selection probability
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Abstract Forced-choice conjoint experiments have become a standard component of the experimental toolbox in political science and sociology. Yet the literature has largely overlooked the fact that conjoint experiments can be used for two distinct purposes: to uncover respondents’ multidimensional preferences, and to estimate the causal effects of some attributes on a profile’s selection probability in a multidimensional choice setting. This paper makes the argument that this distinction is both analytically and practically relevant, because the quantity of interest is contingent on the purpose of the study. The vast majority of social scientists relying on conjoint analyses, including most scholars interested in studying preferences, have adopted the average marginal component effect (AMCE) as their main quantity of interest. The paper shows that the AMCE is neither conceptually nor practically suited to explore respondents’ preferences. Not only is it essentially a causal quantity conceptually at odds with the goal of describing patterns of preferences, but it also does generally not identify preferences, mixing them with compositional effects unrelated to preferences. This paper proposes a novel estimand—the average component preference—designed to explore patterns of preferences, and it presents a method for estimating it.

Parking and ride is a very effective method to improve the traffic condition of commuter channels, and it is necessary to develop effective parking guidance strategies. In this study, considering the travel time, walking distance, parking cruise time, parking fee, and personal attributes of drivers, a probability model of parking and ride selection in commuter scenarios was proposed, and a dynamic price adjustment method based on the equilibrium of parking occupancy in the region was constructed. The parking price was adjusted by determining the target occupancy, thus affecting the parking choice behavior to guide the commuter to park. The example analysis showed that this method adjusted the selection probability of the parking lot by using the dynamic price adjustment method from the perspective of regional parking occupancy equilibrium, solved the model by symmetric duality algorithm and formulated a reasonable parking replacement induction scheme to achieve the goal of occupancy equilibrium. Compared with parking guidance under static pricing, it can avoid the crowding of commuter vehicles into the city center effectively to reduce the congestion of commuter channels.

Effective communication in vehicular networks depends on the scheduling of wireless channel resources. There are two types of channel resource scheduling in Release 14 of the 3GPP, i.e., (1) controlled by eNodeB and (2) a distributed scheduling carried out by every vehicle, known as Autonomous Resource Selection (ARS). The most suitable resource scheduling for vehicle safety applications is the ARS mechanism. ARS includes (a) counter selection (i.e., specifying the number of subsequent transmissions) and (b) resource reselection (specifying the reuse of the same resource after counter expiry). ARS is a decentralized approach for resource selection. Therefore, resource collisions can occur during the initial selection, where multiple vehicles might select the same resource, hence resulting in packet loss. ARS is not adaptive towards vehicle density and employs a uniform random selection probability approach for counter selection and reselection. As a result, it can prevent some vehicles from transmitting in a congested vehicular network. To this end, the paper presents Truly Autonomous Resource Selection (TARS) for vehicular networks. TARS considers resource allocation as a problem of locally detecting the selected resources at neighbor vehicles to avoid resource collisions. The paper also models the behavior of counter selection and resource block reselection on resource collisions using the Discrete Time Markov Chain (DTMC). Observation of the model is used to propose a fair policy of counter selection and resource reselection in ARS. The simulation of the proposed TARS mechanism showed better performance in terms of resource collision probability and the packet delivery ratio when compared with the LTE Mode 4 standard and with a competing approach proposed by Jianhua He et al.

Abstract Age-dependent differences in methylation at specific cytosine-guanosine sites (CpGs) have been used in “epigenetic clock” formulas to predict age. Deviations of epigenetic age from chronological age are informative of health status and are associated with adverse health outcomes, including mortality. In most cases, epigenetic clocks are performed on methylation from DNA extracted from circulating blood cells. However, the effect of neoplastic cells in the circulation on estimation and interpretation of epigenetic clocks is not well understood. Here, we explored this using Fischer 344 (F344) rats, a strain that often develops large granular lymphocyte leukemia (LGL). We found clear histological markers of LGL pathology in the spleens and livers of 27 out of 61 rats aged 17-27 months. We assessed DNA methylation by reduced representation bisulfite sequencing with coverage of 3 million cytosine residues. Although LGL broadly increased DNA methylation variability, it did not change epigenetic aging. Despite this, inclusion of rats with LGL in clock training sets significantly altered predictor selection probability at 83 of 121 commonly utilized CpGs. Furthermore, models trained on rat samples that included individuals with LGL had greater absolute age error than those trained exclusively on LGL-free rats (39% increase; p<0.0001). We conclude that the epigenetic signals for aging and LGL are distinct, such that LGL assessment is not necessary for valid measures of epigenetic age in F344 rats. The precision and architecture of constructed epigenetic clock formulas, however, can be influenced by the presence of neoplastic hematopoietic cells in training set populations.

