Global Market Sentiment
Global Market Sentiment
Global Market Sentiment
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TOPIC
About the survey Executive summary Respondent profile Economic outlook for 2012 Local and Global market outlook for 2012 Asset class returns in 2012 Local employment opportunities for investment professionals in 2012 Global debt and credit crisis outlook Sentiments on sovereign debt crisis Lasting impact of the credit crisis Market integrity outlook Outlook on integrity of global capital markets Ethical issues facing local and global markets Most needed regulatory or industry action Capital market risks Risks to global and local capital markets in 2012 Companies with increased cash on balance sheets Questions ?
PAGE
3 4-5 6 7-14
15-19
20-26
27-32
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MARKET INTELLIGENCE
METHODOLOGY An online survey was conducted from 2-11 November 2011. 58,385 members globally were invited to participate in the survey; 2,726 responded, for an overall response rate of 4.67% and a margin of error of 1.85%. Aggregate results were re-weighted to reflect the actual geographic distribution of CFA Institute members.
Note: Graphs and charts may not add to 100% due to rounding.
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Executive Summary
Pessimism mounts over the prospects for improved integrity of capital markets. Over three-quarters of survey respondents see no prospect of improved integrity in the markets in 2012, despite significant regulatory reform efforts globally. It is difficult to imagine strong market performance unless faith can be restored in the fairness of markets for all participants. 22% of those surveyed think the integrity of global capital markets will be worse in the coming year (13% felt this way the previous year), while 22% feel it will be better (32% felt it would be better in previous survey). Pg.21 The lack of visible progress in improving global capability to detect and mitigate systemic risks is weighing heavily on members. 38% of members globally see improved regulation and oversight of global systemic risk as being the most needed regulatory/industry action in 2012, as compared to only 23% in 2011. Slow starts at the national policy level and lack of progress in global coordination of systemic risk oversight are being outpaced by investor concerns about the potential for future systemic disruption. Pg.28 Equities are expected to underperform other asset classes. 59% of respondents globally predict that asset classes other than equities will be top performers in 2012. U.S. respondents are outliers, with a majority predicting global equity markets to be top performers. Weak economic conditions and the overhang of perceived systemic risks may contribute to poor expected returns for risk assets like equities. Pg.11
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Executive Summary
A Glimmer? - There are hints of improved market confidence and trust. Most respondents feel that the impact of the global financial crisis on market trust and confidence will persist for another 3-5 years, similar to the sentiment expressed last year. But only 25% predict continued fallout beyond 5 years, down modestly from 32% who expressed that view last year. Pg.18 The BRICs are an island of optimism over local economic prospects, while Europe is largely negative on economic prospects in 2012. Local respondents in BRIC countries (especially in Brazil, India, and also in Australia whose economy is largely tied to the BRICs through commodities) overwhelmingly predict economic expansion in their home markets in 2012. The outlook is much different in Europe, where 85% or more of local respondents in key countries (France, UK, Switzerland) see no prospect of economic growth in the coming year. Pg.9 The Sovereign Debt Crisis is likely to continue. Three-quarters of respondents see no improvement in the current sovereign crisis in 2012. Sentiment is fairly uniform across the globe in this respect. Pg.16
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
RESPONDENT PROFILE
EMEA Europe, Middle-East and Africa AMER North and South America APAC Asia Pacific
Region* Years with CFA charter
16-20 years 3% 11-15 years 9% 6-10 years 19% AMER 33% > 20 years 3%
EMEA 42%
APAC 25%
*Distribution of actual respondents. Aggregate results were reweighted to reflect the actual geographic distribution of CFA Institute members.
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MARKET INTELLIGENCE
42%
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Contract
Stay roughly the same 17% 40% 2% 11% 9% 12% 44% 40% 10% 24% 11% 8% 51% 51% 13% 24% 33% 17% 21% 23% 42% 44% 36% 40% 43% 29% 16%
AMER
53%
EMEA
APAC
Note: GCC includes aggregate of countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates)
Note: Latin America includes aggregate of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean.
