1. Introduction and Summary
Suppose that we have a non-lattice estimate of an unknown parameter of a statistical model, based on a sample of size n. The distribution of a standard estimate is determined by the coefficients obtained by expanding its cumulants in powers of . In §2 we summarise the extended Edgeworth-Cornish-Fisher expansions of Withers (1984) for when . Then we give the multivariate Edgeworth expansions to . We show that the distribution of has the form where the normal distribution with , and for where has terms, reducible using symmetry. Its density has a similarly form. We argue that these expansions may be valid even if if is bounded.
§3 gives these expansions in complete detail when .
In §4 we suppose that and partition as of dimensions and We derive expansions for the conditional density and distribution of given to . §5 specialises to bivariate estimates.
§6 gives the extended Cornish-Fisher expansions for the quantiles of the conditional distribution when . An example is the distribution of a sample mean given the sample variance.
2. Extended Edgeworth-Cornish-Fisher theory
Univariate estimates. Suppose that
is a
standard estimate of
with respect to
n, typically the sample size. That is,
as
, and its
rth cumulant can be expanded as
where the
cumulant coefficients may depend on
n but are bounded as
, and
is bounded away from 0. Here and below ≈ indicates an asymptotic expansion that need not converge. So (
1) holds in the sense that
where
means that
is bounded in
n. Withers (1984) extended Cornish and Fisher (1937) and Fisher and Cornish (1960) to give the distribution and quantiles of
have asymptotic expansions in powers of
:
where is a unit normal random variable with density , and are polynomials in x and the standardized cumulant coefficients
and so on, where is the kth Hermite polynomial,
See Withers (1984) for
, Withers (2000) for (6) and §6 for relations between
. Also,
For , is a polynomial of order only , while is of order .
The original Edgeworth expansion was for
the mean of
n independent identically distributed random variables from a distribution with
rth cumulant
. So (
1 ) holds with
, and other
. An explicit formula for its general term was given in Withers and Nadarajah (2009) using Bell polynomials.
Ordinary Bell polynomials. For a sequence
the partial ordinary Bell polynomial , is defined by the identity
where
for
They are tabled on p309 of Comtet (1974).
The complete ordinary Bell polynomial,
is defined in terms of
S by
Multivariate estimates. Suppose that is a standard estimate of
with respect to n. That is, as , and for ,
the
rth order cumulants of
can be expanded as
where the
cumulant coefficients may depend on
n but are bounded as
. So the bar replaces
by
j:
with density and distribution
V may depend on
n, but we assume that
is bounded away from 0. Set
where for
is a function of
given for the 1st time in the appendix. In (13), (14) and below, we use
the tensor summation convention of implicitly summing
over their range
. We make
symmetric in
using the operator
that symmetrizes over
:
The terms involving
are given in the
Appendix A. By Withers and Nadarajah (2010b) or Withers (2024),
has distribution and density
is
the multivariate Hermite polynomial. For their dual form see Withers and Nadarajah (2014). By Withers (2020), for
,
where
is the
element of
and
is the
element of
This gives
in terms of the moments of
Y. For example
This gives the Edgeworth expansion for the distribution of to . See Withers (2024) for more terms.
For large q, of (21) and (23) have terms. So if and , then where . So if for example is bounded, then the Edgeworth series should converge if
The log density can be expanded as
See Withers and Nadarajah (2016). Also for
of (6),
Example 1.
Let be a sample mean. Then , and only the leading coefficient in (11) are non-zero. So . In order needed, the non-zero are
and have terms but many are duplicates. We now show how symmetry reduces this to terms. We use the multinomial coefficient . For example .
Set
where tensor summation is
not used. By (22),
where all
are distinct. Similarly we can write out
for
This reduces the number of terms in
from
to
for
, to
for
, to
for
and to
for
If we reinterpret
as
, where again tensor summation is
not used, then we can reinterpret the above expression for
, as an expression for
. For example,
These results can be extended to
Type B estimates, that is to
with cumulant expansions not of type (11), but
3. The Distribution of for
We first give
of (22) for
, and then
of (21).
for
of (16), (17), where we use the dual notation,
So
and
are given by (29) with
and 2,
For more examples see Withers (2000).
is just
with 1 and 2 reversed. The other
needed in (31) for
are as follows.
(18) and (22) now give the distribution and density of
to
. Set
Then
of (21) is given by replacing
by
in the expressions above for
. That is,
(18) and (21) now give to for .
4. The Conditional Density and Distribution
For and partition and , as where are vectors of length . Partition as where are .
The conditional density of
given
, is
is
of (22) for
, and
is the density of
. By (37)–(39), §2.5 of Anderson (1958),
The distribution of
is
By (22), for
and
of (14)–(16),
and
is given by replacing
and
in
by
and now implicit summation in (41) is for
over
. So,
, and so on. For
of (7), set
So the conditional density
of (34), relative to
of (37), is
So now we have the conditional density to
. The expansion for
the conditional distribution about
of (39), is
This gives
in terms of
, given by (54) in terms of
and derivatives of
. (51) now gives
in terms of
of (36). So
and (50) give the conditional distribution to
. Alternatively, as
is a polynomial in
, by (37),
is linear in
for
where
We now illustrate this.
By (39),
By (50), for
of (46),
given by (52) in terms of
. For
of (53), by (37),
Set
By (53),
5. The Case
In this case
and for
of (42) and
u of (55),
and
of (6). For example by (30),
and
are given in §3 in terms of
(47) gives
in terms of
and
, which are given for
by (22) in terms of
of §3. For
of (32), set
for
of (59) and (60). For example
and
is giving by reversing 1 and 2 in
. Alternatively, we can use
Theorem 1.