Abstract Background In case-cohort studies a random subcohort is selected from the inception cohort and acts as the sample of controls for several outcome investigations. Analysis is conducted using only the cases and the subcohort, with inverse probability weighting (IPW) used to account for the unequal sampling probabilities resulting from the study design. Like all epidemiological studies, case-cohort studies are susceptible to missing data. Multiple imputation (MI) has become increasingly popular for addressing missing data in epidemiological studies. It is currently unclear how best to incorporate the weights from a case-cohort analysis in MI procedures used to address missing covariate data.Method A simulation study was conducted with missingness in two covariates, motivated by a case study within the Barwon Infant Study. MI methods considered were: using the outcome, a proxy for weights in the simple case-cohort design considered, as a predictor in the imputation model, with and without exposure and covariate interactions; imputing separately within each weight category; and using a weighted imputation model. These methods were compared to a complete case analysis (CCA) within the context of a standard IPW analysis model estimating either the risk or odds ratio. The strength of associations, missing data mechanism, proportion of observations with incomplete covariate data, and subcohort selection probability varied across the simulation scenarios. Methods were also applied to the case study.Results There was similar performance in terms of relative bias and precision with all MI methods across the scenarios considered, with expected improvements compared with the CCA. Slight underestimation of the standard error was seen throughout but the nominal level of coverage (95%) was generally achieved. All MI methods showed a similar increase in precision as the subcohort selection probability increased, irrespective of the scenario. A similar pattern of results was seen in the case study.Conclusions How weights were incorporated into the imputation model had minimal effect on the performance of MI; this may be due to case-cohort studies only having two weight categories. In this context, inclusion of the outcome in the imputation model was sufficient to account for the unequal sampling probabilities in the analysis model.

Background Data exchange and management have been observed to be improving with the rapid growth of 5G technology, edge computing, and the Internet of Things (IoT). Moreover, edge computing is expected to quickly serve extensive and massive data requests despite its limited storage capacity. Such a situation needs data caching and offloading capabilities for proper distribution to users. These capabilities also need to be optimized due to the experience constraints, such as data priority determination, limited storage, and execution time. Methods We proposed a novel framework called Genetic and Ant Colony Optimization (GenACO) to improve the performance of the cached data optimization implemented in previous research by providing a more optimum objective function value. GenACO improves the solution selection probability mechanism to ensure a more reliable balancing of the exploration and exploitation process involved in finding solutions. Moreover, the GenACO has two modes: cyclic and non-cyclic, confirmed to have the ability to increase the optimal cached data solution, improve average solution quality, and reduce the total time consumption from the previous research results. Result The experimental results demonstrated that the proposed GenACO outperformed the previous work by minimizing the objective function of cached data optimization from 0.4374 to 0.4350 and reducing the time consumption by up to 47%.

Black bears (Ursus americanus) are an iconic and common species throughout much of the United States and people regularly interact with these large predators without conflict. However, negative interactions between people and bears can manifest in conflicts that can hinder conservation efforts. Black bears are highly attracted to anthropogenic sources of food, and negative interactions with people are primarily a product of trash mismanagement. In the Catskills region of New York State, home to a large population of black bears, over 400 such conflicts are reported each year. While the New York Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) has seen progress recently in educating residents of the region on how to reduce unwanted interactions with bears, they have had less success educating the 12 million tourists that visit the Catskills each year. Understanding where conflict may occur in the future, and the environmental and anthropogenic factors that precede it, may help guide management strategies to reduce these unwanted interactions. Therefore, we designed resource selection probability functions (RSPFs) to examine the relationship between human-black bear conflicts in the Catskills with a suite of landscape and anthropogenic data, using conflicts reported to the DEC across the state of New York in 2018–2019. We found that human-black bear conflicts were more likely to occur in the residential areas of the Catskills on the urban-wildland interface; areas with relatively higher human population densities, away from dense forest, and further from heavily urbanized areas. While future work is needed to continuously validate our model predictions, our results will provide the DEC and other conservation managers in the Catskills the ability to create more targeted plans for mitigating unwanted human-black bear interactions, and provide a better understanding of the mechanisms driving human-carnivore interactions at an urban-wildland interface more generally.

Optimal power allocation (OPA), which can be transformed into an optimization problem with constraints, plays a key role in wireless sensor networks (WSNs). In this paper, inspired by ant colony optimization, an improved multioperator-based constrained adaptive differential evolution (namely, IMO-CADE) is proposed for the OPA. The proposed IMO-CADE can be featured as follows: (i) to adaptively select the proper operator among different operators, the feedback of operators and the status of individuals are considered simultaneously to assign the selection probability; (ii) the constrained reward assignment is used to measure the feedback of operators; (iii) the parameter adaptation is used for the parameters of differential evolution. To extensively evaluate the performance of IMO-CADE, it is used to solve the OPA for both the independent and correlated observations with different numbers of sensor nodes. Compared with other advanced methods, simulation results clearly indicate that IMO-CADE yields the best performance on the whole. Therefore, IMO-CADE can be an efficient alternative for the OPA of WSNs, especially for WSNs with a large number of sensor nodes.

Abstract Background Multiple imputation (MI) is commonly used to address missing data in epidemiological studies, but valid use requires compatibility between the imputation and analysis models. Case-cohort studies use unequal sampling probabilities for cases and controls which are often accounted for during analyses through inverse probability weighting (IPW). It is unclear how to apply MI for missing covariates while achieving compatibility in this setting. Methods A simulation study was conducted with missingness in two covariates, motivated by a case-cohort investigation within the Barwon Infant Study. MI methods considered involved including interactions between the outcome (as a proxy for weights) and analysis variables, stratification by weights, and ignoring weights, within the context of an IPW analysis. Factors such as the target estimand, proportion of incomplete observations, missing data mechanism and subcohort selection probabilities were varied to assess performance of MI methods. Results There was similar performance in terms of bias and efficiency across the MI methods, with expected improvements compared to IPW applied to the complete cases. Precision tended to decrease as the subcohort selection probability decreased. Similar results were observed irrespective of the proportion of incomplete cases. Conclusions Our results suggest that it makes little difference how weights are incorporated in the MI model in the analysis of case-cohort studies, potentially due to only two weight classes in this setting. Key messages If and how the weights are incorporated in the imputation model may have little impact in the analysis of case-cohort studies with incomplete covariates