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Abstract. It is vital to robustly estimate the risks posed by extreme sea levels, especially in tropical regions where cyclones can generate large storm surges and observations are too limited in time and space to deliver reliable analyses. To address this limitation for the South China Sea region, we force a hydrodynamic model with a new synthetic database representing 10,000 years of past/present and future tropical cyclone activity, to investigate climate change impacts on extreme sea levels forced by storm surges (± tides). We show that, as stronger and more numerous tropical cyclones likely pass through this region over the next 30 years, both the spatial extent and severity of storm surge hazard increases. While extreme storm surge events in this location become generally a more frequent occurrence in the future, larger storm surges around Vietnam and China coastlines are projected to regionally amplify this hazard. This threatens low-lying, densely-populated areas such as the Red and Mekong River deltas, while sections of the Cambodian and Thai coastline face previously unseen storm surge hazards. These future hazards strongly signal that coastal flood management and adaptation in these areas should be reviewed for their resilience against future extreme sea levels.

Identifying the spatio-temporal distribution hotspots of fishes and allocating priority conservation areas could facilitate the spatial planning and efficient management. As a flagship commercial fishery species, Largehead hairtail (Trichiurus japonicus) has been over-exploited since the early 2000s. Therefore, the spatio-temporal management of largehead hairtail nursery grounds could effective help its recovery. This study aims to predict juvenile largehead hairtail distribution patterns and identify priority conservation areas for nursery grounds. A two-stage hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model was applied on independent scientific survey data (Catch per unit effort, CPUE) and geographic/physical variables (Depth, Distance to the coast, Sea bottom temperature, Dissolved oxygen concentration and Net primary production) to analyze the probability of occurrence and abundance distribution of juvenile largehead hairtail. We assessed the importance of each variable for explaining the occurrence and abundance. Using persistence index, we measured the robustness of hotspots and identified persistent hotspots for priority conservation areas. Selected models showed good predictive capacity on occurrence probability (AUC = 0.81) and abundance distribution (r = 0.89) of juvenile largehead hairtail. Dissolved oxygen, net primary production, and sea bottom temperature significantly affected the probability of occurrence, while distance to the coast also affected the abundance distribution. Three stable nursery grounds were identified in Zhejiang inshore waters, the largest one was located on the east margin of the East China Sea hairtail national aquatic germplasm resources conservation zones (TCZ), suggesting that the core area of nursery grounds occurs outside the protected areas. Therefore, recognition of these sites and their associated geographic/oceanic attributes provides clear targets for optimizing largehead hairtail conservation efforts in the East China Sea. We suggested that the eastern and southern areas of TCZ should be included in conservation planning for an effective management within a network of marine protected areas.

The semidiurnal internal tides (ITs) on the continental slope of the southeastern East China Sea (ECS) exhibited abrupt enhancement in November of 2017. This enhancement resulted from the intensification of the coherent semidiurnal ITs. Coherent and incoherent semidiurnal ITs had a comparative energy contribution in October; however, coherent semidiurnal ITs dominated with a variance contribution of 90% in November. The variance contribution of vertical modes of the semidiurnal ITs varied between October and November, and the mode with most variance contribution changed from the second mode to the first mode. Altimeter data and the observed background currents indicated that the Kuroshio mainstream meandered and abruptly intruded into the ECS in November. The upper layer background currents were significantly related to the kinetic energy of the semidiurnal ITs, and the correlation coefficient between them reached 0.81. The frequent occurrences of the Kuroshio intrusion have suggested that the ITs in the ECS are susceptible to the modulation of the Kuroshio current. Numerical modeling and predication of ITs should consider the meander of the Kuroshio mainstream.