000
AXNT20 KNHC 171115
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Oct 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central America and southern Mexico Significant Rainfall:
A 1007 mb low pressure is centered near 16N83W, off the coast of
Honduras and Nicaragua. Some gradual development is possible over
the next couple of days if the system stays over water while it
moves slowly northwestward toward Central America. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
Central America and southern Mexico late this week and into the
weekend. This system could bring significant rainfall to Costa
Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the southeastern
Mexico Friday through Monday next week, increasing the chance for
flooding and landslides. Residents in these countries need to 
monitor this developing situation closely and listen to the latest
forecast from their local meteorological agencies. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 54W, from 
22N southward through a 1011 mb low (Invest AL94) near 17N54W, 
moving toward the west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted from 18N to 22N between 54W 
and 60W. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive
for slow development as the disturbance moves quickly westward to
west-northwestward around 20 mph, passing near the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near the Greater Antilles over 
the weekend. There is a LOW chance of tropical cyclone development
through the next 48 hours and in the next 7 days.

The axis of a western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from 
19N southward through western Panama into the East Pacific. It is
moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection is S of 20N between 75W and 83W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa
near 09N15W to 06N30W to 14N52W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04N to 17N, east of 27W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Straits to northern Mexico.
Isolated showers are noted within the vicinity of the front.
Strong to near gale force winds are occurring along and north of
the front, and seas of 8 to 11 ft are likely in the region.

For the forecast, the front will continue to progress southward 
before stalling along the Yucatan Channel into this weekend. 
Strong to near gale force NE winds and rough seas of 8 to 11 ft 
will continue along and behind the front across much of the basin.
The pressure gradient between this front and building high 
pressure over the southeastern United States will support fresh to
strong NE winds and rough seas this weekend into early next week,
especially over southern and eastern portions of the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about potential heavy
rainfall late this week into early next week.

A cold front over the Yucatan Channel is producing moderate to
fresh NE winds in the northwestern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh 
E winds prevail over the central Caribbean, with gentle to 
moderate winds in the eastern Caribbean and light to gentle winds
in the southwest Caribbean. Seas of 3-5 ft are noted across the 
basin.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E winds will occur 
over the central and eastern Caribbean through late Sat. A cold 
front progressing through the southern Gulf of Mexico will stall 
over the Yucatan Channel into the upcoming weekend. Fresh to 
locally strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas will occur 
along and south of this front into early next week. Fresh NE 
winds, associated with this front and aided by an approaching 
broad area of low pressure, Invest AL94, will funnel through the 
Windward Passage Fri evening into Sun morning. Environmental 
conditions appear only marginally conducive for slow development 
as Invest AL94 moves quickly westward to west-northwestward around
20 mph, passing near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on 
Friday, then near the Greater Antilles over the weekend. 
Elsewhere, a broad area of low pressure is located over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development is possible 
over the next couple of days if the system stays over water while 
it moves slowly northwestward toward Central America.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southward and southwestward from a 1008 mb
low centered near 35N71W. Strong NE winds are noted off the east
coast of Florida, generally north of 25N and west of 74W. Rough
seas of 8 to 10 ft are likely occurring in this region. Fresh to 
strong E winds are noted along the northern periphery of Invest 
AL94, located near 17N54W. Elsewhere, a 1029 mb high is centered 
near 37N28W, promoting moderate E to SE winds across much of the 
rest of the basin. A northerly swell is leading to seas of 8 to 10
ft north of 24N and east of 44W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will continue to progress 
southward before stalling over the Florida Straits into this 
upcoming weekend. Strong to Near Gale force N to NNE winds and 
rough seas of 8 to 10 ft will continue along and behind the front 
off the east coast of Florida, generally west of 74W and north of 
24N. The pressure gradient between this front and building high 
pressure over the southeastern United States will then support 
fresh to strong NE winds north of 21N and west of 70W this weekend
into early next week. Low pressure Invest AL94 is centered near 
17N54W. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive 
for slow development as the system moves quickly westward to west-
northwestward around 20 mph, passing near the Virgin Islands and 
Puerto Rico on Friday, then near the Greater Antilles over the 
weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E trade winds will 
prevail over the much of the basin this weekend through next week.

$$
ADAMS