Set For even, of (53) is given by
PROOF For
of (54),
This gives
, and so
of (52) and so
to
, in terms of the coefficients
So (67) gives
in terms of
of §3 via
The explicit form for (66), despite the work needed to obtain of (64).
Example 2. If the distribution of is symmetric about w, then for r odd, , and the non-zero are
Example 3.
Let be a sample mean. Then , and only the leading coefficients in (11) are non-zero. So . The non-zero were given in Example 2.1. For are given by §3 with these non-zero , and
needed for of §3 does not simplify. Nor does of §3 needed for .
Example 4.
Consider the classical problem of the distribution of a sample mean, given the sample variance. So Let be the usual unbiased estimates of the 1st 2 cumulants from a univariate random sample of size n from a distribution with rth cumulant . So By the last 2 equations of §12.15 and (12.35)–(12.38) of Stuart and Ord (1991), the cumulant coefficients needed for of (14) for , that is, the coefficients needed for the conditional density to are
(47) gives in terms of and , that is, in terms of and of §3 in terms of of (31). In this example, many of these are 0. By (15)–(17) and the Appendix A, the non-zero are in order needed,
(24)–(26) now give and for . By (18) and (47), this gives the conditional density to . (67) gives needed for the conditional distribution to in terms of of (68). So
6. Conditional Cornish-Fisher Expansions
Suppose that . Here we invert the conditional distribution (56), to obtain its its extended Cornish-Fisher expansions similar to (4). For any function with finite derivatives, set
Lemma 1.
Suppose that is 1 to 1 increasing with jth derivative , and for some ,
PROOF Set
One obtains
similarly.
A different form for (73) was given in Theorem A2 of Withers (1983). So
We can now give the quantiles of the conditional distribution (56).
Theorem 2.
A simpler formula for is
PROOF Apply Lemma 6.1 to (56) with
. Take
and
for
given by (52) in terms of
of (59). So
and for
of (56),
and
are given by (70) and (72) in terms of
and their derivatives. These are given by
(74) follows from (3.2) of Withers (1984). □
We had hoped to read the conditional off the conditional density. But the expansion (47) cannot be put into the form (3) if , as the coefficient of in of (5) is 0. So the conditional estimate is generally not a standard estimate. (An exception is when since then and by (50), of (39). We have yet to see what exponential families this extends to.) It might be possible to remedy this by extending the results here to Type B estimates. But there seems little point in doing so.
7. Conclusions
§2 and the
Appendix A give the density and distribution of
to
, for
any standard estimate, in terms of certain functions of the cumulants coefficients
of (11), the coefficients
of (14)–(17). Most estimates of interest are standard estimates, including functions of sample moments, like the sample correlation, and any multivariate function of
k-statistics,. §3 gave the density and distribution of
in more detail when
using the dual notation
. §4 gave the conditional density and distribution of
given
to
where
is any partition of
. The expansion (47) gives the conditional density of a standard estimate in terms of
of (47). The conditional distribution (50) to
requires the function
of (54), or its expansion (59) or (65). §6 gave the extended Cornish-Fisher expansions for the quantiles of the conditional distribution when
.
8. Discussion
A good approximation for the distribution of an estimate, is vital for statistical inference. It enables one to explore the distribution’s dependence on underlying parameters, such as correlation. Our analytic method avoids the need for simulation or jack-knife or bootstrap methods while providing greater accuracy than them. Hall (1992) uses the Edgeworth expansion to show that the bootstrap gives accuracy to . Hall (1988) says that “2nd order correctness usually cannot be bettered”. Fortunately this is not true for our analytic method. Simulation, while popular, can at best shine a light on behaviour when there is only a small number of parameters.
Estimates based on a sample of independent but not identically distributed random vectors, are also generally standard estimates. For example for a univariate sample mean where has rth cumulant , then where is the average rth cumulant. For some examples, see Skovgaard (1981a, 1981b) and Withers and Nadarajah (2010a, 2020b). The last is for a function of a weighted mean of complex random matrices.
A promising approach is the use of conditional cumulants. §6.2 of McCullagh (1984) uses conditional cumulants to give the conditional density of a sample mean to . §5.6 of McCullagh (1987) gave formulas for the 1st 4 cumulants conditional on when and are uncorrelated. He says that assumption can be removed but gives no details how. That might give an alternative to our approach, but seems unlikely as the conditional estimate is generally not a standard estimate.
(7.5) of Barndoff-Nielsen and Cox (1989) gave the 3rd order expansion for the conditional density of a sample mean to , but did not attempt to integrate it.
Here we have only considered expansions about the normal. However expansions about other distributions can greatly reduce the number of terms by matching the leading bias coefficient. The framework for this is Withers and Nadarajah (2010a). For expansions about a matching gamma, see Withers and Nadarajah (2011, 2014).
The results here can be extended to tilted (saddlepoint) expansions by applying the results of Withers and Nadarajah (2010a). Tilting was 1st used in statistics by Daniels (1954). He gave an approximation to the density of a sample mean. A conditional distribution by tilting was first given by Skovgaard (1987) up to for the distribution of a sample mean conditional on correlated sample means. For some examples, see Barndoff-Nielsen and Cox (1989). For other some results on conditional distributions, see Pfanzagl (1979), Booth et al. (1992), DiCiccio et al. (1993), Hansen (1994), Moreira (2003), Chapter 4 of Butler (2007), and Kluppelberg and Seifert (2020). The results given here form the basis for constructing confidence intervals and confidence regions. See Withers (1989).
Appendix A. The Coefficients P ¯ r 1-k Needed for (14)
Here we give the coefficients
needed for (14) for
using the symmetrising operator
. They are given for
by (15), and for
by (16)–(17) and the following.
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