explore the application of fractional Brownian motion (fBm) to model stock price dynamics within the ASE, specifically utilizing the Athens General Composite (ATG) index. The ATG is considered a key barometer of the overall health of the Greek stock market. Investors and analysts monitor the index to gauge investor sentiment, economic trends, and potential investment opportunities in Greek companies. We find that the Hurst exponent falls outside the range typically associated with fractal Brownian motion. This, combined with the established non-normality of increments, disfavors both geometric Brownian motion and fractal Brownian motion models for the ATG index. Full article

In order to support a low-carbon economy and manage market competition, location–inventory–routing logistics management must play a crucial role to minimize carbon emissions while maximizing customer satisfaction. This paper proposes a bi-objective mixed-integer nonlinear programming model with time window constraints that satisfies the normal distribution of stochastic customer demand. The proposed model aims to find Pareto optimal solutions for total cost minimization and customer satisfaction maximization. An improved non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (IMNSGA-II) with an elite strategy is developed to solve the model. The model considers cost factors, ensuring that out-of-stock inventory is not allowed. Factors such as a carbon trading mechanism and random variables to address customer needs are also included. An entropy weight method is used to derive the total cost, which is comprised of fixed costs, transportation costs, inventory costs, punishment costs, and the weight of carbon emissions costs. The IMNSGA-II produces the Pareto optimal solution set, and an entropy–TOPSIS method is used to generate an objective ranking of the solution set for decision-makers. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the influence of carbon pricing on carbon emissions and customer satisfaction. Full article

The implementation of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in conjunction with proficient investor relations management (IRM) can enhance the reputation and appeal of enterprises, thereby fostering the sustainable development of enterprises. This paper examines the correlation between CSR and IRM by exploring the potential misinterpretation of socially responsible actions by listed companies as “hypocrisy”. We use the fixed effect model, moderating effect model and instrumental variable method to examine the correlation between CSR and IRM. The findings indicate that actively fulfilling corporate social responsibility can enhance interaction and communication between listed companies and investors in the capital market, thereby mitigating the risk of being perceived as “hypocrisy”. This positive effect is particularly pronounced when companies are experiencing poor operational performance. These conclusions remain robust even after conducting various tests to address endogeneity concerns. In terms of the underlying mechanisms, corporate social responsibility primarily enhances investor relations management through strengthening network communication and on-site interactions. Moreover, enterprises are more inclined to proactively interact with investors in the capital market when companies face severe financial difficulties, stringent financing constraints, or poor quality of information disclosure. Additionally, our study extends its analysis to elucidate how corporate social responsibility can mitigate the risk of stock price crashes from the perspective of investor relations management. Full article

Although financial statements are extremely important to investors in decision-making processes, their reliability can be affected by earnings management (EM) practices, which involve manipulating financial reports in order to achieve managerial benefits. This study explores the relationship between earnings management and firm valuation, based on accounting information’s predictive value, specifically investigating how EM influences the value relevance (VR) of earnings on share price. The research focuses on a sample of audited companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE) between 2019 and 2021, comprising 62 entities. Using regression analysis, we explored the importance of accounting information for investors following Ohlson’s research and examined the relationship between EM and VR based on Jones’s model. The findings indicate that earnings significantly impact stock prices, highlighting their value relevance in the Romanian stock market. However, the practice of earnings management reduces the value relevance of earnings because it decreases the reliability of the accounting information. The main contribution of this analysis is to provide a fresh perspective on earnings management (EM) within the BVB framework by highlighting its pivotal role in shaping the motivation and behavior of corporate managers. Full article

Investment in stocks is increasingly dependent on artificial intelligence (AI), but the psychological and social factors that affect stock prices may not be fully covered by the measures currently used in AI training. Here, we search for additional measures that may improve AI predictions. We start by reviewing stock price movements that appear to be affected by social and psychological factors, drawing on stock market behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic. A review of processes that are likely to produce such stock market movements follows: the disposition effect, momentum, and the response to information. These processes are then explained by regression to the mean, negativity bias, the availability mechanism, and information diffusion. Taking account of these processes and drawing on the consumer behaviour literature, we identify three factors which may not be covered by current AI training data that could affect stock prices: publicity in relation to capitalization, stock-holding penetration in relation to capitalization, and changes in the penetration of stock holding. Full article

As a colossal developing economy, irrational, and inefficient trades broadly exist in China’s stock market and are intensified by the once-in-a-century COVID-19 pandemic. This atypical but prominent event enhances systemic risk and requires a more effective analysis tool that adapts to the investors’ sentiment and behavior. Based on the behavioral asset pricing model, this paper verifies the existence of noise traders in China’s stock market, measures the intensity of the noise with the NTR indicator, and examines the market noise with IANM. Furthermore, the mechanism of how COVID-19 influences the market noise through investors’ behaviors is analyzed with the event study method. The findings show that, based on 92 Chinese companies, the market noise significantly exists, and the noise is associated with psychological biases including over-confidence, herding effects and regret aversion. These biases are affected to varying degrees by COVID-19-related events, leading to notable implications for market stability and investor behavior during crises. Our study provides critical insights for policymakers and investors on managing market risks and understanding behavioral impacts during unprecedented events. Full article

The study described in this paper develops a new technique which permits the execution of an open straddle strategy based on the superior volatility forecast for analyzing historical data. We extend the current litearure by measuring the volatility of an underlying asset in the last predefined period and comparing the actual volatility in currency with historical volatility in currency to make predictions of implied volatility. We calculated stock price volatility through an optimal holding period (OHP) and set up bars of volatility in currency. To obtain this, we solved optimization equations to find maximum and minimum movements in the volatility in currency within the defined range. We placed volatility in currency into percentile rankings and designed a straddle trading strategy based on the last OHP’s volatility in currency. The technique allows for an investor (or trader) to open either short or long positions based on calculations for a selected OHP’s volatility in currency. We applied this strategy to 130 stocks which are traded on CBOE. We developed a trading algorithm which can be used by institutional as well as individual investors. The algorithm is set to determine historical volatility in currency and forecast upcoming volatilities in currency through the understanding of the market sentiment. The empirical findings show that the stocks analyzed with the algorithm generate positive returns along a spectrum of changing volatilities of the underlying assets. Full article

Multifactor uncertain differential equations are powerful tools for studying dynamic systems under multi-source noise. A key challenge in this study is how to accurately estimate unknown parameters based on the framework of uncertainty theory in multi-source noise environments. To address this core problem, this paper innovatively proposes a least-squares estimation method. The essence of this method lies in constructing statistical invariants with a symmetric uncertainty distribution based on observational data and determining specific parameters by minimizing the distance between the population distribution and the empirical distribution of the statistical invariant. Additionally, two numerical examples are provided to help readers better understand the practical operation and effectiveness of this method. In addition, we also provide a case study of JD.com’s stock prices to illustrate the advantages of the method proposed in this paper, which not only provides a new idea and method for addressing the problem of dynamic system parameter estimation but also provides a new perspective and tool for research and application in related fields. Full article

This article aims to examine the hedging effect of green bonds in the US market, the European market, and the Chinese market on carbon price risk in the European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) from 2021 to 2023. By using daily datasets extracted from Bloomberg and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the research provides evidence of the hedging effect of green bonds in all three markets on carbon price risk in the EU ETS. The paper concludes that the hedging ratio is positive for green bonds in the EU and China, while the figure for the US market is negative. Moreover, there is a positive effect of oil prices on carbon returns in EU ETS. Meanwhile, the opposite is found for stock prices. Full article