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
AMER
EMEA
APAC
10
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Equities
Precious Metals
Commodities
Bonds
Cash
*Data represents proportion of members ranking the asset class as likely to have the highest expected return in 2012.
11
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
AMER
EMEA
APAC
*Data represents proportion of members ranking the asset class as likely to have the highest expected return in 2012.
12
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Global
AMER
APAC
EMEA
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
AMER
EMEA
RUSSIA S. AFRICA SWITZ. UK AUSTRALIA CHINA HONG KONG INDIA JAPAN SINGAPORE
APAC
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
26%
26%
23%
26%
52%
52%
55%
50%
Global
AMER
APAC
EMEA
Member sentiments on the sovereign debt crisis are similar across regions. 52% of members expect the global debt crisis to get worse in 2012.
16
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
AMER
CANADA LATIN AMERICA USA FRANCE GCC GERMANY RUSSIA S. AFRICA SWITZERLAND UK AUSTRALIA CHINA HK
EMEA
APAC
17
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
49%
32%
34% 27%
Global
AMER 2011
APAC
EMEA
Global
AMER 2012
APAC
EMEA
18
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
AMER
EMEA
APAC
19
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
22%
21%
23%
24%
55%
56%
48%
32%
32%
37%
31%
22% Global
26%
23% EMEA
Global
AMER 2011
APAC
EMEA
APAC
21
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Global Market*
The most serious issue facing global markets for 2012 is mis-selling of products by financial advisers followed closely by derivatives. mis-selling of products by financial advisers and Investment management have increased in importance the most since 2011.
Local Markets
2011 26% 22% 20% 16%16% 13% 16% 15% 18% 13% 15% 10% 2012 21% 16% 20% 15% 12%
Global Markets
2011 23% 20% 2012
Financial Advisers
Financial Reporting
Investment Management
Financial Advisers
Financial Reporting
Investment Management
Represents the % of memb ers ranking #1 (most serious) ethical issue in local/glob al markets.
22
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
38% 36% 38% 43% 23% 21% 26% 29% 31% 34% 23% 21%
2011
2012
*Other (Improved corporate governance practices, Improved auditing practice and standards, Other)
23
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
AMER
26%
EMEA
APAC
24
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
AMER
26%
EMEA
APAC
25
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
14%
AMER
3%
EMEA
APAC
26
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Global
36%
30%
21%
5%
3% 3%
AMER
35%
28%
24%
5%
4%
4%
APAC
36%
35%
19%
4% 2%2%
EMEA
37%
29%
21%
6%
4%
3%
All
14%
45%
17%
13%
6%
4%
AMER
13%
49%
11%
13%
6%
4%
APAC
12%
40%
20%
13%
10%
5%
EMEA
15%
44%
19%
4%
3%
28
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
BRAZIL
0%
AMER
26%
EMEA
54%
20% 24%
35%
27%
33% 27%
APAC
22%
29
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
17%
14%
BRAZIL
17%
6% 57%
25%
17% 3% 9% 9% 5%
AMER
14% 17%
7% 5%
15%
15% 8%
0% 5% 0% 4% 8% 0% 6%
19% 7%
5%
EMEA
1% 2%
53%
16%
2%
22%
11% 25%
2% 21%
6% 4% 4% 4% 5% 3%
APAC
15%
4% 50%
35% 12% 4%
SINGAPORE 2%
18%
5%
30
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
33%
3% 2%
3% 3% 2% 2% No opinion
Retain the cash for Retain the cash to appropriate investment "self-fund" in light of opportunities the uncertain credit environment
Other
31
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
AMER
7% 9%
EMEA
3%3% 13% 8% 5% 2% 10% 14% 8% 5% 11% 3% 4% 11% 21% 6% 0% 9% 26% 7% 1% 13% 13% 3% 10% 11% 15% 23% 18% 21% 12% 5% 3% 10% 2% 4% 3% 8% 2% 6% 8% 2% 18%
APAC
32
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
QUESTIONS?
CONTACT
33
MARKET INTELLIGENCE