causal ordering
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AbstractThe brain continuously coordinates skeletomuscular movements with internal physiological states like arousal, but how is this coordination achieved? One possibility is that brain simply reacts to changes in external and/or internal signals. Another possibility is that it is actively coordinating both external and internal activities. We used functional ultrasound imaging to capture a large medial section of the brain, including multiple cortical and subcortical areas, in marmoset monkeys while monitoring their spontaneous movements and cardiac activity. By analyzing the causal ordering of these different time-series, we found that information flowing from the brain to movements and heart rate fluctuations were significantly greater than in the opposite direction. The brain areas involved in this external versus internal coordination were spatially distinct but also extensively interconnected. Temporally, the brain alternated between network states for this regulation. These findings suggest that the brain’s dynamics actively and efficiently coordinate motor behavior with internal physiology.

The autoregressive model is a useful tool to analyze longitudinal data. It is particularly suitable for gerontological research as autoregressive models can be used to establish the causal relationship within a single variable over time as well as the causal ordering between two or more variables (e.g., physical health and psychological well-being) over time through bivariate autoregressive cross-lagged or contemporaneous models. Specifically, bivariate autoregressive models can explore the cross-lagged effects between two variables over time to determine the proper causal ordering between these variables. The advantage of analyzing cross-lagged effects is to test for the strength of prediction between two variables controlling for each variable's previous time score as well as the autoregressive component of the model. Bivariate autoregressive contemporaneous models can also be used to determine causal ordering within the same time point when compared to cross-lagged effects. Since the technique uses structural equation modeling, models are also adjusted for measurement error. This paper will present an introduction to setting up models and a step-by-step approach to analyzing univariate simplex autoregressive models, bivariate autoregressive cross-lagged models, and bivariate autoregressive contemporaneous models.

This article deals with the role of time in causal models in the social sciences. The aim is to underline the importance of time-sensitive causal models, in contrast to time-free models. The relation between time and causality is important, though a complex one, as the debates in the philosophy of science show. In particular, an outstanding issue is whether one can derive causal ordering from time ordering. The article examines how time is taken into account in demography and in economics as examples of social sciences in which considerations about time may diverge. We then present structural causal modeling as a modeling strategy that, while not essentially based on temporal information, can incorporate it in a more or less explicit way. In particular, we argue that temporal information is useful to the extent that it is placed in a correct causal structure, thus further corroborating the causal mechanism or generative process explaining the phenomenon under consideration. Despite the fact that the causal ordering of variables is more relevant than the temporal order for explanatory purposes, in establishing causal ordering the researcher should nevertheless take into account the time-patterns of causes and effects, as these are often episodes rather than single events. For this reason in particular, it is time to put time at the core of our causal models.

The paper describes a model of subjective goal-oriented semantics extending standard "view-from-nowhere" approach. Generalization is achieved by using a spherical vector structure essentially supplementing the classical bit with circular dimension, organizing contexts according to their subjective causal ordering. This structure, known in quantum theory as qubit, is shown to be universal representation of contextual-situated meaning at the core of human cognition. Subjective semantic dimension, inferred from fundamental oscillation dynamics, is discretized to six process-stage prototypes expressed in common language. Predicted process-semantic map of natural language terms is confirmed by the open-source word2vec data.

Agent-based social simulations are typically described in imperative form. While this facilitates implementation as computer programs, it makes implicit the different assumptions made, both about the functional form and the causal ordering involved. As a solution to the problem, a probabilistic graphical model, Action Network (AN), is proposed in this paper for social simulation. Simulation variables are represented by nodes, and causal links by edges. An Action Table is associated with each node, describing incremental probabilistic actions to be performed in response to fuzzy parental states. AN offers a graphical causal model that captures the dynamics of a social process. Details of the formalism are presented along with illustrative examples. Software that implements the formalism is available at http://actionnetwork.epizy.com .

Key to understanding gender inequality in families, the time availability hypothesis implies that one’s time in paid work negatively affects one’s time in unpaid housework. Although dozens of studies have demonstrated an association between husbands’ and wives’ time in the paid labor force and their performance of housework, most suffer from numerous limitations, especially the use of unidirectional modeling and cross-sectional data. This is problematic since these methods cannot assess causal directionality and since human capital theory suggests that housework responsibilities affect time in paid work. Using structural equation modeling and two stage least squares regression—two methods that can help parse causal ordering—and data from the 1987–88 and 1992–94 waves of the U.S. National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH) this study finds no support for the time availability hypothesis regarding the association between paid work hours and unpaid housework. Consistent with human capital theory, husbands’ housework time affects their own time in paid work. No association is found among wives.