Group penalized logistic regressions predict up and down trends for stock prices

Abstract Predicting up and down trends for stock prices is an important puzzle in the financial field. Hu & Jiang (2021) proposed logistic regression with 6 technical indicators to predict up and down trends for Google's stock prices. In this paper we further propose the five penalized logistic regressions with 19 technical indicators: ridge (L2), lasso (L1), elastic net(EN), smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) and minimax concave penalty (MCP) to improve the prediction accuracy. Firstly, we combine the iterative weighted least square algorithm with the coordinate descent algorithm, and apply a training set to obtain parameter estimators and probability estimators. Then we adopt a test set to construct confusion matrices and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and apply them to assess their prediction performances. Finally we compare the proposed five prediction methods with logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM) and artificial neural network (ANN) , and found that the MCP penalized logistic regression performs the best. Therefore, we develop a new efficient prediction method to predict up and down trends for stock prices.

Although R&D expenses be relevant to any company, the IT sector stands out in this way, since these companies make constant investments in these intangibles in order to develop solutions and systems for their clients, so, this study aimed to verify the relevance of R&D expenses for companies in the IT sector listed in B3 between 2010 and 2018. Regressions were performed by least absolute deviations considering the stock price as response variable and R&D expenses as explanatory variable. In addition, complementary analyzes were made using logistic regressions. It was always considered a confidence level of 95%. Our results show that R&D expenses explain the variation in stock prices, as expected. The positive sign indicates that investments in these intangibles increase the market value of IT companies, however, there are limits to these benefits. An interesting comparative is that, for the electric sector, target of the study of Alves, Silva, Macedo, and Marques (2011), R&D expenses did not indicate predictive power against stock prices. This confirms the relevance of this measure to the IT sector given its importance to the activities of these companies. Although there is a common sense of the relevance of R&D expenses for the IT sector, there was no literature that would provide such evidence in an empirical way. This research fills this gap and denotes greater relevance of the accounting information regarding R&D expenses for investors of B3 IT companies.

Abstract. Background: Early identification and appropriate referral services are priorities to prevent suicide. Aims: The aim of this study was to describe patterns of identification and referrals among three behavioral health centers and determine whether youth demographic factors and type of training received by providers were associated with identification and referral patterns. Method: The Early Identification Referral Forms were used to gather the data of interest among 820 youth aged 10–24 years who were screened for suicide risk (females = 53.8%). Descriptive statistics and binary logistic regressions were conducted to examine significant associations. Results: Significant associations between gender, race, and age and screening positive for suicide were found. Age and race were significantly associated with different patterns of referrals and/or services received by youths. For providers, being trained in Counseling on Access to Lethal Means was positively associated with number of referrals to inpatient services. Limitations: The correlational nature of the study and lack of information about suicide risk and comorbidity of psychiatric symptoms limit the implications of the findings. Conclusion: The results highlight the importance of considering demographic factors when identifying and referring youth at risk to ensure standard yet culturally appropriate procedures to prevent suicide.

This study examined the effect of current ratio and debt to asset ratio on net profit margin and stock prices of the sector basic industry and chemicals companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the period 2015-2019. The object of research was the stock prices of companies in the Basic Industry and Chemicals sector, which have been published through the official website of the Indonesian capital market. It was used secondary data derived from the monthly statistics, including Current Ratio data, Net Profit Margin, Debt to Asset Ratio, and data on closing prices for the period 2015-2019. In analyzing data, it was used path analysis of secondary data obtained from the basic industry sector financial statements of 60 companies. The company's performance in this sector is considered quite good when seen from the movement of the index value in the last five years. The results show that direct current ratio had a positive and significant effect on the net profit margin, and the debt to equity ratio did not significantly influence the net profit margin. The current ratio has a positive and significant effect on stock prices, and the debt to equity ratio has a negative and not significant effect on stock prices. In contrast, the net profit margin has a significant effect on stock prices in the basic industry sector companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Indirectly the current ratio has a positive and significant effect on stock prices. In contrast, the debt to asset ratio has a negative and not significant effect on the company's stock prices in the basic industry sector on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.

This paper investigates factors affecting Vietnam’s stock prices including US stock prices, foreign exchange rates, gold prices and crude oil prices. Using the daily data from 2005 to 2012, the results indicate that Vietnam’s stock prices are influenced by crude oil prices. In addition, Vietnam’s stock prices are also affected significantly by US stock prices, and foreign exchange rates over the period before the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. There is evidence that Vietnam’s stock prices are highly correlated with US stock prices, foreign exchange rates and gold prices for the same period. Furthermore, Vietnam’s stock prices were cointegrated with US stock prices both before and after the crisis, and with foreign exchange rates, gold prices and crude oil prices only during and after the crisis.